Stocks - Is there any world where Rivian and Lucid don't just go bankrupt |
- Is there any world where Rivian and Lucid don't just go bankrupt
- How does 5% inflation change your thinking?
- If predicting the market is impossible then what should stock investors rely on?
- Why do people know it, but don't own it?
- How can a stock be labelled "strong buy" even though the 1yr price target is - %?
- Is this a millennial market? Do you also notice extreme volatility never seen before even in the 90s? Has it shaped your trades? How?
- What is the lowest conviction stock you own and why?
- Did I miss something? BILL was up 30% This Friday is up 1,000% from 20s to near 300 in 18 months? Any opinions? 27 Billion dollar company?
- VOO/SPY + VT — why is this more popular than VOO/SPY + VXUS?
- Looking up old stocks
- The Weekly DD - Skillz Inc (SKLZ - Full Stock Analysis): E-gaming for non-gamers
- Takeaway into $AMRN's German launch 13 days from now
- Stocks least affected by Covid crash last year
- When a crash/correction happens, how should one prioritize which stocks to DCA first?
- Upcoming anticipated "4th wave"stock benefactor
- Buying stocks after hours?
- Is AT&T a good investment due to its high dividend yield and very low volatility?
- HKEX: Strategy of buying on open when in different timezone and without an order book
- $SLQT SelectQuote stock with significant upward potential High PT of $39
- Question regarding investing. If I invested $1000 into a company that has a 35% increase every three months. Would I make $350 if I sold?
- Question about transferring brokerages with margin
- Are Defense Stocks even worth it anymore?
| Is there any world where Rivian and Lucid don't just go bankrupt Posted: 29 Aug 2021 03:51 AM PDT Maybe I don't get it. Scaling up a new automotive business seems to be insanely hard. Tesla succeeding seems to be an almost unprecedented case. There were significant doubts about Tesla's ability to survive when they were already making several hundred thousands of vehicles every year, and arguably they only made it thanks to regulatory credits (which will become less and less relevant) and big capital infusions. Rivian and Lucid have surely already spent significant amounts just on developing the cars, without delivering a single one so far. The capital required to build and scale up factories will be absolutely gigantic, all in hopes of catching up to both Tesla (the cool new brand) and traditional manufacturers (with scale and lots of money). I just don't see how they manage to do what Tesla did and actually catch up with the field. Is there any scenario where these companies actually become a huge success and manage to justify their valuation? [link] [comments]  |
| How does 5% inflation change your thinking? Posted: 28 Aug 2021 11:05 PM PDT US inflation: May 4.99%, June 5.39%, July 5.37% Nothing but stocks come close to keeping your head above water. Do you believe it's temporary? How does it change your portfolio or your thinking if its not? What if it goes even higher? [link] [comments]  |
| If predicting the market is impossible then what should stock investors rely on? Posted: 29 Aug 2021 09:20 AM PDT History has shown that predicting the market with 100% accuracy is not feasible. So what do you guys base your buying/selling decisions off? It seems as if everyone has their own strategy but I'd be interested in seeing what reddit thinks of this? [link] [comments]  |
| Why do people know it, but don't own it? Posted: 29 Aug 2021 12:08 PM PDT People who work as an Stock Analyst, I understand that they're paid to do their research for companies and sectors, but for people not working as an analyst and post extensive DD, analysis, and price prediction/expectation, at the end of their debrief, they disclose that they don't own any shares of this company. If someone posts a very bullish analysis for a company but doesn't own any shares, why aren't they buying? [link] [comments]  |
| How can a stock be labelled "strong buy" even though the 1yr price target is - %? Posted: 29 Aug 2021 04:14 AM PDT I've recently started investing on the long term. I was going through my weekly check up on my portfolio and I noticed some of the predictions didn't match the rating. For example I have ALB which is currently at an all time high. However all predictions point for the 1yr target price to be below its current price. Wouldn't it be more worth it for me to sell it now and buy it again when the 1yr target price is higher than the current valuation? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 28 Aug 2021 07:49 PM PDT This market more than ever is irrational. I have been trading since late 1994 and have been thru the dot com crash.. Greenspan's "Irrational Exuberance", 9/11 when the market was shut down for days, 2008 crash and last year's covid.. I swear I have never seen anything even close to this! Back in the late 90s and even when the Nasdaq crashed in March of 2000, you would have a handful of stocks down 10-20% in a single day. You may have a handful of stocks with volume over 10 million.. Check the history! Now you have stocks up 200% and down the next day 50% I cant mention the ticker here or I will get banned. But there are many stocks that go down 15-20% on nothing! SLQT went down 50% on a slight miss Thursday! I feel now more than ever there are gamblers everywhere. Everyone piles on on positive or negative news quickly...because of social media.. We know..... So my question is, has it changed the way you trade/invest and how? For myself I am quickly adapting........ I am actually trading more momentum stocks than I ever traded before.. Companies with horrible financials... which is hard for me, but we have to adapt or get killed on SLQT?? Please share ideas, I am trying to adapt as quickly as possible too! [link] [comments]  |
| What is the lowest conviction stock you own and why? Posted: 29 Aug 2021 01:27 PM PDT There have been threads about the highest conviction stock picks. I think the opposite is also interesting. Among the stocks that you own - what is your lowest conviction stock? Why haven't you sold it yet? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 29 Aug 2021 08:37 AM PDT Hello everyone and happy Sunday. Thank you for taking the time to read the post. So BILL, or bill.com tries to make payroll, HR tasks much easier. They are cloud based and do AI setup for accounting/financials. I have traded this in the past but below 60 a little over a year ago. Does anyone have any ideas what is going on? I am thinking of shorting this… ideas? If you take a look at form 4 for CEO, the CFO, general council and the secretary are selling shares! They were even selling 100 dollars below the 283 close Friday. It took INTU many years to be a 27 billion dollar company.. They actually missed estimates with a loss of 7 cents missing by 3 cents. Revenue was 78 million growth of 86%... Not earnings were 78 million, sales! They lost 6.2 million on these sales. The forecast for the year is to lose 10-20 million dollars…. The outlook on the next quarter is a loss of 3-5 million.. This is a 27 billion dollar company that even sees full next years sales at 476 to 480 million. They are expected to lose 88-92 cents a share that's about 75 million…. Am I missing something here? Does anyone follow the company have thoughts on why this is not a good short? Any ideas would be much appreciated. [link] [comments]  |
| VOO/SPY + VT — why is this more popular than VOO/SPY + VXUS? Posted: 29 Aug 2021 06:43 AM PDT Wouldn't it make more sense to combine the latter in your portfolio? On here and other investing subs I see the first combo way more frequently, but if you're investing in a pure American ETF then wouldn't it make more sense to supplement that with a solely non-USA ETF like VXUS? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 29 Aug 2021 11:06 AM PDT Hello all. I have some old Disney stock paper certificates from around thirty years ago. Is there a resource where I can look them up by date and/or cusip number to see which splits applied to them and current value? Thanks in advance for anyone who can help. [link] [comments]  |
| The Weekly DD - Skillz Inc (SKLZ - Full Stock Analysis): E-gaming for non-gamers Posted: 29 Aug 2021 08:08 AM PDT Not a gaming companySKLZ is a mobile tournament platform. Basically, they take competitive mobile games, and create some sort of tournament experience for those games with a prize pool. They provide this service through an API (application program interface). Basically, their product goes like this:
It is extremely important to note that SKLZ's product is only this tournament software package. They do not develop any mobile games themselves and are entirely reliant on 3rd parties to choose to use their software. The mobile gaming marketMobile gaming accounts for over 50% of all video gaming revenue worldwide. In the US, one of the largest gaming markets in the world, mobile gaming revenue reached ~$11B in 2020. It's expected that the global share of mobile gaming will continue to rise even in relation to the rest of global gaming growth. In the US specifically, there has been an increased in global mobile gaming revenue share. Over the years, it has overtaken Japan as the largest mobile gaming market globally. Demographics The demographics of mobile gaming has been rapidly changing over the years and, especially in the US, is no longer what one would traditionally expect. For example, children and young adults aged 16-24 no longer make up the majority of mobile gamers. In fact, over a third of all mobile gamers are aged 45+. Furthermore, while 66% of men play mobile games, 70% of women play mobile games. Market research into gaming and spend indicate that older adults spend both more money and time in video games. Thus, the most valuable demographic for mobile gaming is actually the female aged 45+ market. Popular game trends The most popular category of games is the "hyper-casual" games where users download ten times more games in that category than average. The most profitable mobile games in North America are actually puzzle games capturing 22% of the total North American mobile gaming revenue. AR (augmented reality) /Location-based games represent the smallest market in terms of North American revenue at (2.83%). Where SKLZ standsThe bull case SKLZ is appropriately positioned to capture the correct demographic of gamers for the highest revenue. According to their 10-K, over 50% of their users are 45+ with ~10% of their users being aged 18-25. Furthermore, the majority of their users are women. Beyond that, gamers who use the SKLZ platform are spending more time on the game or other SKLZ games than on TikTok, Facebook, or YouTube. They spend over 3x the amount of time they would spend on a SKLZ game than an average mobile game! They are still on track for their India expansion which represents a massive injection of revenue possible. Furthermore, SKLZ is attempting to expand out of card games and into racing, shooting, and battle-royale type games as well. Lastly, SKLZ's current per-user revenue has increased by over 60%. They are successfully monetizing their current user-base and increasing the amount of revenues they gain from that user-base. The bear case Most recently in Q2 2021, nearly three-quarters of SKLZ's revenues comes from just 3 games: Solitaire Cube, 21 Blitz, and Blackout Bingo. In general, a handful of games has contributed to the majority of SKLZ's revenues and this has remained consistent over the past 5 years! This represents a significant risk as it shows that SKLZ is not able to innovate away from its cash cows and as the mobile games grow out of popularity, SKLZ will not have any way to make up for lost revenues. SKLZ is paying record amounts of money in terms of customer acquisition through marketing. However, their monthly active users is actually dropping from 2020 to 2021. In fact, SKLZ has currently spent more in marketing than the previous year's total revenues! Yet, they are losing users. This is extremely worrisome about SKLZ's ability to continue their rapid growth. Lastly, SKLZ has currently only proven its market in a small segment of the mobile market. SKLZ, by definition of its platform, must operate in player vs. player games (one of the most unpopular categories of mobile gaming) which accounts for around 15% of the market. Furthermore, SKLZ has only proven itself in the arcade gaming market which accounts for 5% of North America's revenue market. In general, SKLZ has only proven themselves in a sliver of the mobile gaming market. The financialsIncome statement Revenue growth in SKLZ continues to be extremely impressive, doubling every year (and on track to double again this year). However, we are also seeing marketing costs increase at more than the rate of revenues which is an extremely worrisome rate. Marketing has increased spend by over 100% per year and are on track to far exceed that this year. This is especially worrisome as it means that SKLZ is spending more dollars in marketing than its receiving back because of the marketing. Also, because this is a multi-year trend, it doesn't look like marketing is paying off even in the long term. As a result, SKLZ is losing money at an increasing rate every year. Balance sheet SKLZ sports a decently healthy balance sheet. It has over $700M in current assets with only $125M of current liabilities. This leaves SKLZ with $575M of additional cash or other liquid assets to operate with. While this is a lot of money, SKLZ is on track to burn over $300M in net losses in 2021 which will reduce this amount by over one half. Furthermore, the reason SKLZ has such a high current asset is because it has already sold additional stock in order to finance its operations. In 2021, SKLZ raised over $400M by offering new stock. Cash flow SKLZ has awful cash flows due to it burning money through its operations. It's only positive cash flow over the past few years has been through financing, which means that SKLZ survives only by offering additional shares and using that money in its operations. This should be a glaring red flag for any current investor in SKLZ. The OutlookSKLZ has an interesting position to capture a high value demographic within the mobile gaming market. However, they are doing so within the smallest categories that are popular within their demographic. They have the ability to expand into other categories, but as they are not a mobile game development company, they aren't able to deliberately expand into other types of games. They must depend on 3rd party developers choosing to use their platform while developing more popular categories of games for them. What is most worrisome for me is their cash losses and their inability to sustain their operations without additional financing activity. I would expect SKLZ to further dilute their stock (and drag down their stock price) in order to finance their operations next year as well. Lastly, I am uncertain about SKLZ's ability to capture other hit games beyond their current cash cows. Once more, SKLZ has little control of this as they do not build games themselves and are reliant on the market choosing them with popular games. In this way, there is a great risk that their current cash cows will get phased out due to age and the newer games will not utilize SKLZ as a platform. If that happens, SKLZ will lose 75% of its revenues. [link] [comments]  |
| Takeaway into $AMRN's German launch 13 days from now Posted: 29 Aug 2021 09:24 AM PDT Here is the Prepare-IT 1 COVID study Link My take away: Nothing big, but does show Vascepa is extermely safe for people. And sets up for future studies in other areas. What I think will happen Monday US open My take away: Will be pressured down, but since upcoming catalysts coming, could be a buying opportunity. Frankfurt market will be interesting to watch. Next Catalyst 1: Prepare-IT 2 COVID study My take away: Cardio-Link was a similar study on a smaller scale that showed promising results. Supposedly Prepare-IT 2 should finish up this Monday. When we get the results who knows. Next Catalyst 2: German launch 13 days from now Link My take away: Amarin will have to PR the launch sooner or later. Plus the more info for rest of EU at launch date. Prediction: $PFE will work with AMRN to promote throughout EU. Kind of how they started with in Canada. LinkAnd especially with the recent results of from the REDUCE-IT trial Link which showed to reduce ischemic events in patients with prior heart attacks GLTA stay frosty. [link] [comments]  |
| Stocks least affected by Covid crash last year Posted: 29 Aug 2021 04:33 AM PDT Has anyone done an analysis of stocks that were least affected by the Covid Crash last year? I don't mean stocks that recovered the best or gained the most since, but stocks that were unperturbed as everything else tanked. [link] [comments]  |
| When a crash/correction happens, how should one prioritize which stocks to DCA first? Posted: 29 Aug 2021 11:39 AM PDT Title says it all, when the inevitable red days are raining upon us which, which are the best plays (generally speaking) to dollar cost average in the stock market? Should I focus on blue chip tech first, or rather blue chip retail shops, maybe some blue chip mining companies? [link] [comments]  |
| Upcoming anticipated "4th wave"stock benefactor Posted: 29 Aug 2021 07:57 AM PDT There are talks of OPEC negating the previously agreed upon oil production increases due to COVID fears. Aside from that, no relieve in chip shortages in sight for many automobile producers and speculations of triple digits shipping cost increase is expected in this upcoming holiday season. What are your top pick for the next 3-6 months? What are some good courier/transpo companies out there ripe for a rally? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 29 Aug 2021 07:37 AM PDT Heard all the hype about Affirm and wondered if I should buy before markets open? (How does that work, would I pay what the price was on friday or the monday price? Again apologizes for dumb question trying to self teach myself everything and really get into this) [link] [comments]  |
| Is AT&T a good investment due to its high dividend yield and very low volatility? Posted: 29 Aug 2021 03:32 AM PDT I have some money put aside that I want to invest long term. I want to invest in Apple and Microsoft due to their growth and reliability but also like the look of AT&Ts dividend yield. It stands at 27$ a share and dividend yield of 7.67%. Also with such low volatility in the market it's seems even if it did decrease in value over a longer period, the dividends would probably turn over a profit. Any ideas/information are welcome. [link] [comments]  |
| HKEX: Strategy of buying on open when in different timezone and without an order book Posted: 29 Aug 2021 07:02 AM PDT Hi, I'm looking into an HK small-cap stock that had a turnover of 2M HKD on the last trading day. I'd like to try to buy it tomorrow, but I don't know what will be the price of an opening. The last trading day it had a volatility of 5.2%. I don't have an access to the order book, and I don't know what would be the price on opening. Assuming that I see that the last bids were 6.11 and last ask 6.13, I'm thinking to: - put a bid on 6.15, but as I don't know the bid/ask prices and volumes on tomorrow's opening, I don't know if it would be filled. - another strategy would be to put a market order, but that would be invoked on unfavorable terms... As I'm located in Europe GMT time zone, it is inconvenient to be awake on an opening. I don't have an access to the order book. Any suggestions? [link] [comments]  |
| $SLQT SelectQuote stock with significant upward potential High PT of $39 Posted: 29 Aug 2021 02:16 PM PDT $SLQT : Founded in 1985, SelectQuote (NYSE: SLQT) provides solutions that help consumers protect their most valuable assets: their families, health and property. The company pioneered the direct-to-consumer model of providing unbiased comparisons from multiple, highly-rated insurance companies allowing consumers to choose the policy and terms that best meet their unique needs. Two foundational pillars underpin SelectQuote's success: a force of more than 1,000 highly-trained and skilled agents who provide a consultative needs analysis for every consumer, and proprietary technology that sources, scores, and routes high-quality sales leads. The company has three core business lines: SelectQuote Senior, SelectQuote Life and SelectQuote Auto and Home. SelectQuote Senior, the largest and fastest-growing business, serves the needs of a demographic that sees 10,000 people turn 65 each day with a range of Medicare Advantage and Medicare Supplement plans from 15 leading, nationally-recognized carriers, as well as prescription drug plan, dental, vision and hearing plans. P.S: Wrote this on WSB on Thursday and it was already correcting on Friday with 5% increase. I expected it go up quicker. Options premiums are extremely cheaper for now making it still a great play but in short term and long term. Update: Just last month 21% or so SI increase and new rules around margin requirements in September can even speed up recovery. This Stock caught my eye today when it dropped by 45% due to 0.02 EPS report in comparison to 0.04 expected. Current buy rating is 89% with High PT of $39 and lowest of $13 with median of $27.5 ( https://money.cnn.com/quote/forecast/forecast.html?symb=SLQT#:~:text=Stock%20Price%20Forecast,the%20last%20price%20of%2014.31.) Firm did IPO last year and is doing well considering the following. Revenue $938 million, up 76% year over year Adjusted EBITDA of $228 million, up 48% over last year Core senior business, ended the fiscal year with revenues of $729 million, up 101%, and adjusted EBITDA of $244 million, up 57%. SelectQuote's quarterly revenue was up 33.2% compared to the same quarter last year. Blackrock and Vanguard are the top shareholders SelectQuote has a market capitalization of $1.29 billion and generates $531.52 million in revenue each year. The company earns $81.15 million in net income (profit) each year or ($0.16) on an earnings per share basis Short interest went up by 21.9% to 5 million shares (Total SI 4.6%) in August- reason for price drop P.S: I intended to buy 2000 calls but ended up with 1250. if I am able to liquidate some of my positions for this stock, will buy more. My reason is the market over reaction to EPS. Also being in healthcare consulting, I know how the senior market business is booming and is projected to even grow more in future. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 29 Aug 2021 01:50 PM PDT I'm trying to understand how the price change percentages work. Meaning that if I knew Google was going to increase every 3 months by 18% would it be silly for me to invest my savings in it for say 6 months and then sell? Am I missing something or does it generally work like this? If I invest $50,000, would it be around $100,000 if I decided to sell at the end of the year? I'm brand new to this! Everything helps, thank you guys so much! [link] [comments]  |
| Question about transferring brokerages with margin Posted: 29 Aug 2021 09:20 AM PDT I have a margin account that I would like to move to a new brokerage. While I had hoped to learn more before I initiated the transfer, an issue with my current brokerage made me realize I will lose a lot of money if I keep my account there. I use significant margin and selling would cause huge tax implications. I have TDA, Etrade, and Webull accounts already open that I could transfer into. Based on my experience and the wiki, TDA seems like the obvious choice however I've read that TDA has different margin requirements and I'm concerned moving there might actually result in losing margin flexibility or a margin call. The move could be a short term solution if I decide to open a new account that better fits the day trading approach I use the current account for. (Day trading brokerage suggestions welcome as well.) Does anyone have any experience or advice on moving brokerages while maintaining the margin debt? [link] [comments]  |
| Are Defense Stocks even worth it anymore? Posted: 29 Aug 2021 11:44 AM PDT I'm looking to Leidos and KRATOS for long term investing, and I understand that combat AOs are one the primary factors of stock performance shifts, but nowadays.. are they even worth it? Is it possible to keep up with Pentagon stats and briefs to better dictate stock performance? [link] [comments]  |
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