Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Jul 08, 2020 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Jul 08, 2020
- NIO just hit $15
- As gold increases in price, gold miners will boom. Current gold price $1815/oz.
- RIP my NKLA Puts courtesy of JP Morgan
- 22 year old inheriting $25,000-$30,000 this week, looking for advice on how to invest it!
- The FED may be implementing measures not seen since WW2
- APY on Ally savings just dropped to 1%. What's 1 stock you'd pick right now to park your savings in for a better return on your cash?
- Stocks and Earnings Spreadsheet Tracker
- $TWTR on a tear on rumors of a new subscription platform
- 10 am?
- Anyone else big on O, Realty income Corp
- 2K USD AAPL, MSFT, TSLA
- Defense stocks - what the heck is going on
- TXAC
- Thoughts on NIO stock
- RTX?
- Why is Jumia Bullish today?
- $NVDA is now more valuable than $Intel based on the market cap! Congratulations!
- TSLA S&P 500 inclusion
- NKLA, and Analysts in general..
- Is now a good time to invest in stocks?
- Interesting IPO coming on Friday
- What do you think about FLIR?
- Debating about dropping DPST
- Cost Basis Calculation Logic - Is It Sound?
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Jul 08, 2020 Posted: 08 Jul 2020 01:06 AM PDT These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts. Some helpful links:
If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky.. See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jul 2020 06:37 AM PDT We may or may not be in a bubble, but I can live in it for a bit. This is an incredible run so far. [link] [comments]  |
| As gold increases in price, gold miners will boom. Current gold price $1815/oz. Posted: 08 Jul 2020 08:15 AM PDT For most gold mining companies, any gold they mine over $1200-1300 per oz is all profit. There are some companies with better all in sustaining costs (AISC), around $700. But even companies with lower grades of ore, can be very profitable now. I won't get too into detail, but this is still the time to buy these stocks before they're too expensive. Gold will continue to climb as the federal reserve continues to print trillions every month. NUGT all day, I think the GDX is going to move up rapidly. We all know this market mania purely backed by QE. I don't know how long this game of musical chairs is going to be played with stocks like tsla, Uber, etc. But I'm not the one that's going to sit there and pay massive amounts per share, for companies who have declining earnings. The fundamentals will eventually catch up. The fundamentals are on your side with gold and gold stocks. [link] [comments]  |
| RIP my NKLA Puts courtesy of JP Morgan Posted: 08 Jul 2020 06:34 AM PDT "As long as they hold to their business plan of announcing all of their plans on time, a $45 price target is good for this company with no revenue". [link] [comments]  |
| 22 year old inheriting $25,000-$30,000 this week, looking for advice on how to invest it! Posted: 08 Jul 2020 08:41 AM PDT So, as the title says, I'm a 22-year-old looking for advice about how to handle a roughly $25,000-$30,000 inheritance that I'm receiving. The money is in a Roth IRA at Fidelity. I have no idea what the money is currently invested in, how much is in buying power, and so on. I have a basic idea of how I want to manage the money, but I'm looking for some insight on if I'm in the right ballpark here and if so, how I could better execute my strategy. For starters, I'm probably going to sell everything, unless any of it overlaps with the ideas I'm going to lay out in this post. From there, I want to invest half of the funds in dividend and value stocks, and index funds. I'm thinking at least a quarter of that half, so an eighth of my entire portfolio spread across the three main US indexes, specifically invested in SPY, DOW, and QQQ. I'm interested in investing either the QQQ or SPY portion in a 3x daily bull fund that traces that fund, specifically either TQQQ or SPXL, let me know what you think about that. The next eighth I'm wanting to invest into banks. Companies like JPM and C are underperforming the market so heavily right now, and they've already confirmed that they're not cutting dividends. Yes, share buybacks are suspended pending future earnings requirements but I believe that JPM and C are well positioned enough to resume buybacks at the latest by the end of Q1 2021. I genuinely believe that banks are discounted right now and have potential for a great return if they return to their ATH's. I also like the prospect of their dividend income over time. The next eighth I'm wanting to put into funds specifically for their dividends. I don't really care about the YoY return on these tickers; I'm just interested in the dividend. I'd want to spread it across SPHD, MO, KO, ABBV, SPG, and VYM. Any suggestions for the last eighth of the long-term / low-risk portion of the fund would be appreciated. I'm sure I couldn't go wrong with just going heavy on the dividend funds, but yeah, any suggestions would be cool. Now for the second half of the fund. I'm wanting to approach this half with a more high-risk, high-reward strategy. For the first half of this high-risk high-reward portion (quarter of my total portfolio), I'm just going to invest in growth stocks/ETFs. A couple of tickers I have in mind are ARKK, SOCL, SMH, AMD, FSLY, TSLA, APPL, MSFT, FB, and AMZN. For last quarter, I'm not thinking YOLO on an FD type high risk high reward, but I'd definitely like to dabble in options. And this is the portion of my investment that I'm most open to suggestions and ideas. I have some basic ideas though. My 1st idea is to keep a quarter of the portfolio in cash and sell cash secured puts on companies that I actually wouldn't mind buying 100 shares of at the strike. I'd want to continually do this up until the day I inevitably get assigned and then actually purchase those shares. A couple of tickers that I have in mind for playing like this are SNAP and NCLH, (yeah cruise line RH meme stock I know). At which point I'd acquire the shares and then sell covered calls on the shares on the way up, just to reap in additional benefits, again, not minding if I get assigned and have to sell them for that strike. I kind of like this idea the best out of any that I've had, just because it seems like the lowest risk, I'd be able to acquire 100 shares of a company that I see growth in, which would probably be the smartest long term play anyways. My 2nd idea is to buy LEAPS on banks, specifically JPM or C. I'd just buy calls within +5% of the strike and buy the furthest dated out possible. Simple yeah but I think getting a play with that much time and that much potential delta is a good idea, and its relatively low risk compared to my last idea. My last idea is definitely the riskiest and basically, it's just buying calls for cruises and airlines for June of next year. A potential vaccine announcement, stimulus in the form of travel expense related tax write-offs, as well as the incoming wave of cabin-fever induced travel frenzy are all factors that could honestly cause them to pop-off at any time within the next year. TLDR; I'm a 22-year-old inheriting somewhere between $25,000-$30,000 this week and I want to manage the money myself. I'm pretending that each 8'th is about $3,000 to be conservative. My general idea is this: Long-term, low risk: 1/8 – US indices, specifically SPY, DOW, and QQQ. Let me know what you think about putting either the SPY or QQQ portion into SPXL or TQQQ. 1/8 – Banks, probably literally just JPM and C, maybe a little bit of WFC but they suck. 1/8 – Dividend stocks, specifically SPHD, MO, KO, ABBV, SPG, and VYM. 1/8 – Want to allocate to a low-risk, long-term strategy and would like suggestions on what to allocate this to. Higher risk, higher reward: 1/4 – High growth stocks and ETF's, specifically ARKK, SOCL, SMH, AMD, FSLY, TSLA, APPL, MSFT, FB, and AMZN. 1/4 – Three different ideas. 1. Sell cash secured puts on SNAP and NCLH until I get assigned, at which point hold the shares and sell covered calls. 2. LEAPS on banks. 3. LEAPS on travel. Open to suggestions, advice, criticism, anything. Any input at all is appreciated. Thanks everyone! [link] [comments]  |
| The FED may be implementing measures not seen since WW2 Posted: 08 Jul 2020 09:53 AM PDT I found this information VERY helpful, it is a very interesting look at some of the measures the FED has in their back pocket. I suggest everyone looks into Yield Curve Control, They are essentially thinking about reducing the debt bubble via inflation instead of paying it off. Japan and Australia are currently doing this. It will mean cash value down, stock value up. Lyn Alden is a value investor with a background in finance and engineering who focuses on long term fundamental investing on a global macro level. In the 1930s the United States had a deflationary crush because of a high private debt bubble that had built up in the 1920s - with major bank failures the economy lost around a 3rd of the broad money supply. Then the US devalued the dollar from the gold peg from 1/20 to 1/35 of an ounce of Gold per dollar. In the 1940s the United States had a federal debt bubble. 100% federal debt to GDP running at 20 -30% deficits to GDP to finance the war. The Fed locked treasury yields at 2.5% and bought dollars to maintain that peg. From there, the US saw double digit inflation in 1942 and 1947 as a result of this rapid increase in the money supply. Treasury yields then lost money on a real basis, and the debt was inflated away by devaluing the dollar relative to the fixed debt that existed. Currently, the Federal Debt bubble is at 120% deficit as a percentage of GDP. This is all time high levels. The US has increased the money supply and increased the debt to money supply ratio. This is going to hit hard in terms of inflation. The Fed can't impact GDP but they control the money supply. By using practices like commercial lending the Fed can do extended unemployment, helicopter checks, infrastructure bills, and tax cuts to gives more money back to the public that isn't funded by taxes or lending. In 2008, the capital created went to recapitalize banks. Now QE is spilling over into the broader market as the damage is much worse than ever before. If this continues over several more years, with tax decreases, extended spending levels, expect a faster money supply increase. With will lead to massive inflation. The increase in domestic debt has gone from $15 trillion to $18 trillion year to date. With supply disruptions and de-globalization along with fiscal spending we could be up for a massive deflationary period in the coming decade. Using Yield curve control the US will try and deflate away most of the debt. Yield curve control is a way to manage debt. The money supply is a denominator for the velocity calculation when comparing GDP to money supply if the money supply is increased quickly but the GDP doesn't increase as fast, then the velocity will be lower as the money supply doesn't mean core growth. The silver lining is the US dollar purchasing power has increased even with the additional printing of money. But will the dollar remain strong relative to other currencies? Some variable to watch: \Fed tapering treasury support *Slowing the rate of balance sheet increases What the Fed does with monetizing spending packages will make a big impact on the strength of the dollar. Liquidity Swaps and International Repo are two programs by the Fed that protects the world treasury market. In order to maintain global reserve status swap lines has doubled in emerging markets and major countries to keep the dollar supply going. The US is growing its money supply faster than any other country in the history of the world.* https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/federal-reserve-to-decide-targeting-bond-yields-makes-sense VIDEO LINK IN COMMENTS SINCE FIRST POST WAS REMOVED DUE TO THIS - 40min conversations with Lyn Alden, I dont really care for the guy but she is a wealth of knowledge. I hope this post helps others. Good luck! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jul 2020 06:02 AM PDT Thinking about taking a large chunk of my savings and dumping it in a stock like JPM that's still heavily beat down (still hovering around 35% off it's 52-wk high) but which is still yielding a solid dividend of 3.9%. Why is this a bad idea, and what stock would you pick instead and why? [link] [comments]  |
| Stocks and Earnings Spreadsheet Tracker Posted: 08 Jul 2020 06:18 AM PDT Hi everyone, I wanted to share my stock tracking file, in the hope it can serve other people as well. it contains portfolio tracker, quick research tool, upcoming earnings tool, R:R ratio check, trading idea check (when you want to run scenarios), trade log and watchlist. Portfolio, Research and watchlist tabs are populated automatically when typing in a symbol (i marked in yellow). Earning will populate automatically with data when a date is inserted (it might be a bit slow since its scraping info from various sources). Trading ideas and R:R are useful when you want to run a play and check the expected profit/loss. Just don't forget to choose if the play is LONG or SHORT. and of course the Trade Log to write it all down. You can find the spreadsheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KKOM63IHo1QalaNOdZV1PwDfouAOR-xnkaQZ7g6B8mc/edit?usp=sharing Choose 'File'> 'Make a copy' in order to save it I really hope it can serve you, let me know if you have any comments, questions or any feedback. [link] [comments]  |
| $TWTR on a tear on rumors of a new subscription platform Posted: 08 Jul 2020 07:49 AM PDT Anyone have any info on this? Seems like the new service will be called "griffin" Edit **Not really a rumor, there is a job posting. ** [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jul 2020 08:26 AM PDT Anyone else experiencing a daily peak around 10 am and then a proceeding slow decline erasing all profits? Every day the last 2 weeks I've hit a high of like +3% at 10 am and then by EOD I'm lucky if I'm up +0.5% - it's like clockwork. Is this happening to anyone else? If so, why? [link] [comments]  |
| Anyone else big on O, Realty income Corp Posted: 08 Jul 2020 10:11 AM PDT They've been giving out increasing dividends every month since 1994, and they have had steady stock growth in that time span as well. Monthly dividends, with the potential of 1.5-5 gains a year seems amazing. Would now be a good price to get in at? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jul 2020 12:24 PM PDT If I had to put all 2k into one of these three stocks which one should I put it into and why? Considering my portfolio is already diversified in other sectors etc etc. Should I do all in now or wait? (DCA is possible but with a 5$ commission fee, is it worth it?) [link] [comments]  |
| Defense stocks - what the heck is going on Posted: 07 Jul 2020 08:52 PM PDT I've had discussion with a couple people on why defense is doing so poorly right now, wanted to get a broader general opinion. I'm going to leave BA and RTX out because of their large commercial exposure but leave in GD, HII and LHX since it's much smaller. I'll focus on a core of LMT/NOC/GD/LHX/HII but this can be extended to others like KTOS, LDOS, CACI etc. Here are today's closing prices for reference: LMT - $354 / NOC - $304 / GD - $145 / LHX - $168 / HII - $168 Defense stocks - what the heck is happening? Taking a look over the last month: LMT is down 15% / NOC is down 12% / GD is down 13% / LHX is down 19% / HII is down 18% And the question is why? Particularly in the case of NOC and LMT that are as close to pure plays as you can get - why are defense contractors hemorrhaging? Some of these are trading near their post-March crash lows 1 - Revenue is nearly unaffected by COVID, and backlogs keep growing Defense contracts have long award processes and are usually multi-year and booked in advance. Here are some of the ridiculous backlog sizes from the first quarter LMT - backlog of $144 billion NOC - backlog of $64 billion GD - backlog of $86 billion LHX - not sure? Didn't see it in the May earnings call - It's somewhere near $20 billion for the end of last year and the book to bill increased slightly, so somewhere around there HII - backlog of $42 billion LMT and NOC noted that COVID would have insignificant impacts to revenue and fronted payments to their suppliers in some cases to help them out. Most contractors had a positive book to bill with increased sales and increasing margins 2 - Target prices are miles away and a ton of buy ratings I'm going to pull some average target prices from WSJ LMT - average $430, upside of 21% NOC - average $389, upside of 28% GD - average of $171, upside of 18% LHX - average of $240, upside of 42% HII - average of $222, upside of 32% 3 - Defense spending is not shrinking any time soon, tensions are rising The new National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) has been flying through approvals, and allocated $741B for spending. The current bill is allocated at $738B. This flew through the Senate Armed Services Committee with a 25-2 pass and will probably pass both Senate and House, as it seems defense spending is the one thing every one agrees on. And we are not the only nation increasing spending US and China relations have deteriorated. Australia just announced a big beef up, raising their spending goal over the next decade from $135B to $187B. Japan's been increasing their spending for years, as has SK and everyone else in the region. Big wins for companies like RTX, LMT and others involved Europe has been flat but Middle East is buffing up. India over the winter announced the purchase of several billion in US helicopters and imports will probably grow if tensions with China continue 4 - Not dependent on a China trade deal Sticking this here due to futures crashing briefly overnight after Navarro made his late night comments a couple weeks ago. If things do go south with that deal, it will not effect revenue Not to mention pluses such as a nice dividend, industry preference towards established giants due to high entry costs, etc. Hilariously enough, I found an old article from the end of 2018 that had the same feeling I do now After this article was written, defense had a major major outperform year in 2019. LMT stock price grew 50% in 2019 for instance, similar to NOC So - what gives? Is defense really just not sexy? Are these companies just thrown in with industrials and traded in step with the rest of the market? Am I crazy? EDIT: full disclosure I do have calls on NOC and LMT [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jul 2020 10:49 AM PDT IPO'ed today. Blank check company, healthcare/biopharm space. Can't find out anything about it. Any ideas? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jul 2020 11:43 AM PDT Alright guys, I've been seeing a lot of discussion of NIO stock lately and do you guys personally think it's too high to buy right now? If you had to bet (obviously there's no way you could really know so please don't get mad at me for asking this question) but where do you think the stock will be in a year? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jul 2020 11:39 AM PDT Why has RTX stayed fairly stagnant, with the exception to the $3 uptick last week due to their new 2.3B missile contract? It's approaching 60 or below today. Any thoughts or reasoning? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jul 2020 11:04 AM PDT Anyone know of any news as to why the stock rose 2 points today? I don't see any headlines that came out today, just seemed weird. [link] [comments]  |
| $NVDA is now more valuable than $Intel based on the market cap! Congratulations! Posted: 08 Jul 2020 01:29 PM PDT |
| Posted: 08 Jul 2020 08:36 AM PDT Would anyone like to explain this process that ETFs would undergo in the aftermath of this inclusion? Is it as simple as a bunch of stock will get bought up? If so, I imagine these ETFs that track the S&P 500 have already prepared for this and bought a bunch up, thus making a decent amount priced in. However, I know nothing about the process, so I'm spit-balling what I think is logical. [link] [comments]  |
| NKLA, and Analysts in general.. Posted: 08 Jul 2020 12:24 PM PDT one analyst says NKLA its overvalued it goes from 70 to 40.... the next day an analyst at JP morgan is like no.. its time to buy it.. everyone buys, now its up to 52.... Do you think these analysts have calls and puts on these stocks? ..on their own calls. would that be legal? they can move the market so easily, doesnt sound right to me [link] [comments]  |
| Is now a good time to invest in stocks? Posted: 08 Jul 2020 12:13 PM PDT Is now a good time to invest in stocks? Principally, I would like to start saving for retirement (I am 29). It also would be nice to have my money work for me. I would like to invest in clean energy ETFs. Invesco PBW looks promising. It's apparent the stock market has not seen it's worse with the way the US is handling and experiencing the pandemic. Plus if Biden wins, the stock market is expected to go down. I am sitting on money I am not using (about 30K). Would it be a good idea to invest now? [link] [comments]  |
| Interesting IPO coming on Friday Posted: 08 Jul 2020 09:22 AM PDT Quhuo Limited (QH) This seems interesting, so this is like uber, but in china. Mainly delivery services for companies switching to digitized Business models and e commerce. They provide the things listed below.
QH has a nationwide footprint in 73 cities among 26 provinces including top tier provinces and lower-tier cities.For the three months ended December 31, 2019, the company had more than 40,800 on-demand, active workers. Have partners like KFC already. Delivery obviously is bullish for Covid & viral outbreaks. The strength of these Chinese stocks are wild, so interesting to see what this tiny float will do. Quhuo has received at least $148.1 million from investors including Quhuo Holdings, Baidu Online (BIDU), SBCVC, and ClearVue YummyExpress. As of December 31, 2019, Quhuo had $26.3 million in cash and $70.3 million in total liabilities. Free cash flow during the twelve months ended December 31, 2019, was negative ($17,000). This Will IPO Friday with a tiny float of 2.7 million. Share your thoughts below, interested to see what you guys think. ** edit, IMO this would be a quick flip not a long hold** [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jul 2020 10:34 AM PDT Am reading some posts about this company. It has the reason to blow up soon and it's legit since covid is helping its business, but it seems like nobody actually cares yet. What do you think? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jul 2020 08:15 AM PDT I got into investing over quarantine so my understanding of the market is pretty limited. I bought 3 shares of DPST because pre-pandemic it was trading around $400-500 and I was hoping it would bounce back and I was getting a lot of equity out of it. Well over the past month it's been in a steady decline. I bought two at $60 and one at $80 and now it's heading towards $40. Just wondering if I should cut my losses or not. Any advice would be greatly appreciated! [link] [comments]  |
| Cost Basis Calculation Logic - Is It Sound? Posted: 08 Jul 2020 02:10 PM PDT I often play mind games with myself when it comes to buying/selling stock, but I would like your perspective on whether this approach is actually sound/logical. Let's say I have 20 shares of XXX stock at $100, which grows 70% over the first year. I am long on XXX and bullish about its prospects and would like to add to my position. From my research, I find that XXX has a 20% downside risk ($156) and a 15% upside risk ($204). Assuming I am confident/comfortable with those range of outcomes, I would like to place an order for 80 more shares of XXX stock at today's price of $170, bringing up my cost basis on all my shares to $156. Thus, if the absolutely downside occurs - my worst case scenario is that I break even. The upside is that I have 100 shares. (Not that I would sell at this point, but again - mind games). Is this a logical/advisable way of looking at my current positions and strategizing how much more stock to buy? [link] [comments]  |
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