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    Saturday, May 1, 2021

    Stocks - Why hasn't Robinhood still not received any form of punishment/fine when they restricted the buying on 50 different stocks back in January?

    Stocks - Why hasn't Robinhood still not received any form of punishment/fine when they restricted the buying on 50 different stocks back in January?


    Why hasn't Robinhood still not received any form of punishment/fine when they restricted the buying on 50 different stocks back in January?

    Posted: 01 May 2021 06:36 AM PDT

    This article contains the list: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/robinhood-expands-trading-restrictions-50-225241993.html

    I know other brokerages restricted GME/AMC. But Robinhood's restricted list was way bigger and included stocks such as AMD, AAL, BYND, GM, IPOE, MRNA, and SBUX. I had got into stocks in January 2021 as a new years resolution. Which was a couple weeks before the GME stuff and reddit trading was even all over the news. At the time I honestly thought the buying restriction was something a part of the stock market. As a few stocks had been getting suspended in trading in both buying/selling quite frequently prior to RH restrictions.

    Now that a couple months have passed looking back. Im honestly shocked RH didn't receive any type of fine/punishment for that. They limited the upside on 50 stocks while still leaving holders open to the full downside. I really hope that doesn't happen again.

    submitted by /u/WickedSensitiveCrew
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    I analyzed all the Motley Fool Premium recommendations since 2013 and benchmarked them against S&P500 returns. Here are the results!

    Posted: 01 May 2021 06:06 AM PDT

    Preamble: There is no way around it. A vast majority of us Redditors absolutely hate The Motley Fool. I feel that it's justified, given their clickbait titles or "5 can't miss stocks of the century" or turning 1,000 into 100,000 posts designed just to drive traffic to their website. Another Redditor summed it up perfectly with this,

    If r/wallstreetbets and r/stocks can agree on one thing, it's that Motley Fool is utter trash

    Now that that's out of the way, let's come to my hypothesis. There are more than 1 million paying subscribers for Motley Fool's premium subscription. This implies that they are providing some sort of value that encouraged more than 1MM customers to pay up. They have claimed on their website that they have 4X'ed the S&P500 returns over the last 19 years. I wanted to check if this claim is due to some statistical trickery or some outlier stocks which they lucked out on or was it just plain good recommendations that beat the market.

    Basically, What I wanted to know was this - Would you have been able to beat the market if you had followed their recommendations?

    Where is the data from: The data is from Motley Fool Premium subscription (Stock Advisor) in Canada. Due to this, the data is limited from 2013 and they have made a total of 91 recommendations for US-listed stocks. (They make one buy recommendation every 4th Wednesday of the month). I feel that 8 years is a long enough time frame to benchmark their performance. If you have seen my previous posts, I always share the data used in the analysis. But in this case, I will not be able to share the data as per the terms and conditions of their subscription.

    Analysis: As per Motley Fool, their stock picks are long-term plays (at least 5 years). Hence for all their recommendations I calculated the stock price change across 4 periods and benchmarked it against S&P500 returns during the same period.

    a. One-Quarter

    b. One Year

    c. Two Year

    d. Till Date (From the day of recommendation to Today)

    Another feedback that I received for my previous analysis was starting price point for analysis. In this case, Motley Fool recommends their stock picks on Wed market close, I am considering the starting point of my analysis on Thursday's market close price (i.e, you could have bought the share anytime during the next day).

    Results:

    Performance of Motely Fool Premium Recommendations

    Avg. Change In Price Motley Fool Stock Picks SPY Change over SPY
    One Quarter 6% 3% 3%
    One Year 24% 11% 13%
    Two Year 67% 20% 47%
    Till Date 134% 71% 63%

    As we can see from the above chart, Motley Fool's recommendations did beat the market over the long term across the different time periods. Their one-year returns were ~2X and two-year returns were ~3X the SPY returns. Even capping for outliers (stocks that gained more than 100%), their returns were better than the S&P benchmark.

    Performance of Motely Fool Sell Recommendations

    Avg. Change In Price Motley Fool Stock Picks
    If you followed Fool's Sell Recommendations 134%
    If you did not follow Fool's Sell Recommendations 167%

    But it's not like all their strategies were good. As we can see from the above chart, their sell recommendations were not exactly ideal and you would have gained more if you just stayed put on your portfolio and did not sell when they recommended you to sell. One of the major contributors to this difference was that they issued a sell recommendation for Tesla in 2019 for a good profit but missed out on Tesla's 2020 rally.

    How much money should you be managing to profitably use Motley Fool recommendations?

    The stock advisor subscription costs $100 per year. Considering their yearly returns beat the benchmark by 13%, to break even, you only need to invest $770 per year. Considering a 5x factor of safety as historical performance cannot be expected to be repeated and to factor in all the extra trading fees, one has to invest around $4k every year. You also have to factor in the mental stress that you will have to put up with all their upselling tactics and clickbait e-mails that they send.

    Limitations of analysis: Since I am using the Canadian version of Motley Fool's premium subscription, I have only access to the US recommendations made from 2013. But, 8 years is a considerably long time to benchmark returns for the service. Also, I am unable to share the data I used in the analysis for cross-verification by other people.

    But I am definitely not the first person to independently analyze their recommendations. This peer-reviewed research publication in 2017 came to the same conclusion for the time period that was before my analysis.

    We find that the Stock Advisor recommendations do statistically outperform the matched samples and S&P 500 index, since the creation of Stock Advisor in 2002 regarding both short-term and long-term holding periods. Over a longer holding period, the Stock Advisor portfolio repeatedly outperforms the S&P 500 index and matched samples in terms of monthly raw returns and risk-adjusted measures. Although the overall performance of the Stock Advisor portfolio benefits from remarkable recommendation performances between 2002 and 2006, the portfolio still exceeds the benchmarks regarding risk-adjusted measures during the subsequent period between 2007 and 2011

    Conclusion:

    I have some theories on why Motley Fool produces content the way they do. The free articles of the company are just created to drive the maximum amount of traffic to their website. If we have learned anything from the changes in blog headlines and YouTube thumbnails, it's that clickbait works. I guess they must have decided that the traffic they generate from the headlines and articles far outweigh the negative PR they get due to the same articles.

    Whatever the case may be, rather than hating on something regardless of the results, we could give credit where credit is due! I started the research being extremely skeptical, but my analysis, as well as peer-reviewed papers, shows that their Stock Advisor picks beat the market over the long run.

    Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and in no way related to Motley Fools.

    submitted by /u/nobjos
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    $PLTR New US Air Force Contract

    Posted: 30 Apr 2021 02:42 PM PDT

    "Palantir USG Inc., Palo Alto, California, has been awarded a $32,500,000 firm-fixed-price contract that provides data-as-a-service platform for two separate mission areas. The first is the Project Brown Heron effort that has the Palantir Gotham platform configured to automatically ingest data from across the Department of the Air Force (DAF) that continually push personnel, equipment, planning, health, and other readiness data sources into their common data foundation. This readiness information is a critical component to DAF-wide COVID-19 analysis and decision making. The second is to provide mission-critical space situational awareness and command and control capabilities to operational users at the National Space Defense Center and the Combined Space Operations Center. Work will be performed in Palo Alto, California, and is expected to be completed Nov. 30, 2021. This award is the result of a sole-source acquisition. Fiscal 2021 operation and maintenance funds in the amount of $12,857,144; and fiscal 2021 research, development, test and evaluation funds in the amount of $4,000,000 are being obligated at the time of award. Space and Missile Systems Center, Los Angeles Air Force Base, California, is the contracting activity (FA8806-21-C-0010)."

    Link

    submitted by /u/infinity884422
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    Soon all car manufacturers are going to be exclusively EV. Why do people see this as a sign that said companies will become more valuable?

    Posted: 01 May 2021 10:35 AM PDT

    This is excluding new companies specialising in EV such as Tesla as they will naturally grow as they enter the market.

    But for the likes of let's say Volkswagen or Ford...

    People seem to dive at the chance to invest in these companies when they announce their move into the EV market.

    However the way I see it, these companies already sell cars and will simply begin to sell cars that are powered differently. Petrol/ diesel powered vehicles will soon be discontinued so it isnt necessarily a case where they will have a larger customer base.

    submitted by /u/ImReellySmart
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    When We Look Back at This Era, One of the Talking Points Will Be This $SNAP Debt Offering

    Posted: 01 May 2021 11:00 AM PDT

    A company that lost $310 million last quarter, and has so far run up an accumulated deficit of $8 billion was able to privately place $1.15 billion of 0% bonds. There was apparently so much demand for their original $1 billion placement that they added $150 million to the offering.

    Companies treat debt/equity markets as a limitless ATM.

    I don't know about you but if a financial advisor told me "this company's bonds are investment grade, but they're not profitable," I'd laugh at them.

    submitted by /u/ArtLob41
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    Selling Apple shares was 'probably a mistake' and Munger knew it: Warren Buffett

    Posted: 01 May 2021 01:12 PM PDT

    Source

    Warren Buffett conceded that selling some shares of Apple (AAPL) in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio last year was likely a mistake, with the company remaining a tech leader providing massive utility to users around the world.

    "The brand and the product, it's an incredible product. It's a huge, huge bargain to people. I mean the part it plays in their lives is huge. I mean, I use it as a phone but I'm probably the only guy in the country," the famed value investor said of Apple during Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting on Saturday. "It is indispensable to people."

    "I sold some stock last year, although our shareholders still saw their shares go up because we repurchased shares," he added. "But that was probably a mistake."

    "Charlie in his usual low-key way he let me know that he thought it was a mistake too, didn't you Charlie?" Buffett asked his long-time business partner and friend, who sat by his side during the meeting. Charlie Munger replied: "Yes."

    submitted by /u/push-pack
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    You can learn a lot about investing by reading annual reports or watching annual meetings if available online. Like Berkshire Hathaway today

    Posted: 01 May 2021 11:17 AM PDT

    You can learn about different types of companies by reading their annual reports. For many years the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting has been shown on either CNBC or today it's on Yahoo live. It's definitely worth watching because you learn about the investment philosophy of one of the smartest investors Warren Buffett.

    submitted by /u/KCGuy59
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    I don't understand how dividends affect a stock price.

    Posted: 01 May 2021 11:44 AM PDT

    I read today that if a stock is trading at 20.04 and pays a .04 dividend, on ex-dividend day the stock will adjust down to 20.00 to reflect that dividend no longer being available to buyers.

    I got down voted to hell for saying it's not necessarily 1:1 like that, but actually now I'm just confused. Is it actually 1:1 like that? Does the stock price adjust down automatically by that exact amount? I was under the impression that prices were only affected by supply and demand. What about open limit orders? Do they automatically adjust down by that exact amount? I saw this somewhere.

    Or is it 100% due to market forces? Since investors know they are no longer entitled to that money on ex-dividend day, they will naturally be willing to pay .04 less for the stock, thus they adjust their bid sizes accordingly.

    The info I'm finding online is not clear on it. Some sources are saying it's automatic, some are saying it's market forces (or maybe I'm just being thick). Anyway, sorry for spreading misinformation in the other thread, but it would be cool if someone could actually clarify how this works.

    EDIT: Already getting conflicting information here. So looks like I'm not the only dummy. Let's see if we can clear this up together.

    submitted by /u/shortyafter
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    Currently creating a public spreadsheet, data you'd like to see in it?

    Posted: 01 May 2021 12:52 PM PDT

    I've been working on 3 spreadsheets, one for FA, one for TA, and one for a overall market tracker and portfolio tracker, it'll be totally free, and have 15 years of historical data for the fundamental analysist's, i've finished the FA, & tracker, and have yet to start the TA, as of now putting 1 value into the FA sheet will give you 1200 numbers of data (80 different metrics (lot of balance sheet, cash flow, and income stuff) with 15 years for each, 80x15, not including the ratios like P/E and P/B and such), if anyone has any obscure ideas before I release it for public use, please lmk. it has color formatting, and pulls data from 5 different websites, also having links to all the important sites, eg. Searching Alpha, Open Insider, SEC releases, WW, FinViz, and yahoo finance (a few more as well but you'll just have to wait till release). The tracker currently just includes the RUA, and you can add additional tickers with ease, also including many sector trackers, and alternate investments (that I can't name on this subreddit).

    any additional ideas would be appreciated, trying to make this the best I can for the community!

    submitted by /u/The_Will_Here
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    The Pfizer CEO Prediction That Could Mean Total COVID Market Dominance in 2022

    Posted: 01 May 2021 11:59 AM PDT

    The Pfizer CEO Prediction That Could Mean Total COVID Market Dominance in 2022

    [Sauce]

    Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) already is the leader in the coronavirus vaccine market. The big pharmaceutical company and partner BioNTech became the first to launch a vaccine. And that product now has fully vaccinated 49 million Americans. That's more than rivals Moderna and Johnson & Johnson. Pfizer recently forecast $15 billion in coronavirus vaccine revenue this year.

    But Pfizer isn't stopping there. The company is now ready to conquer another massive coronavirus market. That move could give it ownership of the entire coronavirus space...and this dominance could be right around the corner.

    submitted by /u/BareAuthority
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    Preparing to Invest before 18

    Posted: 01 May 2021 12:35 PM PDT

    I'm sure this subreddit has had a plethora of newbies wanting to stick their foot in the door of stocks and the trade market but I'm just as curious as them so I've come to reddit to answer some itching questions about the world of trading.

    1. Is a Roth IRA a good idea to start placing some money in as soon as I turn 18?
    2. What are some rookie mistakes that could be completely avoided when beginning to trade?
    submitted by /u/r0llsroyce
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    Help me understand dividends. Can I make easy money off an investment then pull it out again?

    Posted: 01 May 2021 06:30 AM PDT

    I really don't get them. Is it just like a little bonus, paid out once a year to its shareholders? And can you just make easy money?

    Let me explain;

    Say i have $20k to invest.

    I looked at a random stock list on Finviz of those that pay dividends. One of these is MPLX.

    Even better, it looks like it takes place this week. According to a press release last week, it says this;

    " The board of directors of the general partner of MPLX LP (NYSE: MPLX) has declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.6875 per common unit for the first quarter of 2021, or $2.75 on an annualized basis. The distribution will be paid on May 14, 2021, to common unitholders of record as of May 7, 2021."

    The dividen yield is 10% but I dunno if this is good or not. I've heard IBM is a good stock for this, but I really don't get it.

    So, does this mean, that anyone who holds stock before May 7th, gets the cash payment dividend on May 14th? I know my broker automatically gives me the dividend as I've had a couple in the past, for a few dollars.

    Assuming this is true, if you went and bought 740 shares on Monday, this would cost you just shy of $20,000 ($26.99 per share).

    Does this mean, that by the 7th that valuation would be eligible and on the 14th you'd get paid the dividend?

    Next, assuming that is correct, how do you work it out? It says 0.68 per common unit, so does this mean they will give you 0.68 per share, which based on the 740 puchase share example, 0.68x740 = 503.2 (so $503.20 dollars). So if you invest on the Monday, hold until the 14th, you get 500 dollars for putting that 20,000 dollars in?

    Is this right or am I chatting nuts? It also says this is quarterly, so you can expect something similar every 3 months, so $2000 a year just for putting the money in?

    Assuming this is right, what's to stop people investing in the week before, then pulling everything out when the money gets paid? Nothing I assume?

    And lastly, if all the above is correct, does anyone know some long term growth stocks that would be stable for large investment that also pay a handsome dividend?

    submitted by /u/puu222
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    Let's talk Lumber Gang! Bullish on $BCC and $LPX. Bearish on Home Builders.

    Posted: 01 May 2021 07:35 AM PDT

    First DD about something I'm familiar with.

    I am currently in FAANG tickers plus MSFT. Earnings were good but the stock is either not moving, or went up and came back down. I'm planning to sell everything I'm green in and move the majority over to something that has been killing it which is lumber. It can add some more variety to this sub.

    My husband is in the industry (his company is not publicly traded) and things have been good and bad. It's been good because people have been paying ridiculous prices for houses. Combine that with the building material shortage and he has been able to raise his profit margins. Very nice commission checks coming home.

    It's bad because there is not enough lumber for everyone and he's been having hard conversations with builders who don't get that they will have to slow down because product is running out.

    Here are how lumber futures have been doing.

    5 Day – 9.45%

    1 Month – 48.41%

    3 Month – 69.36%

    YTD – 72.15%

    1 Year – 359.39%

    If anyone knows how to invest in futures without receiving actual product I would love to know. Don't want to be that guy that got a bunch of oil delivered to him.

    With how things are going we are going to continue to see a rise in lumber for at least through the summer. The biggest problem is obtaining Engineered Wood Products (EWP) and OSB. Home Depot has quadrupled the price of OSB over the past year. There is also a resin shortage that is needed to make these products. Timber is cheap but the bottleneck is sawmills. Either they have reduced capacity due to covid or they are switching business to OSB because it is more profitable.

    I'm looking at companies such as $BCC (38% last 3 months), $WY (23% last 3 months), $LPX (71% last 3 months). They have had great runs and are currently in a dip from the last few days. (Hopefully a dip and not the top).

    First companies that will be screwed sooner than later will most likely be home builders. They will soon realize they have been building houses for free and will get hit first. They try to hit a 35% profit margin. That margin is eroding by rising costs but they are under contract. Contracts last about 6 months. So expect their profits to go down. Unless they have been really good at guessing lumber futures and buying appropriately.

    Home builders have been hitting highs and could be shorted or have puts placed on them. Just look at the top 10 list of publicly traded developer stocks. Be careful with timing. They've had big jumps this last week.

    Bear case: The fed could finally raise interest rates which would decrease demand and let supply catch up. More investment can go into building out saw mills. Builders can get creative and use different materials. This is where steel gang can benefit. Supply could eventually catch up but it may take some time. This is a several month play for now.

    Current position is shares in $BCC. I've seen nice steady rise over the last few months.

    TLDR: Lumber has been on a great run and is getting more scarce. Buy lumber tickers such as $BCC, $WY and $LPX and puts on big home developers. Mid term play.

    submitted by /u/shellycya
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    Tattooed Chef TTCF

    Posted: 01 May 2021 07:32 AM PDT

    Hi guys. This stock seems to be having some decent relative hype lately and I have been reading a lot about it. However, I would like to ask community's opinion about it. Can it be a decent long term hold? Thanks

    submitted by /u/TheDalaiDrama
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    Quick question about my stocks in aphria after the merger

    Posted: 01 May 2021 12:45 PM PDT

    How long do they take to show as converted? My app just shows I have stock in aphria, which is now delisted but none in tilray. Did I have to do something for them to convert or will it kick in on monday?

    submitted by /u/A-B-I-M-A
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    $upwk earnings play on Tuesday May 4th

    Posted: 01 May 2021 09:36 AM PDT

    Upwork Inc. operates an online talent marketplace that enables businesses to find and work with various independent professionals and agencies in the United States, India, the Philippines, and internationally. The company's platform provides access to talent with various skills across a range of categories, including sales and marketing, customer service, data science and analytics, design and creative, web, mobile, and software development. Its platform also enables clients to streamline workflows, such as talent sourcing, outreach, and contracting.

    UpWork is posting their earnings after market close on Tuesday May 4th 2021.

    Upwork last posted its quarterly earnings results on February 23rd, 2021. The reported $0.01 EPS for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of ($0.07) by $0.08. The firm earned $106.15 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $97.34 million. Its quarterly revenue was up 32.2% on a year-over-year basis.

    They beat earnings in February and the stock went up 20% from around 50 to $60+ after hours.

    This is a company that should be growing during the pandemic as more people are working and hiring remotely.

    I expect strong earnings and a 10+ percent increase in the stock Tuesday after hours.

    I'm holding 1170 shares of $upwk @ $45.52

    submitted by /u/Taterbaulm
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    A thought about QUALCOMM future revenue situation.

    Posted: 01 May 2021 09:10 AM PDT

    I was reading that over 50% of QUALCOMM's revenue come from China. Is it possibile that after Huawei will be able to produce its own chips (because of the US tariffs), QCOM revenue will shrink year after year and the stock will consequently plummet?

    submitted by /u/Wald_JD
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    Best Sector for the next 5 years?

    Posted: 30 Apr 2021 05:17 PM PDT

    Alright so i know a lot of people like EV's but I also think the energy sector will do well under Biden. I dont have the most extensive knowledge of finance, just picking up stuff as I go. But what sectors do you like now and think will do well in the next 5-10 years?

    Edit: Thanks so much for all of the responses!

    submitted by /u/Bowlofzebras
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    Cybersecurity - Top 3 picks for the next 5-10 years.

    Posted: 01 May 2021 12:24 AM PDT

    If you have to pick 3 individual cybersecurity stocks for the next 5-10 years which would they be?

    I am relatively new to investing but this is a market I really want to start some positions in. I just cannot see how it can't grow exponentially with more and more devices, businesses, vehicles and infrastructure requiring more robust cybersecurity.

    Any advice would be appreciated :-)

    submitted by /u/TwinPeaks1993
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    Worth waiting to invest in psychedlic stocks?

    Posted: 01 May 2021 10:25 AM PDT

    Shroom stocks have popped over the past weeks over one of the main companies being uplisted to the NASDAQ.

    However, last time there was pop (December until February) the stocks slowly slid on there being no news, continuing to drop right until the uplisting news was released.

    Are we seeing a similar pattern now?

    In terms of future news, there is only the ATAI IPO, the FDA meeting to approve the recently uplisted company's Phase 2 trial, then the CMPS Phase 2b results later this year. There will be months in between news and the hype could wear off.

    What do you think? I want to invest in CMPS before the Phase 2b results but I figure it will slid before then.

    submitted by /u/squiglesthesquirrel
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    Buy baks & Dividends

    Posted: 01 May 2021 01:44 PM PDT

    Are stock buy & dividends backs done pre or post tax at the corporate tax level? I'm curious how returning capital to shareholders effects taxes. For the corporation, I understand how they work for the investor.

    submitted by /u/Introduction_Deep
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    Question about long term investments

    Posted: 01 May 2021 11:14 AM PDT

    If i buy 20 stocks of something on January 1st 2019 then buy 50 more on August 1st 2019 how do you count when it hits long term investment? Do the 20 count as long term on January 2nd 2020 but the 50 don't until August 2nd 2020 or are they treated as a whole and all 70 won't be counted until August 2nd 2020?

    submitted by /u/Shredah21
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    How often do you discuss stocks with people in real life?

    Posted: 01 May 2021 06:21 AM PDT

    How often do you discuss stocks with people in real life? Like with your co-workers, friends, family, neighbors, etc.

    And how often do you visit a financial advisor if you have any? I am curious to know if anyone does have a financial advisor here.

    submitted by /u/gorays21
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