Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- I am no longer picking stocks. It's ETFs for me.
- Nasdaq, NYSE Sue SEC over planned overhaul of public data feeds
- A Look at the FDA Approval Process and How it Affects Your Investments
- $TLRY and $APHA Merger Arbitrage
- A rough Analysis on Toyota Motors
- Fed Chairman Powell: "Real" unemployment rate is at 10%, rates will remain low
- Oil companies and EV charging infrastructure
- Shaq, Lebron James, & former TikTok CEOs SPAC announce $3B merger with Beachbody
- Mastercard to open up network to select cryptocurrencies
- Don't File Your Taxes Early Under Some Circumstances
- Random Facts for the Automated VTI Investor (including the best day of week to invest)
- DD research advice for newcomers
- American Battery Metals: The long game
- Are we in times of placeholders companies
- Investing in employee options sale through third party sites like equity zen
- How Do You Prepare to Buy a Dip
- Salesforce Work From Home, Investing Opportunities
- Multiple Reported EPS numbers
- Young and ready for aggressive investing... but nervous about bullish market
- Retired but still would like to grow my portfolio
- Twitter 2020 Income Tax Liability
- Robinhood is screwing me over
- How do brokers fill option orders with multiple legs
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 11 Feb 2021 02:00 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| I am no longer picking stocks. It's ETFs for me. Posted: 10 Feb 2021 12:00 PM PST I've been investing for a couple years. Most of my stock picks have been large cap companies, lots of tech and consumer products. I follow trends, buy the dip, yadda yadda. About a year ago I started putting extra money into ETFs. For those, I have focused on tech heavy funds, clean energy, next gen stuff- all Vanguard or low cost funds. Now that my portfolio is split evenly between individual stocks and ETFs, I've noticed a surprising trend: My ETFs beat my stock picks almost every day. Today is a great example- in a mixed market, my individual stocks are (collectively) down -$195, but my ETFs are (collectively) up $110. And it is like this fairly consistently. On a good day for the markets as a whole, my ETFs are always beating my stock picks. Sure, there are times I have an individual stock that might pop and outperform my ETFs, but more regularly, my collective stock picks rarely outperform my collection of ETF picks. I guess I am just saying that I am done trying to pick the next winning stock, spending my valuable time pouring over charts and digging through the news for rumors. I am liquidating my individual stocks and dumping it all back into my ETF picks at the next market dip. [link] [comments]  |
| Nasdaq, NYSE Sue SEC over planned overhaul of public data feeds Posted: 10 Feb 2021 05:56 AM PST source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sec-lawsuit-nyse-nasdaq-idUSKBN2AA09P This article is short and doesn't elaborate much on what the effects of giving public access to supply and demand data are. Sueing the SEC seems like another way to stifle access to information for retail investors disguised as a means to protect them. I have a lot of bias right now against institutional entities and I'm interested in what people have to say about this and whether or not this is more sensational news for clicks. I couldn't find a source with specifics about what the SECs overhaul would look like so I'm torn on how I feel about this. Edit: For those seeking further context, look through some of the great discussions in the comments! [link] [comments]  |
| A Look at the FDA Approval Process and How it Affects Your Investments Posted: 10 Feb 2021 05:47 PM PST I've been wanting to do a post like this for a long time now. Now that healthcare has basically been the hottest thing for the last year (and somehow still getting even hotter), I thought it would be a good time. Many people try to buy into pharmaceutical companies around FDA approval targets without truly understanding what they're getting into. Full disclosure, I am a doctor, but I will try to write this in layman's terms as much as possible. If I get anything wrong, I'll be sure to edit the post. To the best of my knowledge, everything I am about to say is researched (and therefore correct). I'm going to go through the entire FDA approval process as a timeline, and then at the end, talk about other things to consider when investing in pharmaceuticals (i.e., more nuanced stuff that requires/applies healthcare understanding). One caveat here is people use "phases" in multiple ways. The way I will use it is the way I see most often being used in press releases and DD on reddit. Preclinical: to begin, you must submit a proposal that basically states why you think a biologic compound will work. Without getting too technical, the preclinical is basically where you demonstrate a proof of concept. Here is a very generic example: Let's say that HIV binds to GME receptor on cells. I have been doing petri dish experiments on a compound I created that prevents anything from binding to GME (this is in vitro if you ever see that term tossed around). I submit this evidence to the FDA and say that I think my compound will work in theory. TONS of things work in vitro and never progress beyond that. At this point, the FDA says, "okay we think your compound might work too, you can start human trials."
Phase 1: Anything that passes preclinical is ready for human trials. We are talking very small trials, like less than 100 people. For smaller companies, this is their chance to get some hype about their pharmaceutical. For anyone who understands the process, this is truly meaningless. Again, working in vitro does not (and likely will not) translate to working in humans. This phase typically lasts several months and is primarily designed to ensure that the drug is safe. Here is a real life example, one that has already garnered a lot of attention: Atossa Therapeutics (ATOS) and their new breast cancer drug. Here is where medical knowledge (or solid research) can really help you. Their new breast cancer drug is called endoxifen. There are already multiple analogues (drugs that work in exactly the same way with minor differences in their chemical structures) on the market. Given the number of safe analogues on the market, it is likely (but not certain) this drug will be safe for human use. It is important to note here that phase 1 trials may be done on healthy participants without any disease, solely to test for safety. Accordingly, passage through phase 1 still may not demonstrate proof of concept on humans who have a particular disease. Let's say that ATOS had announced its intention to start testing breast cancer treatment and initiate phase 1 trials. Like I said, the likelihood of success is pretty high given the success of previous analogues. On the other hand the downside is huge. Companies can essentially go bankrupt at this stage if their "sure thing" drug or medical device fails. Always be sure to look at risk vs reward. A drug that enters phase 1 only has around a 14% likelihood of making it all the way to FDA approval. Certain categories of drugs like those that treat cancer have even lower success rates (3.4%). While FDA drug approval does appear to be increasing more than 80% of drugs that enter this stage will never see market.
Phase 2: Unlike phase 1 that focuses on drug safety, phase 2 tests the efficacy of the drug you are studying. This phase will typically have less than 1,000 participants, but they will all have the disease of interest. In this phase, we are looking to ensure that the drug works (provides statistically significant improvement) and is relatively safe as far as side effects. To limit research bias, sometimes we will divide the participants and give some the drug and keep some as the control group (they may get a placebo or no drug at all). This is a pretty straightforward stage and lasts anywhere from months to years. It really depends on the drug being studied. I would never really expect a mainstream drug to get through this stage in under 6 months. The only conditions in which that would be logically feasible are either:
Lots of companies like to start releasing press releases close to FDA review of phase 2 results. Always be wary of those results. If my breast cancer drug was successful in 600 people and failed in 300, then while the numbers look good, the data may not be there. There is a lot that goes into statistical analysis and it isn't quite as simple as more people did well than did poorly. It's also important to realize that side effect profile is really important. Let's say the aforementioned breast cancer agent ends up prolonging life in 80% of the study participants that received the drug. However, there's also this nasty little side effect of developing a pulmonary embolism in 15-20% of people. That's not insignificant and it is up to the FDA to decide whether or not the risk outweighs the benefit. Sometimes the FDA will order companies to redo this phase if the data are inconclusive. With cancer agents, this is common because the drugs are so toxic to so many parts of the body, so it really is about risk/benefit analysis. The important thing to look at in this phase when comparing the results of the treatment group to the control group is what is called the p-value. For those of you who took stats, you should know what this is. For those that didn't, just know that in healthcare, results with a p-value >0.05 are considered insignificant. It's also important to note that clinical and statistical significance are also key things to remember. Sometimes the benefit of the drug is so minimal that the side effect profile outweighs the benefits and the FDA will prevent the drug from moving forward. It's also important to remember that if this is a drug entering a market where there are competitors, the FDA will look and see if this drug provides enough benefit over existing drugs before making a decision. One more nuance that pharmaceutical companies love to do is change the primary target. In the statistics world, that's a pretty big no-no. If my initial proposal was that the breast cancer agent would prolong the life of my patients, and then suddenly I start talking about how it actually increases their pain-free time, this is a huge red flag. You can deduce that they likely didn't meet their primary target and pivoted to something else they could meet. In any study you can find specific characteristic that makes you look good.
Phase 3: Phase 3 is basically a repeat of phase 2, but bigger. It's used to determine real efficacy of a drug. In raw numbers, we are looking at about 300-3,000 participants and up to 4 years of data. Phase 3 looks at the exact same things as phase 2: efficacy and side effects observed among a treated group (and sometimes compared to a control group). Statistical significance, that is, the thing that tells you whether the drug worked, is based heavily upon power. If you want to increase power, you can increase the sample size. In phase 3, the FDA is giving the drug a chance to sink or swim. They are once again looking to make sure you don't discover any new, obscure side effects and to ensure that the phase 2 results were not a statistical anomaly/the drug really does work. Beyond sample size, the biggest difference between phases 2 and 3 is that we are observing a longer period of time for adverse events. Note the maximum time differences: up to 2 years for phase 2, and up to 4 years for phase 3. There are side effects that don't manifest within the first 2 years. A very simple example is, actually cancer agents that cause cardiac fibrosis or pulmonary fibrosis after years of use. These are things that may have been masked in the phase 2 study because the duration. The other thing is that we may discover rarer, more deadly side effects in this phase. Let's say in phase 2, we found that 2 of our 1,000 participants developed brain cancer. The phase 2 data may show that this was statistically insignificant and cannot be attributed to the drug (remember, sample size is very important). Maybe the phase 3 study will suddenly show that another 8 people developed brain cancer and it was due to the drug.
Phase 4: this is the big phase, thousands of participants, possibly multiple hospitals around the country/world. This phase further increases the power of the data and shows that the drug really, really does work and is actually safe. Getting to phase 4 is actually a pretty big deal. At this point, the company will apply for FDA approval including all of the information they have gathered at this point. In this stage, we are considering not only efficacy and safety, but also simplicity of use, and drug abuse potential. Drug abuse potential is a pretty hot topic right now because, well, opioid epidemic. Many opioids in the last few years have not received FDA approval solely because they are too easily abused. This entire application process takes 6-10 months for the FDA to review all the evidence and decide what happens. It is not uncommon for the FDA to request more data before approving a drug or further review. Many times they will request the company conduct a new study of x to determine y. This is normal but can seriously impede the approval timeline of a drug. This is where you have to remember opportunity cost. After approval it goes to market, yay!
Making it to market: When a drug finally hits market, there are two major things for investors to consider. Let's start with the scary one, removal from the market. Remember how many times I've mentioned power, and sample size above? That becomes super relevant here. Depending on the drug, when it finally reaches market we may have many-fold more "participants" with which we can study the side effects of the drug. Sometimes drugs are pulled from the market because certain side effects emerge that flew under the radar during clinical trial phases. Sometimes the FDA sticks a black box warning on the drug (which really makes doctors stop prescribing it unless they have to). In either care, share prices tend to drop. They will plummet, though, if the FDA removes it from market. Market earnings: The last "opportunity" for investors in the approval process is the sales data after the first quarter of marketing. This is where the company shows their revenue from the sale of the drug. If you have medical knowledge, you can really thrive here. If you don't, you are likely to get screwed because you probably won't understand the nuances in what drives physicians to prescribe drugs and avoid others. Just because a drug works super well doesn't mean it will ever be used. Examples of that are ACRX's new sufentanil agents. Those will likely see poor sales data because from a clinical perspective, even though they are approved, and work, they will almost never be used. You would not know that without understanding the specifics of post-operative pain management. And finally, a disclaimer. Anything I said here, I can be totally wrong. Sufentanil could become the most popular agent on the market for reasons I don't understand or couldn't fathom. Maybe ACRX will have an insanely good marketing team. I am simply talking about making the best decision based on the available knowledge. Stock prices are fickle beasts and they don't always respond the way we expect. A message to those who tend to hold on to their bags to gamble on FDA approval:
If there is anything else you think I should have discussed, just let me know and I will try to add it. [link] [comments]  |
| $TLRY and $APHA Merger Arbitrage Posted: 10 Feb 2021 12:56 PM PST Currently Tilray and Aphria are being mispriced by the market assuming a deal goes through. I see the deal as very likely to happen. The conversion rate for Aphria shares into Tilray shares is 0.8381 which means for every Aphria share you own you get .8381 shares of Tilray. Right now, Tilray is trading around $63 per share. This means that theoretically Aphria should be worth around $52 at the close of the deal. Currently Aphria is trading at a 50% discount. Is the market assuming the deal won't go through. Is Tilray only going up because of a short squeeze. Seems like a good opportunity for a pair trade at this crazy discount. [link] [comments]  |
| A rough Analysis on Toyota Motors Posted: 10 Feb 2021 09:09 PM PST $TM Toyota Motors **Full disclosure: I own 75k in Toyota calls. I also own a Porsche and Audi (no Toyota products). I'm also not good with investing. So don't listen to me. Wow, some of the best plays truly are right in front of you, because Toyota is hilariously undervalued now that they've decided to enter the EV market. Toyota, is an engineering and business legend. Nobody engineers better than Toyota, nobody optimizes businesses and Toyota. When I went through business school we studied Toyota in almost ever classroom. Toyota practically invented modern business practices and engineering practices. If you haven't heard of Toyota as a professional in business or engineering, you should probably be fired. The following statements may sound like opinions, I'm pretty sure they're facts. - Dominates the manufacturing supply practice. Nothing is wasted in Toyota's business, everything runs LEAN and AGILE. During economic downturns Toyota will always come out on top simply because they've perfected the art of efficiency. - The finest engineers work at Toyota. Everything Toyota produces is an engineering marvel. Products optimized perfectly for each single demographic to be as affordable and reliable as possible while being practical and usable. Today, Toyota officially entered the EV business. The company with a perfect supply chain, the company with the highest amount of consumer trust, the company that has the finest engineers in the entire automotive industry and a practically infinite amount of wealth…has entered the room. So let's look at their positioning. - Toyota is bound to be a huge recipient of the Biden's plan to supply the federal government with EVs. - Fun fact, the top "American" companies are asian. The big three make most of their junk abroad. - Toyota is planning on being the first to deploy the SOLID STATE BATTERY. - MASSIVE Energy density compared to existing technology. - Solid state batteries can easily reach 500+ mile range. - Much faster charge time. - Have already begun the production process - Toyota plans on unveiling the first solid state powered EV this year with release soon after. - Toyota produces over 10,000,000 vehicles a year. Tesla reached 500,000 this year with a goal of 20% growth a year. - Toyota is the most trusted brand internationally in the automotive world. So Toyota, a manufacturing behemoth is switching to fully electric with aims of putting their world class engineers to produce the world's first solid state battery commercial vehicle. Nice. Let's talk about some numbers: - Price to book ratio of 1.137. Anything under 3 is considered undervalued. Tesla is around 40. - PE ratio of 17.17. Anything under 20 is undervalued, Apple is at 37 and Tesla is 1301. - Expected to increase margin from 5.5 -> 7.2
If Tesla is the King Kong of the EV world, then Toyota is Godzilla, a nuclear powered dinosaur of a company from outer space. He's landed and he's gonna blow up your bubble. Yes I'm aware of the "Not just a car company" phrase, but as Burry said, "Enjoy it while it lasts", because no company should be trading with a century of growth priced in. Tl;dr Toyota is here and it's going to devour the EV market. Good long term purchase, but I have 75,000$ in calls. Not a Toyota fanboy( I drive a Porsche and Audi). Don't take my advice. [link] [comments]  |
| Fed Chairman Powell: "Real" unemployment rate is at 10%, rates will remain low Posted: 10 Feb 2021 11:57 AM PST
CNBC: The Fed is keeping its benchmark short-term borrowing rate anchored near zero and is buying at least $120 billion of bonds each month. [link] [comments]  |
| Oil companies and EV charging infrastructure Posted: 10 Feb 2021 05:49 PM PST EVs will make up less than 10% of the U.S. market by 2025. US still will need a lot of EV charging stations. Biden's plan outlines 500,000 new EV plugs across the U.S by the end of this decade. With Biden's EV push, it is not surprising that investors have a very rosy expectation about EV charging business. As a result, a flourish of EV charging companies were brought to the market through SPAC mergers. I don't know what is the profit margin for EV charging stations, but one operating company Blink claimed to operate over 20,000 charging stations around the country, but that translated into less than $5 million in revenue over the past year. It currently has a market cap over 2 Billion dollars. Another EV charging company is offering Level 2 charging for free, and make their money from ads posted at their charge station. Oil companies have a lot of experience in operating gas stations, so they have a good understanding of the kind of profit margins you can get from "charging" stations. For many gas stations, 75 percent of their profits comes from the sale of other products, such as food, medicine and accessories. I don't expect the stand-alone EV charge stations can have a high profit margin. Oil companies and EV charging: Oil companies have started their carbon zero move. However, they are waiting in the wings milking their gas station infrastructure, until there are sufficient demand. Oil companies are not just sitting there waiting. Most of the European Oil companies have started their transition because Europe have a lot more EVs on the road today (Norway has more than 50%). In the US, Chevron has tried to convert a few gas stations in California to have EV charging stations, most likely to gain some experience and to gather market and profit margin data. Exxon is "considering", but has not moved yet. [link] [comments]  |
| Shaq, Lebron James, & former TikTok CEOs SPAC announce $3B merger with Beachbody Posted: 10 Feb 2021 01:35 PM PST Some people involved with this (which is honestly a big part of why I'm so excited):
The announcement just came out. Full version. Here are the highlights: "Fitness-and-nutrition business the Beachbody Company Group LLC plans to merge with a blank-check company affiliated with former TikTok Chief Executive Kevin Mayer in a deal that values the combined company at nearly $3 billion." As part of the deal, Myx Fitness LLC, an at-home connected cycling provider, will become part of The Beachbody Company. Beachbody is expected to generate more than $1.1 billion of revenue this year. "Beachbody said it plans to use the capital to expand its sales and digital marketing efforts and to enter new geographies" Other awesome things about FRX:
My Due Diligence: The company is diversified between 3 separate companies, each with complementary but different offerings. The fitness offering, I think, pairs really well with their roster on the team which (as covered above) is highly experienced in sports and media. Peloton is due for a competitor. It's a great platform but its not the solution EVERYONE needs. MYX Fitness' products offer added choice to a marketplace that is foaming at the mouth for more options. The company has been around for over 20 years which is just a nice reassurance Because of how the deal is structured, it appears the company will now be, more than ever, able to expand via acquisitions (they actually mention this in the article) and a HEAVY digital marketing spend. Ticker: FRX (for now) More info: MarketWatch Coverage [link] [comments]  |
| Mastercard to open up network to select cryptocurrencies Posted: 10 Feb 2021 02:40 PM PST (Reuters) - Mastercard Inc said on Wednesday it was planning to offer support for some cryptocurrencies on its network this year, joining a string of big-ticket firms that have pledged similar support. The credit-card giant's announcement comes days after Elon Musk's Tesla Inc revealed it had purchased $1.5 billion of bitcoin and would soon accept it as a form of payment. Asset manager BlackRock Inc and payments companies Square and PayPal have also recently backed cryptocurrencies. Mastercard already offers customers cards that allow people to transact using their cryptocurrencies, although without going through its network. "Doing this work will create a lot more possibilities for shoppers and merchants, allowing them to transact in an entirely new form of payment. This change may open merchants up to new customers who are already flocking to digital assets," Mastercard said. Mastercard specified that not all cryptocurrencies will be supported on its network, adding that many of the hundreds of digital assets in circulation still need to tighten their compliance measures. Many cryptocurrencies have struggled to win the trust of mainstream investors and the general public due to their speculative nature and potential for money laundering. [link] [comments]  |
| Don't File Your Taxes Early Under Some Circumstances Posted: 10 Feb 2021 11:45 AM PST This is partially me venting, but if my experience can help other people here avoid the same mistake, I'm glad to share it. I did my taxes a week ago, thinking it'd be good to it done with since I had some time. I paid a lot in taxes this year since I invested some money when the market was down, figuring the shutdown would end at some point. Seeing how the market rose back so quickly, I sold, thinking we were in a bubble. We may still be, but that isn't the main point of me writing this. The point of it is that the stimulus bill might have an income cap of $75k. Normally, my salary is below the cap that might pass. However, by selling my investments, I made enough money to the point where I passed the $75k mark. Yes, this income cap might not be in the final law, but if it is you should be sure to either A) wait to file if your 2020 income is higher than your past income or B) file quickly if your 2020 income is less than your 2019 income. Also, I know I'm fortunate that I made more money this year, but this is an investing subreddit. Helping people get more money is part of the point of investing. I'm sure an extra $1400 would help a lot of people. I don't have a six figure salary, I just try to be smart with my money and posted this in part to help other people do the same. [link] [comments]  |
| Random Facts for the Automated VTI Investor (including the best day of week to invest) Posted: 10 Feb 2021 09:30 AM PST So this originally started with my interest in finding out 'what day of the week was best to auto-invest in my M1 account'. Using Yahoo Finance historical data for VTI over the past 5 years, I ended up answering this question plus diving deeper to make a few other random observations. Here is what I found:
EDIT: Typo on the lump sum bullet. Previously said today's portfolio value would be $56.2k. [link] [comments]  |
| DD research advice for newcomers Posted: 10 Feb 2021 07:54 AM PST Not wanting to succumb to survivorship bias, and trying to be part of the 10% (or whatever it is) that end up being successful with their investing. I am looking for some advice on exactly what to research companies that I am interested in. I have started looking at the EPS, short interest, growth over different time frames, and market cap; but what else should I look at to decide whether a company is worth my further time and possibly funds? Also, what websites or sources should I use? I have noticed for basically everything I look at, sources vary, sometimes only by a couple decimals, and at other times by almost 20%. I tend to look at yahoo finance, marketwatch, tradingview, trading 212 and a few other ones. Any help much appreciated. [link] [comments]  |
| American Battery Metals: The long game Posted: 10 Feb 2021 06:48 PM PST I've slowly been doing some DD on American Battery Technology Company (ABML<ABTC), and it occurred to me that I knew almost nothing about the patents that Ryan Melsert, their Chief Technology Officer, has filed with the USPTO. I have been interested in this company for quite some time, as I had heard that they have an idea that will make recycling not only possible in today's US EV market, but profitable! If they can pull it off, they will be in a league of their own. Join me, as I do my best at translating the science of recycling. For this DD, I will focus on: THERMOELECTRIC POWER GENERATION AND MINERAL EXTRACTION FROM BRINES Patent Application (Application #20200279987). The novelty of this extraction method is exciting. Most methods today rely on brute force techniques such as acid baths or pyrolysis (using high temperatures to break down materials[dissolution]). What this patent details is a way to collect electricity as well as refine minerals through a series of hydrophobic membranes (thin filter sheets that allow some materials to pass through but not others) to separate desired products. According to the patent, a thermoelectric (TE) module is used with one of the membranes to capitalize on the temperature differential and potentially generate electricity⚡. This means that the process of extracting lithium will yield energy, lowering the cost required for refinement. Ryan Melsert's patent mentions geothermal energy for base-load power generation. Could ABML<ABTC be eyeing geothermal in the future? Is that possible around their first proposed plant in Fernley, NV? I had recently read about some of the new tech that went into recovering shale oil products was slowly migrating into the rare earth metal mining industry. This patent mentions using 'brine from a well' to generate electricity and recover minerals. Being able to utilize injection fluids (the stuff that gets pumped down wells to loosen minerals and then gets sucked back to the surface to be refined) will be key. I am concerned about the durability of ceramic permeable membranes. How expensive are they and who has the ability to manufacture them? Can they be cleaned and reused? Are they easily fouled by macromolecules such as bacteria, proteins, or polysaccharides? Disclaimer: This isn't financial advice. Be a responsible trader. [link] [comments]  |
| Are we in times of placeholders companies Posted: 10 Feb 2021 10:18 PM PST I kinda wish that I was some talking head on Bloomberg or CNBC, because I would term the end of this bull market the placeholder era. Essentially the companies that are performing well are the ones that have stronger footings than others in a space rather than their underlying fundamentals. With long tech equities being the 2nd most crowded position (from a BofA survey of money managers for Jan) a lot of the subsectors like gene editing, electric cars (tech. auto), battery companies, and EV companies are performing because they have invested years in the technology. In conclusion, if this is the case then companies are more like research institutions then they are profit-making machines (normal framework under Freidman). With research institutions the more money and time you "throw" at a project the closer you get to getting it done. If we are really in placeholder era then companies should look at giving companies the most amount of capital they can take, as it is the only variable we can control. I was wondering if you guys agree to this idea and the idea of treating companies like research institutions. [link] [comments]  |
| Investing in employee options sale through third party sites like equity zen Posted: 10 Feb 2021 06:36 PM PST Other than EquityZen, where can accredited investors buy employee stock options for final stage pre-IPO companies? There are some companies that are planning IPOs in the next year or two, and sometimes employees know they won't be keeping their jobs there long term and want to unload their options. This happened to a friend of mine who was working for a company that investors knew would probably be going public in a year or two and that company sent them an introduction email explaining how those offers work. It's an interesting concept to me and I'm aware of the risks involved. I've seen some companies on the Equityzen website but are there any other websites that also offer this service? I understand the entry price-point for these kinds of transactions. [link] [comments]  |
| How Do You Prepare to Buy a Dip Posted: 10 Feb 2021 09:01 AM PST I am considering opening a brokerage account and am wondering how you prepare to buy a dip... Do you keep an amount of cash in your brokerage account that's ready to use to buy an ETF or mutual fund or individual stock? I currently keep all of my cash in a High Yield Savings account and I would expect a transfer from Capital One 360 to a Fidelity brokerage account to take a few business days so that's not ideal. OR Can you trade out of an existing investment into a new investment in just a few taps and minutes? OR what am I not considering? [link] [comments]  |
| Salesforce Work From Home, Investing Opportunities Posted: 10 Feb 2021 04:39 PM PST Salesforce recently announced that it will be rolling out a program for "Flex" scheduling. Stating that employees can work from home indefinitely, even after the pandemic passes. I believe Google as made this announcement as well a few months back. I'm sure other companies will follow suite as well. It seems as though this pandemic has opened the eyes of upper management to the fact that WFH is possible, with minimal losses to productivity. What I suspect this will lead to in the future is a downsizing of corporate/business offices. Why pay for all the space when half your staff doesn't come in to the office anyway? Couple this with cloud computing/hosting, there is an increasing lack of need for physical office space over the next 5-10 years. Other considerations While this business sector is downsizing it's real estate footprint, so too is the retail market. As companies struggle to compete with Amazon and online selling, it is becoming hard to justify keeping a physical stock on hand, in display, in multiple stores across the nation and world. Couple this with infrastructure and logistics of shipping to and from warehouses, liquidated unsold product, you name it. So the question I pose to you is this: When businesses in general reduce their real estate footprint, what happens to that physical land? And is there a way to invest in it's restructuring? There are plenty of shopping plazas across the US that lay barren, as all the shops have closed up. The landlords on that property are now running at a loss with no tenants. Shopping malls are closing, and have been for quite a few years. I believe that the corporate real estate world will start to follow in coming years. I don't believe it will be a complete desolation, but a definite downsizing. Where to park your money The only thing I would think would take their place is housing. Things like apartment buildings mostly. I have noticed an uptrend in a very specific kind of apartment complex becoming popular. A sort of 'mini downtown/city center' high-end luxury apartment. They will build about 3-4 stories tall, and leave the bottom floor available for business such as dry cleaners, small restaurants, or coffee shops. Although these are far from any city center, and act as a standalone building. It's actually quite weird. I am asking you all your opinions on the coming real estate market in these various business sectors. Do you know of any groups/companies/ETFs that could potentially stand to benefit and grow because of it? Thank you [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 10 Feb 2021 10:15 PM PST I'm trying to understand reported earnings per share numbers and am getting super confused. Let's use $AMPY's latest earnings per share as an example. I've looked it up on various websites and they all report different numbers. Take the earnings reported on 11/05/2020 for fiscal quarter ending Sep 2020. Nasdaq, Seeking Alpha, and Macrotrends show -.09, .34, and -.47 respectively. Furthermore I can find 3 other sources of info matching all 3 of those metrics. Finnhub.io's API pull matches Nasdaq's -.09, AlphaVenture's API pull matches Seeking Alpha's .34, and the fundamentals tab in TD Ameritrade's ThinkOrSwim matches Macrotrends -.47. TD Ameritrade specifies that it's a TTM (trailing twelve months) metric so that could be the difference between it and the other 2 numbers. But what else could be the difference between the remaining numbers? I always thought this was just a metric with no ambiguity. Links to the specific earnings numbers and mentioned websites: https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMPY/earnings macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMPY/amplify-energy/eps-earnings-per-share-diluted [link] [comments]  |
| Young and ready for aggressive investing... but nervous about bullish market Posted: 10 Feb 2021 10:24 AM PST I started a company a few years ago that has done really well - and I haven't done anything with my personal cash yet. My focus has always been on re-investing into the company, but now that i'm past the start-up phase, my student loans are completed, I'm maxing out my 401k, and have a healthy low-interest mortgage - its probably time to take some calculated risk and invest in some aggressive stock opportunities. In the little reading that I've been doing over the past couple weeks, my interest is in a spread of ETFs - and all the ARK madness really good - but obviously past success does not indicate future potential here.... and if history has taught us anything, I imagine those stocks will hit a bubble at some point. So -- if you were me, and had ~$100k to invest in some shortish term aggressive stock --- would you risk it in a couple ARKs? My 401k is really what matters for retirement, and my company is stable and will generate healthy revenue --- so I'm comfortable with an aggressive risk..... just feels like poor decision making to buy into something so big when it's at its peak. Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Retired but still would like to grow my portfolio Posted: 10 Feb 2021 04:06 PM PST I'm in my early 50's and retired from medical career on LTD and employer pension. My income is more than enough to meet my expense and this income is supposed to continue till the end. But I still like to build my portfolio to a more comfortable number at-least for my peace of mind and to pass it on to the next generation. Currently my investments are split into 25% in individual stocks , 20% in VTSAX and the rest in VFORX ( 2040'target date fund ). Do I hve it right or should I be moving it around ? I have no debts except less than 30k in mortgage which will be paid off in 2024. [link] [comments]  |
| Twitter 2020 Income Tax Liability Posted: 10 Feb 2021 03:59 PM PST Hey folks, Hoping someone can explain the below statement from Twitter relating to their 2020 taxes
What is a deferred tax asset, and non cash income tax expense? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 10 Feb 2021 01:14 PM PST At this point I have no idea what to do so I'm coming here for advice. I recently transferred my shares in Robinhood to another brokerage and RH withheld a large portion of my shares and deactivated my account so I have no access to my money. I've been sending emails to customer support for days now without response. Right after some of my shares got transferred to the other brokerage, RH said I had an account deficit, which is impossible because I hasn't bought any stock with Robinhood recently. Today RH sold a bunch of my fractional shares without my consent and now it says I have zero cash in my account. What can I do? [link] [comments]  |
| How do brokers fill option orders with multiple legs Posted: 10 Feb 2021 12:41 PM PST With options it got a much bigger bid-ask spreads. Especially with less liquid stocks, question is how does the broker ensure both legs are filled simultaneously? Does the broker act as a MM and sell the option to me and does the hedging ? Or Can MM see my spread legs and fill my order?
Additionally do not just make a self post to offer some simple thoughts. "now is the time to buy", "here's my thoughts", etc. belong as comments to existing posts. Making your own post devoid of in depth examination will likely result in it being removed. [link] [comments]  |
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