Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Aug 13, 2020 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Aug 13, 2020
- U.S. weekly jobless claims fell to 963,000 last week vs. 1.1 million estimate [CNBC]
- Apple reportedly plans to launch a new bundled subscription service for music, news and more
- ATTN EVERYONE: A low stock price does NOT make a company "cheap" or mean it is a "value" stock.
- $INTC : Intel announces Tiger Lake chips
- Epic games sues Apple. Will we see AAPL come down in price tomorrow?
- Can someone make the positive Apple stock outlook make sense?
- Quick brain food for what these index’s actually are
- Stock market determines elections
- Draft Kings
- If NVDA buys ARM will the stock explode?
- Europeans please help
- If you had 5k to invest in ONE company, which company would you invest in ..?
- BYND 5-10%+ 1-5 Day Swing
- Wind and solar power hit record global market shares in first half of 2020
- Thoughts on Apple Shares before Split
- Riding it out vs All-weather portfolio vs getting out of the market?
- Can someone teach me or tell me about a software that alerts you of any stock that is rising at an alarming rate? NTN is up 158% and I always find out hours too late.
- Comparing financial models
- Edible insects
- KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE) exceeded expectations for their IPO today. Market Close Price, $37.44
- Tesla or Apple? Which will likely go higher after the split?
- Why does a really good private company with great financials decide to go public?
- $TRVN is it the next big thing?
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Aug 13, 2020 Posted: 13 Aug 2020 01:06 AM PDT This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on stock options, but if options aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against options here and not in the current post. Some helpful day to day links, including news:
Required info to start understanding options:
See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki: If you have a basic question, for example "what is delta," then google "investopedia delta" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments]  |
| U.S. weekly jobless claims fell to 963,000 last week vs. 1.1 million estimate [CNBC] Posted: 13 Aug 2020 05:35 AM PDT
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| Apple reportedly plans to launch a new bundled subscription service for music, news and more Posted: 13 Aug 2020 05:37 AM PDT Apple is preparing to launch new subscription plans that bundle several of its services together, Bloomberg reported on Thursday. According to the report, Apple plans to package services like Apple TV+, Apple Music, Apple News+, Apple Arcade and iCloud storage into different plans that provide consumers a discount for packaging everything together. Some of Apple's services have reportedly been off to a slow start, however, like Apple News+. If it's packaged with a more popular service, say Apple Music, people may be more willing to use it. [link] [comments]  |
| ATTN EVERYONE: A low stock price does NOT make a company "cheap" or mean it is a "value" stock. Posted: 13 Aug 2020 08:17 AM PDT Please do some research before your jump into these (always) uncertain waters. When I started investing in 2015, I made decisions based on what I could afford - "I can buy more shares of this stock though because it's cheaper," I told myself. A work mentor of mine, who is twice my age, told me that's not how I should look at the stock market. He would always say, "If you have $500 bucks invest $500 bucks. Don't make your decision on how many shares you can get. Your return is based off how much money you put in, not how many shares you have." It took awhile for me to understand this. Myles Udland (Yahoo Finance) wrote an article this morning speaking to this point. It seems that lower share price stocks have outpaced higher share price stocks since the highs last Thursday. Not a long sample by any means, but this seems to be a reversal trend which seems to be accelerating. IMO, I can't help but think it's a <broker that shall not be named> type of push. From the story, "And as the firm's table shows below, cheap stocks, shorted stocks, stocks hated by analysts, and stocks that had lagged during this [COVID] recovery all outperformed Friday through Tuesday." If you are interested in what truly does make a stock cheap or an attractive price, please read, "The Four Basic Elements of Stock Value," on Investopedia. THEN, do more research on what these four elements mean so you can begin to comprehend what you see while researching a potential position. [link] [comments]  |
| $INTC : Intel announces Tiger Lake chips Posted: 13 Aug 2020 09:28 AM PDT Intel offers a first look at its next-gen Tiger Lake processors and Xe graphics Is Intel stock a good buy at this point ($48.80) ? [link] [comments]  |
| Epic games sues Apple. Will we see AAPL come down in price tomorrow? Posted: 13 Aug 2020 01:39 PM PDT 'Fortnite' maker Epic Games sues Apple over App Store policiesThe lawsuit comes after Apple removed 'Fortnite' from its App Store. Fortnite developer Epic Games is suing Apple after the company removed the game from its App Store. In a lawsuit, Epic accuses the iPhone maker of anti-competitive and monopolistic behavior. "Epic brings this suit to end Apple's unfair and anti-competitive actions that Apple undertakes to unlawfully maintain its monopoly in two distinct, multibillion dollar markets," the company writes in a court filing, pointing to Apple's control over the App Store and payments processing for in-app purchases. [link] [comments]  |
| Can someone make the positive Apple stock outlook make sense? Posted: 12 Aug 2020 05:56 PM PDT I am in my twenties and like many "new" investors became very interested in the market as a result of the economic downturn brought on by COVID-19. I saw a lot of my peers on Twitter and FaceBook making decent gains and it really piqued my interest because I have been saving roughly 4k per month in a high interest savings account and not really doing much else with it. I always thought the market to be too risky for my taste but after becoming comfortable with my base savings, I was ready to start my own journey into investing. I am not really the kind of person to go off of word of mouth so I set out to learn as much as I could on my own through reading and online courses. I took a course on the basics of the stock market on Udemy which mainly covered fundamental analysis but touched on the technical side of things as well. In addition to this I took a more in depth course on just technical analysis which covered trend lines, candlestick patterns etc ... I didn't find it too helpful for long term investments but it still seemed interesting. Lastly I read the Intelligent Investor as well as One Up on WallStreet and a book on basic accounting to help me understand how to decipher what I was seeing on these annual reports and what all of the numbers meant when I was attempting to valuate a potential purchase .... as well as various YouTube courses and tutorials All of this has occurred over the course of the past 3 months, so while I have become a little more knowledgeable than most of my friends just blindly throwing money into the market, I still don't feel very confident in my newly developed skills because .... well, they are new and I haven't had enough experience. IF YOU DON'T CARE ABOUT ME AND MY JOURNEY INTO THE STOCK MARKET, SKIP TO HERE: With that being said, I have been seeing a lot of talk about this 4:1 Apple split that is coming up and while I understand that this doesn't change the company fundamentally at all, I really can't seem to see why Apple is trading for what it is ... or more importantly, why so many analysts are rating it as a "buy". I know that Graham specifically warns against needing validation from "professionals" for your decision making but since I am still really a newbie, I wanted to know if there is something I am missing in forming my opinion that the stock is severely overvalued. Here is how I arrived at this conclusion: Point 1: In my opinion, Apple is nothing more than a 1 dimensional hardware company. When you look at the annual report for FY 19' the revenue stemmed from the following:
Out of all of these things, the only one that is not hardware is services which means that 82.2% of the sales come from hardware alone ... mainly iPhone. Furthermore, if you look at what exactly makes up this "services" category you will see that it is Apple Music, Apple Care, iCloud, App Store Subscriptions, and also baked in there is the free version of iCloud, Maps, and Siri. Now, while I respect apple for growing this particular vertical (services) of its company which has experienced some good growth over the last few years 2017: $32,700M in sales 2018: $39,748M in sales (increase of 21.55%) 2019: $46,291M in sales (increase of 16.46%) I can't help but also realize how closely coupled the services vertical is to the hardware vertical. Mostly all of the services Apple provides depend on the successful sale of its hardware. I can speak personally that I cancelled Apple Music in 2017 for Spotify because I switched jobs (software engineer) to a position that required me to work in a secure environment where I couldn't bring in my phone and since Apple Music had no web app, I couldn't listen to music and code while at work. This makes me weary of their services business as a whole because if for some reason the hardware becomes less popular then the services will suffer severely it seems ... you don't really need Apple Music without an iPhone .... and you aren't really paying for app store subscriptions if you don't have an iPhone or Mac ... and you also don't need Apple Care without an Apple Device, see where I am heading? iPhone sales are plateauing which can be seen by the data leading up to 2018 as well as the official announcement from Apple that they would stop providing exact numbers on the numbers of units sold at the end of 2018. Data: https://www.statista.com/statistics/276306/global-apple-iphone-sales-since-fiscal-year-2007/ In addition to iPhone sales slowing up ... PC sales have been declining across the board for a while due to the fact that handhelds have become increasingly more powerful, this has also resulted in the plateauing of Mac sales as well. Data: https://www.statista.com/statistics/276308/global-apple-mac-sales-since-fiscal-year-2002/ I say all of this to point out that for a company that is getting 82% of its sales from hardware, the hardware growth seems to be slowing down tremendously and the services market that it seems to be shifting into seems largely dependent on the hardware, which seems concerning to say the least. Point 2: Apple does not appear to either be a growth stock or a value stock in the current climate. Don't get me wrong, I think Apple is pretty good company as a whole and they appear to clearly be financially stable even despite the declining hardware sales ... but at this price they are far from a "value" stock and from a financial perspective, they don't seem to be a "growth" stock either. When you look at net income for the past 5 years you will notice that it hasn't really changed too much, when comparing the most recent annual report with the one from 5 years ago the net income has only increased by 3.5% which doesn't even take into account inflation which in actuality would make it seem like the net income for FY 19' was actually less than what was earned in FY 15' 2015: $53.39B 2016: $45.69B 2017: $48.35B 2018: $59.53B 2019: $55.26B Furthermore, what seems funky to me is that the EPS actually seems to be increasing over time ... but it is not due to the net income rising, it is due to the fact that Apple has been buying back stock each year thus decreasing the total number of shares outstanding from 5.75B in 2015 to 4.62B in 2019, a decrease of 19.65% over the past 5 years ... this makes the EPS seem higher and the P/E seem lower, making the stock seem more valuable than it actually is. SHARES OUTSTANDING: 2015: 5.75B 2016: 5.47B (-4.87%) 2017: 5.22B (-4.57%) 2018: 4.96B (-4.98%) 2019: 4.62B (-6.85%) 2015 - 2019 Change: - 19.65% EPS (as is in annual report): 2015: $9.28 2016: $8.35 (-10.02%) 2017: $9.27 (+11.02%) 2018: $12.01 (+29.56%) 2019: $11.97 (-0.37%) 2015 - 2019 Change: +28.99% EPS (based on consistent shares outstanding of 5.75B across all years) 2015: $9.28 2016: $7.94 (-14.44%) 2017: $8.40 (+5.79%) 2018: $10.35 (+23.21%) 2019: $9.61 (-7.15%) 2015 - 2019 Change: +3.56% Then if we use each 2019 EPS to calculate the P/E based on todays closing price of $452.04 P/E TTM as is: $37.76 P/E TTM adjusted based on consistent shares outstanding: $47.04 Not really sure if I am even allowed to make an adjusted calculation based on what if they never brought back the shares but nonetheless here it is .... Point 3: This is purely speculation which is against the rules, I know .... but I can't help but think consumer psychology has to play a role in the market. The truth of the matter is that consumers don't really know what they want until it is presented to them, iPhone has dominated the market for what seems like forever but in actuality, it has really only been about a decade. iPhone 4 was the real game changer since it allowed people to get their hands on an iPhone for other carriers. There seems to be a general consensus among many consumers now though that all Apple does is slap a new camera on each new model, repackage it, and put it on the shelf .... being in tech myself, I understand that the technical upgrades such as chipsets and other components that don't bring forth clear, tangible improvements do play a vital role in allowing the device to move forward and become more capable but I don't think the average consumer understands that. Apple vs Android is a tired and pretty much done battle, they have been battling for the market for a while and many consumers have chosen their side and will likely stick with it at this point when comparing the 2 ... however, I have a feeling that if a new product were to emerge onto the market that were neither android or apple but introduced something reliable, new, and fresh then consumers would be more than ready for a change. Apple's double edged sword is that it is a complete ecosystem, all of the devices rely on some type of proprietary operating system which when paired together create a pretty good user experience between the devices. However, make no mistake, iPhone sits at the top of that ecosystem and for many consumers, iPhone is the segway into the Apple ecosystem. You get an iPhone and you like it .... so now when you get a computer you want a Mac etc. I say this to point out how financially dependent Apple is on the iPhone, if ever it should fail ... then the performance of the company will suffer miserably. How long can iPhone continue to dominate? Touch screen phones of this type have been running the scene for the past decade, I honestly think a major change is on the horizon for smart phones, but I don't necessarily believe Apple will be the company to usher it in .... and because of that belief I just don't think it would be a good idea to overpay for a stock now with the stupid belief that the what goes up must continue to go up. Conclusion: From everything I see it seems like Apple is severely overvalued right now, the company has shown a long history of growth and one would like to think that would continue but based on the financials it doesn't seem like the growth factor is really there right now. I don't think the company is doomed or is a bad pick, I just don't think it's a good pick at its current price. However, with that being said ... I don't have nearly as much experience as many of you I'm sure and definitely not those analysts. on Wall Street, so I was trying to figure out why people are so excited as the price sits now and why the buy rating seems to be so high. Disclosure, I have no position. [link] [comments]  |
| Quick brain food for what these index’s actually are Posted: 13 Aug 2020 10:31 AM PDT S&P 500 The S&P 500 or Standard & Poor's 500 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies. NASDAQ The term, "Nasdaq" is also used to refer to the Nasdaq Composite, an index of more than 3,000 stocks listed on the Nasdaq exchange that includes the world's foremost technology and biotech giants such as Apple, Google, Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, and Intel. DJI The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), also known as the Dow 30, is a stock market index that tracks 30 large, publicly-owned blue chip companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ. RUSSEL 2000 The Russell 2000 index is an index measuring the performance of approximately 2,000 smallest-cap American companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which is made up of 3,000 of the largest U.S. stocks. It is a market-cap weighted index. VIX the Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. Derived from the price inputs of the S&P 500 index options, it provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments. There are approximately 5,000 U.S. indexes. These are the most commonly named. [link] [comments]  |
| Stock market determines elections Posted: 13 Aug 2020 07:55 AM PDT 87% of the time, the S&P has determined the outcome of the election. During the month previous to the election, if the S&P ends up green, the president stays. If red, a new president comes in. I found this in an economy book I was reading. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 13 Aug 2020 01:10 PM PDT I'm surprised I haven't seen anyone mention $DKNG today (maybe I missed it). They're up 6% today in anticipation of tomorrow's earnings. I'm bullish long-term and think tomorrow could reveal a glimpse into it's potential. I live in PA where mobile sports betting is legal. The more I play around with the app, the more bullish I become. They have some cool promos such as insurance bets, profit boosts, odds boosts, free bets, and you get $100 credit for each friend you refer. If you're unfamiliar with how sports betting works, the Sportsbook takes a small percentage of each bet (some people call it the juice). Draft Kings typically charges about 9% per bet which is ultimately what prevents most gamblers from winning. Draft Kings has way more to offer than just sports betting. They have a ton of casino games (slots, blackjack, poker, etc.) that should help pull in money. They're spending a ton of money on advertisements right now. It's at the point where it's annoying because it feels like it's on every single commercial or radio station offering some kind of promo. It just became available in Illinois and is legal in CO, PA, NJ, IA, IN, and WV. More and more states are legalizing sports betting and DKNG stock should jump as states continue to soften its legislation on mobile sports betting. I know a bunch of people on here have bought in but may not live in a state that has it so let me know if you have any questions about the app I didn't already mention. [link] [comments]  |
| If NVDA buys ARM will the stock explode? Posted: 13 Aug 2020 11:54 AM PDT ARM has incredible reach and it seems that if NVDA can pull this off, they will have an insane reach that can't be matched by any one company. If this is eventually announced as official, do you expect the stock will explode?! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 13 Aug 2020 09:39 AM PDT Good people of Reddit (mostly for the europeans here) im a newbie and im investing mostly through Revolut and recently a friend of me told me that because im buying the American tickers of companies instead of the European versions I will pay shit tons of taxes if I choose to sell...Can you please explain to me how that works and what is a good investing app you use that has enough tickers and even ETFs to invest in? Thousands of gratidutes! [link] [comments]  |
| If you had 5k to invest in ONE company, which company would you invest in ..? Posted: 13 Aug 2020 01:53 PM PDT I am going to invest 5k in one company and I would like suggestions out of these 4 companies. Tesla, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon. So far I'm leaning towards Apple and to be clear I already own shares of all of these companies so diversification is not what I'm looking to do here! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 13 Aug 2020 11:29 AM PDT Hey y'all, here's another safe swing that needs a lil more love.
Safe PT would be ~132 and could easily blow past 140+ randomly. Hope this helps! [link] [comments]  |
| Wind and solar power hit record global market shares in first half of 2020 Posted: 13 Aug 2020 08:09 AM PDT If anyone is wondering why solar stocks jumped today: https://electrek.co/2020/08/13/egeb-wind-solar-10-percent-global-power-epa-open-letter-siemens/ [link] [comments]  |
| Thoughts on Apple Shares before Split Posted: 13 Aug 2020 10:42 AM PDT I have some shares of Apple that I bought at $300 right around the start of the pandemic. I'm holding them now. I keep going back and forth on whether or not I should sell before the stock splits. I know that it doesn't really matter and that my avg cost basis will probably be around $75 when it splits if the stock is around $120ish. I know it sounds dumb cause of the math and the values aren't really changing, just the share price but I keep going over it in my head of what to do lol? Anyone in the same boat? [link] [comments]  |
| Riding it out vs All-weather portfolio vs getting out of the market? Posted: 13 Aug 2020 12:03 PM PDT It seems like there is a lot of uncertainty about the market as we have the pandemics, the upcoming elections, the ongoing tensions between the US and China, the devaluation of USD, the continuous QE and etc.. A number of people seem to think that there will be another downturn in the stock market. Of course, we have no crystal ball and nobody can tell for sure what's going to happen. Are you doing anything to prefer for the near-term uncertainty? (at least until the election/pandemics is over?). What would you do between the followings:
Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 13 Aug 2020 11:47 AM PDT If there is some software that watches all stocks and if any stock starts to rise and continue to rise can you be alerted? Is there a software that can track this type of information? Or do I have to stare at my screen all day refreshing my screen looking over hundreds of stocks? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 13 Aug 2020 01:35 PM PDT Heyo, As I learn more about fundamental analysis, I was wondering if there was a place or reddit page for me to compare my financial models (Usually DCF) against that of others or professionals. I'm perfectly fine with modelling any company, I just wanna make sure I have the right ideas down in terms of adjusting, projecting, and estimating an accurate terminal value. Stay safe :) [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 12 Aug 2020 01:54 PM PDT I was wondering if anyone knows about stocks I can buy that are mostly about edible insects. I can't seem to find anything but maybe someone knows a company out there that has public shares! [link] [comments]  |
| KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE) exceeded expectations for their IPO today. Market Close Price, $37.44 Posted: 13 Aug 2020 01:28 PM PDT BEKE had initially been estimated at $20, but launched at $35. This was a massive swing that caused a sell-off early while many investors (including myself) missed their limit orders due to the higher than expected debut. At market close, the price rose back up to $37.44. Edit: Initially removed the launch post to see how things were going to play out through the day. This IPO did not 'swing' in our favor as the majority of its movement came before the debut. However, this stock had been highly anticipated. I bought in for a few at $34 during the initial dip. [link] [comments]  |
| Tesla or Apple? Which will likely go higher after the split? Posted: 12 Aug 2020 08:44 PM PDT Before you say "FuNdAmEnTAly nOtHinG hAS cHaNgEd with the company." You are absolutely correct, but the fact of the matter is nothing about today's market follows traditional logic. People are still buying hertz for gods sake. Despite what your logic is telling you, who would you pick to have a larger potential for growth after their respective split? Apple or Tesla? If you're looking to purchase for the first time or add to your position, are you buying before or after the split? Me personally, I'm adding more shares of both before the split. More heavily in Apple because I don't want to average up too much on my Tesla shares. I think the optics of a "discount" will cause many new investors to drive the prices of both companies UP! Just curious to know what others may think. Edit: I know there are a lot of threads on each one of these stocks individually...but I'm curious to know the head to head since they are doing similar things! [link] [comments]  |
| Why does a really good private company with great financials decide to go public? Posted: 13 Aug 2020 10:55 AM PDT Let's say a company with tons of cash and doesn't need any outside help or loans to start projects after projects but still decided to go public. Can't think of a company on the top of my head right now but im pretty sure there's some out there. [link] [comments]  |
| $TRVN is it the next big thing? Posted: 13 Aug 2020 12:38 PM PDT Be gentle still a noob learnimg the ropes of the market. $TRVN ... Got FDA approval on Olinvyk. A opiod analgesic that has less side effects than IV morphine. What do you guys think? Good investment for long term? [link] [comments]  |
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