Stocks - As soon as Warren Buffett says airline is screwed and sells his entire stock, Motely Fool comes in with the best take. |
- As soon as Warren Buffett says airline is screwed and sells his entire stock, Motely Fool comes in with the best take.
- Is this sub going to be renamed /r/buffet?
- Gilead CEO says remdesivir available to coronavirus patients this week: ‘We’ve donated the entire supply’
- Where the market is headed and why...plus virus update
- The crystal ball and financial litteracy status of the subreddit
- Are airlines a good or bad investment? A deeper look at that question
- Blood bath
- MFA Discussion
- RTX
- Buffett says he was ‘wrong’ about the airlines
- Relax with the Warren B Talk
- What's happening with Arabian stocks?
- What do you all plan to do since Warren Buffett is selling and the Coronavirus is still around?
- Why am I still holding on to Airlines Stock even after Buffets sell off?
- Finviz screener - EPS growth next 5 years
- Best websites for news for certain stocks I want to follow?
- Is LUV or an airline ETF a good buy right now?
- gilead CEO says remdesivir available to coronavirus patients this week
- Rate my 50k investment portfolio for 5-8 year term
- What industries and stocks could be an attractive investment now considering the current pandemic?
- Roche Holdings recieves FDA-EUA approval
- Buffet sold his entire stake in airlines
- Short position after put expires ITM
| Posted: 03 May 2020 06:40 AM PDT https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/market-rally-time-buy-air-133048258.html You really can't make this stuff up [link] [comments]  |
| Is this sub going to be renamed /r/buffet? Posted: 03 May 2020 05:40 AM PDT First page is literally full of Buffet everything. It's like a buffet of Buffet here. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 May 2020 08:12 AM PDT "We've donated the entire supply that we have within our supply chain and we did that because we acknowledge and recognize the human suffering, the human need here, and want to make sure nothing gets in the way of this getting to patients," O'Day added. Think their stock takes a hit Monday? I can't imagine shareholders being too happy with giving away the entire supply. (Good on them though, from a human being stand point) [link] [comments]  |
| Where the market is headed and why...plus virus update Posted: 03 May 2020 08:03 AM PDT I'll reiterate these are just my opinions, but all of the numbers or stats I mention are correct from sources like WSJ, Bloomberg, NYT etc. plus individual research. The virus: As Im sure you've seen recently there has been a lot of media coverage on Remdesivir, the first possible therapeutic for COVID. I have seen various different claims to how effective it is, from Gilead the maker to obscure media outlets like STAT which originally reported it was very effective at wiping out the virus. The WHO leaked the results of a study from China last week that claimed there was no statistical significance between patients who were given a regimen of the drug, and those who werent. This study was double-blind, and had a control group, but was smallish with only I believe around 100 participants. The WHO then pulled this article from their site shortly after it went up. Days later, the official report from China was released the morning of the GDP drop of the month of March which came in at -4.8%, the biggest drop since 2009. Funnily enough, that same morning both the GDP report and the small China study were released for Remdesivir, Gilead came out saying that a study in the US patients given the drug resulted in a drop of hospitalization time from 14 days to 11 days, with ~50% of patients improving who had severe results. This covered up the China story quickly. The market jumped 3% and it was blasted on all media outlets that this was the first therapeutic. The flaw in this study was there was no control group, so in my opinion it is nearly impossible to measure how succesful the drug was. It was also not coincidence that this news dropped the same day as the official China study came out. I remain skeptical at how good this drug will turn out to be, but there are much larger studies set to be released in the coming weeks. There are also over 200 different therapies and vaccine trials going on worldwide. Without getting too far into detail, Bill Gates sees 7-10 vaccine trials as being very hopeful with a timeframe of 9-18 months. I personally believe it will be by the end of the year we have a good vaccine option or therapeutic with 90% + effectiveness that will only be available for emergency use. Gates sees the logistics of making billions of drug doses safely as the larger challenge, and that taking longer than expected because it's literally never been done. In terms of the latest research about mortality and contagion, it seems that the R-naught (how many people you spread the virus to once you are infected) is much higher than anticipated. Bill Gates seems to think it's around 5. So for every one person who gets it, you give it to 5 people if left unmitigated. Obviously an exponential curve. The reason its so difficult to contain is because how much of a "viral load" you are exposed to determines how symptomatic you are, and how sick you get- for the most part. There are reports of people having very high loads and not being symptomatic. Again a reason why its so difficult to track. Social distancing has reduced this R-naught in nearly every state to below 1 or to about 0.8 in most places, which is maintained the virus would eventually fizzle out slowly. Unfortunately, the minute restrictions are lifted the number will rise possibly to above 1 and you will see cases start to climb exponentially again. A great website that illustrates this I've linked here: https://rt.live/ Mortality is tricky because it is so biased on age. It seems that the mortality rate on average will be much lower than the ~5% current US statistics report. This is because the denominator for the calculation is likely between 10-50 times larger depending on location than reported cases. An antibody study for NY saw that around 20% of the population has had the virus already. My guess is places where outbreaks are bad the numbers are much higher than reported, and places where numbers are low the reported cases are much more accurate. In all likelihood we will never know the actual number. The death rate for young healthy people without underlying conditions is about 0. The death rate for anyone around 40 without underlying conditions is close to 0, and anyone above 40 with underlying conditions it is pretty dangerous to risk going out. About 95% of the cases are considered "mild", but mild cases are like the worst flu you've ever had, and the symptoms last for weeks. Also new reports suggest not only does this ravage the lungs, but it can also cause permanent heart and brain damage for unknown reasons. People have reported upticks in seizures after getting the virus. All in all not great. I believe we are past the biggest peak of cases if things continue as they have been, but opening up will cause there to be more peaks to come. Probably we will have limited opening and closing of much of the economy all over the country at different points until we have herd immunity or a breakthrough in medicine. The best visual I've seen is a sinusoidal wave that has lower peak to troughs as time goes on. The Y axis being new cases, the X being time. The one anomaly that gives me hope is Sweden which has not locked down but it seems slowly gained/gaining herd immunity. A more likely scenario for the US is Singapore, which is now undergoing strict lockdowns after an initial first wave- they are in the second. What I see is indisputable at this point is we won't ever go back to a complete normal until a vaccine or a 95% + therapeutic. The economy The last email I sent on March 22nd I mentioned now was the first time I'd buy into the market since the peak for certain companies based on how steep the drop was. By sheer luck, it was the day before the market bottomed on March 23rd. If you had bought some of the stocks that I suggested on the day of the email (which not even I did all of them) most of the companies are up around ~50% with some like Chipotle and some of the hotel and cruise stocks up about ~100% since just 5 weeks ago. Now, I believe we are on the other side of where we were, which is absurdly overbought. Let me explain why. As I mentioned last time, there were multiple enormous stimulus packages that were released during the past five weeks. The fed successfully backstopped the credit and equity markets from completely collapsing, which would have happened if they didn't flood an unprecedented amount of liquidity into both markets. On a daily basis for the past few weeks the fed has bought around $70 billion of credit, more than entire months of the last few years. They have slowly waned off of this ridiculous buying, but what it did besides stabalize markets is completely disconnect market fundamentals from prices. This is why we have seen an over 60% retracement of the initial drop in the stock market the past month. I believe this is now over, and I am taking a leap to say the peak of the rally was last Thursday. I could be wrong, but from a technical perspective a number of indicators say Thursday might've been it. I am suggesting if you are in stocks that have had a significant updraft since the lows of the past few weeks, I would sell into strength. Despite the unprecedented measures of monetary and fiscal stimulus brought on by the government, and the media headlines of the 'new bull market', the government can only support, not supplant consumer demand. Estimates of corporate earnings continue to rocket downwards, and the most recent GDP estimate for Q2 is between 30-40% decline. This is not on an annualized basis, but then you need to consider the rebound which is why the market has recovered so much- all hope that the recovery will be V shaped. I believe the recovery wont be nearly as fast as the market has priced in, which is a V. Trump seems to be on this side which has promoted what I consider false hope in many. Even if there is a relatively fast medical breakthrough, 30 million people are now unemployed, with the actual number likely 20% or more higher than 30 million. This means that every single job since the financial crisis' peak unemployment is now gone. 30 million people is 18% of the labor force. Many of these jobs might be temporary layoffs, but the labor participation rate has been declining since the 90s. And with the government's generous $600 a week unemployment check plus state unemployment, anyone making less than $15 an hour would be making less working than sitting at home. In other words, the government is incentivizing companies to lay off workers. These benefits will likely go into 2021, greatly slowing the economic recovery. Also, most small restaurants and consumer businesses cannot sustainably be open at 25% capacity. It is more economically viable to stay closed with no expenses other than rent and utilities than be open paying employees more than $15 an hour at 1/4 capacity with 1/4 tips. The market We have retraced and bounced off of the 61% level, an important level many people trade on. We also broke the uptrend from the past few weeks, and were trading on ever thinning volume. Additionally, Buffet's favorite market indicator tracking market-cap/GDP is at an all-time high. The market is also extremely top heavy, meaning 5 companies make up more than 20% of the total S&P market cap. Commodities are also tanking, with oil below 20$ a barrel, hitting -40 last week for a day. The last time all of these conditions were in place while the market ticked every higher on hope was the 2001 internet bubble. This is where it gets interesting, if you werent already riveted by this rambling mess of an email. During the market crash, 7/10 retail market participants (us) didnt motify their positions at all. Of the 3 that did, the vast majority actually added stocks, only 16% sold them. One of the key indicators of a market bottom is capitulation, when everyone thinks it'll never end. The market bottoms when there is no one else left to sell. 16% selling doesn't sound like capitulation to me. Looking at fundamentals, the forward-12 months earnings for the aggregate S&P has been falling precipitously over the past few weeks with the consensus is around $125 a share, a 30% drop from pre-coronavirus levels. This is how much earnings dropped in 2008, and I think this drop will be worse overall so in my opinion it is a conservative estimate. Multiplying that by the average P/E ratio of the past 50 years you get 2,100 for the S&P. Multiplying it by a more realistic number you get 1800. We are trading at ~2850 as of close Friday. This would give an implied P/E forward looking ratio of ~23, the second highest in history after the 2001 bubble. I don't think we will hit 1800 as of now because of what the fed has done, but it isn't out of the question. Many highly regarded investors like Scott Minerd, Jeff Gundlach, and Ray Dalio agree. Minerd sees a worst-case of 1500 for the S&P. In summay, I believe we are at the peak of a long term debt cycle. I believe the levels of debt accumulated during this crisis will inhibit investment from consumers and corporations for years to come. 40% of Americans couldn't afford an unexpected expense of $400 without taking on debt before this crisis- during the longest economic expansion in US history. Over the past decade the recovery was the slowest ever since WWII, and the interest rates never got above 2.5% historically very very low, which begs the question why was it so slow? This will change consumer behavior like the Great Depression did, hopefully for the better. But the enormous government responses globally will also fundamentally change how the world operates. Printing money at billions a week is not sustainable, and inflation will occur at some point. For now, the dollar is in such high demand we are likely to see a sustained period of delation, which further hurts an economic recovery and investment. Why would you hire a new employee now if it will cost you less in the future- deflation. I know this sounds doom and gloom, but it's not meant to be. Buffet had his annual meeting today and said America will get through this, and I totally agree. It's just I believe this is a 9/11 or great depression type event that will change our behavior in ways that we don't know yet. Honestly, in the long run probably positively. But from a growth perspective and from the market, it does offer an opportunity. I hope this didn't bore you to death. It was part from a paper I'm writing and part something I have fun doing. The attached pic shows the grey box as my best guess of where I think the market is going. I could be totally wrong, but if I am I'm going to question everything I know about finance because that'll prove money grows on trees. Then again Tesla is the second most valuable car company in the world worth $150 billion and its stock is up 70% for the year, and it had income of $16 million the last quarter- so maybe money does grow on trees. Again feel free to offer any thoughts. TLDR: The market is headed to 2100-1800 and we reached the peak of the rally last week. [link] [comments]  |
| The crystal ball and financial litteracy status of the subreddit Posted: 03 May 2020 08:05 AM PDT Disclaimer: I'm not here to shit on newcomers but in all honesty around 60% of the posts in the past few weeks haven't been contributing to the subreddit at all in a meaning full way. Since the big bull(trap) rally the past month a lot of posts have appeared with the title "Where will x be in x days and how do I trade it?" or "What do I do if I want to learn about stocks or x ticker?". The first type of posts are just plain stupid, nobody on this subreddit has a crystal ball that they can look into and say x will rise x% in the next x days. If they do they are more than free to DM me their details. A lot of newcomers need to realise that nobody is going to do their Due Diligence for them and instead of creating the 100th post today asking what x stock is going to do next week they should perhaps instead just do their own DD. No schmuck on this forum knows where the market is going, there isn't a holy grail to trading and every investment bears the risk with it, stop trying to ask people for entry prices and what the stock will do next week. If you want to have a meaningful conversation regarding stock valuation then make a due diligence post and start a conversation instead. As for the next type of post regarding getting into investments, please just do a quick google search. Investopedia offers a wide range of financial literacy articles and you can also sign up for their newsletter list that will deliver relevant market/economics news into your inbox. Its honestly a bit annoying seeing the 50th thread in one's feed about how to get into investing, google has many more answers regarding such basic question than what you will get out of posting on this subreddit. Please try and refrain from having people explain what a stock is, where to buy them and how much you should buy of them. If you don't do your own research you won't ever get smarter/better because you are relying on people to spoonfeed you information. As a closing note I want to say to the newcomers, don't make threads about the basics (there is a ton of them and lots of resources about it on the web explaining it better than this subreddit). Instead, try and spark relevant conversations by posting due diligence or questions related to market news rather than using the subreddit as a babysitting service, it makes it a better browsing experience for all, if the threads are academically oriented and relevant to ALL its readers and not just the poster. [link] [comments]  |
| Are airlines a good or bad investment? A deeper look at that question Posted: 03 May 2020 09:08 AM PDT Warren Buffett was the talk of r/stocks yesterday, and still is to a degree. Today, the underlying theme appears to be the airlines. With the impending sell-off tomorrow of the airlines don't assume you're seeing a buying opportunity. Let's dig a bit deeper in what's to come of the airlines and potential investments moving forward. As most of you already know, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway recently sold their holdings in the four major airlines. Warren Buffett stated "It's obviously changed in the fact that the four companies are each going to borrow perhaps an average of at least $10 to $12 billion each. You have to pay that back out of earnings over some period of time." As investors we must ask ourselves the following, should we heed Mr. Buffett's warning or act contrarian and invest in the airlines? I for one have no interest in the airlines now, this was my stance before the Warren Buffett news broke and after. Let's consider the following: - At one point, airline travel was down 96% With demand low for the foreseeable future an immediate recovery of the airlines is unlikely. Additionally, we stand the risk of a repeat of the early 2000s where we saw record airline mergers. Following 9/11 the United States consolidated from nine major carriers down to the big four now. Much like what is happening now with the legislative branch of government authorizing an airline bailout, a similar bailout occurred in 2001. The bailout wasn't enough to save the airlines then and mergers subsequently happened. So what does this mean for potential investment opportunities now? I personally believe the big four airlines (Delta, American, Southwest, and United) will survive in some capacity. Don't take this to believe you're safe investing in any of them? One or all could eventually go into bankruptcy to restructure debt. What about the smaller airlines? Frontier, Spirit, and jetBlue all have primarily Airbus fleets. The similarity in airframes could help with a potential merger. Currently all three are operating off substantially diminished demand. Spirit has parked roughly 68% of their fleet, Frontier 46%, and jetBlue 65%. If current demand and future bookings remain low it's very unlikely one or all of these smaller airlines will survive. If demand and future bookings remain low all airlines, big and small, will suffer in the immediate near term resulting in potential bankruptcies without massive cash infusions. Massive cash infusions will further diminish potential investor returns. Consider the big picture before investing in the airlines, a massive sell off and record low prices may not be the great investment opportunity everyone seems to believe. Tldr; Airlines are a risky investment and you could lose everything! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 May 2020 10:58 AM PDT |
| Posted: 03 May 2020 12:43 PM PDT I came across the MFA stock and noticed it has been steadily trading around $8 for the last 5 years. It is now at 1.71. Could this financial group return to pre corona figures once the economy reopens? Just wanna hear you guys thoughts. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 May 2020 09:50 AM PDT Just curious why a lot of people are bullish on Raytheon Technologies? Would this be a good growth stock to consider? [link] [comments]  |
| Buffett says he was ‘wrong’ about the airlines Posted: 02 May 2020 03:48 PM PDT https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting-live-updates.html " Warren Buffett said he made an "understandable mistake" when valuing the airline stocks as a near-global halt in travel due to the coronavirus sent their prices sharply lower. "When we bought [airlines], we were getting an attractive amount for our money when investing across the airlines," he said. "It turned out I was wrong about that business because of something that was not in any way the fault of four excellent CEOs. Believe me. No joy of being a CEO of an airline." "I don't know that 3-4 years from now people will fly as many passenger miles as they did last year .... you've got too many planes." Thought this would be worthwhile to post up here given the amount of discussion around airlines. Edit to add: Buffett clarified they sold the entire position in airlines. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 May 2020 11:57 AM PDT He bought into airlines at like almost 50$ per share like with Delta for example at 46$. He's just salty knowing It won't go back to that price anytime soon, maybe even before his life ends and rather put the money somewhere else for a quicker bounce back. Plus he'll probably buy back into airlines if they hit new lows and make money off his own nonsense. [link] [comments]  |
| What's happening with Arabian stocks? Posted: 03 May 2020 06:16 AM PDT |
| What do you all plan to do since Warren Buffett is selling and the Coronavirus is still around? Posted: 03 May 2020 02:08 PM PDT Warren Buffett sold all airline stocks with over $ 6billion. Although he bought $1.8 billion worth of Berkshire stocks and he praised the economy. He's obviously nervous about investing right now. What's the way forward? How long is the pandemic going to last? [link] [comments]  |
| Why am I still holding on to Airlines Stock even after Buffets sell off? Posted: 03 May 2020 02:01 PM PDT My portfolio is about 7% Airline Stocks. Delta Air (DAL) and Air Canada (AC). Both of which I bought during the dip AC at $15.40 and DAL at $22.55. I am up about 25% with AC and 1.3% with DAL. Given the circumstances I feel like Delta Air will go into red tomorrow morning. There will be some panic selling of airline stocks tomorrow which can move the price down. This is why I am thinking of holding and even adding to my position if DAL goes down to $17. At this point Delta has about a 10% ~ 12% chance of getting bankrupt which I think is a reasonable risk if you have a balanced portfolio. Delta Air is currently undervalued at $24.12. Delta Air has a pretty good past performance and a good balance sheet. Delta air has about 39.1 billion in asset and 19.1 billion in debt. With a little government bailout cash Delta can ride the storm and come out strong within 2 years. There is strong possibility of getting a pretty good return (about 44%) on Delta in long term. Here's why I think Warren Buffett got rid of Delta. By March, 2020 buffet was already holding a large stake in Delta, averaging $37.50 per stocks. So after 2~2.5 years if the stock goes back to 41$ he will not see a significant return. For Berkshire it is more profitable to simply hold cash and pursue some of the other stocks while the bear market lasts. Same goes for Air Canada. AC is undervalued and has a very good past performance. Although, Air Canada Earnings are forecast to decline by about 21.5% in next 2 years, Air Canada can have a strong rebound in 2~3 years. With Canadian government helping the business Air Canada also has a lower chance of bankruptcy. If the prices goes between $17~$16 range I will be adding to this position. It is highly unlikely that people will stop travelling due to COVID-19. As human we will adapt to new realities, so will our economy. I strongly believe that these Air lines will rebound and this is good opportunity to buy during the dip. I would love to hear what you guys think of this. [link] [comments]  |
| Finviz screener - EPS growth next 5 years Posted: 03 May 2020 01:19 PM PDT Beginner investor using Finviz screener with a few questions... What are the estimates for EPS growth for the next 5 years based on? And how does Finviz calculate these estimates? How reliable have these estimates been historically? [link] [comments]  |
| Best websites for news for certain stocks I want to follow? Posted: 03 May 2020 09:59 AM PDT Are there any websites where I can build a portfolio and then only receive news regarding those stocks? [link] [comments]  |
| Is LUV or an airline ETF a good buy right now? Posted: 03 May 2020 11:10 AM PDT Hello All, I'm thinking of adding 5% of my total portfolio in an airline or an airline ETF? Looks like LUV is at a 52 week low right now or would you all recommend an ETF instead? Thanks in advance for your help. [link] [comments]  |
| gilead CEO says remdesivir available to coronavirus patients this week Posted: 03 May 2020 08:43 AM PDT they're actually donating their entire supply. thoughts on this being the catalyst needed for a green week? [link] [comments]  |
| Rate my 50k investment portfolio for 5-8 year term Posted: 03 May 2020 02:08 PM PDT Will DCA down throughout the next few weeks. 20k VOO 10k Air Canada 5k Boeing 5K ERI 5k TTD 2.5k OXY 2.5k AQN [link] [comments]  |
| What industries and stocks could be an attractive investment now considering the current pandemic? Posted: 03 May 2020 03:51 AM PDT I am trying to think of industries or more specifically companies that might become more valuable, due to the direct and indrect affects of the current pandemic. For example, home office work should become more popular? Will this potentially positively affect telecommuncation and gaming industries? Will consulting fims that require phsyical employee presence at a clients office, be negatively affected? What do you guys think? [link] [comments]  |
| Roche Holdings recieves FDA-EUA approval Posted: 03 May 2020 01:27 PM PDT So I picked up some Roche Holdings: $RHHBY shares the other day on the assumption that they control a large portion of the market for Deep Vein Thrombosis treatment after reading how Dr's seem to be observing a large increase in patients who've recovered from COVID experiencing strokes, regardless of age or underlying health conditions. Figured it was a good play long-ish term for ongoing treatment for most (if not all) who've experienced COVID, which will likely be all of us unfortunately. However, I saw this little gem come across my feed today, sneaky little guy tried flying under the radar! ...thinking that might provide a nice little bump next week and allow me to recover my capital, then average back down after the news cycle completes. Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Buffet sold his entire stake in airlines Posted: 02 May 2020 04:03 PM PDT Buffet mentioned Berkshire sold entire stake in four largest airlines $AAL, $DAL, $UAL, $LUV. Saying "It's my mistake" How does this change the sentiment in these in next few weeks to months? [link] [comments]  |
| Short position after put expires ITM Posted: 03 May 2020 01:11 PM PDT I've spent hours online looking for an answer to this simple question: I'd never let an option exercise until this weekend. I had 4 puts ITM at close on Friday. On Saturday morning I'm short 100 shares of each stock. Is that how it ends? Do I need to "buy to cover" to close each position or does the broker automatically buy the shares? Can I hold the short positions for couple days if the price keeps going lower? It doesn't matter to me either way. I just need to know if the next move is on me or the broker. Thanks fam! [link] [comments]  |
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