• Breaking News

    Thursday, March 4, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Thread on Meme Stocks Thursday - Mar 04, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Thread on Meme Stocks Thursday - Mar 04, 2021


    r/Stocks Daily Thread on Meme Stocks Thursday - Mar 04, 2021

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 02:30 AM PST

    The familiar "Rate My Portfolio" sticky can be found here.


    Welcome traders who just can't help them selves discuss the same exact stock that's been discussed 100s of times a day. I get it, you want to talk about what's popular, what's hot, and that 1.. single.. stock you like.. well here you go! Some helpful links just for you:

    An important message from our mod u/TCGYT regarding meme stocks.

    Lastly if you need professional help:
    * Problem Gambling: Call/Text: 1-800-522-4700 or chat online now.
    * Crisis Hotline (24/7): 1-800-273-TALK (8255) (Veterans, press 1) or Text "HOME" to 741-741

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
    [link] [comments]

    r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Mar 04, 2021

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 02:30 AM PST

    This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on stock options, but if options aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against options here and not in the current post.

    Some helpful day to day links, including news:


    Required info to start understanding options:

    • Call option Investopedia video basically a call option allows you to buy 100 shares of a stock at a certain price (strike price), but without the obligation to buy
    • Put option Investopedia video a put option allows you to sell 100 shares of a stock at a certain price (strike price), but without the obligation to sell

    See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

    Call option - Put option - Exercising an option - Strike price - ITM - OTM - ATM - Long options - Short options - Combo - Debit - Credit or Premium - Covered call - Naked - Debit call spread - Credit call spread - Strangle - Iron condor - Vertical debit spreads - Iron Fly

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is delta," then google "investopedia delta" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
    [link] [comments]

    To whoever just posted about having suicidal thoughts (or to anyone else feeling down)

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 04:24 AM PST

    Please realize that no amount of money is worth losing your life over. If you're feeling stuck, I promise you there's a way out. Ask yourself: what do you like to do? Do you like people? Look for a sales job and work your way up. Do you like traveling? Try and save some money, move to Latin America (edit: or somewhere else abroad) and teach kids English while living in a much more affordable tropical place. Feeling isolated? Reach out to one person who you would be happy to talk to. There are always solutions.

    I know it's easy to feel isolated, especially now. But I love each and every one of you, and I don't even have to know you personally because you are all my brothers and sisters from a cosmic perspective.

    If anyone is feeling down, please DM me and id be happy to chat. No one should suffer alone.

    Edit: so happy to see so much love on this post. Thank you all for the awards.

    Also, I am not trying to offer a one size fits all solution to depression/anxiety. I was in a very dark place after my sister died and was dealing with a bunch of external pressures that exacerbated my anxiety/depression. I am just trying to give EXAMPLES of questions one COULD ask themselves if they are feeling stuck, from my perspective.

    I may be overly optimistic, but I believe the universe has a place for each of us and no harm can come from continuing to hope for a better tomorrow. Peace and love my brothers and sisters.

    Second edit: This post goes out to all people suffering from anxiety/depression and/or suicidal thoughts and is not just limited to those who are active in the stock market. Love you all

    submitted by /u/foreverexistential96
    [link] [comments]

    Warren Buffet's stock strategy is more relevant now than ever.

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 08:14 AM PST

    Over the last couple of weeks, there have been dozens of posts deliberating whether or not to sell growth/tech stocks that have been dropping recently and switch over to "re-opening" or value plays. The key take away here has to be this:

    If a 10% drop in a stock makes you wonder whether or not you should sell that stock, you should have never bought that stock in the first place.

    Contrary to popular belief, stocks do not always go up. In fact, most stocks fail to beat the market in the long-term, with few exceptions. Buffet makes this clear. A good stock is not considered good just because it may do well in the next year, or because it has shown growth in the past. It is only a good buy if it has value beyond a short-term horizon, and most importantly, IF YOU BUY AT THE RIGHT PRICE. If you had bought GE at its peak, a company that is invested in all aspects of life and won't ever disappear, you would be down nearly 75%. Why is this? Is GE a bad company, with bad products, or a shrinking customer base? No, you would have just bought in at a price that was unjustifiable.

    Think of this scenario, you are the owner of a snack shop. Summer is coming up, so you decide to invest in significant inventory of ice cream. After all, people will purchase frozen desserts in the hot summer days, right? This can't possibly bad investment. So you go to your supplier, and he offers you a price of $100 per pint of ice-cream. What would you do? Would you buy just because ice-cream is guaranteed to sell in the future? No, not unless customers were willing to pay more than $100 per pint.

    Conversely, your next-door competitor decides to invest in inventory of hot chocolate. This is ridiculous to you, who would buy hot chocolate in the summer? However, your neighbor buys in at $0.10 per cup of hot chocolate for his supply. Once summer is over, you sell out of your inventory, but at a loss because no one is willing to buy ice cream at more than $10 a pint. Then winter comes, and guess who profits more?

    The point here is that being right about a trend is not enough if the price you buy in at is not the right one. If your belief in a stock is rattled because it drops a little bit, you did not believe in the price in the first place. If this scares you enough, you are better off sticking to index funds and filtering out the noise. There is nothing wrong with that, picking stocks is hard, and there is no guarantee that you will come out on top.

    My two cents is this: lumping tech into one single asset class is absurd, and calling companies like Amazon and Microsoft "growth" stocks is disingenuous if you lump in Palantir and Tesla in that same category. The market right now is doing just that, however, in the sense that high-PE growth stocks like Tesla are dropping alongside with Apple. In my opinion, all this is doing in the long-run is that you are buying tried-and-true blue chips at a discount.

    Kohl's is not going to be larger in 10 years than it is now, and its price now does not make it a good buy. Conversely, just because Tesla will be huge in the future does not mean that buying it at a PE of 1000+ is a wise investment. Re-opening plays are just market chatter. Cruise lines have tremendous debt, banks are tied to risky-credit loans and government regulation, and oil companies are at the mercy of an overseas oil cartel. Just because they are outperforming now, does not mean they will be a good buy if the current price does not reflect their value in the long-term.

    Buy into valuable companies (future growth, good price) at a discount, ignore short-term market sentiment, and invest in index funds if you do not feel strong enough convictions in your stock picks.

    submitted by /u/TayahuaJ
    [link] [comments]

    Breathe - This is the stock market.

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 11:51 AM PST

    2nd September 2020 - 24th September 2020: the S&P 500 dropped 9.33%

    23rd October 2020 - 30th October 2020: It dropped 5.64%

    16th November, it rallied 11% from the 30th October

    If you'd invested on 2nd September, it would've taken you till November 13th to go green again.

    Now that's just the S&P500, I can't say for EV and Tech stocks on their own but the point still stands. Think why you've invested in the stocks you've chosen. Have you just gone off random advice on reddit without doing DD, or do you see a bright future for your companies?

    Yes, the market is overvalued, yes there's warning signs of a crash, people panicking, media stirring it up, but the reality is no one knows what's going to happen next. All you can do is judge your situation based on your own circumstances.

    If you've lost a lot of money recently in your portfolio you have two options, realise your losses and accept it and learn from it, or wait a few months or years and hope that your portfolio recovers. The option you choose depends on when you need your money, and how risky your stocks are and how much you can afford to lose. People love to see the upside of things but rarely factor in the downside. This is your downside, you need to judge how much more of it you can take.

    If you've found it incredibly stressful watching your portfolio be in the red, maybe you need to reevaluate whether investing is for you or the kind of investing you're doing or educate yourself on how to invest better, there's lots of free resources out there to learn about analyzing stocks, what metrics to look at, etc.

    If you're a beginner investor, keep it simple, don't just jump on the bandwagon or make trades you don't fully understand. You need some sort of system to follow to take your emotions out of the equation as much as possible.

    It's easier said than done but I'd urge everyone to be careful, leveraged trading, shorting and not diversifying are all surefire ways to land yourself in trouble.

    Do I think the stock market is about to crash or begin a long term bear market? No I don't but no one can be 100% certain. If there is a crash, it's likely that things will rally soon after. If you're scared to lose more than you can afford, then maybe cut some of your losses but if you can afford to wait and you believe in the stocks you've chosen then sit tight and it will all be alright.

    TL;DR - be sensible with your investments, do your own research and don't assume the worst right now. As long as you're diversified sufficiently and are using money you don't need soon then you'll be OK in the long term.

    submitted by /u/naturalfractal
    [link] [comments]

    PSA: Buy and hold only works if the stock is actually good

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 04:24 AM PST

    Disclaimer: I am not predicting a crash or a correction, but am merely stating my opinion IF it does happen.

    The premise of buying and holding is that you are buying companies with good fundamentals and poised for continued growth in future. I have seen a lot of people on many posts saying that 'they have done they DD' which honestly is probably 30 mins on checking Reddit and Stocktwits for bullish sentiments instead of really downloading and reading the company's financial records, future growth prospects etc.

    I think it is a good time to evaluate if your stock can handle a huge drop in price and still allows you to have conviction to keep holding. A lot of stocks are down 20-30%+ or more from their ATHs at this point, and if a crash or correction does happen (I believe NASDAQ is at or very near correction territory at about -10% from ATH), it's going to see one crazy drop of -10-30% in a single day just like what happened in March.

    Can you handle it? If you can, the stock is a conviction pick for you. If not, perhaps consider buying something that you have truly done DD in. I have certain holdings that I believe to be dangerous when a correction or crash comes, like NIO, NET and JD (NET and JD have a growing consumer base and they will continue to grow, but at current market cap I deem it to be dangerous. NIO is super dangerous but it's house money at this point since I got in at 15$ and sold more than half at 44$ long ago) But I got them at prices low enough to be able to withstand it even if they dropped more, they are a smaller % of my portfolio and I am willing to risk a loss for a more aggressive approach.

    I also have holdings which I will definitely add more if a crash does happen,like MWK and DIS. Tech is never going to be irrelevant after Covid, the transition to value stocks is temporary and it's clear to me, so I am still ever so bullish on tech stocks and e-commerce.

    It's obvious no one can be unaffected when you see your NLV drop, and that much is the same for me. However, at the end of the day, if this stock is something viable for years, buy and hold works, if it was a one time hype, reconsider your approach. I never got into green energy stocks because they are either mostly unprofitable or have no working product. Climate change and all is real, but it takes a lot of time to get there. Oil is still going to be a huge deal for decades regardless and I am quite tired of people having done 'DD' in some holdings that do not make any sense.

    Part of my holdings are aggressive,which makes it more volatile during a market correction. But ALL of my holdings are at least generating revenue and have a product that is being sold that I personally find to be indicative of what they are accomplish in future. I can never ever buy into a company that makes no revenue and I can only respect the balls of people who buys into such companies because they have strong belief that the company will be successful in that venture. If they buy at a point when the company is still in development, they definitely deserve a much better % in profits. I can never do that personally myself because I am not that ballsy.

    The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel is a GREAT book that was released last year and talks about handling your money in the stock market. Please read it if you can, great book, has definitely helped me to manage my emotions in the stock market. No one loves taking a beating everyday, but some things are worth holding on to.

    I was there during march and all my holdings took a minimally 27% (I remember this number specifically because I was counting numbers that day) dive in a single day, I never sold and we recovered. It is great to buy and hold, statistics and numbers shows that it beats timing the market, but if only works if the company isn't some overhyped unicorn crap. Please stay safe everyone and I hope for this to turn positive soon like everyone does. Ultimately, you invest in consideration for your family (especially those married and with kids), so do not put money that you cannot afford to lose. Best of luck to everyone!

    submitted by /u/Maverick_WC
    [link] [comments]

    I said it yesterday, I'll say it again, if you can put more money in your account, nows the time

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 10:07 AM PST

    These corrections don't come around often. I'm not even sure if it's done yet, but now is the perfect opportunity to lower your cost average. With stimulus checks around the corner, you're not losing by buying in now. The stock market isn't going anywhere, anytime soon.

    Edit: Disclosure: I am not a financial advisor.

    submitted by /u/RowanHarley
    [link] [comments]

    Shorted a stock for the first time

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 07:41 PM PST

    I'm generally a long investor and have been in the market for a couple years now. I've realized that some stocks were way overvalued à few weeks ago. Yesterday morning I took a short position on Zoom (ZM), 50 shares @ 427. I've always been turned off by the idea of shorting because losses are theoretically infinite but the stock is so overvalued and after thorough research by myself I finally decided to put money on it. (not financial advice)

    As I predicted, it went down, but way more than I expected, and at $340 I bought the shares back to close out the position. Although the gains aren't much, and this aspect of trading is new to me, I am pleased with my research. I'm gonna stick with long trading for the time being, because shorting is still a sketchy tactic which, I'll be honest, still kinda spooks me

    Edit: For everyone saying I should've gotten put options:

    1) You're right, and I realize that now, in hindsight

    2) I honestly didn't expect it to tank this quickly. Logic deemed it would but I expected it'd be over the course of weeks, not hours. The tolerance I had given myself (in case the price went up by a certain amount), would in essence be the same as the premium on an option, and

    3) I'm not very experienced in options trading, other than selling CC's on my own shares

    submitted by /u/theGuacFlock
    [link] [comments]

    Notes to Long Term Investing Self

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 08:53 AM PST

    I've been in the market for over a year now, and I've made some terrible decisions, but recently, I've decided to just take a chill pill and stop trying to make a quick buck and instead focus on the long run scheme of things. At some points, I was up big in my portfolio, but greed put me back at loss. And at some points, I was down big in my portfolio, but fear kept me at that loss. I'd like to say that over the year, I've grown in understanding what works for me and how I plan to switch things up, but I'm still relatively new, and as always, there's room for improvement. Anyways, here's the main set of notes I've set for myself:

    1. Be prepared for a market correction. Never ever dump your entire cash into the market all at once. Generally, I like to keep around 6 months worth of emergency and dump into the market consistently every 2 weeks. Now with the constant dips, I'm buying a bit more aggressively, but that's also possible because I had a stash saved for this moment. At the end of the day, you don't want to be the dude that sees the dip but can't buy anything and just has to hold. Sure, they'll probably end up in the green in the long run, but they'll also experience pain knowing the market presents a great opportunity that they can't buy into.
    2. As the market corrects, incrementally dump some money into it. Don't put everything into the market in one shot. Nobody knows fundamentally how long the correction is. Hell, last week when things started to go back up, I made the silly mistake of thinking the market was done correcting for the most part and dumped money that I was planning on saving for this week, but of course it dipped back. Thankfully, I have extra cash to buy in this week as well. But, please do understand that the market never goes up or down in a straight line curve. It zigzags its way across. One day it's up, another day it's down, and sometimes it's more from either side.
    3. Don't listen to fools on the Internet. People that tell you that the stock market is going to completely plummet to ground zero and never recover. Treat these people as ignorant bots that are programmatically regurgitating info that has no substantiation. If you look back in history, rarely ever did the market plummet heavily, and even in all situations in which it did, it went back right up over the years.
    4. Don't try to switch back and forth between stocks as they fluctuate. I'm guilty of this, but I've made it a deal with myself to stop this behavior because (1) it'll probably screw up your taxes and (2) you'll probably end up losing more than winning because the reality of the matter is that you can't time the market. The market is irrational, and just when you think you've understood it, it can backstab you and put you in tough financial situations.
    5. Stop looking at the prices. It'll only hurt you more by making you panic and pushing you towards irrational decisions. Hell, in one of my accounts, I had a position in one stock at $36.00 average for a heavy amount of shares, and the market dipped to $27.00 last week. Had I opened the account then, I sure as hell would have been tempted to cut my losses, but I didn't open my account, and just as it recovered earlier this week at $38-39, I was able to get out in profit. Big difference, see what I mean?
    6. Understand the value and potential of companies whose stocks you're investing in. As a company's stock bleeds, it only comforts you knowing that the sell-off is temporary and that because the company will do great things in the future, the price should go back up. However, if you're blindly riding the hype, then when stocks dip, you're more likely to selling at a loss than re-evaluating your purpose in purchasing that stock and whether or not it will recover. See r/Nio and you'll see both types of people. Some know the true value and are holding on while others who jumped in based on hype are panicking big time. To be able to sleep well at night and not worry so much, you need to understand the reason you invest money in such companies.
    7. Diversify. I personally can't do this one so well because there's a lot of religious restrictions on what I can buy versus what I can't. But for the normal person, they can really buy into any stock that they'd like to so long as they have the financial ability to do so. With that said, try to invest in multiple sectors such that if one goes down, others may potentially rise and make your losses look less painful.
    8. Evaluate the situation we're in. Taxes, inflation, bond yields, etc. What do these mean to the market? Which stocks will likely drop versus which will slowly go upward? Sure, you can't be 100% correct on these decisions, but they should help guide towards more good decisions than bad over time.
    9. Lastly, in the famous words of Warren Buffet, "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful." Now, as the market bleeds and people are being fearful, you need to be greedy and invest more. As I said in points (1) and (2) though, don't quickly dump all your money into the market. Just incrementally dollar cost average and then enjoy the ride upward once the market recovers.

    That being said, I wish you all the best of tendies. If you have other advice, feel free to dump it in this thread for others to see.

    submitted by /u/kids_eat_drugs
    [link] [comments]

    NIO, JAC to establish joint venture to build mass market car with NIO holding 49% of shares

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 07:13 AM PST

    JAC Motor said Thursday it signed a letter of intent today with $NIO Holdings Ltd. to set up a joint venture.

    The company, to be located in Hefei, is tentatively named Jianglai Advanced Manufacturing Technology (Anhui) Co (江来先进制造技术(安徽)有限公司). The name takes the first character of JAC's Chinese name and the second character of NIO's Chinese name.

    The company plans to have a registered capital of 500 million yuan ($77 million ), with JAC contributing 51 percent and NIO 49 percent.

    The company's board of directors will consist of five directors, three to be appointed by JAC and two by NIO. The chairman will be appointed by JAC and the vice chairman will be appointed by $NIO.

    The joint venture will build a new ecology of "advanced manufacturing + industrial internet" with automation, networking and platform, relying on industrial internet and manufacturing management experience, JAC said.

    The purpose of the joint venture is to integrate the advantages of JAC and NIO in manufacturing, production operation, quality control, supply chain management, to serve the manufacturing operation of products scientifically, JAC said.

    The business scope of the joint venture includes manufacturing, R&D and sales of electric vehicles and components; supply chain management; technical consulting and personnel training related to intelligent electric vehicles.

    JAC emphasizes that the letter of intent for the joint venture is not legally binding and does not constitute an offer, and the two sides strive to agree and sign a formal agreement as soon as possible.

    This is the latest move by NIO to try to enter the lower-priced EV market with a new brand, and it looks more promising than any previous moves.

    In April 2017, NIO signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Changan Automobile, planning to set up a joint venture to develop new products together. The agreement at the time noted that the cooperation was different from JAC NIO's OEM model.

    On August 17, 2018, the joint venture company Changan NIO was officially settled in Nanjing Jiangning Development Zone, with William Li, founder, chairman, and CEO of NIO as chairman of Changan NIO and Li Wei, executive vice president of Changan Automobile, as vice chairman.

    In December 2017, GAC Group and NIO signed a strategic cooperation agreement, and in April 2018, GAC NIO was officially established.

    However, so far, Changan NIO has not yet presented any new vehicle plans or clear development plans.

    Source

    submitted by /u/kayaarr
    [link] [comments]

    Stop panicking, its going to be ok

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 08:06 AM PST

    First of all, when you think about it, Nasdaq only lost 7% in a month. That means the huge majority of smart money is still holding and doesn't think there's a reason to panic. When smart money panics, you have the covid crash.

    Secondly, its important to understand why there is so much red recently. The main reason is the fear due to the rising 10 year old treasury yield. When we woke up this morning, it did spike in a scary way, but now its going back down sharply, we are fine: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX?p=^TNX&.tsrc=fin-srch

    Now, even if this stupid 10 year old treasury yield did not go down, most people would agree these fears are irrational. Check this quick interview: https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/video/philadelphia-fed-harker-don-t-011809466.html

    Historically, the rates, they go down, not up. The fear of massive interest rates are irrational, and as i said earlier, its only ~7% of people who are pulling out of nasdaq, that's a small number of people who's irrationally fearful. Feds have been under their target of 2% for a LONG time, they aren't concerned about this.

    Additionally, Biden agreed to tighten the covid stimulus requirements. This is good news because it means its less likely to over heat the economy beyond control. And when that stimulus does get released, its hard to imagine it won't at least give a small boost to the markets.

    I also think we need to look at the bright side. Historically, most crash happens when the market overheat. Corrections like we are having right now help avoid a real full breakdown of the market, and they help buy cheaper dips.

    I also think there is a decent chance our buddy JPow props up the market today with his speech ;)

    submitted by /u/Floofyboy
    [link] [comments]

    Just because a company is awesome doesn't mean the stock is a buy

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 08:28 AM PST

    I see this all the time with Tesla, NIO, SHOP and other meme stocks. The underlying company might be absolutely fantastic but that doesn't mean you should buy it's stock. Like for example a Ferrari is a fantastic car and MSRP is 100,000. But I am not going to pay 200,000 for it. And you shouldn't pay double what the financials can support. Stocks are the same way your at the end of the day your buying assets, liabilities, brand, growth and cash flow. Overpaying on a stock is overpaying regardless.

    Here is a good practice get a bunch of 10ks together from random companies and determine what a good stock price would be without looking at the actual price.

    submitted by /u/vin17285
    [link] [comments]

    Amazon Stock Price

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 07:19 AM PST

    It boggles my mind that the busiest company on Earth run by the richest guy on the planet, that blew sales and earnings completely out of the water, would have a lower stock price today than when I bought it 8 f-in months ago

    submitted by /u/facegun
    [link] [comments]

    Lemonade Due Diligence Post - DON'T Buy the Dip

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 10:29 AM PST

    Hi Everyone, below is a post about Lemonade, which has fallen 30%+ over the past few days. There's a lot of hype around the stock, but based on my diligence, I think investors should not buy the dip.

    Q4 2020 Financial Results - The Good Stuff

    • I want to start this post actually with the positives for the company from the latest earnings. Numbers are from their latest shareholder letter
    • From 2019-2020, Lemonade's in force premium, increased by 87% from $114 million to $213 million
      • This was driven by higher premiums per customer ($213 in Q4 2020 vs $177 in Q4 2019) and an impressive 56% year-over-year increase in number of customers (which now sits at ~1 million)
        • If you're not familiar with insurance, premiums are just the amount customers pay each month, so if you pay $10 a month for renter's insurance, your monthly premium is $10
        • The in force premium is annualized, so in our previous example, your in force premium would be $10 a month times 12 months which equates to $120 for your in force premium
      • Lemonade started off as a disruptive rentals insurance company but has since then launched new products including homeowners, pets, and life insurance and this is how the company has been able to increase the premium it charges per customer by cross-selling its products to the same customer
    • The company also grew their gross earned premium to $50 million which represents a 92% year over year increase
      • Gross earned premium represents the amount of the in force premium Lemonade collects once the service is fully delivered
      • So for example, if a customer pays $10 on January 1st for 1 month of rental insurance, Lemonade's gross earned premium is $0 and only becomes $10 once the full month of January has passed
    • The company's annual gross loss ratio also fell from 79% to 71% (Q4 2019 to Q4 2020), signaling better operating margins
    • Basically, Lemonade has experienced an increasing customer base, has been charging more per customer, leading to higher in force premiums
    • In addition to this, management strongly hinted that it's working on a new product that will launch later this year, and it's most likely going to be car insurance (watch towards the end of this video from CNBC with LMND's CEO)
      • This could be a significant revenue driver for the company and I do like that Lemonade is expanding aggressively into multiple products as long as the company can grow its customer base

    Q4 2020 Financial Results - The Bad Stuff

    • The first thing I need to do is set the stage by explaining the company's sky-high valuation to explain why the stock plummeted 16% after earnings
      • Right before earnings, the company was trading at $132 per share, which gave the company a market cap of $8.5BN. Adjusting for the company's cash of $1.2BN (incorporates company's latest follow-on offering), the company had an enterprise value of $7.2BN
      • In the most recent quarter, the company guided to a midpoint of $115.5 million in 2021 revenue. This meant Lemonade was trading at a 63x 2021 revenue multiple, which is higher than pretty much all of the fastest growing software companies in the world
        • Here's a list of some of the fastest growing software companies in the world for reference
      • But that's the thing, Lemonade is NOT a software company. Many hype investors forget that it's an insurance company first and foremost
        • The most obvious proof of this is in the company's gross margins which jumped in the latest quarter to 37%, but for the full year of 2020 was at a very sub-par 26% (vs. 70%+ for a good software company)
    • Given that Lemonade is trading at a revenue multiple higher than pretty much all of the best software companies, Lemonade really needed to crush earnings in order to propel its stock further. It did not:
      • While customers have increased year over year by 56%, if you take a closer look at the quarter by quarter data, Lemonade added ~60K new customers, which is the smallest increase in the past 2 years
      • In addition, to all of this, about a quarter of Lemonade's customers are in Texas, which as you probably know was recently hit with a huge power outage
        • In the latest earnings call, management stated that there will be a spike in its gross loss ratio but no material affects to its financials, which I personally find a little hard to believe
      • Some may also point to the company's improvement in its operating expense margin when compared to its gross earned premium and it's true that it's gone from negative 156% to negative 89% (lol)
        • But the $44.5 million spent in Q4 2020 earned the company a total of just $7.5 million in gross profit (pretty terrible unit economics)
        • Personally, I'm okay with companies during their growth stages spending tons of cash and being unprofitable, but given Lemonade's slowing customer growth and poor gross and operating margins, Lemonade's insanely high valuation cannot be justified
    • Combined with all this, I do have to mention that the stock is also largely down the recent jump in bond yields, which punishes growth stocks, especially the ones overvalued

    What I Think Lemonade's Stock Price Should Be

    • If we take a look at some of the fastest growing tech stocks in the world, of which all are growing quickly and have gross margins in the 70s or above, then I think it's safe to say that at maximum, Lemonade deserves to be trading at a 35x next twelve months (i.e. 2021) sales which I think is still generous
      • If we assume a 35x 2021 sales multiple, then given LMND's guidance of 2021 revenue to $115.5mm (midpoint of $114-$117mm), then we get to an enterprise value of ~$4BN
        • After we add back $1.2BN in cash, we get to an estimated market cap of $5.3BN which when you divide by Lemonade's fully diluted shares comes out to a $82.68 share price which represents a ~13% drop (LMND currently trades at $93 at time of post)
      • But, I think 35x is a really generous multiple given that the company's growth is in question and has poor margins and believe the company should be truly trading closer to 20x, which gives us a share price of $55.57
    • Now do I think the stock will go down to $55? I think if bond yields continue to push higher and we have a big tech correction, I definitely think it's possible but probably not likely given how irrational the market has been these past few years
      • Also, any reversal in bond yields will likely push the stock up but I believe over time, the stock will fall to a more reasonable level into the ~70s and so I personally do not recommend buying the dip

    TLDR: LMND is growing impressively but has terrible unit economics and valuation is far too ahead of itself (even with the recent dip).

    submitted by /u/rareliquid
    [link] [comments]

    Don't sell. Here's a plan

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 11:09 AM PST

    Listen, this sucks. You have the right to be sad. Don't let anyone on the internet denounce your feelings. We're all in the same boat. I am down 25% and it fucking stings. Some of you might, like myself, have thought about selling. Don't. It's too late. This was a very harsh correction but things are looking bright. Don't buy the dip. Wait. Let SPY hit $370-371. And it will. We broke all the major support levels and next up is $370-371. If we go lower, which we probably won't, then brace yourself for another downfall. But if we stay there, buy good companies. If you can, hedge your positions.

    Let the market cool off until you buy anything. 10-year yields went higher after the Powell interview and it can potentially go even higher.

    Hopefully we'll leave this behind us, being even better investors/traders. Please take care of yourself.

    submitted by /u/Sablac
    [link] [comments]

    A index fund spiritual awakening.

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 06:14 AM PST

    I thought I was one of the 'intelligent' few that could pick stocks and it would work out well. Well I was wrong, i'm lucky to have made money on the silly stock but now that money is bagholding in various things because of shit decisions fueled by ignorance and FOMO.

    I choose the boomer way of investing in a index tracker fund. Better sleep, less stress and I get to laugh on the sidelines instead of realising i'm one of the idiots.

    TLDR: An index fund spiritual awakening.

    submitted by /u/bl4idd
    [link] [comments]

    PSA - Your ENTIRE Portfolio Doesn’t Have To be Tech Stocks!

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 10:37 AM PST

    I thought this was a captain obvious PSA but apparently not. I've been seeing numerous comments about accounts being down 30-50% over the past month, which absolutely blows my mind. I'm going to sound like a boomer here, but situations like this month is why you have lower beta stocks or ETFs, like the... SPY! sure, your upside is limited relative to QQQ or ARKK, but there's less downside risk as well. If you take the huge 30-50% drawdown, it becomes even more difficult to Get back to where you were.

    disclaimer - not a financial advisor, just like the stock market, etc etc

    submitted by /u/Joetheschmoe2k18
    [link] [comments]

    Anyone else not looking at their portfolio for a month for their own mental sanity?

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 04:04 PM PST

    The past few weeks of red have destroyed my holdings. My portfolio went from being up 55% down to only up 2% in less than a month. Many people are saying this "correction" could only continue the next couple weeks. I'm shutting my apps off until April or until the stimulus passes. Whichever comes first. Seeing all of this red and the losses sucks and it's doing me no good to continue looking at red every day. I've already averaged down what I could with what money I had. I know they'll rebound eventually. And that's why I'm not looking. I can't do anything about it so I'm just going to let it do what it's going to do and focus on other things until then. Just gotta wait for those greener days ahead. They're coming, just gotta be patient.

    submitted by /u/MTGKozan
    [link] [comments]

    The boring stocks, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, all barely dipping

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 09:23 AM PST

    So all you new traders talked about how these companies do not have enough "gains." Look at it now. It's barely dipped, much less volatile. That is what will happen when we actually crash too. You're going to see 80% crashes in the future, but that's not going to be these companies. Yes you'll see it go down too, but not as dramatically.

    submitted by /u/DrixlRey
    [link] [comments]

    No need to panic

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 10:51 AM PST

    Why is the market tanking in recent weeks?

    First, what it isn't: Treasury yields. Don't listen to the news. This just means that no one wants to buy bonds so the price of bonds is going down to attract new investors. This happens in a healthy economy. Can't believe the fake news is really pushing this.

    What I would see if this was anything other than a correction:

    Consumer cyclical and natural resource holdings would increase with major investment firms. Positions in small cap stocks would decrease. Real estate holdings would increase.

    How I know these things aren't happening:

    It's best to track these activities through major firms and ETFs. I track SPY's holdings daily. They have teams of analysts and resources I just don't have. They're the first to know. I do not watch the news for financial information.

    So what is it?

    I see firms reorganizing portfolio's for a post-C19 market. IE, aerospace and defense stocks are going up in the same time the Nasdaq was down 9%. Travel stocks like JetBlue are also doing well in that time frame.

    When will it stop?

    Who knows, but it couldn't have been expected and it's too late to sell high and buy low now. I'm waiting it out. I have been increasing positions with remaining cash but I'm out going forward.

    Will tech rebound?

    Yes. New tech is where the money is. I see strong cross-sector growth continuing through Q3 this year. Q1 industrial is very strong so far. Many of these up and coming tech companies are going to be pushing into their manufacturing phases.

    How bonds work since many don't understand (I don't blame them):

    The "price" of bonds go down as demand goes up and goes up when the demand goes down. Think of it this way, the lower I sell my bond, the less money I have to spend in the long run as a bond "seller". As a buyer, I get more money if I buy a bond with a high rate of return vs low. So you won't sell many bonds with a low rate. Thus, if bonds need to be sold, the rate goes up. This is an indication that no one is buying them and the money is likely going to the market or being held as cash. Thus, a yield from a bond is how much money you'll make based on the rate of return. This is reflected in the Treasury Yield curve. The curve itself reacts faster with short-term bonds than long-term bonds. If they cross, this can be a bad indication of rapid market changes. The safest investment in the entire world is a US Treasury Bond. That's for two main reason: first, it's never lost anyone money; second, the US has the ability to tax the wealthiest population on the planet if anything happens. So what that means, people put their money in US bonds when they think things aren't going well. When things are going well, they get out of them and put the money back in the market.

    submitted by /u/Ok-Midnight9757
    [link] [comments]

    Millionaires have been selling their Tesla stocks (including Kimbal Musk)

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 12:28 PM PST

    Billionaire investor Ron Baron's firm sold 1.8 million Tesla shares despite saying price will hit $2,000

    "Baron has diversified his investments regarding electric and autonomous vehicles outside of Tesla. Most notably, he said his firm is an investor in privately held EV start-up Rivian – an upcoming rival to Tesla – as well as Cruise, an autonomous vehicle company that's majority-owned by General Motors. Baron said his firm purchased more than 1.2 million shares of Cruise for $10 million in January. Without naming any companies, Baron said he's speculative of other EV start-ups. Several other companies have or are planning to go public through reverse mergers with special purpose acquisition companies. "If you think all these companies starting up are going to make it, I think it's a dream," Baron said. "I think it's astonishing they're getting so much capital.""

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/kimbal-musk-sells-25-million-worth-of-tesla-shares.html

    submitted by /u/_bono983
    [link] [comments]

    To everyone who is holding

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 11:08 AM PST

    guys seriously dont worry. I am absolutely chilled. You should be as well.

    If you invested into a good company there is mininal chance this dip will affect it in a long run... As long as you are not in a need of the money there is no reason to sell or to feel threatened...

    I hope you chose a good company 🤞😅 If you did , dont worry, we are in this together 👊

    Stay strong and patient ( and chilled)

    submitted by /u/zakus5599
    [link] [comments]

    Corsair Due Diligence ($CRSR)

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 01:27 PM PST

    Warnings: I own a few shares of Corsair, my evaluation may be biased. I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. This is the first DD I've posted, I probably messed something up.

    TL;DR at the bottom.

    This is the first DD I'm posting, let me know anything I should fix.

    Who is Corsair?

    Corsair is a company that makes computer components such as fans, power supplies, SSDs, cases, coolers, RAM, and other peripherals. Since the pandemic, the gaming industry has seen huge growth with an influx of people looking for ways to spend time and the new dependence on home computers. It is my opinion that even after the pandemic, many will continue to purchase computer components and many will continue to work from home if possible.

    News.

    Recently, Corsair has acquired Visuals by Impulse. Visuals is a streamer's tool to create overlays and alerts on their stream. With some streamers making millions of dollars per year, there is no doubt that streaming is an appealing prospect. In recent years, the number of active streamers has gone from around 3 million to 9 million with no signs of slowing down. The streaming industry is just getting started.

    Streamers Per Year:

    https://imgur.com/a/WPUFhoE

    Corsair also released its earnings report on February 9th. Corsair beat their estimate but not expectations, so the stock dipped right after earnings from $44.70 down to $33.68 today. The tech selloff over the week has also affected the stock greatly. Other than that, the stock has been relatively quiet.

    Income and Revenue.

    Corsair makes a majority of its revenue, $1.7bn up 55% from last year, from selling PC components(~69%), and a good chunk of revenue comes from peripherals(~31%). Corsair has seen consistent growth in revenue over the past couple of years and quarters.

    Net Revenue was around 465 million, up around 241 million from last year(~192%).

    Net Income was at 103 million up from -8 million.

    Pros:

    - The price to book ratio is very low compared to the sector's(About 5 compared to 18).

    - The intrinsic value (at least according to my calculation) is higher than the current price even with a margin of safety of 10%.

    - Corsair is a very well respected brand in computers.

    - In the next few years, there will be big changes in the CPU market, and DDR5 RAM may come out, leading many to be looking for an upgrade.

    - The GPU shortage may end soon and people will be looking for PSUs to feed the GPUs and maybe fans and cases to better cool their PCs. Also, with the releases of the 3060 and AMD's equivalent coming soon to hopefully replace the 1060, many will be looking for new computer components. The 1060 currently makes up 9.62% of the GPUs used by Steam(gaming) users. With around 24% of Steam users using 3-4-year-old GPUs, there is no doubt that many will be looking for an upgrade soon. KEEP IN MIND, Corsair does not sell GPUs, but they sell items that are often purchased with GPUs.

    - Very high short float ~25% (Short squeeze?).

    - If you believe in Fibonacci retracements, Corsair is in the buy zone based on a 1-Year, 1-Day candle retracement from $22.97 to $51.26, -61.8% retracement puts the value at around $67.8.

    Cons:

    - There is a lot of competition in the industry, a lot of companies make SSD's, PSUs, RAM, etc.

    - Due to the silicone shortage, upgrading a PC is harder so it may lower the odds that people need new RAM, power supplies(power-hungry GPUs and CPUs), or cooling. This may be a good thing because once the shortage ends(hopefully), there should be a huge increase in the number of people purchasing products for their PCs.

    - I'm probably biased towards Corsair.

    - Current bearish momentum.

    TL;DR: I'm bullish on Corsair in the long term, I believe that it is very undervalued right now. With changes coming to the computing industry, I see very big potential in the growth of Corsair.

    Again, I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. This is the first DD I've posted, I probably messed something up.

    submitted by /u/RubiksPoint
    [link] [comments]

    What’s the point of DD if the market is always unpredictable?

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 06:31 AM PST

    I'm pretty new to trading, a buddy at work got me into it when he told me to download RH, but lately whenever I tried to do research to find out what would be good investments I've been losing more and more money. Zynga, for example, had a 90% buy and 10% hold recommendation in the app, they started development on a new Star Wars game, they have been doing recent acquisitions to expand, so I bought my calls thinking all signs pointed to a smart investment, and now I've lost about 35% in a week. I don't understand the market. Literally NOTHING about it makes sense. I only make actual money riding reddit waves like GME or doge. What's the point of anything else?

    submitted by /u/wookiebish
    [link] [comments]

    Here is a Market Recap for today Thursday, March 4, 2021.

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 01:25 PM PST

    PsychoMarket Recap - Thursday, March 4, 2021

    Stocks slumped Thursday once again, continuing the recent sellof. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) led the selloff, falling 1.64%. The S&P 500 (SPY) fell 1.24% and the Dow Jones (DIA) fell 1.07%. At session lows, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 erased 2021's gains.

    The moves lower came even after a new report on weekly unemployment claims came in better than expected, pointing to improving employment trends.

    • Initial jobless claims: 745,000 vs. 750,000 expected and a revised 736,000 during the prior week.
    • Continuing claims: 4.295 million vs. 4.300 million expected and 4.419 million during the prior week

    During a public appearance Thursday afternoon, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that the central bank will be "patient" in keeping interest rates near zero, even if inflationary pressures start to rise. Powell cautioned that as the COVID-19 vaccine rollout continues, the Fed could see signs of rising prices amid surging consumer spending. But the Fed chairman noted that he does not expect higher inflation to turn into anything resembling the double-digit inflation of the 1970s. He said, "If we do see what we believe is likely a transitory increase in inflation, where longer-term inflation expectations are broadly stable at levels consistent with our framework and goals, I expect that we will be patient."

    As Treasury yields continue to rise, market participants are increasingly rotating out of high-growth names that led the markets in 2020. Technology stocks came under exceptional selling pressure as traders turned their focus to stocks poised to benefit more directly from an impending economic reopening. At the same time, the recent, rapid rise in Treasury yields has also deterred investors from growth stocks, with interest rates closely tied to borrowing costs for companies and consumers. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 1.544% at the time of writing.

    In other news, lawmakers in the Senate are set to begin debating President Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus, which was passed by the House of Representatives recently. Democrats are racing to push the legislation forward before the mid-March expiry of augmented Federal unemployment benefits. Republicans do not support the bill because of its size, but through a process called reconciliation, Democrats will be able to pass the bill without support from the other side of the aisle.

    Highlights

    • The decisions by Britain and the United States to suspend retaliatory tariffs will create space for negotiations on an ongoing dispute between Boeing (BA) and Airbus, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday.
    • President Biden said his administration expects to have enough COVID-19 vaccines for any adult that wants it by the end of May, pulling the targets two months closer than the previous government estimate.
    • U.S. mortgage rates extended their recent leg higher to break above 3% for the first time since July 2020, raising concerns that the housing market's breakneck growth last year may sharply lose momentum.
    • Square (SQ) announced it took a majority stake in music platform Tidal that is owned by rapper Jay-Z. Jay-Z will be added to the board of directors at Square.
    • Please note that the stock price was written in the morning and does not account for intraday changes.
    • Airbnb (ABNB) with a host of target raises just over the $200 mark. Stock around $175. Including by Credit Suisse, Piper Sandler, Canaccord Genuity, & Needham
    • Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) had a price target raise by Morgan Stanley from $46 to $60
    • Big target raise for Alarm.com (ALRM) by Raymond James from $75 to $115 at STRONG-BUY
    • American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) target raise
      • Citigroup from $29 to $32
      • UBS Group from $31 to $37
      • Jeffries Financial $30 to $32
    • Broadcom (AVGO) had a price target raise by Oppenheimer from $500 to $575 at OUTPERFORM
    • Carvana (CVNA) received a price target raise by JMP Securities from $250 to $290 at MARKET OUTPERFORM
    • Etsy (ETSY) with host of target raises
      • Goldman Sachs $178 to $286 BUY
      • Canaccord Genuity $215 to $270 BUY
      • Morgan Stanley $93 to $123 UNDERWEIGHT
      • Roth Capital $235 to $245 BUY
      • Needham $155 to $235 BUY
    • Fisker (FSR) with a Target raise by Morgan Stanley from $27 to $40 at OVERWEIGHT
    • Futu Holdings (FUTU) Citigroup raise target from $120 to $245 at BUY. This is a big one!
    • Guardant Health (GH) had a price target raise by Morgfan Stanley $MS from $130 to $175
    • HP (HPQ) with a price target raise by Morgan Stanley from $30 to $38 at OVERWEIGHT
    • Liveperson (LPSN) with a host of target raises. We like it at current elvels with this week's selloff.
      • Mizuho $75 to $90 BUY
      • Needham $65 to $71
      • Rosenblatt $73 to $75 BUY
    • PetIQ (PETQ) price target raised by Raymond James $35 to $45 OUTPERFORM
    • Renewables Energy Group (REGI) target raised by H.C. Wainwright from $70 to $115 at BUY. This is timely, especially with the selloff. We like it.
    • Twitter (TWTR) with a host of target raises by Goldman Sachs, Pivotal Research, Canaccord Genuity, KeyCorp, Rosenblatt. Most at BUY or OVERWEIGHT with end price target between $90 and $100
    • Shake Shack (SHAK) with host of target raises
      • Deutsche Bank $70 to $107 HOLD
      • Piper Sandler $122 to $135 OVERWEIGHT
      • Morgan Stnaley $87 to $95 EQUAL WEIGHT

    "The first rule of investment is 'buy low and sell high', but many people fear to buy low because of the fear of the stock dropping even lower. Then you may ask: 'When is the time to buy low?' The answer is: When there is maximum pessimism." - Sir John Templeton

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
    [link] [comments]

    How Do You Handle Market Selloffs (like this one)

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 11:21 AM PST

    If you are not a day trader, but an investor, you should use these down markets to add to your positions. Will it go lower? Maybe, maybe not. No one knows. BUT you DO know that it is cheaper than it has been. Any purchases now will lower your cost basis so that when you look at your holdings a year from now, your profit will be bigger.

    Can you wait to buy until it bottoms? No. There is no way humanly possible to pick the bottom unless you simply get lucky. What about waiting until it bottoms and then buy on the way up. You will ultimately buy higher than today. You have to ask yourself what will tell you a bottom has been put in and its on the way back? It will have to really move a long way off the bottom before your human nature will prompt you to act.

    Since the Dow was 1005 the day I started in the brokerage business (I retired in 2016, so I am no longer an advisor), I have seen tons of these sell offs. Is there anything I can watch to predict these? No. Today they seem to key off the 10 Year Treasury rate. Other times it has been M1 Money growth, or inflation, or deficits, or total debt balances, or PE ratios, or gas prices. It changes.

    If you own ETFs or mutual funds, they ain't goin' to nuthin! Ain't happening. It is virtually impossible for them to go to zero. All they will do is go down before they go up again later.

    The economy is in great shape and getting better. You and most everyone else is getting a stimulus check in about two weeks. Most people will put it in the market, I think. I know I will. That is a ton of new money.

    Covid is getting under control. We are all going to go back to the office. Normality is in the cards.

    Now is the time to add to your holdings. If you panic and sell now you will regret it.

    submitted by /u/DowGoldRatio
    [link] [comments]

    No comments:

    Post a Comment