Stock Market - r/StockMarket June 2019 Stock Picking Contest

r/StockMarket June 2019 Stock Picking Contest
Amazon seen spreading its tentacles to 5G with T-Mobile interest
The Walt Disney Company (DIS) Technical Analysis Report
Kraft Heinz Stock Analysis Satire
Resources that help with support and resistance
May stock-market selloff marks key monthly reversal that ‘presages deeper declines’
r/StockMarket May 2019 Contest Update as of market close May 30th, 2019 (Final Day!)
Fidelity cost basis
US to Impose Tariff of Up to 25% on Mexico Over Migrant Surge
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning June 3rd, 2019
Five negative implications of Trump's trade war with Mexico
The Fake Trading Guru Bubble
Financial Statement Question
Dan Fitzpatrick looks at $SOLY and $BYND

r/StockMarket June 2019 Stock Picking Contest

Posted: 31 May 2019 04:01 AM PDT

submitted by /u/bigbear0083
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Amazon seen spreading its tentacles to 5G with T-Mobile interest

Posted: 31 May 2019 06:18 PM PDT

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sprint-corp-m-a-t-mobile-us-amazon-co/amazon-seen-spreading-its-tentacles-to-5g-with-t-mobile-interest-idUSKCN1T12IN

The ambition signaled that Amazon is looking to dive deeper into the wireless industry, strengthen its cloud services and ultimately take advantage of the next-generation 5G networks that are expected to transform major facets of technology, according to analysts.

submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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The Walt Disney Company (DIS) Technical Analysis Report

Posted: 31 May 2019 11:29 AM PDT

About The Walt Disney Company

The Walt Disney Company is a global entertainment conglomerate built by the one and only Mickey Mouse. Disney recently acquired 21st Century Fox to add to their vast portfolio of businesses. The Walt Disney Company operates ESPN, Freeform, ABC, Disney Channels, radio stations, the Disneyland Resorts in Florida and California, Disney Resort & Spa in Hawaii, Disney Vacation Club, Disneyland Paris, Disney Cruise Line, and Adventures by Disney; and manages Hong Kong Disneyland Resort and Shanghai Disney Resort.

In addition, they also own Walt Disney Pictures, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, and Touchstone, and they are in gaming, books, comics, magazines, they have their own branded merchandise, and licensed trade names (Yahoo! Finance). This company is huge and has many revolving parts, but everything centers around the media content they produce.

Read the report with charts here: https://www.brtechnicals.com/technical-analysis/stock-reports/the-walt-disney-company-dis-technical-analysis-report/

Technical Things Happen for Fundamental Reasons

The internet has changed the way media is consumed and delivered in this day and age, and Disney has been slow to adapt. Now, media is hand picked by the viewer, and it is instantaneously available. Sports highlights, T.V. shows, movies, and news are all readily available on the internet, and it is hurting the cable industry. The stock has been complacent because of the slow change in the Walt Disney business model.

DIS has moved sideways since 2014 in a symmetrical triangle pattern. The stock had been in this range for more than 4 years, as investors waited to see how Disney was going to compete in a cable cutting environment. ESPN+ was rolled out as part of a new direct-to-consumer company directive, but investors didn't seem impressed as it did not change the trajectory of the stock. And so, the stock continued in its triangle until Disney announced a large deal was taking place.

DIS eventually broke out of the long-term symmetrical triangle because of their plan to acquire 21st Century Fox. However, because of the Fed and fears of a global slowdown, the stock soon fell back into the symmetrical triangle, but found a support at the lower bound. The stock eventually recovered with the market to break out of the symmetrical triangle once again. Yet, investors were still waiting for more. They wanted to know what their plan was to compete against the disruptive internet based media companies.

Disney finally gave investors details about a new platform that competes directly with Netflix, Hulu (which they acquired a share of in their Fox acquisition), and Amazon's Prime Video. According to Disney, they will have all of their content available on their own direct to consumer platform, and will produce content specifically for the new platform (read up on their plans here). This announcement excited investors as they pushed the stock up more than 21.5% over the next three weeks. The question is, should you buy this jump?

The Charts

Two Breakouts

For the last four years DIS had been in a symmetrical triangle. The stock finally broke out of the pattern after announcing the 21st Century Fox acquisition. This breakout led to a new short-term upwards channel pattern. A subsequent breakout from the channel occurred, after DIS announced their new direct-to-consumer platform, Disney Plus. So, there are two separate breakouts to analyze. First, the symmetrical triangle breakout.

Long-Term Technical Analysis

DIS bottomed in the first quarter of 2009, and grew more than 600% before moving into the symmetrical triangle, but the stock first needed to break a resistance level that started before 1999. The breakout occurred around $30 (adjusted) and the stock peaked around $115. The stock grew $85 over the four years prior to the triangle; this fact will be important when determining a long-term target.

Symmetrical triangles are considered a continuation pattern. This means a stock is likely going to continue the previous trend, once it breaks the triangle. In this case, the previous trend was an uptrend. The triangle is formed when two trend lines are working, but in opposite directions. The top of the pattern has a downtrend line acting as a resistance, while the bottom trend line moves upwards and acts as a support. The stock bounces between these lines until it breaks past one of them. Typically, the best breakouts occur between 50-75% of a completed pattern. Anything longer tends to keep the stock sideways, especially if it slowly crawls out of the pattern through the end point.

DIS broke out of the symmetrical triangle to the upside, confirming this symmetrical triangle as a continuation pattern, and the breakout came about 75% of the way through. However, the stock hovered around the upper bound of the pattern before eventually falling back in. While DIS fell 14% to the bottom of the triangle, the S&P 500 fell 20% to its 200-week moving average during the same time period. DIS performed better during this time period which may tell us that investors still had a belief in the stock, even though their view of the economy around it was crumbling.

From a chart perspective, the breakout looks okay. DIS broke out of the pattern around 75% of the way through and to the upside, as expected. However, volume didn't provide conviction that the breakout would hold. You can tell investors were still waiting for something more before truly starting a new uptrend. This chart does provide us with a price target though. By taking the $85 prior uptrend, and adding it to the breakout price of $110, we get a long-term target of $195.

Short-Term Technical Analysis

On the short-term chart DIS was in a minor upward sloping channel as it broke out of the symmetrical triangle. The stock even fell to the channel support line during the market collapse. This marked a point where two supports were working together. When this happens, it's a strong sign the support will hold. After recovering from the drop, the stock gapped above the channel top on heavy volume when Disney released their plans for a direct-to-consumer platform.

A gap above a resistance line and a spike in volume are great signs that a stock will start a new uptrend. It shows investors have conviction and are expecting the stock to continue higher and are willing to put their money behind it. Looking at the volume on the long-term chart, we can see that volume spikes came at the beginning/end of trends (a new trend begins at the same time an old trend ends). This recent spike is another signal that a new trend is beginning.

How to Trade

First, I want to preface this by saying the stock market is in a weird place right now. One day trade war fears send the market down a percent, then the next day trade war optimism sends it back up. Next, the fears of a recession spike, and it sends the market in a tailspin, but then a strong data point tempers those fears and the market responds positively. Essentially, the market is volatile, and it is going to make trading this stock harder than if it were 2017 where volatility was nowhere to be found.

Over the long-term, I expect DIS to climb higher towards its $190-195 price target, unless a recession comes before it can get there. With this in mind, now is a good time to buy the stock if you are comfortable with volatility. DIS is right around where it closed after gapping higher in April. It is not uncommon for a stock to take a breather after such a big move, but with the surrounding pessimism and volatility, the stock may continue lower before it climbs higher again. After a breakout and gap like this, there is a 50% chance the stock falls back towards the resistance level, and tests it as a support.

Since the gap is very high, the stock is far away from the stop. My stop for this trade is the 200-week moving average. DIS has not been below this line since 2009, but has tested it as a support four times since then. If the stock were to break below its 200-week moving average it would be a significant price move, and I would be worried about the stock continuing to fall.

At the time of writing, DIS is -21.26% away from its 200-week moving average. If you purchase the stock here, you would have to be able to stomach at least a 25% loss before you finally sell. Frankly, thats a tall order. I don't want to take on a full position and watch it lose 25% before finally selling. I am used to selling after a 5-10% loss, not 25%. However, I don't want to miss on the opportunity to buy the stock if it decides to move to $195 before reaching $120. The best way to trade this may be to purchase a small allocation at this level, but add to it when the risk/reward ratio is more in our favor.

When I open a new position in the BR Technicals Technical Portfolios I like to risk 0.5% of the portfolio's total value per trade. This usually gives an allocation between 5-12%, depending on how far away the purchase price is from the stop price ((PVx0.5%)/(Purchasing Price – Stop Price)). If we are to follow those rules, than we would only be buying a 2.3% allocation to DIS. However, we don't want to risk all 0.5% on the initial trade, if we are hoping to buy another lot at a cheaper price. This changes the equation to a risk of 0.25% so that we can place a second order for the other 0.25%, but hopefully at a lower price

*DIS Purchased May 30, at $132.10 per share in the BR Technicals Technical Portfolios\*

See the charts and download the report here: https://www.brtechnicals.com/technical-analysis/stock-reports/the-walt-disney-company-dis-technical-analysis-report/

submitted by /u/BR-Technicals
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Kraft Heinz Stock Analysis Satire

Posted: 01 Jun 2019 04:31 AM PDT

https://youtu.be/MzyQsrPWuaI

I made a short Kraft Heinz Analysis with a little bit humor. Have fun

submitted by /u/CCVio
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Resources that help with support and resistance

Posted: 31 May 2019 12:39 PM PDT

https://youtu.be/tys4FdCGGT4

submitted by /u/ronavilesfx
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