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    Wednesday, July 10, 2019

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 05:14 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    US market's Shiller PE - why should I buy American stock ETFs?

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 03:45 AM PDT

    Shiller's PE for the US stock market is above 30. In such conditions, from a value point of view, I think it makes little sense to hold broad US stock ETFs. For people that hold most of their stocks in the US market - what keeps you convinced enough to do so? I'm contemplating keeping most (like > 90%) of my long term (> 20 years) stock holdings in the non-US market, which has a much more modest valuation. Say European, or even broad ex-US like VEU.

    Footnote: here's some technical analysis (i.e. fancy but meaningless lines) for Shiller PE for the US stock market: https://imgur.com/a/sdyDG69. I picked the year 1981 because that's when the USD inflation started to die and the bull market for long term bonds started.

    submitted by /u/MakeoverBelly
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    What's happening to FedEx?

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 03:52 AM PDT

    Is just going down and down and down...

    submitted by /u/GilElCentauro
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    What's the minium % of my liquid assets that should be kept cash?

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 03:45 AM PDT

    I'm a 19 year in college. I've saved up money working and birthdays. If I lost all of my money today, nothing would happen to me (very grateful for my parents). Is there some sort of percentage of money I should keep not invested in case everything goes down and I'll want some extra money to put in then (or for some other reason)? If so, what is it (approximately) and why?

    Also, what if I wasn't fortunate to have the luxary of being able to lose all my money, what is the percentage now? Is it just whatever I need keep myself alive, or slightly more for some reason (if so, what's that reason?).

    I've had money sitting in my bank account for a few years now and I'm realizing that it could be doing something, so I thought this might be a good place to start.

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/EyadXVI
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    Fidelity YTD rate of return option

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 12:58 AM PDT

    Does anyone know how to find your personal performance on Fidelity? I just want to see what my YTD rate of return is and it seems impossible to find... this used to be so easy to find when I was on Vanguard.

    Thanks for any directions.

    submitted by /u/curbside319
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    Interesting thread about Europe's economy this summer/fall

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 04:54 PM PDT

    in the 21st Century retired folks withdrawing 4% a year would have more money in a 100% Total Bond ETF than stocks!

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 07:18 AM PDT

    I was playing with my favorite Investment return website Portfolio Visualizer. I was curious if someone retired on January 1, 2000, and withdrew an inflation-adjusted 4% out of their starting amount of one million dollars ($1,000,000)

    On June 30th, 2019, after the annual inflation-adjusted 4% annual withdrawals they would have:

    $1,044,147 if they would have invested in funds that were 50% Total Stock Market and 50% Total Bond Market (Maximum drawdown of 25.15%)

    $499,585 if they had invested in a fund that was 100% Total Stock Market (Maximum drawdown of 50.89%)

    $1,058,025 if they had invested in a Total Bond Market Fund (With a Maximum Drawdown of 3.99%)

    Who said the Bond Market is a bad place to invest your retirement money after retiring?

    (This is before any taxes or investment fees.)

    Check my figures on this excellent website:

    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation#analysisResults

    submitted by /u/KillingTime56
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    Why is Nucor's revenue per employee almost 3x that of US Steel?

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 06:20 PM PDT

    Nucor

    US Steel

    Are their businesses very different? I thought they essentially did the same thing.

    submitted by /u/missedthecue
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    When did you miss out because you predicted an economic downturn that never came to pass?

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 12:11 PM PDT

    In reading the thousandth post this year about whether there would be a recession soon, I thought back to the many times that I read headlines expecting events to be the catalyst or tipping point that leads us to an economic downturn.

    Maybe it was the fears of a double dip recession in 2009.

    Or in 2010.

    Or in 2011.

    Or in 2012.

    Surely we all occasionally fall prey to to news of this kind for the sake of the safety of our money. But had you neglected to invest in all of those years, you would have missed out on substantial growth and gains in the ensuing decade.

    When did you put faith in some of the doomsdayers or negative headlines that caused you to make moves that caused you to miss out?

    submitted by /u/hsl1290
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    What percentage should you not exceed when purchasing a stock in brokerage fees?

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 11:47 AM PDT

    I put away(aside from Roth/401k) $250 every paycheck to invest but I don't usually buy any stock for less than $500 due to $5 brokerage fee, so 1%. Is that too much? Is there a rule of thumb on this?

    submitted by /u/GopherFawkes
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    PagerDuty...anybody know anything about it?

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 05:40 PM PDT

    Asked a good friend in the investment industry if he had any good stock ideas....he suggested PagerDuty (PD). Anybody know anything about it or have any insight? I know nothing about the the IT/software/operations industry. Appreciate any insight.

    submitted by /u/mlorusso12
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    Piper Jaffray to Buy Sandler O’Neill for $485 Million

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 05:39 AM PDT

    Is it safe to say every small cap stock has many analysts evaluating it at a given time? Micro? Nano?

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 11:54 AM PDT

    In terms of market efficiency, I would assume the number of eyes on a stock means less room for gains. Are there small, micro, nano stocks that might not have a lot of other people looking at them?

    submitted by /u/infohawk
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    Disaster Looming for L Brands?

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 11:08 AM PDT

    Les Wexner, the chairman and CEO of L Brands (Victoria's Secret) is tied up in the Jeffrey Epstein sex-trafficking scandal. Wexner was the sole financier of Epstein for a long time, and all kinds of wild rumors are flying.

    Did Wexner supply Epstein with underaged girls (wanna be models) who were then trafficked to politicians, foreign dignitaries, and the rich and powerful, in return for "investments" in Epstein's sketchy hedge-fund?

    Was blackmail also involved in this whole thing? A ponzi-scheme (no one can figure out how Epstein got his money)? I don't know how this would affect L Brands, but I know it will be very bad

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-again-goes-after-barak-for-ties-to-accused-billionaire-jeffrey-epstein/

    submitted by /u/Manny1400
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    What are the best investments to take advantage of the trucking recovery that happened last month? Capacity crashed 18.8% due to bankruptcies, then demand increased 35.9%! The market seems completely unaware of what is going on and nobody is reacting yet!

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 01:59 PM PDT

    Not sure how many of you are aware of this, but for the last year the trucking industry has been having a massive recession due to the trade war and being flooded by capacity from import/export sectors who had no freight to move.

    Well, after a year of expected bankruptcies, an astonishing 18.8% of capacity left the industry last month! But Freight itself ROSE 35.9% in total volume over the same month.

    What happened was that the freight increase was not enough to cover their debts from last year and they still went bankrupt even with increase prices.

    And now that freight demand has jumped massively, there are not enough trucks to haul them!

    I actually own a small logistics company and its almost impossible to get all our loads moved right now.

    What are the best "spot freight" companies in a position to take advantage of this right now? We use Landstar quite often, but even they are running out of capacity and have 1 truck for every 4 trucks being offered to them right now. I was just on their load board and they have over 29,000 loads needing to be hauled right now!

    Are there any other large spot freight companies to look at to take advantage of this situation. Freight prices are absolutely going to increase significantly as demand has increased but supply has dropped.

    submitted by /u/AreYoukidd1ngMe
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    Ingredion ($INGR) Entering into Cellular Food Development

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 10:48 AM PDT

    Ingredion recently announced an investment in Clara Foods to develop animal free animal proteins, like eggs using cellular fermentation. Cell based food at Ingredion is an emerging part of their Specialty Business, which I'm finding quite interesting. My understanding is that Ingredion works with clients like large food chains and develop food inputs that enhance the food profile, so gluten free dough being more soft like traditional pizza dough. It's a lot to get my head around in terms of how much growth potential is here and how cellular food inputs will generally effect the overall food system, but this is a really interesting area. Ingredion and ADM both have an interesting value proposition within this space for B2B business, but then when I think about the rest of their revenue like starches, I'm concerned where this part of their business with be in the next 5 years...

    submitted by /u/almundane
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    I just lost access to the Value Line database

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 10:44 PM PDT

    I was using value line to get financial information. This was provided by my school. However, I just graduated and lost access to it. Is there a solid replacement that is hopefully free or low cost? I am considering going to the San Francisco library as they provide access to it. This is not ideal though as it is two to four hours away.

    submitted by /u/darklordnihilus
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    Anyone know of funds that follow insider trades?

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 07:54 PM PDT

    If you go to EDGAR and scroll down past the hyperlinked table to the transaction level detail, you can see a list of insider trades made. Do you guys know of any funds that track what insiders are doing?

    submitted by /u/Piyh
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    South Korea and Japan spar over export controls at WTO

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 05:56 PM PDT

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/South-Korea-and-Japan-spar-over-export-controls-at-WTO

    "South Korea urged Japan to withdraw restrictions on exports of semiconductor materials at the World Trade Organization on Tuesday even as the Japanese side flatly denied imposing a trade embargo."

    "In what is widely seen as a retaliatory move, Japan placed export curbs on South Korea-bound chipmaking materials Thursday after Seoul failed to intervene with Supreme Court rulings ordering Japanese companies to pay those forced to work for them during World War II."

    After smoot Hawley other countries felt obligated to start erecting protections as well. Could the trade war be a contagion that starts spreading beyond our control?

    submitted by /u/codefragmentXXX
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    JPM or ML?

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 11:02 AM PDT

    I'm at a point where I can go with JPM You Invest or Merrill Edge and not pay commissions either way. I'm really looking to consolidate to one firm/bank for ease of use and more perks as balances grow across banking and investments. If you only could choose between JPM or ML which would you pick?

    I'm mainly curious because I've noticed little nuances with ML like blocking some ETFs that JPM doesn't but You Invest in its current state is also not as robust as the ML Edge offerings.

    submitted by /u/aywyatt
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    What is the actual “correct” cap weighted split if you can invest in all public AND private businesses/homes?

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 07:59 AM PDT

    More simply put, are any of real estate, utilities, resources, tech, etc under/overweighted when only considering public markets?

    Also assuming that is true, is there a bias in terms of performance of the sectors that are under or over represented in public markets? Meaning, if you simply adjust your public cap weights to the "correct" amount do you not correlate 1-1 to global economy?

    Edit: this is a pretty advanced/abstract question so looking for links and discussions more than guaranteed correct answers (unless you've got them...).

    submitted by /u/kebabmybob
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    CannTrust: Buy, hold, sell? I see this stock drop 8% this morning and I wonder if this company will pull through. Supposedly, they aren’t making profit, they just had 5,000 pounds(2,267kg) of marijuana that’s now confiscated due to it being unregulated.

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 07:59 AM PDT

    The company looks like its earnings are going up but at the same time, is it setting itself up for failure? I see the price of the stock at the lowest it's ever been, $3.63(at this very moment) and I just can't help but think, this could just keep getting worse for them until they're bought out. Which also leads me to, if they are bought out, what happens to my stock in the company? If another cannabis/marijuana company buys them out, do I then have no equity, or do I then own the price equivalent of the new company's stock?

    submitted by /u/Comic_Smith
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    How do I analyze management?

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 05:44 AM PDT

    I always hear people talk about how one of the most important aspects to investing is analyzing management.

    How do I do this? How do I know if managers are smart, honest, shrewd and strategic?

    submitted by /u/hannibaldon
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    4 stock portfolio.

    Posted: 09 Jul 2019 03:37 PM PDT

    Forgive me if this a dumb question as I may not be thinking about all of the variables..... but wouldn't investing in 4 of the biggest companies in the world be better than investing in a etf like SPY or VTI?

    For example, a portfolio consisting of Walmart, Visa, Microsoft, and McDonald's. I understand that you aren't as diversified as with the etf but do you really need to be? These companies are the definition of too big to fail. Their reach is global and they should be at the forefront of each of their sectors. I would guess your returns with this simple portfolio would be slightly better than either etf and you wouldn't have to pay their fee.

    Please point out the flaws in my thinking, I'm here to learn.

    submitted by /u/S_Goodspeed3
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