Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- TSLA owes $570,669,500 due tomorrow to SCTY convertible debt holders
- Pinterest stock plunges 18% on revenue miss and disappointing forecast
- SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son draws sparse audience at Saudi Arabia's 'Davos in the desert' after WeWork controversy
- 33% of Apple's Total Gross Margin is from Services. Gross Margin for Services is 64.1%
- A private survey shows China’s manufacturing activity expanded in October, better than expected
- Better-Than-Expected Earnings Ease Growth Fears—for Now (WSJ)
- 50 Boeing 737 NG planes have been grounded after cracks were detected
- Altria writes down Juul investment by $4.5 billion
- Micro 1 sec dip in stock price (wtf is happening here)
- What EFT bonds do you have in your portfolio and why?
- Shiller P/E (CAPE) for ETFs
- Portfolio optimization: Risk parity in the real world
- Apple is up 66% this year and its trailing PE has gone from 12.6 to 20.9. However the smartphone market is maturing, iPhone sales are falling and trade concerns persist
- GreenTech/CleanTech index funds and ESG. Is it all nonsense?
- Looking for online information about investing in real estate in foreign countries
- Jeep, Ram, Citroen, and Peugeot unite to become 4th-largest automaker
- Debt Pairs Trading
- Non-liquid, non-marginal or little-known assets
- Short PTON
- Etoro?
- % of investor shares drop down when he gets his "Money back"
- How do you research?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 31 Oct 2019 05:09 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| TSLA owes $570,669,500 due tomorrow to SCTY convertible debt holders Posted: 31 Oct 2019 12:54 PM PDT I haven't seen this in the news yet but Tesla has to make a large payment tomorrow to bond holders of SolarCity's convertible issue due tomorrow of $570,669,500 ($566M principal + 1.65% / 2 semiannual interest). The payment represents 72% of their $794M working capital reported on their 3Q19 form 10Q a few days ago even after the large debt issuance earlier this year. This probably has minimal coverage because it's listed in current portion of long term debt even though it's coming due tomorrow 11/1/2019. $920M due 3/1/2019 dropped stock 10%, $566M due 11/1/2019... Page 30 discusses Tesla's responsibilities Discussion of possible default from FTConvertible bonds and balance sheets Cash on hand: $5,338M. Current assets: = $10,940M. Current liabilities = $10,146M. Working Capital = $794M Some financing inflows: $7,119M from convertibles and other debt this year in first 3 quarters, additional $848M from stock offerings, $174M from warrants, $153 from accepting investments in subsidiaries. $8,294M listed here. Net CF from financing was $1,608M [link] [comments]  |
| Pinterest stock plunges 18% on revenue miss and disappointing forecast Posted: 31 Oct 2019 01:19 PM PDT https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/31/pinterest-pins-stock-falls-after-third-quarter-sales-miss.html Earnings per share: 1 cent, excluding some items, vs. 4-cent loss forecast by Refinitiv. Revenue: $279.9 million, vs $280.6 million forecast by Refinitiv Monthly active users: 322 million, vs. 322.8 million forecast by FactSet Average revenue per user: 90 cents, vs 91 cents forecast by FactSet [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Oct 2019 05:51 PM PDT Sounds like SoftBank's Vision Funds are on their death bed. I remember the Saudis were big investors in it. Also the vision funds have pumped billions into the tech industry. I think this could potential signal a turning point for tech companies. It will be harder to get funding going forward if big money like the Saudis start to pull out. [link] [comments]  |
| 33% of Apple's Total Gross Margin is from Services. Gross Margin for Services is 64.1% Posted: 31 Oct 2019 05:36 AM PDT Mind boggling. Services is a massive profit generator. With its current grow rate, services will be close to 50% of all gross margin by 2021. Apple just needs to continue to sell high quality services to its 1 BILLION users and they will continue to grow this massive revenue stream. Price target: $300 [link] [comments]  |
| A private survey shows China’s manufacturing activity expanded in October, better than expected Posted: 31 Oct 2019 07:11 PM PDT https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/01/china-economy-caixin-markit-manufacturing-pmi-for-october.html A private survey showed factory activity in China expanded in October with the Caixin/Markit PMI coming in at 51.7. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the PMI number to come in at 51.0 from 51.4 in September. The official PMI survey typically polls a large proportion of big businesses and state-owned enterprises. The Caixin indicator features a bigger mix of small- and medium-sized firms. [link] [comments]  |
| Better-Than-Expected Earnings Ease Growth Fears—for Now (WSJ) Posted: 31 Oct 2019 02:17 PM PDT Although earnings are on track to decline for the third consecutive quarter, about 75% of the 342 companies in the S&P 500 that have posted results through Thursday morning have beaten expectations, according to FactSet. That is slightly above the five-year average of 72%. Dozens of companies report through the end of the week. "Earnings…are truly better than expected," said Peter Vanderlee, a portfolio manager at ClearBridge Investments who helps oversee $22 billion in assets. "As a result, there hasn't been a moment where you would say, 'Look, it is upon us. A recession is nearing.'" Companies including Intel Corp. , Johnson & Johnson and United Technologies Corp. raised their outlooks for the year after posting strong financial results. Intel logged record quarterly revenue, easing concerns about softening demand for its products. Johnson & Johnson said sales of such consumer products as Band-Aid bandages and Tylenol grew, while United Technologies said it expects sales to keep rising. Some investors caution that expectations for 2020 are too high. Earnings are expected to rise 5.7% and 7.1% for the first and second quarters, respectively, FactSet data show, following a roughly flat performance in the last three months of this year. And more companies have been lowering earnings forecasts than raising them. Thirty-nine companies in the S&P 500 have issued negative outlooks, compared with 15 giving positive guidance, according to FactSet. "Essentially all of us came into the earnings season with very low expectations," said Supriya Menon, senior multiasset strategist at Pictet Asset Management. "The problem is that earnings expectations are still too high next year." It isn't unusual for companies to beat earnings expectations because the bar can be low to begin with, as companies manage expectations. The latest results helped push the S&P 500 to a fresh record this week for the first time in three months. The index, which is up 21.5% in 2019, had faced resistance breaking out of a narrow trading range in recent weeks. It has climbed 2.4% in October. Mr. Vanderlee said he has been impressed by results from such big banks as JPMorgan Chase & Co., which posted strong growth and highlighted the strength of the U.S. consumer, a key engine of growth. He said he expects corporate earnings to expand next year. "The fears of a recession have been high for the past six to nine months," said Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. "Earnings have certainly helped put some of that to rest." Also helping ease concerns about the economy, data on Wednesday showed gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 1.9% from July through September, a slowdown from the second quarter but above the expectations of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Investors will get another glimpse of the health of the domestic economy when the monthly jobs report is released Friday. The latest figures showed unemployment hovering at a 50-year low. Still, there are signs that a stronger U.S. dollar, waning economic growth around the world and the U.S.-China trade dispute have been weighing on companies, especially those more reliant on overseas business. For some, the latest earnings season has highlighted the strength of the U.S. economy relative to others around the world, especially with the continuing trade battle between the U.S. and China. Though tensions have eased lately, the countries haven't reached a final pact, and many investors fear that relations could sour in coming months. These concerns came to the forefront Thursday, weighing on U.S. markets in early trading. "The companies that are more domestically focused are doing quite well," said Hans Olsen, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Co., which oversees $7 billion in assets under management. "The ones overseas are really struggling…There's a notable lack of robust growth around the world." Companies in the S&P 500 with relatively high international exposure are poised to underperform those that derive a bigger chunk of revenue domestically. Those that get less than 50% of revenue from the U.S. are on track for an 8.6% earnings decline and a 2.4% fall in revenue, FactSet data show, compared with a more modest 0.3% earnings decline and 4.9% jump in revenue for those that generate more than half of their revenue in the U.S. Ford Motor Co. and Caterpillar Inc. have been among the companies that have pointed to international headwinds. Ford's quarterly results beat estimates, but executives said weakness in China will crimp earnings, dimming its outlook for the year. Caterpillar executives said that global economic uncertainty is weighing on profits. "We're clearly not satisfied with our standing in China, and the team is working exhaustively to return to profitable growth in this important market," Ford Chief Executive James Hackett said on the company's latest earnings call on Oct. 23. In contrast, Microsoft Corp. , which gets more than half its revenue from within the U.S., according to FactSet, recorded per-share earnings and revenue that beat analysts' expectations thanks to strength in its cloud-computing business. Its shares set a record Wednesday. [link] [comments]  |
| 50 Boeing 737 NG planes have been grounded after cracks were detected Posted: 01 Nov 2019 03:32 AM PDT It comes after the FAA issued guidance stating that planes with 30,000 or more take-offs and landings have to be re-inspected within 60 days. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Stocks are risky and not suitable for everybody. Please do your own research. [link] [comments]  |
| Altria writes down Juul investment by $4.5 billion Posted: 31 Oct 2019 09:47 AM PDT Altria CEO notes that vaping industry is at a critical juncture. Despite the devaluation they affirm that they are "committed to Juul's success." Meanwhile, Juul faces widespread criticism and multiple investigations at the state and federal level. Online sales are suspended. Some sort of FDA regulation anticipated. [link] [comments]  |
| Micro 1 sec dip in stock price (wtf is happening here) Posted: 31 Oct 2019 10:57 AM PDT I was holding AAPL with a stop loss set about ~$3 below the daily trending avg. Then this downward spike occurs, triggering the sell, only to settle nearly immediately back to the original price. This all happened within seconds. See the pic at the link below (not sure how to upload here). What is this? This has happened before. Nearly negates the purposes of a stop loss. [link] [comments]  |
| What EFT bonds do you have in your portfolio and why? Posted: 01 Nov 2019 12:56 AM PDT All, In the EUR zone. I am starting to build out my pension using the bucket allocation, and I was hoping that people could give advice on the bond side of investing. So far we put away 6-8 months of expenses in cash, and i want to start putting some into bonds. What type of ETF bonds to do use for your portfolio? So far I am thinking about either EU gov bonds (ultra safe) or total bond (more risk, more returns) ? Suggestions? How old are you? 45 Are you employed/making income? How much? IT Contractor, after taxes, 120k. Work is steady as I am in a niche skill market. What are your objectives with this money? Pension What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?) 80% I say What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?) S&P index that is about 10 years of living expenses at current NBV and 8 month of living expenses as savings / cash Any other assets? House. 1k a month, car is paid off Expensive significant other? Wife. What is your time horizon? Next 10 years Any big debts? No [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Oct 2019 05:46 PM PDT It's easy to find the CAPE for the S&P500, but what about other indices? Or more broadly - is there any service that would show me the CAPE for any ETF? Would probably require a bit of "back-polation" since many ETFs haven't even existed for 10 years. Paid services are okay, unless it's the Bloomberg terminal. [link] [comments]  |
| Portfolio optimization: Risk parity in the real world Posted: 01 Nov 2019 12:12 AM PDT I have been recently learning about portfolio optimization (thanks to the various comment by /u/enginerd03). The whitepaper by ResolveAsset (https://investresolve.com/file/pdf/Portfolio-Optimization-Whitepaper.pdf) provides also a good overview and a nice decision tree to various optimizers. In my current portfolio I have a small < 5% allocation to a stock that grew 40+%. According to a risk parity model I should overweight this allocation to 18% relative to the other assets. As a value investor this seems counter intuitive to me as the stock has greatly appreciated. As a long term investor I do not want to sell the other assets just to raise the equity size of this individual stock. In such cases how should one proceed and how do professional investors handle these cases? Is portfolio optimization a systematic process where you just apply the output regardless of intrinsic value, long term guidance etc.? BTW I recently came across the "Black-Litterman Asset Allocation Model" which seems to work with the user's own forecast. Would love to hear some thoughts on this approach as well. Thanks [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Nov 2019 03:49 AM PDT In fairness iPhone sales probably will receive a boost from the expected release of new 5G phones. However, accelerated or delayed phone upgrades are merely moving revenues in time rather than growing revenues. For me the recent stock price increase is overdone. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Stocks are risky and not suitable for everybody. Please do your own research. [link] [comments]  |
| GreenTech/CleanTech index funds and ESG. Is it all nonsense? Posted: 01 Nov 2019 02:57 AM PDT I'm looking for index funds that do not increase human suffering. I'm in contact with an investment firm that offers an ESG fund based on the UN's rating system, but from what I can tell the bar for granting a high ESG score is basically a speed bump. Does anyone here have any insight on ESG funds, or examples of ESG rating systems that are independently verifiable? I hope this doesn't break rules 1 and 2, but I realise that ESG is probably inherently political. [link] [comments]  |
| Looking for online information about investing in real estate in foreign countries Posted: 01 Nov 2019 02:23 AM PDT Do any of you redditors happen to know about online tools to help the real estate investor in foreign countries? [link] [comments]  |
| Jeep, Ram, Citroen, and Peugeot unite to become 4th-largest automaker Posted: 31 Oct 2019 10:28 PM PDT
Alternative news link: https://www.npr.org/2019/10/31/774994474/fiat-chrysler-and-peugeot-agree-on-merger-to-create-4th-largest-car-maker [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Oct 2019 06:40 PM PDT So I'm 99.9% sure this is not a possibility for a retail investor such as myself, but is there pairs trading in debt markets? I was looking at national debt data and delinquency rates and it occurred to me that this could be a possibility. Especially with the last recession on peoples minds, the nation on average may be more reluctant to get behind on their mortgage debt relative to other debt. Side note, did you know that the 90+ day deliquency rate on student debt has been over 10% since 2012? [link] [comments]  |
| Non-liquid, non-marginal or little-known assets Posted: 31 Oct 2019 05:03 PM PDT Markets are at all high because there are lots of cheap money and credit. Most assets are overpriced, hard to find anything cheap. I'm thinking about making a list of non-usual assets that don't have access to cheap money or credit or require some effort to trade. Then we can look at it and meditate, and maybe find a good opportunity there. There are following requirements (could be satisfied partly): - Non-liquid. No easy way to jump in and out. You have to pay either with high spread (let's say at least ~3%) or with time (couple of weeks at lest). This friction should more or less rule out money from individual, speculator hedge funds and government institutions like pension funds etc. - Non-marginal. No way to buy it with cheap loan from the bank. This should rule out cheap credit. - Requires effort or rare knowledge to evaluate the asset and/or trade it. Assets that are immediately ruled out: - shares, bonds and commodities traded on biggest exchanges. - conventional real estate like houses (people can buy it with cheap loan). - commodities traded on biggest exchanges. Possible candidates: - shares of small companies in small countries that's not available on big exchanges. Like shares of small farm or hotel businesses in let's say Slovenia. (requires effort to access local exchange and knowledge of local businesses to access asset price) - put/call options on small companies far away in the future and from the strike price. (high spread, low volume thus may require long time to transact). I know that's could be not the best way to invest, but I'm trying to build the list for now and judge it later. Please write your suggestions, with explanation why it's satisfy the requirements. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Oct 2019 11:15 PM PDT Reminds me of a modern a day Bowflex; Sold alot of machines for a period of time before they became obsolete. Subscription Boutique Fitness will soon die out when VR Technology takes over. Hard to convince me a company is 6.63 Billion when sales are only 915 Million and it earned about (196 million). The company needed almost a billion dollars in sales to make negative 200 million! At that ratio, the company would need about 2 Billion in sales just to break even. Shorts on PTON! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Oct 2019 11:00 PM PDT Just got an ad on Etoro on Youtube. Never heard of it. Looks like a crypto currency trading platform, which even lets you trade when an assigned trader trades if you don't want to pick out your trades. From my understandings based of this ad. Was wondering how good is this platform, given the fact they Alec Baldwin advertising it. [link] [comments]  |
| % of investor shares drop down when he gets his "Money back" Posted: 31 Oct 2019 12:57 PM PDT Hi, Seen that on Shark Tank quite a few times. For exemple "Invest 100k for 20%, and if you get your money back within 4 years it drops to 5%" How it is called ? The company then tries/has to reimburse like a loan or with dividends only ? Best, Tom [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Oct 2019 06:33 AM PDT I'm interested in knowing how people research companies that might be primed for an acquisition. This caught my attention this week with the news around Fitbit and how Google made an offer to acquire them. Fitbit stock spiked after the news and looking to hopefully take advantage of that in the future. I understand some of the things to look for: Niche product/service, market for product/service, low debt, consistent profit. I'm sure I'm missing some of the key factors to look for. But my question is more around how do you research if a company has a successful product in a niche market, if their is a market for it, finding a company with operational efficiency. Not all of this will be on a companies 10k, even if it is I am still learning on how to read it. How do you research? And what are some companies you think are primed for an acquisition in the next 12 months? [link] [comments]  |
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