• Breaking News

    Tuesday, September 14, 2021

    Home Unlabelled Value Investing Vanguard Adding Active Funds

    Value Investing Vanguard Adding Active Funds

    September 14, 2021

    Value Investing Vanguard Adding Active Funds

    Vanguard Adding Active Funds

    Posted: 13 Sep 2021 07:21 PM PDT

    Modern Financial History Begins in 1998

    Posted: 13 Sep 2021 04:36 AM PDT

    SFL Q2 FORECAST RETROSPECTIVE

    Posted: 13 Sep 2021 12:30 PM PDT

    This post analyzes the differences between announced results of SFL Q2 2021 earnings and the forecast I released roughly a month prior to the earnings announcement. In this document I compare the results and attribute causes to discrepancies between the forecast model and actual results.

    SUMMARY

    A large number of non-recurring items negatively impacted nominal earnings, but I expect the majority of these factors to mitigate by the fourth quarter. Recurring earnings were much stronger and that has been reflected in the recent analyst upgrades. The price has increased from $7.21 when the report was first announced on July 13 to $8.27 today, September 13. Earnings were announced on August 18.

    Some weaknesses exist in the model for Capesize, Feeder, PCTC, and Suezmax vessels, and will need to be addressed, in addition to some neglected non-recurring items. My price target is still in place at $12/share, but the anticipated dividend increase has been postponed and may be revisited in Q3 or Q4 earnings.

    QUARTERLY COMPARISON

    Q1 RESULT Q2 ESTIMATE Q2 RESULT ERROR IN ESTIMATES QUARTERLY CHANGE
    Liners 74.4 76.3 75.3 -1.0 +0.9
    Profit Share 2.4 2.3 2.4 +0.1 0.0
    Bulkers 31.9 41.6 39.4 -2.2 +7.5
    Profit Share 0.0 2.7 1.2 -1.5 +1.2
    Tankers 15.3 15.2 14.6 -0.6 -0.7
    Profit Share 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.3
    Rigs 13.3 12.2 12.2 0.0 0.0
    Total Hire 135 145 141.5 -3.5 +6.5
    Nonrecurring Earnings 11.1 5.0 -9.5 -14.5 -20.6
    Recurring Earnings 20.4 30.9 29.0 -1.9 +8.6
    Total Earnings 31.5 35.9 19.5 -16.4 -12.0

    UNPREDICTABLE FACTORS

    • 2M higher General & Administrative costs; non-recurring

      • Higher than expected legal fees incurred for Seadrill lawsuit. Should be reimbursed concluding restructuring.
      • Temporary increase in insurance premiums related to D&O – cause undetermined

    • 1.9M impairment charge against West Taurus; non-recurring

      • Unexpected due to increased scrap rates since previous valuation in Q4 2020

    • 1M higher crewing costs; recurring during COVID

    • 0.8M loss on repurchase of debt; non-recurring

    • Significant miss on predicted earnings for Capesize bulkers on lease to Golden Ocean. Rates were substantially below the lowest estimated rates at any point during the entire quarter.

    PREDICTABLE FACTORS (Avoidable Errors)

    *~900K higher interest costs due to overlap between new bond issue and repayment of maturing notes; non-recurring, but will continue to affect Q3 and Q4.

    *2.8M loss on non-designated derivatives. $100M of non-designated derivatives were not accounted for in the estimates, although designated derivatives were accounted for accurately; non-recurring.

    *Overestimation of charter proceeds related to container-feeder vessels. Both vessels are currently on fixed-rate time charters until the end of 2021 and will not contribute to increased earnings until 2022. These charters are not reflected in SFL backlog.

    *Overestimation of charter proceeds from tanker profit share. Tankers on lease to Frontline do not receive profit share related to fuel savings.

    The third quarter forecast will be released after the end of September. I am happy to answer questions.

    submitted by /u/slipperymagoo
    [link] [comments]

    Sea Ltd, Part 1: Garena - Building a Global Gaming Cash Engine

    Posted: 13 Sep 2021 08:33 AM PDT

    TCI Presentation on Canadian National Railway

    Posted: 13 Sep 2021 08:30 AM PDT

    The Panic Series (Pt. I) - 1792

    Posted: 13 Sep 2021 04:39 AM PDT
    Read more
    at

    No comments:

    Post a Comment