Stocks - Imminent Market Crash DD. Why I believe the U.S. stock market and U.S. Dollar will fall. |
- Imminent Market Crash DD. Why I believe the U.S. stock market and U.S. Dollar will fall.
- The ultrarich, the aging population and the interest rate with perspective we can apply to Japan, 1930 or now
- Tesla further delays Cybertruck timeline to late 2022, Roadster delayed until 2023
- Is $V (VISA) a good long term hold for 5 years or more?
- Which ETFs for growth over 5 years?
- Possibility of Apple buying Lucid Motors, and Chewy buying Zomedica
- Delisted companies popping (going up)?
- Why don’t we have higher consumer prices?
- This map shows how Amazon is rapidly growing its air fleet across the U.S.
- AAPL or cash?
- We have had 8 months already in the trading year so far, were the first 4 months better for you? Jan-April or May thru August?
- Looking for input on these 8 sectors
- $NET Cloudflare overvalued?
- What was your biggest loser?
- DAE keep dividend reinvesting off due to cost basis not being picked up by tax software? I'm too lazy to manually enter it during tax season
- Which indicators do you use and would you mind explaining their purpose?
- Alert: Match Group (Tinder) joins SP500 and MicroStrategy gets removed from SP600.
- First time putting money into retirement.
- What is the value of options, or how do people make/lose mind bending amounts of money by what seems to be largely options plays?
| Imminent Market Crash DD. Why I believe the U.S. stock market and U.S. Dollar will fall. Posted: 04 Sep 2021 10:36 AM PDT This journey began for me with a random conversation. I was at a grocery store on my break from work and while I was looking at different Greek yogurts, I overheard a man say something I couldn't believe. I turned around and said "Sir… I'm sorry, what did you just say?" He introduced himself as the owner of the grocery store (locally owned in St.Pete/Clearwater FL area) the gentlemen proceeded to tell me that last year he paid around $4,000 for a crate of food…he said one year later, that same EXACT CRATE IS NOW $14,000. So…when I got into my car I had an idea. I wonder what the U.S. Dollar index is trading at…I'm sure it's bloody red (I assumed) what I saw literally made my jaw drop. I'm not joking…at that time the U.S. dollar happened to be at a 9 month high. I couldn't fucking believe it. At that moment I knew…we had fucked up. https://imgur.com/a/tBVu4f1 After already doing mini DD on why the U.S. dollar might fall just days before (just watching random videos on YouTube about Dr. Burry and stock shit) I immediately opened a position in my car to profit from this current situation. Which was call options in $TBT. An ETF with 2x inverse exposure on 20+ U.S Treasury bonds. In simple terms, this is a bet on hyperinflation. I believe that the Federal Reserve WILL BE FORCED to raise rates (as that is their main tool in their toolkit to fight inflation) faster than ANYONE is anticipating. Which in turn would collapse bond prices. Making the calls print. I currently have a small position right now. Now this brings me to the U.S. stock market. I sold all my stocks 2 days ago. I have long exposure in only one position currently. A $50/$80 call debit spread in VIAC. Simply put, if I'm wrong and the market just keeps going, then the $350 I payed for spread will generate nearly $3,000 if VIAC is over $80 on expiration, which is in 2 years. Let me start with my TA first…which is alarming. https://imgur.com/a/kmLCxPX This was yesterday, Friday, September 3. $SPY is at a critical resistance level…I mean…it literally is hitting the fucking roof here… and with everything going on in the world…you want more?!?? Sorry to burst your bubble…but how was that even theoretically feasible? It's impossible in my opinion. Let me explain why… Am I literally the only one who saw on Thursday that Morgan Stanley updated their forecast for the third quarter GDP expectations??? Let me fill you in on a little secret…THEY CUT THEIR FUCKING ESTIMATES BY MORE THAN HALF!!!!! For fucks sake people, THIS IS HUGE!! This is a quote from a brand new article literally posted 45 minutes ago from the Washington Post! "The team at Morgan Stanley led by chief U.S. economist Ellen Zentner just slashed its forecast for gross domestic product growth this quarter to 2.9% from 6.5%." I can't make this shit up. I started writing my DD before they posted that article, before that you could only find a Seeking Alpha article that you have to pay to read… I discovered this off of my live updates of Bloomberg news. I'm actually having trouble trying to find the article I originally read…I wish I was joking. Whatever…weird. Gross domestic product is a key indicator of economic activity in the United States. So…yeah we're fucked. Which in turn has a DIRECT impact on companie's future earnings… and we all know that Wall Street has extremely high expectations now… Simply put, when lumber goes up that means people are building homes and buying homes and it is a metric of strong economic growth. When gold goes down (safe haven assest, less risk) that is associated with times where stocks and real estate are up, which makes them more attractive and gold less attractive. So investors use this ratio to decide when to play offense and when to play defense while managing an active portfolio. This ratio calculates how many contracts of Lumber you can buy with an ounce of gold. Get it? Good. Now feast your eyes on this https://imgur.com/a/dlpfsfZ The lumber/gold ratio HAS PLUMMETED in the last 2 months…literally fucking straight down. Which is a key indicator for an upcoming correction/crash. (Remember…play defense) Side note: Lumber has gone up tremendously the last week because of the hurricane situation. But…gold was up big this week as well…and say prayers for the people suffering from Hurricane Ida. In simple terms, increased consumer confidence indicates economic growth in which consumers are spending money, indicating higher consumption. So…for the month of July The Conference Board of consumer confidence which gets its data from a survey of about 3,000 households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and overall economic situation. They reported 125.10 on the index for the month of July. Boy…were they in for a surprise. The month of August has a consensus estimate of 123.0, the number was 113.9….a very surprising miss. I wasn't surprised at all to be honest with you. Let me be clear…I believe Jerome Powell with his magical money printer and rising inflation will be the reason the market falls, also the fact that the government is just handing out free money to every single person with excess stimulus, it's going to collapse our financial system possibly…also with all the over leveraging you have the perfect brew of a shit storm. Also with rising delta concerns, the new variant "Mu" and mass evictions will soon begin… Since the start of 2013 the SPY has hit 329 all time highs. This is more than the epic run from 1989-2000 where SPY hit 327 all time highs. No big deal right? This is a chart of the total assets held in all Federal Reserve Banks. https://imgur.com/a/l8S1SYP No big deal right? Median American home prices have now surpassed the 2006 housing bubble peak. https://imgur.com/a/KJ3KIsi No big deal right? I mean FOR FUCKS SAKES!!!! I literally could go on and on…. But you get the point by now…let's not forget the craziness in the Middle East right now, massive devastating storms crippling our country, rising food costs, I'm sure gas will be very high soon. Also, expect to see companies raising their national minimum wage. YOU WILL SEE THIS TREND. Don't get me started on the mass evictions as well…and the FED has been buying MORTGAGE BACKED Securities… The very financial instrument the collapse of economy in 2008. Now…my positions. Take this into consideration… I'm 28 years old and I have about $4,000 combined in all of my different portfolios. I may or may not have just got out of prison 9 months ago after completing a 5 year prison sentence. So…Not financial advice. Short term: sold 4 different Call options on SPY via call credit spreads. $455/$456 9/15 exp- 2 sold $456/457 9/13 exp- 2 sold Bought 3 $10 puts in $BFI 9/17 exp Long term: One $13 call option in $HIBS (this security blew up 200%-300% in the span of days during the covid crash) It basically shorts TSLA and other ridiculous growth stocks… I looked at their top 10 holdings and like seven out of 10 of them are at all time highs lol. 2 calls in $TECS $5 strike price. 1/21/22 exp. This is a 3x bear inverse of tech stocks. It's holdings are like AAPL and MSFT. I want to short stocks that are trading at all time highs. Because when this house of cards finally crumbles they will fall the hardest. There WILL BE MARGIN CALLS. You can bet on that. 1 call option in $TBT exp 1/20/23 (hyperinflation bet/Fed raising rates quicker) One $50/$80 call debit spread in $VIAC Exp. 1/22/23 (long exposure to act as my hedge if by some divine miracle I'm wrong) My last position: $2,500 in Cash. Simply put…cash is a position. People seem to forget that. And I will simply buy the dip in my favorite companies… my choice of extremely cheap shares. Trust me… I already have my shopping list ready. Good luck out there guys. Timing this is almost impossible…but my timeline is within 6 months we will experience at least a 15% correction if not a full blown apocalyptic market crash. It's hard to really assess the damage on how bad it will be. And for those who refuse to take the needle out of their arms, enjoy getting margin called and losing all of your money! The company PLTR has positioned themselves for what they call a "Black swan event"by purchasing $50 million in solid gold bars.Not gold ETFs. Solid gold bars…Let me remind you that they deal with information. Edit: TLTR: just read the bold shit… [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 04 Sep 2021 07:04 AM PDT Finally an article about interest rate with substance! Link to article My take A) government spending that result in reduced debt load to the average Joe are in everyone's best interest. B) I should be overweight where there is still significant infrastructure to be developed: automation tools (SPY or QQQ?) and emerging market. What are your interpretations? Any nuance needed to be added. [link] [comments]  |
| Tesla further delays Cybertruck timeline to late 2022, Roadster delayed until 2023 Posted: 03 Sep 2021 07:05 PM PDT The Tesla Cybertruck delay was already a known fact, but CEO Elon Musk's latest reported comments add a few more details to the picture. Citing sources familiar with the meeting, Electrek reported Thursday that Musk held a company-wide call and said the Cybertruck should be ready for production in late 2022. If the company plans for beta trucks later this year, that leaves nowhere near enough time to start actual production in late 2021. Following his comments, Tesla updated the Cybertruck's reservation page to note production will fire up in 2022. Though, according to Musk, we're not looking at early 2022 or anything like that. And as we suspected, the CEO underscored the electric truck's volume models may not be ready until sometime in 2023. If Tesla follows this timeline, we'll get the priciest tri-motor model in 2022, then the dual- and single-motor trucks in 2023. Link: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-cybertruck-pickup-production-delay-elon-musk/ Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla has delayed the new Roadster program to 2023, and even then, that's only going to happen with a big "if." Tesla started taking reservations for the impressive electric supercar with a 0-60 mph in 1.9 seconds and over 600 miles of range at the unveiling event. Link: https://electrek.co/2021/09/01/tesla-delays-new-roadster-2023/ [link] [comments]  |
| Is $V (VISA) a good long term hold for 5 years or more? Posted: 04 Sep 2021 04:42 AM PDT Recently V and MA had a dip and of course I bought some. However I've seen many mixed feelings about VISA as many people thinks that other financial platforms like Square, PayPal, Affirm and possibly crypto payments will affect V/MA negatively in the long term. Here in Asia where I live, VISA is used most common everywhere, from grocery shopping to credit cards and online shopping. Pretty much everyone here use VISA or MasterCard for easy contactless payments even for our bus and train commutes. What are your thoughts on V/MA especially if one were to hold it for a few years? Did you buy the dip? [link] [comments]  |
| Which ETFs for growth over 5 years? Posted: 04 Sep 2021 08:48 AM PDT Investing from the UK. Currently 80% of my portfolio is in Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VUSA - I believe it is VOO in the USA?). 11% APPL and 9% GOOGL. I want to start putting money in different ETFs to rely less on VUSA and to provide some diversification. Even though I'm in the UK I just have little faith in the growth potential of the FTSE100. Which ETFs would you recommend to go in tandem with VUSA? Looking at a 5-10 year investment period. [link] [comments]  |
| Possibility of Apple buying Lucid Motors, and Chewy buying Zomedica Posted: 04 Sep 2021 11:35 AM PDT I read a story where Apple was for sure going into EV cars by 2024. I'm thinking about picking up some Lucid Motors since: 1) They're American and already have production in place. 2) Are very cheap for Apple to pickup and save them years of ramping up engineers, supply chain, experience…etc. Also, looking at Zomedica which is telehealth for pets. Chewy is an online only pet supply company and I think with Zomedicas cheap share price, makes it an attractive addition to their company. Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Delisted companies popping (going up)? Posted: 04 Sep 2021 09:02 AM PDT EDIT: Removed all mention of stock tickers to comply with Rule 7! This is just for learning! No ticker mentions please! DOn't get me banned! ---------------- I made a post yesterday trying to buy shares of delisted stock (basically Blockbuster and Sears ) but it was removed. Maybe because it was considered penny cuz it was, duh, worth pennies! SORRY MODS! Trying to continue that question/topic so I can learn better: I know I cannot buy these shares (bummer!). But is it common for delisted companies that retail cannot buy to jump up so big? I mean, these companies are "bankrupt" and facing liquidation, so they technically should not go up at all. Whatever is remaining should be sold to pay down debt, etc. In fact, if facing liquidation, why are they trading in the first place? Retail cannot buy in, so, who is gaining from BLIAQ and SHLDQ going up? ------------------- NOTE: I'm dating myself here, but I loved Blockbuster when it was around. Even before streaming, with Netflix mail in DVDs, I still went to my local Blockbuster to check out videos and rent videos and videogames. So yea, it wasn't 'dying' to me, which might be a small niche population. I still go to my local book store to buy my books and in my company, we always try to purchase from small businesses first. NOTE: "To protect investors" was a lot of comments previously; but I had positions in BABA and also VIAC and I did not feel protected when it plummeted, so now I'm calloused and put money aside for these "stock bets" (not options), even if it's just a few k. NOTE: People telling me to just put it into index / ETFs; yes, I have those too. I'm not looking for 7-10% a year. I'm looking for some quick buck or two to feed into my FIRE. Happy with making 2-3% a month, but have been doing roughly 8-9% monthly. Also, these are for my leisure trading hobby. In at open, out when my target is reached , around 30-40%. Sometimes, I don't hold more than a day or two. I have a day job which is pretty stress free and gives me time to day trade (and learn about stuff). NOTE: Amazon vs (anyone): Yes, I saw the post in the other subreddit. This is NOT about that. My household does not have Prime, but I do give props to them for giving small businesses a store front to sell product, much like what eBay did many moons ago. NOTE: Thank you to folks sending me to that video game stock. I read the Due Diligence there. This is NOT about that. MODS: I mark this as industry discussion to learn more. Let me know if this question is out of place or which words to remove and I'll edit!!!! [link] [comments]  |
| Why don’t we have higher consumer prices? Posted: 04 Sep 2021 11:46 AM PDT The central banks are printing money and buying assets (quantitative easing) like never before. The central base rates (FED, ECB, etc.) are at their lowest values in their history. As there is more money in the system stock prices and real estate prices climb higher and higher. Various stock market valuations show this (CAPE, Buffett Indicator, etc). FIRST QUESTION: We have quite low reported inflation (2-3 %) in various countries where central banks print money and have low base rates (US, European countries, etc). For example in Germany where the interest rate is negative (ECB), the ECB is printing money like there is no tomorrow and the Inflation is at about 2.5%. How can the reported inflation be so low when in fact we have such low base rates and as data shows we are printing money and buying assets like never before? SECOND QUESTION: Interestingly the consumer prices are not climbing in the same pace (everyday goods and stuff normal people are buying) compared to stock prices or real estate prices). Normally the prices of goods needed to double in the last 2-3 years based on the amount of money printing etc. Again example in Germany: We are seeing stock price increases, increases in real estate prices. But… Nearly no increase in bananas, washing powder or most of the other daily usage goods… How can this be? [link] [comments]  |
| This map shows how Amazon is rapidly growing its air fleet across the U.S. Posted: 04 Sep 2021 12:57 PM PDT https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/04/map-of-amazon-air-locations-.html Amazon's air cargo fleet is an increasingly critical component of its logistics machine. As a result of recent expansion, 70% of the U.S. population now lives within 100 miles of an Amazon Air airport. Amazon now has more advantage to control the logistic networks. As amazon keep expanding the air fleets, it will eventually going to compete with fedex and ups, and no need to use their services at all. This is good as amazon still pushing for faster delivery and improve customers satisfaction. Investors should be patient and keep holding the stock. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 04 Sep 2021 01:16 PM PDT I've got 20% cash right now. Buy AAPL now or wait for a correction? Some is in ROTH. I figure say I buy $5k of AAPL now and make a little bit on its possible rise to $160 or $180 and then sell? Or do you wait till we get a correction and buy AAPL at $140? Who knows if it would even go that low. But also I could just keep a close eye on it in my ROTH and sell if it starts to get close to what I paid for it now? What would you do? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 04 Sep 2021 05:33 AM PDT Good morning everyone. Happy Saturday and thank you so much for taking a time out to read my post. I figured a topic like this can help others, or comfort others as well as share strategies so we can all do better, or make changes to be positive. We are on an epic run of amazing proportions. I have been trading since the 90s and the Nasdaq boom, Nasdaq 5,000 at that time was epic…. However, nothing I have ever seen is even close to the Nasdaq dropping near 6,000 March 2020 and now record highs every single day 15,500+ in a short period… so I was curious for most of you which times were better. The first 4 months of trading/investing or the last 4 months… This may sound odd because the DOW, SP, NASDAQ keep making new highs…however it is more of the blue chips and mega caps making new highs everyday. The Indexes and ETFS are all cap weighted except for the DOW, which means stocks like AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, FB, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA can carry the market to new highs without aid…. For myself, I actually am not hitting record highs, I do take a lot of money out for real estate but even if I did not I know I would not be…however the first 4 months I was! At that time a lot of the stocks I trade were making new highs. FEBRUARY/MARCH/APRIL especially….. JUNE/JULY for me were very rough and AUGUST I was coming back.. Please share some ideas, experience or strategies so we can all help one another. Thank you. [link] [comments]  |
| Looking for input on these 8 sectors Posted: 04 Sep 2021 07:12 AM PDT Hello folks, I've been doing tons of research myself but would like some input on what your thoughts are on the following sectors and the ETFs I am likely to invest in. Currently I am already big in tech (TEC), semi conductors (CHPS), BTCC/ETHR and lastly EDGE which focuses on Cyber Security, EV, Robotics, Automation, Genomics and Video Games. When I look into the next decade and beyond I see big growth in the following. Uranium - HURA Lithium - HLIT Marijuana - HMMJ Clean Energy - ICLN Online Gambling - BETZ 3D Printing - PRNT Water - CWW Healthcare - TDOC Let me know what you think and if there are any other sectors you think will have huge growth in the next decade. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 04 Sep 2021 03:23 AM PDT Cloudflare had a great run-up this year, already 75% from Jan 1st, 2021. It feels like it is going to continue going up, but RSI is 99 and a correction is due. It is one of my long -term picks, so I am hesitant to sell. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Sep 2021 08:08 PM PDT I just had mine. VDMRF. It is a Canadian Vanadium and iron mining company. I picked up 1000 shares at $0.16 and today the share price dropped to $0.00006 per share. That's over a 99% loss. Who can beat that? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 04 Sep 2021 12:53 PM PDT I used to just enter 0 as cost basis when I was playing with small amounts of money, but now that I'm 100% invested, I could be seriously overpaying my tax bill. So instead, I just halted all my dividend reinvestments in my taxable account. Does anybody else do this? [link] [comments]  |
| Which indicators do you use and would you mind explaining their purpose? Posted: 03 Sep 2021 11:30 PM PDT I currently use ToS and there are number of studies and strategies to choose from. I've been using moving averages, MACD, RSI, VWAP, but would like to learn more about what other traders are using for their charts. I don't mind taking the time to do my own research behind your preferred methods, but a general description and benefit for the tools you use would be appreciated. [link] [comments]  |
| Alert: Match Group (Tinder) joins SP500 and MicroStrategy gets removed from SP600. Posted: 03 Sep 2021 07:32 PM PDT 3 companies will be added to SP500 which are: "Match Group Inc. (NASD:MTCH) which will replace Perrigo Company plc (NYSE:PRGO) in the S&P 500, Ceridian HCM Holding Inc. (NYSE:CDAY), and Brown & Brown Inc. (NYSE:BRO) will move to the S&P 500, replacing Unum Group (NYSE:UNM) and NOV Inc."(Nyse:Nov.) 3 companies will also change in sp400 midcap and sp600 smallcap index. A notable change is "Healthcare Services Group which will replace MicroStrategy Inc. (NASD:MSTR) in the S&P SmallCap 600. " Source: PrNewsWire. The changes will happen on September 20th Monday. Microstrategy will no longer be in any S&P index, the company worth 7 billion dollars is too high to be in the 2 billion or under smallcap index but was not upgraded to midcap index. I was suprised on some companies not being added to SP500 such as dell or zoom. To be included in the SP500 stocks need to be worth at least 10 billion and need to be profitable U.S companies. SP400 is 2-10 billion and SP600 are 300 million to 2 billion. So, What other stocks do you see could be added in the SP500 or the other indexes in the future? [link] [comments]  |
| First time putting money into retirement. Posted: 03 Sep 2021 06:40 PM PDT Hello, I just got my first job. I was given the advice to immediately start saving for retirement even though I am only 23. My company uses Fidelity Net Benefits to contribute to the retirement fund. I was wondering whether I should put it into Stock, Blended Fund Investments, or Bonds. Also how do I read the AAR (%) for each investment? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Sep 2021 10:06 PM PDT I have just gotten approval to play with lvl 2 options on Fidelity, and I'm fishing for information as to what I should know. Here is what I can only assume to be a pretty good writeup on some stuff to look into options, but there's a certain paragraph
That quote sparked a question. As you can see in this quote, if we were to theoretically throw 1k into this scenario we'd be "worth" 17k in the market. What exactly does this mean? Does this mean I suddenly, magically have 17k to play with? If I were to close the entirety of this theoretical position, would I be sitting on 17k cold hard cash instead of the 1k I put in not a minute ago? This line of thinking got me wondering more broadly how are life changing amounts of money being made and lost in options. In my brief youtube research adventures, one point that particularly stuck out to me was that the contract price is multiplied by 100 to get the actual price you'd pay for that contract. Poking around the various options chains on my watchlists, it seems that generally you'd need several hundred to several thousand dollars just to get a single contract. E: well shit guys I just found another comment that heavily makes me believe there's something I'm not understanding about the ludicrous amounts of money you can make by playing with options, evidently now by not even going in the money. Can you guys see what I'm not getting? Now obviously the more you invest (or gamble) the greater dollar change you'll see for better or worse. So...are the massive gains and losses I see just by large stakes being placed, or is there (also) some hidden mechanic of options I've yet to learn about that creates these huge swings? [link] [comments]  |
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