Stocks - BREAKING: U.S. fuel pipeline system shuts down after cyberattack

BREAKING: U.S. fuel pipeline system shuts down after cyberattack
"You don't lose until you sell" has to be the biggest myth across all the investing subreddits.
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BREAKING: U.S. fuel pipeline system shuts down after cyberattack

Posted: 08 May 2021 02:49 PM PDT

The infiltration of a major fuel pipeline is "the most significant, successful attack on energy infrastructure we know of."

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/08/colonial-pipeline-cyber-attack-485984

The main fuel supply line to the U.S. East Coast has shut down indefinitely after the pipeline's operator suffered what is believed to be the largest successful cyberattack on oil infrastructure in the country's history — presenting a danger of spiking gasoline prices and a fresh challenge to President Joe Biden's pledges to secure the nation against threats.

A shutdown that lasts more than a few days could send gasoline prices in the Southeastern U.S. spiking above $3 a gallon, market analysts said. That could deepen the political risks the incident poses for Biden, stealing momentum from his efforts to center the nation's energy agenda on promoting cleaner sources and confronting climate change.

This could be the most serious successful attack the U.S. has faced yet.

What does this mean for gas stocks?

submitted by /u/BigBet0
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"You don't lose until you sell" has to be the biggest myth across all the investing subreddits.

Posted: 09 May 2021 11:00 AM PDT

More and more, I see people propagating this lie, especially to newer investors. I get why people say it. It's like saying that the family dog "went to go live on a farm." It's comforting. But it's also dangerously misleading.

It might not be the easiest thing to hear, but you lose when the price goes down, regardless of whether you sold or not.

Your portfolio is worth what you can get for it, NOT what you paid for it. And there is no such thing as a stock that owes you money. Please act accordingly and protect your capital.

submitted by /u/prusik15
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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 10th, 2021

Posted: 09 May 2021 05:35 AM PDT

Good Sunday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.

Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning May 10th, 2021.

Inflation is the big challenge for markets and the Fed in the week ahead - (Source)

After April's disappointing jobs report, market focus will shift squarely to inflation in the week ahead.

The tug-of-war over tech stocks will also continue to be a dominant force in the stock market, after Friday's bounce more than halved the week's losses in the S&P technology sector.

The April employment report was extremely disappointing with just 266,000 jobs created, well below the 1 million expected. The Friday report cast doubt on the expectations of some investors that the Fed will move toward paring back its so-called quantitative easing bond purchases later this year.

The thinking is if the inflation data appears hot when the consumer price index is reported Wednesday, it could ignite the debate about whether the Fed will have to tighten policy sooner than it would like. For now, the market is viewing the April jobs data as a distorted one-off report.

"It's all about the inflation numbers. It's all about the transitory nature and to what extent we'll see it," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group "It's more relevant to the CPI month-over-month changes. If the month-over-month gains are starting to pick up steam, and we're seeing 0.3% to 0.4%, that's not transitory and that's a problem for the Fed."

Economists expect April CPI to rise 0.2% over March, after a gain of 0.6% the month earlier. But on a year-over-year basis, CPI is expected to look sizzling, jumping 3.6%, according to Dow Jones. That compares to 2.6% the month earlier. Excluding food and fuel, CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% on a month-over-month basis.

The central bank has maintained that the pop in inflation is expected to be transitory.

Multiple Fed speakers are on the calendar, including Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, who speaks a half-hour after the CPI print Wednesday. Other officials speaking include Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard, New York President John Williams and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan.

The producer price index is reported Thursday, and that should confirm a trend of higher prices that is showing up in corporate earnings releases. Another important data point, retail sales is released Friday.

Boockvar said the retail sales report is not as important since it has been artificially boosted by one-time stimulus checks.

"It's like the steroid era of baseball," he said. "Who knows how many home runs it would have hit without stimulus."

Tech battleground

The S&P 500 and Dow finished the past week with gains. The S&P rose 1.2% to 4,232, and 2.7% to 34,777. But the technology-laden Nasdaq fell about 1.5% to 13,752, even with Friday's 0.9% gain.

In the commodities market, fears of inflation continued to build.

Copper futures hit a record high, as did lumber futures, rising 13% in the past week. Corn futures rose 8.6% in the past week, finishing at the highest level since 2013.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 2% to $64.90 per barrel.

The 10-year note yield, which moves opposite price, was at 1.55%, down from 1.63% a week ago.

Commodities fueled gains in the stock market this week, with the S&P energy sector by far the best performer, up 8.9%. Materials rose 5.9%, followed by financials, which were up 4.2%. Industrials gained 3.4%. But the S&P technology sector slumped 0.5%, for the week even with a 0.8% gain Friday.

"I think one thing that people are overlooking is that the technology selling we've seen in the last few days...is not just the reaction to the adverse earnings price reactions that we saw from certain tech names," said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG.

"But it's also this idea in that in a world where we assume capital gains taxes could go up, that's where the capital gains lie," he added. "So they are likely to come under incrementally more pressure on that basis."

President Joe Biden has proposed raising capital gains taxes to 39.6% for taxpayers making more than $1 million. That's up from the current top rate of 20%.

Emanuel said the upcoming federal income tax return filing date of May 17 could also be adding pressure to technology, since investors may be selling winners to pay their taxes.

"With the tax bill coming due on May 17 for the 2020 calendar year, people are just going to use it as an excuse within the context of higher capital gains taxes to sell those stocks to pay for their tax bill," Emanuel said. "I think people are overlooking this as part of the reason."

Boockvar said tech names could also face further headwinds from higher interest rates, particularly if inflation data is hotter than expected.

"I think the last couple of weeks tells you froth is coming out of the most expensive part of tech and earnings for the big cap names are as good as it gets in terms of growth rates. The market is telling you that," he said. "If you get a further move in rates, that's a headwind."

Earnings season continues in the week ahead though most of the rush is over for the quarter. Disney, Marriott, Wynn Resorts, Airbnb are among the companies reporting that should provide insight on the economic reopening.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

ARKK Stocks Breakdowns and Bounces

After struggling for most of the past couple months, momentum and Tech stocks are broadly outperforming today as the Nasdaq is up 1.25% compared to a 0.78% gain in the S&P 500. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) has been a poster child of the momentum theme over the past year. After a 383.9% gain from the March 2020 low to its high in mid-February, ARKK has fallen around 30% in the months since then. For most of that time, the ETF consolidated between its 50 and 200-DMA. After a failed attempt to break above its 50-DMA at the end of April, it has taken a leg lower, falling below its 200-DMA for the first time in a year in the process. While ARKK has yet to move back above its 200-DMA, it has found support around $105 which traces back to the lows earlier this spring and the highs from the fall. In other words, from a technical perspective ARKK, as well as some of its holdings, still have plenty of technical hurdles including moving back above its moving averages and breaking the past few months' downtrends. At least for the time being, the group has found some respite in the move higher today.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

As for the individual holdings of the ARKK ETF, below we show the 25 largest which accounts for approximately three-quarters of net asset value. For the most part, these stocks continue to sit on huge gains from the past year (or since their market debut for those that have IPO'ed in the past year; bolded and bordered rows in the table below) with only a small handful in the red: Teladoc (TDOC), Coinbase (COIN), and Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA). Even though the 25 largest ARKK holdings are on average up 117% over the past year, they have certainly been a pain trade recently. Most of these names are deeply oversold at the moment, and relative to their 52-week highs, they are down 35% on average. In fact, of all 58 holdings, there are only four—Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), TuSimple (TSP), Trimble (TRMB), and PACCAR (PCAR)—that are less than 10% below their 52-week highs, and none of these break into the top 25 largest holdings (as such they are not pictured below).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While ARKK holdings have generally been weak over the past few months, in recent days there have been some notable developments in the charts of these names. Some of these like CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and EXACT Sciences (EXAS) have fallen below the long-term 200-DMA. Other names in the ETF broke below their 200-DMA a while ago now, and their charts do not look much better. Stocks like Invitae (NVTA), Materialise (MTLS), and Teladoc (TDOC) collapsed below their long-term moving averages earlier this spring and this week's moves lower have resulted in breaks of critical support levels. For TDOC and MTLS, those levels have previously marked support at multiple points in the past year. One other interesting name in terms of performance today is Regeneron (REGN). Unlike many other ARKK stocks, REGN has actually been trending higher since March, albeit that is in the context of a much longer-term downtrend than many other ARKK holdings. Regardless, that recent rally has resulted in the stock to run right up to its long-term downtrend. In another move that is out of sync with its peers, today it has reversed lower, failing to break out from that downtrend.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While most names have pulled back sharply and continue to trend lower to sideways at best, that is not to say all ARKK stocks have entirely negative charts. Similar to the ETF's chart, there are several names that have found support in the past couple of days. For example, DocuSign (DOCU), Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA), Palantir (PLTR), and Spotify (SPOT) are all bouncing off critical support levels of the past year. For others like Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Iridium (IRDM), PagerDuty (PD), PACCAR (PCAR), and Synopsis (SNPS), those support levels have also coincided with their moving averages. PACCAR is also notable in that it is even breaking back above its 50-DMA today. Similarly, Novartis (NVS) is attempting to move back above its 200-DMA. Perhaps one of the most technically strong stocks of these has been Sea Ltd (SEE). Over the past year, the 50-DMA has consistently provided reliable support. After a brief dip back below in March, in April it moved back above its 50-DMA and has once again successfully retested in the past week.

In order to keep track of the ARK Innovation ETF's (ARKK) holdings, we created a custom portfolio that members can add here. Please note that this does not update real time and is only based on ARKK's holdings as of 5/6/21.

As always, investors should do their own research before buying or selling any securities, and this chart analysis is in no way meant to be a buy or sell recommendation.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commodities Soar to Five Year Highs

As talk of inflation continues to heat up, one asset class fueling the fire has been the commodities complex. In our one-year review of the market low, we noted how commodities had been some of the biggest winners during the market recovery. Well that trend hasn't stopped yet, and as shown in the chart below, on Wednesday, the Bloomberg Commodity Index closed at its highest level since August 2015.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Whether this strength flows through to CPI or Core PCE (the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation) remains to be seen, but the technicals suggest this move could just be getting started. WTI crude oil is on the verge of breaking above a level of technical resistance that capped prices in 2019, while copper prices are less than 3% from their 2011 all-time highs. However, those who thought gold would benefit from inflation fears have been mistaken. In fact, of the 23 commodities tracked in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, gold is the worst performing year to date and one of the few that is actually negative over that time period.

To be clear, we are not calling for runaway inflation. In fact, breaking to five year highs shows that broadly commodities have gone nowhere over that time period. However, we do continue to have a bullish view of energy and industrial metals and wouldn't be surprised to see this trend continue, albeit likely at a slower pace than the past year. If prices do continue to rise it may put more pressure on companies who are not able to pass those costs onto consumers. But if companies are broadly able to pass these increased input costs along, then expect price increases to begin showing up in traditional inflation measures, but any persistent impact is likely to be modest. Be sure to check out the LPL Research blog next Wednesday, as we examine the April CPI data release.

April Jobs Data Disappoints Lofty Expectations

Investors betting on a continued acceleration in U.S. payrolls in April following March's impressive numbers received an unwelcome reminder of just how choppy the data can be month-to-month.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly employment report this morning, revealing that the domestic economy added only 266,000 jobs in April, well below Bloomberg-surveyed economists' median forecast for a gain of 1,000,000. The prior two months also received net negative revisions of 78,000 jobs. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.1% from 6%, though that was paired with an above-estimate gain in the labor force participation rate, which moved from 61.5% to 61.7%, equaling a recovery high. Average hourly earnings rose 0.7% month over month, signaling lower-wage workers did not rejoin the workforce to the degree expected.

Anecdotal commentary provided by companies in recent months detailing their difficulty finding qualified job candidates evidently worked its way into the data this month in a big way. There are a few explanations for why this might be. Enhanced unemployment benefits may reduce the urgency for some to return to work. Additionally, still-closed schools and lack of child-care may make it difficult for workers to return to the in-person segments of the labor markets. And finally, March's big jump in payrolls may have represented a rehiring of workers with whom hiring managers already had relationships, such as furloughed employees. Hiring new workers requires a more rigorous, and time-consuming, vetting process.

As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, April bucked the reacceleration trend seen off the December 2020 low. Total payrolls still sit about 8.2 million below the February 2020 peak of 152.5 million, but we are still very optimistic about our ability to recapture the lion's share of those losses quickly despite today's disappointing readout.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

"The job market got a bit of a reality check this morning," explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "While we always caution against reading too far into one data release, we think most of the cited factors that suppressed April's payroll number should wear off naturally with time. We believe that despite April's speedbump the overall trend will be higher from here."

Given the magnitude of the total loss that still needs to be recovered and the varying degrees to which parts of our economy are currently open, we believe jobs data will carry the potential for strong upside surprises for at least the next several months. Improving employment trends—though choppy—buoy consumer strength, and the economy overall, given consumers' large weighting in the calculation of gross domestic product (GDP). As such, we continue to recommend positioning portfolios to take advantage of these trends, where appropriate, including an overweight allocation to equities relative to benchmarks, and a tilt toward sectors that may benefit more from a continued cyclical upturn

Let's Talk About Stocks And Higher Taxes

Our new Constitution is now established, everything seems to promise it will be durable; but, in this world, nothing is certain except death and taxes," Benjamin Franklin

First off, we hope everyone has a happy and safe Cinco de Mayo!

One of the big discussions lately has been about how will higher taxes potentially impact the stock market. We've known since President Biden won the presidency and the Democrats secured control of the House and Senate that higher taxes were coming, likely in the form of higher corporate taxes and higher capital gains taxes on the wealthy—though probably not until 2022. It is worth noting though that stocks haven't been fazed at all by all the higher taxes talk, as we just saw the best first 100 days for stocks under a new president since FDR.

With proposals for the $1.8 trillion American Families Plan (AFP) and $2 trillion plus infrastructure bill (known as the American Jobs Plan or AJP), higher taxes are needed to help finance the new spending. Let's be clear though, with a 50/50 Senate (Vice President Kamala Harris breaks ties) and historically slim Democratic majority in the House, we think these final numbers will likely come in less than $3 trillion combined, as these initial numbers from the Democrats are starting points for negotiations.

Higher capital gains taxes on the wealthy are one way to pay for things, with the AFP proposing to increase the top tax rate on ordinary income to 39.6% from 37%, and capital gains and dividends taxes on those who earn more than $1 million to a maximum of 43.4% from the current 23.8%. Fun stat, only 0.32% of the population makes more than $1 million a year, so the truth is this won't impact the other 99.68% of the population.

"We've known higher taxes were coming so this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone at this point," explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "Now here's the catch, looking back at the times that taxes increased amid a strong economy, stocks did just fine. Given the strong economic outlook this year, you'd have to think history could repeat once again."

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, in 1986 and 2013, capital gains taxes increased, but the economy was on firm footing back then, compared with the 1970s hikes, which saw an economy marred by higher inflation and sluggish growth. Not surprisingly, the two more recent hikes saw solid stock market performance, while the 1970s hikes didn't. Is it as simple as how the economy is doing? It very well could be.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Corporate taxes are currently 21% and President Biden has discussed increasing the level to 28%. Although we think in the end the level will be more like 25%, the bottom line is higher corporate taxes are likely coming, which could knock a few percentage points off of future S&P 500 Index earnings growth.

So what happens after corporate taxes are raised? As the table below shows, muted returns a year out are normal, but interestingly stocks have consistently been in the green the three months before the official date of the tax increase, suggesting investors weren't very worried about higher taxes on the horizon.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

It's always possible that higher taxes slowly take a bite out stock market returns over a longer time period than just a year, but if the concern is what all the talk about higher taxes may mean for markets over the next year, there's not much historical evidence pointing to the potential for a bad outcome. The picture is murkier, though, with corporate taxes, which isn't surprising, since stock prices are ultimately tied to earnings growth. But is often happens, markets seem to be more attuned to larger economic forces.

Individuals, Writers, and Managers All Still Bullish

The major indices are broadly lower in the past week with the exception of the Dow which has risen just over 1%. The Nasdaq on the other hand has been the worst performer falling almost 3%. Even though the major indices are split in terms of performance, sentiment has gone the way of the Dow as bullish sentiment as measured through the AAII weekly survey rose 1.7 percentage points to 44.3%. While not a particularly large increase, this week did mark the first time bullish sentiment has risen in a month.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

With bullish sentiment higher, fewer respondents reported as bearish. Only 23.1% of investors reported pessimistic sentiment; down 2.6 percentage points versus last week's reading. Just like bullish sentiment, that was not a particularly large change, and it leaves the reading in the middle of the past several weeks' range.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The inverse moves in bullish and bearish sentiment resulted in the bull-bear spread climbing 4.3 points to 21.2. While that is still at the high end of the past few years' range, it is 11 points below where it stood only two weeks ago. Looking at another sentiment survey from Investors Intelligence which targets equity newsletter writers, the bull-bear spread also rose slightly week over week leaving the spread well below levels from only a couple of weeks ago. In other words, sentiment has moderated recently, but it has not dramatically shaken a historically bullish tone.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Perhaps the most notable reading in this week's AAII survey was the reading on neutral sentiment. Up 0.7 percentage points from the prior week, it was not a particularly large gain especially compared to the 5 and 5.2 percentage point gains the previous two weeks. Regardless, moving higher once again neutral sentiment hit the highest level since the first week of March. Other than that week and the current one, there has only been one other week in the past year (second to last week of 2020) in which neutral sentiment was as high as it is now. Even though this week's reading is elevated relative to the past year, compared to the rest of the history of the survey, it is pretty unremarkable. On average over the life of the survey, neutral sentiment has averaged a reading just 0.9 percentage points lower than this week's reading.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The NAAIM Exposure Index is yet one more sentiment reading that also has shown some moderation but remains at a generally bullish level. This index reflects the average exposure to US equities of members of the National Association of Active Investment Managers. Readings of 200 would indicate they are leveraged long on average, 100 would be fully invested, 0 would be market neutral, -100 would be fully short, and -200 would be leveraged short. Last week saw this index tip above 100 for the first time since mid-February which also ranked in the top 2% of all readings going back to 2006. This week it fell 15.93 points. That stands in the bottom decile of weekly moves and was the largest drop since late March, but at 87.79, the index still points to historically bullish positioning among active managers.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE MONDAY'S MARKET OPEN!)

Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 5.10.21 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Monday 5.10.21 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Tuesday 5.11.21 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 5.11.21 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 5.12.21 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 5.12.21 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 5.13.21 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 5.13.21 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Friday 5.14.21 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Friday 5.14.21 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Palantir Technologies Inc. $19.75

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, May 11, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.04 per share on revenue of $332.23 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 9.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 34.2% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 27, 2021 there was some notable buying of 13,293 contracts of the $25.00 put expiring on Friday, June 18, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $225.31

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, May 13, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.78 per share on revenue of $27.53 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.93 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 97.78% with revenue increasing by 70.53%. Short interest has increased by 15.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.9% below its 200 day moving average of $258.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 7, 2021 there was some notable buying of 18,186 contracts of the $245.00 call expiring on Friday, May 14, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters. Workhorse Group Inc. $9.64

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Workhorse Group Inc. $9.64

Workhorse Group Inc. (WKHS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 9:00 AM ET on Monday, May 10, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.19 per share on revenue of $2.61 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.15) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 416.67% with revenue increasing by 3,007.14%. Short interest has increased by 103.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 39.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 53.3% below its 200 day moving average of $20.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 7, 2021 there was some notable buying of 8,546 contracts of the $9.50 put expiring on Friday, May 14, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 16.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Walt Disney Co $184.84

Walt Disney Co (DIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, May 13, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.28 per share on revenue of $15.86 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.43 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 53.33% with revenue decreasing by 11.93%. The stock has drifted lower by 4.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.9% above its 200 day moving average of $156.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, May 3, 2021 there was some notable buying of 5,866 contracts of the $200.00 call expiring on Friday, May 14, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Trade Desk, Inc. $661.43

Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Monday, May 10, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.77 per share on revenue of $216.90 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.92 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $214.00 million to $217.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 7.23% with revenue increasing by 35.01%. Short interest has increased by 38.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 21.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.4% below its 200 day moving average of $677.57. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 10.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

fuboTV Inc. $17.24

fuboTV Inc. (FUBO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, May 11, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.44 per share on revenue of $103.79 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.39) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $101.00 million to $103.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 193.33% with revenue increasing by 1,322.76%. The stock has drifted lower by 54.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 24.7% below its 200 day moving average of $22.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 27, 2021 there was some notable buying of 4,094 contracts of the $40.00 put and 4,052 contracts of the $40.00 call expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 16.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BioNTech SE $183.71

BioNTech SE (BNTX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, May 10, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.31 per share on revenue of $2.60 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1,757.69% with revenue increasing by 8,420.68%. Short interest has increased by 25.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 84.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 82.9% above its 200 day moving average of $100.44. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 7, 2021 there was some notable buying of 1,517 contracts of the $155.00 put expiring on Friday, May 14, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. $19.61

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, May 10, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3.33% with revenue increasing by 419,647.90%. Short interest has increased by 27.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 45.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.2% below its 200 day moving average of $26.57. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, May 3, 2021 there was some notable buying of 8,668 contracts of the $17.00 put expiring on Friday, May 21, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Airbnb, Inc. $151.21

Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, May 13, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $1.15 per share on revenue of $704.86 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($1.20) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat. The stock has drifted lower by 22.1% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 7, 2021 there was some notable buying of 5,211 contracts of the $160.00 call expiring on Friday, May 14, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

I hope you all have a wonderful Mother's Day weekend and a great week ahead r/stocks.

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Dutch govt grants $2.4 bln in subsidies to huge carbon storage project

Posted: 09 May 2021 01:02 PM PDT

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/dutch-govt-grants-24-bln-subsidies-huge-carbon-storage-project-2021-05-09/

Article for those who want a quick scroll. Companys that benefit from this are Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil, Air Products and Chemicals, and Air Liquide.

The Dutch government has granted a consortium that includes oil majors Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) and ExxonMobil (XOM.N) around 2 billion euros ($2.4 billion) in subsidies for what is set to become one of the largest carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects in the world, the Port of Rotterdam said on Sunday.

Shell and Exxon requested the subsidies in January together with industrial gas suppliers Air Liquide and Air Products (APD.N) for a project which aims to capture CO2 emitted by factories and refineries in the Rotterdam port area and store it in empty Dutch gas fields in the North Sea. read more

The companies involved have been told that their applications will be granted, port spokesman Sjaak Poppe told Reuters, confirming an earlier report by Dutch public broadcaster NOS.

This clears the most important hurdle for the project, which is set to become operational in 2024 and is expected to reduce emissions in the industrial cluster surrounding Europe's largest sea port by around 10%.

Economy ministry spokesman Dion Huidekooper declined to comment on the reports on Sunday evening.

Details of the subsidies would be made public after decisions had been taken on all applications for this year, he said, which was expected to happen later this month.

The government has said it will grant a total of 5 billion euros in subsidies in 2021 for technologies that will help it achieve its climate goals.

It received applications for a total sum of 6.4 billion euros.

The CCS subsidies are meant to compensate the companies for the extra costs of capturing the greenhouse gasses instead of emitting them, while the port will provide the necessary infrastructure to transport the carbon dioxide to the empty offshore gas fields.

Home to many large industries and Europe's main seaport, the Netherlands is among the countries with the highest emissions of greenhouse gasses per capita in Europe.

It aims to lower emissions by 55% relative to 1990 levels by 2030. Emissions were down 24.5% from 1990 levels last year.

Now I'm not sure how big a benefit this will be, but I do know the likes of Air Products and Chemicals sell CO2. Excluding the subsidy, if they can capitalise on this, they may be able to use it as a steady source of revenue, but if this proves a successful method of reducing carbon, I feel like a lot of factories will jump to this over switching energy sources, as it would save them a lot of work. Interested to hear thoughts on this though

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The love/hate mating dance of Cathie Wood (ARK) with this subreddit, her take on this correction and her strategy going forward

Posted: 09 May 2021 12:31 PM PDT

Preface: I'm not invested in any ARK funds myself. I do hold some of the stocks in her funds.

Loved by most of this subreddit in 2020. Hated by most in 2021. Yikes. In the past 3 months, correlating with the sharp drop in most of her funds (Most of them have dropped 30%+ since February), more and more people have started critizing ARK. ARK has seen outflows of more than $750 million in the last week. Now, everyone has a different take on whether her stock picks will do well or not, that's fine. I think we can all agree that 2020 has been an extraordinary year, with growth / tech / speculative stocks being the absolute winners of this mad year, mostly due to historically never before seen low interest rates, but also affected by a huge in-flow of new investors, support packages which are focused on certain sectors (Clean energy for example). More traditional sectors have underperformed last year, yet we've been seeing an institutional rotation away from speculative stocks into more value oriented names.

However, let's not forget that pretty much all ARK funds are still up 300%+ up from the beginning of 2020. And while the sectors ARK is heavily invested in outperformed hard, they are most likely primed to underperform this year as institutions rotated away with interest rates picking back up and the global economy slowly opening again. Is this a problem though? No. 300% in a year is insanity. This is a healthy correction. And while it may hurt seeing your portfolio like this, this is a good moment to remember why you invested the way you did (and also a good moment for self-reflection).

Whether the criticism she's getting lately is deserved, i'll leave that up for debate. Some of her picks are HIGHLY questionable in my opinion, yet i also see some as primed for explosive growth in the upcoming 5/10 years. She has also received a lot of criticism on here for selling her bigger blue chip stocks. Is this warranted? How does she view this correction?

"I love this setup," she said Friday on CNBC'. "The worst thing that could have happened to us is to have the market narrowly focus on just our ilk of stock — the innovation space. From our point of view — five-year time horizon — nothing has changed except the price," she said. Back in February, Wood expected a 15% compound annual rate of return from her strategies, but after the recent fall in prices, she envisions that number rising to between 25% and 30%."

In other words, she welcomes this. Now, obviously she would not say this is a disaster, as she is the fund manager. But there is also truth to her statement. Now, why does she love this setup? She sees this as an amazing buying opportunity, now that prices have dropped. But where does she get the money from? Mainly her blue chips, which is heavily debated on this sub.

"The FAANGs certainly meet that criteria — they're acting like defensives," she said. "During a period of volatility like we've just seen, we will sell those stocks and move into either our more pure-play or earlier-stage innovation companies that are being hurt by risk-off."

I actually wrote a quite comprehensive piece on this (on this subreddit as well), diving deeper into her strategy, and how she exectutes this. To read more about this, click Here.

Let's not forget that most people (even fund managers) do not beat the market over a long term (and even less on a risk-adjusted basis). ARK funds have outperformed in 2020, and will most likely underperform in the short term. Whether it will underperform in the long term, who knows. Imo, she has some holdings that i do not see a future in, and her projections and valuations are... Rich to say the least. But let's not forget she was right with her earlier Tesla valuation when everyone called her crazy. It's also possible that this correction gives her the ability to make changes in her portfolio's for favorable prices, and thus makes higher returns possible.

This is not financial advice. Do your own research.

To read more about the interview and watch it yourself, here ya go.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/cathie-wood-loves-the-set-up-for-her-stocks-after-sell-off-expects-big-returns-from-her-strategies.html

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Stocks to hold forever?

Posted: 09 May 2021 05:43 AM PDT

Hi I'm turning 19 soon and I have invested 90% of my savings since last year to have a combined net worth of little more than 13k. I currently live abroad but I expect to go back in less than a year. I use a foreign brokerage that charges me for all the transaction and exchange rate, which is quite high. So I refrain from trading as much as possible, meaning I have to hold shares for a long time to make a sizable gain. In practice, a 2-2.5% gain would break even due to currency exchange fees and taxes mostly.

My main question is if these stocks are good enough to hold for at least 5 years. Idk if I'll change my brokerage once I go back to the states or not, but if I decide to continue to use it I don't have to sell anything. I currently hold the following:

AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, PYPL, TSLA, HD, LOW, WMT, KO, VIG, JNJ, PG, ABT, COST, SBUX, TGT, ICLN

When choosing stocks I didn't really look through the financial sheets. I simply bought companies that looked relatively stable and well known anywhere I go. Let me know what you think!

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What stock do you think has the highest potential to be an outright fraud?

Posted: 09 May 2021 03:50 AM PDT

I imagine few have the unique combination of access to information and experience to be able to identify the next WorldCom or Enron but often times it starts with a feeling that something is just off. Maybe you are a supplier who is always paid late or an employee who sees something out of line.

Let's hear your theories and I'll soft through them and offer up my analysis.

You can dm me if you don't want to post publicly.

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HeWhoSleepsNot random ass weekly report for the markets 5/9/2021 edition

Posted: 09 May 2021 10:23 AM PDT

Hello Everybody! [Echo- Hello Doctor Nick!]

It's me, HewhoSleepsNot, here with another fantastic product for you and I have a question for you all at the end of the post from The infamous TeB!

So, disclaimer, this is not financial advice, we are not financial advisors, and we are certainly not YOUR financial advisors. This is a labor of love and a thought experiment. I am hoping that you all will push me further in my analysis so that I become better over time! These are just our personal thoughts and views based upon news shared out in the world.

This information is not groundbreaking but more us gathering from various sources some interesting stories, news, and tickers to share with the community! I will note where I found the material from when I can remember or when my notes include it but some are just from memory and came from places like Twitter, emails, reddit, etc.

Now lets get into it, shall we?

From the recent articles of Fortune we have some socially conscious companies and companies that are good to work for. A couple of ETF's mentioned and then one stock I pulled from this set:

ETFs: ICLN- etf focusing on clean energy, should be seeing benefits from he shift towards environmental focus for at least 2 years of full dem control and 4 years of Biden. I own a couple shares and so does my spouse. TAN- solar ETF, same rationale as above PBW- clean energy ETF, same rational as above.

Then we have $RKT [Rocket Companies, including Rocket Mortgage] Innovation in an old field. Taking care of employees exceptionally well which should pay dividends in loyalty and retention which I think is extremely valuable in the tech field. During the pandemic they gave extra free time off and made it mandatory because had noticed no one was taking PTO to stay at home and twiddle their thumbs. This should help morale and employee satisfaction and avoidance of burnout. All 24,000 employees had shares during to/prior to the IPO so they should as a majority be invested in the companies market performance personally. Yahoo 1 year price target consensus of 24.75 and it was ~22.65 so only a small upside at current prices. I may sell a cash covered put or 3 over the next few weeks to see if can make some premiums and then possibly get a block of stock with strike of 20 or below. Not sure yet. I just had some cash secured puts I sold expire OTM so will be deploying that capital this week and will include my moves in my next report. I am long a handful of shares here.

From Swaggy stock reads:

DKNG! I am long DraftKings and currently very excited to be a hodler. THe analysis in swaggy stated that they are a market leader with 20-40% market share varying by state [or sport- I forget and deleted the email so /shrug, I'm good like that]. Main competitor is FanDuel who has yet to IPO followed by Barstool and BetMGM. Online sports betting legalization is moving forward to help govt generate tax revenues. And my sports ball boy TeB likes it for the Daily Fantasy Sports and knows people who have made line ups for over 180 days straight! That is some dedication [or addiction- and we know addiction is great for reoccurring revenue even if it may not align with personal morals]

From some MarketBeat emails/website articles we have some interesting news for insider trades:

CSX director sold 1.4 million shares at an average of 100.93 worth ~142 million and now only owns 12,399 shares worth ~1.2 million. This could be a bad sign of the prospects of the company if directory bailed out of nearly ALL of his shares. Would check other insider trades for this company before taking this to the bank though for sure.

FDX CEO and MMM VP both sold small blocks of share but hold much bigger blocks so probably just wanted to put some money down on a new Ski Chalet or super car! (I own both tickers)

From market sentiment we have some facts:

RKT fell 16% Thursday following 1Q revenues rising 236% and net income up 170% but the guidance of loan volume was disappointing along with worries of rising interest rates and inflations. May be good entry point if you're bullish long term. Or may want to do what I do and make some cash flow selling cash secured puts waiting to be assigned blocks of stocks in companies you are ultimately fine holding for year+ and either sitting on or selling covered calls on to keep the cash flow coming.(I own some shares and thinking of selling short term cash secured puts depending on the premium)

Etsy was down 13% at some point despite good 1Q results because guidance for 2Q was disappointing. (Own a handful)

Corsair 6% down despite exceptional growth.

And finally, from pits most foul, the depths of my memory:

GDRX- discount pharmacy deals, makes decent money there and also making inroads into telemedicine to compete with likes of TDOC, was ~38 a share and Yahoo had a 1 yr target consensus of ~53. Should be fine as long as Pharma system not overhauled, which is certainly a concern right now.(have about a grand in here so one of my small mid positions)

AAPL- quietly making acquisitions. Instead of large blockbuster billion dollar buys of competitors like we see FB doing, or of new areas to expand in like we see AMZN do, AAPL has largely been buying smaller companies with the main goal seeming to be talent acquisition which is critical in the tech field. I'm sure you've all seen the graphic comparing AirPods revenue to entire companies and man is that intoxicating. The amount of product apple sells is INSANE, but that's why their market cap is also INSANE! I do think they have a fair chance of being the one to make one of the next big technological break throughs given their focus on talent acquisition [think AI, AR, VR]. Currently have 5-7 shares and selling cash secured put for 125 after having a stock secured call getting exercised for 127.

I am bullish on public storage companies and storage REITs as we have huge housing demand yet not enough supply, so people maybe selling houses to capture the insane mark up but not have a place to go yet or place of same size, so that's some storage business. Then we have the disparity between main and Wall Street and historically public storage does well during down turns and evictions where people are unfortunately removed from their homes and have to find someplace to store their belongings. I am long PSA and SAFE, maybe some others but I have over 200 separate tickers and didn't spend more than a minute quickly scanning trying to find all of my tickers in this space.

SCI- have about a grand here. Cemetery's and death shit. People always be dying. Just had big quarter so not sure best time to buy in. Yahoo 1 yr price consensus is 56.88 and currently ~56.71, 1.57% dividend, 19.69 P/E ratio]

AMZN I think is safe bet to keep growing and growing and growing and....growing until government intervention. One of my beta readers questioned why Bezos has been dumping a lot of his stock. My response: Cash burn at Blue Origin [private space company] has to be huge right now, so until the flights become regular and he is actually making money on space tourism this should be the reason behind much of the sales. Then again he also has access to private companies/venture caps so he's investing money in companies that he thinks will be the next big thing that none of us have access too. See: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/amazon-ceo-bezos-sells-nearly-2-billion-worth-of-amazon-shares.html (I am Long Amazon)

NFLX has incredible amount of IP and reach on hand.( I am long)

DG- another recession play. Yahoo 1 yr target consensus is 233.12, 0.78% dividend, currently ~216. (I am long)

Defensive stocks like grocery stores, essential suppliers, utility companies, etc with dividends may be safe recession plays if think the future is not as Rosey as it looks when you're 4 corona seltzers deep and just boofed some MDMA after smoking one of them blunts dipped in resin covered in keef or wtf ever the young bloods are doing these days.

CLX- i have some of this. Clorox. I think people will have germs on the mind for a while. I don't know about you all but my hand washing has gone up at least 2500% since last March, wish my gains matched! Think this focus on cleaning will last at least a couple years post pandemic. Yahoo 1 yr consensus is 191.92 and dividend of 2.46%.

This weeks question:

With American birth rates not exceeding death rates, are there any stocks you think will suffer if this trend is not continued and the population of America continues to trend downwards?

Thanks for tuning in and good luck out there!

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Google shareholders and sideliners please share your thoughts

Posted: 09 May 2021 11:49 AM PDT

As we know Google is receiving most of its money from advertising. New strategy from Apple targets "typical users" to increase their awareness regarding privacy. Are you worried? Apple can afford that with multiple streams of income and high margins.

Given we see more and more regulation towards protecting end users activity is Google in trouble?

They want us to pay for their subscription, do you think a lot of users will pay up?

What is your insight?

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Getting into stocks

Posted: 09 May 2021 08:15 AM PDT

I'm completely new to this whole thing. I took econ in HS, but didn't understand anything. I'm now 20 and wanting to build up some money to go to college. Can anyone give me some tips or tricks of the trade, or any good stocks to start investing in?

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which is your small-cap tech stock?

Posted: 09 May 2021 12:55 AM PDT

When I mean small cap, I mean that the company has a market capitalization between $300 million and $3 billion.

My stock is Kaleyra (KLR). Its an Italian company, a competitor of Twilio but in its infant stage. Its a very undervalued tech play as well: its valuation is only $380 million, compared to Twilio's massive $52 billion. Why do I pick Kaleyra, instead of Twilio, or any other competitor? It operates as a bridge in the communication process of App-Cloud-Message-Customer. A simple SMS from your bank app or Uber happens thanks to a company like Kaleyra. Also provides communications involving chatbots, verification process, voice messages, Whatsapp messages, you name it. Its a sector that keeps growing more and more and has significant barriers of entry. Here some points:

-It has a prices-to-sales ratio of 2, yes, only 2!.

-Kaleyra operates mainly in Europe, India, and its gaining ground in the US thanks to a very recent acquisition. It has a lot of know-how in the financial industry.

-It is cash-flow positive.

-It has among its clients Twilio. Yeah, its main competitor has been its client. Plus other 3500 enterprise customers.

-It got its debut last year in Wall Street. With the acquisition of Mgage, its projected to double its revenue in a year or less. The stock price has suffered lately, no bad news whatsoever, just affected by the market in general and shorters: 15% of its stocks are shorted.

-Twilio is the absolute leader of this sector, with a better growth rate and better margins. However, a company like Kaleyra, with such a small valuation and great growth prospects, offers a potential multi-bagger possibility in a shorter time. Next earning report is next Monday.

This is not financial advice. Do your own research. Whats your small-cap tech stock?

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VTIP - inflation ETF

Posted: 09 May 2021 12:13 PM PDT

Hi. I am considering this for a college fund. Will need money in 3 years (possibly). Anything I should be aware of? Any feedback? The goal in this account isn't to grow but to preserve. I can't lose it.

EDIT: this is for 529 plan. So unfortunately not much to chose from.

Thank you.

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Market Events May 10 - 14

Posted: 09 May 2021 11:56 AM PDT

 #Tuesday, May 11, 2021

07:00

OPEC Monthly Report

08:00

EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

Tentative

OPEC Monthly Report