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    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Aug 05, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Aug 05, 2021


    r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Aug 05, 2021

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 02:30 AM PDT

    This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on stock options, but if options aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against options here and not in the current post.

    Some helpful day to day links, including news:


    Required info to start understanding options:

    • Call option Investopedia video basically a call option allows you to buy 100 shares of a stock at a certain price (strike price), but without the obligation to buy
    • Put option Investopedia video a put option allows you to sell 100 shares of a stock at a certain price (strike price), but without the obligation to sell

    See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

    Call option - Put option - Exercising an option - Strike price - ITM - OTM - ATM - Long options - Short options - Combo - Debit - Credit or Premium - Covered call - Naked - Debit call spread - Credit call spread - Strangle - Iron condor - Vertical debit spreads - Iron Fly

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is delta," then google "investopedia delta" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Robinhood retreats after monster rally this week as stockholders file to sell 97,9 million shares!

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 04:24 AM PDT

    Robinhood said on Thursday in an amended filing that existing shareholders will sell up 97.9 million shares over time. The news knocked shares of the trading app that have surged this week.

    The commission-free broker will not receive any of the proceeds from the stock sale of 97,876,033 shares of its Class A common stock. The offering is through an automatic conversion of certain convertible notes held by the selling stockholders in connection with its initial public offering.

    The stockholders were among those that came to Robinbood's rescue during the historic trading mania earlier this year. Faced with unprecedented volatility and increased deposit requirements, the broker was forced to tap credit lines and raised new debt to ensure it has enough cash to clear trades. It also briefly restricted trading in a number of short-squeeze names.

    These selling shareholders include a number of venture capital firms that invested in Robinhood early on. For instance, New Enterprise Associates, which owns more than 10% of Robinhood shares, is among the list of sellers in this offering. Andreessen Horowitz, ICONIQ Capital, Institutional Venture Partners and Ribbit Capital were also among the selling stockholders.

    Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/05/robinhood-shares-fall-as-stockholders-file-to-sell-up-to-97point9-million-shares-over-time.html

    submitted by /u/Zwoxlol
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    The Coming Crisis.

    Posted: 04 Aug 2021 04:33 PM PDT

    TL;DR at bottom.

    Here's your obligatory bear post for the day/week/whatever.

    I'm not an expert but I do have some qualifications that lead me to believe that the global economy is in for some trouble. I could be wrong, of course, and actually my entire theory is predicated on that fact. Still, I feel I am sure enough in my convictions to the point where this statement is worth making. You may disagree with the worthiness of this post, and of course, the premise behind it. That's fine; I'm just here to share the way I see things.

    What's certain is that, even if one may see the warning signs of a looming crisis, it's near impossible to tell when that crisis might be. I have no idea. All I know is I see some precariousness and warning signs right now. So, without further ado:

    The Uncertain Nature of the World

    The world is uncertain. Black swan events happen, and they happen frequently. Again, some people may have some inkling of them, but it's hard if not impossible to predict these things with any degree of certainty. Some examples that come to mind (please excuse the lack of chronological ordering): the Covid-19 pandemic, September 11th, the Global Financial Crisis, the John F. Kennedy assassination, Columbus discovering America, the Challenger/Colombia space shuttle disasters, the assassination of Franz Ferdinand leading to WW1, the Great Depression, the Black Death, the storm that destroyed the Spanish Armada, the Wehrmacht crossing the Ardennes, the smart phone / internet revolution, etc. The last one is interesting if you ever saw Back to the Future: Pt. 2. The most they predicted were flying cars, but not smart phones or internet.

    But I digress. These events are part and parcel of life, and the major events of history do not happen in a linear fashion. Sure, we may be able to connect the dots after the fact, but when they happen it's almost unbelievable: we seem to be taken utterly by surprise. Just think: apart from Bill Gates or someone like that, which one of us normal folk thought we'd be dealing with a pandemic this time 2 years ago? I certainly didn't imagine it.

    And it happens in our personal lives too. You meet someone. You have a break up. You get injured. You get sick. You lose a loved one. You fall in love. Who knows? Life is very, very unpredictable.

    Don't get me wrong; that doesn't mean I don't think we should try. Science helps. We can form hypotheses and test them. This adds a lot of certainty to a world that is very uncertain. But even Einstein would admit that some things are simply out of our grasp:

    "What I see in Nature is a magnificent structure that we can comprehend only very imperfectly, and that must fill a thinking person with a feeling of humility."

    The Folly of Economics

    I studied economics. I was very interested in Econ 101 and decided to make that my major. Later, however, I was disappointed in what I learned. I don't know. There was just too much mathematical formulating and analysis. I didn't feel, really, that I had learned much of anything that was actually relevant and applicable to the real world. To be honest, at the time I just thought I was an idiot and bad at math, blaming myself rather than the field (as a young, lost kid might be prone to do). Looking back, however, I think there were serious shortcomings that I had picked up on but did not have the tools to express.

    I'm not saying that there isn't a place for that sort of analysis in the study of economics: I imagine there is. I just don't think that it should be the singular focus of the whole field. Indeed, while mathematical equations are imperative for pure math and even for practical applications like physics and chemistry, can they really be applied with the same rigorous veracity to the study of something so complex and changeable as the economy?

    Former economic advisor at the Bank of International Settlements William White argues that instead of looking at the economy through equations and equilibria, we should be viewing the economy as a complex adaptive system. You know, like a garden. You have an idea in mind of what you want to plant and where, but some plants die, some don't, weeds pop up, there might be an infestation. The whole thing is quite unpredictable because it depends on an enormous amount of variables interacting with each other. Well, that's a lot like the economy. (Read more here: Recognizing the Economy as a Complex, Adaptive System: Implications for Central Banks)

    The Folly of Modern Central Banking

    The folly here follows naturally from the aforementioned ontological error in the field of economics: we think the economy is predictable and controlable. Cut interest rates here, buy assets there, and we're good to go. If only it were that simple.

    Look at the data we're looking at right now. Despite absolutely unprecedented amounts of liquidity being pumped by the Federal Reserve (and by other central banks around the world), we're still unable to get people back to work. Check out the ADP numbers today: 653,000 new positions were expected in July, but the actual result was a miss by just over half (330,000). If you've been paying attention to the data in past months as well, you've noticed consistent misses in employment. And how about inflation? YoY inflation hikes are expected due to base effects from the pandemic last year, but MoM inflation has been coming in consistently higher than expected. All of this makes you wonder: does the Fed really have things under control? Could they have things under control?

    I would argue that you can't solve structural employment issues by throwing liquidity at the markets. The problem is not liquidity, there's plenty of it: the problem is structural mismatches, as well as other factors like people preferring to take extended unemployment rather than working. You can't fix that with more liquidity. One of the most respected modern economists, Paul Krugman, would probably say "well, it can't hurt". And according to their models, it can't. Unfortunately economists and central bankers seem to do be doing their absolute best to turn a blind eye to obvious asset bubbles. SPX is up nearly 48% since pandemic lows less than 18 months ago, while the Nasdaq is up nearly 58% in the same period. Meanwhile the real economy has been absolutely hammered. The Shiller PE ratio is at 38.25 at time of writing - a level unseen since prior to the bursting of the dot-com bubble. It is clear that there is a severe disconnect between fundamentals and asset prices due to excessive liquidity in the system.

    If the Fed manages a controlled walk down of interest rates, and earnings continue to grow into current valuations, then no problem, right? Right. It's possible. But that would be hoping for the best. William White argues that it's more rational to prepare for the worst rather than naively hoping for the best. A long series of things would have to go according to plan for this bubble to be "defused", and any number of unforeseen events could arise in order to knock the whole plan off track. Some examples come to mind (and these are just the ones that we can fathom... the whole point is that there are more that we probably can't): Delta variant or other Covid-related scares, geopolitical tensions with China/USA/Taiwan, inflation running hotter than expected, etc.

    And speaking of inflation, why in the world is the Federal Reserve so confident that inflation is transitory? As I mentioned above, YoY and MoM inflation expectations have come in consistently higher than expectations over the course of the last few months, oftentimes to the tune of 70-80%. If whoever is making these predictions is getting it so wrong in regards to the numbers, who's to say that they aren't getting it wrong in regards to it being transitory?

    Look, it very well may be: the supply chain disruption argument is a valid and strong one. But nobody has a crystal ball. The Fed is not an all-seeing eye where they can simply predict exactly what is going to happen. One might hope that the Fed would be more prudent and humble in their analysis of the situation.

    And certainly the Fed has a long history of getting things wrong. In early 2007 Ben Bernanke famously declared that subprime was "contained". Just a few months later, when the crisis did begin to arise, Jim Cramer called out Bernanke for "being an academic" and for being out of touch with the situation on the ground. Look, I don't really like Cramer, but I do believe he was in the right at this particular moment. This sub won't allow me to link it here, but I recommend looking up "Cramer tells Bernanke to wake up" on YouTube. It's worth a watch.

    Let's not forget either that even before these two events the Fed absolutely failed to anticipate the crisis in the first place. Later they would say that such a crisis was unpredictable, and totally based on panic. But they forget the fact that people like Dr. Michael Burry, of Big Short book and film fame, did see it coming. All of the people in that book saw it coming. Even William White saw it coming, and warned Alan Greenspan of it at Jackson Hole in 2003. The Fed, however, did not see it coming. Bernanke would also claim that the crisis was nothing more than old-fashioned financial panic, and that if not for the panic it would have been the equivalent of merely "a bad day in the stock market". This is a convenient view for him to take, as it alleviates him of all responsibility for completely bungling the situation. Even Paul Krugman challenges Bernanke's assertion that it was all related to financial panic and not at all tied to fundamentals in the housing market.

    Of course, Bernanke and those around him would hold on to their view that nobody could have seen the crisis coming, and go on to congratulate themselves for rescuing the country and the world from a crisis that they themselves had failed to prevent.

    Where We Are Today

    And that brings us to where we are today, with massive monetary stimulus coming from the Fed and all major central banks as a response to the Covid-19 crisis. The response to 2008 was seen, rightfully in many ways, as a success. By injecting liquidity into markets when they needed it most, the Fed and other central banks were able to stave off the next Great Depression. Unfortunately, however, apart from their failure to prevent the crisis in the first place, central banks have also failed to take into account the limitations of their policies. Not only have their policies become less effective, but they've also opened the door for a dangerous array of unintended consequences (William White talks about both issues here). William White also says that, contrary to what the Fed seems to believe, monetary policy "is no free lunch".

    Recovery since 2008 has been asymmetric: we seem to be trying to fix deep, structural problems via simple injections of liquidity. Meanwhile, inequality grows, the poor get poorer, and political and social unrest continue to grow as a result. It's a dangerous path to go down, and rather than try to explain it myself, I would recommend reading the White paper I linked above. One clear and present danger I see today, which White mentioned in the paper, is the presence of serial bubbles: the dot-com bubble led to the housing bubble, and the housing bubble has led to the current stock market bubble, only to be aggravated by the Covid crisis and the Fed's response to it (ironically causing a new bubble in the housing market as well). If something unforeseen were to happen, these bubbles could pop, causing lasting damage to Main Street.

    Another issue I see now is that, if we were to have another crisis, what more could be done? How much higher can the Fed expand their balance sheet? How much more deficit spending can the federal government engage in? I believe that we are dangerously close to exhausting our policy options.

    If everything goes according to plan, it's possible that everything works out just fine. The issue, however, may be in assuming that everything will go according to plan.

    What To Do as an Investor

    I'm not an expert at this, but I would not tell anyone to go cash right now. I would say, however, that it may be wise to hold a larger cash percentage than you're normally accustomed to. If you normally hold 5% in your portfolio, for example, then maybe you'd consider holding 10-15%. This will provide for buying opportunities in the event that we do have a major correction, and it will also help to preserve capital. That said, full cash does not seem to be the way to go. If you're waiting for a crash, you may be waiting forever.

    What I would recommend, and this seems pertinent to a lot of what I see on this subreddit, is diversification. I see people with dangerous allocations into overvalued tech stocks ("buy Microsoft at any valuation"), holding 3-4 tech stocks as their whole portfolio, a 2-fund portfolio with levered funds UPRO and TQQQ, etc. I see people holding large allocations of ARK funds and other "disruptive" tech with unproven track records. I see people recommending lump sums right now, because, "on average", they do better.

    If it were me, I would diversify and play it more conservatively. VOO would be infinitely better than UPRO, for example. A diversified portfolio of blue-chips which very well may (and should) include stocks like Microsoft would be infinitely better than only holding Microsoft. Patient dollar cost averaging would probably be wiser than dumping one's life savings into an S+P 500 index fund at the moment.

    I would also encourage people to look at fundamentals. One should never, IMO, feel the urge to pay for a stock at 30, 35, or 50+ times earnings just because of "future growth potential". It's a gamble.

    In the end, all of these strategies that I am opposed to may end up working out and may even end up doing better than my conservative approach. The problem, however, is what happens if they don't.

    TL;DR, Summary, and Final Thoughts

    As humans we seem to have a problem with humility. In some ways I think it's painful for us to accept our limitations and fragility. Thus, it's easier for us to pretend that the world is predictable, orderly, and within our control. This fallacy has made it's way into the field of economics and by extension into central banks and the Federal Reserve. Current policies, encouraged by the "success" of 2008, operate under the fallacy that the economy is orderly and able to be controlled with surgical precision, rather than accepting the unpredictability of the economy as a complex adaptive system and taking measures to be prepared for black swan events which will inevitably occur.

    As a society and as investors, we can certainly hope for the best, and sometimes the best does manifest itself, and in those cases such optimism does tend to lead to better outcomes for those who profess it. However, perhaps a more prudent, realistic approach would be to prepare for the worst, or at the very least recognize our limitations and put measures in place in order to mitigate the damage which can be caused by unforeseen disruptive events.

    Good luck and best wishes to all.

    submitted by /u/shortyafter
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    Fiverr (FVRR) Is Down 23% Pre-Market, Despite Great Q2 2021 Earnings, Is It A Buy Opportunity?

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 06:53 AM PDT

    Anyone know why Fiverr (FVRR) crashed so hard during after hours today? Looks like it had great earnings, certainly positive, and met, yet somehow crashed downwards, this severely. Is it a great buying opportunity?

    submitted by /u/LifeInAction
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    The insiders Robinhood pump and dump

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 09:08 AM PDT

    Looks like the insiders successfully pumped Robinhood stock up before declaring they were going to dump their shares. People should smarten up and realize Vlad and the insiders are getting rich off the backs of retail investors.

    submitted by /u/HelpfulFit
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    $MVST target price?

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 07:23 AM PDT

    Hi guys, just wanted to get a debate going n see what people think of MVST and how much you think the stock can go to, I'm not saying buy it I've done a little bit of DD myself and I already have my positions in the company, just wanted a feel of what other people thought?

    submitted by /u/Diam0ndhandfists
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    Weber Grills goes public today

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 05:28 AM PDT

    Here's their S-1.

    Bloomberg reports they drastically cut shares offered and lowered the price and will raise about $250M instead of the $750M they were seeking. Is this an indication of actual weakness or a huge discount on a good growth company?

    But analysts say they're much better off financially when compared with Traeger.

    IMO Traeger marketing, especially product placement, has been much better the last couple of years and Weber should use the IPO money to get on top of that, but according to the Bloomberg link they're going to use it to cash out some investors.

    submitted by /u/merlinsbeers
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    Cloudflare: Q2 Earnings: Reported a loss of $35.5 million in its second quarter.

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 01:49 PM PDT

    • On a per-share basis, the San Francisco-based company said it had a loss of 12 cents. Losses, adjusted for one-time gains and costs, came to 2 cents per share.
    • The results exceeded Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for a loss of 4 cents per share.
    • The web security and content delivery company posted revenue of $152.4 million in the period, which also topped Street forecasts. Seven analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $146.2 million.
    • The company said it expects revenue in the range of $165 million to $166 million for the fiscal third quarter.

    https://www.nhregister.com/business/article/Cloudflare-Q2-Earnings-Snapshot-16367470.php

    submitted by /u/Blueberryroid
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    Ebay stock is a perfect example of why valuation does matter over the long term.

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 09:24 AM PDT

    Ebay has had no revenue growth over the past 10 years. But how has the stock performed over the past 10 years? It has actually performed slightly better than the S and P 500. How can a company that has about the same revenue from 10 years ago still compete with SPY during a bull market? The answer is the valuation of the stock through its earnings and cash flow. The PE ratio and Price to Free Cash Flow are both under 20 right now, just like they were 10 years ago. This has allowed the company to purchase back almost 50% of their shares during this time.

    Looking to the future, Ebay is not going to grow at a fast pace, but literally any growth, even a few percent annualized would have great upside potential for the stock considering it was able to perform well with no growth over and 10 year period and still remain reasonably valued. While the 10 year revenue growth is roughly at 0, the past 5 year growth is at about 5%, and analysts are predicting modest revenue growth over at least the next 5 year period.

    I ran 3 models based on 0%, 2%, and 4% revenue growth per year over the next 7 years to determine what a fair value would be today for the stock to expect a 9 percent return per year. My assumptions included 8% buyback of shares per year, which is in between their 10 and 5 year average of 7-12 percent. I kept their FCF as % of Rev at the historic average of 24%. And I assumed a future PE in 7 years of 15 and a future P/FCF of 19.

    At 0 percent revenue growth, I got a fair value of about $90-100. At 2 percent revenue growth I got a fair value of $100 to 110. And at 4 percent I got $115-120. Based on these numbers the stock is undervalued or at the very least near fair value if you want to be more conservative.

    As a disclaimer, while my assumptions are based on conservative historic performance of the last 10 years and future analyst estimates, they could not materialize in the future. But I do think that the upside potential is much better than the downside potential.

    submitted by /u/Hayden97
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    PENN buying out SCR for $2BIL

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 05:43 AM PDT

    08:13 AM EDT, 08/05/2021 (MT Newswires) -- Penn National Gaming(PENN) , a casino and racetrack operator, said Thursday that it has agreed to acquire Score Media and Gaming(SCR) , a digital media and sports betting and technology company, for $2 billion in cash and stock.

    Under the terms of the deal, Score Media shareholders will get $17 in cash and 0.2398 share of Penn of each Score Media unit, implying a total purchase consideration of $34 per share.

    Upon closing of the transaction, which is set for Q1, Penn National and Score Media shareholders will own 93% and 7%, respectively, of the company's outstanding shares.

    Penn National said it plans to fund the $1 billion cash portion of the purchase price using existing cash, and expects the acquisition to provide adjusted EBITDA accretion by year 2.

    US-listed shares of Canada-based Score Media soared nearly 69% and Penn National gained more than 1% in pre-bell trading activity on Thursday.

    Price: 30.08, Change: +11.94, Percent Change:

    MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

    Trade value is $34 as of now, $17 in cash and .2398 of a PENN share.

    Stock is sitting at 63.45% pre-market and $29.65

    submitted by /u/Glonn
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    $10-20 Stocks kids would be interested in?

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 09:35 AM PDT

    Since bank savings accounts pay squat (and in particular nothing, in my son's UTMA savings), I've set up a UTMA brokerage account for him (he's in grade school). I use this to teach him about finances and the basic principles of the market, and he has fun following the progress of his companies. We require him to invest half of any money he receives from gifts/allowances, etc.

    His birthday is coming up and part of what I plan to do is give him a number of shares corresponding to his age in his brokerage account as part of his gifts.

    The way we work his account, the company should matter to him and be relatable to a kid, so, for example, he has DIS, as he can relate to the notion of the amusement parks, the movies (inclusive of Star Wars), and Disney+ of course. RBLX fits the bill, etc. But those are too expensive per share for what I am trying to do for these purposes...I am looking for suggestions more for companies that might resonate with kids that are currently trading in the $10-20 range per share, so if you have any ideas for me to look into, please share.

    Thanks in advance!

    Edit: Thanks all for the suggestions! A few have questioned why not fractional shares, or why insist on buying the same number shares as his age. This is just a fun aspect of it that I think he'll enjoy. And no matter how capable I may be of doing so, i'm not giving a sub-10-year old a $500-1000 birthday present, lol! (i.e., that's why $50-100+ per share companies are out for this particular exercise). He has other investments and accounts for his benefit that I manage aside from this, so this isn't by any means the significant balance of the investment strategy for him. This is just a bit more for fun and for an educational interaction. I'll probably do this incrementally each year for him. Thanks!

    submitted by /u/rhone404
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    Biden to push for 50% electric vehicles by 2030

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 01:13 PM PDT

    President Biden is set to announce his aim for 50% electric vehicles by 2030. Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman shares the details.

    Video Transcript

    AKIKO FUJITA: The Biden administration is setting ambitious targets to reduce the country's carbon footprint, calling for electric vehicles to make up half of all new US car sales by the end of this decade. Some climate activists, though, saying the goal doesn't address the urgency of the crisis. Let's bring in Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman, who is following this story for us.

    And Rick, you know, we're talking about 50% by the end of the decade. And yet, today, EVs only make up about 3% of new car sales. So how realistic is this?

    RICK NEWMAN: It depends on what the government does, honestly. If the industry were just left to itself, I don't think there's any way we would get to 50% of new vehicle market share by 2030. The cars are still more expensive than gas-powered cars. There's still range issues. But the Biden administration plans to do a lot to incentivize people to buy these vehicles.

    So there's going to be billions of dollars for new charging stations. So there will be charging stations, in theory, wherever you might need one. That's in the bipartisan infrastructure bill that's now in Congress. Biden wants about $170 billion in addition to that. He wants new subsidies for anybody buying an electric vehicle, electrify school buses. He wants subsidies for building battery plants in the United States and all this kind of stuff.

    So this-- these are the reasons that the auto industry really seems quite happy to go along with this. Because they're going to-- they think they're going to get so much funding from the federal government to help them reach this target. By the way, we should point out to everybody watching, this is a target not a requirement. There's no penalty for any automaker that does not get to 50% of all new vehicle sales being electric by 2030. That's just the goal.

    AKIKO FUJITA: And Rick, you've also got some additional measures here laid out in that plan, including limits on tailpipe emissions. I mean, walk me through how significant of a bump that is. Because we all - there were standards set under the Obama administration. The Trump administration rolled that back. Where do things stand now?

    RICK NEWMAN: We don't know exactly. Because Biden has not yet said what he plans to do on that. I mean, just the very briefest history here, Obama, in 2012, raised fuel efficiency standards really aggressively. That would have required about a 5% improvement in fuel economy every year. And then Trump came in, and he slashed that down to about a 1.5% improvement in fuel economy every year.

    Now the reporting is that Biden is going to split the difference basically. He's going to raise fuel economy standards above where Trump left them to what would amount to about 3.7% increase in fuel economy every year. But that- they have not announced that yet. And that takes a long time. That is the-- that's changing a federal regulation, which has to go through months and months of review and things like that.

    And I think one of the things we're probably going to hear the Biden administration say, well, yeah, his guideline for fuel economy is not as aggressive as Obama's was back in 2012. But if we have all these new electric vehicles on the road, that is something that we didn't have really back in 2012. So that should make it easier to reach the 3.7% annual increase, or whatever it turns out to be. But that is down the road still.

    AKIKO FUJITA: OK. Rick Newman, staying on top of the details. Of course, you can read his story on YahooFinance.com as well. Thanks so much for that, Rick.

    submitted by /u/MyFunGa
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    Getting consistent gains of about 500% a year for the past 6 years when backtesting. What am i doing wrong?.

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 03:24 AM PDT

    So i basically trade SPY call spreads and straddles with hedge in vxx using various closing and opening strategies. All of the closing and opening rules are specific and there's no room for errors there.

    I use options table calculator to test the spreads that i make, taking the bid and ask. I also account for IV by taking the standard deviations and converting into percentages when there are differences in IV.

    I've been working on this strategy for about 4 months now, and i cannot think of anything that might be wrong other than the assumption that i will be able to close my SPY spreads at certain levels of losses (even if i give room for it to run more than my loss threshold by quite a bit, profits of more than 250% will persist)

    I'm about to go ahead and start using this strategy in my live account, but i don't want to lose money because there's something out there that i didn't take into consideration. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

    submitted by /u/sheraawwrr
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    10k portfolio idea help!

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 01:44 PM PDT

    I'm looking to invest 10k and make a portfolio made up of 5 stocks and one etf. I'm interested in whether or not you guys believe there will be any drawbacks with this portfolio. I chose Coca Cola & JNJ mainly for the dividends and them being reputable companies with a great track record. Also, they are nice defensive stocks. I chose Ford because they are my favorite automobile manufacturer and an american icon. They're accelerating spending on electric vehicles, and with the announcement today that Biden signed an executive order to make 50% of all new vehicles electric by 2030, they seem like a great option, especially with chip shortages recovering. Spy is my favorite ETF because it's a good indicator of the overall market, and its average APY being 13.55%. In 2020, the YTD return was 18.77%, even after a long year of the coronavirus crash. $AMD and $AAPL are just two, bluechip, very liquid stocks I like. I guess the main thing I see is that there will need to be a lot of reinvesting and probably more diversification. I'm also wondering how I should get my capital split within these six stocks if this is a good strategy.

    Thank you all for helping me on my journey, Sincerely, Love--Yours

    $SPY $F $AMD $AAPL $JNJ $KO

    submitted by /u/Love--Yours
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    Thoughts on $INMD

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 09:40 AM PDT

    I've been looking into inmode which is a Israeli based aesthetic surgery company. Looks like the company has some really nice growth, margins (gross, operating and profit.), strong balance sheet, in a industry set to grow at a 10.9% cagr over the next 5 years. I haven't seen inmd get a lot of attention so I wanted to see what if anyone owns it or has any thoughts.

    submitted by /u/NikTebow
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    $DOCN Q2 beats across the board

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 06:04 AM PDT

    0.10 EPS vs. 0.05 expected 103.8mil revenue vs 98.2mil expected (35% growth YoY)

    Read full results on their IR page https://investors.digitalocean.com/news/news-details/2021/DigitalOcean-Announces-Second-Quarter-2021-Financial-Results/default.aspx

    So happy they IPO'd this year, I love using this company's services. Straight forward cloud computing that is easy to figure out. I use azure at work and have dabbled with aws, they both have a pretty steep learning curve and are a pain to use compared to DO in my opinion. DO won't get any whale customers for a while, but I think they'll see steady growth from small to medium size businesses that have growing cloud needs without a large IT dept.

    submitted by /u/PaperPages
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    Himax ($HIMX) Q2 2021 Earnings - Crushes it again. Record guidance again for Q3 2021

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 06:48 AM PDT

    https://www.himax.com.tw/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/HIMAX_2Q21_Earnings_PR_Final.pdf

    Q2 2021 Earnings Results - 8/5/2021

    • Revenues, gross margin and EPS all reached all-time highs in Q2 2021
    • Revenue: $365.3M, an increase of 18.2% QoQ
    • Gross margin: 47.5%, significantly up from the 40.2% in Q1 2021
    • EPS: 0.624
    • Q2 non-IFRS after-tax profit was $109.1M, or 62.4 cents per diluted ADS.

    Highlights:

    • Capacity shortage remained across all business segments in Q2. Company continued to strategically allocate assessible capacity favoring high margin product areas and key customers
    • Himax is the pioneer in the world of automotive TDDI development, having started the first generation TDDI mass production as early as the Q2 2019. Further upgraded its design and now Himax's Gen 2 TDDI for automotive has officially entered into mass production in Q3 with dominating design-win coverage across literally all display makers, numerous Tier-1 players and leading car manufactures across all automotive markets
    • In view of the foundry shortage and growing demand, the Company has entered into strategic agreements with foundry partners to cover both short-term and long-term needs. Likewise, Company is entering into strategic agreements with customers, including indirect end customers, who wish to secure IC supplies. All such contractual arrangements will help boost Himax's future growth prospect and improve earnings visibility. Looking further ahead, Himax expectsto also secure more capacity for 2022 as compared to 2021

    Q3 2021 Guidance:

    • Revenues to Increase by 13% to 17% sequentially (QoQ)
    • Gross Margin is expected to be in the range of 50.5% to 52.0%
    • EPS to be around 75.0 Cents to 81.0 Cents

    RECENT EARNINGS HISTORY:

    GUIDANCE: Q3 2021 Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020
    Revenue $413 - $427 M $365.3 M* $309 M* $276 M* $240 M * $187 M
    EPS .75 - .81 .62* .38* .20 .05 .01
    Gross Margin 50.5 - 52.0% 47.5% 40.2%* 31.2%* 22.3% 21.0%

    \All-time high*

    Dividend:

    Next year's dividend payment is expected to be over $1.50 per share, based on Q2 results.

    submitted by /u/SniXSniPe
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    Psychedelic pharmaceutical company Cybin $CYBN listed on NYSE American today

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 07:38 AM PDT

    Big news for the psychedelic pharmaceuticals industry. If you missed the cannabis boom now's the time to get in for round 2.

    submitted by /u/Appropriate-Hunt-897
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    Lemonade - long term

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 09:33 AM PDT

    Hi, wanted to get the groups thoughts on Lemonade. I own 50 shares at an average purchase price of ~110. Long-term I see this stock as a potential market disruptor which is why I made the initial investment. They had a poor Q2 and the market ripped the stock as expected. Anyone else an investor thinking of cutting their losses? This is not money I need and if I sold out I'd reinvest.

    Just looking for some pros and cons.

    submitted by /u/PulpFicti0n
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    Why is zymergen up 75% today after falling 75% yesterday?

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 08:09 AM PDT

    Zymergen reported that they have technical issues product won't make any revenue for next year. So stock tanked 75% but why is up by 75% today?

    ARKG bought 2.5 million shares yesterday. But is this gain of 75% again due to ARK buying up today?

    Looks like a big gamble since Zymergen could lose customers and bankrupt soon. Or does ARK have some insider information?

    submitted by /u/mrcet007
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    EV Battery Tech Announces the Launch of Two IoniX Pro Electric Vehicles ($CRYBF/ $ACDC.CN)

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 12:08 PM PDT

    VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Aug. 05, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Extreme Vehicle Battery Technologies Corp. (the "Company" or "EV Battery Tech") (CSE: ACDC) is pleased to announce the launch of its IoniX Pro Trilogy Vision Electric Vehicle (EV) line which is being developed in collaboration with Daymak International Inc. ("Daymak"), further to its partnership agreement announced on February 8, 2021 and the new amending agreement announced August 4, 2021 which granted EV Battery Tech and IoniX Pro Battery Technologies Inc. ("IoniX Pro"), exclusive worldwide rights to build an EV based on the Daymak Spiritus.

    The IoniX Pro Trilogy Vision and Vision X (together, the "Trilogy Line") are expected to be powered by the Daymak powertrain and EV Battery Tech's patented battery technology. The Trilogy Line vehicles are expected to be the first EVs designed and built with smart grid integration in mind. The combination of Daymak's proven and best-selling powertrain, plus EV Battery Tech's revolutionary battery technology and built-in system that utilizes its proprietary blockchain technology, has set the stage for one of the fastest and most eco-friendly EVs on the market.

    The Company is working in tandem with Daymak, the largest light electric vehicle (LEV) distributor in Canada to exclusively develop the Trilogy Line. Together with Daymak, the Company's subsidiary, IoniX Pro, is expected to design and build both introductory models of the Trilogy Line, with a fully functional prototype expected to be completed in early 2022 and scheduled consumer delivery date to commence in 2023.

    "The Trilogy Line has been designed by some of the best and brightest individuals in the automotive and electric vehicle industries, to bring both performance and luxury to a, thrilling, fun and eco-efficient electric vehicle," commented EV Battery Tech CEO, Bryson Goodwin.

    Both the Company and IoniX Pro will leverage their intellectual horsepower, including: Daymak CEO, Aldo Baiocchi, the President of Daymak who was responsible for the Daymak LEV designs; Tobias Duschl, who served as a vice president at Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA); Gabriel Iosif, who served as an engineer at Ferrari N.V.; and Robert Abenante, the Chief Innovation Officer at IoniX Pro who was responsible for the IoniX Pro product designs.

    "I feel honoured to be working with the dream team on this exciting project. As an automotive enthusiast, the Trilogy Line has been a true passion project for me and working with a team of ex Tesla and Ferrari members, alongside Daymak's visionary leader Aldo, has been icing on the cake," commented Robert Abenante, Chief Innovation Officer for IoniX Pro.

    "The first prototypes are expected to feature our patented AI-powered battery technology, coupled with the blockchain-based smart grid integration for the energy systems, to create a vehicle that is expected to provide industry leading performance, as well as market redefining green-tech solutions," continued Mr. Abenante.

    Trilogy Line Descriptions:

    Trilogy Vision – Launching the everyday commuter into the future; this three-wheel, two-seater EV is expected to: (i) have a top speed of 85 mph, (ii) provide up to 185 miles of range, and (iii) feature IoniX Pro AI-powered battery system with a charge time of under one hour. Estimated MSRP USD $19,999.

    Trilogy Vision X – The Smart Supercar; this three-wheel, autonomous-enabled convertible is expected: (i) to accelerate 0-60 mph in 1.8 seconds, (ii) provide up to 300 miles of range, and (iii) have 5G connectivity, as well as smart data capabilities that enhance rider experience. The Trilogy Vision X is expected to feature Ionix Pro AI-powered battery system and is expected to have a charge time of under one hour. Estimated MSRP USD $149,999.

    "The Trilogy Line is expected to be a leap forward for the EV industry and we are very proud to work closely with EV Battery Tech and IoniX Pro to bring forward these electric cars," remarked Aldo Baiocchi, President of Daymak.

    "The Trilogy Line is built on Daymak's many patents, years of design, meticulous testing and built for fun and excitement while being one of the most eco friendly vehicles on the road," concluded Mr. Baiocchi.

    submitted by /u/MyFunGa
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    Here is a Market Recap for today Thursday, August 5, 2021

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 01:58 PM PDT

    PsychoMarket Recap - Thursday, August 5, 2021

    After closing mixed yesterday, stocks firmly rose today as market participants digested more corporate earnings reports and the Weekly Unemployment Report, which showed improvement. Tomorrow, the Department of Labor will release it's July Unemployment Report. This report is set to be a wild card, with analyst estimates ranging wildly from ADP estimating an addition of 330,000 jobs to Bloomberg economists estimate of 845,000 jobs added. We'll see tomorrow.

    The three major indexes powered higher today, with both the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (QQQ) recording fresh intraday all-time highs. The Dow Jones (DIA) closed 0.75% higher and is marginally below it's previous all-time high. The Russell 2000 (IWM), which tracks the performance of small-cap stocks, closed 1.8% higher.

    ADP, a leading payroll and human services software company, released its July 2021 Employment Report, which estimated that private employers added only 330,000 jobs in July, less than half the 690,000 gain expected by economists. While ADP's estimates aren't 100% accurate, it sets up a negative backdrop for the July Jobs Report set to be released tomorrow. As I said earlier, estimates between economists range wildly, so we'll just have to wait and see how the report unfolds.

    So far, 59% of the companies in the S&P 500 (SPY) have reported Q2 earnings, with 88% of these beating analyst expectations, according to FactSet. This quarter is shaping up to be another record-breaking one, with corporate earnings growth rate expected to accelerate 85% year-on-year, which would be the biggest jump since the Q4 2009.

    However, it is important to note that, despite beating earnings expectations, a number of these companies have pulled back, with tepid outlooks moving forward overshadowing strong results. Moving forward, given that most companies have so far exceeded pre-pandemic levels and the current quarter has an easy comparison to last year, expectations for growth are inevitably going to moderate. This said, I think the pullback in some stocks following earnings is an overreaction.

    Highlights

    • The Weekly Unemployment Report came in roughly in-line with analyst expectations
      • First time jobless claims: 385,000 vs 383,000 expected
      • Continuing Claims 2.93 million vs 3 million
    • The rally in Robinhood (HOOD) stopped, with the stock dropping more than 27% today, very crazy movement in this stock the last few days. On the other hand, shares of "meme stocks" advanced after falling a few days in a row.
    • Uber (UBER) posted a wider than expected loss for Q2. This bodes bad for the company since rival Lyft (LYFT) unexpectedly posted a profit last quarter.
    • Shares of Etsy (ETSY) sank 10% after the company posted slightly disappointed during earnings.
    • Shares of DataDog (DDOG) gapped up after the company smashed earnings estimates
    • Penn National Gaming (PENN) acquired Score Media (SCR), the largest sports media app in Canada and the third largest in the US for $2 billion in cash and stock. Jay Snowden, President and CEO said of the acquisition, "theScore's unique media platform and modern, state-of-the art technology is a powerful complement to the reach of Barstool Sports and its popular personalities and content. We are now uniquely positioned to seamlessly serve our customers with the most powerful ecosystem of sports, gaming and media in North America, ultimately creating a community that doesn't currently exist." I personally like this stock.
    • In a White House event, the Biden administration and auto makers committed to try and get EV sales to make up 50% of cars sold in the US by 2030, contingent on the government support for the transition.
    • **Please note that current stock price was written during the session and may not reflect closing prices*\*
    • AbbVie (ABBV) target raised by Argus from $130 to $140 at Buy. Stock currently around $115.
    • AmerisourceBergen (ABC) target raised by Robert W Baird from $156 to $162 at Outperform. Stock currently around $122
    • Costco (COST) with a host of target raises. Consensus price target $480 at Overweight. Stock currently around $443
    • CVS target raised by Deutsche Bank from $95 to $101 at Buy. Stock currently around $80
    • DataDog (DDOG) target raised by Needham & Co from $150 to $173 at Buy. Stock currently around $132
    • Electronic Arts (EA) with a host of target raises. Consensus price target $175 at Buy. Stock currently around $137
    • Equitable (EQH) target raised by Morgan Stanley from $45 to $46 at Overweight. Stock currently around $32
    • GoDaddy (GDDY) with two target raises. Stock currently around $73
      • Raymond James from $107 to $108 at Strong-Buy
      • Wedbush from $92 to $108 at Outperform
    • Lyft (LYFT) target raised by Citigroup from $80 to $88 at Buy. Stock currently around $52
    • Regeneron Pharma (REGN) Target raised by Piper Sandler from $650 to $675 at Overweight. Stock currently around $602
    • Roku (ROKU) target raised by DA Davidson from $560 to $600 at Buy. Stock currently around $403
    • Western Digital (WDC) with four target raises. Stock currently around $67
      • Rosenblatt Securities from $70 to $80 at Outperform
      • Mizuho from $90 to $92 at Buy
      • Wedbush from $90 to $95 at Outperform
      • Craig Hallum from $95 to $101 at Buy.

    "Rather fail with honor than succeed by fraud." Sophocles

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
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    What are your thoughts on being able to buy/trade US stocks globally and 24/7?

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 01:46 PM PDT

    Lets say you dont live in the US and you would like to buy stocks in the US stock market. One you would have to adhere to the timings of the US stock market and second you would have to have access to some place that would allow you to buy the stocks. What if there was a way to buy and trade stocks 24/7 and you can do it with the convenience of your own device? what are your thoughts do you think this is possible? are you open to this idea?

    submitted by /u/zoronoa24
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    Etsy falls 13% after releasing Q2 2021 results

    Posted: 04 Aug 2021 03:18 PM PDT

    https://investors.etsy.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2021/Etsy-Inc.-Reports-Second-Quarter-2021-Results/default.aspx

    • Revenue: $528.9 million vs. $525.8 million expected and $428.7 million Y/Y

    • Earnings per share: 68 cents vs. 64 cents expected and 75 cents Y/Y

    I think the biggest thing that stands out from this earnings report is the disappointing revenue guidance. They're forecasting a 12.5% YoY growth in revenue, but actually a slight decline in QoQ revenue. They are still not providing full-year revenue forecast.

    Etsy has moved explosively upwards throughout the pandemic, but this may be the start of a sizeable turnaround. Is this a bump in the road or a reversal?

    submitted by /u/GustavGuiermo
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    SCR Stock - Can Someone Explain?

    Posted: 05 Aug 2021 06:31 AM PDT

    I bought 55 shares of SCR right when Canada passed the legislation that legalized gambling at around $25 per share. It pretty much immediately tanked after that as low as $14, and I cost averaged down to $23.

    Woke up to see that Penn agreed to acquire them which drove the price up to around $29 currently. After being down $700, I'm now up $350. I read that in this acquisition, SCR shareholders will get $17 + .223 shares of Penn stock per SCR share they own. I am an amateur investor at best so looking for some clarity on what that really means. Does that mean it's better to just hold off and wait for the full acquisition to go through? or is it better to take the gains now and sell. Thanks in advance for the input.

    submitted by /u/bigpapi7
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