• Breaking News

    Wednesday, September 29, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Sep 29, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Sep 29, 2021


    r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Sep 29, 2021

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 02:30 AM PDT

    These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts.

    Some helpful links:

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
    [link] [comments]

    Wtf is going on with the market?

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 09:15 AM PDT

    Everything I own is nosediving. I've never been a panic seller but Holy crap am I starting to panic. I'm already at a huge loss and I've run into some bad financial luck so I'm just struggling all around. Any advice?

    submitted by /u/FundamentalMentalFun
    [link] [comments]

    $GGPI - EV company backed by Leonardo DiCaprio with over 20k cars delivered and $1.6B revenue this year to go public DD

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 06:57 AM PDT

    GGPI is bringing Polestar public, which is a swedish electric vehicle company that has ACTUAL REVENUE from vehicle sales worldwide! They have delivered well over 20,000 vehicles so far, and they are projected to have a revenue of $1.6B this year.

    Here you can see some sales data from Europe, not included are the sales in China and North America:

    https://www.polestar-forum.com/threads/polestar-european-sales.573/post-66880

    The table shows the numbers in million SEK, Polestar did $636 million USD in revenue in 2020 which is slated to grow by 151% in 2021 to $1.6B: https://imgur.com/PpSpkrX

    That's BEFORE the release of the Polestar 3, their new SUV which will be "made in the USA" in Ridgeville, NC, as well as their 4th model which is the Polestar Precept. It is a full-size electric sedan comparable to an S-Class or the Lucid Air in size: https://www.elektroauto-news.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/DSCF2201a.jpg

    Guggenheim Partners is a massive investment bank with over $250B AUM. They are well-known within the industry with a great reputation. Ever heard of the Guggenheim Museum for modern art in New York? They belong to the big boys club.

    Upside:

    I am pretty sure you guys know that LCID is trading at $42B and Rivian is looking to IPO at $80B this year. Together they have delivered 0 vehicles to their customers, Polestar is going public at $20B at $10 per share. You can do your own math but I am pretty confident a 50% upside or $30B marketcap are realistic for this company. There are good arguments why this should be worth more than Lucid but I am not starting to argue about that.

    MY POSITION:

    12,150 shares and 100 calls of different strikes and expiries.

    If you want to check out the customer feedback you may go to r/Polestar I feel people over there actually bought the cars and seem honest about pros/cons.

    submitted by /u/Sam-101010
    [link] [comments]

    Here's Your Daily Market Brief For September 29th

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 05:24 AM PDT

    Top News

    • S&P 500 Futures are +.59%; Dow Futures are +.45%; NASDAQ Futures are +.78%
    • US stock futures move slightly higher after the worst drop for the S&P 500 in around 4 months. Bond yields taper marginally lower although the 10-year treasury yield is still at the highest levels since June
    • China's Evergrande situation is back in focus as it's facing another bond interest payment this week without any indication of paying off a separate interest payment last week. Governments across the world (e.g. Hong Kong, US, etc.) started asking banks and lenders about their exposure. Note: Evergrande is trying to scrape some cash together by agreeing to sell a stake in a Chinese bank for ~$1.55B
    • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that her department will run out of money on October 18 if the funding bill to avert a government shutdown is not approved this week. Note: President Biden canceled his trip to Chicago today to negotiate with lawmakers for his party's $3.5T budget plan

    Price Target Updates

    • Barclays cut Micron Technology, Inc. MU price target from $110 to $87
    • Bernstein raised the price target on The Boeing Company BA from $252 to $279
    • Cowen & Co. lowered the price target for Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT from $400 to $375

    In Other News

    • July 2021 home prices jumped up a record 19.9% according to the Case-Shiller survey. Note: This is the 4th consecutive month in which the growth rate set a record
    • Senator Elizabeth Warren said she will not support Jerome Powell for a 2nd term as head of the US central bank
    • UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the fuel crisis is stabilizing
    • Lucid started production of its first EV for customers and targets late next month for deliveries
    submitted by /u/hivincentc
    [link] [comments]

    How do i begin searching for companies to invest in?

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 06:46 AM PDT

    What is the first thing i should do if i want to find new companies to invest in? I was lucky in finding a small cap company a few months back and made a profit from selling its shares recently because it turned out great but now i can't seem to do it again. How should i go about finding these companies? I have always thought of it as just simply google searching but i feel that there's more to it than that and would like to get advice on where should i begin. Thanks

    submitted by /u/Dizdieek
    [link] [comments]

    Here is a Market Recap for today Wednesday, Sept 29, 2021

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 01:21 PM PDT

    PsychoMarket Recap - Wednesday, September 29, 2021

    After suffering one of the worst days all year yesterday, stocks stabilized today, with the three major indexes trading modestly green as Treasury yields pulled back from multi-month highs. Lots of dynamics affecting the market right, with market participants closely monitoring developments out of Washington D.C, communications from the Fed, and ongoing situations in China.

    Yesterday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield spiked to as much as 1.56%, the highest level since June, which pressured tech stocks, causing the Nasdaq (QQQ) to fall by more than 2.5% yesterday. Rising Treasury yields hurt high-growth stocks, like technology, the most because these companies require a lot of capital to fund their growth and expansion and generate most of their cash and earnings years down the road. Future cash decreases in today's dollars as rates increase partly because investors have more opportunities to earn bigger returns from assets paying higher interest and dividends right now. While higher yields are generally seen as a bet on a strengthening economic environment, it does make it more expensive to borrow capital, which weighs heavily on growth stocks, which are valued heavily based on future earnings projections.

    Timothy Chubb, Chief Investment Officer at advisory firm Girard, said "Yesterday's selloff was really largely driven by rate movement. It wasn't necessarily the size of the rate movement, but the speed that it took place." The yield gained more than 16 basis points from its low last Friday to yesterday's peak.

    Congress members continue to race in order to pass legislation to fund the government until next year and prevent the government from defaulting and shutting down, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warning the US must raise the debt limit by October 18 in order to avoid a default. This comes amid a backdrop of ongoing debates surrounding the bipartisan $1 trillion infrastructure deal. Last night, Republicans refused to pass a bill to avert a government shutdown and raise or suspend the debt limit to prevent the US from defaulting on its debts. Unfortunately, something that is fairly routine (the debt ceiling has been raised 80 times since 1960 and three times under President Trump, with the latest suspension in 2019) has become a headline with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell stating that he would not provide the Republican votes necessary.

    https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-congress-government-funding-e7bfe8a6ffdb40a8d33e17ef11ded7a7

    Jason Grumet, Bipartisan Policy Center President, said "It is really important that we separate the shutdown, which is terrible, from the debt limit, which is catastrophic. There could be, I think, a very short shutdown of the government Friday night going into Saturday, Sunday. And I think that you would then see a short continuing resolution to get the government running again. The government shutdown really isn't the problem we're grappling with. The problem we're grappling with really is the debt ceiling. Democrats tried to join them together. That did not make the sale for Republicans. Some Democrats have a different approach to the debt ceiling. But I am not particularly concerned about a government shutdown."

    Penduing home sales have greatly exceed expectations in August, rebounding spectacularly from the July dip to jump to the highest level in seven-months. Pending home sales rose 8.1% in August month-on-month, according to the National Association of Realtors. This exceeded estimates for a 1.4% monthly rise, based on Bloomberg consensus data. In July, pending home sales fell by 2.0%. Pending home sales are -6.3% down compared to last year.

    Lawrence Yun, the NAR's Chief Economist, said "Rising inventory and moderating price conditions are bringing buyers back to the market. Affordability, however, remains challenging as home prices are roughly three times wage growth.

    Highlights

    • Google announced it was updating the look and format of its product search page to more resemble a digital store rather than a long list of links and texts.
    • Netflix (NFLX) bought video game developer Night School Studios and rolled out five mobile gaming titles in select European markets yesterday, another push by the company into gaming.
    • The German state of Brandenburg said on Wednesday no decision has been taken on Tesla's request to build a factory near Berlin, following a media report that regulators had agreed on the terms of a conditional approval.
    • Lucid (LCID) said it plans to start delivering it's luxury electric sedans with the highest range in the market in late October. The company says it plans to ramp up production to 90,000 vehicles per year over the next two years.
    • Amazon (AMZN) is releasing a household robot called Astro that is designed to roll around inside the home to take up tasks such as monitoring, reminders, setting up routines, and can play music and TV while rolling. It's super expensive at $999 and I really don't see a use for it myself, but still pretty cool.
    • **Please note that current stock price was written during the session and may not reflect closing prices*\*
    • Comcast (CMCSA) target raised by Pivotal Research from $72 to $75 at Buy
    • Chipotle (CMG) target raised by Evercore from $1950 to $2200 at Outperform. Stock currently around $1850
    • Enbridge (ENB) target raised by Wells Fargo from $53 to $56 at Overweight. Stock currently around $40
    • NetApp (NTAP) target raised by JP Morgan from $95 to $108 at Neutral. Stock currently around $90

    "In my view, the biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital. Not only is the mere drop in stock prices not risk, but it is an opportunity. Where else do you look for cheap stocks?" - Li Lu

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
    [link] [comments]

    Should you invest in the most reputable brands in the world? - Benchmarking performance of the worlds most reputable brands against S&P500

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 03:42 AM PDT

    Coke is just soda.

    Levi's are just jeans.

    The iPhone is just a phone.

    Yet, we go out of our ways to select certain brands over others - most of the time at a higher price [1]. Everyone knows the importance of reputation for a company. Highly reputable brands have multiple things going for them:

    • Their customers are extremely loyal and drive recurring purchases
    • The public is vocal about recommending their brand and products
    • Easier to expand to other markets as their reputation precedes them

    Basically, you can consider having a great reputation to be a positive feedback loop on steroids! In an economy where 70-80% of the market value of a company comes from intangible assets like brand equity, intellectual capital, and goodwill [2], reputations can make or break a company's performance.

    In one of my previous analyses, we had discovered and proved that the best companies to work for routinely beat the market in stock returns. So this week, let's see how the most reputed brands have performed over the last decade!


    Data

    While there are multiple companies that measure reputation, I chose the RepTrack list for my analysis as they seem to be the most established ones and have been creating their top 100 list for the last 2 decades.

    They base their study on more than 240K responders over 15+ countries and the rating tells us how the companies are regarded by the general public. They have multiple factors that go into the final ranking, but for this analysis, I am only considering the final rank of the company.

    I am considering the companies that were present in the Top 10 list at least once in the last decade [2012 - 2021]


    Analysis

    RepTrack publishes their result in March, every year. Since I could not find any fixed date of publication, for the purpose of the stock price calculation, I am using April 1st of every year as my investment date.

    Even though the company produces a Top 100 list, I have limited my analysis to the Top 10 companies [3]. We then calculate the stock returns generated by these companies [4] over various time periods (1-year, 3-years, 5-years & till date) and then compare it to our benchmark. [5]


    Results

    Return Comparison - SPY vs Top 10 - Most Reputable Brands

    Time Period Most Reputable Brand (Avg Return) SPY (Avg Return) Alpha
    1 Year 17.1% 16.2% 0.9%
    3 Years 44.8% 41.2% 3.6%
    5 Years 94.1% 77.9% 16.2%
    Till Date 188.3% 136.4% 51.9%

    Companies in the most reputable list have consistently beaten SPY over different time periods. There is a significant improvement in overall return when holding the investment for a longer-term.

    My hypothesis here is that, even though the short-term returns can be affected by market cycles, over the long run, companies having a great reputation end up outperforming their peers, and this is reflected in their stock price.

    Another interesting insight we can derive from the data is the performance of the top-10 companies in each year's list. As we can see, the most reputable brands beat SPY by a considerable margin in 7/10 years [6].


    Limitations to the Analysis

    There are some limitations to the above analysis that you should be aware of before trying to replicate the strategy.

    • Ideally, the backtest should be done over 30-40 year's worth of data as we would know how the changing trends would impact the analysis. The last decade or so was predominantly biased towards tech.
    • One should also benchmark this against the companies having an average or poor reputation to see if reputation is indeed a distinguishing factor that is driving the returns. [7]
    • Finally, reputation is just one factor related to the company. There are companies whose reputations are in the gutter but have produced extraordinary returns for their shareholders (Facebook gave 175% return & Volkswagen gave 117% return in the last 5 years even after all the scandals they have been through). ___ Conclusion

    Whether you like it or not, brands seem to have a significant impact on our daily lives. Just think about the number of times you/your friend have sworn by a brand and recommended it to everyone [8]. Almost all the brands in the top 10 list (eg. Rolex, Ferrari, Adidas, Harley-Davidson) have users that are extremely loyal, willing to pay a premium, and acts as unofficial spokespersons for the company.

    Our analysis, in turn, proves that all these positive factors cause the company to outperform the market! So now you know what to do next time when your friend is swearing by a brand.

    Until next week…

    Google Sheet containing all the data used for analysis: Here


    Footnotes and Existing Research

    [1] This great video by Big Think showcases how Apple and Nike have spent billions of dollars for creating a positive brand image in our brains and most of us, in the end, are not rational customers.

    [2] Reputation and Its Risks - Harvard Business Review

    [3] The main reason for stopping with the Top 10 is the manual data pull process. They do not give a stock ticker associated with the stock nor is the list easily parsable. Given we are pulling data for 10 years, I limited myself to the top 10 companies.

    [4] A stock is only considered if it's directly investable from the US market and is an independent company (Examples of companies ignored - Rolex, LEGO Group, and Bosch)

    [5] Before you come at me with Pitchforks for using S&P 500 instead of Nasdaq Composite, please take a look at the list of companies. It's from a wide variety of industries. Adding to this, even though tech provided the majority of returns, starting in 2012, you would not have any idea about the tech run we would be having over the next decade.

    [6] I don't think 2020 and 2021 should be counted here due to two reasons. First, it's not enough time as we can see from the first graph (there is very little difference in performance over 1 year period), and secondly, 2020 was one of the largest bull runs in the history of SPY.

    [7] This report by RepTrack shows the impact the Emission Scandal had on Volkswagen

    [8] Micheal Platt, Professor of Neuroscience at Yale did a study that showcased that Apple users show brain empathy response to the Apple brand exactly the same way they would to a family member. Strangely, Samsung users did not have any positive or negative responses when good or bad news was released about the brand

    submitted by /u/nobjos
    [link] [comments]

    Selling calls or puts that will not hit to make 100% gain

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 07:15 AM PDT

    Dear Reddit,

    I'm not a new investor. When it comes to options though I'm a huge noob. There is this one thought that passes by in my head frequently but I must be missing something. Because it sounds like free money. But I obviously know there is no such thing.

    What is the risk of me selling a put on Amazon expiring in 3 months with a strike price of $1000. If Amazon doesn't drop by 66% in those 3 months the sold put drops by 100% of the price because it expires worhtless. What am I missing here. Why aren't people doing these kind of trades frequently.

    Thanks

    submitted by /u/DanielzeFourth
    [link] [comments]

    ASML Dropping?

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 08:06 AM PDT

    I noticed rather large drop in ASML stock. I usually don't follow short term price movement, but the change is rather sudden.

    Is there any news to go with this? The only article I find seem to be the company raising expected growth (11% yoy for the next 10 years), along with expected ~50% margins.

    Is this bad news somehow? Was more growth expected?

    submitted by /u/thatslife4669
    [link] [comments]

    My China Bear Case (More than just Evergrande)

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 07:23 AM PDT

    A lot of people are buying or contemplating on buying the dip on China. I wanted people to get more insight on what's going on in China so they understand their risks more before making a decision. I have my own biases against the CCP so take what I say into a grain of salt - I am welcoming of differing opinions and please call out any misinformation I may have posted.

    I know the topic of Evergrande has been beaten to death, and how damaging a real estate pop in China would be. And I'm not dismissing it, this itself is a large enough issue to bring an economic downturn in proportion to 2008 or a 1980s Japan in China without government intervention. With how much the GDP of construction is to China, and how much the typical investor in China invests in real estate , it's no mystery that a real estate pop would wreck havoc on the country. However, that is just one of many issues I want to highlight so people can be more informed about buying the dip, and understanding the risks. Many of the issues I note will also have an compounding effect on the real estate market in the big picture.

    1. The Mass Exodus of Foreign Manufacturing
      I'll include a list below of foreign companies pulling their manufacturing out of China (not fully inclusive). Some are pulling out in much greater extent than others, like for example a lot of Korean and Japanese companies (panasonic, samsung, toshiba, etc) are almost completely gone. This exodus is creating MASSIVE unemployment rates in China. China of course is hiding these figures through the use of "flexible employment" aka people setting up street stalls selling toys is considered employment. Not to mention if you go down the supply chain (local manufacturer of smaller parts, entire towns of people who were employed by these companies - think restaurants, barber shops, local shops etc) there are a lot more people that are going to be effected by this exodus. I've read some estimates showing that the true unemployment rate of China is closer to 25% - which is absolutely insane.
      Reasons why they are leaving:
      -China is losing its low cost manufacturing edge very rapidly to countries in South Asia and in Latin America.
      -The pandemic has made companies realize having their supply chain so dependent on one country is disadvantageous.
      -The business and political climate in China has become unstable (an understatement) - I'll go into more detail later on.
      Some big name companies leaving:
      Nike, Samsung, Apple, Microsoft, Panasonic, Kia, Toshiba, Adidas, Puma, Google, Intel, Sony, LG, Hyundai, Dell, HP, and a lot more I probably haven't even researched.
    2. China's business and political climate
      The CCP are pushing increasingly nationalist, isolationist, and controlling policies. You've seen the news articles on the CCP banning boy band groups, the houston rockets ordeal, hongkong, spreading negative propaganda on foreign companies, billionares gone missing, the hitler-esque Xi jing ping ceremony, xin jiang, south china sea aggression, the increased regulation on IPOs, excessive and targeted fines of large corporations, propaganda in primary schools, the censorships of literally everything, the list goes on. Most of us are aware of how bad it can be, but it is getting WORSE. They are even starting to go as far as limiting travel visas/passports unless there are special circumstances. This political climate is not stable, and you didn't have to go to business school to know why this has had and will continue to have impacts on the economy and future investment.
    3. Social Climate
      1. Aging Population
        1. Another issue related to this is China's severely underfunded pension system. You can argue that it's like the US SS system, and that they can just print more money - but I think that works better for the US than it will for China.
      2. Lying Flat Movement
        1. Young people are pissed, underemployed, and too afraid to directly stand up to the CCP (understandably so). China's youth are rebelling by doing nothing, and honestly I don't blame them. For most of China's population factories are the only option for employment and they are worked like dogs. Although movements like these tend to be fads that fade away, I think its emblematic of larger societal issues.
      3. A cultural environment that is not conducive to creativity and innovation. China has had all this time during this rapid growth to build a niche, but they haven't - only poor quality discounted versions of established companies. When Japan, Korea, and Taiwan were going through this industrialization phase, they all came out with a sector they excelled in (think Toyota, Samsung, KIA, TSM, ETC). China has not come out as a leader of anything outside of manufacturing (which as described earlier is dying).
    4. My doomsday scenario:
      1. The largest bear case and hopefully unimaginable scenario is this: The CCP uses the instability as a power grab, uses propaganda to direct blame outwards, and invades Taiwan. This is something I hope never happens, but if this does, your stocks are not the only thing I'd worry about.
    5. Overall Conclusion
      1. I honestly just don't see where the long term growth or investment opportunities are in China with manufacturing slowing down, crazy unemployment, and no real competitive edge or niche market China has built. In addition the political and social climate it currently is in is not conducive to growth. Growth is everything in today's stock market and for the past couple of decades China has been synonymous with growth. Has the steam run out? I think this situation has similarities to Japan in the 80s, but the potential to be way worse. I think there are just much better places to put your money right now than chinese stocks. I would keep an eye out on South Asia, and seeing what public companies have the potential to really benefit from the exodus of manufacturing.
    submitted by /u/FoodEater123
    [link] [comments]

    can employee of a company receive shares of a company from someone outside?

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 01:36 PM PDT

    Is it legal for employee of company X to receive shares of the company as a gift / donation from someone outside the company? Can they receive shares anytime in the year? Does this vary per company?

    Would be insightful to learn if there are any rules for or against this

    submitted by /u/lilsuperhippo
    [link] [comments]

    Babcock - Great British Defence Recovery stock

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 09:57 AM PDT

    Yet another reason why Babcock International is greatly undervalued, Cavendish Nuclear it's wholly owned subsidiary just construction an Advanced Nuclear Reactor demonstrator. https://www.u-battery.com/news/articles/u-battery-full-scale-vessel-mock-up-demonstrates-efficiencies-of-advanced-nuclear-technology

    submitted by /u/Intelligent_Put_3973
    [link] [comments]

    At what price will AMD see support? Reasonable entry price?

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 12:21 PM PDT

    Im currently holding 40 shares at cost basis of 75. I sold off of 20 shares around 118. It briefly dipped under 100 today. I want to get some opinions on what you guys think will be the level of support and what would be a reasonable entry price?

    submitted by /u/randomaccount0923
    [link] [comments]

    $TAK or $NVO BO of $MIRM?

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 10:15 AM PDT

    $MIRM 's drug LIVMARLI (maralixibat) just got FDA approvel todayLink. They will be having a investor conference at 4:30 today.

    Both $TAK and $NVO have quite a bit of shares of $MIRM. Which one do you guys think would make a BO offer? Or would they do a split acquisition? Link

    submitted by /u/stillness0072
    [link] [comments]

    PLTR has won a 2 year contract, worth 58 mil. dollars, with the National Institutes of Health

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 01:47 PM PDT

    Here is the link: https://www.fpds.gov/ezsearch/search.do?q=Palantir&s=FPDS.GOV&templateName=1.5.2&indexName=awardfull&sortBy=SIGNED_DATE&desc=Y Click "view" on the first contract to learn more about the deal. Total value is 58 million.

    After winning contracts with a total deal value over 900 mil.usd last quarter, it seems that PLTR is again doing great, at least in the government segment. As you can see in the link that I have provided, since September 23rd a total of 11 new deals were completed. (new contracts, plus options that were exercised). It also looks like that they are not only forming new partnerships, but they are also strengthening their relationship with agencies that are already clients. For example, they have worked with the NHI since 2018, created a specialised platform for managing the vaccine distribution in 2020 for them and now their collaboration continues with this new contract. I am an investor in PLTR and I think that one of the most bullish indicators is the fact that their software "sticks like glue". They have very high-customer retention rates and that is not only beneficial for the company in the financial aspect, but also shows the quality of their services

    submitted by /u/prettyboyv
    [link] [comments]

    Market fluctuates but fed/house/senate will not let the market crash

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 01:26 PM PDT

    The market has been down quite a bit in September especially for the growth stocks. Like other idiots who are heavily invested in these stocks, I am also deep in RED. It may take a long long time before we really recover our initial investment into this sector. Most of these stocks (name it DKNG, SQ, Roku, NIO, Tesla, many many more), are 10-30 down compared with February 2021. The inflation, rate hike, treasury yield, all have one way or another affected these stocks. I am confident that the bear market for these stocks will be over soon or later so still holding. I have shifted some of my investment into SPY and QQQ and anytime one of my growth stocks gets to a point that I can sell with a small gain then will do so. However, seeing posts that the market is going to crash seems ridiculous. Many of the politicians (fed, house, and senate) have invested millions of dollars into the stock market so if they need to print money in an hourly basis, will do so to save the market if EVER EVER such thing is going to happen. There is probably less than 1% chance that the market may tank 20-30% in case something like COVID happens but we saw how quickly the market recovered. I was going to invest some into SPY options in June and thought let's wait for a downturn then invest my money and the market just went up and up until mid-September so even with the current downturn, I would have still been GREEN if had invested just in June.

    submitted by /u/MangoExternal
    [link] [comments]

    I just found this interesting bit of news. Hope it helps!

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 02:50 AM PDT

    A supply shock is about to hit the housing market—the question is how big?

    Homeowners should've gotten more help back in 2008. At least that's become the consensus among economists in the decade since the financial crash and subsequent foreclosure crisis. It's also why Democratic and Republican lawmakers alike came together to protect struggling homeowners by creating a COVID hardship forbearance program, which allowed mortgage borrowers to pause their payments, in March 2020. But on Sept. 30 the expanded mortgage forbearance program will finally begin its wind down—something that will have far-reaching effects on the broader economy and the housing market. There's never been a forbearance wind down like this, making the consequences all the more uncertain.

    At its height, the program protected 7.2 million homeowners. As the economy improved—with the unemployment rate falling from nearly 15% in April 2020 to 5.2% as of Aug. 2021—the number of borrowers in the program dropped, too. Now, there are just 1.5 million borrowers protected by the program. While some of these borrowers will be ready to resume their mortgage payments, others won't. In fact, the real estate industry is already preparing for a supply shock: Hundreds of thousands of these currently protected homes could soon be put on the market. Just don't expect that supply shock to come via foreclosures. Almost all of these borrowers have positive equity in their homes. So instead of foreclosing like the underwater 2008 homeowners, most can simply list their homes for sale. The ongoing strong COVID-19 housing market means these sellers might only have to wait days—or hours—before finding a buyer.

    At first glance, 1.5 million homes might not sound like a lot—considering we're a nation of 80 million homeowners. However, at the most recent count, there are only 1.3 million homes for sale, according to the National Association of Realtors. So if even a fraction of those homes currently in forbearance opt to list, it'd create something of a supply shock in the market. "A flood of new inventory, that's going to change conditions in the [housing] market," Chris Glynn, an economist at Zillow, told Fortune. "It's taking the foot off the pedal a bit."

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/supply-shock-hit-housing-market-193000950.html

    submitted by /u/nickytotherescue
    [link] [comments]

    Non-tech ETF help.

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 10:03 AM PDT

    I am still a pretty new investor (since May this year). I currently hold VUAG which is a pretty simple S&P ETF but it is quite heavily weighted in tech. I also hold individual positons with MSFT and GOOGL so I'm looking to put a decent chunk of money into a solid ETF that is available in the UK ( in some form) and is tech free, ideally that pays a dividend.

    Any suggestions or input would be great .

    submitted by /u/landtherest
    [link] [comments]

    I have $60k in CD funds. Should I withdraw early to put it into an ETF?

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 11:34 AM PDT

    I have 50% of my funds in CD funds. The other 50% is in ETFs. I feel like my CD funds barely give me any in returns compared to stocks like QQQ, SPY, MSCI.

    I literally did the math, and if I would've invested my cash in stocks rather than a cd fund, I'd have gained an extra $9k by now.

    I want to early withdraw my funds from my CD fund right now so I can put it in SPY, QQQ, and MSCI. The only thing is that I was initially worried the stock market would crash (which is why I initially put it in CD funds) but it just keeps going up. I want to play it semi-safe but also get more in returns. I am comfortable with mild risk seeing that I'm in my mid 20s. I plan on buying a house hopefully in 1-2 years.

    Any thoughts on what I should do?

    submitted by /u/fine_shrines
    [link] [comments]

    Secret projects Apple is working on over the next 10 years:

    Posted: 28 Sep 2021 07:17 PM PDT

    This is somewhat of a response to another post I saw on this subreddit saying Apple needs radical innovation to grow, and while I think that's not true and that Apple is a great company regardless of any future projects, I went ahead and did some digging and found a couple new projects Apple has in the works.

    ——————

    First off Apple has an insane RnD budget. They invested close to $19 BILLION dollars into research and development last year, and will only to continue investing more as we've seen in the years prior.

    Firstly, I think it's important to note that Apple won't have the first product in any of these markets, and that's a GOOD thing. When you look back at their history, it doesn't matter if they're the first. They've never been concerned with rushing products to the market. Their focus, and greatest strength as a company, is in having the best product, which oftentimes is simply a more refined and seamless experience achieved through years of research and fine-tuning.

    Take for example, the AirPods. There were plenty of wireless earbuds before AirPods, but for Apple it didn't matter. They went into a product category that already existed, and, like they've always done, created a more seamless, unified, and beautiful design, and ultimately ran away with the lead; In 2020 Apple's AirPods alone brought in around $23 billion, which was nearly as much as Netflix's overall revenue ($25 billion), and twice as much as AMD and Spotify's revenue.

    I see this same type of thing that happened with the iPod, iPhone, and AirPods either happening within the space of virtual reality, electric vehicles, healthcare, a combination of these two, or all three.

    Augmented and Virtual Reality: A good chunk of that RnD budget is said to be going towards Apple Glasses and AR/VR headsets. This article suggests Apple is working an advanced headset that has augmented and virtual reality; with 16 high-quality optical cameras, advanced computational ability, and iris recognition which may be able to identify who you are, specifically, just by looking at your iris. There is nothing like this on the market right now, and paired with Apple's ability to come out with more seamless and refined products than what's currently on the market at the time, they could very well create something worthy enough of controlling the market share.

    Aside from Virtual Reality headsets, there are other 'secret projects' that this huge RnD budget can pay for.

    The Apple Car: We know it exists. Mainly because in this interview with Elon Musk, Elon laughed at the reporter's question of if Apple's even taking the Apple Car seriously. He laughed because, as he said in the interview, it's an open-secret, and in fact it's very difficult to hide the over 1,000 engineers Apple hired to work on this project. Especially since he's in direct competition with Apple to hire electric car engineers and experts to come work at Tesla.

    Healthcare: Probably the biggest thing Apple is working on. The CEO of Apple, Tim Cook has repeatedly stated that he want's Apple biggest contribution to mankind to be through healthcare. In this piece from the Wall Street Journal, it's revealed how much Apple has really envisioned for its future in healthcare. They've said they want to offer health-monitoring subscription-based services through products like the Apple Watch, which there seems to be a lot of demand for right now, and they also want to offer their own primary care services with Apple employed doctors at its own clinics. However the WSJ goes through how difficult the latter part has been for Apple to get this off the ground, saying healthcare is an extremely difficult field to try to do improvements and innovations in. Haven, the joint-venture formed by Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, and JPMorgan tried disrupting healthcare in the same way Apple wants to, but they disbanded after 3 years.

    Nonetheless, any one of these 'secret projects' Apple has cooking up in the background could be a massive catalyst for Apple's growth. Whether it be creating the Apple Glasses or a VR headset, an Apple Car that rivals Tesla, or building hospitals and expanding into healthcare subscription services. But even then, I still hold Apple with the assumption that NONE of these products will be successful. They are a great company with one of the strongest balance sheets in the world, with sales that continue to outpace other leading tech companies year-over-year, despite the same story for the last 15 years being that its simply gotten too big to grow anymore. They're building up more and more sticky, subscription-based revenue that despite being only around 20% of their yearly revenue, is equal to that of the entire annual revenue of companies like McDonald's and NVIDIA and it continues to steadily grow year-after-year. And they have an ecosystem of devices that will continue to get bigger, keeping customers locked in and making Apple's competitors have to work with them, not against them.

    In the case of Apple its not the first product that wins, it's the superior product that wins, and Apple has been very good at coming out with that superior product. So while some people think Apple's fully saturated the market or that they have no room left to grow, I think they're an already growing company with many opportunities to supplement that growth in the future.

    submitted by /u/NubChumpster
    [link] [comments]

    Airline Stock LEAPS

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 01:35 PM PDT

    Has anyone here bought leaps for airline stocks? With investors starting to revert to bonds and traditional stocks, do you think it is a good investment?

    What value transportation or infrastructure dependent stocks are you investing in?

    submitted by /u/Weflysohighballinnnn
    [link] [comments]

    Why is BGFV being shorted?

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 05:57 AM PDT

    Can someone help me understand why BGFV is being shorted to almost 50% of its float?

    It's a profitable company with a 550m market cap, 100m cash, no debt. It has been growing rapidly in the last year with increases in sales and earnings.

    It does not seem like the type of company you'd want to short. Any thoughts? At the current rate of growth, all short positions will be losing money relatively soon.

    submitted by /u/Eredasi
    [link] [comments]

    No comments:

    Post a Comment