Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - October 02, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - October 02, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. October 02, 2021
- Bloomberg claims "New research shows insider trading is everywhere"
- Rivian, electric vehicle maker backed by Amazon and Ford, files to go public
- Michael Burry (The Big Short) Says Passive Investing is Doomed
- Different portfolio strategies.
- Sharing Research on Cybin (CYBN) - A New Psychedelic Pharma Company
- How does a Bond's maturity affects the earning statement of a company? (Security Analysis book)
- What happened to Sinic Holdings?
- Is it true that you should always spend money to build wealth? is there any reason to save money you don't need?
- Are there any tools that allow you to measure probability level of a stock reversing direction?
- OPENDOOR ($OPEN) Q3 Results
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - October 02, 2021 Posted: 02 Oct 2021 02:02 AM PDT Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. October 02, 2021 Posted: 02 Oct 2021 02:01 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Bloomberg claims "New research shows insider trading is everywhere" Posted: 01 Oct 2021 01:20 PM PDT Gems include: "In 2008 a group of quants from Citigroup Inc. published a paper that found a portfolio mirroring insiders' trades could yield an astonishing 23.5% a year, more than all but the most profitable hedge funds." ""There is a lack of appreciation for the amount of opportunistic abuse that exists under the current system, the amount of egregiousness," says Daniel Taylor, a professor at the Wharton School and the head of the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab. "Most Americans today believe the stock market is rigged, and they're right."" On one hand, everyone basically already knew this. On the other, it seems like there is zero momentum to do anything about it. [link] [comments]  |
| Rivian, electric vehicle maker backed by Amazon and Ford, files to go public Posted: 01 Oct 2021 03:25 PM PDT Here is the S-1 filed with the SEC: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000119312521289903/d157488ds1.htm Rivian Automotive, a company developing electric vehicles, including commercial delivery vans for Amazon, filed for an initial public offering on Friday. The company aims to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol "RIVN." Its paperwork shows a $994 million net loss on zero revenue in the first six months of 2021. In 2020 the company's net loss came to $1.02 billion. The company wrote in its filing, "We are a development stage company and have not generated material revenue to date. Vehicle production and deliveries began in September 2021." Rivian beat Tesla, GM and Ford to the market with an electric pickup, the R1T, which has received glowing early reviews. The company plans to launch a seven-passenger SUV called the R1S in December, it said in the filing. CEO RJ Scaringe, who has a Ph.D. from the Sloan Automotive Laboratory at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, founded Rivian in 2009. The company is based in Irvine, Calif., with 6,274 employees as of the end of June. It operates a vehicle assembly plant in Normal, Illinois. Amazon and Ford each own more than 5% of the company. Peter Krawiec, Amazon's senior vice president of worldwide corporate and business development, sits on Rivian's board. Rivian's commercial vehicle business will be highly dependent on Amazon for the foreseeable future. The company said Amazon has some exclusive rights to purchase electric delivery vehicles from Rivian for at least four years, and the right of first refusal after that. Like Tesla, Rivian remains a non-unionized automaker for now. The company's filing acknowledged that this status could change and impact labor costs. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/01/electric-vehicle-maker-rivian-files-to-go-public.html At a valuation of $80 billion, seems overvalued. But in this crazy market, who knows... Edited after seeing /u/fichurn626 comment that they already have vehicles off the production line. [link] [comments]  |
| Michael Burry (The Big Short) Says Passive Investing is Doomed Posted: 01 Oct 2021 05:09 PM PDT https://fortune.com/2021/09/20/michael-burry-passive-investment-advice-big-short-twitter/ Title says it all but wondering what you all think. If true, and we're destined for Great Recession 2.0, what's the better liquid investment choices? Not asking for individual advice, as I have a ways to go until retirement and will likely keep most of my holdings in VTI regardless and take whatever comes. [link] [comments]  |
| Different portfolio strategies. Posted: 01 Oct 2021 06:52 AM PDT Hello, this post is just to get an idea of different portfolio strategies. Lets say you had an arbitrary amount to invest, 20k for example. What would your portfolio look like? What percentage would you allocate towards individual stocks, etfs, mutual funds, dividends, etc. Aggressive growth vs long term holds. And specific tickers that interest you all? This post is more geared towards getting an idea of different investment strategies and where you would allocate/diversify ones investments. [link] [comments]  |
| Sharing Research on Cybin (CYBN) - A New Psychedelic Pharma Company Posted: 01 Oct 2021 07:57 AM PDT Let me start out by saying that I am NOT a professional analyst, and that this is NOT investment advice. I am simply sharing the research I've done on this company. I own around 325 shares. 1. What is Cybin? Cybin is a budding Toronto-based biotech company whose goal is to produce psychedelic-based therapeutic medicines for addressing various mental health issues. The psychedelic in question is Psilocybin, the active compound found in so-called "magic mushrooms". They aim to do this through proprietary drug discovery, new drug delivery systems, and new formulation and approaches for different psychiatric disorders. For the most part, these psychiatric disorders include Major Depressive Disorder and several types of substance abuse including alcohol and nicotine. Millions around the world are afflicted by these issues, and of course that comes with a multi-billion dollar healthcare opportunity. 2. Why Psilocybin? Over the past few years, research has been conducted concerning psilocybin's effect on mental health, with some promising results. Here are the recent studies that Cybin specifically cites - Journal of Humanistic Psychology, 2017 – Alexander Belser et. al. This study bills itself as the "first qualitative study of participant experiences in psilocybin-assisted psychotherapy". It was a relatively small study with only 13 participants aged 22 to 69 with an average age of 50 years. All were affected by elevated anxiety associated with a cancer diagnosis. They were provided doses of psilocybin and therapy – and the transcripts from those therapy sessions were analyzed to find common themes. Among all or most of the subjects reported easing of their symptoms and a desire to repeat the experience of taking psilocybin. Some participants showed strong positive reactions to the treatment, such as improved relationships and catharsis of powerful emotion. The overall conclusion of the study is that psilocybin-assisted therapy may provide an effective treatment for psychological distress in cancer patients. Some background on the main author – Alexander Belser holds a PhD in Counseling Psychology from New York University and was a clinical research fellow at Yale 2018-2019. He has spent a couple of decades researching the possibility of psychedelic based clinical treatment with several peer-reviewed journal articles. 2015-2017 He also served on the Board of Advisors for Compass Pathways – a well-known mental health care company. He is the Chief Clinical Officer of Cybin as of November 2020. Elsevier Journal of Psychiatry Research, 2020 – Simon Goldberg, et. al. In this meta-analysis, 117 participants were studied across 4 groups; 3 with randomized-placebo controlled tests and 1 uncontrolled. All participants were clinically evaluated to be experiencing elevated levels of anxiety and/or depression. Biases attempted to be mitigated through study design included selection, performance, detection, attrition, and reporting bias. Analysis showed an "evident" effect with statistically significant reductions in anxiety and/or depression systems based on clinical evaluation. Adverse reactions were minor and subsided within a few hours; no long term or serious adverse reactions were recorded. The meta-analysis provided a few concessions – first that there were only four studies totaling 117 participants. There was a high risk of bias, including the fact that all participants must have been willing to take a Schedule I substance, and that three of the four studies involved cancer patients who may not otherwise be experiencing anxiety and/or depression. There was also limited diversity among subjects (58.25% Female, 86.33% White). JAMA Psychiatry, 2020 – Alan Davis, et. al. This study sought out to study the effect of psilocybin therapy on patients with Major Depressive Disorder. It studied a pool of 27 participants aged 21 to 75 who all were afflicted by MDD and not currently using antidepressant medications. There was also a focus on cancer patients and other treatment-resistant cases of MDD. The participants were split into two groups of immediate treatment and 8-week delayed treatment. Ultimately, the study found statistically significant improvements in the clinically evaluated MDD among the participants including half of them in remission by week 4 of the study. The study compared the efficacy of Psilocybin to Ketamine (an already prescribed drug) but with an effect lasting about twice as long (4 weeks versus 2 weeks for Ketamine). Psilocybin, like most psychedelics, also has a low likelihood of addiction (unlike Ketamine). The study posits that this method of therapy could also be useful for treating a variety of psychiatric conditions including substance abuse disorders. Although the science is still relatively young, Psilocybin shows positive results in a variety of studies, and has done so for a number of years. What is left is to harness the power of this drug the way we need it to be used. 3. The Cybin Approach (Development Pipeline) Not a lot of analysis in this section, but to continue setting the stage here is Cybin's "three-pillar" approach to drug development – 1. Novel Drug Discovery Platform - API Modification Develop new APIs via selective modifications of tryptamine and phenethlyamine-based scaffolds specifically to alter their pharmacokinetics without modifying their therapeutic potential. (Changing the way drugs move through the body without reducing their effects) Modifications involve replacing selective hydrogens with deuterium atoms. Optimizing unique physicochemical attributes e.g. salts, crystal forms, co-crystals, etc. Pillar One is all about discovering and creating compounds for more efficient drug design. 2. Proprietary Drug Delivery Systems – Research and Develop Efficient delivery system that attempts to bypass the liver metabolism with a direct path to the brain providing faster onset (sublingual distribution). Modified-release formulations with the potential to reduce side effects and to control exposure. Dose control through proprietary device platform. Delivery systems may be applied to many psychedelic compounds. Pillar Two is all about controlling the way the isolated compound is administered, allowing for varying dosages and reliable medication times – this way patients can get the therapeutic effects of Psilocybin without feeling "high" and being potentially incapacitated for several hours. 3. Innovative Treatment Regimen – Science Meets Technology Software-based platform to gather clinical research data from psychedelic treatment. Machine learning-based data analytics for improved patient outcomes. Patient therapy and integration support. Pillar Three is all about leveraging technology and data analysis to create effective drugs and treatment plans. This is where they will utilize their partnership with tech startup Kernel, who has created "Flow" – a non-invasive brain monitoring interface. Kernel Flow is like a motion-capture helmet for the head, but utilizes over 1000 sensors to monitor, image, and record precise brain activity with a rate of 200 samples per second. This data will be used to create patient-specific treatment plans. 4. Achievements and In-Progress In this section we won't bother to address superfluous awards or honorary mentions, but instead will focus on actual business activities. So far they have 15 patent filings, including international patents, which cover a variety of things including novel psychedelic compounds, integration of delivery platforms, methods of use in psychiatric indications, and the drug discovery pipeline of modified and novel ergolines, tryptamines, and phenethylamines. There over 50 molecules covered by these patents. On the drug development side, there are currently 4 active drug programs – CYB003-005 cover three drugs who are being designed to respectively treat alcohol abuse, anxiety disorders, and the last to be used for general psychiatry and neurology. These three are still in their pre-clinical phases. CYB001 is the flagship drug, isolated and modified psilocybin in a sublingual (under-the-tongue) film delivery used to treat Major Depressive Disorder. CYB001 is intended to begin Phase IIA trials by the end of this year, to be followed up with Phase IIB. In the clinical trial system, Phase I provides small doses to subjects and they are observed for extreme side effects or other danger. While completion of Phase I does not necessarily mean the drug is effective, it shows that in a controlled setting the drug is safe to use – and several participants still report positive effects. In Phase II, a larger group of people are split into various treatment groups with varying levels of drug dosage. Placebos are not used in Phase IIa. Phase II will verify that the drug works to some extent, will provide effective data on proper dose ranging (i.e. finding ideal minimum and maximum doses), and will also potentially reveal less-common adverse effects. So long as Phase II still indicates the drug is safe and possibly effective, the drug will move to Phase III which involves the intense scrutiny of double-blind studies, placebos, etc. and is the final phase before being released to market. In CYB001 Phase IIa, 40 patients will evenly split into treatment groups to be given dosages in the range of 1mg, 3mg, 5mg, 7mg, and 25mg. Phase IIb will examine a group of 120 patients, 80 of which will receive a dose based on the data from IIa, and the remainder will receive a placebo. Phase II will take a total of 12 months, so a Phase III would not be expected until at least 2023, with probably 2024 being the year brought-to-market assuming everything goes well. CYB003 and 004 are "near" human studies, but no estimated date yet. 5. Other Notes This write-up could really be miles long, but I definitely don't have the discipline for that. I'm not a financials guy, so I couldn't tell you much about how they're doing in this startup phase of the company. So far, the company has managed to raise around C$120M. The team at Cybin is diverse which includes: the former Ontario Health Minister, the former COO of Loblaws, Canada's largest food and drug retailer, investment banking experience involving the execution of billions of dollars' worth of mergers and acquisitions, experienced "new age drug" investment with previous work in cannabis startups, decades of experience in the healthcare industry, and much more. Obviously, the biggest risk to investing in this company is that they cannot create an approved drug, or it just isn't that effective. This however does create a large upside, and at around $2.10/share, there is potential to even have a 2x bagger just on news that they're moving to Phase III trials. An actual drug may be able to bring 4-5x returns by around 2024-25. [link] [comments]  |
| How does a Bond's maturity affects the earning statement of a company? (Security Analysis book) Posted: 01 Oct 2021 01:44 PM PDT I'm currently reading Security Analysis (Second edition), it mention how interests, amortization and depreciation will greatly affect the company's earning, and how by undervaluing it's assets the company can "increase" it's earning (because of less depreciation). However I didn't see any mention on how a bond's maturity will affect the earning. For example: Let's say a company issues a 10-Y 5% $1000 bond, so each year it has to pay $50 in interests, it's gross earning is $200. So $200 - 50 (interests) -30 (depreciation) -10 (amortization) -20 (taxes) = $90 net earning per year, meaning that if earning doesn't increases the company won't be able to pay back it's $1000 debt upon maturity, even though the interested payments are fully covered. Shouldn't the company be setting money aside for the bond's maturity, and shouldn't that be deducted from it's earning like depreciation and amortization? also, what's keeping the stockowners from giving themselves a $90 dividend and giving the middle finger to the bondholders? (the company would still be paying the interests, and would not default until the 10-Y maturity, so the stockowners could milk it for 10 years) [link] [comments]  |
| What happened to Sinic Holdings? Posted: 01 Oct 2021 12:01 PM PDT It dropped over 80% and trading was halted back on September 20th due to the Chinese Real Estate issues, but I have seen no news and it hasnt been trading since from what I can see. Any explanation? I can't seem to find any new news articles about the situation, and when I do a basic Google search (unreliable, I know), I do not see any updated trade data. Let me know if you find or know anything, thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Oct 2021 02:29 PM PDT I mean, it may sound odd at first but here's my thinking. Saving, especially with interest rates as low as they are, won't do much at all ever. you could quite literally make more money in a shorter amount of time by going coin scavenging in parking lots. But while the most obvious example of this would be, say, spending 50 dollars to buy a share of a stock, and the stock price increases. you now spent money to make money. But isn't that the only option with everything and anything at this point? there is no point in saving money, so your only other option is to spend that money to invest it, whether it is in yourself, the stock market, or something physical that has value, such as a house or business you own yourself. It just seems like there is no point in saving money. With inflation, among virtually no positives to just saving money when it does nothing, it seems like the best way to preserve or build wealth is to just spend it, right? People might look at your bank account and think you're broke without realizing that you have actual assets working for you, either with real estate, stocks, etc. This is just my thinking. I invest every single penny i do not need to live. The other plus side about buying physical things or stocks is they have value past just being an investment. you can for example, live in a house or your business, or your stocks are working for you in terms of price appreciation, dividends, or you can get more money by spending money to further your skills, trade, or education, etc. it just seems like there's no reason not to spend money. a lot of people i know seem to be saving money under their mattress and have it just be doing nothing. it just makes no sense to have money (that you don't need, mind you) doing nothing if you don't use it or have it work for you. [link] [comments]  |
| Are there any tools that allow you to measure probability level of a stock reversing direction? Posted: 01 Oct 2021 11:02 AM PDT A lot of the technical indicators out there tend to be image based using bars and lines. Is there any tool that tells you something like "based on average drawdown in the past blank period there is 1% probability that this stock will bounce off" at 3000 bla bla bla bla. So far I've been using a mental heuristics to time the market which has worked for me so far during corrections for example for the stock market 2% correction has a good probability of reversing, 5% correction has a high probability of reversing, 10% has a very high probability of reversing etc for the SP500. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Oct 2021 12:21 PM PDT Disclosure: I'm long ~550 shares of OPEN and plan on buying short dated calls the week before earnings that expire the following week. I wanted to provide an update on my post from earlier in Q3 where I tried estimating Opendoor's Q3 revenue. Now that Q3 is over we have a full picture of the transactions that occurred and can (hopefully) predict the outcome of Q3 revenue. OPEN provided guidance of $1.9 - $2B for Q3. I used ibuyerstats.com to analyze all transactions. In Q3, I calculated an estimated 9,218 homes were removed from the website. At an average value of $345,000 per home, that would total $3.18B in revenue. However, using Q2 data from the website and press release I was able to determine that 12% of the homes removed from listing were removed for purposes other than a sale. Therefore, if you remove the 12% (assuming this stays close to consistent in Q3) I estimate revenues will land around $2.7B. Not often do you see 40% beats on revenue estimates, but this is very possible. Here's to a $3.5B+ Q4 and a $15B+ FY2021. One other thing to note: OPEN was predicting profitability in 2025 not long ago. They are likely to be come profitable in Q3 or Q4 THIS YEAR. Get in while you can. [link] [comments]  |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Lose money with friends!. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
No comments:
Post a Comment