Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Feb 11, 2022 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Feb 11, 2022
- The Fed needs to fix inflation at all costs
- Should i invest now, or wait until mid March once the rates go up and the market potentially responds with even lower prices?
- January consumer inflation expected to rise by 7.2%, the highest since 1982
- The Fed raising interest rates is nothing more than a monetary placebo
- What's the most misleading fact about a stock?
- Inflation rises 7.5% over the past year, even more than expected and the highest since 1982
- Cloudflare crushes earnings!
- Buying paypal now? dip or mistake
- Alibaba, bad sentiment, you see it a lot so let's debate, short write-up fundamentals.
- $CLF discussion
- Anyone else bullish on NVDA earnings report?
- ECB President Lagarde pushes back against acting ‘hastily’ over interest rate hikes
- Interest rates
- Affirm Drops on tweet...someone explain.
- Twitter misses earnings expectations across the board, authorizes $4 billion in share buybacks
- ATVI question
- Are we headed on a path towards deflation?
- What are you doing to invest in the EV market?
- WSJ Opinion: Why Big Companies Love Inflation
- Thoughts on TWOU’s ~50% drop?
- r/Stocks Daily Thread on Meme Stocks Friday - Feb 11, 2022
- Publicly traded veteran owned businesses?
- EV Infrastructure - Companies that own, build, or invest in real estate or retail of rural gas/charging stations?
- How will inflation affect stock prices in different industries?
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Feb 11, 2022 Posted: 11 Feb 2022 02:30 AM PST This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on fundamentals, but if fundamentals aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against fundamentals here and not in the current post. Some helpful day to day links, including news:
Most fundamentals are updated every 3 months due to the fact that corporations release earnings reports every quarter, so traders are always speculating at what those earnings will say, and investors may change the size of their holdings based on those reports. Expect a lot of volatility around earnings, but it usually doesn't matter if you're holding long term, but keep in mind the importance of earnings reports because a trend of declining earnings or a decline in some other fundamental will drive the stock down over the long term as well. See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki: If you have a basic question, for example "what is EBITDA," then google "investopedia EBITDA" and click the Investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. Useful links:
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments] |
| The Fed needs to fix inflation at all costs Posted: 11 Feb 2022 04:34 AM PST It doesn't matter that the market will crash. This isn't a choice anymore, they can only kick the can down the road for so long. This is hurting the average person severely, there is already a lot of uproar. This isn't getting better, they have to act. [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 10 Feb 2022 07:05 PM PST I'm wanting to invest a reasonable sum of money into the stock market, and i'm wanting to know what people's thoughts are on the best time to invest it. Prices are already very low on particular stocks, including some growth stocks, but with the FED due to increase interest rates next month in March, it would only make perfect sense for the stock market to finally come tumbling down in direct response. Of course, we don't live in a perfect world, and the stock market reacts irrationaly at the best of times, but logic would tell you this scenario should play out... should it not? So, with that said, what are your thoughts? Should i invest now when prices on some stocks are already very cheap after having corrections in the last few weeks, or should i play the long game, and wait until mid March when the rates are due to go up, and hope and pray that prices come down even more? [link] [comments] |
| January consumer inflation expected to rise by 7.2%, the highest since 1982 Posted: 10 Feb 2022 05:32 AM PST Economists are expecting another hot inflation report, with the headline consumer price index running at a 7.2% pace in January. CPI is reported Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET and is expected to show an increase of 0.4%, a slower monthly increase than December, which had a revised headline gain of 0.6%. The year-over-year forecast of 7.2% is the highest since 1982 and is up from 7% in December. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise 0.4% in January or 5.9% year-over-year, according to Dow Jones. That compares to a monthly increase of 0.6% in December and a year-over-year pace of 5.5% in the final month of last year. CPI is key for the markets since inflation is seen as a direct trigger for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, and economists are basing their forecasts for the central bank on how much they think inflation will slow from its rapid pace. The Fed has made clear it will fight inflation, and it is widely expected to raise interest rates multiple times this year, starting with a quarter-point hike in March. EDIT: Link has been updated [link] [comments] |
| The Fed raising interest rates is nothing more than a monetary placebo Posted: 10 Feb 2022 03:45 PM PST The core issue is that inflation this time around does not have much to do with pressures that have historically led to inflation. If Fed quantitative easing policy had anything substantial to do with current inflation we would not be seeing local inflation around the world in almost every single developed country. The pandemic obviously has a huge role in our current predicament. COVID completely threw out the rule book for both monetary or fiscal policy and the truth is our financial institutions are not able to realistically do much to combat the core, fundamental causes of inflation this time around (supply-chain issues). Raising interest rates at this point is only being done to erect a facade that the Fed is actually in control, when in reality they are trying to control an uncontrollable situation using old methods. In other words, it's nothing more than a placebo. Worse, raising interest rates may actually do far more harm than good in our current environment, because aside from the FAANGs and a few other key players the US economy has not even begun to recover from the pandemic and is actually in a far worse place that it was three years ago. I've got a decent background in economics but would love to hear a counterpoint to my thinking. [link] [comments] |
| What's the most misleading fact about a stock? Posted: 11 Feb 2022 06:27 AM PST It could be its moat, past performance, revenue growth, dividend, technology advantage , you get it. In my opinion, the PE, price to earnings ratio, it's the main one. However the orthodox ones and fans of Graham and Buffet will probably disagree. You are welcome to agree and you are also free to bash my opinion. [link] [comments] |
| Inflation rises 7.5% over the past year, even more than expected and the highest since 1982 Posted: 10 Feb 2022 05:36 AM PST Consumer prices in January surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening outlook for inflation and cementing the likelihood of substantial interest rate hikes this year. The consumer price index, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared to a year ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That compared to Dow Jones estimates of 7.2% for the closely watched inflation gauge. It was the highest reading since February 1982. Stripping out volatile gas and grocery costs, the CPI increased 6%, compared to the estimate of 5.9%. The monthly rates also came in hotter than expected, with headline and core CPI both rising 0.6%, compared to the estimates for a 0.4% increase on both measures. Core inflation rose at its fastest level since August 1982. [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 10 Feb 2022 02:18 PM PST Cloudflare, one of reddit most mentioned companies last couple of years has great earnings. For the full year, the company saw a revenue of $656.4 million, a 52% year-over-year increase, and a non-GAAP net loss of $15.1 million. In Q1, Cloudflare expects a revenue between $205 million and $206 million as well as a non-GAAP net income per share of $0.00 to $0.01. In fiscal 2022, the company is aiming for a revenue between $927 million and $931 million. They predicted a non-GAAP net income per share between $0.03 and $0.04. Cloudflare reports $656 million revenue in 2021, strong Q4 | ZDNet [link] [comments] |
| Buying paypal now? dip or mistake Posted: 11 Feb 2022 02:42 AM PST Hy! I entered trading in late December last year, mainly buying tech stocks and after reading many many articles i chose to invest into . I bought a few dozens of PYPL stocks at 198$, of course buying a few more when i thought "its a dip" and ultimately im around -28% so far on the stock. Of course i regret making poor decisions, but now i thought "maybe go all in on pypl?" and thinking or buyin the dip of dip at its continue to fell and around 118$. Do i make a mistake to buy again? I am planning to keep them for at least 1-2 years, does it make sense, will it generate any profit or i will just lose more? Thoughts? Is it a dip or is it just the case that paypal was overhyped and market corrects its pricing? [link] [comments] |
| Alibaba, bad sentiment, you see it a lot so let's debate, short write-up fundamentals. Posted: 11 Feb 2022 04:35 AM PST If you have critics or don't agree would love to hear it in the comments. This is from a long-term investing view, if you have a different approach that is fine. This is a short version of the write-ups I myself write. In this write up I do not discuss VIE structure (with valuation I take into account you don't own the assets), but it is personal if you want to take that risk. Alibaba - Write Up
Alibaba is a diversified company. Its largest segment is core commerce, which is selling products directly to consumers. In the core commerce segment, the business is very similar to Amazon. In this segment, Alibaba operates the websites Taobao, Tmall, and Alibaba.com, among others. In addition, the not yet profitable segment, cloud computing, is experiencing strong growth. This segment has a lot of potentials and, due to the effect of the economy of scale, it is planned to make good profits in the future. Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Internet Retail
Fast Grower: Alibaba is still a fast grower with an average growth of 25% per year (17,41 % revenue growth last year which is still great/fast). There will always be a moment when this growth will slow down and we take this into account in our conservative valuation. Outside of this, Alibaba is of course mainly active in China, where economic growth, and especially the growth of the middle class, is expected.
Alibaba's financial position is very strong. With a Debt/Equity ratio of only 0.65 at the time of writing, it has a very healthy balance sheet for a "Fast Grower". A current ratio of 1.65 which I myself find always nice to view (I use https://www.financialstockdata.com/, but there are a lot of sites for this) In addition, Alibaba's net profit margins have been around 20% in recent years and around 15% this year (due to "Tech Chinese Crackdown"). In short, despite the government's intervention last year, still has a strong financial position and profitability, especially for a growth company.
The management has recently started to buy back shares. In previous quarterly reports, it was reported that a buyback program of 15 billion is being made available. However, since 2014, shares have increased by 25%, so shareholders have been 'diluted' since the IPO. The share buyback is a big plus especially at this time as the share price is cheap at the time of writing (see valuation in point 6). Management, therefore, buys back shares cheaply, as a result of which you, as owner, get more of the company in your hands. In the long term, this yields returns. Moat: Competitive advantage Network Effects The major competitive advantage that Alibaba has is the network effect. Suppliers and consumers (within core commerce) are both customers for BABA. Because there are a lot of customers and suppliers at BABA, customers and suppliers are quicker to choose BABA sites. Switching Costs Besides the network effect, Alibaba has built an ecosystem around its customers and average customer purchases have been increasing. Because of this ecosystem, it is harder for customers to switch.
The following estimated net asset values are based on a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, in which we assume conservative growth rates for the Free Cash Flow. Despite the conservative assumptions, we still have a large safety margin (minimum 30%). Because I can not add pictures here I explain what I have used an extra high discount rate of 13 percent for the risks and as a point to show it is undervalued. And about 14, 11, 7 percent growth rates in the good, normal and bad cases. I say about it because I use the growth rate for the first 5 years and the next 5 years after that. Do not forget DCF's you have a lot of freedom in what you choose, that is why they can differ a lot and that is why I always do it conservatively, it gives you an idea what you should pay for a company or when it is a bit too much and that is great. But the number is not exact. You can see it more as eyeballing. If you have any questions about what I use and do for my research, or critics or feedback feel free to put them in the comments. [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 11 Feb 2022 06:15 AM PST Stumbled onto this company last week, took up an earnings related position but I'm thinking about going even longer. Want to hear some counterpoints and strategies… 10.5B valuation right now for a company that did 6B revenue last quarter, 17B over the last 4 quarters, quarterly revenue doubled from the same period last year, and the stock is only up 20% over 12 months.. A P/E RATIO BELOW 10?!? What is this? a genuine fundamentally good buy not centered on massive projected growth? I'm a bit smooth up top (ask when I bought PLUG for the only evidence you need) but I do get a warm and fuzzy feeling here. I'm also very bullish on materials, specifically metals and manufacturing, both of which this company seems to be a major player in. It's my thesis that even through a market pullback centered on tech, materials and industry will see a cyclical increase in long positions regardless. Low short interest, good volume this month, I think bigger players are already moving in. But again I'm not good at this stuff per-say.. I know of no major news recently or in the near future, but I'd love to hear your takes and counterpoints Shares, LEAPS, or am I big dumb? [link] [comments] |
| Anyone else bullish on NVDA earnings report? Posted: 10 Feb 2022 12:28 PM PST Nvda got beat down pretty hard with the rest of the tech stocks, but I feel like in the long run it will be a winner because it's technological advantage over other GPU makers and their innovation is so strong. Before every earnings report with NVDA I always am bullish and this stock is my biggest investment in a individual stock I own. I'm curious if any one else is also buying more NVDA before earnings and what your thoughts are? I personally just bought more today. Edit: For those of you claiming "confirmation bias" I specifically posted this to hear peoples opinions that were bearish… I have no interest in creating a echo chamber to hear my same opinions. [link] [comments] |
| ECB President Lagarde pushes back against acting ‘hastily’ over interest rate hikes Posted: 10 Feb 2022 11:53 PM PST Financial markets that have been pricing in faster-than-expected European interest rate hikes should, as they say, cool their jets. That's according to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who pushed back at speculation in an interview with Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland that published Friday. The comments came in response to a question as to why the central bank doesn't just fight higher prices with interest rate increases."This would not solve any of the current problems. On the contrary, if we act hastily now, our economies could recover significantly worse and jobs would be at risk. That wouldn't help anyone," she said. The euro EURUSD, -0.34% was last down 0.4% to $1.1376. European stock futures indicated a lower open for equities, on the heels of Wall Street losses after much stronger-than-expected consumer price data for January. As U.S. bond yields surged on Thursday, in reaction to that data, European bond yields were also on the rise, with that of the German bund TMUBMUSD10Y, 2.013% up 2 basis points to 0.287%. Bets on faster, higher interest rates in the eurozone have been rising since the ECB meeting last week, where Lagarde declined to rule out a 2022 rate hike, which some economists and market observers took as a hawkish turn. In comments to European parliament members on Monday, she also pledged a"gradual" approach to interest rate changes. "We have to keep in mind that every decision we make usually only takes full effect nine to 18 months later," she told the German publication. We are currently monitoring the rising inflation figures, which we include in our forecast. Inflation may be higher than we forecast in December. We will analyze that in March and then see what happens next." Lagarde said one reason for optimism on the inflation front is that much of it is down to a "sharp rise in energy prices." Noting how oil prices CL00, -0.22% have risen from under €20 in April 2020 to around €90 per barrel currently, she said the gain was unsustainable. Data released Friday showed Germany's annual rate of inflation rose at a slower pace in January at an annual 4.1% from December, which was the highest reading since the summer of 1992. The European Commission on Thursday lifted its eurozone inflation expectations to at 3.5% in 2022, up from its previous forecast of 2.2% published in November. [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 10 Feb 2022 05:13 PM PST Please bear with me, I really don't understand why the market freaks out when there is a rumor or announcement that interest rates are rising? Why does everyone start selling? Thank you for making me a little smarter. [link] [comments] |
| Affirm Drops on tweet...someone explain. Posted: 10 Feb 2022 12:13 PM PST Media is reporting that AFRM dropped 26% because of an early tweet...that said that the earnings report BEAT expectations. Doesn't it stand to reason that the stock price would shoot up? This actually helped my options, but I'm still curious as to why this would make the stock drop? [link] [comments] |
| Twitter misses earnings expectations across the board, authorizes $4 billion in share buybacks Posted: 10 Feb 2022 04:31 AM PST https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/10/twitter-twtr-q4-2021-earnings.html Twitter reported earnings for the fourth quarter of 2021 Thursday that missed analyst estimates on earnings, revenue and user growth. Shares popped more than 8% during premarket trading. Here are the key numbers: Earnings per share: 33 cents, adjusted vs 35 cents expected, according to a Refinitiv survey of analysts Revenue: $1.57 billion vs $1.58 billion expected, according to Refinitv Monetizable Daily Active Users (mDAUs): 217 million vs 218.6 million expected, according to StreetAccount The company provided revenue guidance for the next quarter ranging from $1.17 billion to $1.27 billion, while analysts had expected about $1.26 billion, according to Refinitv. Twitter also announced a new $4 billion share buyback program. Half of that will be an accelerated share repurchase with the remaining being repurchased over time, the company said. Despite the miss in user growth numbers, CFO Ned Segal said in a statement in the earnings release that its previously stated goals of reaching 315 million mDAUs in Q4 2023 and at least $7.5 billion in revenue in 2023 remained the same. [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 11 Feb 2022 07:10 AM PST I have recently started testing my hand with different options on a smaller account. I normally sell pretty much as soon as profits are made. I bought ATVI covered calls with 80$ strike expiring June 17th for 1.88$. Since the Microsoft deal annoucement, I have no clue what to do. I could lock in profits now like I usually do, but being fairly confident the deal goes through for 95$ per share I am wondering about other options. Am I better off exercising at expiry and holding for 95$? Having only ever sold them, I have no idea how this even goes? Thank you for any information. [link] [comments] |
| Are we headed on a path towards deflation? Posted: 11 Feb 2022 02:51 AM PST So with very high inflation now and the need and desire to get it under control as fast as possible the fed has to raise rates. Some are now talking about at least 100 basis points by June/July and a total of 6 to 7 rate hikes this year alone. This is somewhat reminiscent of what happened just before the "lost decade" in Japan, where in attempts to curb inflation, the brakes were put on too hard, too fast, causing deflation. Consumption went down and people started to save/ hoard money resulting in decreased prices, causing further saving and a deflationary spiral. [link] [comments] |
| What are you doing to invest in the EV market? Posted: 11 Feb 2022 12:04 AM PST Since Electric vehicles are obviously our only future for vehicles. It's obvious that some of our EV investments are going to pay off but there's so many options right now. Right now all I'm thinking about investing in a tridium D CFC because of Biden's plan. But what else is there besides LCI D and Tesla? I've heard a lot about NIO the Chinese one, But not enough to invest on it. Does anyone have any suggestions what are you doing to invest in the electric vehicle market? [link] [comments] |
| WSJ Opinion: Why Big Companies Love Inflation Posted: 11 Feb 2022 12:50 AM PST The video is quite short and enjoyable, but if you can't watch it here's the quick take:
So if these are true, we might want to consider investing in companies that:
What are some companies that fit this description? [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 10 Feb 2022 07:53 PM PST The company gave a 13% guidance instead of 18% for the year ahead. And the stock had such a huge sell off. At this point, the company's FY 21 revenues are more than the company's market cap. Kinda odd? Never seen anything like it. What do y'all think? Buy for Short term? Or won't touch with a 10 foot pole? [link] [comments] |
| r/Stocks Daily Thread on Meme Stocks Friday - Feb 11, 2022 Posted: 11 Feb 2022 04:00 AM PST The meme stock scheduled posts will run Mon to Fri and won't be a sticky; you're probably seeing this because automod sent you here or you woke up early Wall St time; good morning! Full list of meme stocks here. This will be updated at least once a week. Welcome traders who just can't help them selves discuss the same exact stock that's been discussed 100s of times a day. I get it, you want to talk about what's popular, what's hot, and that 1.. single.. stock you like.. well here you go! Some helpful links just for you:
An important message from our mod u/TCGYT regarding meme stocks. Lastly if you need professional help:
[link] [comments] |
| Publicly traded veteran owned businesses? Posted: 11 Feb 2022 09:10 AM PST With Black Rifle Coffee Company(BRCC) going public yesterday, it being a veteran owned business, and being a veteran myself - I'd like to invest in more businesses that are veteran owned. Is there a list anywhere of publicly traded companies that are veteran owned and/or veteran started? Thanks! [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 10 Feb 2022 02:15 PM PST POTUS Joe Biden announced a $5 Billion EV charging funding plan. What I want to know is if anyone in this community has. exposure to this. Specifically, I want to find companies that lease or own the retail space where these charging stations are going to be built. I understand President Biden plans to lead the world in EV infrastructure. If you have insights or wish to share how you are exposing yourself to this commitment PLEASE SHARE! Best, POP [link] [comments] |
| How will inflation affect stock prices in different industries? Posted: 10 Feb 2022 10:05 AM PST I am just getting into investing, but the news about inflation makes me cautious about it along growing concerns that the market will crash. Almost to the point of not investing. Obviously different industries will be hit in different ways, but is it likely to hit certain industries harder? [link] [comments] |
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