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    Home Unlabelled Stocks - Twitter (TWTR) has done basically nothing in its entire publically-traded history

    Stocks - Twitter (TWTR) has done basically nothing in its entire publically-traded history

    May 02, 2021

    Stocks - Twitter (TWTR) has done basically nothing in its entire publically-traded history

    Twitter (TWTR) has done basically nothing in its entire publically-traded history

    Posted: 02 May 2021 08:44 AM PDT

    I started investing in late 2013 and TWTR was the hot IPO at the time. I distinctly remember buying a few shares at $57 figuring I'd get in on the ground floor of what was already a culturally-significant company.

    Amazingly, over 7 years later the stock is trading lower than where I bought it all those years ago. TWTR has never paid a dividend or split their stock, so in effect they've created zero wealth for the general public over their entire public existence. I sold my shares for a wash in 2014, but I'd have been shocked to hear they'd still be kicking around the same spot in 2021. In an era of social media, digital advertising and general tech dominance, it's a remarkable failure.

    On the one hand it provides a valuable lesson that a company still has to succeed financially, and not just have a compelling narrative. Pay attention to the bottom line - hype alone does not a business make. On the other hand, what the hell? Twitter has created verbs. It's among the most-visited websites in the world. We've just had 4 years of a Twitter presidency. Yet Twitter has seen its younger brother (SQ) lap it in terms of value. How has this company not managed to get off the ground as a profitable business?

    submitted by /u/msnf
    [link] [comments]

    How would you feel about the stock market being open 24/7?

    Posted: 02 May 2021 08:12 AM PDT

    So, I've had a thought recently about how it would be if the market was open 24/7.

    I think there would be sufficient liquidity for most of the time; the US market is one of the most extensive and prominent in the world. In fact, I live in the UK and I actually like the US market more than the UK one, due to the stocks and the reliability of it. So, since there's always global demand, I think we'll have constant trading happening no matter the time.

    However, I enjoy the feeling of being able to sleep without the risk of waking up and seeing some stock has crashed 20% overnight.

    I'm personally in favour of keeping the market with distinct opening and closing times, but I wanted to hear other people's opinions on it.

    submitted by /u/maximalsimplicity
    [link] [comments]

    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 3rd, 2021

    Posted: 02 May 2021 04:45 AM PDT

    Goooooood Sunday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning May 3rd, 2021.

    More earnings, April's big jobs report and inflation worries could swing markets in the week ahead - (Source)

    April's jobs report and a barrage of earnings news make for another busy week for markets, as the calendar rolls into May.

    Stocks notched solid gains in April, as REITs, consumer discretionary names and communications services companies outpaced the broader market, all more than 7% higher. However, April finished on a sour note, with stocks selling off on Friday.

    "Since November, there's been a 30% rally," said Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer at Rockefeller Global Family Office. He noted that historically the November to April period is historically the strongest for stocks. "There's the adage 'sell in May, go away.' It may be somewhat appropriate this year since we've done so well in the last six months."

    Big jobs report

    April's employment report is released Friday, and the market is expecting a big number.

    Economists say payrolls in April could easily reach 1 million, after 916,000 jobs were added in March. Estimates range from about 700,000 to a forecast of 2.1 million from Jefferies economists.

    According to Dow Jones, there is a consensus forecast of 978,000 among the economists it surveyed and the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.8% form 6%.

    Fed speakers will also be important after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in the past week that the Fed is still looking for "substantial further progress" in its goals for the economy.

    The chairman emphasized that the Fed is not close to tapering back its bond buying program, a surprise to some investors. Some bond market pros had expected the Fed to start discussing cutting back purchases at its June meeting and begin to reduce its $120 billion monthly bond buying by the end of the year or early next year.

    "Next week is all about the jobs number, because as part of the Fed's path to 'substantial progress' on their two roles, we'll see how much further along that path they are next Friday" said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. The Fed's mandate is to pursue full employment and a steady pace of Inflation, which it has targeted at 2%.

    The Fed has expected a temporary period of high inflation which it expects to see subside later in the year though Boockvar and others say inflation could be hotter than the Fed expects. The core personal consumption expenditures price index jumped 0.36% in March, with the year-ago rate rising from 1.4% to 1.8%. It is expected to go even higher in April. Headline inflation in the consumer price index is expected to begin running at 3% or better when it is reported May 12.

    Just days after Powell's comments on tapering, Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan Friday said the Fed should begin the discussion on paring back bond purchases because imbalances in financial markets and the economy is improving faster than expected.

    The market's focus on the Fed's bond program makes the jobs report even more important. If the Fed starts to taper back those asset purchases, it would then signal it would be on the path toward raising interest rates. Most economists do not expect the Fed to raise interest rates before 2023.

    "If this jobs number comes in super hot, it's going to make people up their estimate on when the Fed might taper," said Michael Schumacher, director rates at Wells Fargo.

    Powell is among Fed speakers in the coming week, but he is not expected to provide any new views when he participates in a National Community Reinvestment Coalition conference Monday afternoon. Kaplan speaks Tuesday and Thursday, and New York Fed President John Williams and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester are also among Fed officials speaking in the coming week.

    Earnings soar

    So far, a record 87% of S&P 500 companies have beat earnings estimates, and earnings look to be growing by more than 46%, according to Refinitiv.

    Credit Suisse Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Jonathan Golub upped his forecast Friday for the S&P 500 based on strong earnings. "We are raising our 2021 S&P 500 price target to 4600 from 4300, representing 9.2% upside from current levels, and 22.5% for the year," he wrote.

    Earnings are expected from a diverse group of companies, from General Motors to ViacomCBS. Pharma will be in the spotlight as vaccine makers Pfizer and Moderna both report. Draftkings and Beyond Meat are also on the schedule.

    A host of travel related companies issue results, including Booking Holdings, Hilton Worldwide , Marriott Vacations, and Caesars Entertainment. Consumer brands, like Anheuser Busch Inbev and Estee Lauder also report, as do insurers including AIG, Allstate, and MetLife. (A calendar with some key earnings dates appears below.)

    Chang said the market has discounted a lot of the positive news already.

    "In spite of the really strong reports from the bellwether companies, you're seeing some of the names starting to peter out a little bit," said Chang. "I think it's a sign that so much good news is discounted. I suspect the market is due for a breather. I think in the next couple of months, we're likely to see sideways movement. There's likely to be a pullback which will be healthy."

    The S&P 500 was up 5.2% in April, finishing Friday at 4,181. It is now up 11.2% for the year so far. The Dow rose 2.7% in April, to 33,874, and the Nasdaq gained 5.4% in April, ending Friday at 13,962.

    Chang said he expects some of the "boring" blue chips that haven't participated as much in the rally to do better. Some of those names can be found in pharma, he said.

    Heading into the coming week, investors will be watching for words of wisdom from Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting Saturday.

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    S&P Sectors for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

    S&P 500 and DJIA Up Last 9 Post-Election Year Mays

    May officially marks the beginning of the "Worst Six Months" for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: "Sell in May and go away." Our "Best Six Months Switching Strategy," created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader's tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $960,943 for November-April in 70 years compared to just $1,656 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $788,997 for November-April in 70 years compared to a gain of just $10,145 for May-October.

    May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation following the May 6, 2010 "flash crash". It used to be part of what we once called the "May/June disaster area." From 1965 to 1984 the S&P 500 was down during May fifteen out of twenty times. Then from 1985 through 1997 May was the best month, gaining ground every single year (13 straight gains) on the S&P, up 3.3% on average with the DJIA falling once and two NASDAQ losses.

    In the years since 1997, May's performance has been erratic; DJIA up twelve times in the past twenty-three years (four of the years had gains in excess of 4%). NASDAQ suffered five May losses in a row from 1998-2001, down – 11.9% in 2000, followed by thirteen sizable gains in excess of 2.5% and five losses, the worst of which was 8.3% in 2010.

    Post-election Year Mays rank near the top, registering average gains on DJIA and S&P 500 of 1.3% and 1.7% respectively. DJIA and S&P 500 have advanced in every post-election year May beginning in 1985. Russell 1000 has been up ten years straight in post-election year Mays.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P 500 Up Over 10% First Four Months – Preceded Flat May to late-October

    As of yesterday's close, S&P 500 was up 11.5% year-to-date. Provided these gains hold through the end of April, this year will be just the seventeenth time since 1950 that the S&P 500 has finished the first four months of the year with a gain exceeding 10%. The best January to April span occurred in 1975, up 27.3% (S&P 500 was in the early stages of a new bull market following the bear ending 10/3/1974 in which the S&P 500 declined 48.2%). The next best year was, 1987 (most will remember what happened later that year) and the most recent year was 2019 (a solid year from beginning to end).

    In the above chart we have plotted all 17 previous years in which the S&P 500 was up over 10% January through the end of April. Along side for comparison is "All Years," "Post-Election Years," and 2021 through yesterday. In the previous 17 years, gains tended to fizzle in early-May before gaining some additional ground from around mid-June to mid-July before once again stalling out till late September with more weakness lasting until late-October. On average, by late-October arrived, gains from the previous three months were given back and since the start of May S&P 500 gained around 2.5% on average. You don't have to go away in May but considering the historically modest gains from early-May to late-October, it may not quite be worth sticking around.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here Comes Sell In May

    "The sun was warm but the wind was chill. You know how it is with an April day. When the sun is out and the wind is still, you're one month on in the middle of May." American Poet Robert Frost

    One of the best known investment axioms is to "sell in May and go away." This is largely because the six months from May through October have historically been some of the weakest months of the year for stocks. As you can see below, the next six months have tended to be on the weak side.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the next six months have indeed been the worst six months of the year, up only 1.7% on average. To add insult to injury, we are leaving the six most bullish months of the year. In fact, the S&P 500 Index is set to gain close to 30% during these most bullish six months, one of the best six-month gains ever.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    "Stocks are up more than 87% from the March lows, suggesting a well-deserved pullback during these troublesome months is quite possible," explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "But with an accommodative Fed, fiscal and monetary policy, along with an economy that is opening faster than nearly anyone expected, we'd use any weakness as an opportunity to add to positions."

    Here's the catch, isn't there always a catch? Stocks have actually been higher during these worst months of the year eight of the past ten years.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    U.S. Economy Jumps Out of the Gate in 2021

    In what was initially expected to be one of the slower quarters of the year, the U.S. economy jumped out of the gates in 2021, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing 6.4% quarter over quarter. A faster than expected vaccination program, nearly $3 trillion in fiscal stimulus—including direct payments to consumers—and faster than expected job growth helped fuel a surge in personal consumption—the largest portion of GDP.

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, personal consumption grew 10.7% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, the second highest level since the 1960's:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    "The U.S. economy is off to a great start in 2021, and this should set the stage for solid growth in the remainder of the year as pent up demand continues to flow through the economy," added LPL Financial Chief Investment Officer Burt White. "Many areas of the country are still facing restrictions on activity, so we don't think growth will just be limited to the first quarter."

    However, the growth story in the first quarter wasn't solely about direct stimulus payments. While personal consumption has understandably gained a lot of attention, federal non-defense spending added the most to GDP in nearly 60 years, a segment of the economy unaffected by transfer payments like stimulus checks.

    Digging into the numbers even further, spending on services grew a modest 4.6%, which should accelerate in the second and third quarters as remaining restrictions are lifted in response to falling cases and rising vaccinations. As of April 28, the US is averaging around 2.5-3 million vaccines administered per day, which has helped over half the adult population receive at least one dose of the vaccine, while nearly 40% of adults are fully vaccinated, according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

    The U.S. vaccination program has helped pull the economy forward, but net trade was a modest drag on growth in the first quarter, where domestic growth pulled in imports at a faster pace than the recovery outside of the U.S. lifted exports. As the rest of the world gets better control of COVID-19, rebounding economic growth overseas should provide an additional tailwind for U.S. economy.

    We upgraded our forecast for U.S. GDP in our recent Weekly Market Commentary from 5–5.5% to 6.25–6.75%, and we expect to see the economy continue its pace in the second quarter as restrictions are lifted and activity normalizes.

    Where Do President Biden's First 100 Days Stack Up Versus President Trump?

    President Biden's 100th day in office is tomorrow, on April 29. Hard to believe it has been 100 days already, but overall the economy continues to improve and stocks have done very well under our new President.

    We've heard the question many times: Where does the Biden rally rank? That is what we will look at today. The term "hundred days" was first used on July 24, 1933, on the radio by President Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR). He was discussing the 100-day session of the 73rd U.S. Congress, but over time this term has changed to refer to the first 100 days of a new president.

    Per Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, "President Biden has been quite kind for stocks, with the Dow up nearly 10%, which is on pace for the best first 100 days in office since FDR in the early 1930s. Then toss in the cherry on top that stocks had one of their greatest rallies ever from Election Day until the inauguration and it is clear that although maybe everyone might not like President Biden, but the stock market doesn't have many issues with him."

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the Dow has averaged 4.3% the first 100 days of a new President, while it has been higher the first 100 days in office for five of the past six Presidents. In fact, President Biden's return currently ranks as the third best since 1900, with only Taft and Roosevelt better. Lastly, breaking it down by political party and the first 100 days under a Democratic President was much stronger, up 10.3% on average versus down 0.2% for a Republican President.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here's a chart we shared earlier this year that shows that stocks did amazingly well from Election Day until the inauguration under President Biden.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    What can we glean from those first 100 days? Is there any pattern that might suggest how stocks will do during the rest of the time President Biden is in office? You can look for yourself below, but there doesn't appear to be any clue as to what might happen. President Eisenhower had a weak first 100 days, then a big rally over the remainder of his time in office. Conversely, President Taft saw a big rally during the first 100 days, only to have negative returns for the remainder of his time in office. In the end, fundamentals, valuations, and technicals drive long-term equity returns. The good news is only once since the Great Depression did that mean lower returns for the remainder of time in office after the first 100 days.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Wild Data Close To Q1

    Today was quite the day for economic data, with two key releases from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). We'll start with BEA data on personal income and spending in March.

    First, as shown below, the savings rate surged in the month, with households saving 27.6% of personal income net of taxes. That's a huge number, even by the standards of the elevated savings rates that we've seen over the course of the pandemic.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The reason there was so much saving going on is that transfer payments rose by more than $300bn on the month, driven by the delivery of economic impact payments also known as "stimulus checks" or even shorter: "stimmies."

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Incomes also rose thanks to rebounding labor market activity following winter storms in Texas during February and the longer-term trend of reopening across the economy. As shown, the 13.5% annualized growth of wage and salary income in the month was very strong. It was also helped along by wage growth, which we will discuss later on.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    With spending surging thanks to stimulus checks and other factors, core personal consumption expenditure prices surged by the most MoM since 2009, over 4% annualized. The 4% move was in no small part due to the swing in activity from February to March, and isn't likely to be sustained, but it is a helpful indicator that prices may be more robust in this recovery than they were during the low inflation post-GFC period.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    For broad inflation that will concern the Fed, one factor that will be needed along with steadily rising prices is strong wage growth. The second big report today was Q1 wages in the BLS Employment Cost Index (ECI). The ECI does a better job of measuring wage growth than other series because it accounts for changes in the composition of employment over time. As shown in the chart below, Q3 saw the strongest sequential wage growth on record, with a 4.6% annualized advance in wages versus Q4. Some of that came from incentive-paid occupations, which benefit from bonuses and related payments, skewing the results. As shown in the chart, though, there was very strong wage growth even excluding incentive-paid occupations. Anecdotal reports of very tight labor markets amidst booming reopening demand got support from this release.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE MONDAY'S MARKET OPEN!)

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

    Monday 5.3.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Monday 5.3.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Tuesday 5.4.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Tuesday 5.4.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

    Wednesday 5.5.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Wednesday 5.5.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #4!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #5!)

    Thursday 5.6.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #4!)

    Thursday 5.6.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #4!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #5!)

    Friday 5.7.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Friday 5.7.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

    PayPal $262.29

    PayPal (PYPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, May 5, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.01 per share on revenue of $5.90 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.99 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 60.32% with revenue increasing by 27.76%. Short interest has increased by 9.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.4% above its 200 day moving average of $221.46. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 12, 2021 there was some notable buying of 18,731 contracts of the $270.00 call and 18,431 contracts of the $270.00 put expiring on Friday, June 18, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.5% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Pfizer, Inc. $38.65

    Pfizer, Inc. (PFE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Tuesday, May 4, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.79 per share on revenue of $13.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.85 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.25% with revenue increasing by 13.40%. Short interest has decreased by 7.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.8% above its 200 day moving average of $36.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 26, 2021 there was some notable buying of 21,839 contracts of the $40.00 call expiring on Friday, July 16, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Square, Inc. $244.82

    Square, Inc. (SQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, May 6, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.17 per share on revenue of $3.31 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.23 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 950.00% with revenue increasing by 139.66%. Short interest has increased by 13.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.5% above its 200 day moving average of $198.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 26, 2021 there was some notable buying of 3,357 contracts of the $250.00 put expiring on Friday, June 18, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 8.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.6% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Roku Inc $342.97

    Roku Inc (ROKU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, May 6, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $490.56 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.04 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $478.00 million to $493.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 66.67% with revenue increasing by 52.93%. The stock has drifted lower by 25.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.4% above its 200 day moving average of $284.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, April 29, 2021 there was some notable buying of 1,875 contracts of the $400.00 call expiring on Friday, May 7, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.8% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Peloton Interactive $98.35

    Peloton Interactive (PTON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, May 6, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.11 per share on revenue of $1.11 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.03) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 45.00% with revenue increasing by 111.59%. Short interest has increased by 41.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 34.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.3% below its 200 day moving average of $110.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 16, 2021 there was some notable buying of 4,629 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Friday, June 18, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    General Motors Corp. $57.22

    General Motors Corp. (GM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, May 5, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.01 per share on revenue of $32.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 62.90% with revenue decreasing by 0.12%. Short interest has increased by 11.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 35.2% above its 200 day moving average of $42.33. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, April 21, 2021 there was some notable buying of 14,871 contracts of the $63.00 call expiring on Friday, May 21, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    DraftKings Inc. $56.66

    DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Friday, May 7, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.41 per share on revenue of $230.08 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.44) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2,150.00% with revenue increasing by ∞. Short interest has increased by 51.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.5% above its 200 day moving average of $50.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, April 15, 2021 there was some notable buying of 10,709 contracts of the $65.00 call expiring on Friday, May 7, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Moderna, Inc., $178.82

    Moderna, Inc., (MRNA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, May 6, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.04 per share on revenue of $2.19 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 682.86% with revenue increasing by 26,005.61%. Short interest has decreased by 19.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 18.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 60.3% above its 200 day moving average of $111.57. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 16, 2021 there was some notable buying of 10,955 contracts of the $190.00 call expiring on Friday, July 16, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.4% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    CVS Health $76.40

    CVS Health (CVS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, May 4, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.72 per share on revenue of $68.38 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.77 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 9.95% with revenue increasing by 2.43%. Short interest has decreased by 6.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.5% above its 200 day moving average of $68.50. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, April 21, 2021 there was some notable buying of 20,584 contracts of the $65.00 call expiring on Friday, May 21, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Corsair Gaming, Inc. $33.18

    Corsair Gaming, Inc. (CRSR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, May 4, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.30 per share on revenue of $449.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.38 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 9.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 29.4% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 17.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.6% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    I hope you all have a wonderful Sunday and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
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    CLOV hype and those hyping it.

    Posted: 02 May 2021 11:11 AM PDT

    CLOV might be the greatest play in the history of investments. However, I've started looking at the comment history of some of the profiles hyping this stock and it's all comments that have come in the past couple of months, and all of them are devoted to CLOV stock jumping.

    No additional comments, no additional interests.

    Granted, I haven't looked at 100% of the CLOV OPs, but I have looked at 5 or 6 and none of them have cake days prior to Jan 1, 2021 and none of them have comments about anything but CLOV. It's entirely possible there's nothing to see here and this is perfectly normal... but I have to ask those wiser than me who would benefit if shares of CLOV were snatched up? Who would want a reduction in float for CLOV shares? Is this a squeeze in the making and who would or could start hyping the stock to gin up the price and lower the available shares?

    These aren't leading questions, I would sincerely like to hear from those who understand this better than I do.

    submitted by /u/avaheli
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    Financial Post had a great piece on WELL Health this morning

    Posted: 01 May 2021 06:10 PM PDT

    Most analysts I have ever seen respond to a short report...

    https://financialpost.com/investing/short-sellers-dont-always-win-and-shouldnt-get-the-glory

    Really sheds light on the current market we are in. " If you own a great company their is no reason to worry" . Excited to see what this company does in its future.

    submitted by /u/cheeselover556
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    The American Jobs Plan, How it Will be Paid, and What it Means for the Stock Market

    Posted: 02 May 2021 11:06 AM PDT

    Here's some charts that distribute the allocations of President Biden's $2T Infrastructure Plan or American Jobs Plan. Dollar value is approximate.

    Since r/stocks doesn't allow images to be upload, you will have to see all my sub-par looking charts here.

    More details on how the American Jobs Plan...

    Who is going to pay for this?

    We the people. Well more like we the 1%ers. And corporations.

    Again, I made more charts to visualize it a bit better.

    So unless you're a high earner, this won't affect you (much). I made these charts about a week or two ago but I heard for the American Families Plan, individuals earning more than $452,700 and married couples earning more than $509,300 (meaning each partners could earn less than $400,000) could see a tax increase.

    ​

    What do you mean, "won't affect you (much)"?

    If there's tax increases for the rich, what will the rich do? They'll take their stock market gains before the tax increases. 2020 saw huge gains so we may see a correction in the coming months. How much of a correction you ask? I don't know but I would guess 10-15% in the broader market. More if you're into speculative high growth stocks. I say that because I know a lot of you have positions on them. Careful how you invest these next few months.

    And if there's tax increases for corporations, obviously they'll do whatever they can to avoid them. However even a 1% increase in their taxes (note below I mention that many corporations pay very little taxes because of loopholes) will affect their bottom line. This means earnings will be less and therefore lower stock valuations.

    So if the rich sell and corporations are being taxed more, how will that affect the stock market?

    1. Less incentive to invest due to more taxes. People will look to other investments or stay cash. (Seriously though, the tax plan won't make a huge difference unless you're a 1%er.)
    2. Bonds become more favorable. Income from bonds issued by state, city, and local governments (municipal bonds, or munis) is generally free from federal taxes. You will, however, have to report this income when filing your taxes. Examples: MUB, HYD, VOHIX, VWAHX.
    3. ETFs and Mutual funds are more favorable. They both are taxed at the long-term capital gains rate of 0%, 15%, and 20% depending on your earnings. ETFs, however, have an advantage over mutual funds due to three reasons: 1) 2018, 89% of ETFs were passive vs. 4% of mutual funds. Less trading involved with passive. 2) Any high dividend or high interest paying securities will receive more distributions, therefore a high tax bill. 3) ETFs have greater liquidity as they are traded during market hours vs. mutual funds are traded at the beginning and end of market sessions.

    *In 2018, Goldman Sachs did a study that showed 100% of their ETFs did not pay capital gains. Broadly, 90% of ETFs did not pay capital gains compared to 39% of mutual funds.

    1. Tax advantaged accounts like Roth IRA and 401K are more favorable. If you're one of the super rich, take a look at the backdoor Roth IRA. It's a way for super rich people to put money into retirement without the contribution limits. Roth IRA contribution limit is $6,000 per year. BUT if you make more than $140,000 as a single or $206,000 filing jointly as married then you cannot contribute to a Roth IRA. The easiest way to get by this is converting a traditional IRA account to a Roth IRA account.

    ​

    What does history say about stock market performance after tax increases?

    "In the 13 previous instances of tax increases just since 1950, the S&P 500, the stock index that tracks most of the major companies in the US, has shown higher average returns, and higher odds of an advance, in times when taxes are increasing, according to Chisholm's research, which analyzed the data in the calendar year of the tax changes, plus the year prior and year after. This pattern holds true even when you drill down into key sectors of the S&P 500." Here's a chart of the S&P500 performance after tax increases. Not too bad eh?

    ​

    What's happening now with the current tax law?

    • 91 Fortune 500 companies paid $0 in federal corporate taxes. Amazon, Chevron, Halliburton, and IBM are some of those companies. Corporate tax rate is currently 21%.
    • 56 Fortune 500 companies paid 0-5% on their 2018 income.
    • 2017 tax bill cut the average rate that corporations paid in half from 16 percent to less than 8 percent in 2018. I couldn't find any data on this but its due to loopholes in the tax system.

    The Made in America Tax plan

    • Will raise over $2 trillion over the next 15 years and more than pay for the mostly one-time investments in the American Jobs Plan and then reduce deficits on a permanent basis.
    • Increase corporate tax rate at 28% from 21%
    • Right now, the tax code rewards U.S. multinational corporations that shift profits and jobs overseas with a tax exemption for the first ten percent return on foreign assets, and the rest is taxed at half the domestic tax rate.
    • The proposal will increase the minimum tax on U.S. corporations to 21 percent and calculate it on a country-by-country basis so it hits profits in tax havens. It will also eliminate the rule that allows U.S. companies to pay zero taxes on the first 10 percent of return when they locate investments in foreign countries.
    • The United States is now seeking a global agreement on a strong minimum tax through multilateral negotiations.
    • Invert the current law in which U.S. corporations can acquire or merge with a foreign company to avoid U.S. taxes by claiming to be a foreign company, even though their place of management and operations are in the United States.
    • A proposal that companies can no longer write off expenses that come from offshoring jobs. Instead a tax credit will be proposed to support onshoring jobs.
    • Invert a Trump tax law for "Foreign Derived Intangible Income" (FDII), which gave corporations a tax break for shifting assets abroad and is ineffective at encouraging corporations to invest in R&D. Instead the revenue will be used to expand more effective R&D investment incentives.
    • Enact a minimum tax of 15% on large corporations' book income.
    • Eliminate tax preferences (worth billions of dollars) for fossil fuels and make sure polluting industries pay for environmental clean up.
    • Increase enforcement for tax evasion. Typical workers' wages are reported to the IRS and their employer withholds, so they pay all the taxes they owe. By contrast, large corporations have at their disposal loopholes they exploit to avoid or evade tax liabilities, and an army of high-paid tax advisors and accountants who help them get away with this. At the same time, an under-funded IRS lacks the capacity to scrutinize these suspect tax maneuvers: A decade ago, essentially all large corporations were audited annually by the IRS; today, audit rates are less than 50 percent.

    ​

    So what should I do to prepare if this bill passes?

    Nothing different honestly. Keep investing. DCA - dollar cost average if your stocks drop. Stay the course in your high conviction names. De-risk if you have to by investing in safer investments like index funds or ETFs. I know a lot of you are into SPAX (special purpose acquisition companies. I spelled it this way in case this sub banned the real acronym) and other speculative companies. There's almost 500 of them out there. 217 of those were from 2020. To be honest, 1% of those companies will moon. Most of them won't see a return for years. Are you willing to hold them without knowing they will moon in 5-10 years? Some may not even make a return. Make sure you understand market conditions. Stocks really do go up but its only the ones that are backed by strong earnings and potential. Don't get burned. Money is not everything but it's a tool to bring you financial freedom sooner in life. You know what they say, "there's only two things guaranteed in life: death and taxes".

    submitted by /u/reggiebergst
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    European investor: Small cap value & opinion about allocation

    Posted: 02 May 2021 01:19 PM PDT

    Hi all

    After watching Ben Felix on YouTube I have decided to include small cap value ETFs in my portfolio.

    Small cap values are likely to outperform growth ETFs in the long run.

    I am thinking about the following (I am in Europe)

    IWDA 40% ZPRV 20% ZPRX 10% EMIM 10% IS3R 20%

    What do you think?

    submitted by /u/makaros622
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    Let's talk II-VI Inc. ($IIVI)

    Posted: 02 May 2021 06:40 AM PDT

    So I recently came across this company which looked quite interesting to me, given the large variety of usecases for their technologies in growing sectors. I'll try myself at a little writeup to provide some context and serve as a basis for discussion. I'd love to get some opinions and CC from more experienced traders, since this is my first time researching a stock.

    So IIVI defines itself as follows:

    "II-VI Incorporated is a global leader in engineered materials, optoelectronic components and optical systems offering vertically integrated solutions for applications in industrial, communications, aerospace & defense, life sciences, semiconductor capital equipment, automotive and consumer electronics." (taken from their website)

    Their customers are names like Apple, Facebook and Boeing, among others.

    Looking at their financials, they seem to be doing alright. Given their numerous acquisitions, with a pretty significant recent purchase of Coherent (COHR), an increase in revenue as well as accumulating debt mid-term is to be expected. (data taken from yahoo finance)

    • steadily growing revenue, gross profits and free cashflow
    • continuously beat earnings expectations for past 4 quarters

    but also increasing debt, and a relatively bad 2020, with a negative EPS of -0.79.

    As mentioned, IIVI has recently acquired COHR, rendering them the leader in the laser technology sector.

    The closing price of IIVI was 67$ on friday, which is a 33% discount from ATH. They had dropped previsously during the COHR acquisition bidding wars, but had temporarily recovered up to 83$ after winning them. Current downwards movement is likely caused by uncertainty regarding their upcoming earnings call on May 6th.

    I see potential for a pretty decent recovery mid- to long-term, granted that currently the growth and innovative tech sectors are not looking to hot.

    Thanks for reading, and please do feel free to drop your opinions on the stock and this post :)

    submitted by /u/LobbitInTheDark
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    Short volume on stock tickers

    Posted: 02 May 2021 06:00 AM PDT

    I feel it's unfair for shorts to have all the data to make a valued pick for shorting, they have our volume, 52 week high/low. Daily high/low and loads of other information. However, the only thing we don't get in return is short volume and a constant idea of what it is. We have to look at dark pools, look at the 15 day old report of short interest. It's highly unfair that bulls are getting shafted. Shorts can buy on leverage, bulls gotta pay full price.

    submitted by /u/ywev
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    All this talk of overvaluation... OK, where SHOULD the S&P be now and when will present valuation be fair?

    Posted: 02 May 2021 01:46 PM PDT

    There's been a lot of "correction" or "market crash" talk the last few days (heck, even at W S B they are talking about it).

    So anyway, if the market is overvalued, then at what S&P index price would it NOT be overvalued? 4000? 3750? 3500?

    And after how many years (other things being equal) would it take for the present ~4150 valuation to—in fact—be fairly valued?

    submitted by /u/peachezandsteam
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    What brokerage that works in the EU would you recommend for investing in funds like the Vanguard VOO?

    Posted: 02 May 2021 09:56 AM PDT

    I've been using Revolut for trading stocks but I want to start putting money into Index funds and ETFs to save up for later in life. Doesn't have to be VOO specifically but I've read a few threads on here about good funds but they recommend Fidelity and Vanguard ones like that one for S&P500. Unfortunately neither of those platforms are available in the EU so I was wondering if any brokerages here offered these or similar ones to put money into?

    submitted by /u/HBB360
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    Annual expected retunr of ETF-based portfolio

    Posted: 02 May 2021 08:56 AM PDT

    Hi all

    If I hold 3 ETFs

    A with allocation 50%

    B with allocation 30%

    C with allocation 20%

    and A, B, C have average annualized returns over the period of 10y as 10%, 11%, and 12%

    how can I estimate the average excepted return of my whole portfolio? Just as the average weighted returns?

    submitted by /u/makaros622
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    Oil play for the summer

    Posted: 01 May 2021 09:53 PM PDT

    Goldman Sachs is predicting that the oil price can hit 80 after summer reopening. Which of the ETF's are good for short term play and tracks oil price? Or companies like XOM or BP will be good for 3-4 months?

    submitted by /u/i_am_mr_blue
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    I find earnings and estimates aren't always moving prices in the same direction.

    Posted: 02 May 2021 09:16 AM PDT

    I find earning reports and whether businesses beat estimates don't always move prices in the same direction. In fact they act like news sometimes, i.e. going opposite direction.

    Can anyone recall any research done before that correlates earnings and price movement post announcement?

    submitted by /u/wingchun777
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    Cash holding question. How much %

    Posted: 02 May 2021 10:19 AM PDT

    Hello

    I'm kind of new into investing. Since October 1st. I had 25k so i invested all of it and glad i did. Yup over 15 percent.

    But i rent to be prepared for a downturn, and when a few stocks dropped hard in February i had no cash to buy more

    So I'm building a cash reserve in my stock accounts so i can click and but instantly if needed. I invest 500 to 800 a month. So should i not buy any stocks until i have 5k in cash. Then keeping 20 percent aside, therefore buy 500 in stocks and 200 in cash each month. Or is it a waste?

    Thank you

    submitted by /u/bigal77
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    Waste Management (NYSE: $WM) stock DD i wrote for a discord I'm in

    Posted: 01 May 2021 07:10 PM PDT

    When searching for a company to do a DD on this week for this Discord, I initially was struggling to land on a company. There are just so many dividend growth companies on my watchlist that I didn't know where to start. Initially I was wanting to do a write up on HanesBrands, ticker $HBI, due to everyone needing underwear and socks but then I realized I hadn't put on underwear since I got home from work on Friday, so I just couldn't bring myself to break that streak to product test this company as thoroughly as I would have liked. However, this did lead me to throwing away some older underwear from the back of my drawer and having to race out to get them in the bin before the truck picked up this morning. Funnily enough, it was this little act that led me down the rabbit hole of America's first, largest, and objectively best waste management company, $WM. This write up will attempt to go over some of the reasons I view $WM as a prime choice for any dividend growth investor who is seeking to add to their industrial holdings by buying a company worth holding for 20+ years, including some basic financial information, how WM can grow into the future, as well as some potential problems with the stock that I see. Finally I am not a financial advisor and this is written purely for the purpose of sharing some publicly available stock info in the form of a poorly written, weed induced WM DD, I hope you enjoy.

    The aptly named Waste Management, ticker symbol $WM, is an industrial sector powerhouse with first mover-advantage specializing in the waste management sub-sector that has been slowly and steadily raising its dividend over the last 18 years. Waste Management operates primarily with four different revenue streams consisting of waste collection, landfill operations, waste transportation, and finally, recycling. It is with these four primary sources of revenue that allow $WM to boast a current dividend yield of 1.68% with a yearly dividend of $2.30 paid out quarterly in March, June, September, and December. This dividend represents a payout ratio of only 53% which is not very high at all and is actually very sustainable. In fact, it has a dividend safety score of 98 from simplysafedividends.com and is over where management is aiming for their dividend to be (between 40-50% according to their 2020 Investors day presentation.) In addition to being very sustainable, a payout ratio of 53% also leaves room for growth, and $WM has been doing just that. While it's 4 year average dividend yield is just slightly higher at 1.98% compared to todays at 1.68% the amount that yield represents has been growing at an average rate of 41.46% over the last 5 years, 28.24% over the last 3 years, and even in the shitstorm that was 2020, WM raised its dividend by 6.34% just showing that this company not only cares about it's dividend growth, but that it can easily afford to raise its dividend as one important thing to note is that during the last 18 years (since 2004) of consistent dividend increases, the payout ratio has more or less remained unchanged, maintaining managements preferred 40-50% payout ratio with occasional outbreaks such as where we are currently due to a contagious outbreak that rocked the entire world. Finally, Waste Management has a Current Price of ≅ $138, an analyst price range of $125-$160, and an average analyst price target of $144 showing some room for this stock to still raise or fall to a better entry point if it does fall to test the lower analysts prediction.

    Moving on from the dividend and surface level stock price breakdowns, $WM has a current P/E ratio of 37.7 and I know this might seem very high, it actually isn't when you compare it to other waste management companies. For instance, WM's next three largest competitors are Republic Services, with a P/E of 35.2, Clean Harbor, with a P/E of 36.7, and Waste Connections, which has a huge P/E of 141.13 (this is the only one of the three that I went and checked multiple sites and yes, it really is that big...) As you can see, a P/E ratio in the low to mid 30's basically comes with the territory of being in the waste management sub-sector. Just as the P/E ratio comes with the sub-sector; growth in the form of acquisitions will almost always bring some additional debt as its +1, and this is the next aspect of $WM's balance sheet that I want to touch on. In 2019 Waste Management achieved a major milestone for any company, it officially made enough to fully pay down it's yearly short term debt and pay off future long term debt, an achievement it had not completed since at least 2016 (and possibly before but this is the furthest back I could find regarding short term debt payments). Regardless, this is still an important feat as it shows that $WM is making enough money to support not only a growing dividend, but also additional amounts of debt to fund new acquisitions now and in the future. Now how can I make the claim that they can afford to take even more debt on? Well in 2020 (yeah the shitiest of shity years for businesses) $WM paid off all their short term debt and an additional $7.8 Billion in long term debt as well, just showing the strength of it's balance sheet and how the acquisitions it's made are paying off in time.

    Finally the last bit of financial digging I did resulted in me coming across something that did cause me to pause and I feel that any decent DD should include some potential negatives to put the positives into a better, more complete light. The elephant in the room in regards to Waste Management is it's unusually high P/B ratio of 7.7ish. While this ratio is generally not as important in the industrial waste management compared to say the financial sector, it is still important to compare it to its peers. The same three competitors mentioned above all have lower P/B ratios than $WM. Ultimately this just means it is slightly overpriced compared to its book value, this can be explained away simply by the fact that in 2019, seeing that it could pay off all it's short term debt, Waste Management added a large amount of debt to its balance sheet so that it could buy new acquisitions, one such acquisition was Advanced Disposal for 4.6 Billion. This higher P/B ratio also explains Morningstars 2 star rating. However my response to this information is just this: If you plan to buy and hold a stock for 20 years, isn't it better to open your position early, accrue dividends and price appreciation, while buying dips, than to just wait for its P/B ratio to dip down to a level you're more comfortable with? Especially considering that there is a very good chance that as the debt goes down as the acquisitions begin paying for themselves, so too will the P/B ratio fall.

    Moving on from financials and more towards hard assets, Waste Managements true strength starts to take form as it truly lives up to what one imagines from a company with first-mover advantage in its respective sub-sector. The company services over 20 million residential and 2 million commercial customers in 48 US States, Canada, DC, and Puerto Rico. $WM has a total of 293 active landfills with an average remaining lifespan of 22 years per landfill. They also have 346 waste transfer/consolidation stations, 146 recycling centers making it the largest recycling network in the nation , 16 waste to energy facilities that burn up to 23,000 pounds of trash to generate up to 670 MW/hour of electrical/steam energy, enough to power 660,000 homes. Waste Management also boasts 4 new Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) facilities that have already created more than 16 million gallons of RNG since coming online. This is enough RNG to power 1/3 of their 26,000 strong fleet and sell the remaining to local energy companies that then use the RNG to power roughly 460,000 homes. Finally every other landfill that WM owns and operates that isn't a special waste-to-energy or RNG facility also has some more basic ways to capture the methane that comes naturally with decomposing trash and sells that to local gas-to-energy companies that use the supplied methane to help power an additional 180,000 homes per year, bringing the total number of homes powered by trash to a whopping 1.3 million and WM only plans to raise that number to over 2 million in the coming years.

    The last aspect of Waste Management that I want to discuss is their future growth prospects and why I am bullish on them as a company overall despite the higher than average P/B ratio the company currently has. Everyone creates waste and we all need that waste taken away somewhere so that we can live the normal lives we have become accustomed to. In addition to being the largest, the first, and objectively the best waste management company, $WM is also investing heavily into renewable energy by harnessing the naturally occurring methane and other RNG's that are simply by-products of their primary business. In addition to selling the naturally produced energy that they found themselves having on their hands, $WM has also found a way to make money off of full and capped landfills by taking advantage of existing power lines that run to and from local electrical infrastructure turning them into solar farms and boosting the local power supply. Waste Management is also currently undergoing a change in it's payment model, a shift away from a flat rate bundled model that didn't take into account the costs of processing and holding the waste $WM picks up, and is changing to a fee-for-service model which will take into account everything from pick-up to transport, to recycling to even the costs it takes to turn that waste into energy. This move will essentially turn every action $WM takes into a way to make money. By providing such an essential service that no-one is exempt from needing, $WM has positioned itself amazingly to continue being the industry leader in waste management for decades to come. And that is no understatement, Waste Management has proven to be a very sticky company with a customer typically being a customer for 10+ years. The final aspect of $WM's growth potential I want to dig up hits closer to home for me and those in Texas than others, and that is Waste Management basically has a monopoly in Texas. Yes there are competitors here, but between being headquartered in Houston which is the 4th largest city in the nation and rapidly growing, and having cornered the market in the new silicon valley cities of San Antonio and Austin, $WM can rest easily knowing they have future customers for years to come.

    Overall I am extremely bullish on Waste Management and see this as an investment to hold for the 25 to 30 years I have left until retirement and honestly, with $WM I might get to retirement early, and while investing in trash might not be a dirty job, as someone who grew up watch Mike Rowe, I think it's only fitting that I make my portfolio get a little dirty to make money.

    submitted by /u/TheFondestComb
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    Interested to know what others are buying?

    Posted: 02 May 2021 10:32 AM PDT

    Hi, guys, I created investing web application/resource for people to anonymously share what they are buying on the marketing. This resource would help me and others see what stocks are currently being bought and may help trigger some investment decisions. Everything is totally anonymous! Of course make sure to do your DD!

    Link: https://globalstockbuyerviewer.herokuapp.com/

    Please take down this post if not allowed. Thanks!

    Although I know there are some flaws feel free to comment on what needs to be improved/added. All feedback is appreciated!

    submitted by /u/Sirinji_
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    What affect do stock offerings have on support levels?

    Posted: 02 May 2021 12:36 PM PDT

    Say Company XYZ completes a stock offering and issues the new shares at $50.

    Obviously offerings are theoretically dilutive, but my thought is that since so much (presumably largely institutional) money was spent buying the stock at its offering price that there would be willingness to buy again at/around that price.

    Am I off base?

    submitted by /u/Asinus_Sum
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    Thoughts on CCL for the Summer...

    Posted: 02 May 2021 11:57 AM PDT

    I am thinking about summer Calls and buying shares for CCL. I wanted to see what others are thinking about the stock. One thought I had was the fact that they scrapped a lot of ships early in the pandemic. Will this cause a problem for them if demand rises? I think so.

    submitted by /u/turkeyremis
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    Query regarding selling shares?

    Posted: 02 May 2021 04:47 AM PDT

    Hi guys, quick Q. My mum inherited shares a number of years ago and is looking to offload them now. We are confused with how much we can sell them for; it says ordinary shares = 0.027p but on the LSE it says 113p. Can someone shed some light? Thanks in advance 👍

    submitted by /u/senseihood
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    Which FAAMG stocks do you think have the most potential 5-10 years?

    Posted: 01 May 2021 06:38 PM PDT

    Not asking for recommendations but curious to hear thoughts. FAAMG, as Goldman Sachs defines as Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Google, (Not to be confused with Jim Cramer's FAANG, which substitutes Netflix for Microsoft) have been among the most dominant players in terms of growth, volume and market cap.

    All of them have an arguably strong role to play in our society in the many years to come.

    I am curious to hear if anyone is particularly bullish or bearish on the outlook for any of these mammoth companies?

    Some focus questions: Do you think either of them are particularly positioned to dominate a new sector? Have some grown so large that they will stagnant from here? Do some now face legal risks because of alleged anti-competitiveness?

    submitted by /u/donemessedup123
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    About 87% of Companies in the S&P have beaten analyst estimates, set to be the higgest beat rate on record since 1994

    Posted: 01 May 2021 04:36 PM PDT

    https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-week-ahead-blow-out-us-earnings-suggest-market-has-room-run-2021-04-30/

    Article for those who want to scroll through quickly:

    U.S. companies are leaping above expectations on first-quarter earnings, giving investors stronger confirmation that profit growth will be able to support the market this year.

    A big piece of that growth is coming once again from technology and growth companies, which suggests greater durability in companies that underperformed more economically focused value names for months.

    Earnings are rebounding from last year's pandemic-fueled lows. With results in from more than half of the S&P 500 companies, earnings are now expected to have risen 46% in the first quarter from the previous year, compared with forecasts of 24% growth at the start of the month, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

    About 87% of reports have come in ahead of analysts' estimates for earnings per share, putting the quarter on track to have the highest beat rate on record going back to 1994, when Refinitiv began tracking the data.

    Some strategists say the stronger-than-expected earnings could drive a richly valued market higher still. The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) is trading at about 23 times forward earnings, above the long-average of about 15, based on Refinitiv's data.

    "The earnings results are really not being fully priced in yet, and that's because you're seeing estimates for the back half of the year start to pick up now in response to this better-than expected environment. That says to us there's still more room," said Eric Freedman, chief investment officer at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.

    The high percentage of beats also follows many quarters where companies were holding off on giving guidance on the future, making it harder for analysts to estimate results for this year.

    Citing stronger earnings, Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist and head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse Securities, on Friday raised his 2021 S&P 500 price target to 4,600 from 4,300. The S&P 500 index (.SPX) was last at about 4,180.

    Stocks have had little reaction to results overall so far. The S&P 500 is up more than 11% since Dec. 31. The index is up less than 2% since mid-April when the earnings period kicked in to high gear, but remains near record highs.

    Earnings also are raising some fresh questions in the debate over growth versus value. After a decade of steadily under-performing the overall market, value has been a favorite among some investors as a bet on the reopening of the economy.

    However, "tech is showing an ability ... to still create as good, if not superior, sales growth to cyclicals. That's what I find amazing," said David Bianco, Americas chief investment officer for DWS.

    "Tech is as much as of a reopening play as everybody else," he said.

    Investors will be watching reports in the weeks ahead to see if the trend continues. Results are expected next week from a wide range of companies including Activision Blizzard (ATVI.O), Cummins Inc (CMI.N), ConocoPhillips (COP.N) and Pfizer Inc (PFE.N).

    The first-quarter results come after a months-long rally in value stocks as investors bet on the reopening of businesses as COVID-19 vaccines became more available.

    Value has outperformed growth names that include heavily weighted technology stocks, and for the year so far, the Russell 1000 value index (.RLV) remains up about 15%, while the Russell 1000 growth index (.RLG) is up about 8% in that time.

    Technology-related companies as well as banks - value trade favorites - have had the largest percentage point contribution to estimated first-quarter S&P 500 earnings, with JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and Apple Inc (AAPL.O) at the top of the list, based on Refinitiv's data.

    Tech (.SPLRCT) is also among the strongest sectors for year-over-year sales growth for the quarter, Bianco noted.

    While the risks of higher inflation and possibly higher taxes have given some investors reason to become more cautious on growth shares, earnings may make them think twice about avoiding the group.

    "It pays for a lot of investors to be balanced between value and growth," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute in St. Louis.

    "We're actually carving out a third group ... defensives," he said, adding that those are the areas for investors to avoid for now.

    Its hard to find a bearish view on the current market situation when so many companies are beating earnings. Maybe in the short term we'll see some volatility as we finish getting through earnings season, but I don't think we'll see much more falling, if any.

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