Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Nov 06, 2020 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Nov 06, 2020
- Tesla launches own tequila with crazy-looking bottle and high price tag
- Alibaba cloud growth outpaces Amazon and Microsoft as Chinese tech giant pushes for profitability
- Are stocks worth getting into for an average person like me?
- Having 100% in equities is superior to keeping an emergency fund, even in really bad case scenarios (market crash + losing your job)?
- SPCE Virgin Galactic is set to fly the first human to space in 2 weeks. This will lead to commercial flights this winter! (Q1 2021)
- What is happening with Palantir?
- Apple iPhone Shoppers Choosing Pricier Models, Survey Shows
- JKS - goin long, boys
- Xpeng chasing NIO
- New Tesla ($TSLA) bull: Any quirks I should be aware of?
- Revolve(RVLV) stock
- MAXR Earnings that bad?
- Buy AMD stock?
- U (Unity Software Inc)
- Xpeng vs Nio
- Settle down people volatility is just starting.
- Cannabis Stocks
- Trying to get a handle on valuations and target prices
- Thinking of selling NET today
- The Economy Under a Biden Administration- What would it look like?
- Investing Mistakes - Confirmation & Recency Biases
- Should I hold my stocks or take my profit due to the election?
- What is your favorite small cap or mid cap stock?
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Nov 06, 2020 Posted: 06 Nov 2020 12:06 AM PST This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on fundamentals, but if fundamentals aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against fundamentals here and not in the current post. Some helpful day to day links, including news:
Most fundamentals are updated every 3 months due to the fact that corporations release earnings reports every quarter, so traders are always speculating at what those earnings will say, and investors may change the size of their holdings based on those reports. Expect a lot of volatility around earnings, but it usually doesn't matter if you're holding long term, but keep in mind the importance of earnings reports because a trend of declining earnings or a decline in some other fundamental will drive the stock down over the long term as well. See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki: If you have a basic question, for example "what is EBITDA," then google "investopedia EBITDA" and click the Investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. Useful links:
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments]  |
| Tesla launches own tequila with crazy-looking bottle and high price tag Posted: 06 Nov 2020 12:27 AM PST "As part of the joke, Musk wrote that he was found "passed out against a Tesla Model 3, surrounded by "Teslaquila" bottles, the tracks of dried tears still visible on his cheeks. Later, the company actually filed a trademark for 'Teslaquila' (though it has been contested), but nothing happened with it until now. Today, Tesla went ahead and launched its own tequila, now just called Tesla Tequila, and started taking orders for $250 on its website:" [link] [comments]  |
| Alibaba cloud growth outpaces Amazon and Microsoft as Chinese tech giant pushes for profitability Posted: 05 Nov 2020 09:50 PM PST https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/06/alibaba-cloud-growth-outpaces-amazon-and-microsoft.html Alibaba reported cloud computing brought in revenue of 14.89 billion yuan ($2.24 billion) in the three months that ended Sept. 30, a 60% year-on-year rise. That was faster than Amazon Web Service's 29% year-on-year revenue rise and Microsoft Azure's 48% growth in the September quarter. Alibaba reiterated that its cloud computing division is likely to become profitable for the first time in its current fiscal year. [link] [comments]  |
| Are stocks worth getting into for an average person like me? Posted: 06 Nov 2020 05:49 AM PST I'm sorry if this question doesn't really belong here. I'm getting into this probably too late, at 30 years old. I don't make very much money, and I only have about 300-500 a month to spare for investing if nothing goes wrong. Based on all the research I've been doing this isn't typically enough to make a substantial long term profit from the stock market. The only thing I did right in life was put money in a 401k but I want to make retirement worth it for all the vacations I never took and all the 12 hour shifts I work. My thoughts are to invest mostly in ETFs since they seem safest, maybe invest a bit in airlines and tech as well. I noticed a lot of movement in Chinese stocks, but based on everything I've read in just the past year, are they really safe to invest in? How long does it usually take to build a good base for a portfolio? Is it too late for me? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Nov 2020 09:03 AM PST Someone on Bogleheads did an analysis backtesting a worst case scenario where an emergency occurred during a severe market crash (2002, 2008), where both investors lost their jobs and had to rely on either their emergency fund or stocks (100% VTI/VTSAX). The person who had to rely on stocks did better than the person who had an EF over a 20 year period. Obviously best case scenario where both investors maintained a full time job, 0% cash / 100% equities beats x% cash / 100-x% equities. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=311324 So it seems that cash really is trash. Even in situations where you need to deploy a lot of funds immediately, you can use credit for that, and then just pay it off after selling stocks or wait until next pay period. Also I'm not saying that you should pursue this strategy, or that you shouldn't keep an emergency fund. Or that every scenario 100% equities beats having an emergency fund. Just thought this was an interesting post I discovered, because you'd expect having an EF is a hedge against worst case scenarios of job loss + market crash. But it looks like this might not be the case. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Nov 2020 10:39 AM PST The company is in its final testing program to get the full FAA certification. This will allow the company to fly paying passengers with the first one being sir Richard Branson. Justin Bieber, Ashton Kutcher, Angelina Jolie, and Tom Hanks and more have already booked with them! Edit: first human to space from New Mexico. [link] [comments]  |
| What is happening with Palantir? Posted: 06 Nov 2020 07:50 AM PST Palantir is up 20% today and, while i do own the stock and don't mind this, what is happening? I can't find any substantial news that would trigger this outside of supporting UK in covid tracing but that's from 2 days ago. [link] [comments]  |
| Apple iPhone Shoppers Choosing Pricier Models, Survey Shows Posted: 06 Nov 2020 07:12 AM PST https://www.investors.com/news/technology/apple-stock-rises-survey-shows-demand-pricier-iphones/ "Demand for new models has increased relative to last year, which is providing a solid ASP (average selling price) benefit," Evercore analyst Amit Daryanani said in a note to clients. He reiterated his outperform rating on Apple stock with a price target of 135. Some 78% of respondents are interested in buying one of the new iPhone models, vs. 68% last year. In addition, demand for the premium Pro and Pro Max models remains strong at 45%, a modest increase from 41% last year, Evercore said. The survey results indicate the average selling price for iPhones is $838 this year, compared with $806 in last year's survey, Daryanani said. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Nov 2020 09:53 AM PST So I'm trying to read up on why JKS isn't getting more publicity or traction (I mean, aside from the obvious and recent skyrocket). Yeah it went from pesos to dollars, but it's still the worlds largest manufacturer of solar panels, with 13,000 employees and feeding an industry with P/E ratios hitting 200+. Yet they're trading at a 13 P/E, a $65 price tag for an estimated FMV of ~$330ish (last I checked). What am I missing? If they had the P/E of some of the big ETF's like TAN this would be a $1200 stock. Is it really just because it's a Chinese based company (international, really) that people are gun shy? Personally expecting this stock to continue skyrocketing, though with the recent price adjustment (down 40ish percent), it seems an amazing time to buy. For those who are familiar (check their wikipedia page, damn, a leader in R&D too) what are your thoughts on this one? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Nov 2020 06:43 AM PST Sure the answer is no, but can anyone explain Xpeng chasing NIO for $40? Financials and outlook seems vastly superior for NIO. Target price for Xpeng is at $27, which is perhaps more reasonable. Is this a FOMO bubble with people chasing Xpeng who missed NIO? Just sold at 100% gain from my buy in after getting spooked. [link] [comments]  |
| New Tesla ($TSLA) bull: Any quirks I should be aware of? Posted: 06 Nov 2020 01:20 PM PST Just became a Tesla bull today. I have read over the fundamentals (with a very critical eye, I might add) and the technicals in reaching my conclusion. However, I am just wondering if there are any quirks about Tesla that I should know about, such as non-earnings reports days to note, seasonality, or odd occurrences or price movements that tend to happen from time to time. Based on my research I know about the following:
[link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Nov 2020 08:33 AM PST What do you think of Revolve's stock? It has an almost flawless balance sheet and is doing good in terms of revenue growth yoy. It is also in a growing sector and can't be touched by Amazon as of right now. Its earnings also come out on 11/11/2020 which is this Wednesday meaning that if it beats EPS estimates its stock price could skyrocket upwards of 20%. Should I buy it right now? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Nov 2020 10:34 AM PST After going over the earnings report released last night I'm shocked to see MAXR down 25% today. While not impressive was not absolute crap. Adding to that there have been 2 analyst revisions today one up to 28 from 22 and one down to 31 from 32. I'm considering this a good buying opportunity but am wondering if anyone is seeing something super obvious that I'm missing. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Nov 2020 11:00 AM PST Good Morning Everyone, I decided to come here to get a little bit of insight/advice before clicking the sell button. I'm in my early 30's and slightly behind (I do not have a great job/career, do not own a home, etc.), so I'm looking to achieve some rapid capital appreciation over the next few years. Currently, I have about $63,000 between my brokerage and 2 rollover IRA's. I'm considering selling off my TRBCX positions ($55,000 approx.) and buying an entire position in AMD. Would anybody recommend doing so, or am I crazy to even consider doing this? I would love to hear your opinions! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Nov 2020 12:51 PM PST Does anyone know anything about U? They recently went public mid-September with an IPO at around $68/share, in only a little over a month the stock price has jumped to a price around $118. Just in this past week, the stock has grown around 20%, is U something worth looking into? All I really know about the company is that they have run a subscription service similar to adobe in which people can develop video games at practically every stage. In addition, Unity is popular in the mobile gaming market as well as the indie game market As well as triple a titles. (oops) [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Nov 2020 09:48 AM PST I feel like Xpeng is a better investment than Nio. Xpeng has their own manufacturing vs Nio outsource some of its manufacturing. Xpeng profit margins will get better because it is vertically integrated vs Nio outsource most of its production. Xpeng is still half the market cap that Nio has. Alibaba owns 14% stake in Xpeng. Xpeng delivered about 8500 in Q3 vs 12000 by NIO. [link] [comments]  |
| Settle down people volatility is just starting. Posted: 06 Nov 2020 10:35 AM PST It might looks like the election is going to be over soon but until the words, I Concede, comes out of Trumps mouth, its not going to be over. What the market hates more than anything is uncertainty. So stay cautious out there people, this election mess is not over yet. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Nov 2020 10:01 AM PST I own Aurora and Canopy Growth. Should I hold both until Biden is elected and Q1 earnings are released for both or sell ASAP? Perhaps due to Aurora's amazing profits its brand and assets will get picked up by a bigger player? What does everyone think? [link] [comments]  |
| Trying to get a handle on valuations and target prices Posted: 06 Nov 2020 09:53 AM PST One of the things I've been focusing more on as I become a more experienced investor is understanding valuations and identifying target prices for stocks I want. As I described in my recent thread about sitting on the sidelines this week, I had raised some cash for an impending market drop and developed a shopping list of stocks I wanted. I missed good buying opportunities because the market rebounded so sharply and none of my stocks came anywhere near their targets. But clearly I don't have a good handle on valuing growth stocks and identifying targets. Since I don't have the time or expertise to get really fancy with fundamentals, I rely on P/S and P/E ratios to get a sense of valuations. I look at those ratios relative to company peers, and relative to the typical range for that particular stock. For example, if a stock was trading at a P/S range of 8-15 for the past two years, and is now trading at a P/S of 35, I consider that overpriced. I develop target prices by picking a P/S or P/E range, based partly on the stock's history and expected future growth. So in the example above, with a P/S range of 8-15, I might develop a target price based on a forward P/S range of 15-20. Here's the problem, though. When it comes to high growth stocks, my price targets are far too low because the valuations of these stocks have gotten so out of whack. TTD is a great example. I set a target price of around $400 based on future growth and started to get excited as it dropped to around $550, but then it shot back up and is now way out of my price range. TTD is now trading at a P/E of 325 and forward P/E of almost 200, and a P/S of 45. I hear people say that you can't pay such close attention to these ratios with growth stocks because they can grow so quickly, and at some point in their histories everyone thought stocks like AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, etc, were overpriced. But their ratios never got too out of whack like today's growth stocks are. The P/E sometimes does because earnings can be volatile, but I've found the P/S ratio to be pretty reliable. Let's look at some examples of high priced stocks: AMZN: historical P/S range of 1.1-4.5 (now a touch higher) AAPL: historical P/S range of 1.7-5.6 (now a touch higher) GOOG: 5.2-7.5 (currently within that range) ISRG: 5-21 (currently within that range) BKNG: 1.7-8.9 (currently within that range) BABA: 6.7-16 (currently within that range) MELI: 5-15 (now at 23) But now look at some of the popular high growth stocks: TTD: 5-20 (now at 45!) DOCU: 6-36 NET: 12-19 (now at 51!) NIO: 1.8-7.5 (now at 34!) CRWD: now at 44 What do you notice? The current P/S ratios of those growth stocks is way, way higher than most of the other big stocks ever were in their histories. The most "overpriced" any of those stocks ever got in their histories was ISRG at a P/S of 21, and yet all of the current growth stocks are at P/S ratios twice that. The ratios for stocks like CRWD and NET are 10-11x higher than AMZN's highest P/S ratio in its history. Are these stocks overpriced and will eventually come down to more reasonable valuation levels? Or are we seeing a fundamental change in the way growth stocks are valued? Is this year's P/S ratio of 40 equivalent to a P/S ratio of 10 from five years ago? How do we make sense of this? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Nov 2020 10:51 AM PST Hi all, Like many people on this sub I've had a hard on for NET for the past few months. The stock has seen almost a 20% increase today, mostly due to a solid earnings report yesterday. I'm torn because I don't think NET is worth it's current price. $114 million in revenue doesn't justify a $20 billion market cap. The company is still not yet profitable. Anyone have a good argument or reasons not to sell? [link] [comments]  |
| The Economy Under a Biden Administration- What would it look like? Posted: 06 Nov 2020 01:36 PM PST It's looking increasingly like Joe Biden will be the winner of this election. Once he becomes president, it's likely he'll set his sights on reversing some of his predecessor's executive orders, many of which have had major effects on the US and world economy, particularly as it relates to ease of immigration and trade. Even with a Republican-controlled Senate, there's still plenty a Biden administration could do with discretionary funds to support other policy goals, such as advancing renewable energy. Knowing this, what do you think would be the best sectors/industries to invest in for the next 4 years? Are there any patterns you expect to see? What leads you to predict them? How do you think the US economy might grow/stagnate? Playing safe on Rule 1, I'll disclose that I have shares in green energy companies and ETF's. I think those industries could see a much better performance under a Biden EPA and Energy Department. While I don't see Biden repealing all of Trump's tariffs, particularly on China, I think US and world companies would also benefit from a resurgence in trade after the lowering of barriers. Logistics and shipping might be good industries for this reason. What do you think? [link] [comments]  |
| Investing Mistakes - Confirmation & Recency Biases Posted: 05 Nov 2020 06:53 PM PST Introduction:This is going to be a short post regarding two common investing mistakes, specifically Confirmation bias and Recency bias. Anyone is prone to falling victim to these, but by being more aware of them there is much less tendency to unknowingly let them guide our decisions. Confirmation Bias:Simply put this is just ignoring relevant information that goes against our views, and seeking out info that just confirms what we want to believe. We've all seen the posts stating "This is going to happen to stock XYZ", they ignore any facts in the comments refuting their position, and yet, when the stock moves in the opposite direction there is surprise? The best counter is to seek out information that challenges your conclusion, review the company's financials/profiles, read opinions that are opposed to your own, and be honest about your motivations. Are you just trying to make a quick trade? Or an investment? Recency Bais:This is when emphasis is put onto recent events and giving less weight to those that have happened in the past. Recency bias makes us think more in the short term. For example, perhaps we come to the conclusion that the market will keep going up? Or down? Or say an investor buys a stock and it drops over 20% in a month, they might be more likely to view all the related investments as bad due to the recent experience. Perhaps a closer look at the balance sheet would have revealed it was the bad one from the bunch. The point here isn't to completely ignore recent data and trends. This is often what swing trading can be influenced by! The point is to ensure that your decision making isn't too heavily influenced by it, trends can often change dramatically. For several months tech stocks are on fire, and then the next few they underperform the rest of the market. The tendency to think that the most recent strong performers are going to be tomorrow's strong performers, will often leave you disappointed. Whenever you hear "momentum" and "trend" always be cautious, do your research. Additionally think less in the short term, craft a long-term investment horizon with your specific investment goals in mind. Final Thoughts:Everyone is unique in the way they think and go about their investment strategies, some may be more prone to some biases than others may be. It is important to remember that no one person is an expert, seek out opinions, and if you need more discipline then make yourself a rules-based checklist for investments. Prevent the FOMO. There are a lot more biases that influence our thinking, reading up on them to be more aware how they can influence your decision making will make you a better investor in the future. As always thankyou for reading, hopefully this short post got some brain juices going. If anyone has some strategies they use or another common bias they see people falling victim to then please comment. Have a good night everyone. EDIT: Keep an open mind, acknowledge your shortcomings, be open to CONSTRUCTIVE criticism, listen, and don't sell out of the market before an election because someone "predicted" it was going to drop. No one has a crystal ball. [link] [comments]  |
| Should I hold my stocks or take my profit due to the election? Posted: 06 Nov 2020 07:32 AM PST Hello, I'm a 19yr student from Ireland. I have shares in the following mainly tech stocks. My portfolio is up 12% since 3/11. Will the market dip and go back to what it was pre election or will it stay around about what it is atm? I know you can't predict the future, I'm looking for opinions of people who know what they're talking about, unlike me :). [link] [comments]  |
| What is your favorite small cap or mid cap stock? Posted: 06 Nov 2020 08:37 AM PST Topic. I've read some studies that historically, small cap stocks collectively have beaten the S&P 500 the majority of the time. So what is your favorite small or medium cap stock and more importantly why? Also it doesn't necessarily have to be under 10 billion. So there's room for 10-20 billion cap stocks as well. [link] [comments]  |
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