Result of Treasury options play this week: Beware Investing |
- Result of Treasury options play this week: Beware
- Eats was supposed to be Uber's saving grace during pandemic which was a gift to e-commerce. Yet Uber Eats loss is staggering despite the surge in sales. Pivoting from a bad margin business in ride to an even worse one in food delivery which will be a drag on the business for the foreseeable future.
- Apple Stock Split Fuels Retail-Trader Bets on Further Gains | Bloomberg
- Silver: Manipulation by J.P. Morgan, Decreasing Recoverability, and Why I’m Long Silver
- Nintendo profit jumps more than 400% thanks to the Switch and 'Animal Crossing'. Why didn't I see this coming? Nintendo a buy?
- Fundamental analysis of -$50bn market cap loss of Tencent?
- Tesla files CT Order with SEC
- Unemployment’s Affect on the Sony and Microsoft Stock Value
- Screwed on pricing for fractional shares (Schwab)
- Should we adjust stock price for inflation when comparing it with historical value?
- Why you have to look beyond the balance sheet: A Cautionary Tale
- Shoud I Put My individual Stocks in my Roth IRA or Taxable account?
- Newby investor; is now a good time to invest in QQQ?
- Buying shares of $UVXY to hold for the next 3 months? Long VIX
- Selling covered puts
- What is going on with OSTK?
- Intel Data Breach
- "FDA grants expedited review to Biogen’s Alzheimer’s drug"
- Is Turtle beach (HEAR) a buy with the upcoming console releases?
- $AYX - down 28% today on weak outlook, but analysts still bullish long term
- Thoughts on Alteryx (AYX)
- July Jobs Report in U.S.: +1.76M jobs; 10.2% unemployment rate.
| Result of Treasury options play this week: Beware Posted: 07 Aug 2020 12:51 PM PDT A post was made earlier this week recommending people buy the August 7th 170 Call options on TLT. TLT is a long-term Treasury ETF by iShares. As you can see, the post has been removed, but the comments remain. I think this is a good learning experience. The poster and several others advocated the purchase of these options at $1.25. That means $125 per contract which would give effective control of 100 shares of TLT. The claim was that it was "guaranteed money" because the Fed announced it was buying bonds. The strategy was to buy at the beginning of the week and hold until expiration date or shortly before. Let's see how this played out: As you can see in the comments, people were showing price charts and drawing lines on them claiming they had made money etc. It's easy to pull up a chart and draw patterns after-the-fact. But what happened with the price? Well yesterday the price of these options was around $1.25-$1.29 per contract. That is around the same as it had been earlier in the week, which is a break-even or a loss in terms of opportunity. But that's not the scary part. As of right now, the price is 5 cents. The strategy in this was to buy 25 Call options. That would run around $3,200 at the price the time the post was made. Right now selling these contracts would get you $125, which means the trade is a -$3,075 loss or so. Wiped out completely. I kept asking for people to post up screenshots of their order fills (the buy and sell tickets) to show us that they made profitable trades and weren't just drawing lines on a chart. They refused. Guys, be careful. Lots of people recommend shoddy advice or they oversimplify how options trades work. Do your due diligence, ask for some screenshots to see if they have any skin in the game. A lot of times these guys aren't even making the trades, they are just doing a look-back and claiming they were in on the position. Things aren't so simple as "The Fed is buying bonds, I'm going in heavy on call options!" It's more complicated. Let this be a cautionary tale. I feel sorry for the guys who actually followed this position in and who are now looking at some large red numbers. I get downvoted a lot for being "condescending" and a lot of other descriptors. But I actually do care about investors losing money to half-baked ideas and my commentary hopefully steers people away from stuff like this. Because innocent guys with a lower account value will take advice and run with it and take food off their own family's table unknowingly. That's who I'm trying to help. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Aug 2020 08:43 AM PDT https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-real-weak-spot-in-ubers-earnings-report-2020-08-07
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| Apple Stock Split Fuels Retail-Trader Bets on Further Gains | Bloomberg Posted: 07 Aug 2020 01:06 PM PDT Apple Stock Split Fuels Retail-Trader Bets on Further Gains
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| Silver: Manipulation by J.P. Morgan, Decreasing Recoverability, and Why I’m Long Silver Posted: 07 Aug 2020 11:21 PM PDT Fascinating podcast I listened too today. Andy Schectman outlines the following on Qouth the Raven Podcast:
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| Posted: 07 Aug 2020 06:40 AM PDT The Japanese company posted another round of blockbuster earnings Thursday, proving that its hot streak from the pandemic is far from over. The company said it made 145 billion yen ($1.37 billion) in operating profit for the quarter ended June, marking a 428% surge compared to the same time a year ago. That blew away expectations from analysts, who had estimated about 62 billion yen of profit, according to data provided by Refinitiv. Nintendo also doubled sales from a year ago, taking in about 358 billion yen ($3.4 billion). The results show that months into the pandemic, people are still turning to the Nintendo Switch game console in droves. Nintendo sold about 5.7 million of the devices from April through June, marking a 167% increase year-over-year.https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/06/tech/nintendo-earnings-intl-hnk/index.html [link] [comments]  |
| Fundamental analysis of -$50bn market cap loss of Tencent? Posted: 07 Aug 2020 05:05 PM PDT How can I figure out how much revenue Tencent gets off U.S. transactions? I am trying to value the $50bn market cap loss today with Tencent, and it just doesn't seem like WeChat US transactions are worth that much. Is there a Tencent 10k I can look at to find that? Moreover, is the -10% drop today due to hype, or more macro-economic trends having to do with anti-China sentiment? Finally, why did all other chinese stocks go down? Is it once again because of hype, or because Trump May ban future Chinese companies? Any help will be appreciated! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Aug 2020 06:32 AM PDT Tesla just filed a Confidential Treatment Order with the SEC. This is normally used for secret acquisitions which if revealed could tip off competitors and give away secrets. What's so secret that Tesla is working on right now? I am taking this to be very bullish. [link] [comments]  |
| Unemployment’s Affect on the Sony and Microsoft Stock Value Posted: 07 Aug 2020 05:55 PM PDT As many of you know, this coming holiday, Sony is going to be releasing the PlayStation 5 and Microsoft is releasing the new Xbox Series X. With unemployment so high due to Covid, it will obviously affect sales of these consoles. And if the $600 FPUC isn't extended, it will limit people's ability to afford anything non essential. All of this plays directly into Microsoft and Sony's stock valuation. How do you think it will all go down? Do you think it's likely these stocks will still soar, even with unemployment being so high? Or will they plateau or plummet due to people's inability to afford their product? Obviously impossible to accurately predict, but I'd like an experienced investor's input. [link] [comments]  |
| Screwed on pricing for fractional shares (Schwab) Posted: 07 Aug 2020 02:12 PM PDT On Schwab there have been several times when I buy fractional shares at prices much higher than the market. Today, I bought 100$ worth of IDXX and the buy price was at 396$. Today's range for that stock was 381-393. Are other platforms usually this off with fractional shares? I Also can only purchase fractional shares of SP500 companies. [link] [comments]  |
| Should we adjust stock price for inflation when comparing it with historical value? Posted: 07 Aug 2020 11:53 PM PDT Whenever we do analysis on a stock or ETF, we look at the current stock price as well as the historical data on it. However, should we adjust the stock prices to account for inflation in order to get a more accurate picture of the behavior of the stock or ETF? An example. $SPY is at $334 currently. HOWEVER, the US dollar has lost almost 10% of it's value in the past couple of months. This means it would put us at a "real" value of ~$300. Should we adjust stock price for inflation when comparing it with historical value? [link] [comments]  |
| Why you have to look beyond the balance sheet: A Cautionary Tale Posted: 07 Aug 2020 09:31 AM PDT For almost 7 years I was a dyed in the wool value investor. I did very well. As I would look back on stocks I passed on investing over the years I saw many of them went to zero or close to it. So, I got the bright idea of using LEAP put options on companies I would never go long on. I started in the casino, hotel, and resort space. I spent two weeks one by one researching and then ranking each company based from strongest to weakest on all the metrics and benchmarks Graham talks about in the Intelligent Investor (interest coverage, what their bonds yielded, working capital, credit rating, etc.) My goal was to find the absolute weakest company in the sector/industry. A company with an atrocious balance sheet that was barely surviving. In my mind I thought it would be the perfect one to bet against. I found it. It was Penn National Gaming (PENN). They ranked number one as the weakest company. They have billions in debt, negative working capital, negative tangible book value, and not enough money before tax to cover the interest payment. They have had to continually issue new shares and dilute their stock. Their current shares outstanding are 200% higher than they were 4 years ago. PENN reached a low of $3.50 during the March crash. When I finished my research it was at $28. My thesis was that with the company being in such horrible financial shape and their casinos being closed for so long would take the stock back down and potentially make the company file Chapter 11. Even if their casinos reopened I did not think that they could survive on a fraction of their former traffic. With all that in mind it seemed like it was possible for the stock to go back to what it was in March. I had such conviction I invested $1,000 in puts with a $3 strike that expire in January. I made one big mistake. I didn't know about Dave Portnoy when I initiated my position. I didn't think Barstool could generate enough revenue to save them. Dave Portnoy is the equivalent of Elon Musk in the sports world. Just like Elon's tweets move Tesla Portnoy has been able to move PENN. I don't blame him. I just made the mistake of overestimating the influence one person can have on a stock. Today the stock is worth $49. I bought my puts when stock was at $28. I'm down 70%. The money I lost does sting, but it doesn't bother me. I went in knowing I could lose it all or make 42X my money. I saw it as an asymmetric bet. But, at 24 years old this lesson will stick with me the rest of my investing career. Look beyond the balance sheet [link] [comments]  |
| Shoud I Put My individual Stocks in my Roth IRA or Taxable account? Posted: 07 Aug 2020 10:34 PM PDT Currently, I have VTSAX, with it being 100% of my portfolio. I am highly interested in investing in specific blue chip stocks I have done DD for. Would it be best to buy these stocks as part of my Roth IRA where any gains are locked into the Roth or for a normal account so I may withdraw gains anytime after a year when needed? [link] [comments]  |
| Newby investor; is now a good time to invest in QQQ? Posted: 08 Aug 2020 03:09 AM PDT I've been doing my research on NASDAQ and granted, I'm just barely starting out with investing but it seems like it'd be a good ETF to put money into for the time being - a lot of posts and articles I've seen talk about the market correcting itself and the value of tech companies to go down; moreover, I've seen posts from people wanting to buy once it's low again - is there any general consensus regarding this? Would apprdciate hearing your thoughts and any places I can look to for further reading [link] [comments]  |
| Buying shares of $UVXY to hold for the next 3 months? Long VIX Posted: 07 Aug 2020 02:34 PM PDT It seems very likely that VIX will spike some time in the next 3 months. You have US presidential elections being held, escalation of US-China trade war and possible hot war, and of course the COVID 19 situation. There is also some evidence that COVID will get worse in "cooler" weather, which will happen over the next 3 months (it's going to be fall in the USA). Because of these reasons, it seems like an educated guess would be that VIX will spike over the next 3 months. Therefore I feel like it is wise to start preparing a position to long VIX now. Is buying $UVXY shares is a relatively safe way to do this? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Aug 2020 02:46 AM PDT Selling covered puts I was curious on what stock currently has the best payout for selling covered puts? I am currently selling puts on NIO and selling covered calls as well. I have looked at other stocks around the same price but they don't pay out as much. Just curious, let me know what you all have found out! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Aug 2020 04:05 PM PDT Okay, I understand that sales are up due to the covid pandemic. I also totally understand that the crazy CEO is gone. However, is the current rally justified? Will they be able to maintain? How will they stay relevant compared to other retailers long term? The crypto play seems like a distraction. What am I missing here? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Aug 2020 09:04 AM PDT https://www.anandtech.com/show/15962/intel-data-breach-20gb-of-ip-leaked Intel recently had a fairly large data breach (linked above). Do breaches like these usually effect mid term stock price? I was hoping to jump in at a low point this week but when I checked this morning it looks as though the stock has barely dropped (down 1.6% currently) Is that normal for a data breach with a massive company? [link] [comments]  |
| "FDA grants expedited review to Biogen’s Alzheimer’s drug" Posted: 07 Aug 2020 09:20 AM PDT "Biogen and Japan's Eisai said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had accepted their marketing application for experimental Alzheimer's disease treatment aducanumab, with a decision due by March 7. If approved, aducanumab would become the first therapy to reduce the clinical decline associated with Alzheimer's disease and has the potential to become a multibillion-dollar seller, according to analysts." This could be interesting given the unique spiral for that drug candidate [link] [comments]  |
| Is Turtle beach (HEAR) a buy with the upcoming console releases? Posted: 07 Aug 2020 09:45 PM PDT With Microsoft and Sony releasing their new consoles I'm wondering what thoughts are on buying turtle beach. There was a massive jump with the release of the XB1 as it used a new audio jack. With the new consoles using the same jack as previous headphones I wonder if sales will go up or stay relatively stagnant. Thought? [link] [comments]  |
| $AYX - down 28% today on weak outlook, but analysts still bullish long term Posted: 07 Aug 2020 08:39 AM PDT Might take a few quarters to recover. Not sure I'd try to catch this falling knife today... Oppenheimer: "Alteryx delivered 2Q results ahead of lowered expectations, with solid new customer additions and continued traction with G2K accounts (137% retention rate). However, persistent COVID-19/macro headwinds weighed on customer behavior negatively impacting expansion/renewal activity, deal sizes, and sales cycles. With no visibility into the timing of a recovery, management is taking action to improve execution (sales training, resource reallocation), support customer needs (adoption licenses), and maintain profitability (S&M optimization, profit/growth balance). While the shares will come under pressure near-term, our long-term view is unchanged, and we remain positive seeing Alteryx as strongly positioned to capitalize on multiple secular trends (digitization, automation, AI/ML...). Adjusting estimates based on results/guidance and lowering PT to $180 (from $190). Maintain Outperform." Needham: "AYX reported mixed 2Q20 results as revenue and EPS were ahead of consensus, but guidance introduced for 3Q and FY20 revenue was well behind. Although FY20 revenue guidance implies a material growth slowdown at the mid-point, we believe the biggest component that is creating a headwind may be a tougher compare created by increased duration in 2H19. Importantly, management introduced ARR guidance of ~30% growth, which we believe may serve as a better metric for growth since it normalizes for differences in revenue recognition between licenses and terms. Although mgmt acknowledged that AYX is facing longer sales cycles and is now selling shorter duration licenses (which may be a small component of guidance), we continue to believe AYX's organic growth remains well ahead of its implied guidance. Reiterate BUY rating and adjust our PT to $172." Goldman: "The combination of ongoing macro pressures from COVID and a financial model with mostly upfront revenue recognition caused a steep deceleration in F2Q revenue to 17%, down from 43% in F1Q, with guidance for a further deceleration to 9% (at midpoint) in F3Q and implied F4Q growth of -8%. Customer buying patterns were irregular in the quarter and didn't follow an upward linear trend; as a result, we think it will take many quarters for new bookings growth to return to pre-COVID levels. However, we were encouraged to see that ARR still grew 40% in F2Q; management expects ARR to still grow >30% at the end of the year. With strong interest in the quarter in adoption licenses (short-term trials), which were up 60% y/y, we are optimistic that these customers could start to scale up business next year and lead to a recovery in ARR (and revenue growth). Due to the disappointing outlook, our FY20/21 revenue estimates come down by 12%/8%, and our PT goes to $195 from $216. We maintain a Buy rating on AYX shares." DA Davidson: "AYX reported a rough 2Q, with 3Q and 2020 guidance coming below consensus (and implied 4Q guidance calling for negative Y/Y growth), leading shares down 19% AMC. This was the result of COVID-19 headwinds, leading to longer sales cycles, smaller deal sizes, and higher spending scrutiny. In addition, AYX saw issues with sales onboarding and enablement. In response to COVID, AYX increased its use of adoption licenses and views COVID as a longer-term tailwind." [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Aug 2020 06:16 AM PDT Alteryx is a data analysis tool that I use for work. It has replaced my need for many other programs such as Excel, Access, etc. They had good quarter two earnings, but since then the share price has dropped. I am considering investing in them, but I am worried why other investors are dropping this stock. What are all of your opinions on Alteryx? What factors outside of earnings should I be looking at before investing in companies? Thanks in advance for your replies! I look forward to learning from all of you! [link] [comments]  |
| July Jobs Report in U.S.: +1.76M jobs; 10.2% unemployment rate. Posted: 07 Aug 2020 06:19 AM PDT The 1.76M jobs surpasses some expectations from analysts (1.48M). However, 22M jobs were lost since March, and there was only a 4.8M jump in jobs in June. Some fear that momentum has slowed as we are going through a spike in cases throughout some states in the U.S. All of this happening while stimulus talks are continuing to stall in the backdrop. Unemployment rate has dropped to 10.2% [link] [comments]  |
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