Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - November 20, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - November 20, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. November 20, 2021
- There's an extremely blatant astroturfing effort to promote mining-related stocks on this and other investment subreddits
- Value creation vs. Greed in Community Based Crypto
- Your Differential for Chinese EV stocks
- A Not So Hypothetical, Hypothetical Question
- Better to buy an etf like BND or just buy the bonds themselves?
- Do options and similar financial derivatives provide “real world” value or are they just bets between investors?
- Is there any kind of black swan event that could crash the entire tech sector?
- Anyone else interested in SQSP (Squarespace)?
- If you were making $10k/week how would you invest it if you needed most of it back in 1-3 years and were planning on going 2-3 years without any income?
- The Final Oil Short of 2021
- Disney rebound or fall???
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - November 20, 2021 Posted: 20 Nov 2021 02:02 AM PST Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments] |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. November 20, 2021 Posted: 20 Nov 2021 02:01 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 19 Nov 2021 08:32 AM PST This post about copper miners just hit the top of this subreddit, and it's a good example of the obvious astroturfing effort that's going on. Take a look at this account's post history and you'll see a common pattern: a few karma-farming posts from a couple of months ago that invariably come in subreddits like /r/aww, /r/nextfuckinglevel, /r/MadeMeSmile, /r/funny, etc. Then nothing, then a submission to a stock subreddit. Anybody with experience moderating subreddits can pick this out as a bought account immediately. This is an extremely common pattern where people build up some easy karma on a clean account and then sell it for use in various promotional campaigns. Take a look at the post content and you'll see a pattern that will repeat: one or two paragraphs of content-free 'analysis' about events in whatever mining sector, then a series of 'pitch' paragraphs where they link to a random junior miner and include the ticker. Presumably this is an attempt to pump/draw attention to these stocks. I've been noticing this happening in /r/investing and /r/stocks over the past few months, here are a few examples that I picked up in just 15 minutes by searching for recent posts about 'mining', 'copper', 'gold', and other such keywords. On each of these posts note the exact same post framework and then click on the username -> 'posted' tab to see the exact same type of post history.
This is just quickly scanning over posts in these two subreddits over the past month - it's been going on longer than that and I'm guessing is probably in other investing-related subreddits as well that I just don't see. Anyway, I don't have any personal opinion on the stocks or sectors in question, but I do feel it's good to point this out and to remind everybody that when you're reading stuff on Reddit you are not necessarily reading agenda-free or good faith discussions, you are being marketed to. So be suspicious about this stuff. Not sure how much the moderators can realistically do but maybe good for them to be aware of this as well (/u/MasterCookSwag, /u/dvdmovie1, /u/kiwimancy) [link] [comments] |
| Value creation vs. Greed in Community Based Crypto Posted: 19 Nov 2021 10:39 AM PST In pretty much any game where money's a concern, I enter it with the assumption it's already rigged. Even if you can't see it, there's always a house, and the house...we know what the house does, and it ain't losing. I feel that's where the market's at with the big players. Even the most boomer or normie-tier investors have, at the very least, HEARD of these. It's been made extremely available, too. It's almost easier to buy it than not. And that's what people are doing. They're hearing the buzz and forking over the dough. But why? Is it the low price? Is it the success stories? Is it the easy access? Is it the presence in the cultural zeitgeist? Probably all of these, really. But in all of these things, one critical element is missing: Honest, real discussion. Just try to have any real discussion about these types of coins with anyone who holds, or is purported to hold, a big-ass bag. Or a small bag. Whatever. You start talking about market cap, inflation, burn - honestly, any real concern that any reasonable buyer or holder may have, and watch how far you get. Watch how quickly your reasonable questions or concerns get swallowed up by the fervor of the irritated hivemind. Ever wonder what it feels like to be one of those huge hornets that gets vibrated to death by a bunch of bees? Just do the above. Closest human approximation there is. There's no actual reason for the few of these tokens to have succeeded beyond pure novelty and greed, but that won't be enough for long. They're simply vehicles by which the illusion of potential riches are delivered to the hungry, wanting masses. Truly disheartening to see how many people there are who are so eager to march to the beat of any drum, even if that march is gonna take them right off a cliff. I've spent some time lurking many, many crypt-communities. All are largely what I've described above: willing masses easily duped into closing their minds and opening their wallets, and their attitude reflects it. There's no real sense of community or belonging. It's simply "I put my money here, and now I must defend my money." That shit don't work. Money's no sufficient coagulating agent for the commingled blood of men. Pursuit of money and wealth alone are, by nature, selfish and isolating. Any community built around those as a central principle are doomed either to fail honestly or - worse - succeed dishonestly. For now, no one really gives a shit about these tokens. Nobody in those communities, or any others like them, gives a shit about each other on an individual level either. You're a drone. You're a Wallet. You're not Steve or Jane or William or Kate. To them, you're a Nobody. You're only as good as your ability to buy or sell, because there is no other element to their culture. All that said: If you think they will all always be like this, I think you've got the wrong of it. The next generation will be those that have a culture and community in in which the making of money is NOT the central element. It's mostly about content Truly. If a true community can be created, one where creating content on its behalf is the fun of it, it can be an extremely powerful flywheel. When the basis of the coin is community and fun, a self-reinforcing and bootstrapping process can occur. The money comes because of content, the creativity, and the enjoyment everyone gets from it. This is what attracts and retains new holders. It isn't the other way around. If participating in the community is a fun thing to do, generating money just happens to be a convenient side effect. [link] [comments] |
| Your Differential for Chinese EV stocks Posted: 20 Nov 2021 03:09 AM PST Which Chinese EV stock do you all pick for your portfolio? In terms of the stock's upside potential, growth, and legitimacy of the management team, etc., everyone seems to pick the big names like NIO and XPeng. Any other differential pick for us investors? Read an article on the EV stocks here: source [link] [comments] |
| A Not So Hypothetical, Hypothetical Question Posted: 20 Nov 2021 12:27 AM PST My friends. I would love your input in the following scenario. Your in your mid 20s and you have roughly 100k saved up and it's basically all in investments (stocks and crypto). You are wanting to purchase a house for numerous valid reasons but you also really want to retire in your 40s, if not at 40. However, buying a home in this area would basically wipe out all your savings and you would be starting over building the nest egg. You have a well paying job of over 100k a year. Buying the house I almost see as a setback to the retirement goal because your money is no longer working for you. The compound interest you would have been seeing on a six digit number would snowball much quicker than starting over but that seems like a 1 dimensional point of view. What else is there to take into consideration? [link] [comments] |
| Better to buy an etf like BND or just buy the bonds themselves? Posted: 19 Nov 2021 03:08 PM PST Been reading about bond investing in portfolios and just curious because what I see on etfs such as BND, the price per share is basically terrible over the long term. Why invest at all in this etf if your returns never go up much overall. Would it just be better to buy treasury bonds, wait the life and then cash them in? Also, can you purchase i-bonds directly through Vanguard or do you have to do it through a site like treasury direct? Thanks for your help. [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 19 Nov 2021 01:38 PM PST Forgive my weird terminology. So the way I understand it is that finance exists as a means to fund productive business ventures, and getting a reward for doing so. So a bank gives a loan to build a factory or whatever and collects interest, and when you buy stock you're giving money to a company to help it grow. When you buy a bond you're giving a mini-loan to some entity out there. There are (hopefully) positive, real-world effects tied to these financial instruments. It's not just limited to the finance world. But what about options or other derivatives? Do they have a productive, real world effect? Because intuitively it seems like it's a pure "bet" between two investors. Is there some kind of trickle-down or indirect effect? [link] [comments] |
| Is there any kind of black swan event that could crash the entire tech sector? Posted: 19 Nov 2021 11:46 AM PST Even if we don't explicitly choose to be overweight tech, most of our 401k's are heavily exposed to tech, considering that FANG, Apple & Microsoft make up 25% of the S&P 500. The NASDAQ-100 has had a remarkable run since 2003, having had only 1 negative year (2008, -41%) on a total return basis and 2 (2018, -1%) on a nominal basis. Everyone's moving to the cloud, and there are plenty of exciting new technologies on the way (autonomous driving, virtual reality, internet of things, etc. etc.) The internet bubble popped in 2000 because it was being driven by a lot of lower quality companies. This time, FANG+ are generating massive profits and Facebook/Apple/Google are trading at 24 to 28 times earnings - high but not extravagant. And it took 6%+ interest rates to pop the bubble back then. Many people, myself included, cannot conceivably think of a scenario or black swan event that could sink this industry & produce steep losses like in 2000-2 & 2008. But it's precisely times like this when it's good to get defensive and hedge against downside risk ... yet in consideration of the above, hedging just feels like throwing money away. What do you think? Are you hedging your tech exposure? [link] [comments] |
| Anyone else interested in SQSP (Squarespace)? Posted: 19 Nov 2021 01:57 PM PST I haven't done too much DD, just checking in with you guys. They lost 10% today and I think now's the time to get in on it. I don't particularly like the company as a consumer, but I don't really think they're going to fail within the next few years. I haven't seen a ton of activity for them either, but it feels like there's nowhere to go up with this one. Forecasts are looking like at least a 5% increase if not a 62% increase on investment over the next year. Curious what you all think. [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 19 Nov 2021 06:18 AM PST Hey all! Could use some advice. I've recently started making very good money and will continue to for a while. I currently have $65k invested in stocks on fidelity and $55k sitting in my bank that I don't need anytime soon. I plan to go back to school either in a year or 2 years. School will be 3 years long and I will only be able to work a very small amount during the first year. School will cost over $100k alone. I should very easily be able to make at least $5k/week for a while due to current/predicted work bonuses. For example, I made $73k in the last 6 weeks, but expect bonuses to lower as they have already started to go down some. I will need this money and have been busting my ass working 60+ hours every week for almost 2 years. I don't plan to invest it too risky. Most of my current portfolio consists of stocks already so I don't need more risk. No options. Mostly looking for insight on decent low risk returns/low taxed investments. What I'm asking is: if you were in my situation what would you do? [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 19 Nov 2021 07:19 AM PST Hi all, If you check out my history, you'll know that I went long on oil stocks and sold out most of my position a while back (OXY, OVV, HP). I lucked out on HP as I sold it the day before earnings, which resulted in a 14% correction as HP is still incurring massive loss. The reason I sold were twofold: (1) oil made a massive rally from September to October, so profit taking is warranted; (2) UK and EU covid cases were and still are trending up, and the bigger point is that the US chart is showing the same direction. On this COVID cases situation, once new cases start rising, it will not stop going up for 2-4 weeks when new cases plateu and then start trending down. If you check back this year, new COVID cases and oil price follow an almost perfect reverse graphs. Easy to understand: more lockdown means less energy needed. So just holding cash is not good enough for me. I feel that the market still has not fully priced in this final oil price correction. As such, I bought puts on some of the same oil companies I went long previously that have the most exposure to oil spot price. I avoid the ones with the most pristine balance sheet (OVV) in favor of the one with the most troublesome debt burden (OXY). Experience watching these stocks tell me that OXY has a lot more room to fall in the case of an oil price slump than those with better earnings. I predict that this will be the final wave of COVID as far as the world is concerned. After this, society will be too jaded and fatigue to do any serious curtailment or lockdown. Let me know your thoughts. [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 19 Nov 2021 06:48 AM PST Now disney is fairly stable of a company so im not gonna sit here and say its gonna plummet to 0. But after the huge decrease after quarterly reports alot of analysts are lowering their projection. Theres also the ESPN rumors so thats a whole other thing that i think will help the stock all of this is a matter of when. So what im here to ask you is do you think disney will start to rebound this month keep going down or plateau? Im a firm believer in the mouse and ive already bought the dip but next paycheck im thinking if its my best bet to buy in again or to go with some etf or tech stock. [link] [comments] |
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