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    Thursday, September 30, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Sep 30, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Sep 30, 2021


    r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Sep 30, 2021

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 02:30 AM PDT

    This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on stock options, but if options aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against options here and not in the current post.

    Some helpful day to day links, including news:


    Required info to start understanding options:

    • Call option Investopedia video basically a call option allows you to buy 100 shares of a stock at a certain price (strike price), but without the obligation to buy
    • Put option Investopedia video a put option allows you to sell 100 shares of a stock at a certain price (strike price), but without the obligation to sell

    See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

    Call option - Put option - Exercising an option - Strike price - ITM - OTM - ATM - Long options - Short options - Combo - Debit - Credit or Premium - Covered call - Naked - Debit call spread - Credit call spread - Strangle - Iron condor - Vertical debit spreads - Iron Fly

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is delta," then google "investopedia delta" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Reverse Repo hits staggering 1.6T, breaking records daily

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 10:49 AM PDT

    The daily reverse repo hit 1T about two months ago or so, and since then it has continued to go up and up and up. It's surpassed 1.5T and looks like it's on the way to 2T. For some context, starting this week, the repo amounts are:

    09/27 - 1.29T

    09/28 - 1.37T

    09/29 - 1.41T

    09/30 - 1.6T

    What is going on here?! Does this mean more and more money is being pooled on the sidelines waiting for the market to crash and buy up on the cheap?

    submitted by /u/nams0
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    U.S. economy grew revised 6.7% in second quarter, GDP shows

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 06:26 AM PDT

    The U.S. economy grew at a 6.7% annual pace in the second quarter, revised government figures show, as the U.S. got a big jolt in the spring from government stimulus payments and coronavirus vaccines allowed businesses to reopen. The government's third estimate of gross domestic product for the quarter was largely in line with its prior analysis. The rise in consumer spending was slightly faster at 12% and exports were revised to show a 7.6% increase instead of 6.6%.

    Previously the government reported second-quarter GDP rose at a 6.6% clip.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-economy-grew-revised-6-7-in-second-quarter-gdp-shows-11633007236?mod=home-page

    submitted by /u/mikeyrocksin2021
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    What are the implications of Evergrand missing its second offshore bond payment?

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 07:22 AM PDT

    which canbe the implications of evergrande missing second off shore payment? Won't this cause a domino effect since they have a 20 billions debt with foreign investors?With liabilities of $305 billion, Evergrande has sparked concerns its woes could spread through China's financial system and reverberate around the world - a worry that has eased with the Chinese central bank vowing to protect homebuyer interest.. but what's gonna happen if foreign investors are not paid?

    submitted by /u/luchins
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    Psycho Market Recap - Thursday Sept 30

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 01:06 PM PDT

    Stocks finished lower in a whipsaw session that saw equities plummet near the middle of the session before somewhat recovering and then selling off to close the end of the day. Market participants continue to anxiously wait for any developments out of Washington DC and monitor the Treasury yield. The S&P 500 (SPY) is set to record it's first negative month all year. September, on average, is historically the worst month for equities.

    Recently, technology stocks have been under pressure given the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has spiked to the hover around the highest levels since June. Rising Treasury yields hurt high-growth stocks, like technology, the most because these companies require a lot of capital to fund their growth and expansion and generate most of their cash and earnings years down the road. Future cash decreases in today's dollars as rates increase partly because investors have more opportunities to earn bigger returns from assets paying higher interest and dividends right now. While higher yields are generally seen as a bet on a strengthening economic environment, it does make it more expensive to borrow capital, which weighs heavily on growth stocks, which are valued heavily based on future earnings projections. As of writing, the yield is 1.52%

    Timothy Chubb, Chief Investment Officer at advisory firm Girard, said "Yesterday's selloff was really largely driven by rate movement. It wasn't necessarily the size of the rate movement, but the speed that it took place." The yield gained more than 16 basis points from its low last Friday to Monday's peak of 1.56%.

    Paul Schatz, President of Heritage Capital, said "This [the recent dip] feels a lot worse than it actually is because we haven't had much volatility since last October, last September. But remember, all the reasons why we're going down — nothing is new. You've got the debt ceiling and the government shutdown and Evergrande and inflation. All known things. None of these are going to befall the bull market or cause a recession. There's always some kind of short-term thing the market focuses on to get a pullback going. We've got it. I think it's one you buy with both hands in the next week or so, and I think we're going strongly to new highs in Q4."

    Congressional lawmakers continue to race in order to pass legislation to fund the government until next year and prevent a shutdown and raise the debt ceiling in order to save the US government from defaulting on its debts. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that Congress must raise the debt limit by October 18 in order to avoid a default. This comes amid a backdrop of ongoing debates surrounding the bipartisan $1 trillion infrastructure deal. Last night, Republicans refused to pass a bill to avert a government shutdown and raise or suspend the debt limit to prevent the US from defaulting on its debts. Unfortunately, something that is fairly routine (the debt ceiling has been raised 80 times since 1960 and three times under President Trump, with the latest suspension in 2019) has become a headline with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell stating that he would not provide the Republican votes necessary. This is a situation to monitor today.

    https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-congress-government-funding-e7bfe8a6ffdb40a8d33e17ef11ded7a7

    Jason Grumet, Bipartisan Policy Center President, said "It is really important that we separate the shutdown, which is terrible, from the debt limit, which is catastrophic. There could be, I think, a very short shutdown of the government Friday night going into Saturday, Sunday. And I think that you would then see a short continuing resolution to get the government running again. The government shutdown really isn't the problem we're grappling with. The problem we're grappling with really is the debt ceiling. Democrats tried to join them together. That did not make the sale for Republicans. Some Democrats have a different approach to the debt ceiling. But I am not particularly concerned about a government shutdown."

    The Weekly Unemployment Report showed an unexpected rise in first-time jobless claims last week, even as companies across industries look to hire workers to make up for labor shortfalls and the first rise in jobless claims in months. Here are the numbers

    • Initial unemployment claims: 362,000 vs. 330,000 expected, and an unrevised 351,000 during prior week

    Continuing claims: 2.802 million vs. 2.790 million expected, and a revised 2.820 million during prior week

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
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    Remember what investing is all about

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 01:56 AM PDT

    Good day fellow investors (many will probably recognize this phrase!),

    Because I've stumbled across several posts in this subreddit worrying about all the macroeconomic noise and distractions going on right now, I just wanted to quickly remind you all what true investing - not trading - is all about.

    Investors are in for the long game. Being an investor, you most likely picked high-quality businesses that you are proud to be an owner of, and which will most likely transcend the economy because of their convincing quality, management, moat, growth etc. It's all about creating wealth even for generations to come over many years, and this is what great businesses will always help you to accomplish.

    In this regard, don't worry when your portfolio takes a few nose dives every now and then. Even if the next stock market crash is going to be tomorrow at 3PM EST (sounds about right, doesn't it?) and you lose 50% of your hard-earned money, see this as a major opportunity to load up even more on businesses you love and are proud to own. Keep calm and do not sell anything at the worst times, which undoubtedly is during these short-term drawbacks.

    TDLR: Take a deep breath, don't overreact (I mean just look at SPY, it's almost as high as ever right now), trust in the businesses you own, and see even major pullbacks as life-changing opportunities to buy more shares.

    submitted by /u/fabi9922
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    Here's Your Daily Market Brief For September 30th

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 05:51 AM PDT

    Top News

    • S&P 500 Futures are +.41%; Dow Futures are +.38%; NASDAQ Futures are +.53%
    • US stock futures move slightly higher after the Senate agreed on a deal to avoid a government shutdown. Initial jobless claims rose higher than expected indicating that, despite a recovering economy, US hiring remains sluggish. Initial jobless claims 362k vs 335k expected.
    • The Senate agreed on a deal to avoid a government shutdown, which would fund the government until December 3rd, in addition to providing money for hurricane relief and Afghan refugee resettlement. However, the deal doesn't include the Democrat's request to suspend the debt ceiling, which is still required to prevent the government from defaulting. Note: There have been discussions to produce a $1T platinum coin to help cover some of Washington's bills to avoid the debt ceiling
    • UK's spot power prices rose to the highest level on record, leading to 3 more power suppliers to shut down, impacting 233k households. On the other hand, China may increase power prices for industrial consumers to alleviate supply concerns. Note: Power shortages in China could lead to higher prices for goods throughout the world because Chinese factories may need to reduce output due to rising costs
    • The US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England all voiced that inflation rates, around the world, are temporary and are due to supply chain disruptions. Note: There are signs, from Citigroups' survey and the behavior of European bond investors, that people are preparing for a long inflation period

    Price Target Updates

    • Wells Fargo lifted the price target on The Home Depot, Inc. HD from $360 to $365
    • Raymond James lifted the price target for Jabil Inc. JBL from $66 to $70
    • UBS boosted FactSet Research Systems Inc. FDS price target from $303 to $415

    In Other News

    • G7 countries' transport and health ministers are meeting today to talk about how to restart international travel
    • Elon Musk criticizes President Biden's EV policy saying that the US government should not regulate cryptocurrency
    • Facebook's head of global safety will testify to the Senate Commerce Committee about Instagram's effect on young users
    submitted by /u/hivincentc
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    Now is a great time to buy dividend stocks

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 05:33 AM PDT

    Title basically sums it up. Honestly feel like now is a great time to buy dividend stocks. They tend to be more stable, many have raised their dividend amount every year, and right now some are on discount (Target, looking at you!!). So basically good for both diversification/portfolio stability and guaranteed payout perspectives.

    submitted by /u/plainbread11
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    Modern problems with today’s investors

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 01:46 PM PDT

    The problem with today's investors are:

    1. Overnight millionaire expectations

    2. Day traders

    3. Poor DD

    4. Get fear whenever you experience a red day/week.

    A proper Investment means, your money is locked technically for at least 3-5yrs.. imagine if you didn't have the visibility to either touch or view your investment and only had access to it after 5yrs. Even if you decide to hold it for the short term and sell at a relatively small profit you will end up paying short gains taxes (US specific).

    I get everyone has different investing strategies. However, if you invest in a company it should be because you believe it will grow and be successful in the near future. The best course of action here is to look at the company's finances i.e. will this company survive for 5 quarters more without doing a share dilution? , is their revenue growing or expected to grow in the near future? cashflow? etc. In addition, you should research their management as it arranges the factors of production, assembles and organizes the resources, integrates the resources in an effective manner to achieve goals, etc.

    There are other business-related questions that you should research i.e will their market share increase, will their customer base increase by expanding its product/service range, expanding their operations or is there an expectation for the demand of their product/service to increase in the future? etc. These questions are just a few of many that you should ask yourself before investing in one company.

    Eye strain- This one is very important. Please stop looking at the charts or your brokerage account 24/7 because it's simply a waste of time. This is also dangerous for you as when there is a drop in price it encourages you to sell reacting to market conditions. Set a stop-loss order if you are too worried the share price will fall below your average price. (Unless you're a day trader)

    Taking advice from random people- I've been in this and other stock specific subs for years and always read comments from newbies asking and even taking advice from others. Sometimes their advice might be right; however sometimes they aren't. The chances of them having a bad experience and losing money with the stock you are discussing is high. Be aware and do your research. I have seen too many cases of people taking advice from others and losing large amounts of money in the sub we aren't supposed to talk about that starts with an W.

    Bad Timing- Stop going all-in whenever a company announces a new catalyst (event) or has great news because by the time the market opens the news will be already priced in, just for it to fall down in the afternoon because it's overvalued. This is how hedge funds take advantage of you.

    Finally and most importantly, never ever buy stocks on margin, you will end up in a massive pile of debt increasing in interest every day that you won't be able to ever repay..

    There is a reason banks & brokerages lend you money, use only what you can afford..

    Thanks for reading. Enjoy investing!

    Image for Reddit post: https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/fit-in/1200x0/filters%3Aformat%28jpg%29/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fimageserve%2F1203425526%2F0x0.jpg

    submitted by /u/InvestorLegend
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    It looks like a gov shutdown is a real possibility:

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 02:57 PM PDT

    McConnell stopping democrats latest attempts to raise the debt ceiling again means the democrats would have to go through reconciliation which is a long and difficult process. I do not believe their is any other way they can move forward. If anyone knows a alternative route u believe the democrats might go please share it here because this will definitely have a big impact on the market in the coming weeks however this plays out.......

    submitted by /u/7LyLa
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    Is buying Dividend stocks at a young age bad

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 07:14 AM PDT

    Hey guys I'm 20 and somewhat new to investing and only started very lately. So I've always loved the idea of stocks paying money to their shareholders which are dividends but most retail investors say to focus on non dividend paying stocks as I'm still young and have time on my side and go specifically for dividend stocks when I'm old. Is there a logical reason or explanation behind this?

    All points and explanations are appreciated. I'll be awaiting answers please.

    Edit: Thanks for the suggestions and answers everyone. You all are the best. Best of luck with your tradings and investments and may the force be with you all

    submitted by /u/h8nry_
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    Berkshire, XOM, CVX, and the coming oil super cycle.

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 09:08 AM PDT

    I know Buffett bought CVX on his last report, and have been hearing rumors he's buying XOM, and adding to his CVX shares. I know Buffett likes to buy wholes sectors, like when he bought multiple large banks stocks years ago. Whats everyone think about riding the headwinds Berkshire has created on CVX, and possibly front running him trading into XOM. All I hear about lately is the oil super cycle that is coming.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/woodmackenzie/2021/07/15/a-supercycle-like-no-other/?sh=6944ceca25e9

    https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/3/18/are-we-on-the-verge-on-a-new-commodity-supercycle

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/18/warren-buffett-traders-weigh-in-on-latest-stakes-in-chevron-verizon.html

    submitted by /u/Bankit1984
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    Feels like we are being played

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 02:03 PM PDT

    Market opened green the past 3 days and not just barely green, like literal optimistic green. On tuesday, the dip was harsh and it didn't go back up after that.

    The next two days, market opened green, in fact futures pointed to be green like after market, maintaining decent momentum even upward movement, leading to a green opening/premarket.

    Yet after market opened, it stays flat on the green for like 2 hours and then it just dumped again. I don't think there was an important news that leads to intraday dump.

    submitted by /u/CrowdGoesWildWoooo
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    This will be the Roaring 20s of the 21st Century

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 03:56 PM PDT

    Much like the 1920s, this current decade was preceded by a global short term recession (WWI 1914-1918) and will follow with the one of the greatest periods of prosperity and economic growth this century.

    The convergence of various forms of technological innovation (AI, Big Data, Edge Computing, high speed streaming, Sustainable tech etc.) will result in unparalleled growth into the 2030s.

    I know this post sounds like bullshit, cause it kinda is. I don't have any hard DD. It's just a feeling. But we need to inject some positivity during this time. Lol

    submitted by /u/Puzzleheaded_Top447
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    How to compare the EV/EBITDA multiple of stocks of 2 different companies?

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 01:32 PM PDT

    Hi, I'm writing an essay for a financial club and wanted to know how to approach this question about the EV/EBITDA multiple of two competing companies in the same industry.

    Let's say we are comparing Apple, whose EV/EBITDA is 23.12, and Microsoft, whose EV/EBITDA is 24.29. Why do you think the market values Apple at a lower EV/EBITDA multiple than Coca-Cola (KO)?

    To be clear, my essay is about two different companies in another industry, I'm just having a hard time approaching the question and finding a starting point for my research and want to see how people approach a similar question. How would you start off with Apple vs Microsoft and what would you look at?

    Thanks a lot for the help!

    submitted by /u/jakeperalta9999
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    Wash Sale Questions.

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 10:58 AM PDT

    So I believe I understand the basics of wash sales but I have a few questions..

    1. If I buy a stock in both my brokerage account and then I buy it in my roth account the same day, then I sale both a few months later for a loss but again on the same day. Does that trigger a wash sale and I lose those losses because I owned the same security in a tax advantaged account?

    My understanding in I can't sell it in my brokerage account and then purchase it in my Roth until 30 days has passed... right wrong?

    1. Not buying for 30 days after I sell I'm assuming this is an easy 30 day rule as in I sell for a loss may 1st I could then buy the security on June 2nd and not trigger a wash sale, or is it the more confusing 30 TRADING days? Which would push that date further back.

    2. Lastly a personal example.. I've been trading options on spy recently and I also bought spy (in my roth account recently) this is similar to Q#1 did I lose any losses I may have incurred when I did that? If so, could I trade options on spy and buy a VTI or similar etf and be okay or because they are so similar it would still trigger a wash sale and lose those losses...

    Sorry for so many questions just a little worried since I regularly hold many of the same positions within both accounts.

    Thanks in advance for any helpful answers!

    submitted by /u/Snw323
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    Sesen Bio (SESN) -85% in 1h and no data. What happened?

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 02:15 PM PDT

    I noticed this strange fact in Sesen Bio's charts: on August 13, 2021, between 6:09 pm and 7:09 pm, there was a 85% drop in 1 hour (from 5.9$ to 0.86$) but the data from that hour is missing.

    https://imgur.com/a/LZKB5sG

    The data is missing here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NASDAQ%3ASESN
    and also here: https://www.investing.com/equities/eleven-biothera-chart

    Please, can anyone explain to me what could have happened?

    submitted by /u/ianxxx
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    Looking for advice for TGT

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 09:46 AM PDT

    I bought 100 shares of TGT last year at around $150. I've dabbled with this stock on and off over the years -tbh I'm kicking myself that I sold it when it was at $70 in 2019. It's sitting at $230 as of now, which is great but my fear is that some analysis I've seen has alluded to the stock may be running out of steam and overvalued. For reference, it's been dropping steadily the last few weeks from its ATH if $260. I'm looking to buy a house next year and was hoping to use this as a down payment.

    The stock did go through a similar stretch from January to March of this year. With everything going on politically and economically (potrntial government shut down/possibility of default on debt by Oct-18/US debt ceiling) should I pull out or stay in? Or 3rd option, reduce my position and take some profit while still keeping some skin in the game? My greed and FOMO I think may be getting the better of me, so I'm looking for an unbiased 3rd party for some input.

    submitted by /u/Bouksie
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    How do I control/monitor stocks bought by family over 20 years ago?

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 01:02 PM PDT

    I've only recently started investing my own money into stocks. When I was a young kid, my grandparents bought me stock in Disney and Apple through Mellon Investor Services in New Jersey and put my mom as "custodian". I have paper records with how much stock I own as well as account numbers and investor ID. Now that I'm actively trading stock, I would like to transfer these into my current portfolio so I can monitor them more closely. My question is, how do I go about doing that? I looked up Mellon Investor Services and when I call them, I can't get through to anyone. It almost seems like they aren't an active business? What is standard protocol to take stocks under a custodian and move it into the primary person? Any advice would be much appreciated!

    submitted by /u/musicalpayne
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    Getting $66K from selling a house. Want to put it in stocks short term but figuring out allocation.

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 11:28 AM PDT

    So my wife and I just sold our duplex and want to put it in stocks (also waiting for this debt ceiling to get figured out). We want to buy a house in 3 years (in SoCal) but I'm wondering what might be the best allocation in terms of dividend ETFs and growth ETFs. Obviously I ultimately have to figure it out, but curious what others would do for a 3 year hold.

    submitted by /u/AgentSunBeach
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    Ford to Lead America’s Shift to Electric Vehicles with New Mega Campus in Tennessee and Twin Battery Plants in Kentucky; $11.4B Investment

    Posted: 29 Sep 2021 05:21 PM PDT

    • Ford to bring electric zero-emission vehicles at scale to American customers with the largest, most advanced, most efficient auto production complex in its 118-year history
    • Called Blue Oval City, the complex will be constructed on a nearly 6-square-mile site in west Tennessee and build next-generation electric F-Series pickups and advanced batteries
    • Moreover, a new BlueOvalSK Battery Park is to be built in central Kentucky consisting of twin battery plants that will power a new lineup of Ford and Lincoln EVs
    • Ford and SK Innovation plan to invest $11.4 billion and create nearly 11,000 new jobs – close to 6,000 in Stanton, Tennessee, and 5,000 in Glendale, Kentucky; production of the new electric vehicles and advanced lithium-ion batteries will begin in 2025
    • Three new BlueOvalSK battery plants – two in Kentucky and one in Tennessee – will enable 129 gigawatt hours a year of U.S. production capacity for Ford
    • These investments build on Ford's recent announcements that it will work with Redwood Materials on closed-loop domestic battery recycling and make a new investment to increase production of the F-150 Lightning pickup in Dearborn, Michigan, starting next year
    • Ford is investing $90 million in Texas – $525 million total in the U.S. to train skilled technicians to service connected, electric zero-emission vehicles

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210927005809/en/Ford-to-Lead-America%E2%80%99s-Shift-to-Electric-Vehicles-with-New-Mega-Campus-in-Tennessee-and-Twin-Battery-Plants-in-Kentucky-11.4B-Investment-to-Create-11000-Jobs-and-Power-New-Lineup-of-Advanced-EVs#.YVJe7WOE6gw.twitter

    submitted by /u/ILikeTalkn2Myself
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    What should I invest in?

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 11:15 AM PDT

    Hi! I'm new to all this and I'm honestly not sure what to invest in, I'm worried about losing a lot of money. I want to invest but have no idea where to start. I just set up my Robinhood account and it is now approved to start investing.

    If anyone could please help me on what is a good place to start that would be great. I was thinking that since I'm new I should start in penny stocks but I'm not sure

    submitted by /u/Ari_8118
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    Where do you guys get your news.

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 08:32 AM PDT

    I personally only listen to seeking alpha… sike. Anyways ,,, I use TD ameritrade and Webull and there's a lot of dumb news if you know what I mean, things completely unrelated to a stock your looking at or the market .

    I'm looking for a news source that posts more important news related to stocks , not "here's how much you'd have if you invested… in….. 5 years ago" . I'd appreciate your input..

    I just got the app "hungry bull" created by some you tubers, the post every few days and the articles summarize big news that have dropped recently . Also have a lot of watchlist, stock functionality.

    submitted by /u/Careful_Mirror6886
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    Technical Analysis Books

    Posted: 30 Sep 2021 12:39 PM PDT

    Looks to be 'Getting Started in Technical Analysis' is a favorite among a GOOG search, and 'TA of the Financial Markets' is a Best Seller on AMZN. Your recommendations or thoughts on reading materials would be greatly appreciated?

    And Um, thank god September is over!My P/L veered more L this month. A learning experience nonetheless!

    submitted by /u/mrericvillalobos
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