• Breaking News

    Saturday, November 9, 2019

    Stocks - Ex Uber CEO Travis Kalanick sells 20% of his shares in three days after lockup

    Stocks - Ex Uber CEO Travis Kalanick sells 20% of his shares in three days after lockup


    Ex Uber CEO Travis Kalanick sells 20% of his shares in three days after lockup

    Posted: 08 Nov 2019 10:54 PM PST

    Would appear an absolutely enormous amount of selling the last three days came from Kalanick. He sold over 20 million of his 97 million shares. He still sits on Uber board.

    https://fintel.io/n/us/uber/kalanick-travis-cordell

    Edit: on Wednesday he sold over 10 million. Thursday was 7 million. Yesterday he only sold over 2 million. Judging on that it looks like he is done for now or has sold the bulk of what he wished. Sell events like the one we just witnessed with Uber usually last three days similar to when a company has a really bad piece of news. Will be interesting to see if any other insiders sold as so far it is just him and a small player selling 15k shares. I don't believe institutions have to report their sales as quickly as individuals though so it may be some time before we find out who else sold what.

    submitted by /u/professordurian
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    Some interesting news in the stock market this week

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 04:21 AM PST

    Lots more news this week with earnings season still in full swing as well as a few other controversial developments. As usual I am going to start with the large caps before moving on to smaller companies and have tried to categorize them as much as possible for those who prefer to dip in and out.

    The week kicked off on Monday with the rebranding of Facebook as FACEBOOK which was seen by some as an attempt to distinguish the app from the company and by others (of a more cynical nature) as an attempt to deflect attention during a time of regulatory scrutiny. However, if that was the case, Facebook need not have bothered as plenty of distraction was caused by the termination of McDonald's CEO position for a romantic encounter with a subordinate and the announcement by Under Armour that their accounting practices were under investigation by the Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    Elsewhere, Xerox launched a bold bid to acquire HP Inc, a company three times its size, for $22 (a premium of 37% above where the stock traded a month ago) split 77% cash and 23% stock in a transaction that would still leave HPQ shareholders in control of 48% of the company. Xerox has identified potential synergies totalling $2 billion, a meaningful amount for a group with a combined market capitalisation of $36.3 billion. However, synergies often fail to materialise and with both entities facing secular decline it seems like a mistake, to put it mildly, to propose a $28 billion cash payment that will be funded primarily by debt.

    On Monday Ferrari saw its stock jump 6% after reporting a strong beat and raise along with announcing a planned collaboration with Armani. It is an attempt to transform Ferrari into a fully fledged luxury brand and away from the sun glasses and polo tops that are currently diluting its top end aspirations. Easier said than done. The stock later gave back most of Monday's gains but finished the week still trading on an earnings multiple of 37. That's a big premium for an auto company even if consensus forecasts point to 15% annual growth.

    Square jumped 5% on Thursday after reporting strong Q3 sales growth of 43% and a 42% increase in gross profits. The stock is still down 35% from its 2018 peak due to concerns about a lack of profitability and increasing competition. Nevertheless investors were cheered by Wednesday's print.

    Square's stock had dropped in August after guidance for adjusted revenue fell short of analyst expectations of $599 million. Q3's result did beat those with adjusted revenue of $602 million and shows that Square continues to grow revenue at an impressive rate in a total addressable market that is estimated (in the US alone) at almost 30x current GPV/revenues. Additionally Square has yet to enter significant markets abroad. There are over 125 million businesses around the world that can potentially use Square's services, so the company's growth has the potential to accelerate once it targets international expansion. The current valuation of $26 billion looks reasonable at 6.5x sales.

    Growth stocks (Everbridge, Everquote, RealReal, and Chegg)

    There were a number of high quality growth stocks reporting this week. They didn't disappoint with rapid revenue growth in huge target markets. However profitability was generally notable by its absence and valuations were sky high. Unfortunately, that is the price you have to pay today to own these disruptor stocks.

    First up, Everbridge reported a beat on Monday with revenue growth of 35%, a sharp drop in losses and was named "Growth Company of the Year" by Massachusetts Technology Leadership Council.

    The company is the go to provider of critical event management (i.e. how organisations respond to events such as terrorist attacks, shooters or extreme weather) with global reach and includes most of the world's largest companies and organizations as customers. That in itself, along with 150+ patents, is a competitive advantage. Growth has been strong and retention rates excellent at 110%. Significantly customers have demonstrated a reluctance to change provider once on boarded.

    Everbridge's valuation is high (very high), at $3 billion it is about 15x current year estimated sales. However, compared to its TAM of $40 billion it looks justifiable. Additionally, with three quarters of revenues from the US, there is the real opportunity for international growth. Specifically, the EU has mandated that all member states must have alerting services in place over the next few years. Deployment across the 27 members expected over the next 18 months.

    On Tuesday Everquote, an insurance comparison website, shot up 30% after reporting a 61% year on year revenue increase and 81% yoy increase in quote requests. Everquote is priced on a more reasonable price to sales ratio of 4x current year estimates. That's probably due to the company facing numerous competitors from other comparison websites. Nevertheless with a market capitalization of $12 billion compared to an estimated TAM of $120 billion there is still plenty of room for growth and the company's offering is clearly resonating with customers. Additionally the company reported strong growth in property and health insurance which offers a profitable add-on service for Everquote as well as diversification from its current concentration in auto insurance.

    The RealReal (the leading online marketplace for designer clothing, fine jewellery, watches, fine art and home decor) reported strong results on Monday with sales up 55% but the stock price was hit by a CNBC report on negative customer reviews and counterfeit merchandise. It ended the week down 25% with a market capitalization of $1.3 billion.

    That valuation (4x sales) looks cheap compared to growth and outlook. RealReal offers a marketplace for luxury items that has resonated with younger customers who see the value opportunity of owning luxury goods for just a short time while also appreciating the ethical aspects of recycling.

    The company has responded to claims of fake merchandise quickly. Its processes are industry leading and, at the end of the day, it offers a guarantee for authenticity so customers should be reassured. Consequently I would expect this scandal to pass quickly and the strong tail winds that are driving this industry will push the stock significantly higher.

    The risk is that the company has been seriously negligent on authentication in its rush for growth and that there is a wave of bad news waiting to come out. If that is the case, then its reputation is ruined. However the bottom line for me is that the total addressable market for luxury goods in the US is massive at $198 billion. That means the risk return still looks favourable with RealReal in the early stages of growth. The potential downside is (as always) 100% but that compares to huge potential upside given the current gross merchandise volume of just $1 billion.

    Chegg (online textbook and tutoring services) also reported strong results with revenues up 28% and raised guidance. Over the past 30 years, textbook prices have increased 812% and in the same time, the average tuition fee has increased 559%. In an attempt to help students cope with this financial burden, Chegg offers the rental of both physical and digital textbooks. The stock jumped 14% in response to the print and now trades on a PE of 42x and PS 10x. That is another pricey multiple but Chegg still looks interesting because;

    1. Fat gross profit margins

    2. Moat provided by huge supply of over 25 million answered questions and 5million textbooks. This massive supply of premium content is hard to replicate for most entrants.

    3. Huge potential for growth with business so far catering for just 2.2 million out of a total of 36 million students

    4. Highly scalable business with profits expected to rise exponentially as sales increase

    Value stocks (Air Lease and WW International)

    Air Lease (aircraft leasing) reported Q3 earnings on Wednesday with revenues up 19.4% and earnings up 9.2%. The company said that despite meaningful delays from both Boeing and Airbus the company plans a 25% year-over-year fleet value expansion and strong growth is expected to continue with 316 aircraft on the order books. Additionally, it was able to report that all aircraft previously leased to (now defunct) Thomas Cook have been profitably placed with new airline customers.

    Like most aircraft leasing companies, Air Lease trades on a very attractive trailing PE of 9.3 despite strong historic and forecast growth. However what sets Air Lease apart from the others is its CEO, Steven Udvar-Hazy, a pioneer in airline leasing with over 40 years of experience. In 1973, he co-founded the aircraft leasing business International Lease Finance Corporation (now AerCap) and led ILFC as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer until his departure in 2010 to launch Air Lease.

    Air Lease has grown steadily over the past 10 years and tailwinds from rising global incomes and demand for more efficient aircraft are boosting strong order books. Air Lease wil probably never trade on a big premium but with historic and forecast CAGR of 17% it can still provide a good return for investors.

    WW International (Weight Watchers) dropped 20% on Wednesday after reporting revenue of $348.6 million for the quarter, down from $365.8 million last year and missing guidance for $353.0 million. However WW is expecting a few things to help drive revenue in the coming months and raised full year guidance. Product sales that have been down for the year are expected to turn positive in the fourth quarter due to new merchandise and "improving studio attendance trends," according to the CFO.

    More importantly it was reported that Oprah will be doing huge tour for Weight Watchers next year where she will tour the country to discuss her health journey and dialogue with experts on how to live healthier lifestyles. Oprah hasn't been on a tour like this since 2014 and the surrounding fanfare is expected to bring an influx of new subscribers. Trailing PE 15.23.

    Insider (Zovio and Assured Guarantee Ltd)

    There was insider buying at Zovio (online education) on Tuesday, by Chief Executive Officer Andrew S. Clark who purchased 150,000 shares for a cost of $2.58 each, for a total investment of $386,505. Zovio has fallen back to $2.30 since then but is up 44% since reporting Q3 results on October 31.

    On that call the education technology services company (and owner of online Ashford University) outlined a restructuring plan to drive cost savings totalling $51 million in 2020 and drive the company back to profitability with guidance for adjusted EPS of $0.50 to$0.90. If successfull the current stock price of $2.29 would be a bargain. The CEO's purchase is an encouraging endorsement.

    Insider buying at Assured Guarantee Ltd as Chief Investment Officer, Andrew Feldstein, makes a $1.17 million purchase on Wednesday. It is actually his 13th purchase in the last six weeks.

    The company is a monoline guarantor that insures municipal and structured debt issuance. It ran into trouble during the great recession but has staged something of a recovery and Mr Feldstein seems to be highly confident in its future.

    Two points of interest that caught my eye;

    1. The company estimates it's non GAAP adjusted book value at $90.18 compared to Fridays close at $48.23 (GAAP valuation of $68.94 also compares well)

    2. The company CEO said on the Q2 earnings call that he believed the firm had $3.2 billion of excess capital beyond what was required to maintain its AAA rating. A meaningful amount for a company with a market capitalization of $4.8 billion.

    Please feel free to "FOLLOW" me if you would like to see my regular updates during the week.

    This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Stocks are risky and not suitable for everybody. Please do your own research.

    submitted by /u/InterestingNews1
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    Why are there volume spikes at consistently strange hours? (3:55pm, 6:30pm etc)

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 07:51 AM PST

    https://imgur.com/gallery/d1OUQSM

    5 minute chart for Boeing (BA). Why are there volume spikes at these strange times?

    BA - 5 minute chart volume spikes

    10/31 - 4:55pm ...
    11/01 - 4:55pm ...
    11/04 - 3:55pm ...
    11/05 - 3:55pm ...
    11/06 - 3:55pm ...

    On many stocks, a large volume spike on 5 minute charts are very reliable indicators of upcoming uptrends (or downtrends).

    But why do they happen at these consistently strange hours?

    Why does this happen? It has to be institutional buying right?

    More: FCX - 5 minute chart volume spikes

    10/31 - 7:30pm...
    11/01 - 4:55pm...
    11/04 - 3:55pm...
    11/05 - 3:55pm ...
    11/06 - 6:30pm ...

    CTL- 5 minute chart volume spikes

    10/31 - 7:30pm ...
    11/01 - No significant volume spike ...
    11/04 - 6:30pm ...
    11/05 - 6:30pm ...
    11/06 - 6:30pm...

    AAPL - 5 minute chart volume spikes

    10/31 - 4:55pm ...
    11/01 - 4:55pm ...
    11/04 - 3:55pm ...
    11/05 - 3:55pm ...
    11/06 - 3:55pm ...

    There are many many more of course.

    On these stocks if there is a GREEN SPIKE and you buy at open and sell at 9:34 it is up most of the time..

    Am I missing something glaringly obvious here?

    Another question: As I understand it the volume spikes are green or red depending on whether selling was higher or lower but not by how much. For example if it was 51% selling and 49% buying the bar would still be red. Is there anywhere you can see exactly how much was selling and how much was buying?

    UPDATE: for Boeing and Apple it could maybe be explained by MOC and daylight savings (changes from 4:55 to 3:55 11/04). Don't know about the other ones.

    CTL is especially strange...

    submitted by /u/TraderTrader12345
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    Do institutions have to report 'insider sales' on their holdings the same way a person does within 2 business days?

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 01:46 PM PST

    I know executives have to report insider sales within 48 hours to the SEC. Is it the same for institutions or are they given some freedom to build and shrink their positions without alerting the public?

    submitted by /u/professordurian
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    Which do you like best for the ever-growing and ever-needed electronic payment industry?

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 01:25 PM PST

    Out of $PYPL, $MA, $V, $AXP, or $SQ?

    Paypal and Square seem to have the money transfer and early business covered while MA, AXP, and V all seem to compete for the business and consumer spending markets.

    submitted by /u/SpontaneousIrony
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    Who’s buying prty

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 07:39 AM PST

    Is prty worth jumping into after that 70% drop?

    submitted by /u/Tas1498
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    I’m having an online competition with my classmates which involves buying stocks and our starting amount is $100,000. Do you guys have any advice on what kind of companies to buy shares in?

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 01:45 PM PST

    I know it's a just an online game but I'd appreciate any help.

    submitted by /u/lilfrosty808
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    Please help me understand. (Price discrepancies on 1 minute charts vs 5 minute charts)

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 01:36 PM PST

    According to 1 minute charts the price of FCX at the end of 9:35am on 11/04 was $10.79

    https://imgur.com/gallery/wBOhEJ2

    According to the 5 minute chart the price at the end of 9:35am on 11/04 was $10.69.

    https://imgur.com/gallery/EpqyXlF

    Which is right?

    submitted by /u/TraderTrader12345
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    CBS will soon do a merger wit Viacom. Are they under valued going into the earnings?

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 12:34 PM PST

    https://i.imgur.com/IpA3MTT.png

    $NFLX: 291.57

    $Dis:137.96

    $CBS: $38.11 https://www.earningswhispers.com/stocks/cbs

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/14/cbs-reaches-its-8-million-streaming-subscribers-goal-two-years-early.html

    https://reelgood.com/tv/source/cbs_all_access

    https://www.tvguide.com/streaming/gallery/cbs-all-access-streaming-25-hidden-treasures/

    CBS is merging with the following IP.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Viacom

    Nobody is going to want to pay for 10 different subs.

    You could get Disney+ for Disney & sports. CBS for Nick cartoons,more sports, and more adult content such as MTV.

    Netflix is about to become potentially VERY clunky when they're hemorrhaging Sub with the possible inclusion of technology such as finger print scanners.

    https://old.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/dtq9i1/netflix_cofounder_on_a_potential_password_sharing/

    https://old.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/dtq9i1/netflix_cofounder_on_a_potential_password_sharing/f6z348s/

    Likely very soon.

    The Coalition ('Alliance for Creativity and Entertainment' tasked with creating efforts to stop his was created in 2017 and have already been stepping up efforts to crack down. Netflix CPO Greg Peters said just last month they are looking at methods to crack down too.

    Furthermore, research firms says the projected loss from password sharing is going to increase from $6.6Bn to $9Bn by 2024. That is a large increase and one they probably don't want to see happen.

    Meaning they probably want something done sooner than later. Meaning we'll probably see what kind of (major) efforts Netflix will take within 2~ years. Meanwhile, there will probably be restriction creep.

    submitted by /u/The_toast_of_Reddit
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    $UTX or $LHX

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 12:30 PM PST

    Hey all,

    My title says my question.

    I have no positions in defense nor gov't contractors and want to expose my portfolio to defense and aerospace.

    I like UTX because of their diversification as far as contracts go, subcontracting with companies like LMT and BA. I also like them for their planned merger with RTN.

    I also like LHX for their products, they target the backbone rather than the more competitive warheads and weapons systems.

    I am investing purely for growth in 5+ yrs.

    submitted by /u/SpontaneousIrony
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    Anyone buying PG&E?

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 12:27 PM PST

    It is cheap right now. If they could weather the lawsuits and not go bankrupt(oh wait, they are in bankruptcy). Anyhow, if they can survive, stock price should go up over time.

    submitted by /u/Tenesmus83
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    Buying the bottom

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 10:55 AM PST

    I've had some issues "buying the bottom" or the support when I trade. Specifically when I day trade, when I swing im not too worried about a price drop but when i day trade things are faster pace and I dont usually want to hold whatever stock I'm scalping. Either way I do my DD, draw my trends and horizontal lines, check rsi over sold, check macd seems bottomed out... so I pull the trigger and buy in, and boom the stock then goes straight through what I thought was a support and is freefalling and now I'm stuck trying to average down until I give up on the trade and take the loss... how can I prevent this from happening, how can I make sure that the "support" that I think that I'm buying isnt going to give up and lose my trade?

    submitted by /u/itsfredagain
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    Long term investments

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 10:17 AM PST

    What would be the best stock to hold on for for a long time. Looking to invest

    submitted by /u/justatypicalyute
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    Need help

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 09:42 AM PST

    So I'm doing something with stocks in school. Do you guys have an idea for stocks that will go up a lot this next month? I have a fake $100,000 to spend and already have some stocks bought.

    submitted by /u/LightningLion48
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    Should I invest in carvana?

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 08:08 AM PST

    There currently at 2 shares for £121 I'm not sure whether this is gonna decline would this be a good first investment if I ride it out for 2-3 years or should I invest in Microsoft?

    submitted by /u/justatypicalyute
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    Is $SHAK a buy following this sell off ?

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 05:13 AM PST

    Been wanting to add a fast food name to my portfolio, I certainly think Shake Shack has more room to grow than Mcdonalds or Wendy's -

    As a growth stock, is this a good time to buy ?!

    submitted by /u/becuziwasinverted
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    Best website for statements, data and insights?

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 05:01 AM PST

    What is the best FREE website that provides the most possible information about a company, including earnings, debt, assets and liabilities etc...? And if possible, to be easy to use and navigate and not too complicated.

    submitted by /u/YT_AMINCR7GAMER
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    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning November 11th, 2019

    Posted: 09 Nov 2019 04:22 AM PST

    Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning November 11th, 2019.

    The market rally will soon be tested by a big Trump speech and testimony from the Fed chief - (Source)


    Progress in trade talks and a steady, but accomodative Fed policy have eased the way for the stock market's rally to new highs, and both will be in the forefront when President Donald Trump and Jerome Powell speak at separate events in the week ahead.


    Against a backdrop of a stabilizing global economy, stocks have hit new highs and bond yields have pushed higher, particularly in the past week with a 23 basis point surge in the 10-year Treasury yield. Yields move opposite price, and the 10-year rose to end the week at 1.94%, its highest closing level since Aug. 1, the day Trump threatened another round of tariffs on China.


    Trump speaks to the Economic Club of New York during a Tuesday luncheon, and investors are hoping for clarity on a possible trade deal. The Fed chairman speaks Wednesday to the Congressional Joint Economic Committee, and he also appears before the House Budget Committee Thursday.


    There are a few key economic reports, including CPI on Wednesday and retail sales and industrial production on Friday. Empire State manufacturing survey Friday could provide a fresh look at the manufacturing sector in the New York region. Just a few major earnings are expected in the week ahead, including Cisco Wednesday and Walmart and NVIDIA on Thursday.


    But trade is likely to remain the more important wild card for markets, as the calendar edges closer to Dec. 15, the date new tariffs on consumer goods from China would go into effect if there is no deal. The House of Representatives also hold impeachment hearings before the public for the first time in the coming week, but the markets have so far ignored the topic and see it unlikely that the Senate would convict the president.


    Stock records

    Stocks continued to rally to new highs this past week, and the major indices all ended the week at record levels, as bonds sold off hard. Stock market gains were limited part of the session Friday after Trump said that he has not agreed to the tariff rollbacks sought by China.


    The S&P 500 was higher for a fifth week, up 0.9%, and is now up about 1.8% for November so far. The S&P closed at 3,093 Friday.


    "President Trump is always unpredictable, so we'll have to see what he says," said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA.


    Keon expects a trade agreement of some sort in the near future, and that should help risk markets to advance.


    "The way we've been interpreting this is it probably amounts to a truce. The United States has been using this rhetoric that it's a phase one deal. China has not embraced the same rhetoric. So I don't know if we'll get major progress on the thornier issues in the first deal," Keon said. "The other question is how hard does the president push in an election year to make further progress in the negotiations, given that China might dig in its heels? That's unknowable. I have no insight into what the president is going to do."


    Cowen policy strategist Chris Krueger said Trump's address Tuesday could be important for the direction of a deal. "In our minds, the most critical sections will deal with trade and whether Trump is favoring the "phase one" deal with China and a scheduled rollback of the tariffs. This could well be a trial balloon to gauge the ferocity of expected pushback from influential China hawks. Trump will give remarks and then take questions from two moderators," wrote Krueger.


    Powell's testimony is not expected to have as much potential to rock markets, after the clear message he sent to markets following the Fed's rate cut Oct. 30.


    "I would expect the chairman to continue the rhetoric he had at his last press conference. They're probably on hold. It will depend on the data. If anything the data looks a little more promising on the margin. Certainly the consumer and service sector appear to be doing fine and with the GM strike ending, some of the things impacted by that should improve," said Keon. "They think rates are appropriate for now, and if the economy weakens, they'll be prepared to take further action."


    The health of the global economy has been a topic of concern in markets for months, but with the global rise in yields and signs of improvement in global PMI data, investors have clearly become more optimistic.


    "I've been kind of skeptical most of the year, but I do think at the margin, the economic outlook has improved, especially outside the United States," said Keon. "The recession talk that was pretty active just a month or two ago has really died down. The yield curve is dramatically uninverted. I feel a little better about the economic outlook."


    When the yield curve becomes inverted, short term rates, like the 2-year note yield for instance, rise above the long end, or the 10-year yield. That is very often a recession warning, as investors bet that the economy will be weaker in the longer term than it is in the near term. But there's been a sudden shift, and now those curves are getting steeper.


    Keon said the higher yields are a positive sign, and he is adding to stock holdings, but more in foreign names. "The sense Europe was heading into a recession has died off, and there are signs things are stabilizing," he said. "This could all change in a minute but it looks like the overall outlook has significantly picked up in the last month or two."


    Dan Suzuki, portfolio strategist at Richard Bernstein Advisors, said he is still cautious about the improvement, though earnings were not as bad as expected, the Fed has cut rates and the trade situation appears to be improving. "That combined with green shoots on the macro front, the markets have really taken that and run with it," he said, adding the move may have been too optimistic. "It's out-sized relative to the significance of the data."


    Suzuki said he needs to see more proof that U.S. manufacturing has stabilized, as many believe. ISM manufacturing was better in October than in September, but it is still in contraction. "Why is this definitely the bottom? The jury's still out," he said.


    "I think you have to answer the question—if this is the bottom and growth is going to rebound here, what's going to be the catalyst for that?...I don't see anything in the data that suggests there's going to be a big rebound for any of those fronts. I see more headwinds to growth than I see tail winds," he said. "On the investment side, it would be highly unusual to see a big rebo


    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #4!)

    November Expiration Week: S&P 500 & DJIA Best

    DJIA has been up 10 of the last 15 years on Monday of expiration week and Friday is up 13 of the last 17 years with an average gain of 0.45%. By the way, it is not a mistake that November Op-Ex day has the same point change and percent change in 2014 and 2015. It was triple checked and its correct. If you go out 2 more decimal places in the percentage calculation, it's different.

    S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have not been as bullish as DJIA around or on November option expiration. S&P 500 has advanced only 16 times during options expiration week while NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have climbed only 15 and 14 times respectively over the past 25 years. All four indices have posted average losses on Monday and aside from DJIA and S&P 500 have been essentially mixed on options expiration day. Friday's solid average gains across the board are largely due to a sizable gain in 2008. Any weakness next week could be a good entry point for new longs ahead of the usually bullish Thanksgiving holiday.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P 500 Price vs 50-DMA

    The S&P 500 has been on a seemingly uninterrupted run higher over the last several days, but by some measures, it may not be as extended as you would think. The chart below shows the historical percentage spread between the S&P 500 and its 50-day moving average (DMA) over the last three years. Through Thursday's close, the S&P 500 was 3.2% above its 50-DMA, which is relatively high but nowhere near an extreme. The red line in the chart below shows the current percentage spread between the S&P 500's price and its 50-DMA. There have been a number of times since the 2016 election where this spread was higher with the most recent being back in July. In fact, 17% of all prior days in the last three years have seen the S&P 500 close at a higher level relative to its 50-DMA than it is now. That doesn't mean the market isn't overbought, but it's not exactly at unprecedented levels either.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Leaders and Laggards Since FOMC

    We've now had nearly a full week of trading since last Wednesday's FOMC meeting where Fed Chair Powell suggested that the punch bowl isn't going to be taken away anytime soon. During that time, we've seen a real shift in leadership as defensive sectors have sold off while cyclical sectors have been on fire. Energy - yes, Energy - has been the top-performing sector with a gain of 3.5% while Industrials aren't far behind with a gain of 2.8%, Behind these two, Technology and Financials have also comfortably outperformed the S&P 500's gain of 1.2%. On the downside, Real Estate and Utilities, two of the market's most popular sectors for much of 2019 due to their dividend yields, have both dropped over 1% while Consumer Staples and Health Care have also sold off.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Due to the fact that we are also in the thick of earnings season, it's a bit more difficult to see how the Fed's actions last week impacted individual stocks as some of the best and worst performances over the last week have been earnings-related. With that caveat, the tables below list the best and worst-performing S&P 500 stocks over the last week. Starting off with the winners, three S&P 500 stocks are up over 20% in the last week, and all three were due to earnings reports. Overall, 12 stocks have rallied over 10%, while all 25 of the top performers are up over 7%. In terms of sector representation on the list, nearly a third (8) of the stocks on the list are from the Technology sector, while another five come from the Consumer Discretionary sector. The remaining 12 stocks on the list come from five different sectors.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    On the downside, 8 of the 25 worst performers since last week's FOMC meeting are down over 10% with Arista Networks (ANET) losing nearly a quarter of its value. Again, ANET's decline was tied to an earnings report as opposed to a reaction to the FOMC. In terms of overall sector representation, though, the underperformance of the Real Estate sector highlighted above is also evident on this list as eight of the companies listed come from that sector.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The Few, the Lowly, the Laggards

    With less than two months left to go in 2019, the S&P 500 is sitting on a gain of nearly 23% YTD, and all but two of the index's 24 industry groups are up by at least double-digit percentages. The two laggards are Energy (+4.5%) and Drugs and Biotechs (+5.5%), while the three strongest groups are all from the Technology sector (Tech Hardware: +44.8%, Semis: +37.7%, and Software: +32.8%). Surprisingly enough, Banks are even starting to move up the performance list as that group is up just a hair under 30% on the year putting it in fifth place on a YTD basis.

    The table below lists where each of the S&P 500's Industry Groups is currently trading with respect to its 50-DMA. While you would expect just about everything to be extended after the recent leg higher, that's not the case. The S&P 500 as a whole is just 3% above its 50-DMA, and just five groups are more than 5% above their 50-DMAs. The two most extended groups are Tech Hardware (think Apple) and Banks. On the downside, there are actually as many Industry Groups trading below their 50-DMAs as there are groups trading more than 5% above their 50-DMAs. As shown at the bottom of the table, Consumer Services, Real Estate, Household & Personal Products, Commercial Services, and Utilities are all currently below their 50-DMAs. These aren't groups that have been lagging the market all year. In fact, three of them are outperforming the S&P 500 on a year to date basis, but in the majority of cases, these are defensive-oriented groups that have fallen out of favor as the market's sentiment has shifted and rates have risen.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Seasonally Strong Period, But…

    As I head to Las Vegas for my annual pilgrimage to @MoneyShows TradersEXPO I am both thrilled and shocked to hear everybody on Wall Street and the financial media talking about bullish yearend market seasonality and practically every one of them has used the phrase, "seasonally strong period."

    I'm thrilled because it validates what we already know and what I live and breathe: that there are clear evidence-based results of real, consistent, tradable and investable seasonal market patterns. I am shocked at how late many of them are to the party. We've been in bullish Best Six Months mode since our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 11.

    Since our October 11 Buy Signal we have tactically maneuvered out of our defensive positions in Bonds, Cyclicals, Utilities and others and into the main U.S. equity index ETFs: DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM and the gamut of seasonally strong growth sectors over three weeks ago. We also put out a brand new Stock Basket of undervalued growth stocks under Wall Street's radar.

    Market seasonality is clearly firing on all pistons as it has been all year, but everyone's is jumping on the seasonal bandwagon just a two regular seasonal soft patches are about to come around on the calendar. Now that our Bullish Halloween Trading Strategy is complete with some big market gains at the end of October and the beginning of November we are on the lookout for weakness ahead of Thanksgiving.

    Next week is two weeks before Thanksgiving and we've shown in several recent posts, it is part of the mid-November soft patch. Then stocks usually pick up in anticipation of Thanksgiving and continue to rally through the end of November. After thanksgiving watch out, the first couple weeks of December are notoriously choppy and not especially bullish as tax-loss selling kicks into high gear.

    With the market elevated and the news ever changing, stocks will be vulnerable to these perennial weak spots.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Presidential Cycle Stars Align for Stocks in 2020

    Despite all of the geopolitical events, things still look good for stocks next year with an incumbent running. The potential for a decent trade truce with China, along with an economy that's still growing and accommodative interest rates add up to a continuation of the bull market.

    With the Stock Trader's Almanac 2020 coming off the press this week here's a little preview of some our analysis and outlook that's in the 53rd Annual Edition.

    Presidential incumbency is a powerful phenomenon and the driving force behind the 4-Year Presidential Election Cycle. This quadrennial quadrille is what has made the Pre-Election Year the best year of the cycle and Election Year second best. Since 1952 S&P 500 is up 12.5% on average in election years when a sitting president is running for reelection vs. 6.7% in all election years and –1.5% in election years with an open field and no incumbent commander-in-chief running for a second term.

    We are also arguably now experiencing some fiscal and monetary policy synchronicity. After several years of conflicting policy the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Federal government are finally getting in synch. Interest rates are historically low and the Fed has lowered rates again at the last three scheduled FOMC meetings at the same time as fiscal policy has been lowering taxes and increasing spending. These dual pro-growth policies should continue to propel the stock market higher.

    Gains will of course not come without pause and correction. The world stage will continue to feature some challenging geopolitical, political, diplomatic, trade-related and economic storylines. U.S. presidential campaign politics will increasingly focus on domestic political disputes, standoffs and unfinished business – as well as impeachment proceedings. But when all is said and done, we expect 2020 to be a positive year based on the historical patterns and cycles and current favorable policies, healthy economics, and positive market behavior.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Pre-Election Year Patterns: A November Market Pause

    Now that we've survived Octoberphobia and the market has begun to strengthen again, breaking out above resistance and logging new highs on DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, we are likely to experience a bit of consolidation here in November. Normally the top S&P month of the year and #2 for DJIA, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000, November has been weaker in Pre-Election Years.

    As you can see in the updated chart of Pre-Election Year Seasonal Patterns overlaid with 2019 we have been tracking all year November tends to be flat in the Pre-Election Year with a pop around Thanksgiving. Then after the usual first half of December softness the market tends to push toward additional new highs near yearend. Considering the banner performance so far this year and the uncanny tracking of this historical seasonal pattern, we expect the stock to consolidate over the next few weeks and then resume its march higher.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Bulls Stay in Motion

    "An object in motion tends to remain in motion along a straight line unless acted upon by an outside force." Sir Isaac Newton

    What a year it has been for the bulls. The S&P 500 Index recently made four more new highs, and it's up more than 20% for the year (as of Nov. 4). This leads to the big question: What could happen in the final two months of 2019? Well, we think the bulls might like it.

    "A good year tends to see continued strong performance the final two months of the year," explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "In fact, when the S&P 500 has been up 20% or more for the year heading into the usually bullish November, stocks have never dropped in November, while December also has tended to see a strong upward bias."

    As the LPL Chart of the day shows, going back to 1950, when the S&P 500 was up more than 20% heading into November, then the final two months were up an average of 6.2%. The S&P 500 has also never fallen in the final two months of the year after closing October up more than 20% for the year.

    This phenomenon could be due to portfolio managers buying to play catch-up, or it could be that an object in motion stays in motion, as Newton noted more than 300 years ago.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending November 8th, 2019

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 11.10.19

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)


    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:


    Monday 11.11.19 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Monday 11.11.19 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 11.12.19 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 11.12.19 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 11.13.19 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 11.13.19 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 11.14.19 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 11.14.19 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 11.15.19 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 11.15.19 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    NONE.


    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?


    I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
    [link] [comments]

    SPY VERSUS SPYD

    Posted: 08 Nov 2019 09:42 PM PST

    I was thinking of buying one or the other or maybe a mix of both . I plan on reinvesting dividends received to buy more shares. I'm looking for a long term hold, say about 30 years. Which is better and why.

    Will SPY eventually cap out and stop increasing?

    submitted by /u/Chewwy987
    [link] [comments]

    ORCC.... can someone look at it for me?

    Posted: 08 Nov 2019 09:55 PM PST

    This would be high risk..... but it could be a high quick return. I don't have a lot of evidence for this apart from it being a rapidly rising stock, positive EPS, somewhat good foundation, and some analyst upgrades (these may be a bit old). Also is it just a bad idea to stay away from these brand new stock listings?

    submitted by /u/Toasty_Man00
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