Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - May 06, 2021 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - May 06, 2021
- I started investing in February 2021. How do I ride out the storm when im losing my own initial investment?
- Has tech got you down? Consider commodities, in particular, steel. For a variety of reasons:
- I’m up 80% YoY- and learned I don’t know anything
- New Investors: The average return of the stock market is 10% per year over time.
- U.S. Coast Guard Renews Partnership with Palantir to Fight COVID-19
- U.S. Space Force's Space and Missile Systems Center has awarded a firm-fixed price contract to Palantir
- I bought into GOOG instead of GOOGL. Did I make a mistake here?
- How you should start with investing
- VIAC is very undervalued in an overvalued market and just had an amazing earnings report
- ARK funds - time to take gains and move elsewhere or ride it out?
- Anyone else extremely bullish on Disney?
- Cloudflare - jump in, or wait?
- Here is a Market Recap for today Thursday, May 6, 2021
- What are your thoughts on starting a position on Pinterest (PINS) now?
- Cloudflare ($NET) Announces First Quarter 2021 Financial Results
- Did I make a mistake buying RKT?
- What's your opinion on the ARK funds at this time?
- Reuters on electric vehicle maker Volkswagen: VW throws down the emissions gauntlet (VOW, VWAGY)
- Shouldn't 10 Year Bond Rates and Precious Metals Price Move in the similar direction?
- Joining the market at record highs
- FSTLY down 23%
- Genius Sports ($GENI) - Picks and Shovels of the Sports Betting Industry
- JP Morgan Dividend
- RKT reports 91% adjusted revenue growth and 170% adjusted net income growth YoY. Q2 outlook dim - shares down 14% in after hours.
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - May 06, 2021 Posted: 06 May 2021 02:30 AM PDT This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on stock options, but if options aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against options here and not in the current post. Some helpful day to day links, including news:
Required info to start understanding options:
See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki: If you have a basic question, for example "what is delta," then google "investopedia delta" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 May 2021 05:17 AM PDT I didnt get to invest in 2020. I finally started in Feb this year after my friends kept telling me how easy it was to make money in stock market all their stocks were up at least 50%. So I am not sitting on gains. With how the charts on many of the tech/growth stocks look like. It is looking like I bought all my tech stocks at their ATH many of them are now down at least 50%. How do I ride this out? It feels like things are going to worse. And it also isn't the easy mode my friends were talking about they had in 2020. I'd feel better if it was gains I was losing and had that cushion. Im currently down 40%. It would be worse but I got lucky with the Dog coin and put some of my money in SPY/VOO. [link] [comments]  |
| Has tech got you down? Consider commodities, in particular, steel. For a variety of reasons: Posted: 06 May 2021 07:01 AM PDT Steel manufacturing companies are set to make record profits in the next few years. Demand is up huge. The post-COVID boom is starting. The rotation out of tech is under way. And analysts are finally coming to their senses and raising estimates of steel companies, because: Steel prices are obscenely high These are literally record high steel prices. This mean serious profit. Imagine if people were willing to pay Apple 2 to 3 times as much for an iPhone. Price of steel 2009 – 2021 And this is not just for the moment, but for the rest of the year and beyond. There are record high steel futures as well, and they are only rising. Future steel futures This means that people expect steel prices to be high in the future. They are paying these prices right now for steel months away, because they expect this locked-in price to be cheaper than the actual price of steel (however many months/years away). Inflation The hot topic right now. Global economic rebound is fueling a blistering commodities rally. Will the Fed be able to control inflation? Many expect inflation to climb regardless as there has been so much money printed. During periods of high inflation, Michael Burry thinks you want to be in real estate and commodities. And even if inflation doesn't cross 3%, the fear of it will drive people to hedge part of their portfolio in commodities. China's rebate In 2020, China produced 56.5% of the world's steel. This was helped by a 13% rebate on all steel exported. Sell steel for $100, get $100 from the buyer and $13 from the government. But now China wants to cut their steel production to deal with smog. Starting May 1st 2021 (6 days ago!), there is a now 0% import tariff & 20-25% export tariff on materials. This is great news for vertically integrated steel companies like CLF and MT than mine their own ore. Not great news for other steel companies that need to buy iron ore- the price of ore is already high and now it's getting a lot worse. Starting May 1st 2021, the Chinese rebate for exported steel will be cut from 13% to 0%. If China is cutting their steel production, they still want to grow and build, so they want to keep as much steel inside China as possible. This is amazing news for steel companies outside of China, as their major competitor's product just got the equivalent of 13% more expensive. Sources (you will need to translate this): and Where in particular to invest? Steel in general will make a killing in 2021 and beyond. A commodities supercycle. There is good reason to look more closely at CLF (US company) and MT (European company). CLF recently jumped 10% a few days ago and is now consolidating. CLF is generally more of an upward pointed rollercoaster while MT is a gentler climb. CLF and MT are vertically integrated and mine their own ore. For the most part they have better financials than many of their competitors, and have invested more into their futures. MT is actively buying back shares while CLF's CEO LG said on his last call they will "look after shareholders" after aggressively paying down their debt. It won't take long, they are making a ton of money. CLF has the benefit of a firebrand CEO, Lourenco Goncalves, who actively looks out for investors. Additionally, the U.S. infrastructure bill is going to require an incredibly large amount of (US) steel. In the short term, speeches involving this bill and the passing of the bill will be major catalysts, and in the long term the profits from the bill will be reflected in earnings reports for years. As people seem to put (far too much) weight on short interest, some might want to know that CLF has short interest of 11.26% as reported by Ortex. Those shorters are hurting and are going to need to buy their way out soon. MT released quarterly earnings today and did amazingly, beating already sky-high estimates by an additional 20%. Their best quarter in a decade. Commodities Boom Grips Steel And these amazing Q1 numbers don't even fully account for the new record high prices. Steel's day is just beginning. This is not a buy-today and sell-tomorrow play, this is a buy-sometime-soon and hold-for-a-long-time play. Positions: I have shares and LEAPs in CLF and MT at a variety of strikes. [link] [comments]  |
| I’m up 80% YoY- and learned I don’t know anything Posted: 05 May 2021 09:42 PM PDT I'm up a lot, but I'm closing out all my positions to start over. I thought I knew what I was doing, but after taking some graduate level finance courses, I learned I didn't actually know anything about assessing the fundamental value of a company, projecting future enterprise value, or even where I wanted to invest my money. I got super lucky over the last year (no meme stocks, I'm not that lucky), but it could just as easily have been really, really bad (I've got a few that I'm just holding now in case they recover). I'm not even sure if this a value add to any of you new folks, but the adage of "some people get rich in spite of themselves" is absolutely true. I didn't get rich or anything, but I did basically everything wrong and still made money. Don't assume that whatever method you're using is sustainable long term just cause you made a bunch of money by hitting pay dirt despite your ignorance. Actually take the time to learn what the hell you're throwing money at, and how much risk you're actually taking. [link] [comments]  |
| New Investors: The average return of the stock market is 10% per year over time. Posted: 06 May 2021 11:09 AM PDT 2020 was an unprecedented year. New investors (of which there are tens of millions now) need to know that on average the return of the market is around 10% (it ranges from 7%-11% depending on your metric, but for simplicities sake we'll average it to 10%). If you have gone beyond that 10%, that is a good thing, but it is not the average, and in the long term few investors beat the market as time goes on. Generally, beating the market is an anomaly and hard to replicate over 10 and 20 year periods. I think as a whole investors have been spoiled by the last year. The market was so awash with cash (and continues to be) from FED action that a monkey could throw darts at a board and make a lot of money. I make this post only to say that for newer investors, those who have been investing just in the last few years, don't be disappointed when your performance doesn't match that of 2020. As far as statistical returns show us, that was far and away an anomaly. I think it's prudent to temper your expectations. I don't mean sell, I don't mean you won't beat the market in the future, I just mean to say temper your expectations so that you don't become disenchanted with investing as time goes on. If you beat 10% in your portfolio it is a GOOD thing. However, expecting 30%-500% growth in less than a year is only going to make you feel disappointed when your stocks don't meet that expectation. Keep your head high, stay invested, let your investments compound, just don't be saddened when your returns are at or slightly below average moving forward. You're still doing better than those that don't invest at all. [link] [comments]  |
| U.S. Coast Guard Renews Partnership with Palantir to Fight COVID-19 Posted: 06 May 2021 05:04 AM PDT May 06, 2021 06:59 AM Eastern Daylight Time DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) today announced the U.S. Coast Guard has extended its commitment to use Palantir's software to help it respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. "Palantir is proud to help enhance Coast Guard readiness, and keep their staff and families safe. We look forward to continuing to provide the Coast Guard with the very best technology to help them ensure our Nation's maritime safety and security" The Coast Guard has been using Palantir's software since April 2020 as the data management, analytics, and operations tool for its response to the pandemic. This contract renewal has a base value of $6.25 million and a potential total amount of $11.25 million for nine months. Palantir's software enables centralized collaboration of workspaces across the country, offering real-time visibility into critical data for Coast Guard members anywhere, across ranks, to make informed and risk-based decisions. The Coast Guard will continue to use Palantir to create a common operating picture and help determine resource allocation, including vaccines, to best respond to the pandemic and enhance readiness. The Coast Guard announced on April 21 that it had fully vaccinated over 50% of its members since its vaccination campaign began only four months ago. "Palantir is proud to help enhance Coast Guard readiness, and keep their staff and families safe. We look forward to continuing to provide the Coast Guard with the very best technology to help them ensure our Nation's maritime safety and security," said Doug Philippone, Palantir's Global Defense Lead. Palantir has played a key role in mitigating the global COVID-19 pandemic, supporting more than 100 organizations in their response to the pandemic, including across the U.S. government and military. At the Coast Guard, Palantir's software has enabled operational management of the pandemic response, including collaborative logistics planning, vaccine distribution and inventory tracking, and centralized field reporting. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 May 2021 05:29 AM PDT LOS ANGELES AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- The U.S. Space Force's Space and Missile Systems Center's Cross-Mission Ground & Communications Enterprise (ECX) has awarded a firm-fixed price contract totaling $32.5 million, to Palantir. This sole source award provides a Data-as-a-Service (DaaS) Platform and converges three separate mission areas (Space C2, NORAD-NORTHCOM, and Project Brown Heron) using the same tech stack called Warp Core. It supports the Project Brown Heron effort under the U.S. Air Force Vice Chief of Staff, by providing a common data foundation that improves readiness information, which is a critical component of DAF-wide COVID-19 analysis and decision-making effort. This award also enables the NORAD-NORTHCOM Command and Control Center to ingest data into the platform from across functional and geographic domains to support ongoing planning and operations for Joint All-Domain Command and Control. Lastly, this effort will provide mission-critical Space Domain Awareness (SDA) and C2 capabilities to operational users at the National Space Defense Center and the Combined Space Operations Center. DaaS is data management strategy that centralizes data sets where it is cleansed and enriched for a broad audience of applications. This enterprise approach enables speed and improves trend analysis to help facilitate enhanced strategic decision making for leadership. "By integrating this commercial product into our architecture, we have been able to accelerate our ability to make real-time data driven decisions. Information that would take 'man-years' to pull together and try to synthesize and analyze now takes minutes" said Col. Jennifer Krolikowski, senior materiel leader for Space C2 in ECX. Warp Core leverages Palantir Gotham, a fully-featured, highly customizable commercial off-the-shelf solution for data integration, analysis, visualization, and knowledge management, deployed worldwide by government agencies and commercial enterprises. Palantir's powerful back end and flexible front end address all aspects of data integration and analysis within a unified, easy-to-use platform. It also connects with the USSF Unified Data Library to integrate data from across the space enterprise. Space C2 program, also known as Kobayashi Maru, under SMC's ECX provides capabilities that bring critical services to our warfighters to facilitate timely, quality driven battlespace decisions for the space domain fight. The program provides infrastructure and enterprise services, as well as develops mission applications to enable responsive, resilient operational-level Space C2 capabilities for space operations centers. Kobayashi Maru's mission product lines include Battle Management, Command and Control (BMC2), Space Domain Awareness, Data Analytics and Visualization, and Theater and Coalition Support. These efforts all focus on developing the operational echelon of Space C2 mission applications to deliver multi-domain effects. The operational C2 layer that Kobayashi Maru provides, underpins foundational offensive and defensive space control capabilities for the USSF space enterprise. The U.S. Space Force's Space and Missile Systems Center, located at the Los Angeles Air Force Base in El Segundo, California, is the center of excellence for acquiring and developing military space systems. SMC's portfolio includes space launch, global positioning systems, military satellite communications, a meteorological satellite control network, range systems, space-based infrared systems, and space situational awareness capabilities. [link] [comments]  |
| I bought into GOOG instead of GOOGL. Did I make a mistake here? Posted: 06 May 2021 02:09 AM PDT I was trying to buy some Google shares and picked up GOOG instead of GOOGL without checking. But since GOOGL is Cheaper & has Voting rights. Would I be better off selling GOOG and repurchasing GOOGL instead? [link] [comments]  |
| How you should start with investing Posted: 06 May 2021 08:38 AM PDT I've seen a ton of posts recently from new investors asking how they should get started in investing along with a lot of posts from people who have just gotten into the stock market, lost a lot of money and are now panicking. As such I figured I'd just make a quick post to recommend what I feel is the best way to get started in the stock market. Step 1: Take 90% of your capital that you would like to invest and put it in a total market index fund like VTI or FZROX You're new at this, no matter how much research you have done you don't know what you're doing and will make mistakes. Putting your money into an index fund will give you good returns along with the security of knowing with 99.999% certainty that if there is a dip it WILL recover (and if it doesn't you probably have bigger problems to worry about). It will also help you get used to the ups and downs of the market without getting emotional. Step 2: Start paper trading Most brokerages offer a "paper trading" account. These are accounts where you invest with fake money and can track how you would have done with these investments. I know you're excited and want to start investing now so you can make money, but you're new and will likely fall into one of several common pitfalls of new investors, better to do this with fake money than real money. And besides if you follow step 1 your money is invested and you are getting good returns. Step 3*: Start using your 10% cash to make real stock purchases Once you do well after a few months to a year of paper trading (it seems like a long time I know but trust me the stock market will still be there when you're done), take some of your remaining capital and start buying stocks. Real investing is not like paper trading when it comes to your actual money, keep that in mind. You will find yourself panicking for the first time here, that's fine, remember the vast majority of your money is in a solid investment with little risk and good returns. Step 4*: Start moving more into stock picks After a few years of doing well with your 10%, if you feel like you'd rather pick your own stocks over using an index fund then start moving money out of your total market index funds into individual stock picks And that's it, that's (in my opinion) the best way to get started in the stock market. Any additional tips from you guys? *These steps aren't actually necessary, you can just leave 100% of your capital in total market index funds and you will be fine, in fact that's what I would recommend you do but I realize that many people, especially those that come to this subreddit, would rather take their chances and try to outperform the market [link] [comments]  |
| VIAC is very undervalued in an overvalued market and just had an amazing earnings report Posted: 06 May 2021 09:58 AM PDT VIAC is massively undervalued following a hedge fund selloff and even after an amazing earnings report. As of right now, VIAC has a PE ratio of about 10.5, in a market where all of its competitors in the industry have an average of 44. VIAC's quarterly report just came in today, and earning were beat by a huge 25%. Professional analysts projected and EPS of $1.22, and in their earnings report this morning, VIAC brought in a non-GAAP EPS of $1.52, and a GAAP EPS of $1.42, beating the professional estimates by a lot. It's not just this quarter, VIAC has beat every earnings estimate in the last year. The earnings were driven mostly by their fairly new streaming service, Paramount+, which had a growth of a nice 69% since last year. More and more people are starting to recognize and buy their Paramount+ subscription. Many of the shows they have are geared towards children (or the man childs like me still watching them) such a Spongebob and Avatar, as well as sports, many shows from comedy central, and others. I can honestly see Paramount+ becoming a pretty major competitor with Netflix, Disney+, and Hulu in the future, the rates at which their subs are growing is pretty impressive. VIAC also has a decent dividend payout of 2.4% and it should be coming soon following the earnings report, but I do not know the exact date. They are also undervalued based on their price to book ratio, which is 1.6 compared to the industry average of 2.1. The most amazing part of VIAC is that the value of VIAC's assets is worth less than the market cap of the company, meaning that if VIAC sold all the assets they own right now and liquidated the company, it would worth more than the stock value of the company itself. VIAC currently has a market cap of $24 billion, and their assets alone dwarf the market cap. Their long term assets alone are worth $39 billion, they have another $7 billion in receivables, and an additional $3.6 billion in physical assets, plus $3 billion o liquid cash on hand right now, which adds up to a total of $52 billion in assets, yet the market cap of VIAC is less that half of that. The one off thing that takes this down is VIAC's $19 billion debt, but VIAC's value of assets-liabilities ($52B-$19B) brings it to around $33 billion, which makes it 28% undervalued based on assets alone. The only reason VIAC is as low as it is right now is because of the massive hedge fund selloff from Archegos, which single handedly drove the share price down from $100 to $40. Knowing the selloff is coming, many investors took short positions on the company, some still are, but in the last month, the short interest on VIAC has dropped almost 40%. Even the shorts know it's undervalued and they're all exiting their positions. VIAC is having the fire sale of a lifetime, in a time where the majority of other stocks are overvalued. My price target for VIAC is $60 short term, and I can see it going back up to $100 by the end of the year. Positions: 20 shares @$41 each TL;DR: VIAC is on sale and massively undervalued, and dropped so much because of large hedge fund selloff. Huge growth of earning from streaming service Paramount+, and subscribers are only growing, and debt is dropping. [link] [comments]  |
| ARK funds - time to take gains and move elsewhere or ride it out? Posted: 06 May 2021 08:27 AM PDT Any of us who have invested in the ARK funds have probably enjoyed some really nice gains over the past year or two but certainly over the last several months these funds have faced a lot of downward movement. While I used to see 99% all positive feedback on the ARK funds now the pendulum has swung and I see much more mixed feelings about them. I for one invested because I believed in their vision of investing in disruptive technologies and companies and staying ahead of innovation and technology. However I wonder if they have gotten too successful and to trusting in their process that they are now making some questionable moves. I guess the long and short of this post is what are other holders thoughts on the recent trends and are you planning to take gains and move on or ride this out? [link] [comments]  |
| Anyone else extremely bullish on Disney? Posted: 05 May 2021 05:34 PM PDT Maybe I am biased because I love Marvel but Disney+ already surpassed 100+ million subscribers within less than 2 years since it launched. I do think Disney will be a fantastic growth stock for the next 10 years because of Disney+, they are pumping out more and more content for the next 2 years compared to last year. On top of Disney+, Disney theme parks, cruises, and their movies like Star wars and MCU will continue to make ton of money(not to mention they are working on 4 Avatar sequels this decade). Disney has their earnings next Thursday and I expect the total number of D+ subscribers to be up again thanks to their new hit show the Falcon and the Winter soldier. How do you guys feel about Disney this year and in the coming years? [link] [comments]  |
| Cloudflare - jump in, or wait? Posted: 06 May 2021 10:00 AM PDT I've been eyeballing Cloudflare for a while now, and am currently debating with myself whether I should pull the trigger and open a position, or whether imma still wait, since I'm not too happy with the current valuation. What are y'alls thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Here is a Market Recap for today Thursday, May 6, 2021 Posted: 06 May 2021 01:33 PM PDT PsychoMarket Recap - Thursday, May 6, 2021 Remarkably, despite many individual companies pulling back steeply today, the three major indexes finished the day positive, driven by gains in financial stocks and stability in mega-caps. Growth stocks and more speculative plays have been hit hard by a combination of inflationary fears and recent suggestions by monetary officials that the interest rate should be raised. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed the day 0.81%, less than 1% below it's record high. The Dow Jones (DIA) recorded a new intraday record while the Nasdaq (QQQ) closed 0.76%. Market participants continue to monitor commentary from monetary officials, ongoing earnings season, and new economic data, particularly the April Jobs Report set for release tomorrow morning. After reclaiming the leadership in April as the best performing sector in the SPY, so far in May we have seen investors rotate out of big tech stocks and into financial stocks, with many big banks pushing all-time highs today. Market participants are worried that a suggested raise in interest would affect the already stretched valuation of some companies. Given the rally the market saw in April, some analysts are worried that positive catalysts for equities are getting harder to achieve and may be running out. The economy in the US is recovering faster than initially predicted by analysts, with this earnings season seeing 86% of companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings beat estimates, according to data from FactSet. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggested that interest rates may need to rise in the near-term to prevent the economy from overheating, with the recent economic data and corporate earnings showing economic activity recovering much faster than expected as effective distribution of the vaccine in the US allows states to gradually reopen. Yellen said, "It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn't overheat, even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy. It could cause some very modest increases in interest rates to get that reallocation, but these are investments our economy needs to be competitive and to be productive. I think our economy will grow faster because of them." In later remarks, she added that raising rates was not something she was predicting or recommending and that the decision ultimately rests with the Federal Reserve. She said, "Let me be clear, that's not something I'm predicting or recommending. If anybody appreciates the independence of the Fed, I think that person is me." The Labor Department will release its April jobs report on Friday, which is expected to show a staggering nearly 1 million payrolls came back last month, accelerating March's gain. As a reminder, in March, the Department of Labor reported nonfarm payrolls increased by 916,000 for the month while the unemployment rate fell to 6% (unemployment rate was 14.6% in April 2020). Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 675,000 and an unemployment rate of 6%. Highlights
"Patience is not simply the ability to wait – it's how we behave while we're waiting." – Joyce Meyer [link] [comments]  |
| What are your thoughts on starting a position on Pinterest (PINS) now? Posted: 06 May 2021 12:09 PM PDT During Pinterest's Q1 2021 earnings report, they announced they'd beat revenue estimates. However, their growth this quarter was disappointing, and their monthly active users was less than expected. In response, the price has now dropped from $77 before its earnings announcement, to $57 in about a week's time, or about 25%. Would now be a good time to start a position in PINS? [link] [comments]  |
| Cloudflare ($NET) Announces First Quarter 2021 Financial Results Posted: 06 May 2021 02:01 PM PDT
"We had a record-setting start to the year. Our Q1 revenue growth was up 51% year-over-year, and dollar net retention increased to 123%. We crossed 4 million total customers, and our large customer count was up 70% year-over-year, accounting for more than half of our total revenue," said Matthew Prince, co-founder & CEO of Cloudflare. "We delivered terrific financial results while also investing in innovation, the fuel our engine runs on. Firing on all cylinders, we've already announced or delivered more than 100 products and capabilities this year. There's no slowing down as we continue to deliver business-critical offerings and displace point solutions with Cloudflare's robust global network." EDIT: Up 5% AH [link] [comments]  |
| Did I make a mistake buying RKT? Posted: 06 May 2021 05:58 AM PDT Their stock starting tanking in after hours, after their earnings call. I don't understand why, it was a narrow miss of just $0.01 a share. I know they are a bit of a meme stock, but I began adding them to my portfolio after the price settled following the pump and dump at the end of March, because I felt it was a good play. I was looking over the call transcript and am just seeing more reasons to be bullish, in summary - their goal is to be the leading retail home mortgage provider in the next two years, have a 90% customer retention rate, were voted one of the best workplaces and have a liquid position with positive cash flow. Some of the fundamental indicators like price to sales ratio of 2.3 looks on par with some financial companies (WFC, JPM). Compared to other internet/tech companies they are a big value play. PEG of 0.24 Planning on holding for now and considering adding shares at market open at a discount. Anyone care to offer a bear case for RKT? What am I missing here? [link] [comments]  |
| What's your opinion on the ARK funds at this time? Posted: 06 May 2021 11:40 AM PDT We saw some stability for the last acouple weeks across most of the ark funds, but the past few days has been brutal and some of cathie's recent decisions have been questionable in my opinion. What are your thoughts on this? Are you still long? Are you selling? Let's discuss! [link] [comments]  |
| Reuters on electric vehicle maker Volkswagen: VW throws down the emissions gauntlet (VOW, VWAGY) Posted: 06 May 2021 05:48 AM PDT How low can you go? Volkswagen throws down the emissions gauntlet Excerpt:
Further:
Details:
Also:
And:
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| Shouldn't 10 Year Bond Rates and Precious Metals Price Move in the similar direction? Posted: 06 May 2021 01:14 PM PDT Price of the precious metals such as gold and silver goes up when we anticipate inflation since the value of the fiat will go down. Possessing real money will preserve our wealth. For similar reason, when we anticipate inflation, long-year (such as 10 year) bond yield rises since holding bonds with lower rate is bag holding when inflation comes. So people sell bonds to avoid bag holding. Sure the bond yields has risen for several months prior to recent times (recent times as in recent few weeks). However, it has either stagnated or went down a bit for the recent few weeks while gold and silver price went up for the recent few weeks. What other factors are in play that makes the bond market to depict as if they are not anticipating inflation while making the precious metals market to depict as if they are anticipating inflation? [link] [comments]  |
| Joining the market at record highs Posted: 06 May 2021 12:53 PM PDT I've read multiple cases where the market is headed into a bubble. While others argue that there's nothing to fear as the economic recovery is still underway. As the overall trends of markets are bullish in the long term, should short-mid term investors steer clear of the market at record highs? What about long term investors? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 May 2021 07:18 AM PDT Earning called missed revenue a little and EPS by 10%. With the dip, I've been dca'ing into FSTLY but losing 23% is huge. What so you think? Double down? Or stop pouring money? I felt this was a good value that was due for a pump based in cloud flare's performance but maybe not? [link] [comments]  |
| Genius Sports ($GENI) - Picks and Shovels of the Sports Betting Industry Posted: 06 May 2021 10:16 AM PDT Genius Sports Limited ($GENI) (DD) Linked below is the investor presentation for more information to ponder over. Beware, it'll download a pdf. Key Numbers Price: ~$18.54 Market Cap: $3.73B Description Genius Sports ($GENI) recently reverse merged with DMYD to become a publicly traded company. GENI provides sports data and solutions in multiple ways. Recently, they centralized all of the NCAA's sports data and stats. This would be 1,100 universities and colleges among three divisions. As such, they were able to provide sports data for 50,000 events in their first 18 months of going live. NCAA basketball, football, volleyball, ice hockey and soccer leagues all use the Genius Sports LiveStats software. Furthermore, Genius provides media solutions for both sports teams and sportsbooks. For example, the Vancouver Canucks hired them to target ads to fans for special offers on tickets. This led to an 875% return on investment for the Canucks, so it's a service they're likely to keep using. The media department is just getting started as Genius just doubled their revenue in that department. Most importantly and what amounts to 74% of their revenue, Genius Sports provides sports betting data in a variety of ways. First and foremost, they supply 40% of the sportsbooks with their betting lines, and this includes live betting. DraftKings, FanDuel, bet365, and many other Sportsbooks use GENI's software and data for line setting. What this means is that it doesn't matter which sportsbook does the best, as GENI supplies data to many of them. Genius Sports is currently the leader in their field, and they have exclusive rights with multiple leagues. Among those are FIBA (pretty much every basketball league not in the USA), the NCAA, NFL, English Premier League, and many more. GENI actually has employees in attendance at the games to ensure they get the data in real time. Genius currently covers more than 240,000 events each year of which 110,000 are exclusive, and they have more than 650 long-term partnerships with sports leagues and sportsbooks. Their operations were sourced from the SEC 4K below. Look specifically at pages 154-170 and 205-221 for the business and products. https://sec.report/Document/0001193125-21-010240/ Sports Betting Outlook Sports betting hasn't even come close to hitting its peak in the United States. In 2018, Murphy v. NCAA ruled that the federal government couldn't make sports betting illegal; that decision was in violation of the 10th Amendment since those powers are not delegated to the Fed explicitly. Since then, 22 states have launched sports betting, 3 just had bills passed recently, and 22 have introduced bills. That means that only 3 states have not attempted to legalize sports betting in some capacity. Everyone has been talking about the impending legalization of marijuana and which companies will skyrocket because of that, but sports betting is already here, and no one is talking about what the plays are outside of DKNG and PENN. Sports betting is less morally gray than marijuana to politicians, so full US legalization of sports betting is literally a couple years away. Also unlike the marijuana industry, sports data companies have already been established and operating in the legal sector for some time. There's more to sports data than just sports betting. NFL nerds like myself can browse Football Reference for hours and look at OJ Simpson's stats from his 2,000 yards season. Pro Football Focus has revolutionized the NFL with analytics. Genius Sports distributes stats for FIBA and has their media department. Live betting has been seeing an increase in popularity and is actually more popular than pregame betting, especially in Europe. For this reason, it's crucial that the data is as accurate, fast, and reliable as possible. Most of the states that legalize betting also legalize mobile betting, meaning that people can bet all day every day from their phone. In-game betting is huge and is expected to grow in the US much like it has in Europe. I'm unable to find the source, but I've read that roughly 60% of bets placed in Europe are live bets. Genius Sports gets a cut of each wager placed, which means the more live bets taking place means more money for GENI. Consistent Customers Genius Sports has only lost one customer in their history, and that customer ended up coming back to them. They always seem to be in the headlines for acquiring new deals. Recently they partnered with Major League Rugby to be their data distributor, acquired FanHub for the media solutions, and signed a deal with the NFL. GENI has a habit of signing contracts with customers for a minimum of 4-5 years, but sometimes longer. Their deal with NCAA is for 10 years and was signed in 2018. In 2019 they signed with FIBA for 15 years. Their contracts have guaranteed minimums with escalators as well. Most exciting and the cherry on top for Genius Sports is the aforementioned deal with the NFL to be their exclusive data distributor. The NFL dominates ratings, as Monday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, and Thursday Night Football were the top 3 most popular series according to TV ratings. Oftentimes a random Thursday Night Football game will have higher ratings than games from the NHL Finals, World Series, and NBA Finals. The fact of the matter is that the NFL is king when it comes to viewership, and Genius is set to capitalize. Additionally, part of the NFL deal was that the NFL would get an equity stake, so it's in the league's best financial interest that Genius Sports also does well financially. Making this an even sweeter deal is that GENI's main competitor, SportRadar, was the official provider of the NFL prior to this. In other words, Genius Sports was able to steal their biggest competitor's big fish client right when the league has finally started to fully embrace betting. Financials Financially this company has room for improvement. They have $391M in assets but $530M in liabilities. However, this is for the 2020 year, and they've since gained extra capital from merging with DMYD and now being publicly listed. $350M of their liabilities are preferred securities, meaning that companies with equity stakes (like the NFL) are buying those special shares for a dividend. This isn't a huge deal because those investors believe in Genius to stay afloat and grow, otherwise they wouldn't expect a dividend. According to the investor presentation linked above, they should now have a debt free balance sheet upon completion of their merger with DMYD. GENI's upcoming earnings report will be big to see if that is actually true. In 2019 they reported an EPS of -0.23. I can't find EPS for 2020, but their EPS in Q4 2020 was -0.08, so I'd have to imagine that they did slightly worse. They reported positive EBITDA of 8% this last year, and they're projecting an EBITDA margin of 18% for 2021 and 29% for the 2022 fiscal years. Additionally, revenue is fast increasing, as their 2020 revenue of $149M was a 30% increase of $114M the year prior. Considering they were able to increase revenue in a year where sports practically didn't exist for a quarter of the year, this is wildly impressive. Genius believes that a 30% CAGR is more than doable, and they expect revenue to be $190M in 2021 and $238M in 2022. DKNG won't be profitable for a few years at least, but profitability is right around the corner for GENI. It must be noted that the numbers in the above paragraph are from their investor presentation which was released before their deal with the NFL. Valuation I'm not great at valuation, but if someone else is please feel free to chime in. For what it's worth, Simply Wall Street says that this company is priced roughly at fair valuation. Additionally, analysts have set price targets anywhere from $25-30. This is probably flawed logic, but if DraftKings is roughly $55 a share right now with a market cap of $22 billion, I gotta imagine the company that they rely on for their product is worth more than $3.73 billion. In fact, according to Niccolo de Masi, CEO of dMY Technology (the company GENI merged with to go public), DraftKings listed in their prospectus that Genius Sports going out of business is a risk factor. Bear Cases There are a handful of risk factors, and most importantly is that they have one main competitor in SportRadar. As stated earlier, Genius provides data for 40% of sportsbooks. SportRadar provides another 40% of the books with data, and the remaining 20% is split among a handful of other companies. SportRadar mainly does data for the NHL, NASCAR, and NBA (for which they have exclusive rights). SportRadar runs Cleaning the Glass, Sports Reference, and Stat Head, websites where you can look at stats dating back to the inception of each league (really cool stuff if you're into that). With that being said, I believe there's room for two companies even though they're competitors, which is a thought that de Masi also backs. SportRadar is rumored to merge with HZON, and full disclosure I do own only a small position as it's not actually official yet. As with anything, the Fed could decide they don't like it and make it illegal. I believe that to be unlikely, as sports betting provides a great amount of revenue for the State, and the government more than likely will take any extra avenue of money considering all the cash recently printed. Financially they're not exactly the most sound at the moment, so that risk is obviously there. A downside to their deal with the NFL is that it's pretty damn expensive: $120M a year. Half of that will be paid through equity, so Genius is really paying $60M a year. A value investor (which I mainly try to be) would look at GENI's balance sheet and free cash flow and say "no thanks". I believe the opportunity for huge growth is so great that I can't resist. Profitability looks like it's around the corner. Plus, if I"m gonna sports gamble I may as well invest in what I'm losing my money in. If you have anything to add, any questions or critique about my DD (this is my first one), I'd love to hear it. If I'm flat out wrong about something, please correct me, especially when it comes to explaining the financial stuff. I'd also love to hear other sports betting stocks of interest. Thanks, and let's make money from sports gambling. tldr; Sportsbooks such as DraftKings, Bet365, FanDuel and more outsource all of the sportsbooks lines. When you bet against "Vegas" in sports, international basketball, the NFL, March Madness and more, you're actually betting on the lines provided by GENI. Sports betting is being legalized rapidly, and GENI is the pick and shovels for the industry. I'm shook this hasn't been getting more coverage, either here or from the general media. Position: 179 shares at an average of $19.35 [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 May 2021 03:15 AM PDT JP morgan recently paid a dividend of 90c per share and I have 29 units. This mean I should have received $22.185 (26.1 - 15%) (I'm an Australian investor so 15% is withheld for US tax) can someone please explain to me why I received $21.96 instead of $22.185, I have had the exact same problem with the blackrock dividend. All money is kept in my USD account so no money is transferred back. The broker I use is Selfwealth. Thanks. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 05 May 2021 02:55 PM PDT Revenue and net income were down slightly QoQ but it's the projected 20% drop in originations for Q2 that is the big news, here. I've been on record multiple times saying how much of a red flag it is that the CEO only talks about growing market share. You can grow market share all you want but if your market shrinks 30-40% YoY (like the mortgage market would if it regresses to the average annual market size), your stock price isn't going anywhere. In other news, the war with United Wholesale Mortgage ($UWMC) seems to be going well. The CEO of UWMC declared war on RKT two months ago declaring that they would no longer work with any brokers that also work with RKT. RKT's volume from wholesale grew a little over 8% QoQ. The "war" didn't start until late in the quarter, however, and UWMC doesn't report Q1 earnings until Monday. [link] [comments]  |
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