Stocks - Why is having "liquidity" in markets considered important enough to give "market makers" special privileges (such as naked shorting)? |
- Why is having "liquidity" in markets considered important enough to give "market makers" special privileges (such as naked shorting)?
- Amazon and Facebook to fall under new G7 tax rules - Yellen
- CLOV discussion
- 25 opening a ROTH IRA
- What's your strategy for high inflation
- 25 YO, What Should Be My First Move
- Biogen FTA announcement Alzheimer’s disease drug
- Thoughts on BlackRock (BLK)?
- Personal question on Elon Musk
- The Weekly DD - Clover Health (CLOV): Moon or Bust? (Full DD)
- What kind of stocks should a 40 year old employed person be investing in?
- How will the new SEC, DTCC, OCC rules affect non meme stock investors and traders?
- At what point does correlation doesn’t equal causation stop applying?
- Shift technologies - An online used car sales company
- through my job instead of a pension plan they give RRSP to sunlife first time I've looked and have questions
- How do you find a fair price to buy a stock at as long term investor?
- Where should i learn qualitative and quantitive analysis from?
- Clarification Regarding 401a/403b & IRA Account Contribution Limits
- Question about stocks and the money supply
- Will Dexcom (DXCM) be a big winner in the continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) market?
- AMZN or GOOGL buy one share
- If someone looses 10k the year before and makes 10k next year do they have to pay taxes on that 10k or is it minesed out
| Posted: 06 Jun 2021 12:56 AM PDT I've been learning more about how the stock market works and I'm amazed that naked shorting legal, and that financial firms have mechanisms which permit it to happen. I hear that "market makers" have special privileges to naked short sell, and these privileges exist in order to "provide liquidity". Why is providing liquidity considered to be a good thing? In my mind, in an illiquid market, there might be a massive spread between the bid and ask and (without market makers able to nakedly short sell) this might mean that no trade occurs for a long time until one side cracks and changes their price to close the spread. But... why would that be a bad thing? So there's a big spread for a while and no trading occurs? So what? What's the problem? Since naked shorting is so transparently an opportunity for market manipulation and fraud, there must be some rationale for why it exists, right? What's the worst that could happen if market makers were not able to nakedly short? [link] [comments]  |
| Amazon and Facebook to fall under new G7 tax rules - Yellen Posted: 05 Jun 2021 07:27 PM PDT 'Both Amazon (AMZN.O) and Facebook (FB.O) will fall under new proposals for a global minimum corporation tax agreed by the Group of Seven on Saturday, United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said. Asked whether the two companies would be covered by the proposal, Yellen said: "It will include large profitable firms and those firms, I believe, will qualify by almost any definition." The joint statement by G7 finance ministers earlier on Saturday said it would tackle tax avoidance by "the largest and most profitable multinational enterprises". Amazon has lower profit margins than most other tech companies, and European countries had been concerned it would escape extra taxation under initial U.S. proposals to the G7.' Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/yellen-urges-g7-nations-pursue-sustainable-growth-2021-06-05/ [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Jun 2021 09:22 AM PDT I am going to try and give a full picture of what is going on with CLOV and why it may or may not be a buy right now. There are pros/cons and risks/benefits to both sides of the argument. First lets start with the possible positive catalysts on the horizons. CLOV is being added to two significant indexes including the MSCI global small cap index and the russell 3000. There is I believe misinformation and debate on when and how this will effect the price going forward, particularly with the timing of the russell 3000 addition. The moral of the story is that ETFs tracking both indexes will have to rebalance their portfolios at some point and buy some shares of CLOV which will provide further upward momentum for the stock. The current argument is whether these ETFs will be purchased before or after the June 25th addition ( I believe the rebalancing and purchasing of shares would be after June 25th). Now lets talk about the squoze Most up to date short information I have found is - short interest is $417M 46.67M shares shorted - 41.38% SI% of Float 29.27% S3 SI% Float 1.42% fee. - Shares shorted up +1.82M shares, worth $16M, +4.1%, last week. Shorts up +$88M in 2021 mark-to-market profits; down -$3 million on today's +0.7% move. You might look at that and say Wow why on earth hasn't this squoze yet? Because…. $CLOV shorts are still up $3 million in mark-to-market profits for the month and up $90 million for the year. Even though they are down big over the last week, shorts won't cover in size (short squeeze) until they are deep in the red. Source : Ihor Dusaniwsky from S3 partners analytics This is one of the criticisms of CLOV vs AMC/GME is that shorts are still sitting pretty laughing their heads off massively in the green. This really has no squeeze potential until it surpasses the $12-13 range. Is this the most shorted stock in the market right now? Possibly. This and WKHS are the top shorted stocks based on short float % and there is definitely a ton of potential here being locked down. It won't see that potential until some catalyst pushes the shorts into the red. As a squeeze play I wouldn't see the point in buying in till it starts the battle over that key $12-13 range which is when the original short attack happened. CLOV as a company Clov is a company that has had consistent growth in members, revenue, and is debt free but here is why some may not think that is enough. These are comments taken from CLOVs last earnings.
The part that is most controversal is the line about Medicare Direct Contracting program. Hindencuck and other shorters are quick to point out that Clover mislead investors by stating they already HAD 200,000 lives under contract in this program. However, this is overall a very small portion of their revenue as highlighted in the third section. What matters most is Medicare Advantage membership growth which has been steadily increasing year after year. My hesitation is that these increases are still fairly insignificant on the grand medicare stage and that while CLOV has been granted access in other states, it is still significantly limited geographically in where they operate with I believe most of their members only in New Jersey. They have "access" to many other states and counties but really haven't made any footprint into these areas. They have consistent growth, but with the amount of market available to them I believe it should be better. Until these numbers have a dramatic increase it limits investor interest and catalysts against the current short interests. Conclusion This company has some positive catalysts with the index additions and consistent albeit slower than I would like growth/revenue increases. It also has massive squeeze potential, but it has a heavy heavy battle ahead to get there. The potential is there, but it currently needs a lot of help and YOLO apes to get it to $13 to make things go BOOM. Disclaimer : 16k share owner and small amount of $30 yolo calls. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Jun 2021 07:09 AM PDT Hello i just opened a ROTH IRA and I'm going to put in $6,000 and was thinking to split it between QQQ, VTI and SPY. Does this look okay? Should I drop/change anything? And what percentages of each would you do? [link] [comments]  |
| What's your strategy for high inflation Posted: 06 Jun 2021 09:12 AM PDT As you may know there are rumors on having high inflation towards the end of the year or next year. What's your strategy in case of high inflation? What kind of investment decisions are you going to make? [link] [comments]  |
| 25 YO, What Should Be My First Move Posted: 06 Jun 2021 09:57 AM PDT Currently been thinking about my future more and more. Trying to understand more and more each day and really figure out a financial growth plan. Anyone have suggestions to a young newbie on where I should begin? [link] [comments]  |
| Biogen FTA announcement Alzheimer’s disease drug Posted: 06 Jun 2021 02:17 PM PDT FDA will announce a decision on Biogen's treatment for Alzheimer's disease. I hope it's approved for those the drug could help and as a stock holder, an approval could mean a 40% increase in the stock tomorrow. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Jun 2021 09:22 AM PDT Any thoughts on BlackRock (BLK) as a long term pick? Currently trading at ~$886 - close to ATH. They're of course the world's largest asset management firm owning iShares and Aladdin. Also pays a decent dividend. A potential issue I'm seeing is that a majority of their revenue comes from investment advisory and admin fees - race to the bottom as time goes on. [link] [comments]  |
| Personal question on Elon Musk Posted: 06 Jun 2021 01:27 PM PDT Mods, delete if not allowed, please. So, it feels to me like Musk is becoming quite a polarizing player in both the stock and c-word market. My question is those that dislike him do you feel it's at all political? It feels to me like a politically conservative investor would choose not to invest in anything he touches. Inversely, I would imagine most politically liberal investors tend to avoid anything to do with Cathie Wood. Just a Sunday thought. Everyone play nice or I'll kick you out of the sand box. [link] [comments]  |
| The Weekly DD - Clover Health (CLOV): Moon or Bust? (Full DD) Posted: 06 Jun 2021 10:39 AM PDT Another healthcare company? CLOV is a US health insurance company currently specialized in offering Medicare Advantage plans to elderly Americans. As an elderly American seeking healthcare insurance, one of the very first choices presented is whether to go with the federally run Medicare or the privately provided Medicare Advantage (still federally funded though). The difference is as follows:
Medicare Advantage usually makes the process more streamlined and easier. Depending on the plan, it may even be cheaper than Medicare. However, the drawback is a much narrower physician network that's usually based around a local geography. Thus, if you travel anywhere else, it will be difficult to find in-network physicians for care. CLOV attempts to innovate in this space with their software platform, Clover Assistant. This is a platform which synthesizes all the data available to healthcare insurance providers to provide better patient outcomes. They do this through several features:
By doing this, they hope to achieve better early detection and preventative care within their customers which leads to less emergency room visits, less unplanned procedures and prescriptions, and less heart ache (quite literally). All this equates to less unplanned costs for CLOV and more revenue from their insurance policies. With Medicare advantage plans, the government provides a certain pot of money for covering customer Medicare benefits with certain incentives built in. If all incentives are met and no additional services are needed, then the insurance provider pockets all the remaining money as profit. That's why CLOV is so focused on decreasing these unplanned costs (and of course, for the people). Healthcare - Lacks in appeal Medicare is currently only available to those over 65 (though there are proposed regulations to change this which we'll review later). This is CLOV's – and other Medicare Advantage providers' – target demographic. By 2040, adults in the US over the age of 65 is expected to more than double, reaching 80 million. Adults age 85+ is expected to quadruple. Moreover, Americans are living longer which means that Medicare will need to cover more for a longer period. In 2000, the average American male, upon turning 62, could expect to live 19 years longer. In 2040, it is estimated that they will live 22 years longer. This estimate is even higher for females. This necessitates an expansion of Medicare and Medicare Advantage providers to support America's aging population. We can see this rapid growth within the national health expenditure (NHE) data that the government releases. In 2019, NHE grew by 4.6% to $3.8T. By 2028, it is expected to grow to $6.2T. The largest expenditure for government spending in 2019 was in private health insurance spending which grew 3.7% to $1.2T (31% of total NHE). If current spending ratios hold, the 2028 expected spend on private health insurance will be $1.92T. Beyond that, enrollment in Medicare Advantage plans has been growing at faster rate every year since 2005. In 2020, nearly 40% of all Medicare beneficiaries were on a Medicare Advantage plan. Currently, this industry is dominated by a small number of players with three firms making up over 50% of all Medicare Advantage plan offerings.
Furthermore, competition is fierce within this space with premiums on plans slowly declining since 2015. Medicare Advantage plans has become increasingly popular from standard Medicare plans. This trend is observed in every state in the US. The increasing popularity of Medicare Advantage plans is most pronounced in for-profit plans which now account for 71% of all enrollees in 2021. Market emergent players (venture-backed players) accounted for ~240,000 enrollees (~1% of the national enrollees) which is the largest amount it has ever accounted for. In general, healthcare is growing rapidly to keep pace with US' aging population. Medicare Advantage specifically is growing even faster as it remains highly competitive compared to Medicare. However, as big players wrestle for market share, premiums decline, and profits become more difficult to capture. It is a lucrative market for share but crowded and highly competitive. Small fish, big sea CLOV is attempting to carve a piece of this market out for themselves. They are a smaller local provider operating in 8 states: Arizona, Georgia, Mississippi, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. CLOV is one of the nation's fastest growing insurers capturing ~50% of the net increase in membership across its established markets over the previous three years. They currently serve more than 57,000 members across 34 counties. However, is this growth scalable? Proponents of CLOV believe they can do this. And certainly CLOV is tripling its footprint, expanding out to 74 new counties. Whether this translates to similar levels of growth within these counties is yet to be seen. While capturing 50% of the growth within a county is impressive, they are operating only with a network of less than 60,000 members. Remember, UnitedHealth Group serves over 6M members. I can't conclude one way or another if this growth is scalable, but certainly it will become harder and more competitive to scale as they continue growing. They're primary moat is in Clover Assistant. However, AI in healthcare is not a new concept. In fact 95% of health care executes are looking to hire business and analytics staff with experience developing AI. 59% of these executives expect a positive return on the investments they have already made in AI. Whereas the scope of their AI may be different than CLOV's, it is hard to argue that CLOV will be able to maintain a moat when they have access to the same data and technology as their competitors (and even less of it since they have less than 60,000 members). Furthermore, Hindenberg Research released a damning short report for CLOV. While many of the points raised were addressed by CLOV, some, I still consider legitimate and should worry all potential investors:
Financials CLOV's financials paint a picture of a rapidly growing company. Their revenues increased from $277M in 2018 to $680M in 2020. While their operating costs also grew, it grew at a significantly lesser rate leading to lower net losses in general. In 2018, CLOV reported net losses of $186M and in 2020, they had reduced this to $93M. Their net income losses, however follows a different trajectory. Due to losses from continued operations, their net income had losses of $200M in 2018, $364M in 2019, and $136M in 2020. While 2020 does represent their lowest losses ever, it is not entirely clear whether this is part of a trend or if it's a one-off fluke. Their balance sheet does not paint a pretty picture. With total assets of $270M and liabilities of $430M, it is clear that they must fund their continued operations through equity. Remember, they are losing over $100M per year as well. Thus, it is entirely possible that they will dilute their existing equity in order to fund continued operations. So, do I like CLOV? The short answer is no. CLOV is a small, but fast-growing insurer valued at $3.7B. While they definitely have impressive AI technology, it is not unique in the industry and will not be a moat for them. Their CEO has been involved in shady dealings in the past and the fact that they cannot be forthright about active investigations into their business is concerning. They are currently burning through cash without a healthy balance sheet to hold them through which means that it is likely they will issue additional equities to stay afloat. The industry that they are in is certainly lucrative and if they can get a foothold, they will justify their current valuation. However, for my personal conviction, the cons outweigh the pros and I will be passing on this stock. TLDR;
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| What kind of stocks should a 40 year old employed person be investing in? Posted: 06 Jun 2021 06:15 AM PDT Growth or dividend growth stocks? I'm currently holding mostly growth stocks just wondering if dividend paying stocks would be better 10-15 years from now. Oh I forgot to mention in the title. For a 40 year old person with 50k to invest with. I was thinking growth stocks give more returns but you have to sell the stocks to realize gains. And dividend stocks are more stable but you don't see much growth. And you have to have a lot of money in dividend stocks just to even try and live off the dividends. [link] [comments]  |
| How will the new SEC, DTCC, OCC rules affect non meme stock investors and traders? Posted: 06 Jun 2021 04:13 AM PDT So how will these rules affect normal investors and traders? Will this affect overall volatility of stocks in the long term? Are there any other effects(positive or negative) to those who trade options and use theta as a way to trade? I just want a perspective from a non-ape trader who mitigates risks and uses consistent small gains to win. [link] [comments]  |
| At what point does correlation doesn’t equal causation stop applying? Posted: 06 Jun 2021 11:29 AM PDT Hey all, I got into investing a bit over a year ago and it's been quite an interesting ride to say the least. I'm going to preface this by saying that yes, I do hold a position in $GME but I want to talk about the broader market. Everyday that goes by I feel like I'm seeing more and more statistical data that is in the simplest of terms, pointing directly to a scenario similar to the housing crisis but on an even broader scale. I know that sentiment on Reddit generally wants to believe that bear markets aren't a fact of life but I can't help but feel we are headed toward one. Whether or not you buy into GameStop going to millions of dollars or an "infinity squeeze," things like the reverse repo market being at all time highs and the obvious corruption relating to short selling pointed out in the house of cards DDs that are cited and peer reviewed have to instill some sense of worry. At least it does for me. So I guess my question here for all of you that are traditional and seemingly level-headed investors is, at what point do we go "holy sh*t 2008 never really ended and Wall Street has created a nuke ready to detonate?" Again, I'm not trying to spread fear but I can't help but feel there comes a point where data just doesn't lie and it points to a clear, albeit depressing and frightening outcome. Edit: I'm not looking for anyone to confirm my biases here, if anything I'd like to hear counterarguments that oppose the DD on r/superstonk if there are legitimate holes in it. [link] [comments]  |
| Shift technologies - An online used car sales company Posted: 06 Jun 2021 08:26 AM PDT DISCLAIMER: I am a holder of SFT stock. Not meant as financial advice, just trying to provide some information and create some discussion around this company. Positions: 210 shares @ $7.06 and planning on buying some longdated slightly OTM calls. Shift technologies, ticker $SFT - Current share price: $7.57 - Market cap: 636.973M So, before I start most things I could even write here are covered by an excellent DD video found on youtube by TheWalrus Street (I highly recommend his channel). I can't post the link but it's easy to find on youtube and provides all the basic information you need about this company. Recently there have been quite a few developments for the company. Shift technologies released its 1st quarter earnings report on May 13th and it was pretty damn good. - Revenue grew to $106.0 million up 254% YOY - Gross profit grew to $7.4 million or 6.9% of total revenue, up from $3.3 million. - Gross profit per unit was $1,655, growing 255% from $466 in Q4'2020 - Net loss was $42.8 million as compared to net loss of $12.3 million a year prior. Increase in net loss is mainly attributable to an increase in marketing expenses and slight increase in SG&A expenses. However, margins are increasing significantly (255% increase in margins on vehicles quarter over quarter) and revenue is as well. It makes sense that their operating expenses are increasing as they will have to act aggressively in order to be able to take market-share from both Carvana and Vroom. So this quarter was pretty good, but I believe that the next quarter will be even better considering that according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics April saw the biggest increase in inflation for used verhicles, going up by 10% which is the highest it has been since 1953. See the link below for a bloomberg article covering this: Bloomberg article on Inflation in used vehicles More recently on May 24th an offering of senior notes of 75 million was announced, which they increased to 125 million the next day. The share price dropped as low as $6.26 intraday on the 24th but has seen a steady climb back upwards ever since. With this happening I'm also pretty confident that further offerings will not happen in the near future. There has also been some insider purchasing of shares. Just 4 days ago Oded Shein the CFO of the company bought $70k worth of shares at $7.00. Although this seems insignificant it's generally a bullish sign for insiders to be purchasing shares. Finally, $SFT will be added to the Russell 3000 on June 25th. The list of companies that are going to be uplisted was announced 2 days ago. For the full list see the link below so you can check it out for yourself. Preliminary additions to the Russell 3000 This isn't a major catalyst or anything but it does mean that funds tracking the index will have to start adding some shares in order to rebalance their indexes. This could already have happened in anticipation of the uplisting ofcourse, so I wouldn't put too much value on it. In general my outlook for Shift is very bullish. Considering the inflation statistics in used vehicles from april and their rapid growth trajectory I can see their revenue increasing even more over the next quarters. Even if they have four consecutive 106.0 million revenue quarters that puts them at a P/S ratio of around 1.5 (P/S ratio using sales last year is currently 3.5 for SFT). Their main competitors, Vroom and Carvana have P/S ratio of 3.75 and 7.01 (based on revenues of last year). To me SFT seems undervalued, but I would love to hear your thought and opinions. Also, sorry if there are any formatting errors and any possible grammatical mistakes (am not a native English speaker). [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Jun 2021 02:21 PM PDT I'm looking through I have about 10 thousand in investments, Everything is mainly in bundles though them with some room to personalize. if I go with a high risk bundle are these type of company's very good at what they do? should I do my own research and try to personalize my own portfolio ? I'm pretty new to all of this so any help is welcomed [link] [comments]  |
| How do you find a fair price to buy a stock at as long term investor? Posted: 06 Jun 2021 04:04 AM PDT I've been investing for about 5 months now. I buy mostly save longterm stocks and plan to hold them for years. I do my DD and have confidence but Im always wondering if I should just buy it at the current price because its a long teem investment anyway, or if I should try and find a good price to wait at. I can open the chart check hiw the stock is doing and compare it with previous resistance etc. But still I always end up just buying because the stock market is the stock market and nobody knows whats exactly going to happen. How do you guys do this? EDIT: I'm also aware of things like the discounted cash flow methods etc ofcourse Thanks in advance! [link] [comments]  |
| Where should i learn qualitative and quantitive analysis from? Posted: 06 Jun 2021 05:29 AM PDT Are there any youtube channels, books where i can learn this from? I am a beginner and looking to pick up long-term investing, value investing. Additionally, i would also like to know which method of picking these kinds of stocks is the most viable and how to apply them. Thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| Clarification Regarding 401a/403b & IRA Account Contribution Limits Posted: 06 Jun 2021 11:48 AM PDT My work provides a 401a/403b retirement account for me, which I believe has a max annual contribution amount of 19.5k (have not gotten close to maxing out). I also have a Roth IRA account that I've been maxing out (6k) for the last several years during my full time employment. Are these two contribution limits completely separate from each other? I'm reading things that say something along the lines of "You can have as many retirement accounts as you wish but the combined contribution limit of 6k remains". Do I assume the 401a/403b is exempt from that? Also from reading it sounds like when I switch employers I would likely be rolling over my 401a/403b into a 401k, and am wondering if the contribution limits I have now would mirror that once rolled over into the 401k while still investing in my roth. Thanks, [link] [comments]  |
| Question about stocks and the money supply Posted: 06 Jun 2021 07:11 AM PDT Is the growth of the US stock market more or less dependent on a growing money supply in the US? It has to be like that right? Because if the money supply isnt growing then we will reach a cap of how much money can be added to the stock market. Now i know that money from other countries is flowing into the US stock market but that cant be the driving factor for the stock market growth, right? Second question is if there is a guarantee that the money supply will Continue to grow in the long term future? And if it wont, what would happen to the stock market? But if it will continue to grow in the long term, could one say that we have more or less secured future growth in the stock market also? Happy for answers :) [link] [comments]  |
| Will Dexcom (DXCM) be a big winner in the continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) market? Posted: 06 Jun 2021 10:07 AM PDT Diabetes is still a growing disease worldwide, unfortunately, and the majority of diabetics are still pricking their fingers and using blood glucose monitors (BGM) to check their blood glucose levels every day. With CGM, the need for finger pricking has been eliminated in most cases. The two biggest players in the CGM market are DXCM and Freestyle Libre from Abbott Labs (ABT). Freestyle Libre is the cheaper of the two while DXCM sensors have been called the iPhone of CGM. Many people with type 1 diabetes already use DXCM and they swear by it. Now, DXCM is aggressively pushing into the type 2 diabetes market as well. What does the future hold for DXCM? Will ABT crush them? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Jun 2021 11:37 AM PDT What would people's preferences be? AMZN has been trading sideways a bit, whilst GOOGL is pushing toward ATH. This stock would be to hold for long and would join the following portfolio; AAPL MSFT AMD ALLY PEP DIS TGT F V VWRP It's also worth asking would anyone sell those already owned to make way for AMZN or GOOGL? For example sell off two holdings for one of those others? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Jun 2021 08:34 AM PDT If someone looses 10k the year before and makes 10k next year do they have to pay taxes on that 10k or is it minesed out Text Text If someone looses 10k the year before and makes 10k next year do they have to pay taxes on that 10k or is it minesed out [link] [comments]  |
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