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    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 28 Aug 2019 05:16 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Berkshire Hathaway's cash pile up to a record $122 billion

    Posted: 28 Aug 2019 09:24 AM PDT

    https://theweek.com/speedreads/861627/warren-buffett-hasnt-stockpiled-much-cash-since-right-before-financial-crisis

    Uh oh.

    Warren Buffett, known for being one of the world's most prescient investors, has kept quiet on whether U.S. equities are too expensive at a time when the global economy is slowing, Bloomberg reports. But he's reportedly hoarding a record $122 billion in cash at Berkshire Hathaway Inc., leading to some speculation that he sees a recession on the horizon, or at least is sending some sort of warning. The cash pile is more than half the value of Berkshire's $208 billion portfolio of public companies, and the only time that percentage has reportedly been higher since 1987 was in the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis.

    submitted by /u/cumulonimbus7012
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    What could be the reason why most of Vanguard's sector-specific mutual funds have such absurdly high minimums? $100,000 to get into utilities/HC seems insane when just about every other Admiral Shares is $3,000

    Posted: 28 Aug 2019 07:48 PM PDT

    What does Vanguard gain from setting such a massive minimum investment amount on these funds? I can't imagine that lowering it to even something like $20,000 would make the fund's cap that much more volatile where it wouldn't be financially viable to run....am I just missing something obvious here?

    submitted by /u/freyzha
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    Yuan continues to fall.. Longest Drop Since 2015, lowest since 2009

    Posted: 28 Aug 2019 06:28 AM PDT

    1. Every time we raise tariffs on China, Chinese Yuan devalues making their exports cheaper, hence cancelling the effect. At the same time US exports are double tariffed - from the currency devaluation and tariff added by China.

    2. All of US exports to China are tariffed but only half of Chinese exports to US have a tariff. So the other half of Chinese product is becoming more competitive, their companies can more profit on them.

    3. In 2015 USD Yuan was at 6.20, today it is around 7.19. Yuan wasn't so weak since 2009. China can fight the trade war for many years but that is decimating US exports. US exports are dropping not just to China but to rest of the world as well.

    4. As Yuan devalues, so does Euro, Korean Won, Indian Rupee... This makes US exports less competitive around the world vs Chinese/Korean products. Eg. iPhone more expensive in Europe and China, Samsung is cheaper. Makes Boeing more expensive than Airbus.

    5. Better way to fight China is by isolating them. Together with EU. Human rights is Hong Kong and north China. Why is Huawei getting repeated exemptions?

    China is playing this very long, We have so many political considerations and fold easily.. We need to fight smarter.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yuans-longest-drop-since-2015-094307041.html

    submitted by /u/meditationLearner
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    Ron Insana: This time is not different for the inverted yield curve

    Posted: 28 Aug 2019 06:06 PM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/28/ron-insana-it-aint-different-this-time-for-the-inverted-yield-curve.html

    Key Points

    1.Global interest rates are negative because the world economy is heading toward a synchronized recession.
    2.Transportation, banking and small-cap stocks, the last of which are thought to be immune to global economic weakness, are all flashing warning signs of an impending domestic economic slowdown.
    3.President Trump's trade war has ground global manufacturing to a halt.

    Try to keep the comments civil. I know this is hard for many people as the fear this type of article triggers in the reader is easily transposed to anger at the messenger

    submitted by /u/mark000
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    WeWork IPO - A Brief Look

    Posted: 28 Aug 2019 10:46 PM PDT

    https://terrencenotes.com/2019/08/29/wework-ipo-good-deal/

    WeWork filed their IPO prospectus on 14th August 2019 with the SEC, under its holding company The We Company.

    Forbes quipped it the most ridiculous IPO of 2019 and there are tons of articles questioning the company valuation of US$45bn with only $1.5bn of revenue in 6M19. Read carefully, it's revenue not earnings. WeWork lost US$689m in 6M19. Its equity is -US$2.3bn as of 30th June 2019, with additional US$4.7bn worth of preferred stocks and redeemable non-controlling interest.

    According to its prospectus on page 58, WeWork has US$2.47bn of cash on hand, mostly from VC investors, but it had US$17.9bn of long-term lease obligations. According to the prospectus, WeWork explains their great business model in one simple chart.

    12 months after WeWork signed on an office lease term, their co-working space will turn profitable 6 months after its opening. The chart does not show how losses in the first 12 months stake up against the future profit after the operation turns profitable. According to the prospectus, WeWork made around 20% of net property margin, rental revenue minus lease obligation. So, US$1.5bn gross revenue will give WeWork around US$300m of net property revenue after paying its landlords.

    In my view, WeWork net revenue was around US$300m only in 6M19. Even assuming WeWork, in the long run, could generate 50% net profit margin, its business scale as of June-2019 would only translate into US$150m profit for 6 months period, or US$300m on an annualised basis. That still works out to 150x FY19e earnings if our super aggressive assumptions hold.

    Do bear in mind that WeWork signs long-term office space and convert it to small cubicles, meeting rooms to cater to new start-ups which do not have the financial power to rent the whole space themselves. WeWork's business model is simply rent big space long-term, and lease short-term smaller space to many lessors. It's an even more fragmented space leasing business if you compare that to other property owners such as Sun Hung Kai from Hong Kong, CapitaLand from Singapore or Scentre Group from Australia.

    These investment properties companies takes generations to build and their market value today is largely arisen from the value of the investment properties they hold. These companies normally lease out large space in long-term lease to big tenants, albeit in a discounted rate to smaller tenants. The good thing about these long-term leases is that it creates less fluctuation and their big tenants are unlikely to come and go or breach the leasing agreement.

    The CEO, Adam Neumann has been widely reported by various press that he had already owned several mansions in the U.S. All up cost him hundreds of millions.

    On Page 173, Rebekah and Adam Neumann had also pledged US$1bn to fund charitable causes. On Page 186 footnotes, Adam Neumann also pledged his shares as collateral for loans from financial institutions.

    On page 201, there goes…………Personal Loans

    "Adam currently has a line of credit of up to $500 million with UBS AG, Stamford Branch, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Credit Suisse AG, New York Branch, of which approximately $380 million principal amount was outstanding as of July 31, 2019. The line of credit is secured by a pledge of approximately ____ shares of our Class B common stock beneficially owned by Adam. In addition, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. has made loans and extended credit to Adam totaling $97.5 million across a variety of lending products, including mortgages secured by personal property. None of these other lending products are secured by a pledge of any of Adam's shares of capital stock in the Company."

    and yes, JP Morgan is one of the underwriters of the We Company IPO. JP Morgan's subsidiary extended US$97.5m loan to Adam Neumann.

    I would agree with Forbes and some other skeptics that the We Company IPO is kind of shady given so many shenanigans one can easily discover by reading their prospectus. So, i will not waste more of my time to point out many other worries i have on The We Company structure. There are simply too many articles out there explaining things in more details.

    Anyway, i would definitely pass this IPO for one very simple reason, why should i pay US$45bn valuation for a loss-making company?

    submitted by /u/TT3778
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    Bloomberg: German Unemployment Jump Adds to Pressure for Fiscal Stimulus

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 02:29 AM PDT

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-29/german-unemployment-jump-adds-to-pressure-for-fiscal-stimulus?srnd=premium

    The number of people out of work increased by 4,000 to 2.29 million in August, the fourth straight month that joblessness failed to drop after six years of almost continuous decline. The unemployment rate remained at 5%, near a record low.

    The government, after years of running a budget surplus, has signaled it's willing to step in with fiscal support if needed.

    The German economy shrank 0.1% in the second quarter and the Bundesbank is among institutions expecting another decline in the current three months. That would meet the typical definition of a recession.

    Business confidence fell for a fifth month in August, and blue-chip companies including Henkel and Continental have cut their profit expectations for the year. Consumers are turning more pessimistic in surveys.

    The European Central Bank has also called on Germany to use the leeway in its budget, as the nation's woes threaten to exacerbate economic weakness in the euro zone as whole. German inflation due later Thursday is forecast to come in at 1.2% for August, a slight improvement on July but still feeble enough to drag on the ECB's goal of just under 2% for the currency bloc.

    ECB policy makers are widely expected to cut interest rates further below zero when they meet on Sept. 12.

    submitted by /u/COMPUTER1313
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    Marijuana Stocks

    Posted: 28 Aug 2019 06:33 PM PDT

    Recently marijuana stocks have been pushed under the rug due to the mass amounts of media that focuses on the trade war, what are some opinions about the future of these stocks and what are some of your favorite stocks?

    submitted by /u/tross20
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    So when Buffett is stockpiling "cash" ...

    Posted: 28 Aug 2019 07:04 PM PDT

    How exactly is he holding it? Cash account, Treasury Bills, etc.?

    For funds sitting in a brokerage account I suppose you can liquidate your holdings and keep everything in no interest bearing cash.

    Or you could try to mirror the Treasury route by buying funds like VUSXX, UTIXX, etc. where their focus is to not "break the buck".

    Currently I'm following the latter approach but I'm concerned that if another 2008/2009 buying opportunity comes around that I'll have issues cashing out the Treasury funds. At the same time I don't want to miss out on the 2% yield if I'm stilling on cash.

    Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/riskywebmaster
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    Open a new position in a stock you don't own or double down on a position you currently have?

    Posted: 28 Aug 2019 07:36 PM PDT

    I'm faced with a predicament. One of the holdings I have is very undervalued (by my own estimates). So naturally I'd want to increase my stake to hopefully increase future returns. But on the other hand a company I've analyzed is very close to a price point I've calculated and is looking to be trading at a substantial discount (close to 30% of what I calculated its equity per share is). In a case like this, what is the smartest course of action? Open a new position or double down on a current one?

    submitted by /u/howtoreadspaghetti
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    The Big Short’s Michael Burry Sees a Bubble in Passive Investing

    Posted: 28 Aug 2019 09:04 AM PDT

    Becoming a Millionaire through Disciplined Investing

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 03:15 AM PDT

    https://terrencenotes.com/2019/08/29/becoming-a-millionaire-through-disciplined-investing/

    Previously, i wrote about how much monthly income one needs to make in order to become a millionaire in their late 40's or 50's. The link to my previous post is attached below.

    https://terrencenotes.com/2019/08/01/how-to-become-a-millionaire-in-singapore-2-0/

    One of the major deficiency of my previous post is that i do not factor in investment return on savings. In reality, everyone can invest a portion of their money in stock market. Empirical evidences over the last 200 years have shown that stock, or equity, is the best performing asset class among other assets such as gold, real estate, bonds etc.

    If you are disciplined enough and set aside $10,000 of your savings every year to invest in either mutual fund or ETF, you will be able to save over a million dollars in 30 years time; assuming both mutual fund and ETF give you a 10% and 6% return per annum respectively.

    Please click on the link above to continue reading.......

    submitted by /u/TT3778
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    When CEOs are saying shareholders are no longer the priority, does anybody else see us heading for a passive fund bubble?

    Posted: 28 Aug 2019 11:40 AM PDT

    I'm curious what everyone else's opinion on the CEOs saying that they are no longer held accountable by shareholders because shares are so much dispersed amongst passive investors.

    submitted by /u/RiverYuppy
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    AMD Just captured 23% of the cell phone market in one deal.

    Posted: 28 Aug 2019 11:53 AM PDT

    Why is it a trend for rich families to their businesses and forming Family Offices? Is a steady income from a business not safer than investments in equities/real estate?

    Posted: 28 Aug 2019 08:47 PM PDT

    to sell* their businesses

    submitted by /u/Illustrious_Spare
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    Why is everyone so focus on Buffett's cash pile?

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 03:38 AM PDT

    He can be piling cash because:

    1. He has no idea what to do.
    2. He is timing the market.
    3. He has plans.
    4. Or because he can.

    Do you guys really put weight on this as an indicator? Shouldn't next year GDP forecast be enough to tell you the economy is slowing and return will be lower?

    submitted by /u/caxus1
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    Mutual fund asking for my bank password

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 03:35 AM PDT

    I just went to one of my mutual funds' websites and tried to change the associated bank account, but I canceled out when I discovered that they required me to provide my user name and password for my online access to that account. Is this SOP now? I've never seen this before. Seems like there is potential for...something bad to happen.

    submitted by /u/DybbukTX
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    In Ominous Warning, Dalio Says The Current Period Is Just Like 1935-1945

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 03:03 AM PDT

    Realistically speaking, is it possible for an individual value investor to sift through enough Information fast enough to actually find an undervalued equity before large organized firms gobble them up?

    Posted: 28 Aug 2019 12:44 PM PDT

    I'm not huge on the idea that the market is efficient but I am quickly becoming more aware that there are many firms with speed and capital far beyond my capabilities as an individual.

    I have yet to find a stock that is undervalued using buffets methods but when I retroactively go back short periods of time, I can find many that were undervalued for a very short amount of time.

    An amount of time that I feel would have been impossible for me to find just by randomly sifting through companies financials.

    If you're of the volition that an individual person can sift through enough information to find that lucky $100 bill lying on the ground, what methods have you used to increase your own efficiency in data mining.

    submitted by /u/r3peated
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    What exactly does an Investment Analyst do?

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 01:55 AM PDT

    I am a recent graduate with a Bachelor's degree in Economics and Finance... I'm in the process of getting a job and am a bit confused on which career path to follow...My favourite thing about the degree I pursued was the investment part... I really love it...I always see myself working as an analyst but don't know which one exactly (there are so many analysts in Finance).... Kindly advice me coz i literally don't know what path to take..but seems an Investment analyst position comes close to what i want...In case there are better positions i can pursue, kindly tell me about them...and the salary and career growth opportunities...I'd really love your assistance!

    submitted by /u/Afterflix
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    Best treasuries for recession?

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 01:54 AM PDT

    I am all in stocks but I want to balance my portfolio. I live in EU. I am between buying a total world bond etf from ishares or buy treasuries from US because there is a very slight chance of UK or Italy defaulting.

    What would be the best? 3-7? 7-10 or 20 year bonds as a hedge for recession?

    submitted by /u/aelaos1
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    Stakeholder analysis

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 12:56 AM PDT

    I was wondering of there are any stakeholder analyses available online as I assume companies would be reluctant to share these to the public. Any help as to where I could find any would be appreciated!

    submitted by /u/FurryDoedens
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    Stocks are the new bonds

    Posted: 28 Aug 2019 08:10 AM PDT

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-are-the-new-bonds-194707519.html

    "Conventional wisdom holds that you invest in bonds for yield and equities for capital appreciation," wrote Credit Suisse analysts, led by chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub, in a note to clients. "While this might be true historically, with 10-Year Treasury yields collapsing (to 1.5% from 3.2%) over the past 9 months, stocks now offer the best of both."

    "That stock yields are higher than bond yields is certainly a strong argument to own U.S. equities," Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research told Yahoo Finance. "It won't protect you from near term volatility, but over a long holding period (years) you should do much better in stocks."

    "The worst case scenario is that we get a deep recession and companies have to cut their dividends," Colas added. "That happened after the financial crisis, when the companies of the S&P 500 cut dividends by an aggregate of 25%. If the same were to happen again now, the real yield on the S&P would be 1.5% - which is still the same as Treasuries."

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    Do long short hedge funds perform tax-loss harvesting?

    Posted: 29 Aug 2019 12:21 AM PDT

    So Wealthfront and Betterment do tax-loss harvesting and I get why. How does it work for long short hedge funds who trade a lot more?

    submitted by /u/WePublican
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    Quant investors, are USMV, SPLV sound alternative to Market Cap weighted?

    Posted: 28 Aug 2019 10:50 PM PDT

    USMV is a bit of an odd one as it is primarily based on market cap but applies Min Variance (as I understand) of the holdings within the Large Cap index. I am not sure one could truly call this low volatility, but what do I know...

    SPLV seems to be more low vol factor as defined by academics.

    I am trying to diversify away from pure market cap and been looking at volatility, on a risk/return basis it seems to be the better performing factor. What are your thoughts on this? Is it better for the investor stick to pure market cap weighting?

    Thanks

    submitted by /u/crosmaxal
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