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    Wednesday, October 30, 2019

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 05:09 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Largest privately owned US coal mining company files for bankruptcy protection

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 03:09 PM PDT

    Ohio-based Murray Energy filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy joining a growing list of bankrupt or struggling miners as utilities switch away from coal.

    The company seeks to restructure nearly $3 billion in debt and obtained some $350 million in new loans to continue operating during the bankruptcy proceeding.

    Murray Energy was the country's fourth largest coal producer in 2018, accounting for 6% of total production, according to the Energy Information Administration.

    The collapse comes despite federal rescue attempts. The deregulatory push has been unable to offset market forces. Coal has been unable to compete with cheap natural gas and the falling cost of solar power, wind and other forms of renewable energy.

    Bloomberg news

    FT

    CBS

    submitted by /u/wanmoar
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    Alphabet's YouTube is worth $300 billion as a standalone, analyst says

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 06:48 AM PDT

    "We think GOOGL should spin off part or all of YouTube, which we estimate would be worth $300B on a stand-alone basis," Needham analyst Laura Martin says.

    Martin sees several ways spinning off YouTube would create value for the company.

    If YouTube becomes a $300 billion standalone company, it would rank as one of the 15 biggest companies in the S&P 500.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/29/analyst-alphabet-should-spin-off-youtube-would-be-worth-300-billion.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

    submitted by /u/NineteenEighty9
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    Uber, Lyft Unveil Ballot Initiative to Counter California Gig-Economy Law

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 10:45 PM PDT

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-lyft-unveil-ballot-initiative-to-counter-california-gig-economy-law-11572386291?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1

    Updated Oct. 29, 2019 9:20 pm ET

    Uber Technologies Inc., Lyft Inc. and other ride-hailing and on-demand companies in California said Tuesday they submitted a ballot initiative that would alter a statewide law intending to reclassify contract workers as full-time employees.

    The companies are funding the measure, called the Protect App-Based Drivers and Services Act, aiming to get it on the November 2020 state ballot. The initiative would effectively exempt Uber, Lyft and similar on-demand companies from key provisions of what is known as the gig-economy law, while also adding guarantees to ride-hailing workers to appease the law's defenders.

    While lawmakers and supporters have said the gig-economy law, which was enacted in September and will go into effect in January, could raise wages and provide new benefits for workers, critics have said it will raise costs for companies and force them to introduce hourly schedules that would take away the flexibility many drivers want.

    Uber, Lyft and food-delivery company DoorDash Inc., who promised to spend a combined $90 million on a ballot measure to counter the law, officially kick-started the process Tuesday by submitting the 17-page initiative to the state attorney general's office for review.

    Next, the coalition backed by the companies will have to gather at least 623,212 petition signatures from registered voters—equal to 5% of the votes cast for all candidates for governor in the last California gubernatorial election—before California Secretary of State Alex Padilla can qualify the initiative for the statewide ballot next year.

    Brandon Castillo, a spokesman for the coalition, said the group plans to start collecting signatures in January. Ballot initiatives must be approved at least 131 days before an election, putting some time pressure on the group to get the support it needs.

    California's new worker-protection bill could require Uber and Lyft to treat drivers as employees, but not all workers welcome the changes. Photo/Video: Jake Nicol/The Wall Street Journal

    The ballot measure includes several guarantees to ride-hailing and delivery drivers that coalition members say don't currently exist, such as giving drivers 30 cents a mile driven to account for gas and other vehicle costs, health-care subsidies for drivers who work 15 hours or more a week and occupational-accident insurance coverage while on the job.

    Mr. Castillo said the group doesn't seek to rewrite the entire gig-economy law, known as Assembly Bill 5 or AB5, which also affects workers in other industries from trucking to janitorial services, and aims only to create statutes for ride-hailing and other on-demand drivers.

    "This initiative is for the thousands of Californians who are accessing this type of flexible work to supplement income or for a way to support their families," Mr. Castillo said in an interview Tuesday. "It's also for customers who are accessing these services every day."

    Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez, who wrote the gig-economy law, said the ballot initiative is disingenuous.

    "There is nothing in either the State Supreme Court's decision or AB5 that impacts flexibility for workers," Ms. Gonzalez said Tuesday. "These billion-dollar corporations still refuse to offer their workers what every other employee in California is entitled to: earning the minimum wage for all hours worked, social security, normal reimbursements for their costs, overtime pay, and the right to organize."

    As the law stands, Uber, Lyft and other companies will face a stricter test to prove that their drivers are independent contractors, including showing that drivers' services are outside the companies' usual course of business. The companies have said the law could result in higher fares for customers in California. Surgeons, psychologists, veterinarians, lawyers, engineers and many other professions have already been exempt from the law.

    Uber has said it doesn't intend to change its practices in response to the measure because it believes it could prove in a legal setting that its drivers are independent contractors. Lyft has told drivers they may "soon be required to drive specific shifts, stick to specific areas, and drive for only a single platform."

    The initiative seeks to retroact any enforcement or legal challenge of the law during the next year if the measure is qualified and ultimately passed by voters next year, Mr. Castillo said.

    Uber, Lyft and DoorDash first threatened a ballot measure in August. The companies offered lawmakers proposals—including a minimum wage of $21 an hour—to try to reach a compromise before the gig-economy law passed but didn't come to an agreement.

    submitted by /u/beck2047
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    Deutsche Bank reports 832 million euro third-quarter loss on restructuring

    Posted: 30 Oct 2019 01:37 AM PDT

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-bank-results/deutsche-bank-reports-832-million-euro-third-quarter-loss-on-restructuring-idUSKBN1X90GA

    It marks the second consecutive quarterly loss as the bank faces costs to reshape its business, and compares with a 3.15 billion euro loss in the second quarter and a 229 million euro net profit a year ago.

    submitted by /u/MrCrickets
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    GRUB down over 40%

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 08:11 AM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/29/grubhub-down-30percent-after-a-terrible-earnings-cause-analysts-to-bail.html

    I have been thinking about selling my position for the past year... This hurts really bad.

    submitted by /u/RoAnonim
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    Silicon Valley congressman: California should take control of PG&E as wildfire blackouts persist

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 08:01 AM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/29/california-rep-ro-khanna-the-state-should-take-control-of-pacific-gas-and-electric.html

    California Rep. Ro Khanna told CNBC on Tuesday the government should take control of PG&E as the nation's largest utility puts millions of state residents in the dark in hopes of preventing more wildfires.

    submitted by /u/MrCrickets
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    Amazon Turns to More Free Grocery Delivery to Lift Food Sales

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 02:32 PM PDT

    What podcast do you listen to

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 07:50 PM PDT

    On your morning commute to work

    submitted by /u/Tenesmus83
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    Sec. Mnuchin is open to loose liquidity rules favored by JP Morgan

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 12:34 PM PDT

    Is anyone here affected by the ban on EU citizens buying US based ETFs? If so what is your portfolio strategy to compensate?

    Posted: 30 Oct 2019 04:06 AM PDT

    Since Schwab's recent ban on selling US-based ETFs to individuals living within the EU, it has made it impossible to set up and rebalance a simple ETF based portfolio-based based on a 60/40 split or another investing strategy. I am curious if anyone else has been affected by this and what their portfolio strategy is to get around this huge limitation for Americans living abroad.

    submitted by /u/ATLWrangler
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    How do you guys cope with seeing your stock rise after a sell?

    Posted: 30 Oct 2019 04:00 AM PDT

    Seriously question and no pun intended. I struggle with this although many times I have strong conviction about the sell. Any hints from fellow investors on how to put this in perspective?

    submitted by /u/caxus1
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    JNJ trading halted before the close of the day?

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 12:47 PM PDT

    What's up with MCD?

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 04:25 PM PDT

    MCD has taken a tumble over the last week. Anybody have a reason why? I've heard their Beyond Meat trial didn't go so hot, but otherwise not seeing anything really fatal in their path.

    I have about 45 shares based on what I inherited from my mother years ago, nothing I'm really counting on. I've just been reinvesting the dividends and letting it ride, just curious though.

    submitted by /u/Relaxed_Engineer
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    Are Apple and Tesla the two most loyal+cult-ish brands in the world? In history? And does that make them good long term bets?

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 09:42 AM PDT

    I'll preface this by saying I've owned a few iphones in the past but have been with Samsung for the past few years. I also have a Tesla S for just over 2 years now.

    In considering brand loyalty I consider a few things:

    Product anticipation The fact that both companies will have people camping/waiting in line to buy or preorder very expensive products (obviously to different degrees here) that 1) they've never seen or touched, 2) has not been revealed or reviewed by anyone before is insane.

    CEO's: When Steve Jobs came out on stage, it's like seeing Billy Graham or the equivalent up on stage and probably only Jesus himself could top that sort of excitement (doubtful). Elon Musk and Tim Cook at best have a fraction of Job's presentation abilities, but that still doesn't stop their crowds from hanging onto every word they say.

    When you consider their competitors, I can guarantee you while practically everyone knows who Jobs, Cook, and Musk are (and Bill Gates), a very small subset of the population would recognize Pinchai or Nadella, and even fewer can name Samsung's CEO (I know I can't).

    Similarly a small subset of the general population can name Mary Barra as GM's CEO, and I bet very few know who Ford's, BMW's, Mercedes, Toyota's, Honda's, etc. CEOs are either despite them being such major brand names. Nissan's Ghosn may be well known too but for all the wrong reasons.

    Of course Amazon+Google, and FB are more a part of our daily lives and Bezos/Zuckerberg are also household names, but I'd say the "loyalty" and continued usage of their products are out of convenience more than anything.

    You would never hear in daily conversation how much people love their Alexa or Google Home like they do their iPhone/AirPods or Tesla. This despite both having strong competitors that do offer comparable products (arguably not as good).

    It seems like this in and of itself can keep both, especially Tesla who may have wanted/predicted to die for many years now alive for the long term. It's not something one can measure, but rather just hearing how people talk about can be indicative of their longevity.

    submitted by /u/pikindaguy
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    How to think like a owner? Where do you start learning the business you are interested in before investing?

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 09:33 PM PDT

    Hello every one? So I am planning to invest a portion ( I am going to risk it basically and I am going to very conservative) of my savings.

    So few things stood out; Need some assistance in understanding what tools we can rely on to learn.

    1) Stocks - any loss you can live with

    This is personal decision

    2) Invest only if you Truly believe like you are going to run it

    This is personal intuition + facts (How can I routinely get into learning facts and statistics like for e.g) There will be old people in US next 2 decades.) What reading subscriptions do you suggest?

    3) Never invest in anything that feels overpriced

    This can be done with comparison with competitors and understanding the management mistakes and so on on media.

    4) Don't buy stocks at fair price

    How can you judge if a stock is at fair price any ideas?

    5) Don't buy the Headlines read the story

    6) Understand the business.

    How can I understand a company's business. Does it mean reading their stakeholder's releases? or How would we know how a company works. I work at business where I would have no idea how business works if I din actually work in that field. How can You judge if you are an outsider.

    submitted by /u/financenonexpert
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    America’s sex recession could lead to an economic depression

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 11:27 PM PDT

    I need some insight on international (and specifically Asian) markets and news

    Posted: 30 Oct 2019 02:07 AM PDT

    For the last 2 or so years, I have mostly been investing in US and European markets and recently I've been wanting to expand my portfolio to include Asia. The current platforms I use don't offer international options and the news I read doesn't really cover the Asian market in depth. Therefore my questions are:

    - What are some news sources which give a more in-depth analysis and coverage of the Asian market? I have been looking at the FT, Morningstar and Nikkei Asian Review. If anyone has experience with them, let me know.

    - What's a good platform to use for trading internationally? Investopedia has some recommendations here but if anyone has different opinions I'd like to hear them.

    My initial budget for this will only be around 500 Euros
    PS: English is not my first language so apologies if something is unclear

    submitted by /u/eltoineu
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    Anybody invested in carbon certificates?

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 02:50 PM PDT

    E.g.: CARB / JE00B3CG6315

    Let me formulate it this way: I am generally optimistic that we will be able to raise our ambitions to combat climate change. In Europe, you can trade carbon certificates. Any reason NOT to buy them as it seems obvious that the price HAS to rise if we want to succeed?

    Edit: TIL that reddit does not know what a carbon certificate is. If anybody is still interested, I can recommend this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_trading The price in the European trading scheme went up 500% in the last two years. Now we are at 20-25 Euro/t but experts say we need at least 70-100 Euro/t to decarbonize effectively. Large upside potential!

    submitted by /u/helmutschmidt
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    Creating a bank account for pooled investing - having trouble

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 09:05 PM PDT

    Hi -

    I have created an LLC with a couple of my colleagues to pool our funds and invest in businesses (eg, startups, real estate, etc.).

    I called Bank of America today to set up an account, and apparently they won't let me create a small business account if it's used for investing purposes / it includes pooled capital.

    What is the best way / what are my options for me to create a bank account that I can use for the group to add funds and send funds to the businesses we want to invest in, etc.?

    Has anyone run into this issue before?

    submitted by /u/WR31
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    [Reuters] Three-peat? Fed copies 1990s playbook in bid to avert a downturn

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 06:20 AM PDT

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/three-peat-fed-copies-1990s-playbook-in-bid-to-avert-a-downturn-idUSKBN1X80EX

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In the midst of what became a golden decade for the U.S. Federal Reserve, central bankers twice in the 1990s cut interest rates in short bursts that managed to help the U.S. economy continue growing despite slowing investment and weak growth overseas.

    Today's Fed hopes a third time proves just as charmed.

    In their latest two-day policy meeting this week, Fed officials look set to nudge the economy along in similar fashion with their third consecutive rate cut. That would match the moves made by then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan in 1995 and 1998 during an era known as "the Great Moderation" for its steady growth, falling unemployment and tempered inflation.

    There's been no clear commitment to another reduction in borrowing costs from Fed policymakers, though a failure to lower rates on Wednesday could risk upending financial markets that are confident another cut is coming. With billions of dollars in bets on futures markets tied to anticipated Fed actions, any deviation by the U.S. central bank from the expected course typically leads to sharp swings in bond and stock markets.

    A rate cut on Wednesday, which would be the Fed's third this year, would lower the overnight benchmark lending rate to a new range of between 1.5% and 1.75%. Policymakers may emphasize that "the three cuts cumulatively have served to balance the risks to the outlook," and will likely keep the economy on track, JP Morgan economist Michael Feroli wrote last week.

    The Fed is scheduled to announce its latest policy decision at 2 p.m. EDT on Wednesday (1800 GMT). Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a news conference half an hour later.

    Policymakers likely won't shut the door to further action, but may "communicate patience in deciding future policy moves," TD Securities analysts wrote last week. GAINING LEEWAY

    Investors have no firm opinion on when the Fed will move again after Wednesday, a signal to Powell and his colleagues that if they deliver the expected cut this week they will have room to shape market expectations moving forward.

    According to CME Group's FedWatch tool here the probability of a rate reduction on Wednesday stands at 94%. After that, however, it's a coin toss whether there will be any further change for at least a year.

    That in itself is a success for Powell. Beginning last fall, the Fed confronted a widening gap between what policymakers at that point thought would be continued rate hikes, and the expectations of investors who began factoring rate cuts into their outlook as a global economic slowdown took hold around the intensifying U.S.-China trade war.

    The Fed, under pressure to lower rates from President Donald Trump but also watching U.S. investment and manufacturing data weaken, reversed course early this year.

    Financial markets have responded with largely easier borrowing conditions, and lower rates on important benchmarks like 30-year home mortgages. Key aspects of the bond market, watched by some Fed officials as evidence of faith or lack of it in near-term economic growth, have been looking steadily healthier.

    Some of the ongoing problems like the trade war with China and the prospect of a disorderly British exit from the European Union also have lightened, at least a bit.

    That has helped narrow the gap between the Fed and global market expectations.

    It may have helped narrow gaps within the U.S. central bank as well. Even those Fed officials who have been most eager to cut rates now feel that one more quarter-percentage-point reduction should be adequate for the year. THEN AND NOW

    Today's circumstances share a number of similarities with those confronting the Fed roughly a quarter of a century ago.

    In July 1995, Fed officials, as now, debated whether slower-than-expected growth would impair business investment, spilling over into hiring plans and, ultimately, household spending.

    Just as weak growth in Europe is seen as a risk for U.S. companies today, a weak outlook for Canada and Japan was a concern then, according to minutes of the meeting at which the Fed adopted the first of three rate cuts in six months.

    "During the last six weeks my optimism has diminished," said former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who was president of the San Francisco Fed at the time. Without action by the Fed "we could easily end up, I think, in an extended growth recession."

    Fast-forward to the present, and again the economic data has not been great.

    The most recent jobs and retail sales reports were both weak. Economists polled by Reuters expect economic growth slowed in the third quarter to an annual rate of 1.7%, from a 2% pace in the second quarter. The advance estimate of gross domestic product is due to be released on Wednesday, before the Fed concludes its policy meeting.

    As the 1990s proceeded, it took two such rounds of "mid-cycle adjustment," about two years apart and each involving three rate cuts of a quarter of a percentage point each, to keep that recovery on track. It was derailed by the bursting of the dot-com stock market bubble, with a recession starting in March, 2001.

    The expansion since the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession has already eclipsed the 1990s to become the most prolonged period of sustained growth in U.S. history.

    While the pace has sometimes been tepid, Powell and his colleagues argue there is no reason it can't keep going, and have pledged to act "as appropriate" to try to make it so.

    At a speech in Denver earlier this month, Powell nodded to both the risks facing the U.S. economy, but also to its ongoing growth.

    On balance, "this feels very sustainable," he said.

    submitted by /u/ltdshred
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    TikTok owner ByteDance eyes initial public offering in Hong Kong

    Posted: 29 Oct 2019 07:41 AM PDT

    https://www.ft.com/content/7c1f223e-f721-11e9-9ef3-eca8fc8f2d65

    ByteDance, the $75bn Chinese start-up that owns the short-form video app TikTok, is eyeing an initial public offering in Hong Kong as soon as the first quarter of next year, according to two people briefed on its plans.

    The seven-year-old company, which also owns the Chinese news app Jinri Toutiao, has chosen Hong Kong over New York, despite the recent turmoil in the territory. The benchmark Hang Seng index has lost about 11 per cent from its high earlier this year amid mass street protests and civil unrest.

    ByteDance's valuation hit $75bn in October 2018 when it closed a $3bn funding round led by SoftBank, doubling its worth from a year earlier. An IPO would crystallise big gains for early investors such as the Chinese arm of Sequoia Capital and would also help SoftBank at a time when the value of its investments in companies such as Uber and WeWork has sharply fallen.

    A ByteDance spokesperson said: "There is absolutely zero truth to the rumour that we plan to list in Q1. Full stop."

    One of the few Chinese companies to have made significant inroads into international markets, ByteDance is facing increasing political pressure. In India, politicians have accused TikTok of inciting racial hatred and spreading pornography. The app was briefly banned earlier this year.

    In the US, senators Charles Schumer and Tom Cotton last week called for intelligence officials to investigate TikTok, which has become a teenage craze, over the "national security risks posed by its growing use".

    The company has hired a team at the law firm K&L Gates, which includes Gordon Bart, a former chair of the US House committee on science and technology, to advise on public policy. Its investors are also trying to quell Washington's opposition to TikTok ahead of the potential listing.

    "They need more political heft before they go public," said one banker briefed on the IPO plans. "Even if they list in Hong Kong, they still need to address the concerns of US investors."

    To minimise the growing US backlash, ByteDance plans to sell TopBuzz, its US news feed business, which has a readership of 300,000, according to a people briefed on the plans.

    ByteDance is also hiring a number of former US officials to help it address concerns raised by both Republican and Democratic congressmen in regard to Chinese companies. It is seeking to hire a chief legal officer and staff with Washington connections to push back against concerns ranging from data privacy to whether it is enforcing censorship at the behest of the Chinese government.

    These initiatives follow Senator Marco Rubio's recent calls for a review of ByteDance's $900m purchase of the Musical.ly app in 2017.

    TikTok's success has been powered in part by Musical.ly's technology but Mr Rubio alleged that TikTok has censored news on topics sensitive to China, such as the protests in Hong Kong and alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang. ByteDance's US general manager, Vanessa Pappas, has categorically denied those allegations.

    ByteDance reported revenues of between $7bn and $8.4bn for the first half of the calendar year, according to Reuters, and was profitable in the month of June.

    submitted by /u/beck2047
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    QUESTIONS!!

    Posted: 30 Oct 2019 12:42 AM PDT

    What is better?
    a) a higher trailing P/E or a lower trailing P/E
    b) a higher forward P/E or a lower forward P/E

    c) a higher PEG Ratio or a lower PEG Ratio
    d) a higher Price/Sales Ratio or a lower Price/Sales Ratio
    e) a higher Price/Book Ratio or a lower Price/Book Ratio

    f) a higher Enterprise Value/Revenue or a lower Enterprise Value/Revenue

    and finally

    g) a higher Enterprise Value/EBITDA or a lower Enterprise Value/EBITDA

    submitted by /u/sxiong04
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