It's moronic Monday, your chance to ask any of those lingering questions without fear of harassment. Investing |
- It's moronic Monday, your chance to ask any of those lingering questions without fear of harassment.
- Simple momentum investing via the long-term moving average
- Tencent music IPO listing in the US
- Paper Straw Revolution
- Vanguard Prime Cap? It seems too good to be true, is it?
- What portfolio changes do you make when we enter a bear market?
- Morning Highlights
- Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here
- Someone explain Netflix’s valuation to me
- What are your thoughts on CAT? It corrected ~ 20% and I would like to find an article that explains why?
- How does O have a sustainable business model?
- Why would anyony buy BAM over BAM.A (If they had the choice?)
- SBUX DCF Valuation
- Voting Rights
- 401k loan to hedge against market crash?
- What do you guys think of Turkey's economy?
- What are my retirement account options?
- What are your opinions stock pick subscription services?
- Is the market ignoring the trade war temporarily or permanently?
- YRD - Yirendai 7-9-18
- Warren Buffet Bond Valuation?
- Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here
- Does trading through robinhood effect trade execution?
- What is the difference between an Unleveraged CFD and a Stock?
| It's moronic Monday, your chance to ask any of those lingering questions without fear of harassment. Posted: 09 Jul 2018 05:05 AM PDT We encourage all our visitors to ask those investing related questions they were always too afraid to ask. The members of /r/investing are here to answer and educate! NOTE If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or anything similar. There is no single answer to this question, but we will also need A LOT MORE information if we are to give some sort of answer
Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Simple momentum investing via the long-term moving average Posted: 09 Jul 2018 12:10 PM PDT INTRO I have been researching a lot of factor investing techniques, and have come to the conclusion that most of the factors investors use are wastes of time. Most signals lose merit when empirically scrutinized, and those that remain do not seem trustworthy over decade-long investment windows. Except for momentum. For some reason simple momentum investing seems to be the one factor that remains consistent YoY, all for the simple reason that companies and economies that have done well in the past will typically continue to perform well in the future, and vice versa. X-day moving average (definition): the average closing price of the stock for the past X days. So a 200-day moving average is the average closing price of the fund for the past 200 trading days. TECHNIQUE Here's a simple method for momentum investing I've devised (IE: shamelessly copied from people smarter than myself):
That's it! DATA Momentum trades since 2008 using differing moving averages (MAs) in $VT (Vanguard Total World Stock ETF):
BACKTEST Here's how the 300-day MA would have performed against buy and hold for $SPY: https://dailyreckoning.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/5/files/2012/11/DRUS11-13-12-1.png (source). That's a 15-year return of 74.3%, almost double the return of simply buying and holding the S&P 500. BUT this return % does not consider taxes (see observation #6 below). OBSERVATIONS
CONCLUSION I don't think I'll use this approach as my main investment, since it doesn't take advantage of long-term capital gains tax rates, and thus has a lower overall return compared to simply buying and holding. However, I am strongly considering this as a major part of my overall portfolio. Perhaps 40% of my entire stock allocation. So that would be 40% momentum investing via the 200-day MA of $VT, and 60% in my regular buy and hold in index funds. [Note: I'm young and still have many decades of earning potential.] TL;DR: Momentum investing with major index funds is simple, requiring about 2 trades per year. Once per month (no more! no less!) look at your favorite major index fund. If the 200-day moving average is below the fund's price, be 100% invested in it. If the 200-day moving average is above the current price, safely move this allocation into 100% bonds. Stick to your rule! In doing so, you will enjoy healthy stock returns while avoiding the majority of market crashes, sleeping better at night during major market turmoil. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tencent music IPO listing in the US Posted: 10 Jul 2018 01:29 AM PDT This has the potential for a lot of growth It has around 600 million users, although only about 15 million of them are paying subscribers. Sounds similar to developed countries 10 years ago where piracy was big but eventually people are prepared to pay a little for legit music and easy access they will do that especially as China's middle class grows. Real potential to become similar to Spotify but with a huge population. They own QQ Music, KuGou and Kuwo. Source https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/09/technology/tencent-music-ipo-us/index.html Edit: Added source [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 09 Jul 2018 11:53 AM PDT Starbucks just announced they're moving away from plastic straws. Paper straws are a growing trend. Are there any public companies that would be good plays to take advantage of the paper straw revolution? [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vanguard Prime Cap? It seems too good to be true, is it? Posted: 09 Jul 2018 10:34 PM PDT I was looking specific Vanguard ETFs trying to find which version of the S&P 500 I was going to buy when I found this prime cap (VPMCX) It's returns are phenomenal for the past 30 years (almost always outperforming S&P 500) and it's fee is only 0.4% Is there something like a catch to this that i'm missing [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What portfolio changes do you make when we enter a bear market? Posted: 09 Jul 2018 10:44 PM PDT Let's say we enter a bear market next month with a -20% drop and no bounce back. What changes would you make to your portfolio (and what's your age/risk tolerance) [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 10 Jul 2018 04:18 AM PDT
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| Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here Posted: 10 Jul 2018 05:05 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or anything similar. There is no single answer to this question, but we will also need A LOT MORE information if we are to give some sort of answer
Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Someone explain Netflix’s valuation to me Posted: 09 Jul 2018 08:25 AM PDT Unless they monetize their viewing habits data by selling it to outside content creators, I don't see how they could ever justify even close to the valuation they currently have. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 10 Jul 2018 04:48 AM PDT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| How does O have a sustainable business model? Posted: 09 Jul 2018 07:35 PM PDT I have been looking at a REIT for my IRA account. It looks like O is diluting shares every quarter to fund their dividend. What is the end game with this strategy? Why not leave the dilution alone, cut dividend in half and slowly raise their dividend over time like most other companies? Is it tied to the opportunity to invest the money they get for dilution into more investments? Thank you for the advice. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Why would anyony buy BAM over BAM.A (If they had the choice?) Posted: 09 Jul 2018 07:07 PM PDT Assuming you have access to the Canadian market, which doesn't seem too difficult since I have access and I am British living in Asia. I would imagine most American brokers would offer access. Why would anyone choose BAM over BAM.A? Since 2003, they have performed 643% and 1012%, respectively. Such a huge difference. Basically same dividend. Likewise with CNI and CNR, who have performed 1576% and 2473%, since 1997. With such huge differences, it seems like a no brainer. Is it a tax thing? Edit: I understand there is currency conversion involved aswell, but surely the better performance negates that. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 09 Jul 2018 04:42 PM PDT Hi all, just looking for someone to sanity check my back of the napkin DCF valuation on SBUX. I ran a 10 year DCF using the following assumptions: -Sales grow 10% next year, and decrease at .5% each year for 10 years (5% growth in 2028) -Terminal g = 3% -WACC = 7% -FCF = 12.75% of sales (I noted that CapEx roughly equals D&A so they basically cancel out so I've made FCF = 98% of projected net income) -Subtracted liabilities and added cash and equivalents. Long story short, I've come to an equity market cap PV of 99B. SBUX is currently at 68.8B. Curious what anyone else comes to when doing their own assessment. Lets say that 99B is a good estimate of the companies true PV. Do you think it is a good buy today, or will it take 10 years to really reach that level before treading water at its fully mature value? If it will take 10 years to make 45% thats only about 3.78% per year, a horrible return. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 09 Jul 2018 12:05 PM PDT Hey everyone, I was just wondering if voting rights were that important in companies with dual-class shares... If the insiders hold the vast majority of the voting rights, what's the point of holding a minority voting power in second-class shares? I see GOOG stock is trading at an attractive discount and I feel like I should sell GOOGL (Class A) to get GOOG (Class C), is the voting right worth holding on to in a multi-class share system and if so, then why is that? Thanks [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 401k loan to hedge against market crash? Posted: 09 Jul 2018 08:29 PM PDT Looking for an educated explanation. Let's say I have been making great returns on my 401k and I sense a market crash. If I take the balance out as a loan is it safe from the crash? Are their rules around this activity? And finally why is it a good or bad move? [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What do you guys think of Turkey's economy? Posted: 09 Jul 2018 03:17 PM PDT How likely is full-on crisis? Is it an opportunity to get in government bonds cheap, or it's a very bad idea? Concerns:
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| What are my retirement account options? Posted: 09 Jul 2018 03:28 PM PDT I have three sources of income and have equity in all 3. The first is taxed as an S Corp, so I am paid on W-2 and then owners dividends. There are two other employees other than myself. The second is an LLC but I receive a draw plus dividends when they come. The third is just starting so there are no payments yet but eventually we will do owners dividends. It is structured as a straight up LLC like #2 above. I always thought my options were limited to just an IRA capped at $5500 because I can't do a solo 401(k) but I also can't do a SEP-IRA without other employees being affected. Are there any other options for pre-tax? [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What are your opinions stock pick subscription services? Posted: 09 Jul 2018 11:59 PM PDT I'm considering subscribing to a service something along the lines of the Motley fool or Zacks. I'd like to know if any of you use this type of service. Or would care to comment. I'm on the side of them not being very useful but it's something I've found intriguing lately. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Is the market ignoring the trade war temporarily or permanently? Posted: 09 Jul 2018 04:56 AM PDT I'm sitting on 70% cash waiting to buy the dip when tariffs come into effect on July 6th. However, the markets seemed to have already been priced in. Is anyone still sitting on cash waiting for a dip or is it time to buy now? - If that is, it even dips. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 09 Jul 2018 08:59 AM PDT I'm trying to figure out why YRD is trading at $22.37 from $51, does anyone have any insights? Quarter Earnings per Share Mar2018 1.72 Dec2017 1.11 Sep2017 0.74 Jun2017 0.66 Earnings Per Share is on a dramatic scaling rise. The company has zero debt and they earn money. I do understand there is a current stigma against Chinese stocks right now because of the trade war but would it be fair to consider it mostly priced in at this point? Is there concern about how loans are being issued? Basically I'm just looking at it scratching my head trying to figure out how a company that posts 6.35% profit per share in a single quarter appears to have fallen so far and I'm wondering if there is a factor that I'm not looking at. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 09 Jul 2018 07:36 AM PDT Not sure what to make of this from Buffett's letter to shareholders: "Originally, Protégé and I each funded our portion of the ultimate $1 million prize by purchasing $500,000 face amount of zero-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds (sometimes called "strips"). These bonds cost each of us $318,250 – a bit less than 64¢ on the dollar – with the $500,000 payable in ten years. As the name implies, the bonds we acquired paid no interest, but (because of the discount at which they were purchased) delivered a 4.56% annual return if held to maturity. Protégé and I originally intended to do no more than tally the annual returns and distribute $1 million to the winning charity when the bonds matured late in 2017. 12 After our purchase, however, some very strange things took place in the bond market. By November 2012, our bonds – now with about five years to go before they matured – were selling for 95.7% of their face value. At that price, their annual yield to maturity was less than 1%. Or, to be precise, .88%" Isn't the amount earned at maturity fixed? I assume the bond has already been purchased, so why would the selling percentage relative to face value matter any more- the $500,000 gain has already been guaranteed? [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here Posted: 09 Jul 2018 05:05 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or anything similar. There is no single answer to this question, but we will also need A LOT MORE information if we are to give some sort of answer
Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Does trading through robinhood effect trade execution? Posted: 09 Jul 2018 06:53 AM PDT Let's say I put in a limit sell order on SPY for 280 and make the order good until cancel is this order any different than if I placed it on Thinkorswim or vanguard? [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What is the difference between an Unleveraged CFD and a Stock? Posted: 09 Jul 2018 07:15 AM PDT I understand that when buying a CFD you do not own the asset, and that the main advantages of buying CFDs is that you can buy them on margin for considerable gains/losses. However, some brokers only offer unleveraged CFDS. In this case, am I correct in assuming that the profit potential between stocks and these CFDs is identical? [link] [comments]  |
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