Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - May 10, 2021 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - May 10, 2021
- Chipotle to hike wages, debut referral bonuses in attempt to hire 20,000 workers
- Misunderstood market fueled by fear mongering
- PSFE (Paysafe): A better way to bet on multiple high growth companies like DRAFTKINGS, BARSTOOL, FORTNITE, TWITCH, YOUTUBE, SPOTIFY, ETC.
- Himax ($HIMX) is a STRONG BUY (in my opinion)
- DKNG has not had a great couple of weeks
- Are we in the middle of a correction or signaling to a crash?
- Even blue chip tech stocks are getting killed
- How to deal with stress when your profit is slowly going down from an enjoyable sum to 0?
- ARKG a good buy right now?
- Anyone holding TTD today?
- Why is everyone rotating out of growth stocks right now?
- DD: $IRBT - The Dust Has Settled
- Amazon Tees Up Jumbo Eight-Part Debt Sale, Its First in a Year
- MGNI bounce swing trade
- What to research when choosing a stock to invest?
- TLRY Earnings today?
- APD - A company set to dominate the Hydrogen business (but not reliant)
- Triple leveraged Nasdaq - TQQQ
- Used a bunch of math to find the best stocks per industry, performed DD on that subset, and provided the steps and the stocks below.
- Where do I start?
- Skilz financial statements without revenue?
- Merger Exchange Rate Question - Current example with HRVSF & TCNNF
- Fidelity says I only have 600 shares instead of 1000
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - May 10, 2021 Posted: 10 May 2021 02:30 AM PDT These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts. Some helpful links:
If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky.. See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chipotle to hike wages, debut referral bonuses in attempt to hire 20,000 workers Posted: 10 May 2021 09:59 AM PDT Chipotle said it will increase restaurant wages resulting in a $15 average hourly wage by the end of June, as it looks to bring on 20,000 workers. Starting pay for hourly crew members will range from $11 to $18 an hour. There are opportunities to advance to general manager positions with average annual pay of $100,000. Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol said the current labor market is among the most challenging he's seen in his career in the restaurant industry. He cited a range of reasons including child care and a rethinking of work post-pandemic. As the labor market heats up, Chipotle Mexican Grill announced Monday it's raising pay for restaurant workers, reaching an average of $15 an hour by the end of June. The company has also introduced employee referral bonuses of $200 for crew members and $750 for apprentices or general managers, as it looks to recruit 20,000 new workers across the country to support its peak season and new restaurant openings. The pay hike for new and existing restaurant workers, both hourly and salaried, will roll out over the next few weeks, with hourly crew wages starting in the range of $11 to $18 per hour. There are also opportunities to advance to a restaurateur position, which is the highest-ranking general manager, with average compensation of $100,000 a year, Chipotle said, in as little as 3½ years. Chipotle is getting creative in its hiring initiatives. It is hosting a virtual career fair on Thursday on Discord, the social platform, that will include sessions with current employees. Other Chipotle benefits include mental health care and 401(k) plans and debt-free degrees for workers after 120 days from nonprofit, accredited universities in partnership with Guild Education. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Misunderstood market fueled by fear mongering Posted: 10 May 2021 10:34 AM PDT The market is rotating, there will not be a crash, there will not be hyperinflation, there will not be just 2% inflation, commodities are not the only cure as a hedge to protect yourself and neither is yoloing into $PG... CMRE and CRE motgages will bust around the same time the fed will need to change policy and talk/enact rate hikes and bond tapering due to 3-5% inflation (which although high is historically normal) after that we will see a broader 10-25% market correction due to margin debt and valuation models ignoring fundamentals, many currently fair value companies suchs as $LMT $REYN, and $TSM (I would argue 4.1x revenue at $110/share is fair value) will drop leaving smart money an excellent buying opportunity while the mass media and broader market panic sells, hedgefunds are still overleveraging which is the greatest danger to the market currently i.e $BLK but their stocks and funds will not crash down until policy change since borrowing money is so cheap and making money off that regardless of interest is easy. Notice how on a visual like finviz you can see that rotation TLDR: no crash. no hyperinflation. buy the dip in certain stocks Edit: I am wording this as factual, I am stubborn in my beliefs but I cannot predict the market same to anyone, I apologize to all for my poor usage! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 10 May 2021 01:35 AM PDT Paysafe is one hell of a company. They are a fin-tech like PayPal and Squares, thus should be given a higher multiple for valuation. They got a lot of exciting and growth customers/partners like Barstool (PENN), YouTube (Google), Twitch (AMZN), FanDuel (PDYPY), Roblox (RBLX), CoinBase (COIN), Visa (V), ApplePay (APPL), BetMGM (MGM), Spotify (SPOT), Microsoft/Xbox etc., and on top of that they got a huge digital wallet (#2 in market share) where you can trade/buy the fast-growing cryptocurrencies like Bitcoins. I truly believed this Paysafe is undervalued compared to its peers. You can read a very good Paysafe DD below on reddit and it gives a lot of insight of Paysafe valuation and bear cases: https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/mysz54/reviewing_the_bear_case_on_paysafe_psfe/ (the link above is a really really good read with lots of info about Paysafe including discussion of bear cases, so I'm not going to repeat most of the good points the author mentioned in that sub.) Most of the time analysis use assumptions to make predictions on future growth. As an example, EV-related stocks (PLUG, BLNK, QS, LAZR, NKLA, BLDP, etc) get higher or ridiculous valuation based on assumption that gasoline cars will eventually be phased out. As you can see most if not all of these companies are unprofitable and some don't even have revenue, yet worth billions. While this assumption may be accurate, it is extremely hard to know when will growth begin to accelerate. Because of this predictive nature, it's really hard to know how long you will have to hold onto the stocks before they pop. When or if it will pop is anyone's guess. So while holding onto these stocks will likely result in wild price swings thus high risk / high rewards. But what if you have the data before you showing the financial growth of your customers or partners? If your customers/partners' revenue grows, it's more likely than not they are using more of your products or services. Paysafe is one such company where you can actually look at their customers/partners' financial reports to predict where the company will go in the future and when growth will start. For this reason, Paysafe is more of a lower risk but still has high reward potential. Paysafe will be reporting earning for the very first time as a public company again on May 11. The good news is we already have their customers results in and here are some breakdown of their 1st QTR results showing huge growth:
As you can see these Paysafe's customers/partners are reporting explosive growth. While some of these companies may report an earning loss it may be due to higher expenses such as customers acquisition cost (i.e. Draftking). However, here we are more focused on their revenue as the more transactions they do the more likely all or part of that transaction is done by Paysafe. These companies reported earnings before Paysafe, so it can be highly expected Paysafe will report a very good earning and future growth projection tomorrow ( May 11). Several things to note about Paysafe besides their customer's earning growth. These factors will also influence Paysafe's future growth:
Finally, both PayPal and SQ reported earning before Paysafe and their results beat estimation: Paypal earning ( May 5, 2021) " Revenue: $6.03 billion vs. $5.90 billion expected by Refinitiv" (source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/paypal-pypl-earnings-q1-2021.html ) Square earning ( May 6, 2021 ) "Square reported a profit of 41 cents per share vs. 16 cents per share expected in a Refinitiv survey of analysts. It also brought in $5.06 billion of revenue vs. $3.36 billion expected by Refinitiv." ( source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/06/square-sq-earnings-q1-2021.html) So I can say with confidence Paysafe will likely beat their own guidance for Q1 on May 11th. For those of you who don't know Paysafe, they are not a small player. Their transaction volume is about that of SQ ~$100 Billion. If Paysafe is able to show growth on par with PayPal and SQ they should be trading at a much higher multiple. See the reddit link above for DD on valuation. In summary, I think Paysafe is a low risk / high reward stock compare to other fintech. Their growth is easier to predict as we can rely on their publicly traded customers data which is showing high growth going forward. They got the 2nd largest digital wallet. They are involved in the highly popular and fast growth digital currency market. I believe as a monopoly in iGaming/Sport Betting their growth will be massive when the 4 largest states: CA, TX, NY, FL begin to allow online sport betting. This is something about Paysafe that I like so much because no other fintech has. This is a massive high growth area and they own the space. For these reason, I am extremely bullish and I like Paysafe for both short and longer term play. Disclaimer: I own Paysafe commons, warrants, and option calls. I am not a financial adviser. No part of what I wrote above shall be constructed as financial or investment advice. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or your personal life. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Himax ($HIMX) is a STRONG BUY (in my opinion) Posted: 10 May 2021 09:15 AM PDT Himax Technologies: $HIMX
1) About the company: Review slides #8-9 in the above link. 2) Second, let's review the simple quarterly earnings, including future guidance:
*All-time high 3) Customer list by product types: FULL CUSTOMER LIST - Slide #17
4) Market share for Display Drivers: Slide #12
*It should be noted, Automobile is currently a very profitable portion of the business (hence the growing financials). 5) Global TDDI Forecast: Slide #20 (in units)
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| DKNG has not had a great couple of weeks Posted: 10 May 2021 05:38 AM PDT Draftkings had a moderately positively trending earnings report and they have been dropping pretty consistently the last couple weeks. Any news I'm missing here directly associated with them? They have been a pretty substantial part of my portfolio for a while and I'm confident they will be much higher then they are now in the future but just curious if I'm missing something. I've seen 2 different analysts officially upgraded them to roughly an $80 a share price projection over the last couple months and one of those was just in the last few weeks. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Are we in the middle of a correction or signaling to a crash? Posted: 10 May 2021 07:28 AM PDT Every 3 month chart of stocks I look at has gone down. Unfortunately I got into investing 3 months ago, and all my positions are at losses. Now I know that we had a ton of new investors over 2020 and into 2021, but in your opinion why has the market been down so much on individual stocks? I'm still waiting for the right entry for the companies I believe in, and I won't sell the stocks I have for a loss, I just want to know if you think the bear patterns are signaling towards correction or possible crash? Also thanks govt for devaluing my dollar Edit: Thank you all for discussing things with me! As a rookie investor, having a community that will take the time to teach me things means a lot. Here's to a good year! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Even blue chip tech stocks are getting killed Posted: 10 May 2021 12:00 PM PDT Is this just a normal correction after a huge run up last year? Somewhat new to investing so I took a pretty conservative approach (granted I am heavier on tech than I should be) All I've been seeing is red for the most part even with industry giants like Apple, Amazon, even those are down 2.5% just today alone. What do you guys do in this situation? It's clear that the rotation out of tech/high P/E ratios is and has been underway. I plan to hold those stocks as they are some of the best companies in history, but wow it hurts seeing days like today. Anyone else going through similar pain? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| How to deal with stress when your profit is slowly going down from an enjoyable sum to 0? Posted: 10 May 2021 11:35 AM PDT I made a decent sum this year (30k) by gambling on Gamestop through stupid luck. However, since selling in January my profit has dropped to around 14k, mainly from still holding tech stocks that are all in the red: BB, Corsair, Coinbase, Apple, and CDPR. Thankfully I do have an SP500 ETF, but it's only 1/5 of my entire portfolio. Now I'm still happy with being up 14k, but I'm watching this number go lower and lower each day and I'm worried that it's eventually going to go down to 0 or into the red. Before I wasn't too concerned with the falling price when my profit was in the 20s, but as it's getting closer to single-digit thousands I'm feeling uneasy that I'll lose everything that I ended up earning with these other stocks. How dumb would it be to cash out and just accept the lower profits? Should I just delete the app for a year and throw the rest of my cash into an SP500 ETF? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 10 May 2021 10:01 AM PDT It's down 30% over the last 3 months. Don't know a whole lot about genomics but I often hear about it being a good long term hold. Curious on your thoughts as I've been on the fence about buying another 50 shares so that I can start wheeling it. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 10 May 2021 07:38 AM PDT What's your take on the stock split/dividend reaction? I'm holding - I bought in early last year in the 300s and topped off again at 560. My only concern is Apple shaking up the ad platforms visibility and it being a broader issue. I saw this stock fly to 900 and back down, still holding. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Why is everyone rotating out of growth stocks right now? Posted: 10 May 2021 10:11 AM PDT Anyone seeing the growth tech stock taking a beating? Just curious if there is something bigger in the markets that I should be aware of. Maybe just uncertainty with COVID in India and all that? Or China pressuring a number of areas? All of the blue chip and dividend stocks are way up right now. Seems like a great time to buy the dip if anything, right? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DD: $IRBT - The Dust Has Settled Posted: 10 May 2021 07:35 AM PDT Note: Before reading, consider if I'm worth my salt. Here's an overview of my performance since I started posting Stock Analysis to reddit: https://www.markovchained.com/profiles/view/reddit:F1rstxLas7. Any good investor heavily considers the underlying performance of a business before buying into them, so why shouldn't we do the same on reddit? Intro: iRobot = Roomba, got it? It's really that simple. It's a household name brand that sells their robot vacuums, as well as automatic floor mopping robots, a robot that teaches kids to code(this speaks directly to my heart), and their new robotic lawn mower. Incorporated in 1990, Headquartered in Massachusetts, blah, blah, blah. Bear case: Yeah, we're going to do this analysis a little differently. There have been a few good threads examining IRBT, most of which have the same few comments and criticisms.
Alright, I admit that the above Bear case was only used to illustrate some rebuttals to common arguments against IRBT. It's important to consider that just because I disagree with the arguments above, doesn't mean that the rest of the market does as well. Public sentiment is always a factor when considering investments and I realize that right now I'm betting against the above arguments. Below, I will get further into some of my subjective analysis that further defends this thesis. Metrics:
Subjective analysis: I love but had the concern going into this that the company hasn't "grown" in a few years. After looking through their financial statements, I've been proven wrong. As a matter of fact, they've proven me wrong time and time again when trying to find cracks in the armor. I was hoping that perception of their product lineup was poor- it's not. Even with Samsung being in the same market as them since 2014, Roomba has crushed their competition and it's partly because the customer base believes in them. I then turned my attention to employee sentiment -that too was a dead end. Glassdoor shows raves reviews for iRobot. People like working there. Warren Buffett has said(yes, I know, the entirety of reddit quotes him but today this is extra applicable to this thesis) that there might be a thousand people who don't agree with your investing opinion- and that's fine. As it stands now, I don't think many people perceive iRobot as a company with the growth momentum of a rocket ship. Putting myself in the perspective of a business owner, which is what you become the moment you hit the 'Place Buy Order' button, has made me realize that I would love to own this business. It's a profitable leader in a market segment that has the ability to expand further into the quickly growing tech and robotics industries, but doesn't rely on them. So if the haters hate then let them hate, and watch the money pile up. If you'd like to read more about my investment strategies and analysis or other Due Diligence that I've done, you can find them on my personal site, TheStockChartist.com. Mods, if this isn't allowed, please let me know and I'd be more than happy to remove this link. Disclaimer: The above is not advice, just an analysis meant for educational purposes. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Amazon Tees Up Jumbo Eight-Part Debt Sale, Its First in a Year Posted: 10 May 2021 06:13 AM PDT Amazon.com Inc. is selling bonds to refinance debt and buy back stock in its first offering in nearly a year. The online retail giant is issuing debt in eight parts, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. The longest portion, a 40-year security, may yield around 115 basis points over Treasuries, said the person, who asked not to be identified as the details are private. Amazon has been a fairly infrequent issuer, but it comes in big on those rare occasions. It last tapped the bond market in June 2020, borrowing $10 billion for general corporate purposes. Prior to that, it sold $16 billion of bonds in 2017 to help finance its acquisition of Whole Foods Market Inc. The proceeds of Monday's offering will be for general corporate purposes, which may also include acquisitions and working capital, said the person. The two-year bond will be allocated for eligible green or social projects. Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co. are managing the sale, said the person. Source: Bloomberg [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 10 May 2021 12:21 PM PDT Hey guys, MGNI just dropped near 20% in one single day. This excessive drop going to have a regression to the mean, meaning tomorrow will be a small bounce of 5-7%. My play is to buy in today and sell tomorrow late. Any one have any thoughts on this solid growth company? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What to research when choosing a stock to invest? Posted: 10 May 2021 10:50 AM PDT I'm pretty new to stock investing, just started last year December and I like to pick individual stocks. I always hear about having a diverse portfolio and I definitely see the benefits of that, but I just don't really know where to start exactly when researching. I'd appreciate any advice, thanks. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 10 May 2021 10:21 AM PDT I see that TLRY is reporting today when I search the ticker on bing (they are sourcing that from Zacks) but then I don't see any indication of this on yahoo finance and I didn't get an email notifying me about it from my brokerage. Can anyone confirm or deny if they are reporting today? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| APD - A company set to dominate the Hydrogen business (but not reliant) Posted: 10 May 2021 07:18 AM PDT I've been into Hydrogen for quite a while, and I think APD is severely undervalued at its current price. I'd love to hear other opinions on this, and Hydrogen in general, but I also want to give my perspective, and why I'm extremely bullish on it. Hydrogen production costs have fallen 40% since 2015,and are expected to fall by a further 40% through 2025. $2/kg is considered a potential tipping point that will make hydrogen competitive in multiple sectors, including power generation and long-range shipping. People think we need to move to EV cars to lower Carbon Dioxide emissions is the big move we need to make, but transport only accounts for 16% of greenhouse gases. Planes cannot run off electricity or solar, they would require either nuclear power, or hydrogen to sustain travel. Maybe you might disagree here, but I think the safety concerns would make it unfeasible. For a lot of industries, especially ones reliant on forms crude oil, hydrogen may be the only feasible replacement, with its extremely high kilogram calorific value. Other viable options are Butane, Methane, and Natural Gas. What are the current uses of hydrogen? Well, key factors driving the hydrogen generation market growth include rising demand for petroleum coke in the steel industry and development in the cement and power generation industries, this all ignoring the many favourable government initiatives regarding the sustainable and green environment. $APD not only produces hydrogen, but also have room to grow in their production of Oxygen, Nitrogen, Argon and Carbon Dioxide. They have great earnings and a P/E ratio below 40. The projected market for Oxygen is $30 Billion by 2025, for Nitrogen its about $33 Billion. Argon has a much smaller, but not insignificant projected market of $487 million by 2026, and $12.1 billion for carbon dioxide by 2027. As if that weren't enough, they also produce semiconductor materials (with a semiconductor shortage, there is a lot to gain here); natural gas liquefaction technology and equipment (I don't know much about that stuff); epoxy additives (Epoxy resins are used in Wind Turbines, Electrical systems like circuit boards. Epoxy resin market is expected to almost double in value to over $10 Billion); Gas Cabinets (It costs $4k to get a projected market size, I aint paying that shit, but for reference here's what wikipedia has to say: A gas cabinet is a metallic enclosure which is used to provide local exhaust ventilation system for virtually all of the gases used or generated in the Semiconductor, Solar, MEMS, NANO, Solar PV, Manufacturing and other advanced technologies.). I listened into their conference call today to see what had to be said, and some very interesting points were made, that puts my bullish stance far higher. There is a lot of debate on the efficacy of green hydrogen. The argument is that its inefficient. Well, APD have aims to become the leaders of Blue Hydrogen, alongside their efforts to produce green hydrogen. Now, what is blue hydrogen many may ask. Well blue hydrogen refers to hydrogen produced using natural gas, with the CO2 emissions generated during the process being captured and stored. I plan on sending an email to investor relations to see if I can get more details on this, as I'm aware they sell CO2 and CO, but this development puts me very bullish on the company, as this would be an efficient way to produce hydrogen with low environmental impact. Blue Hydrogen is not a dream either. I posted yesterday on the Dutch Government's subsidies for a carbon capture project, which directly benefited APD. Carbon capture is already a reality. Another thing said during the conference call was that they're very bullish on is high purity Nitrogen in the electronics market. They've earned a lot of contracts, although some of them they cannot announce for client privacy reasons. Sales of atmospheric gases constituted 46% of sales in 2020, while hydrogen, syngas and related products constituted 22% of sales. Evidently they don't rely on hydrogen for revenue, but being the leading provider, they put themselves in a good position to profit heavily from the eventual move to hydrogen A lot of interesting questions were answered in the conference call, which I suggest anyone thinking about investing having read this should listen to. I've said it for quite a while, and I'll continue to say it, but hydrogen is the future for the majority of industries, and the safest investment you can make into hydrogen is APD, they have insanely strong earnings to their name (11% CAGR), and offer a 2% dividend as an added benefit of holding shares. They don't do any stock buybacks, but I'm completely fine with that. P/E of about 34, and earnings are not affected by any rises in natural gas (Their customers subsidise the cost of natural gas). TLDR: I think this is severly undervalued. They are profitable now, but do they have room to fucking grow. As clean energy is pushed more and more, I think their earnings will grow exponentially, and I wouldn't put it past them to do it. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Triple leveraged Nasdaq - TQQQ Posted: 10 May 2021 12:14 PM PDT They say this is a risky play, and should only be done by professionals who have a thorough understanding of how it works. This assumes the non professionals are trying to make money though, right? If my goal was to lose 15 percent in a week, then I'm doing well? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 10 May 2021 06:31 AM PDT TLDR: I did a bunch of math based on some reasonably good ideas to determine a selection of stocks worth performing additional DD on. The ones that passed the DD, I then bought. All of them. Lists of stocks found in 2020 and 2021 Experiment sections. Observations/Assumptions
HypothesisUsing industry bench marking against the best companies in each industry in equal measure should provide a well diversified portfolio that over the long term should be able to beat the S&P 500. Industry Classification
Experiment 2020750 stocks were analyzed against their peers in their industry. Stocks were given a score based on their relative percentage compared to the industry index. For example, each companies' average ROE of the last 4 years was compared to this index value with the following type of breakdown:
For example, the ROE communication services industry index value used was 10.10%. If a communication services company had a ROE average of 9%, they would receive a poor rating. If they had a ROE of 10.5% they would receive a good rating. If they had a ROE of 25% they would receive a great rating. This was done for all of the metrics below:
The relative scores used for each of the metrics was tweaked until there was a good distribution of results. e.g., if the 150% revenue growth only found 5 companies with a Great rating, that may need to be decreased to 125% for a better distribution. Any stock that received a poor in any of the 4 metrics was eliminated. Example on ROE https://imgur.com/a/kujNkWE That left 53 stocks. EBITDA was then analyzed to see if it was declining, and if so, it too was eliminated. This left 45 stocks. These 45 were reviewed more thoroughly. What did the company do? What were their competitive advantages? Are they currently in any lawsuits? Does their debt look out of control? Do I see them being a long-term sustainable choice? Is their IP about to expire? Essentially boiling down to: Is there any reason that I want to exclude them? That left 26 across 7 sectors. https://imgur.com/a/NsBdPtb These 26 stocks were bought in equal amounts in July 2020, August 2020, and September 2020. To easily perform time weighted analysis of these stocks and determine if there was an opportunity cost, 10% of the total purchase each period was also allocated to VFIAX. The chart below shows the total return of each stock including reinvested dividends. MATH INDEX, second to the bottom, is the average of returns. https://imgur.com/a/al60PZN 2020 LIST OF STOCKS:
You can see VFIAX returned 28.20% vs the MATH INDEX of 36.56% over the same period, 30% higher returns. For those wondering how the exclusions did, they were only tracked against the first July purchase, but that comparison to date, including dividends for July purchase only, would be:
Overall after ~10 months we have 2 excellent results.
This is obviously a short period. Can we do it again this year? Should we go bigger? Yes. Experiment 20212,850 tickers of the largest US stocks were identified as the initial list. The stocks had their last 5 years averaged for each of nine metrics:
More metrics were used due to the increased data set. These stocks were then grouped by industry, and the average of the averages is taken to determine the industry average for the last 5 years; I switched to median based on a few outliers really throwing the average for some of the metrics. If that was confusing, here is an example:
Each stock was compared against its Industry benchmark for each of the metrics and given a score 1=Poor, 2=Good, 3=Great as well as a composite score out of 27. 9 metrics with a max score of 3 in each of the metrics. The scores are based on how much better they are then the average. I measured them against the benchmark using the same methodology as previously performed: Poor < 100%, Good < 150%, Great > 150%. Again, these may be tweaked slightly depending on the particular metric to find a useful distribution. I also ranked every stock against the entire list for each of the metrics and overall. For those wondering, the best stock in this ranking was CORT with a score of 2,097 and the worst was CYCN with a score of 23,095. Because the overall rank is a combination of 9 categories with values ranging from 1-2791, the theoretical best a company could do would be 9 and the theoretical worst a company could do would be 25,119. Anyone wondering why the number of stocks doesn't match the original input is primarily due to mergers/acquisitions or the stock being taken private. Another stock was acquired during the analysis, changing the max number yet again. Here is an example showing Aerospace & Defense scoring: https://imgur.com/a/fKDYNXE Here is an example showing growth scoring (the Revenue Growth column is the company's most recent year): https://imgur.com/a/6hy5NuM Here is an example of the visualizations for the data:https://imgur.com/a/bMH98rM I applied a series of filters to eliminated unwanted noise. I looked at the top 5 stocks per industry (extending out for any ties), any stock that scored a 25, 26, or 27 on the composite, or any stock that had a high enough overall rank to justify being reviewed. Next, I read the description of ~300 stocks and looked through their financials for any inconsistencies, such as one huge year throwing off their average, profit margins higher than operating margins, highly leveraged companies with poor growth, etc. My favorite find was that Chemed Corporation provides hospice/palliative care and owns Roto-Rooter. Yes, I did end up keeping them, no there are not great synergies between the sectors of the business, yes, they are aware of this. I also eliminated industries I wasn't interested in reviewing, such as REITS due to the need to look at different metrics like FFO, Oil and Gas because it's oil and gas, etc. These activities eliminated ~150. I would like to get back to REITs, but I'd need to build a separate model. I then looked at each stock in more detail compared to its peers that made the cut. Are all the rest of them in the double digits for growth, are the profit margins substantially less, which one is in a better debt situation, etc. Who deserves to be on this list? This eliminated ~75. We were down to 84 stocks at this point. I then attempted to look at each company's investor presentation, annual report, etc. to better understand what the company does, their revenue model, risks, etc. I was not nearly as thorough on this portion this year compared to last year just due to the substantial increase in companies, 26 vs 84. I only eliminated 1 company which left us at the grand total of 83 companies across 31 industries. Breakdown here: https://imgur.com/a/8P9dmd9 I then purchased all of these in equal proportion a few days ago:
Notes
*I am not a financial advisor or anything else I should put here to ensure it is clear that I did this for myself and am sharing my results and am in no way forcing you to push buttons to buy things you don't understand or requiring justification for this run on sentence and henceforth. Past results are no guarantee of future returns. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 10 May 2021 10:07 AM PDT I have recently decided it's time to buckle down and learn how stocks work. Where do you guys read info on companies that isn't them blowing smoke for the sake of fooling people? What helps you make decisions? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skilz financial statements without revenue? Posted: 10 May 2021 08:28 AM PDT I'm new to investing. After I heard about their earnings, I wanted to look at specific financial statement. I first went to their website and found quarterly reports that I saw online. However, when I went to SEC.gov, their 10-q filings seemed to be a lot different than Skillz quarterly results? https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1801661&owner=exclude Also, their filings were under different name, is this becauee Skillz is a blank check company? https://investors.skillz.com/financials/sec-filings/default.aspx Lastly, does anyone see 10-q for q1 here? it's their official website but only have 8-k for 2021. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Merger Exchange Rate Question - Current example with HRVSF & TCNNF Posted: 10 May 2021 09:22 AM PDT Here's the current example from which my question stems: Trulieve ($TCNNF) announced its buying Harvest (HRVSF). They are issuing something like .1147 TCNNF shares per HRVSF share. Most articles are highlighting that based on TCNNF closing price last Friday, this is a 35% premium for Harvest shareholders, equaling approximately a value of $4.79 per HRVSF share (or spiked about 17% at open today). My question: When the shares convert over, how exactly did that work? Do HRVSF shareholders get an equivalent amount of shares at the price of TCNNF at the time of the announcement, at the time things finalize? Something else? If TCNNF price tanks between now and then, could this potentially be a loss instead of this estimated premium? Any help explaining this is greatly appreciated. For disclosure, i have approx 5k shares of HRVSF. long on weed industry, not necessarily on TCNNF. This is my first merger/ acquisition I've had skin in the game with, so using this current example instead of a hypothetical. I won't take any info as financial advice. Just trying to understand the mechanics so I can make my own call. Thanks again [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fidelity says I only have 600 shares instead of 1000 Posted: 10 May 2021 09:22 AM PDT I am using active trader pro and purchased 600 shares of company XYZ a few days ago. When I initially purchased the these 600 I accidentally did so with margin but didn't want to long on margin (not sure how long it will take my price target to be met, concerned about fees, interest, etc) so I sold them for a small gain and then repurchased an additional 600 with cash. I bought another 400 today with cash. When I place a sell order for 1000 shares at higher target price in the future it says I have 600 in margin and 400 in cash and will not let me complete the trade. Will this clear up when my cash settles and show I own 1000 shares. [link] [comments]  |
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