Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Sep 13, 2021 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Sep 13, 2021
- Michael "The Big Short" Burry has activated his twitter again
- Dumb strategies that make money.
- Let’s plan for a crash so, if it happens, we make bank
- What happens the moment FED has no more cash on the balance?
- What Are The Most “Out of Favor” Stocks On Your Watchlist Now?
- Judge (Epic vs Apple) says Apple deserves compensation even with alternative payments
- Is there a strategy to determine when to enter a position on a downturn?
- What to do when I run out of cash and need to buy the dip?
- Michael Burry 13-F Breakdown: STNG (An Undervalued Opportunity in a Cyclical Industry That’s Overcorrecting Supply)
- What Just Happened to AFRM
- Morning Update for Monday, 09/13/21
- Toast POS Directed Share Program
- Is there an ideal 'rate' at which your auto reoccurring buys of indexes should be?
- Toll Brothers
- FBGRX - Fidelity Blue Chip Growth -6.55% - ELI5
- Mutual Funds vs SPY/VTI
- DOCU anyone buying?
- r/Stocks Daily Thread on Meme Stocks Monday - Sep 13, 2021
- Made an IQ option account, realised it was basically a scam, backed out, have some questions.
- Inherited paper stocks?
- Trading Platforms For Europeans
- How likely will insiders sell stock when a lockout period ends?
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Sep 13, 2021 Posted: 13 Sep 2021 02:30 AM PDT These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts. Some helpful links:
If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky.. See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Michael "The Big Short" Burry has activated his twitter again Posted: 13 Sep 2021 10:29 AM PDT Burry keeps making predictions and then nukes his account (deletes all his tweets) when he is wrong. Yesterday he has started tweeting again, posting a few screenshots of old mails from 2005 implying it can take a while (3 years) for his predictions to come true. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Dumb strategies that make money. Posted: 13 Sep 2021 08:35 AM PDT What are some dumb strategies or strategies that seem counter intuitive that actually generates a return. My dumb strategy is when I see a stock tank hard I put money into it as soon as I can. About 80% of the time it regains about 5% - 10% of its value within the next week or two then I sell when I am content with the profits and I move on to the next set of stocks. In the past 6 months I have turned just under 5k into just over 18k. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Let’s plan for a crash so, if it happens, we make bank Posted: 13 Sep 2021 12:05 AM PDT Imagine this. All the doomsday prophets are right, inflation spikes, rates rise, the market tanks, Michael Burry gets filthy rich, and trillions of dollars disappear overnight. We lose a lot of value, but are presented with one of the all-time great buying opportunities. You're bleeding, but have $100,000 in cash. What do you buy? No one can predict a crash or time the market. But it seems to me the only helpful and positive thing we can do with this apocalyptic carry-on is to do what Buffet is doing: keep our portfolio intact, but keep some cash on the side to take advantage of deals if they present themselves. I want to develop a plan, so if it happens I'm ready, I don't panic, and I execute like the the fucking Terminator. Let's try it! What's your plan? What stocks are you watching? APPL? AMZN? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| What happens the moment FED has no more cash on the balance? Posted: 13 Sep 2021 05:53 AM PDT For who didn't follow what's happening with public spending, in this short video by CNBC the problem is briefly explained. On Friday, the balance showed $207 billions, just about 150 less than the month's opening. Keeping this pace, the total balance decreases by about 38 billions per day, meaning that we could reach the zero this week. Sure, on the 15th there will be an increase due to the influx of corporate taxes, but still we won't get to the end of the month. I think this situation is deeply concerning and, considering also the fact that FED members are selling, Burry said what we all know he said and most banks/institutions are screaming, I don't really know how the market is still going up like it's nothing. What are your opinions about that? How are you going to play the following days/weeks? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| What Are The Most “Out of Favor” Stocks On Your Watchlist Now? Posted: 13 Sep 2021 08:23 AM PDT Seeing as reddit is generally WRONG about everything, I figured we should start compiling unpopular tickets for the deep value contrarian plays. No meme stocks preferably. I'm talking stocks that the hivemind here absolutely hates and everyone thinks it's an obvious short or terrible investment. Personally - I'm in small BABA position at 175 and will be loading the truck at $125-130 if it gets there for a multi-year hold [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Judge (Epic vs Apple) says Apple deserves compensation even with alternative payments Posted: 12 Sep 2021 09:31 PM PDT Rogers admittedly finds "no basis" for the specific 30 percent rate, despite Apple hiring a consultant to testify about the value of its patents. (As mentioned previously, the ruling is full of dunks on the expert witnesses.) But she says Apple is still entitled to license that intellectual property for a fee of some sort, and requiring developers to use Apple's payment system "accomplishes this goal in the easiest and most direct manner." Epic's unbundling alternative, meanwhile, would "severely undermine" the system, says the ruling. "Indeed, to the extent Epic Games suggests that Apple receive nothing from in-app purchases made on its platform, such a remedy is inconsistent with prevailing intellectual property law." Even if developers could entirely stop using the IAP system, "Apple could still charge a commission on developers. It would simply be more difficult for Apple to collect that commission," Rogers writes. End of quotes. The judge clearly states that Apple deserves compensation for hosting an App even if payment is made outside the App store. Apple can still charge the 30% commission according to the judge even if alternate payment is used. The App Store clearly states the 30% commission is due regardless if Apples payment system is used or not. The judge said that part of the TOS is legal and enforceable [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Is there a strategy to determine when to enter a position on a downturn? Posted: 13 Sep 2021 09:23 AM PDT I've been hearing about an imminent correction by EOY. Since I can't possibly predict when it'll happen or if it'll happen I want to DCA my way into buying S&P500. S&P500 has been on a downturn the last week. Is there an indicator I could use to know if it's a good time to buy? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| What to do when I run out of cash and need to buy the dip? Posted: 13 Sep 2021 09:55 AM PDT If you wasted all the stacked/stashed cash/fiat buying all the dip, what do you do if something unexpectedly happens to a stock/ or ETF in general and you really want to hop on the dip train, but you clearly do not have resources to buy it? If you cancel/postpone it do you feel bad especially if the discount does not last vary long? What are your strategies? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 13 Sep 2021 12:43 PM PDT COMPANY OVERVIEW Scorpio Tankers, and its subsidiaries, transport refined petroleum products worldwide. They are a product tanker operator meaning they transport refined oil products (e.g. gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene, etc.), as opposed to an oil tanker operator which transports crude oil. As of 8 September, 2021, Scorpio owned, finance leased, or bareboat chartered 131 product tankers, which included 42 Long Range 2 (LR2), 12 Long Range 1 (LR1), 63 Medium Range (MR), and 14 Handymax tankers with an average age of approximately 5.6 years, making it the youngest and most modern fleet in the industry. -- MISPRICING At a current market cap of just under $1B STNG is trading at roughly 50% below its book value. The market has underpriced STNG because of three primary factors:
The first factor, floating storage demand, prevented Scorpio from leveraging its advantage as the youngest ECO product tanker fleet in the industry. The COVID shutdowns caused global demand for oil based products to rapidly decline. Supply outstripped demand and land based storage facilities filled up quickly. The lack of land based storage led to ships being contracted as floating storage, where Scorpio has no advantage because a leaky twenty year old rust bucket with no engine can fill up its tanks and do nothing just as effectively as a brand new ECO tanker. Floating storage demand has prevented Scorpio from realizing its advantage as the youngest ECO product tanker fleet in the world Floating storage demand has been on a steady return to normal throughout 2021, meaning product tankers are returning to their routes. Scorpio will leverage its industry advantages as product tanker demand increases in 2022 and 2023, but the market hasn't priced this in yet. -- FINANCIAL HEALTH SUMMARY PROS
CONS
CONCERNS
This isn't a detailed financial analysis. All we need to know for this thesis is that Scorpio has enough assets to continue operations until market demand increases and Scorpio can leverage its advantages as the youngest ECO product tanker fleet operator. -- THE MODERN FLEET ADVANTAGE Fuel Cost Advantage On 2 January 2020, just before COVID strangled world economies, new regulations limiting sulphur content in ship fuel oil came into force. This new regulation limited all ships without exhaust scrubbers to only use Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) containing 0.5% or less sulphur by mass as opposed to High Sulfur Fuel Oil (HSFO) containing 3.5% sulphur by mass. This nearly doubled the cost spread between VLSFO and HFSO in January 2020. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and the collapse in oil price quickly narrowed the spread. The price of VLSFO was nearly double the price of HSFO prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and is still around $100 more expensive in September 2021. Source: Ship & Bunker The VLSFO/HSFO spread quickly narrowed in January 2020 but has maintained an average spread of about $100 per metric ton (mt) in 2020 and 2021. This means ships with scrubbers still have about a 17% fuel cost advantage over ships without them, and that advantage is likely to increase with growth in shipping demand (e.g. economies opening back up) or an increase in oil price (e.g. increased oil demand and/or increased inflation). So how much advantage does STNG have compared to other product tanker fleets?
A lot Scorpio also benefits from having a 100% ECO product tanker fleet. ECO tankers are more fuel efficient through the use of modern engines, improved hull designs, and other efficiency improvements. While Scorpio's fleet is 100% ECO the majority of the global fleet is not. This enables Scorpio tankers to leverage additional fuel cost savings beyond the global fleet average. The combination of high scrubber installations in a modern ECO fleet will be a major factor in Scorpio's pricing advantage as shipping demand increases. Scorpio operates a 100% ECO fleet while the industry as a whole is well below 50%. Source: Scorpio Tankers Inc Company Presentation September 2021 -- Fleet Age Advantage Scorpio will have a significant pricing advantage in the coming years due to the age of its fleet. According to Euronav, the overall life of a tanker vessel is 20-25 years. A quarter of the global fleet will be over 20 years old within the next 15 months. More importantly for Scorpio, some product ship charterers consider it too risky to contract ships older than 15 years. 38% of the current global product tanker fleet (863 vessels) is over 15 years old, and 81% of the current global fleet (1,819 vessels) will be over 15 years old within the next five years, with the majority hitting this mark by EOY 2024. Over 80% of the current global product tanker fleet will be over 15 years old in 2026 The average Scorpio tanker is 5.6 years old and will not reach 15 years old until 2030. This information is slightly outdated as the BW/Hafnia merger now operates a 203 vessel fleet, but Scorpio's fleet is still younger. Source: Scorpio Tankers Inc Company Presentation September 2021 But won't other operators just build more ships to replace their aging fleet? Right now the answer is 'No'. -- Tanker Supply is Shrinking Low daily tanker rates, high construction costs, and high scrap metal returns are driving down tanker supply, and may lead to a significant industry over correction that will drive daily rates higher. Product tankers are being demolished at a record pace and very few new ones are being built to fill the hole they're leaving in the tanker supply. Product tanker daily rates are below operating costs, and scrap metal prices are sky high. This combination makes it very tempting to pocket $8M by scrapping a 20 year old fully depreciated tanker whose original cost was $35M. Returns for scrapping old tankers are the highest they have been in years This combination of low daily rates, aging fleets, higher fuel costs due to regulations, and record prices for scrap metal is contributing to record levels of Product Tanker Scrapping. Orders to construct new ships are also at all-time lows. Orders for new product tankers are at near record lows Current orders will replace 6.7% of fleet capacity while an average of over 8% of the global fleet will become 15 years old each year over the next five years. Newbuilds simply aren't replacing the lost capacity, and they're definitely not replacing capacity for charters of ships less than 15 years old. MR vessels, the same class seeing record demolitions, are not being replaced fast enough to keep up with the number of ships being scrapped Product Tanker newbuild orders also aren't likely to increase soon due to the low daily rates combined with the rising cost in ship construction. It is simply too risky to order new vessel construction in this environment. 30% of vessel construction cost is steel and steel prices have dramatically increased in 2H2021 -- BEAR CASE
-- TL;DR: Scorpio's investment in a 100% ECO fleet since 2015, and use of the 2020 lull to install more scrubbers, has positioned the company to dominate future product tanker route pricing as inflation raises oil costs and oil product demand rises in 2022 and beyond. At 50% of book value STNG is an excellent value with a reasonable margin of safety due to the ability to continue to operate at a loss on current assets and cashflow. The value increases significantly if inflation is here to stay. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 13 Sep 2021 06:34 AM PDT So what just happened to AFRM no more than 2 minutes before and after opening? I was watching it pre-open and it dropped about $5 then it suddenly plunged to a more than $10 loss. I initially set a trailing stop but as soon as I saw it drop I set a market order. I lost about $60 on the day but I'm glad I didn't lose too much on it in total. Is it just the volatility of the stock? Do you guys still think it's a buy? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Morning Update for Monday, 09/13/21 Posted: 13 Sep 2021 05:42 AM PDT Good morning everyone, I hope you had a nice weekend. Let's start the week off right! This list is geared towards day trading. With the momentum watchlist especially, I am typically in and out very quickly, only occasionally longer than a couple minutes, usually faster scalps. Always have a plan when you enter a trade (for profit taking and for taking a loss), and use proper risk management for your account. Main Watchlist: Gapping UP:
Gapping DOWN:
Market Outlook: Stocks are looking to open higher after another choppy trading session on Friday. Fears over regulatory scrutiny in China continue, as the Financial Times reported that Beijing was looking to break up financial tech company Alipay. BABA and other Chinese stocks are trading lower in premarket, as a result. We should be getting more inflation numbers in this week, and this will be important to monitor, as it could affect how/when the Fed steps in. The August consumer price index (CPI) should be reported on Tuesday. We have been seeing some supply chain issues around the world, and this will likely apply upwards pressure on inflation numbers, at least in the short-term. Retail sales are expected to drop once again, we'll see if they're in line with analyst estimates. I think we could see some more volatility in the coming days. SPY is trading right around 448, and we could be in for another choppiness today. If we can't hold up over 448 support, we could see some more selling off. DIA is trading a bit under 349. 348 will be a support level to watch, but we could hold up after a bounce off the SMA(100) in Friday's trading. I'll be watching price action around that level. QQQ is trading a bit over 378 and is hovering between support and resistance. If we continue to see weakness, it could test 375 as support. If it sees strength, it could test 380 as resistance. Gold is trading flat, silver is slightly in the red, and crude oil is up and back over $70/barrel. B**coin saw some more weakness over the weekend and is currently trading around 44,700. Things are looking bearish at the moment, but that could always change. Cr**to-related stocks are trading a bit lower in premarket trading. Airlines and cruise stocks saw choppy sessions on Friday, and are looking bearish unless we see some strength in the near future. Meme stocks are up a bit in premarket trading, worth keeping an eye on. AMC's daily chart in particular looks good, I'll be watching for more strength. Remember to use proper risk management, by making sure you size appropriately for your account and have a plan for every trade you enter (both for taking profits and cutting losses). Happy trading everyone :) [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Toast POS Directed Share Program Posted: 13 Sep 2021 07:56 AM PDT I've been invited to purchase shares of Toast, Inc at the IPO price without having to pay a brokerage commission. Morgan Stanley, the underwriter, is facilitating the DSP. The proposed max offering price is $33.00 per share. I'm just wondering, for those familiar with Toast POS, what your opinion is of the company from an investment perspective at the proposed price? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Is there an ideal 'rate' at which your auto reoccurring buys of indexes should be? Posted: 13 Sep 2021 08:10 AM PDT Let's say you want to put $500 into VTI every month and hold it for years - are there any studies which show if it would be best to invest it lump sum at the beginning of every month, or would it be best to spread it out daily, weekly, bi-weekly, etc? I know the common saying is time in the market beats timing the market, but what is your ideal auto-buy schedule? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 13 Sep 2021 10:19 AM PDT Some of the market analysts are rating TOL a buy calling it a momentum stock. I'm on TD Ameritrade and looking through the research provided its a good time to buy. What are you thoughts on this? Would this be a long term or short term investment? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| FBGRX - Fidelity Blue Chip Growth -6.55% - ELI5 Posted: 13 Sep 2021 11:28 AM PDT ELI5 - I am invested heavily into FBGRX which dropped 6-7 points in the past few days and I cannot determine why when everything else in the same category only fell 2 points e.g. QQQ. I am an idiot btw. Thanks in advance. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 13 Sep 2021 01:36 PM PDT What are your opinions on mutual funds compared to regular market funds? Is there mutual funds that consistently beat the market? After expenses, does it still make sense to choose mutual funds over other market tracking funds? Curious because it seems that the top net worth people choose mutual funds over throwing it under SPY/VTI/etc… even if it means paying a fee. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 13 Sep 2021 09:47 AM PDT Hi guys, DOCU has been on my radar for a while and I finally bought 200 shares earlier this morning. This is not a stock often talked about here and I am wondering why. Anyone else is looking at DOCU? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| r/Stocks Daily Thread on Meme Stocks Monday - Sep 13, 2021 Posted: 13 Sep 2021 04:00 AM PDT The meme stock scheduled posts will run Mon to Fri and won't be a sticky; you're probably seeing this because automod sent you here or you woke up early Wall St time; good morning! Welcome traders who just can't help them selves discuss the same exact stock that's been discussed 100s of times a day. I get it, you want to talk about what's popular, what's hot, and that 1.. single.. stock you like.. well here you go! Some helpful links just for you:
An important message from our mod u/TCGYT regarding meme stocks. Lastly if you need professional help:
[link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Made an IQ option account, realised it was basically a scam, backed out, have some questions. Posted: 13 Sep 2021 01:06 PM PDT So my questions are: [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 13 Sep 2021 07:17 AM PDT My MiL was left a fair bit of stock ($GE) by my late FiL when he passed some years ago. These shares were purchased throughout the 70s to 90s and are all on paper certificates, which my MiL is in possession of. She is trying to figure out how to transfer shares to her children's names, and to cash some out. My wife and I (and her siblings) are pretty financially literate but dealing with paper certificates of share ownership is a far cry from our 401ks, IRAs, etc. To top it off, my sweet MiL is from a different culture and generation and wilfully ignorant about financial record keeping, or anything related. The only records we seem to have are these original fancy looking certificates. She said she periodically gets mail from GE about the stocks, but doesn't keep the mail and doesn't know it says. We have no idea what type of brokerage or account these shares are held in or anything like that. I don't think my FiL ever worked for GE so he likely just purchased them through a regular brokerage account at various points over the years rather than an employee purchase plan or anything like that. What type of tax liability are we looking at if my my wife is given these by her mother? We want to just sell the stock and use the cash to help fix up mom's house. How do we go about figuring out how many shares are owned and what type of account they're in? Anybody ever navigated a situation like this? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Trading Platforms For Europeans Posted: 13 Sep 2021 05:36 AM PDT So, I searched for information about most reputable, reliable brokers from many sources and here is my list in no particular order:
What do you think about these platforms? This post tries to help beginners to choose their future platform. Also I'm using Interactive Brokers. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| How likely will insiders sell stock when a lockout period ends? Posted: 13 Sep 2021 07:40 AM PDT How likely will insiders sell stock when a lockout period ends? So next month Virgin Galactic's lockout period will end and insiders are allowed to sell shares. virgin galactic lockout period ends october 2021 Generally speaking how common is it for insiders to sell shares after a lockout period ends? Should shareholders in SPCE be worried ? [link] [comments]  |
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