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    Wednesday, August 5, 2020

    Financial Independence Daily FI discussion thread - August 05, 2020

    Financial Independence Daily FI discussion thread - August 05, 2020


    Daily FI discussion thread - August 05, 2020

    Posted: 05 Aug 2020 01:07 AM PDT

    Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply!

    Have a look at the FAQ for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked.

    Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    It only took me 410 days to go from $500k to $600k in my 401k

    Posted: 04 Aug 2020 05:03 PM PDT

    It was June 21, 2019, the first day of summer, when I first broke the $500k resistance, and I was on track to $600k within a 1-year timeframe before the pandemic hit. Regardless, I checked my balance after close today, and was grinning from ear to ear.

    Oh, I know it will likely dip below that a bunch of times before it firmly settles above this threshold, but I'm patient and diligent with always contributing the maximum to my 401k each year, and my company has a generous 4 1/2% match + a 3% enhanced contribution when they sunsetted the defined benefit plan 10-years ago.

    Now my goal is to see if I can hit $700k in less than 400-days. VEIRX, VIEIX, VSMAX, VINIX, VWUAX are the funds in my 401k.

    I just want to encourage everyone who strives for financial independence to stay the course, be patient, sacrifice wants vs. needs when you can, and contribute as much as possible towards your retirement funds.

    Good luck and happy investing!

    submitted by /u/EevelBob
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    Question on the necessity of a bond tent if accumulated wealth beyond FI/RE number

    Posted: 05 Aug 2020 01:53 PM PDT

    Hey all

    I was thinking about bond tents and how it is a method to combat against sequence of return risk after going into RE of FI/RE.

    Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems the discussions surrounding it is based on the premise where one retires right at their desired FI/RE number ($XXX net worth @ Y% withdrawal rate = covers living expenses).

    My question is what are the merits of a bond tent if one were to continue accumulate wealth beyond their FI/RE number. Basically hitting FI, but choose to continue working. At what point does it not make sense to implement a bond tent when an additional $ZZZ has been accumulated above $XXX?

    I am not looking for a discussion about the legitimacy of using bond tents since this discussion is readily available and hashed out. So for the sake of this discussion let's just assume using a bond tent is legit.

    submitted by /u/i_am_viet
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    A perspective on moving

    Posted: 04 Aug 2020 08:25 PM PDT

    So this topic has probably been done to death but I saw yet another post about moving to Europe for retirement. I thought I would share my experience on moving in general.

    We'll start with some background, I grew up in India and went to engineering school there. After graduation, I moved to the US at the ripe old age of 21. Moving was SO easy. I had ALL my stuff packed in two suitcases. I had a cashiers check to cover my tuition payment for the first semester. My best friend from college was going to the same university as me. Life was grand. After a couple of years of grad school and moving here and there, I finally got a grown up job and settled into a fun university town. I spent the next 15 years there. Met my girlfriend who then became my wife. Bought fast cars and motorcycles. Grew up. Bought a house, traded the fast toys for SUVs cos we had a couple of kids, the whole shebang.

    Then my wife got an amazing opportunity half way across the country and I happened to find a better job over there myself. After much deliberation we decided we were ready to move. We couldn't pass up on the higher pay and career development. Plus it's not like the university town we spent the last 15 years was our "home". Neither of us grew up there. So onwards we went to a much larger but perhaps less lively large city.

    After we moved it came as quite a revelation how much our little university town had been our home. We didn't grow up there but we spent our entire adult lives there. We always complained about not having enough friends, but moving reminds you exactly how many friends you DID have. It was a move within continental US, which I believe is one of the most culturally consistent countries in the world. (We'll argue abt it in the comments) but the move still felt like a world away. Everything was just a little different. It was too hot, things were always a bit too far, the new commute was shit. But hey it wasn't all bad. Lots of new things to do and try. A whole new city to explore. Time to reach out to old friends and make new ones. Maybe invite a work colleague for dinner or join a tennis league. We'll make this place home before we know it. That's when COVID hit and derailed all our plans. We are starting to live with the new normal, but it has certainly set back our social life.

    All I can think when I read those move to EU or Asia in retirement posts is, do you have any idea how much harder this will be in retirement? First, you're probably gonna be a bit older in retirement and much more set in your way. Especially if you have lived only in one country your whole life. Moving cities isn't even comparable to moving countries. When you're in a new place the main ways to meet new people are through work or old friends or family or kids play dates or sport league or something. A lot of these don't necessarily work when you're in a new country and your life situation is very different from everyone around you. You don't work, you don't have any family or old friends here, they don't even play the sports you like here. Even when it does work out and hit it off with some people, it is hard to make a real connection with other adults who you won't see that often. Because let's face it you might be retired but others are still working.

    Creating life in you new environment is a lot different from being in vacation mode and a lot more challenging.

    Okay this ended up being a lot longer than I thought and way more rambling than I wanted. Also, I'm aware of how bitter I sound about my own move, ha ha. I really am not. I am just being realistic about the issues facing my social life here. The point being, having money and time doesn't necessarily give you all the things you need. TL;DR: don't bank on moving as part of your FIRE plan unless you already have a life planned out in your destination

    submitted by /u/iomegabasha
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    Weekly Self-Promotion Thread - August 05, 2020

    Posted: 05 Aug 2020 01:07 AM PDT

    Self-promotion (ie posting about projects/businesses that you operate and can profit from) is typically a practice that is discouraged in /r/financialindependence, and these posts are removed through moderation. This is a thread where those rules do not apply. However, please do not post referral links in this thread.

    Use this thread to talk about your blog, talk about your business, ask for feedback, etc. If the self-promotion starts to leak outside of this thread, we will once again return to a time where 100% of self-promotion posts are banned. Please use this space wisely.

    Link-only posts will be removed. Put some effort into it.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Difficulties with FIRE and 4% rule going forward

    Posted: 05 Aug 2020 03:05 PM PDT

    Asset return at fair value is generally considered to be risk free cash rate + risk premium. Over the short term, this is highly volatile, but long term asset returns had historically been highly predictable.

    The 4% rule had been generated using past index returns as a reference with historical rates of inflation to show a strategy that succeeds 95% of the time over 30 years.

    The current stock market valuations, for example in the United States predicting a 10 year yield of only about 4% risk premium + 0% risk free cash rate.

    Massive QE and COVID related helicopter money is also likely to result in increased inflation, which will either erode into buying power or cause interest rates to go up driving an asset market crash.

    Post COVID and the increasingly globalized economy continues to drive wages down, and make the workplace more competitive. This means someone who fails FIRE and leaves the workforce for too long may become non-viable in the workforce.

    To summarize, given:

    1. The stock market is almost certain to produce under average returns (especially in USA) over the next 7-15 years. For most markets, the annual return average will sit at 6-7% and USA at 4% over this period. This number is pre-tax.

    2. Massive fiat printing accelerated by COVID lockdown will eventually lead to inflation, which would erode buying power and lead to pressure on increasing interest rates, which if actioned, will drive markets down.

    3. With the job market becoming more globalized, hence competitive, the risk of failed FIRE becomes even more severe and one could end up in a terrible financial situation running out of money and simultaneously being unable to find meaningful employment having been out of the job market for too long.

    Is FIRE, especially on the lower net worth range (e.g. low 7 digits) still a viable strategy for a reasonable quality of life? Why or why not?

    submitted by /u/Informal_Tie
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