• Breaking News

    Tuesday, June 4, 2019

    Apple drops on report that Justice Department has jurisdiction over potential antitrust probe Investing

    Apple drops on report that Justice Department has jurisdiction over potential antitrust probe Investing


    Apple drops on report that Justice Department has jurisdiction over potential antitrust probe

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 10:35 AM PDT

    A Cautionary Tale.

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 02:52 PM PDT

    I'm posting my (short) story to hopefully save people some money.

    I always knew I wanted to be an investor.

    When I joined the military the classes I paid most attention to were the personal finance ones. My first paycheck went right into my savings, and I built up quite a reserve during my time in. High five figures, which wasn't easy over 4 years on a junior enlisted salary let me tell you. When my buds were buying new cars, I was saving my paychecks. When they went out and partied and bought shots I stayed in and studied investing, I mean looking back I should've lived a little but that's not the point of my tale.

    I forewent 4 years of revelry and fun to pile up as much cash as I could and plan for life after I got out. I read book after book on investing, finance, portfolio theory, Warren Buffett you name it.

    After reading enough material and studying for long enough I even thought of myself as somewhat knowledgable. I'd learned DCF and was already prospecting positions while I was in.

    So I started investing in 2015 and 2016. I used principles I'd read Buffett endorsed, low PE, worked within a DCF model. I mean I really took my time with these positions. I'd come to think of myself as somewhat of a principled value investor.

    Then the worst thing that could have possibly happened to a first time investor happened: I was successful. Within 5 months my first two investments had gone up nearly 30-40% (Emerson Electric and Nucor Steel for anyone curious).

    I felt like the king of the world, like I was way smarter than I was. Finding solid companies with great moats and low PEs and worked in a few models was easy. People who invested in index funds were chumps. They weren't smart, they were lazy. I was the smart one picking individual 'value' stocks and being diligent. I even started looking up returns if I could just sustain that 40% return for the next 10 years. It was all great. If I could do it now why not in the future? Life was good.

    I could spend the next 5 paragraphs outlying all the other positions I'd initiated because they were 'cheap' and had low debt. How I was finding value where others weren't (ironic given my name, huh?). But I'll forego it all to say that I wasn't nearly as smart as I thought I was, and that my returns as a whole have been meager.

    All in all, if I'd just parked that high five figures in an index fund like Vanguard's S&P 500 fund, VOO, I'd have around $40,000 in unrealized gains. Instead I have $5,000, about 12.5% of what I could have. Not to mention the stress, self doubt, anxiety, and swings that come with individual stock picking.

    I don't tell you my (short) tale because it's interesting, or even uncommon. I tell you because I wish that I'd seen this post all those years ago when I started investing (as if that would have stopped me anyways), but hopefully you will be smarter than I was.

    Stick with index investing, be a boglehead, do the tried and true. Boring wins, and I think it will continue to win. The simple fact is that no matter how many books you read or approaches you take most of us just can't be Warren Buffett. We can't be stock pickers. So save yourself the hassle and don't be like me.

    I admit defeat. I hang up my hat. I'm not a great investor and I'm not all that smart. Thank you for taking the time to read my post.

    Big Edit: Should've put in Original Post; I'm still holding most of these positions. I haven't sold for a loss (or minor gain) yet, as I bought most with the intent to hold long term and still will do so. I'm just hanging it up as an individual stock picker. All future investments will be into index funds. It's the approach that suits my temperment and intellect (what of it I have), the best.

    submitted by /u/Mr_Find_Value
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    U.S. moving toward major antitrust probe of tech giants

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 05:40 PM PDT

    Dow drops 100 points, Nasdaq enters correction territory as regulation fears batter big tech

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 01:01 PM PDT

    What happened to stock valuations during the 2001 and 2008 crashes?

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 04:54 AM PDT

    I was looking a historical chart of P/E ratio for the overall S&P 500 index, and noticed something strange:

    https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart

    There are enormous spikes around 2001 and 2008, the times of the dot-com crash and financial crisis respectively.

    However, if you hover your cursor over those spikes to look at exact dates... you'll notice that the spikes REALLY take off AFTER the crash was well underway. The dot-com crash began in March 2001, but the P/E ratio continued to climb from 25 to 46. The financial crisis started in September 2008, but the ratio climbed from 25 to 116.

    I suppose that if companies were releasing bad earnings reports during that time, it would push the P/E ratios higher. But I believe th prices were slashing in half during that same time, so earnings reports would need to have been insanely bad.

    Is there just a bug in the way this chart was constructed, or am I missing something? Why do valuations seem to trail the bubbles and crashes?

    submitted by /u/BadMoonRosin
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    Do giants acquire start-ups out of an honest interest in what's inside them or just to signal to W.Street that they are "innovating" and the direction in which they are moving in a very public way?

    Posted: 04 Jun 2019 03:39 AM PDT

    I always stumble back on this question, mega giants especially in the US have billions in R&D, can knock at the door of public markets to get even more, yet they acquire start-ups. Are they interested in the IP at all? Why don't they just do it on their own?

    This is apparently a question which Buffet posed to Gates at the beginning of their friendship, when Buffet was convinced that tech was a dud . Specifically he asked:

    "Hey, Microsoft is a small company, IBM is this huge company, why can you do better? Why can't they beat you at the software game that you're playing?'"

    submitted by /u/AjaxFC1900
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    The gain turns to loss again but I am much clamer this time compared to last year.

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 06:46 AM PDT

    "Time in market beats timing the market" This quote talks about investment is a long-term game. But it also says you really need to learn from actually investing to be a good investor.

    Last year is the first year I invested in the stock market. I lost about 10% of my portfolio. But I didn't panic sell. It bounced back. Then this May the gain turned to loss again. The biggest difference this time is I can handle it much better with logic and math, and my stress level is much lower. I guess what I want to say is learning from your mistake and be in the market to learn is very important for new investors

    submitted by /u/xenocloud1989
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    FFR has been over IEOR for a hot second, balance sheet expansion incoming?

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 09:27 PM PDT

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IOER

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF

    Went over in March, so they made a technical adjust and cut IOER which counterintuitively would lower FFR, it did but not to a level below IOER....

    Is this should never happen and it suggest the fed is losing its ability to control the price of money, which is a no no. So i can see some kind of balance sheet expansion of some sort coming in the near future.

    What does it mean that IOER > FFR.

    It means the US is creating a dollar liquidity shortage within its own domestic banks. Now previously we've been experiencing it globally but now rooster is coming home.

    Also i don't think it's Powell's fault, i think it had to do with private liquidity getting pumped into US bonds to fund our massive fucking deficit.

    So how does it make us money, well ceteris paribus it creates a bull for the dollar and bearish for risk assets........But the fed ain't going to allow this to run for too long IE lose control of the price of money, so funnily enough to indirectly fund our massive government deficits and not cause a bull run in the dollar (which hurts exports) it'll have to inject liquidity somehow into the market, which....would cause a bearish dollar and bullish risk assets.

    Tell me I'm wrong

    submitted by /u/Ithinkthatsthepoint
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    What does "net flat" mean?

    Posted: 04 Jun 2019 01:10 AM PDT

    I just read this quote from Stan Druckenmiller: "When the Trump tweet went out, I went from 93% invested to net flat, and bought a bunch of Treasuries". ( https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-03/druckemiller-dumps-all-his-stocks-piles-treasuries-expecting-rates-hit-zero )

    What does "net flat" mean in this context? Did he actually dump all his stocks or does it mean that his long and short positions are balanced?

    submitted by /u/mannerv
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    Could a recession make a stock option play even a put worthless due to liquidity issues?

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 06:35 PM PDT

    Asking for a friend.

    submitted by /u/soulmysold
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    Advice for my 68 year old dad who knows nothing.

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 10:19 PM PDT

    My dad worked for the same company his entire life back when companies gave you stock every year and a defined benefit pension. He has about 200k in stock and receives about 5k in dividends every year.

    Obviously only holding a single stock is not great. Is there an obvious product class that I should direct him towards to diversify? How do I even go about that with a man only holds stock because he was given them his whole life. (UK)

    submitted by /u/UDLRACSTART
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    Scared for my Google

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 04:41 PM PDT

    So I just wanted to know some of your guys thoughts on Google stock. It is pretty much my first stock and so it was cool to have but now it is down a bit and I wasn't really panicked because I love Google and I never look at it's price cause I wanted to hold it forever but now there are increasing talks about trying to break Google up ( https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2019/06/03/google-justice-department-antitrust-investigation-says-report/1326787001/ ) so I am worried that the "story has changed" and might want to sell my stock and just buy the S&P for the rest of my life instead. Thoughts on Google and it's future?

    submitted by /u/PublicSociety
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    How to benefit from SpaceX?

    Posted: 04 Jun 2019 03:50 AM PDT

    For those who aim to realize their economic interest in the space industry, GTTP Fund presents USPX - a unique investment instrument in the form of smart contracts using DLT technology, which secure legal rights to SpaceX shares (one of the most successful projects of Ilon Mask).

    The company's potential is huge. SpaceX develops, manufactures and launches the latest spacecraft and carriers. The main goal is to reduce the cost of space flight and exploration of Mars. The company has developed reusable launch vehicles Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, and the Dragon spacecraft, designed to resupply on the ISS. Current developments, such as the Dragon V2 and the Hyperloop vacuum train, are in the final stages.

    USPX is designed to reflect the positive dynamics of the high-tech company, and the high demand for the tool and the limited supply will lead to an increase in prices and stimulate the growth of investor's income.

    You can learn more about the investment instrument, its strategy and how to acquire it by downloading the Raison (https://raison.ai) App for Apple Store: (https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/raison-ai/id1444995068?ls=1&mt=8&fbclid=IwAR16ki9R15t4155r59EGFLEtx26cW3bHG8ht0AXcdIdIrfcyvqvaNZgbqrM) or Google Play: (https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=ai.raison.app)

    submitted by /u/GTTP_Fund
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    Affordable Franchises

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 06:44 AM PDT

    Hi everyone!

    I am looking for a low-cost franchise, preferably in the health/food area (i.e. smooothie shop, organic fooods, that sort of thing).

    Does anyone have any reccomendations? It would be accompinied with a gym and other health and wellness businesses.

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/pervysensei420swag
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    What percent of your investable money do you have not invested right now?

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 10:43 AM PDT

    Sitting in a money market fund, etc. Do you have more or less invested in the market now than normal?

    I'm curious if people have been pulling back with some recession indicators flashing and the additional tariffs.

    I'm between 10-15% of my $ on the sidelines, which is a little more than normal for me.

    submitted by /u/Zonoc
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    What is the bond equivalent to MSCI All Country World Index?

    Posted: 04 Jun 2019 12:18 AM PDT

    Hi, I'm a bit skeptical about equities in the near-term and would like to buy a bond index ETF. However, I can only find North America heavy products. Is there a more broadly positioned ETF, similar to what MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) offers for the equities side? If not, what kind of combination would you recommend?

    submitted by /u/Sebsebzen
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    Apple drops on report that Justice Department has jurisdiction over potential antitrust probe

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 10:36 AM PDT

    Fed’s Bullard says a rate cut may be ‘warranted soon’

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 01:21 PM PDT

    Why did Apple miss music streaming? Was it too concentrated on making iTunes/music downloads work as its business model?

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 11:44 PM PDT

    Where or What is the Best Way to Get a Large Data Dump of Information about thousands of Stocks in the NYSE?

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 11:16 PM PDT

    There's 2 things I'm looking for.

    One would be if there is a place where I can straight download/compare stocks from 1000+ companies plus all the variable stats. Baiscally whatever you can get for an individual stock when you look it up but for thousands at a time.

    The other thing I'm looking for is a list of IPOs from various years.

    I've tried Google and haven't come up with the right solutions yet. Thanks for any advice and sorry if the answer is obvious and I just don't know about it.

    submitted by /u/VoodooD2
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    Historical PE Ratio

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 07:06 PM PDT

    Hi everyone. I am looking for historical PE ratio of an ETF. I have tried searching up multiple places, but I can not find it. Is there any particular place where I can search up any company to have their PE ratios? Usually I rely on ycharts, but this etf does not seem to have them.

    Anything will help. Thank you.

    submitted by /u/drdongun
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    What do you all think about the upcoming Slack Direct Listing?

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 03:12 PM PDT

    It's happening on June 20. Would you buy and hold? Conduct a little day trading? Would love to hear your thoughts.

    submitted by /u/DrZaius2015
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    Is Berkshire's buyback stance indicative of the value of their stock relative to holding cash?

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 09:05 AM PDT

    In recent years, Buffett has shied away to deploy reasonable cash when buying back his stock. In fact in the recent quarter, less than 1% of the cash was used to buyback the stocks and 0% was deployed when the stock traded at relative discount to previous period where Berkshire had issued buybacks. This makes me wonder, does Buffett value holding cash than buying his own stock? doesn't that speak loud and clear if the owners themselves don't see it reasonable to put money to work rather than simply growing it?

    submitted by /u/gymaliz
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    Index’s / Questions

    Posted: 03 Jun 2019 08:35 PM PDT

    So a few questions I couldn't find the exact answers for 1) A index fund you technically own small parts of let's say 2000 different companies. How do you own small parts of each when their share price is usually high and the index itself is like 60$ 2) Iv been looking at Index funds through Fidelity, I only have individual shares in like 3 different companies at the moment. What is the exact difference between indexes like FSKAX, ITOT, FZROX. It also shows their 10 top holdings showed by a percentage, is that the amount that index owns of those 10 or what. 3) From my understanding as well, index funds vs individual funds . Individual funds are more volatile in which you can earn a lot more money quickly than a index , but you can also lose it all quickly. So people opt for Indexes because they are safer and will most likely continue to grow because that's what the market tends to do. And if a certain type of industry fails they don't lose high. 4) Any other info that might pertain is welcome! Thank you

    submitted by /u/TriUpperEchelon
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