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    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Aug 02, 2019

    August 02, 2019

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Aug 02, 2019

    r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Aug 02, 2019

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 01:07 AM PDT

    This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on fundamentals, but if fundamentals aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against fundamentals here and not in the current post.

    Some helpful day to day links, including news:

    Most fundamentals are updated every 3 months due to the fact that corporations release earnings reports every quarter, so traders are always speculating at what those earnings will say, and investors may change the size of their holdings based on those reports. Expect a lot of volatility around earnings, but it usually doesn't matter if you're holding long term, but keep in mind the importance of earnings reports because a trend of declining earnings or a decline in some other fundamental will drive the stock down over the long term as well.

    See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

    Market Cap - Shares Outstanding - Volume - Dividend - EPS - P/E Ratio - EPS Q/Q - PEG - Sales Q/Q - Return on Assets (ROA) - Return on Equity (ROE) - BETA - SMA - quarterly earnings

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EBITDA," then google "investopedia EBITDA" and click the Investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Useful links:

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Tarriifffss

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 08:25 AM PDT

    What stocks thrive in a trade war environment?

    submitted by /u/RetlocPeck
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    Thoughts on $SQ?

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 10:01 AM PDT

    Seems like a 15% drop is pretty steep considering their earnings report yesterday, and the fact they really aren't affected much by the trade war. Do you guys think its a good buying opportunity?

    submitted by /u/JJ954
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    Doesn't it make logical sense to replace US index and non-US index with combined world index in long term portfolio?

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 07:37 AM PDT

    • For an international investor (non US person)

    • Following the rule of KISS (keep it simple, sweetheart)

    • Assuming one is holding a long term stock/bond portfolio (15+ year outlook) and this portfolio has US and non-US equity exposure (let's say VOO and VXUS) that is being rebalanced on annual basis (to let's say 55% VOO, 45% VXUS)

    ...wouldn't it be more simple to just combine both of those funds into one single world stock index fund like VT?

    Why isn't this a good idea if you aren't a trader and just want to hold stocks for longer term compounding growth, but want not only US, but international exposure?

    submitted by /u/RealHedgeFund
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    Do these arguments against index investing, Boglehead strategy and comments on current market hold any ground?

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 11:18 AM PDT

    I'm too dumb to understand what this person is saying, but from overview it seems he might have an idea of what he is talking about.

    So I'm turning here for you, as professionals to tell me why he is wrong.

    The guy is also getting downvoted on /r/bogleheads, which means he is going against the narrative and usually those are the people who make money in markets.

    I wanted to apply long term index investing strategy investing in world stock index and global bond index.

    The arguments below:

    Since the Nixon Shock in 71, our system embarked on a massive credit expansion. It collapsed in Aug 9th 2007 when the offshore USD funding markets seized up. The EuroDollar which is outside the control of the Fed. Since then the central banks have stepped to create bank reserves to replace the lack of credit creation by commercial banks. After 12 years it looks like the process will no longer prevent the debt deflation. Winter is coming.

    They will fight tooth and nail. Overt monetary transactions to fund the government, helicopter money for the citizens, and likely large scale asset purchases to prop up markets since the system is so leveraged.

    Look at what the ECB has done. with Lagarde coming on board you know negative rates are on the menu. This will force the Fed to go below the zero bound to the "lower effective bound" as they call it now. You can't have the Euro rates at -3% and Tbills at zero. Too big a differential.

    If they insist on price controls for stocks and bonds then the pressure will be released via the currency.

    On Boglehead investing:

    Bogleism works on the upcycle of a massive credit expansion. It'll be a disaster on the downside.

    Bogle, Buffet, and other Bogletard heroes rode the upside of a secular multi-decade credit wave. Very easy to look smart during such financial asset inflation. Now the downside as the wave crests.

    And you don't see a problem with that? As passive overtakes active? Who will buy when Bogletards get spooked? There are no market makers left. It's all algos that will let the price drop to zero.

    On US bonds / Gold / Kondratieff cycle:

    Forget about US bonds. We are following your lead and going negative as well. There is only one asset class that can protect you from the Zombie Central Banker Apocalypse.

    It's a shame Bogle philosophy has beaten the common wisdom out of investors that it is normal to have 10% of your liquid net worth in gold. Gold is the bridge to the new system when the old one gets debt saturated. happens every 40 to 80 years. The Kondratieff cycle. The last people who suffered a sovereign debt crisis are all dead. So the cycle repeats. Should have had a reset back in 2000 but the fed blew a housing bubble. Then when that imploded the problem was moved to a bigger balance sheet...that of sovereigns. Next crisis will take down currencies.

    I would have at least 20% in allocated physical. The more you understand the macro environment and where this is all headed then you can feel more comfortable with a bigger allocation. I don't plan dishoarding until I can go to a bank and get a CD offerring a rate at least 2% above inflation.

    On CBGA:

    Last Friday the central banks did not renew a 5 year CBGA. This means the top line asset on the balance sheets of central banks has flowed to where it needs to be to keep the important US creditors whole as the USD is devalued per a new Bretton Woods. Since the GFC the infrastructure has been built out for an alternate trade settlement system outside SWIFT. A neutral reserve asset will be used to settle net balance of payments between trading blocs. Also there will be a BRICS Pay System usable by individuals on smartphones. Somebody in China could buy goods from South Africa and not bother with the USD as a middleman. A crypto token based on the World Currency unit could be used. Gold and silver are part of the WCU. Or they could use another currency/metal index from the BRICS New Development Bank.

    ​

    While the world turned off their brains and put investing on autopilot with these index funds, the C-Suite paid themselves with handsome option packages. They tapped the bond markets filled up with yield starved investors fleeing suppressed interest rates in the sovereign markets. Then they took this money and rather than invest in capex, they bought back their own stock and issued special dividends. buybacks are ok if done out of cashflow, but if you are borrowing solely for the purpose of financial engineering...well there will be hell to pay.

    On particular stocks:

    AAPL has cash hoard. International investors look at it as bond with equity upside. The big risk for Apple is deglobalization. No more arbing labor. Margin compression and the lack of innovation will eventually take its toll. Plus that cash probably is not hedged. If the Treasury announces a Plaza Accord to devalue the USD then APPLE will look stupid.

    MSFT I would check their debt maturity profile. It has really exploded the last few years. If rates rise this could be a structural headwind for the company. But the Fed will probably open a window for corporate debt like the ECB. everything will likely get rolled at negative yields. Socialism for the rich, BK for the poor.

    The big problem for the Vanguard ETFS is GOOG and AMZN. These stocks need to split. The liquidity won't be there for a lot( 100 shares) of AMZN when it's at 2000 dollar per share. The bid stack just won't be that deep.

    What could happen is that these ETFs typically use an equity swap to help track an index. It will be the counterparty for this swap that will fail leaving the ETF with a tracking error. Panic...more tracking error..repeat viscious cycle.

    Triffin's Dilemma:

    We are moving to a multipolar world in which no single country will have the burden of Triffin's Dilemma. They tried to fix this flaw at Bretton Woods in '44 with the bancor but saddled the US with burden of being responsible for global liquidity. Hence tha massive trade imbalances we have now.

    We are going back to settling trade imbalances with a neutral reserve asset as before the Nixon shock. It was no accident we had an oil crisis shortly after the gold window was closed. For petrodollar to be big enough to support the Treasury market the price of oil had go up bigly. Hence the legend of those evil OPECers. They were just doing what they were ordered to by Kissinger. recycle your oil proceeds into US Treasuries and you'll have US military protection.

    Now the PetroDollar money laundering scam is over. Oil producers have been selling oil to China for RMB. Even the Saudis. just hasn't been announced yet. Saudi Aramaco has been showing big RMB balances in its financials. Iran has been accepting RMB for its oil sales. Hence all the hysteria over Iran. Russia the same. In fact Russia used all its Treasuries as collateral to buy gold.

    It's coming. The new system. It will be devesating for US financial assets but great for flyover country. Be prepared. Own stakes in the one asset that will reconcile the mismatch between liabilities and assets on central bank balance sheets as they hit the reset button. For like oil was made big enough, gold will be made much bigger to serve as neutral reserve asset and extinguish all this sovereign debt.

    ​

    On Market cycles:

    ​

    read dalio's public paper or watch his video how the economy works. he refers to the k-wave.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

    there's a 30-40 year interest rate cycle. We've been on the downleg since 1981. it's so bad now that CBs will have to take rates negative b/c the outstanding debt cannot be serviced if rates rise. DEBT SATURATION. nobody alive knows about this b/c the last people who did are now dead. we have whole generations of investing professionals who don't realize the water in which they swim has been a secular falling rate environment in which debt is merely rolled over again and again at lower rates. The principal is never paid back. This is the sovereign debt bubble.

    More on him here: https://old.reddit.com/user/PreacherofArrakeen

    I wouldn't pay much attention unless he was ultra specific and had references for everything. It seems like this is a way person who knows something talks. But then again, it could all be bullshit, I'd just like to know why, why is he wrong? Again, I'm not intelligent enough to make that conclusion myself.

    submitted by /u/RealHedgeFund
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    Trade War: Boeing Has a Lot at Stake

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 11:14 AM PDT

    Boeing (BA) is stuck in the middle of the escalating trade war between the US and China. The trade tension between the two nations intensified. The US imposed new tariffs on Chinese imports. On Thursday, President Trump announced a 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods.

    What's at stake for Boeing?

    China's reaction could impact Boeing (BA). China is Boeing's largest commercial aircraft market. In 2017, China accounted for approximately 25% of Boeing's overall commercial aircraft deliveries and 20% of its total orders. However, the company didn't have any orders from Chinese airline operators in 2018 due to trade relations with the US.

    According to Boeing's estimate, China will need 7,690 new airplanes worth $1.2 trillion over the next 20 years. Also, the company expects that the commercial services industry will grow to $1.5 trillion during the same period and account for 17% of the global demand.

    Therefore, China plays a crucial role in Boeing's sustainable growth in the long term. Over several years, China maintained an even balance for aircraft orders between Boeing and Airbus.

    However, China could use Boeing to strike back against the US. In late March, China signed a multi-billion dollar deal with Airbus. The deal was seen as a retaliation against President Trump's tariff hike on steel and aluminum on March 8. President Jinping signed the agreement during his Paris visit in March. China agreed to purchase 300 Airbus aircraft worth 30 billion euros or $35 billion at the list price.

    In early June, Bloomberg reported that Boeing and Chinese officials are negotiating deals for the company's twin-aisle wide-body jets. However, the deals haven't materialized. According to the report, the deal could have brought 100 aircraft orders for Boeing's 787 Dreamliner and 777X models. The transaction was worth $30 billion at list price.

    Boeing's stock performance

    The trade war could create more problems for Boeing. The stock fell over 2% on Thursday due to concerns about risk exposure. The trade war is intensifying between the US and China.

    Boeing stock fell over the last four months due to ongoing troubles with its fast-selling 737 MAX planes. Notably, the planes have been under a flying ban since mid-March. There were two deadly accidents within five months. The stock, which made a remarkable run before the Ethiopian Airlines crash on March 10, has lost most of its YTD (year-to-date) gain. As of Thursday, Boeing's YTD return is 3.7%, which is much lower than nearly 31% as of March 8.

    The stock has underperformed the iShares Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), which has gained 22.7% YTD. ITA invests in companies that assemble, manufacture, and distribute aerospace and defense equipment. Boeing's peers in the space have also made substantial gains this year. Northrop Grumman (NOC), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and United Technologies (UTX) stocks have returned 40.9%, 38.7%, and 23.8%, respectively.

    https://articles2.marketrealist.com/2019/08/trade-war-boeing-has-a-lot-at-stake/

    submitted by /u/rudykruger
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    Damn customer service, or lack thereof

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 02:00 PM PDT

    Aphria, Inc. = The World’s Most Profitable Cannabis Company >$1b MC

    Posted: 01 Aug 2019 05:02 PM PDT

    http://www.finance.yahoo.com/news/aphria-first-canadian-pot-company-205216866.html

    Aphria, Inc., a leading cannabis producer celebrates an astronomic earnings beat by reporting in as the first and largest global cannabis company to produce a profit, aided by a 158% increase in sales...

    We have a good thing growing.

    CFO assures that they will report $750m of revenue for between Jan-Dec 2020. With that said, this company is not going to be <$2b MC for much longer at this point...

    Aphria (APHA) shares on NYSE are up +32.69% after-hours, with good reason. Onward and upward!

    submitted by /u/DrHarrisonLawrence
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    If you own a marijuana stock and its not Aphria, sell it and buy Aphria [US: APHA]

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 01:31 PM PDT

    already profitable, revenues jumped 1000%

    submitted by /u/Dems4Prez
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    Thoughts on ENDP?

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 01:11 PM PDT

    ENDP has been slammed by the opioid lawsuits but have a strong sterile injectables line. The stock is at a five year low and their earnings coming out on 8/6, they have beat earnings quarter after quarter.

    What are you thoughts on this company?

    submitted by /u/Barista97
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    FSLY

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 09:22 AM PDT

    whats happen to fsly? why is it losing so much steam in last five days?

    submitted by /u/marvinisarobot69
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    Fellow investors of Chinese stocks! What is your play right now?

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 03:22 AM PDT

    Been holding BABA (in at ~165) for a while now, but the lack of tariff war resolution (or any positive movement at all) has got me wondering whether that money is better placed elsewhere. Are you all holding or have you given up?

    submitted by /u/scouting4food
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    Anyone else selling puts on their favorite stocks?

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 12:49 PM PDT

    Title!

    Guess we will see which way it goes. I'm hoping to just catch premium decay for Aug/Sept contracts but I don't mind if I build a position in the dip.

    submitted by /u/SwitchedOnNow
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    Man the market is trash this week

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 12:34 PM PDT

    Everything just fucking sucks. $SHOP goes sky high after earnings then collapses down. Not to mention that mystery drop across the market yesterday.

    Thanks Trump

    submitted by /u/Bigmealplantime
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    Thoughts on $ITT??

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 11:51 AM PDT

    They had awesome earnings and raised guidance. I know the trade war kills stocks but man I thought they would be positive today with the good quarter.

    submitted by /u/extremist_wolf
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    Investing in CWBHF

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 10:20 AM PDT

    I'm new here so bear with me.

    This is a cbd oil company, I think as the marijuana becomes more legal this might skyrocket. It's been skyrocketing over the past week. Do I invest now, wait for it to plummet again, or invest in something else?

    submitted by /u/frankogivesspankos
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    "Staggering" Deposits/Investments

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 09:36 AM PDT

    Finance major, college student here with a relatively basic portfolio. Wondering if investing about 1-2K each month is not a bad idea. I know time in the market is better than timing the market, but I don't have my hands on that much capital to put it all in at once. Any other advice is appreciated too, thanks!

    submitted by /u/StoxAndJox
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    Does anybody know if White Claw's company (Mark Anthony Brands) is publicly traded?

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 05:34 AM PDT

    I was recently @ a pool party in Atlantic City @ a place called HQ2... when I tell you almost everyone, and I mean almost everyone, was ordering that damn White Claw drink...especially those white girls!

    Can't find anything that says its publicly traded but maybe I'm just dumb...

    submitted by /u/Jroddy732
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    Thoughts on $APD

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 09:12 AM PDT

    The CEO of APD purchased $3 million shares when it was $160 it's now $230. He just purchased $4 million more shares. I'm not sure it's the best time to buy but curious what others thoughts are here.

    submitted by /u/alpineballer420
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    Thoughts on FTSI the well completion company

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 08:49 AM PDT

    I have been following this stock for the past six months and it keeps plummeting because of low demand to drill wells because of the lower oil prices. I believe this stock could increase greatly because drilling companies fluctuate greatly because a slightly positive outlook for oil prices means a lot of oil companies sitting on cash waiting for improved prices will start drilling. Let me know what you think.

    submitted by /u/AidsSZN
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    Leveraged Hang Seng ETF's

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 08:49 AM PDT

    Are there any Hang Seng Leveraged Bullish ETF's? I know there's Hang Seng ETF's but I'm looking for something leveraged 2x or 3x.

    submitted by /u/psr91
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    What happens to my puts if a company goes bankrupt/out of business?

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 08:10 AM PDT

    I have a bunch of GME puts expiring in 2021 because I think the company will die since everything is going online now (cheaper for the game devs as well, no physical games to produce anymore, just digital downloads).

    It's currently trading around $3.

    What if they simply go under or file for bankruptcy?

    Will my puts exercise?

    submitted by /u/RyanRaynor
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    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning August 5th, 2019

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 04:23 AM PDT

    Here are the most notable earnings releases for the trading week beginning August 5th, 2019.

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

    Monday 8.5.19 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Monday 8.5.19 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Tuesday 8.6.19 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Tuesday 8.6.19 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

    Wednesday 8.7.19 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Wednesday 8.7.19 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

    Thursday 8.8.19 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Thursday 8.8.19 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Friday 8.9.19 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 8.9.19 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Have a great weekend r/stocks.

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
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    Should I sell $ENPH?

    Posted: 02 Aug 2019 08:09 AM PDT

    Just got into stock investing recently as in this was my first stock purchase. I came in at 30.06 and it has gone down. Was hoping someone may have some insight or more experience dealing with something like this. Just worried that the stock may have been over valued is why I'm concerned.

    submitted by /u/jkrajnik97
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