Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- With the US 10-year Treasury dropping to a record low of 1.32%, we're probably going to see negative US bond yields in the not-too-distant future. Shit's gonna get weird, people.
- CDC Warns It Expects Coronavirus to Spread in U.S.
- This sub is going to be drowning in tears once we hit a real recession
- The stock market is plunging for a second day, with the Dow now down 800 points Tuesday
- No one should care about the DOW (DJIA)
- I'm Nick Leeson, if you think you're doing badly, i once lost 1.4 billion! I'm doing an AMA
- Bob Chapek has been named Chief Executive Officer, The Walt Disney Company, effective immediately; Bob Iger to remain exec. chairman through 2021
- BBC updates on Corona - Reliable source providing more reasonably timed articles
- Bob Iger to step down as Disney CEO, effective immediately
- Unpopular opinion: Real Estate is a terrible investment
- "Put your money where your mouth is" is kinda ruining this sub.
- What's up with gold prices today?
- China stocks rise as Beijing says work resumption is speeding up
- Sustainable ETF for Africa
- How do you track your portfolio?
- Salesforce Co-CEO Keith Block steps down; Marc Benioff will be sole CEO
- Futures
- Would you buy more Bitcoin if it was lower volatility? On both the upside and downside.
- Buy GILD, not MRNA
- Who has been buying so far in this slight pull back?
- Stocks that went up or stayed the same during the 2008 recession?
- Is it sensible to buy IUAG aggregate bond ETF?
- Thoughts on my Roth portfolio?
- A Guided Meditation for When the Stock Market Is Dropping
- Mkt might not be going down because of why you think it is going down
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 26 Feb 2020 04:13 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 25 Feb 2020 08:02 AM PST |
| CDC Warns It Expects Coronavirus to Spread in U.S. Posted: 25 Feb 2020 10:40 AM PST Official says authorities preparing for a potential pandemic; 'It's more a question of when'.
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| This sub is going to be drowning in tears once we hit a real recession Posted: 25 Feb 2020 10:46 AM PST Not only is a few % drop normal but when you add the backdrop of the last decade of expansion, it's downright expected. Even a 20% drop now still has us on a great streak over the last few years. [link] [comments]  |
| The stock market is plunging for a second day, with the Dow now down 800 points Tuesday Posted: 25 Feb 2020 11:14 AM PST |
| No one should care about the DOW (DJIA) Posted: 25 Feb 2020 11:52 AM PST Whenever I see media commentary on how well, or poorly, the DOW is doing on any given day I get irrationally annoyed by how meaningless that index is compared to others, and how people in the financial media should know better than to use it as an indicator of market performance. Context: I work in institutional investing and part of my job is analyzing investment funds to allocate capital to for a multi-billion dollar portfolio. So I spend a lot of time considering benchmarks to judge relative performance of the potential funds...no one uses the DJIA, and if they did they would get laughed out of the room. The reason for this is how the DOW is constructed compared to other indices. The DOW is made of 30 large blue chip stocks (nothing wrong with this part) but it weights those companies based on their stock price. Stock prices are arbitrary, you could have a $10bil market cap company have a higher stock price than a $100bil market cap company just because they have fewer shares outstanding. Based on how the DJIA is constructed a smaller company can have an outsized impact on "the market" if we take the DOW as the ideal representative. Take Boeing and Apple, both are part of the DOW. As I write this Boeing's share price is ~$305 and it's market cap is ~$180bil, Apple's share price is ~$290 and it's market cap is $1.3T. Based on how the DJIA is weighted Boeing represents more of the "market" than Apple, despite being ~1/10 the actual size. Other indices, like the S&P 500 are market cap weighted, so larger companies actually represent a proportional size of the "market" thus giving a better indication of how the market is actually performing. Thank you for humoring my rant, and hope you all fair well as the S&P is looking at another day of losing 3%. [link] [comments]  |
| I'm Nick Leeson, if you think you're doing badly, i once lost 1.4 billion! I'm doing an AMA Posted: 25 Feb 2020 10:14 AM PST Hi, I'm Nick Leeson, today is my birthday. It is also 25 years ago today since I broke the world's oldest merchant bank with illegal losing trades of over 1.4 billion dollars and the phrase, 'Rogue Trader' was coined. I was 28, the place was Singapore, and the bank was the Queen's own Barings PLC. Things went bad fast, two days prior I fled Singapore and faxed back a note to the bank with just the words "I'm sorry" I realised how bad, when waking up at the Shangri La Hotel in Kota Kinabalu. The Asian Wall Street Journal had been slid under the door, picking it up, the front-page headline read ' British Bank collapse'. I decided I needed to get further away, back to England. I boarded a flight back that day via Germany. The plane was met on the runway in Frankfurt by German police. I was extradited, sentenced to 6 and ½ years in a Triad led prison in Singapore. I got cancer, spent a month in solitary, wrote a book, had a movie made about me starring Ewan McGregor and served 4 ½ years for good behaviour. I am now back trading and you can follow along at bullandbearcap.com. I'm hosting an AMA shortly at 7pm UK time, feel free to ask me anything about anything. I'll answer questions there rather than here. Nick Edit: the AMA is on r/IAmA/. I'm new to reddit and still trying to figure out how i get the link to even post on it when it's live! ... i prefered fax! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 25 Feb 2020 01:13 PM PST |
| BBC updates on Corona - Reliable source providing more reasonably timed articles Posted: 26 Feb 2020 12:56 AM PST Many of you already might have seen the rather sparse news coverage on Corona. The BBC is keeping things up to date at the following link. I'm seeing a regular drop of 3-4 stories every top of the hour. Keep your tendies warm and your market wins in the green! https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-51628990 Here as of 3:45am EST are the last five headlines Markets 'will probably move down - 3:44 Rebecca McVittie, investment director at Fidelity International, says: "I think we should anticipate that this environment of heightened volatility and concern continues. Britain's race to contain the coronavirus - There were 12 days between Steve Walsh leaving a business conference in Singapore and finding out he had been infected with the new coronavirus. When he was tested, he did not even have any symptoms. Hundreds on lockdown in Tenerife hotel - Four cases of coronavirus have now been linked to a hotel on the Spanish island of Tenerife, El Pais reports. British holidaymakers are among hundreds ordered to stay in their rooms. Could North Korea handle an outbreak? - The country has closed its doors and quarantined hundreds of foreigners in an attempt to stop the virus from breaking out. Much of the population already suffers from malnourishment and poor health, and experts say some hospitals even lack electricity and running water. Drinks giant warns of profit hit as bars close - Drinks giant Diageo has warned that its profits in 2020 will be hit, as bars and restaurants are forced to close because of the coronavirus outbreak. The Guinness-owner said that operating profits were likely to be between £140m and £200m lower than expected, due to disruption in Asian markets. It joins companies such as Apple and Danone in warning about the impact of the deadly virus. [link] [comments]  |
| Bob Iger to step down as Disney CEO, effective immediately Posted: 25 Feb 2020 01:21 PM PST |
| Unpopular opinion: Real Estate is a terrible investment Posted: 25 Feb 2020 06:50 PM PST I believe real estate isn't a great investment for most people. After finance fees, taxes, insurance and maintenance I think there are simply too many expenses for the average person to come out ahead or at least make any solid money. If someone planned to rent out their property they would also need to get lucky with good tenants. With rates being so low now I do believe this has encouraged more people to buy. This obviously has helped bring real estate prices higher. And while real estate is considered the safer play it is still not immune to losing value. While calling real estate a "terrible" investment could be extreme I do believe most people in general think buying a property is a safe and sure fire play. [link] [comments]  |
| "Put your money where your mouth is" is kinda ruining this sub. Posted: 25 Feb 2020 03:26 PM PST I've been following this sub for a while now, and I always liked how this sub has always been more focused on long term investment strategies and company fundamentals and macroeconomic discussions. It's understandable that people have different opinions and disagree frequently, but maybe it's due to the influence of a particular sub, recently I've seen over and over again the disagreeing argument is nothing more than "well put your money where your mouth is and show us those Put options" or "Let's see how much you are making from this prediction, RemindMe 10 days!". Not everyone daily trades, and even fewer like to share/discuss their personal finances/trading strategies. Furthermore not all good analysis can lead to easily executable short term trading strategies, and even fewer people have the capital and risk tolerance to time the market consistently. Whether a discussion/analysis/prediction is valuable or not should be judged by their own merits and underlying arguments, and any differing opinions should have equal substances as well other than "Hur hur if you were so smart how come you haven't made millions from options". Similarly, a person's credibility should be judged by the historical track records of their analysis/predictions instead of whether they dumped everything into 3/20 TSLA Call Options that one time. This sub is in a state where even if a group of Nobel prize laureates in Economics show ups they would still get bullied with "post your Robinhood screenshot!", and it's honestly both comical and sad at the same time. So in the end, I do not believe that good discussions needs to be backed by personal trades as some form of "proof of confidence", and personally speaking I've made terrible short term trades based on very sound reasons and I've made amazing short term trades based on god awful rationales. I also do not believe this is the sub for day to day trading advices but again, maybe I'm the boring minority and WSB and /r/investing will inevitably converge into the same thing. [link] [comments]  |
| What's up with gold prices today? Posted: 25 Feb 2020 01:30 PM PST Was a bit surprised to see such an intense selloff in gold today, considering the dire warning that the CDC issued. I understand that a part of this can be attributed to people locking in gains but to me, the movement feels highly unnatural and nothing like I've seen before(although I cannot claim to have been trading/investing for a long time). The movement is all janky, with 1% drops over the course of 10 minutes out of nowhere(maybe algorithms are to blame?) . Does anyone remember any situation similar to this in recent history? At risk of sounding like a conspiracy nut, I have a gut feeling that something else may be at play here, especially considering that a significant portion of gold is owned by banks/institutions. However, I am still very much lacking experience in the markets so I could be completely wrong. If anyone could share their thoughts on this I would appreciate it. [link] [comments]  |
| China stocks rise as Beijing says work resumption is speeding up Posted: 25 Feb 2020 04:33 PM PST https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/asia-markets-coronavirus-oil-currencies-in-focus.html Mainland Chinese stocks rose on the day while shares in South Korea led losses among major regional markets. Investors continued to watch for developments on the ongoing coronavirus (also known as COVID-19) outbreak, with the World Health Organization's Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus telling reporters on Thursday that the low number of cases outside of China "may not stay the same for long." A spokesperson from China's Ministry of Commerce said Friday at a press conference that the resumption of work has been rapidly increasing in major foreign trade provinces such as Guangdong and Jiangsu. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 26 Feb 2020 01:09 AM PST Hello there, Does anyone know a sustainanable ETF for Africa? (Keywords: Screened, SUS, ESG) I invested in some similiar ones for Europe and "Emerging Markets" (which includs parts of africa), so I was wondering if something specifically for Africa exists. I believe Africa will be developing rapidly in the next decades (long-term investment), but I just do not like the idea of supporting weapon production (esp. nuclear weapons), the coal industty or the tobacco industry, especially in such a troubled continent. [link] [comments]  |
| How do you track your portfolio? Posted: 25 Feb 2020 11:49 PM PST I would like to see my portfolio performance, but I can't find any good way to do it. My brokerage doesn't show me any graphs like that only a table with the numbers. Is there a application / website where I can introduce what did I buy (time, price,quantity) and then see a graph of the performance, like it was an ETF? [link] [comments]  |
| Salesforce Co-CEO Keith Block steps down; Marc Benioff will be sole CEO Posted: 25 Feb 2020 02:13 PM PST
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| Posted: 25 Feb 2020 09:36 PM PST Can sometime help explain what stock futures mean? Or maybe direct me to what the data on this website means? https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/ Like I understand that the index close is the previous market close. If anyone knows, what does the cur future mean and the fair val close mean? Thanks in advance [link] [comments]  |
| Would you buy more Bitcoin if it was lower volatility? On both the upside and downside. Posted: 25 Feb 2020 09:32 PM PST Many people say they don't buy Bitcoin/crypto because it's "too volatile." What if there was a way to buy lower volatility Bitcoin, which would reduce both the upside and downside movements. Is that something people would be interested in? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 25 Feb 2020 06:54 PM PST GILD was down almost 4% today, testing the previous resistance/current support at $69. Some may say it's priced in, but it's been trending between 62-69 all year round. During the 2015 ebola scare GILD shot up to about $120, and its vaccine was not even working. This time is a different story, however. They used their drug remdesivir on a man from Washington in an emergency situation earlier this year and he showed good signs of improvement. Clinical trial of remdesivir began today, 2/25. Trial per patient will last up to 10 day's total. "Initially, investigators will compare participant outcomes on day 15 in both the remdesivir group and the placebo group to see if the investigational drug increased clinical benefit compared to placebo." https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins People don't understand the advantages that remdesivir has over other its competition. Basically, it decreases the viral load without the drawbacks of facilitated entry into cells using MAB. MRNA was up almost 40% at its peak today because of news stating it would be ready for human trials in April. GILD's remdesivir could be a treatment before then. China will announce the results of their remdesivir trials on April 27th, but information probably be leaked by then. Occasionally these trials get stopped early. There are two reasons - 1. the drug is clearly worse than the controls or 2. its clearly better than the control and its unethical for the controls not to get the drug. My position: 4/17 - $85c [link] [comments]  |
| Who has been buying so far in this slight pull back? Posted: 25 Feb 2020 08:17 PM PST Curious to see how people portfolios are weathering. Has anyone decided to start loading up their portfolio or waiting for the markets to fall further? [link] [comments]  |
| Stocks that went up or stayed the same during the 2008 recession? Posted: 25 Feb 2020 06:46 PM PST |
| Is it sensible to buy IUAG aggregate bond ETF? Posted: 25 Feb 2020 11:39 PM PST If later I want to get a bit more speculative I might be able to sell this ETF at approximately the same price as I bought it, and buy more stocks IF the market indeed gets in a recession/crash. I currently hold only dividend paying blue chip stocks (80%) and REITs (20%) . I think it would be sensible to buy and hold at least 25% of my portfolio in investment grade USA corporate bonds ( as a safe haven). My broker only has IUAG (as a bond ETF) https://www.ishares.com/ch/individual/en/products/251750/ishares-us-aggregate-bond-ucits-etf What is your opinion about this ETF? My theory is, that it should keep it's price/value, give enough payout/dividend to keep up with the USD inflation, and I could even keep my money in USD, which historically was more stable and getting stronger compared to my local currency (RON). With my broker I don't have currency exchange costs. If later I want to get a bit more speculative I might be able to sell this ETF at aproximately the same price as I bought it, and buy more stocks IF the market indeed gets in a recession/crash. [link] [comments]  |
| Thoughts on my Roth portfolio? Posted: 25 Feb 2020 11:29 PM PST Hi all, My Roth A/c (Guideline) which is with my employer has the following distribution:86% Stocks, 14% Bonds The detailed distribution is:
Questions:
Response appreciated! [link] [comments]  |
| A Guided Meditation for When the Stock Market Is Dropping Posted: 25 Feb 2020 06:18 PM PST https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOGU94eL07E Breath deep, relax, focus and remember your plan [link] [comments]  |
| Mkt might not be going down because of why you think it is going down Posted: 25 Feb 2020 02:54 PM PST TLDR: so for now i will try a long in Asian session. and would short into strength in EU/US Sessions as long as Fed doesn't change it's mind. I'd like to share some thoughts to help me straighten my thoughts because this is an extremely difficult juncture. I'll try to be very concise. Narrative is focused 100% on a few hundred cases in some in and around Italy, for most traders that is the beginning but in the context of the broader implications of COVID19, if it was gonna kill US mkts it would have done so when Wuhan quarantined 11m productive consumers and locked supply chain for an unforeseen amount of time. Even the DAX which is extremely exposed to Wuhan was at an ATH of 13800. instead we had a quick V shaped dip in the US and even FXI / KWEB recovered (not without the national team but that's another story) My explanation as to what was happening was that as long as bonds kept rallying so much (TLT) it was fine to keep the equity as the central bankers had our back and there's nothing that the nasdaq loves more than lower real rates ($TIP & $GLD) Suddenly the actual fed chair, Richard Clarida gave an interview to S.Liesmann where he essentially told the mkt to back off cuz it ain't happening 📷 he's also sending his homies to relay the same message, ie just now : 📷 And see that's a huge problem because even if you take the Nasdaq which is the best index in the world as far as fundamentals go the valuation doesn't make sense historically unless u consider < 0 real rate that we were pricing in. if the guy doesn't cut to where we expect him to cut (2 cuts) then the real rate is around 50bps and we've never had Spooz trading at 19x NTM PE with 50bps real rate and gold at 1700 suddenly makes no sense at all. So my thinking is that this dude spoiled the one thing which made the mkt not fall on a number of bearish items :
And now it suddenly all came to the forefront, crystallized in this italian pasta flu bullshit. So now what's next, i think we can have a V shaped recovery because Chinamen have done an outstanding work containing the disease and getting back to work asap + they have spared no effort in liquidity and fiscal measures to help, unlike the fed here. At worst this becomes a more dangerous type of seasonal flu and we get on on our lives. Nasdaq earnings for one are extremely good but if the FED doesn't want to help But it won't happen if the fed keeps pushing back against what is priced in the mkt (>2 cuts by year end) so yeah, i have so many reasons to buy the nasdaq here but i think it makes sense to stay prudent because unless Clarida concedes very soon, it will soon mean that the 2yr rate will have to get back to >1.5 and it is simply impossible for equities to rally in front of that. Also you cannot trade here without differentiating btwn timezones: One thing that is certain is that Europeans came on board on the FED argument, that's why the selling has been so harsh during EZ timezones, in fact all of yesterday's loss came from them. US Simply managed to keep it flat and only sold today. Asian seems to be the only timezone where you can express some bullishness and i will be trying to that however there is one issue which is extremely problematic for the Nikkei (and can pull down all indexes with it) and that's the Tokyo Olympics, let's just say that a lot of hope rests on it in Japan and tonight's session will depend on how they interpret this news item TLDR: so for now i will try a long in Asian session. and would short into strength in EU/US Sessions as long as Fed doesn't change it's mind. EDIT : Nikkei 225 hit my 1% gain take profit before the open. didn't expect it but it might even be better. i really don't want to be around when they read about Dick Pound in the shimbun still in the nasdaq. [link] [comments]  |
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