Stock Market - Bloomberg: The US stock market could be headed for a lost decade

Bloomberg: The US stock market could be headed for a lost decade
If Biden wins, how will Green Stocks react?
Where can I find the listing dates of NYSE stocks?
Robinhood to Excel (xls) exporter
What Is Value Investing In Stocks? How Value Stocks Can Make You Rich
I made a portfolio. Can I buy and sell the whole thing, not stock by stock?
Plans for election week
Portfolio with Monthly Dividends

Bloomberg: The US stock market could be headed for a lost decade

Posted: 01 Nov 2020 08:51 AM PST

"When the history of the modern financial era is written, there's one comment that's almost certain to merit inclusion: "Stocks only go up!"

Sports-blogger turned day-trader Dave Portnoy's pithy observation this summer was designed to both amuse and provoke. But if you've put money into U.S. stocks since the market bottomed out in 2009, the chances are you think Portnoy is basically correct. Plenty of professional asset managers would concur.

Perhaps the most important question for those considering investing savings today, when stocks are by some metrics among the most expensive they've ever been, is whether Portnoy's philosophy is about to be turned on its head. In other words: "what if stocks don't always go up?"

There are reasons to think this fantastic period for the U.S. stock market might soon be followed by a prolonged hangover, possibly lasting a decade or more. Such a stretch of disappointing equity returns would have profound implications for millennials and generation Z. The standard advice around financial planning and retirement saving that's worked so well lately — put your money in an index fund that tracks the market and forget about it — might no longer work so well.

In the past decade, investors who bought an index fund that mirrors the S&P 500 Index and reinvested dividends have enjoyed a 13% average annual return, according to Bloomberg data.

Even a deadly global pandemic that's triggered a deep recession and widespread unemployment only briefly interrupted the ascendancy of U.S. stocks. The Federal Reserve rode to the rescue once more, and the S&P 500 hit fresh record highs (though lately investors have since grown cautious again). Young investors may conclude that bumper returns are all but guaranteed in the years ahead. If only steadily rising stock prices were always the case. Consider the FTSE 100, an index of some of Britain's preeminent pharmaceutical, energy, mining and consumer goods companies. In price terms (ignoring the impact of reinvesting dividends for a second), the U.K. benchmark is lower now than it was two decades ago. It's not alone.

The Stoxx Europe 600 benchmark also remains beneath its dot-com-era peak while the MSCI emerging markets index topped out in 2007 and has yet to recover. The market that really refutes Portnoy's assertion though is Japan: The Nikkei 225 index remains about 40% below its 1989 peak, when a massive financial bubble burst.

"Stocks Only Go Up"?

Following a financial bubble Japanese investors suffered years of poor returns

Could the U.S. market face a similar fate? There've been bleak periods before, most famously in the two decades that followed the 1929 Wall Street crash.

Long Hangover

U.S. stocks took a long time to recover from the 1929 Wall Street crash

As recently as 2012 the S&P 500 was below its 2000 peak. Value-orientated asset managers like GMO's Jeremy Grantham think something similar could happen again, but it's not just well-known Cassandras who worry. Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates and Blackstone's vice chairman Tony James have both warned about a "lost decade" for equity investors.

If you'd followed GMO's advice in 2013 to steer clear of American large-cap stocks and load up on emerging market shares, you'd have missed out on seven years of stellar returns. So what's different now? 1. Extreme valuations Equity valuations have grown even more extreme. During the pandemic, they have become completely divorced from economic fundamentals thanks to the Federal Reserve's largess. A stock market bubble pulls forward expected returns from the future, setting investors up for probable disappointment later on. "It's exactly when past returns are most glorious that future prospects are most dismal," investor John Hussman, another famously bearish investment manager wrote recently. He's described today's menu of choices for passive, long-term investors as "the worst in history."

Expensive Stocks

U.S stock valuations aren't at dotcom era levels, but they're certainly not cheap

The CAPE ratio uses a ten-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings to smooth out short-term noise

Ultra-low interest rates Low interest rates are often portrayed as bullish for stocks because they boost the value of future corporate cash flows in today's money and reduce the cost of servicing debt. But with U.S. short-term rates now at zero, the Federal Reserve may find it harder to juice the stock market. Ultra-low rates also reflect pessimism about future economic prospects. "When real rates are low, future returns on equities and bonds tend to be lower rather than higher," Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton wrote in Credit Suisse's 2020 compendium of past market returns. "Investors should assume a sober view of the likely excess returns equities can generate from here."
Profit margin reversion A key determinant of equity returns, profit margins have been unusually high over the past couple of decades. But corporate profits have now suffered a massive hit due to the pandemic. Even without the virus, those oversize earnings should eventually dwindle as competitors spy an opportunity. Monopoly power may hinder this, but dominant tech companies are starting to face more competition and stricter antitrust enforcement. Globalization is also in retreat and workers are demanding are a fairer split of the rewards of capitalism.
An aging population This is often considered a key reason for Japan's prolonged stock market slump. Although the U.S. is aging less rapidly, the demographic changes underway are bound to have an impact on future equity returns. An aging population may be less productive, lowering potential economic growth. Furthermore, by 2030 the large and asset-rich U.S. baby boomer generation will all be over the age of 65, and they may need to cut their exposure to risky stocks or sell financial assets to fund their retirement, weighing on prices.

While this all sounds bleak, it's some comfort that over the very long term stocks have tended to go up. In nominal terms, one dollar invested in the U.S. market in 1900 was worth $58,000 by 2019, according to the Credit Suisse market returns study, or an annualized 6.5% return when adjusted for inflation. In the meantime, there are a few things young investors can do to avoid being caught out by a duff decade for U.S. stocks. For starters, if returns are lower I'm afraid you'll also need to save more to build wealth. Consider adding some exposure to non-U.S. equities, which may at last be due a period of outperformance relative to the U.S. And by reinvesting dividends you can still obtain decent returns even if stock prices go nowhere. (The FTSE 100 has fallen 19% since the turn of the millennium, but investors who reinvested dividends received a 63% return in that period.) Hopefully, the gloomy scenario I've painted won't materialize and U.S. companies will develop new technologies that power the economy and the stock market to new heights in the next decade. But if that doesn't happen, you'll be prepared."

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-31/personal-finance-what-if-stocks-don-t-always-go-up-advice-for-young-investors

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If Biden wins, how will Green Stocks react?

Posted: 01 Nov 2020 02:28 PM PST

I have stakes in a few green stocks:

HYLN (renewable natural gas hybrids and electric trucks designer/manufacturer)

SPWR (solar panel installer)

SUNW (solar panel installer)

PLUG (hydrogen fuel cell designer/manufacturer)

Traditional wisdom says that the left will curtail carbon emissions and subsidise green energy.

Is that belief reasonable?

If so, how are the markets going to react if/when the Democrats win the Senate and/or Biden wins the Presidency?

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Where can I find the listing dates of NYSE stocks?

Posted: 01 Nov 2020 05:23 PM PST

For research purposes, I am looking for a list of current NYSE stocks along with their listing dates. I am NOT looking for IPO dates. I am looking for NYSE listing dates (i.e. the date that the stock listed and started trading on the NYSE, not necessarily through an IPO).

Is there such a list? I am curious about the case of Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), and General Electric (GE).

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Robinhood to Excel (xls) exporter

Posted: 01 Nov 2020 07:03 PM PST

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What Is Value Investing In Stocks? How Value Stocks Can Make You Rich

Posted: 01 Nov 2020 08:04 AM PST

https://youtu.be/bCn_pgmKZiA

This video is asking the question What Is Value Investing In Stocks, and answering with how value stocks can make you rich. Most value investors struggle to understand when stocks are selling at a value discount.

Some of the subjects addressed in this video include: Value Stocks, How Stocks Can Make You Rich, What Is Value Investing, Stock Market, Investing In Stocks, how to invest, finance, Warren Buffett, financial, financial education and real estate.

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I made a portfolio. Can I buy and sell the whole thing, not stock by stock?

Posted: 01 Nov 2020 12:59 PM PST

I love the convenience of ETFs, but don't like the fees, and want to cherry pick.

So i picked out about 20 stocks in E-Trade and made it into a portfolio. I bought a few of each. It took a while, selecting each one, choosing buy.

Now I have more cash and want to buy a few more shares of all these stocks again.

Is there any way to buy my portfolio like an etf? Or, buy 20 stocks at once, in preset quantities? Ideally in E-Trade but whatever.

(Not looking for advice on the wisdom or folly of buying and selling multiple stocks at once - I want convenience)

I'm open to either a solution of buying fractional shares, or a solution that requires a minimum order amount to purchase whole shares.

Cheers!

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Plans for election week

Posted: 01 Nov 2020 07:16 AM PST

I'm thinking of buying UVXY as I'm anticipating high volatility on election week. How has previous election weeks been for the market? Would the market be more volatile to Bidens win or Trumps Win?

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Portfolio with Monthly Dividends

Posted: 01 Nov 2020 10:44 AM PST

Hi, In tomorrow`s video I help you create a portfolio with monthly dividends and how to earn free crypto worth $158.

https://youtu.be/W1Vb95kIDlA

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