Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - February 12, 2022 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - February 12, 2022
- Traders Pricing Seven Fed Hikes This Year
- Anyone here invest in equipment that generates steady income?
- Strategy on investing ~200k in this market
- When to Take Profit in O&G Producers, Again?
- How much will I bond rates rise as benchmark rates go up?
- Who Do Brokerages Sell Their Debts To?
- Perfect Investing Strategy??
- Has any one ever used a trust to start a brokerage account?
- Is Gary Vaynerchuk the Warren Buffet of the modern era?
- Compound growth formula vs CAGR for calculating annual returns?
- Why Do People Buy Physical Gold Instead of Investing in Gold Mining Stocks?
- Why should you be looking at Build a Bear right now?
- How to aquire an investor / strategic partner?
- Want to become a full time investor
- How dose this sound? Can I do this?
| Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - February 12, 2022 Posted: 12 Feb 2022 02:01 AM PST Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments] |
| Traders Pricing Seven Fed Hikes This Year Posted: 12 Feb 2022 12:36 PM PST In the last few days the bond markets have gone from expecting one 25 basis rate hike by the next scheduled FOMC meeting, to almost certainty that there will be a 50 basis rate hike by the next scheduled FOMC meeting. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html The bond market is expecting either an unscheduled rate hike or a super sized rate hike in the next scheduled meeting. [link] [comments] |
| Anyone here invest in equipment that generates steady income? Posted: 12 Feb 2022 09:31 AM PST Some ideas I've heard of include:
I have some capital saved. And was wondering if there's equipment you can buy which then you can use to start a small business with regular income? Edited to add some good ideas shared by the group:
[link] [comments] |
| Strategy on investing ~200k in this market Posted: 12 Feb 2022 02:42 AM PST TLDR: So, you've got $200,000 in cash and you must invest all of it (or want to) in 12 months. How do you invest it? Especially considering this year coming up? Rising rates, covid backlash, Ukrainian invasion fears, etc. DCA or all at once? So I recently inherited some money, it's about $200,000 in an IRA account. It's 100% cash and I plan on investing this year but considering the current market conditions I'm conflicted on my approach and strategy. On one hand I could dollar cost average into the market using index funds at a rate of approx: $16,000 a month for 12 months. Or I could invest it all at once, diversification would be into 3-4 Index funds and ETF's for both ideas ofcourse. Another question, what is the opinion on bonds this coming up this year? Because with the rising rates, bonds will take a hit. Currently the three or four index funds and ETFs I will use all track equities. Ideas on bond allocation? 20%?100%? Lmao. But seriously. [link] [comments] |
| When to Take Profit in O&G Producers, Again? Posted: 12 Feb 2022 01:18 PM PST Hi all, As usual, I am writing this to (a) bounce around ideas and (b) have something written down to check my own self-selective biases and to evaluate my track record as an investor EOY. I was long in O&G for 2020 (bought XOM at around $32*), rode the Delta Wave in 2021, saw a possibility of making a few extra percentages during Omicron. So I exited O&G, shorted them, exited the shorts and then re-entered on the long side. As oil equities have risen around 10-30% YTD, I am again faced with the question: "what now?"
Valuation-wise, O&G equities are still quite attractive compared to where WTI is. Depending on the stickers and where WTI will be in the next 6 months (as long as it stays btw $65-75/bbl), I think o&g equities have another 10-50% run from here. If bad comes to worse, it's still likely that o&g will yield between 10-30% FCF for 2022, absent a recession. WTI price-wise, $90/bbl WTI, if adjusted for inflation, is actually only equal to about $72 in 2010. Expenses associated with energy consumption as a percentage of GDP per capita (60k today vs. 48k in 2010) are also not outrageous. Unlike most of the oil bulls, I expect the break-even price will rise with inflation as costs of labor and new equipment rise, at least in the short term. If break-even rises to $65/bbl, that $90 WTI doesn't seem so outrageous anymore. Supply-demand imbalance, there is a considerable consensus among heads of commodity traders of the big banks (with a vocal minority of opposing views) that we're still in the early innings of an energy supercycle. Also, the IEA recently published their report pushing back their previous timeline of when supply will outstrip demand. FWIW, the above views are the market's views.
Mass-psychology wise, I continue to think we're in the very early innings of mass euphoria in O&G. There is little to no pumping of O&G in r/wallstreetbets or r/stocks. When there is mentioning, it's usually household names like XOM or CVX. I joke that I will know that we reach peak euphoria when retail starts peddling pre-revenue O&G names. I don't invest based on the assumption that others will become irrational, but it informs my decision of when to take profit. In conclusion, depending on what happens between now and EOY, I plan to take profit in the O&G producers sometime in 2H2022. O&G moves fast and things can change in the blink of an eye. As usual, I reserve the option to change my thesis as events unfold (will update if I do). I receive a lot of counterarguments/pushbacks for my shorts during the Omicron Wave. But I think that made me a better investor. So, call me out. [link] [comments] |
| How much will I bond rates rise as benchmark rates go up? Posted: 12 Feb 2022 05:16 AM PST In addition to their inflation-based rates, I bonds also carry a fixed interest rate that is currently close to negligible. How will the fixed portion of I bond rates change as the Fed raises benchmark rates? Does a .50 hike by the Fed translate to a .50 hike to the fixed rate in an I bond? And if we expect the Fed to hike, would it make sense to wait until later this year to buy 2022 I bonds to get higher fixed rates? [link] [comments] |
| Who Do Brokerages Sell Their Debts To? Posted: 12 Feb 2022 11:11 AM PST Title says it all but maybe to clarify: Wallstreet bets has an affinity for loss porn which, while I really enjoy reading the crazy stories, makes me wonder where their margin debt gets sold off to. Brokerages like Webull and Robinhood extend margins to folks who, by their own admission online, have no intent of paying that money back. So what gives? Who assumes the risk here? Also, my understanding of margin is very limited so if my question is overly simple I apologize. Just trying to understand where this "money" goes. [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 12 Feb 2022 09:10 PM PST I just started earning and came to know that investing is very important to get financially strong. Everyone says we should do SIPs, once every month we invest an amount to get the benefit of averaging out the cost, but then if I want to invest 10,000 INR every month why don't we set up 4 SIP in a month one of 2,500 INR each week so get better averaging?? Apps have the option of auto-pay while choosing SIP plans, so it won't bother me just deduct the amount from my bank automatically, so why won't anyone talk about it, is there some reason investing once a month is better than it? [link] [comments] |
| Has any one ever used a trust to start a brokerage account? Posted: 12 Feb 2022 03:53 PM PST I got slaughtered on my capital gains taxes for 2020 day trading trading. I haven't started 2021 taxes but I don't expect them to be as bad. My investment strategy changed. I started taking a long position against the market back in July. To avoid capital gains has any one started a brokerage account in a trust? I'm thinking I could avoid capital gains as long as I don't withdraw money from the account. After three or four years dissolve the trust and pay a lower capital gains tax on the total gains. Has any one looked into this? [link] [comments] |
| Is Gary Vaynerchuk the Warren Buffet of the modern era? Posted: 13 Feb 2022 12:35 AM PST He's such an influential voice in the modern investing community, with an absolutely astonishing track record, as well as millions of followers who turn to him for financial advice. Considering how immensely successful Gary Vee has been with investments such as social media, trading cards, crypto, and NFTs, and the fact that he will only continue growing his portfolio and his fortune, is he the modern day equivalent of Buffet? [link] [comments] |
| Compound growth formula vs CAGR for calculating annual returns? Posted: 12 Feb 2022 06:32 AM PST The continuous compound growth formula is A=Pert, where t is the number of years, r is the average growth rate over those years, P is the starting and A is the value you have after t years. This can be rearranged to give r = log(A/B) / t The CAGR method is rather different, it is calculated as r = (A/P)1/t - 1 These two approaches to calculating annual returns give very different results, which one is best to use? [link] [comments] |
| Why Do People Buy Physical Gold Instead of Investing in Gold Mining Stocks? Posted: 12 Feb 2022 02:37 PM PST I get the hedge potential due to the inverse correlation with the dollar, but wouldn't gold mining stocks offer the exact same benefit as holding physical gold in a portfolio? If the economy goes to shit, clearly gold miners' stocks would di just as well as gold, wouldn't they? [link] [comments] |
| Why should you be looking at Build a Bear right now? Posted: 12 Feb 2022 06:58 PM PST I posted this a while back, got thrashed in the comments and it was downvoted into oblivion. Hopefully we can have a rational conversation about this stock that is absolutely ripping right now. Currently I'm up about 30% on my $2k position (options) and if (or when) BBW hits 30+ I'll be about +$13,000 according to options calculator. The target atm is $30 and it's been upgraded recently to a strong buy by fidelity and has been picked up by a few news sources as a stock to watch. The amount of news that's coming out has been a little tough to keep up with. Months ago BBW upgraded their guidance and they estimate they're going to triple their EPS and have the most profitable quarter in company history. Tbh, their revenue numbers and their balance sheet is the sketchiest part about this company. The new CEO has been making a ton of new initiatives and they'll be in a position to pay off their debt if things keep going positive for them. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/BBW/build-a-bear-workshop/revenue TLDR: they're making new partnerships and releasing limited edition and special bears and their most recent thing is that they have a special "after dark" line only available online…. at what looks like high margins and same day delivery. And within the last week they were voted one of the best places to work by Forbes yet again. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/forbes-recognizes-build-bear-workshop-160000796.html They're now marketing to every generation with their after dark and limited edition bears and they're able to capture a larger segment of the market. This gives them access to more wallets and higher ceiling for overall market share. Two other facts to consider is that their Price/Book is incredibly low for the industry (specialty retail: around 4) and the size of the float is actually incredibly small at 16,000,000. The stock pops up around February 14th already and when they put out their earnings report on 3/8…. Your guess is as good as mine about how high it goes. Anyway. Would love to hear what you think about all this and maybe even what I'm missing based on what you see. [link] [comments] |
| How to aquire an investor / strategic partner? Posted: 12 Feb 2022 07:44 AM PST I run a Car restoration business which i set up from scratch within a year. We are good in the profits. My Girlfriend and i planned to set up a limited this month and thought about investor-partnerships. We lack funds to buy Restoration-Objects and instead are at point where we buy & restore cars on order. We would like to go into retail aswell with restored cars. Anyone knows where to start searching? We're Based in Bangkok, Thailand. [link] [comments] |
| Want to become a full time investor Posted: 12 Feb 2022 10:12 AM PST I love the versatility of investing. Learning different fields and watching them grow and being a part of them. A few questions,
Ps. If I should take this post somewhere else let me know. [link] [comments] |
| How dose this sound? Can I do this? Posted: 12 Feb 2022 12:38 PM PST So I just have awoken to the idea that paper trading could actually be helpful, if one was to simulate a trade and watch the direction and then execute a live trade following the direction and then quickly exiting to make a profit would that be against the rules? [link] [comments] |
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