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    Home Unlabelled Stock Market - Trump made up those 'high-level' Chinese trade-talk calls to boost markets, aides admit

    Stock Market - Trump made up those 'high-level' Chinese trade-talk calls to boost markets, aides admit

    August 29, 2019

    Stock Market - Trump made up those 'high-level' Chinese trade-talk calls to boost markets, aides admit

    Trump made up those 'high-level' Chinese trade-talk calls to boost markets, aides admit

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 12:25 PM PDT

    False optimisms in the stock market based on "talks" that aren't happening.

    Now there's more confirmation outside of China that there are no potential talks or agreements happening.

    submitted by /u/Starky_Love
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    Can The Metals Break Out Again?

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 05:26 PM PDT

    Originally published Sat Aug 24 in our ElliottWaveTrader room: Personally, I love trading metals and have been doing so for quite some time. In fact, the best trade of my entire career was in silver many years ago.

    But, the one thing that we commonly see in the complex is that when the market strikes a top, it most often spikes into and then strongly reverses at that top as a culmination signal. Thus far, I have not seen that in the metals.
    So, for this reason, and based upon the analysis I have provided to date, I am still not confident that the metals have topped, and I am now speaking of the alternative scenario presented in yellow. Rather, the market is going to have to prove that to me by a break of the supports I have noted on all my charts and in all my prior analysis. So, I am not going to bore you this weekend with a re-hashing of that analysis.

    At this time, the market is now rallying up towards the market pivot I have noted on my 8-minute GDX chart. And, as I have mentioned before, I am using this chart right now as a proxy for larger indications in the overall complex. As you can see, as of the close on Friday, we are hovering just below it, and have almost completed another micro 5 wave structure off what I have counted as a wave (2) of (iii).

    But, I want to stress something again, which I attempted to highlight in my live video this past week. The (1)(2) structure I have noted on my 8-minute GDX chart is not the cleanest of structures. It relies upon a truncated pattern, and they are not always terribly reliable. However, if the market is able to push up against this pivot in the coming week, and then pullback correctively, I will be watching for a break out which can signal that larger move higher I would prefer to see to fill in the ideal bullish structures on the daily charts.

    So, I think this next two weeks will likely tell us if the GDX is really on its way to the 35-37 region, or if we have indeed topped in the alternative wave i in yellow. As I have stated many times before as well, I will most often default to the more bullish count in the metals complex if there is a reasonable count to be had, and have explained my reasoning for this in the past. So, when you make an assessment of the manner in which you want to treat this complex, please keep that in mind.

    As I have also noted in my last updates, another break out higher would resolve the issues I have had with the GDXJ chart seemingly being one wave degree behind the rest of the complex. So, a strong rally off the support noted on that chart would be wave v of (3), whereas the other charts would also be completing their respective waves v of (3). That being said, the GDXJ really only counts best as a 3-wave move off its last lows thus far, so it does make me a bit more cautious in the near term . . . at least until GDX is able to fulfill its break out potential, which will likely pull the rest of the complex along with it to the upside.

    At the end of the day, I have to say that I am cautiously optimistic as long as the supports noted on my charts hold. However, even though I default to the more bullish count potentials, I will not trade them aggressively until the market proves its intention with a break out through the pivot noted on the 8-minute GDX chart. And, unfortunately, I don't think that happens in a direct fashion, but would be quite pleased if it did. Rather, I think the next pullback off this pivot resistance on GDX can be telling based upon whether it will be impulsive or corrective. So, I am going to be a bit more patient before I trade this complex aggressively to the long side.

    While this analysis really discusses the near-term direction of the complex, I have to note that if the alternative wave count does play out, it still keeps us within a larger degree bullish pattern, but may provide us with a multi-week pullback before the resumption of the bull move. So, one way or another, I still expect to see much higher levels in the complex over the longer term.

    GDX, GLD, SI charts/wave counts illustrated here.

    submitted by /u/avigilburt
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    Stocks Futures Spike on China Tariff Truce

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 04:19 AM PDT

    Reading book called ‘stock market 101’ is this quote still true

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 07:46 PM PDT

    "Once a new president is elected and takes over, the market tends to follow a fairly predictable patter".

    Also if this sub isn't good for these type of questions can you suggest a sub that is

    submitted by /u/Srk7654321
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    Profit from a market crash? What options are available to a newbie

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 01:16 PM PDT

    So I'm still in the process of lest ing about the stock market, I haven't started investing yet . You could say I'm saving for the right time to invest, when i have the right knowledge to do so. For someone who hasn't invested yet , would it be a good idea to keep track of the market and its trends and if there is actually a crash in the recent years , as a lot of the critics have been talking about in the past years , and if the market does crash then only then investing in high value companies at lowered stock prices, which are surely to make up for their loss in stock value over the next few years or so .?

    submitted by /u/Alphaaaa95
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    Jmia

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 11:34 AM PDT

    I recently invested in jmia as it just hit a 52 week low and has tremendous potential to become the mercado libre of Africa. Obviously there are risks involved due to the politics ongoing in Africa ,but what are your thoughts on the stock?

    submitted by /u/armin2345
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    Identifying Earnings Management by Monitoring Revenue Recognition Policies (TSLA in Focus)

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 03:11 PM PDT

    Original Source

    Hey all - here's a little something I wrote up to practice identifying potentially deceptive/manipulative accounting tactics. Hopefully it helps someone and hopefully you all have some thoughts on this as well since I'm certain there are things I'm not considering when writing this. I definitely don't know everything about Tesla or the subject matter in general, but I thought it was a good example of the practice:

    Identifying Earnings Management by Monitoring Revenue Recognition Policies

    In the investing world, there's a concept known as cookie jar accounting. This is for all intents and purposes a friendly way of saying legal financial manipulation. Cookie jar accounting is not illegal, but it can be a troubling indicator if it's done chronically, and even in a singular instance it can indicate a potentially significant detriment to future cash flows and earnings. To that end, the intention of this post is not to take a positive or negative position on companies that employ cookie jar accounting or other earnings management tactics, but instead to educate and inform on how the process works and how it can be identified, potentially saving investors from unfavorable earnings surprises and allowing analysts to predict earnings more accurately.

    In Q1 of 2018, our friends at Tesla, Inc (TSLA) updated a key revenue recognition policy:

    We plan to adopt the new revenue recognition standard ASC 606 effective January 1, 2018. This will impact the way we account for vehicle sales with a resale value guarantee and vehicles leased through our leasing partners, which now will qualify to be accounted for as sales with a right of return. In addition, for certain vehicles sales with a resale value guarantee and vehicles leased through leasing partners prior to 2018, we will cease recognizing lease revenue starting in 2018 and record the associated cumulative adjustment to equity under the modified retrospective approach. (page 41)

    Vehicle deliveries with the resale value guarantee do not impact our near-term cash flows and liquidity, since we receive the full amount of cash for the vehicle sales price at delivery. While we do not assume any credit risk related to the customer, if a customer exercises the option to return the vehicle to us, we are exposed to liquidity risk that the resale value of vehicles under these programs may be lower than our guarantee, or the volume of vehicles returned to us may be higher than our estimates or we may be unable to resell the used cars in a timely manner, all of which could adversely impact our cash flows. (page 41)

    The adoption of the ASUs will accelerate the revenue recognition of certain vehicle sales to customers or leasing partners with a resale value guarantee, which will therefore qualify to be accounted for as sales with a right of return as opposed to the current accounting as operating leases or collateralized lease borrowings. (page 80)

    Source: 2017 TSLA 10-K

    This essentially indicated that Tesla planned to begin immediately recognizing revenue which would previously have been recognized over time, and trust that their leasing partners wouldn't exercise their right of return and dump the product back on Tesla, sticking them with a used asset that wasn't worth the revenue they recognized when they sold it and forcing them to adjust their earnings to account for the difference. Of course, because the customers in this case are leasing partners, the policy change was not as blatantly manipulative as something like channel stuffing, but it was certainly a gamble by Tesla management at the very least. Nevertheless, in Q3 2018 Tesla unsurprisingly announced a "truly historic quarter" with year over year GAAP revenue growth of nearly 130% to $6.82 billion and a "surprise" GAAP profit of $1.82/share. This in turn created a buying frenzy sending TSLA stock from just above $250 to nearly $400/share between October and December of 2018. Over the next six months though, Tesla stock bled away these gains in spectacular fashion, hitting lows below $180/share before finally beginning a small recovery. How could investors have seen this coming? How might you have saved yourself from buying Tesla at $375/share only to see it immediately shed more than 50% and decimate your portfolio?

    Enter the Manipulation Monitor:

    The first sign that something was amiss actually showed up before Tesla's "historic quarter." Almost immediately after the 2017 annual report, LazyFA's Manipulation Monitor identified large declines in both unearned revenue as a percentage of sales and days unearned revenue. Obviously, this would lead to a decline in the actual unearned revenue itself. This is Tesla with their "hands in the cookie jar", accelerating revenue recognition in accordance with the new revenue standard. And of course, depleting that unearned revenue would lead to the simultaneous "increase" in recognized revenue. This (partially, in fairness) explains the huge year over year increase in sales in Q3 and Q4 of 2018.

    As Tesla tapped their unearned revenue over the course of 2018, assets and liabilities related to the adoption of the new revenue standard were shifted around, resulting in a wonderful finish to the year showing operating cash flow of $2.10 billion, a staggering $2.16 billion increase from the previous year's cash outflow of $60 million. This type of statistical outlier is a clear red flag, and as such was easily identified by LazyFA's Red Flag Analysis Engine. Make no mistake though. Tesla was very clear about the source of these changes. All investors needed to do was read the 10-K:

    This favorable change was primarily due to the increase in net income, excluding non-cash expenses and gains, of $1.60 billion and the decrease in net operating assets and liabilities of $554.6 million. The decrease in net operating assets and liabilities was mainly driven by an increase in accounts payable and accrued liabilities, as a result of increased expenditures to support our ramp of Model 3 deliveries and a net decrease in operating lease vehicles and resale value guarantee liability primarily due to the adoption of the new revenue standard (page 65)

    Source: 2018 TSLA 10-K

    Is it any surprise then, really, that the "historic" Q3 2018 and its Q4 successor were not sustainable? While there was certainly some healthy growth in production numbers and legitimate vehicle sales, these increases in revenue, operating cash flow, and earnings per share were largely driven by an accounting change that allowed Tesla to recognize revenue earlier than it normally would have been able to. Subsequently, soon after the announcement of Q3 2018 earnings, Tesla announced that they expected earnings to be much worse in the first half of 2019, which they were. Just look at the complete 180 from the second half of 2018 to the first half of 2019.

    The first half of 2019 was not unexpected for Tesla. It was a reversion to the mean ... a return to normalcy. Management almost certainly knew that this massive positive flip in earnings and cash flow wasn't sustainable, but tapping the cookie jar allowed them to provide the market with a little hope for the future. Being able to identify this type of accounting tactic ahead of time could have saved investors who bought into the hype following Q3 earnings from losing 50% of their investment. Tesla isn't alone in their quest to please Wall Street. Many companies employ these kinds of accounting tricks under pressure to meet analyst expectations and please the market at large. It's up to us as investors to read between the lines.

    What do you think? What am I missing that would change my opinion? Obviously not the entire flip from negative to positive earnings for a couple quarters was due to accounting tricks. What's your take?

    Cheers!

    submitted by /u/ghostofgbt
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    ETF or MF that mirrors foreign bonds

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 03:05 PM PDT

    Is there an ETF or MF that mirrors a foreign bond after currency exchange?

    I'm not looking for bond funds that fluctuate daily. For instance if you invest in a Brazilian bond, you would get ~6% for a 1 Yr bond. Of course the exchange rate may add or subtract on top of that. I'm under the impression that most funds are trying to meet a bond index. I'm just looking for one to mature at the stated rate on the given date.

    submitted by /u/ChronoFish
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    Who wants to join my 1K Challenge?? Day 6

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 04:38 PM PDT

    I already posted this before, but I just would like to say thank you to the people that joined because WE HIT 100 members!!! (discord)

    More people have joined the server, so if you want to talk to new people about stocks feel free to join.

    (This is if you haven't seen my last post )I wanna see what I can turn a $1,000 into and I want to do it with a group of people so we can help each other out and learn from each other as we go.

    I'm not a god at trading, but I would like to improve my skills and become a successful trader.

    If you would like to join me, here is a link to my Discord where I would be showing my progress.

    I am also looking for some admins, so if you are interested please dm me.

    submitted by /u/TraderAhmed
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    Want to make a long-dated leveraged bet on the future PE of the stock market, which vehicle?

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 02:55 PM PDT

    I would like to buy some very far out of the money call options on the SPX that expire 5-10 years from now.

    SPX leaps for 2022 are about to list. So far I haven't been able to find any other product that has the payoff profile I am looking for. Any ideas?

    submitted by /u/johnshedletsky
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    3M (MMM) Technical Analysis Report

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 12:26 PM PDT

    Summary:

    3M has been beaten up because of the trade war and slow down in the Asia Pacific. However, MMM may be finding a support from a hidden trend line, and the stock could be looking for a bottom. In addition, indicators are starting to show bullish divergences which means the bearish momentum is slowing down, and possibly reversing. Even though the trade war is ongoing and the global economy is slowing, 3M's stock price could be finding a bottom, signaling investors are bullish on the future of the economy. The trade war has new rules, but the company has had time to adapt, and 3M is a 117 year old company that has been through many types of economic cycles.

    Read the report and see the charts here: https://www.brtechnicals.com/technical-analysis/stock-reports/3m-mmm/

    submitted by /u/BR-Technicals
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    Can you view the ticker tape on Think or Swim?

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 07:06 AM PDT

    Where do I find the option to view this info within TOS? Thanks

    submitted by /u/JohnniRobbi
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    $INND Huge news out on revenues from their new retail locations - Quarterly filing should be out today or tomorrow

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 06:23 AM PDT

    Response from CEO to a shareholder in the $ACB discord room. I forgot $INND also has a CBD line coming out for their FDA clinical trial on tinitus.

    "InnerScope is exactly on track to successfully execute its Expansion "Rollout Plan" for 2019, by opening new 25 Retail Clinics," said Matthew Moore, CEO of InnerScope Hearing Technologies. "As we look forward beyond 2019, InnerScope will continue its Expansion "Rollout Plan" of strategically opening new Retail Clinics in California and throughout the Pacific North West."
    "We are expecting a minimum annual sales run-rate to exceed $12 Million Dollars by the end of 2019 from just the 25 Retail Clinics. InnerScope's Retail Clinics in conjunction with Walmart.com, Sears.com and Kmart.com as well as its technology partners to include new strategic partnerships soon to be announced, will allow InnerScope to play a major role by being the leader delivering affordable hearing healthcare in this country and throughout the world,"

    submitted by /u/F1_fanz
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    Differences in Open P/L on different platforms. [don't upvote please]

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 09:06 AM PDT

    Hey guys,

    It may be a very stupid question but please bear with me. I have a broker account with Degiro and i log my trades on investing.com (to see EC dates, fundamentals etc)

    on Degiro I have an Open P/L of 1084 euro picture and on the investing.com I have 968 euro picture why is there a difference of 100 euro. And why is there a market value difference of almost 3k euros?

    All trades ( ~20 tickers) are logged in.

    Cheers

    submitted by /u/FakeThrow_45
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    Top 4 Mutual Fund Investment Tips for Beginners

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 04:41 AM PDT

    'Mutual Funds Acha Hai' aka mutual fund investment is good is one of the emerging slogans in India. Due to multiple benefits such as invest as small amount as 500 Rs and no lock-in period make is one of the preferred investment options for many people. To guide beginners with their investment management, there are many best online investment app and sites available. In this article, you will find the top 4 mutual fund investment tips.

    Understand the risk first

    Generally, as per the best stock trading app for beginners, the mutual funds give good returns, However, mutual fund investment is subject to market risk and that is why before investing in any funds, it is necessary to learn in detail about the risk involved. For example, the highest returns and risks are correlated to mid and small-cap equity funds. If you want to get started with low risk then debt funds are good. Dig in about rewards and risks related to funds you are willing to buy. Explore reviews and comments on best online investment apps.

    Define objectives

    As per the stock market India experts, the objectives of investment need to be clear. Don't buy funds because your friend is buying or suggesting. Buy them because you want to achieve some benefits such as tax benefits or higher returns at minimum possible risk. You need to know how much you will invest and for how long and based on the answers to these two questions, you can choose anyone or more option to invest in funds. For example, some best stock trading apps for beginners suggest investing in ultra short term debt funds to get higher returns than bank saving account in minimum tenure. If you want to stay invested for longer-term, then ELSS is one of the good choices if the best online investment app suggestions are believed.

    Diversification is necessary

    It is important to keep your money in a diversified portfolio to make sure the returns are higher and risk is minimized. You can take suggestions from any of the best stock trading app for beginners to identify best performing small-cap and mid-cap funds to get quick returns and invest some funds in that. At the same time, look for the ultra short term or liquid portfolios to invest to gain opposite benefits. As per the stock market India experts, diversification is the necessity to assure returns.

    Periodic monitoring and shift are needed

    Don't forget to look for performance regularly after mutual fund investment. It is necessary to figure out whether your investments are meeting set objectives or not. What is working and what is not has to be gauged on a time to time basis. If you are a newbie and not really sure about this nitty-gritty of stock market India, you can take the help of a portfolio manager or best online investment app that keep guiding you to make profit-making decisions.

    ​

    Source: Top 4 Mutual Fund Investment Tips for Beginners - IntelliInvest

    submitted by /u/josheph98
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    Fibonacci?

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 03:47 AM PDT

    It's there a good video explaining this indicator or is it b.s?

    submitted by /u/YourChaser
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    Are weed stocks a good investment?

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 07:50 AM PDT

    I'm doing a study to find a correlation and I need 3 criteria. 1) yes or no 2) if yes how long do you plan on holding 3) years of experience trading Thanks you

    submitted by /u/tjsawatzky
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