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    Tuesday, April 2, 2019

    Stocks - r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Apr 02, 2019

    Stocks - r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Apr 02, 2019


    r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Apr 02, 2019

    Posted: 02 Apr 2019 10:05 AM PDT

    Feel free to talk about technical analysis here; post your arguments here and not in the current post.

    Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions

    The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as "priced in"): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.

    TA can be useful on any timeframe, both short and long term.

    Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks

    If you have questions, please see the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

    Indicator - Trade Signals - Lagging Indicator - Leading Indicator - Oversold - Overbought - Divergence - Whipsaw - Resistance - Support - Breakout/Breakdown - Alerts - Trend line - Market Participants - Moving average - RSI - VWAP - MACD - ATR - Bollinger Bands - Ichimoku clouds - Methods - Trend Following - Fading - Channels - Patterns - Pivots

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Lyft shares fall again as analyst says buying the IPO here is ‘leap of faith’

    Posted: 02 Apr 2019 05:05 AM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/02/lyft-shares-fall-again-as-analyst-says-buying-the-ipo-here-is-leap-of-faith.html

    Seaport Global Securities analyst Michael Ward initiates coverage of the stock with a sell rating and a 12-month price target of $42 a share.

    "In order to justify its current market valuation, investors need to take a big leap of faith that the millennials and later generations will forego ownership of a car and opt instead for reliance on a ridesharing service," he says.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    Amazon's giant 'dystopian' delivery-drone blimp isn't real yet, but it's something the tech giant has explored

    Posted: 02 Apr 2019 01:50 PM PDT

    https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-blimp-delivery-drones-viral-video-is-fake-2019-4

    Twitter is collectively freaking out over a video showing a giant Amazon blimp deploying a swarm of delivery drones.

    The video, however, is fake, created by a Twitter user.

    The computer-generated blimp is based on a real patent Amazon filed in 2014 for a drone delivery service with an "airborne fulfillment center."

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    Walgreens shares slide as drugstore chain misses earnings estimates, lowers 2019 forecast

    Posted: 02 Apr 2019 05:03 AM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/02/walgreens-boots-alliance-q2-2019-earnings.html

    Walgreens Boots Alliance on Tuesday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that missed analysts' estimates.

    Executives from Walgreens and rival CVS Health have warned investors about challenges facing drugstores.

    The company's shares slid in premarket trading.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    Ladybaybee picks for 2019-04-02

    Posted: 02 Apr 2019 09:32 AM PDT

    Link to imgur with picks for the day, details for some picks and current state of ledger (total 8 images)

    Feedback Request

    Given my "greenness" in the area of economics, I am very much interested in reading your feedback, whether positive or negative with regards to specific stocks that you see on my picks. Some of you have done this in the past couple of weeks and it has helped me tune the machine learning engines that power my program.

    HOW I USE THIS:

    1) All the stocks identified in the table are qualified as "BUY" opportunities.

    2) I focus in the column "Success Rate(3m)" which shows the precision of the agents in the last 3 calendar months. I personally feel most comfortable with Rates 0.8 or higher.

    3) Then, I see the number in "Tx(3m)" which represents the number of transactions that the agents predicted for this stock in the last 3 months. I prefer stocks that have had at least two transactions during this period.

    4) Finally, I look at Growth(3m), if the agents have had a considerable growth (>5% in 3 months) then I follow that trade.

    5) If a row in the table is colored green then it means that stock has been on the rise today so I purchase it immediately in order to ride the wave up. On the other hand, if the row is colored red, then I wait out until very close to market close to purchase the stock and let the price bottom out before climbing up again tomorrow.

    6) After I purchase the stocks, I ALWAYS set a stop loss order at -2.5% from my buying price valid for the day. I think this is good hygiene, no matter how confident I am of my system, I still want to make sure that my losses are capped. I update this stop loss order every day.

    BACKGROUND

    I am not a financier or economist. I am electrical engineer with equal passion in artificial intelligence and financial markets. For the past 2 years I have been working on a system that would make short term predictions of stocks. The system is rather complex, I use multiple layers which include: Convolutional Neural Networks, LSTMs and Genetic Algorithms. All bulked together produce an output like in this image. The way to interpret the image is a follows: Symbol and Date columns are self explanatory, Quorum refers to autonomous agents that decide whether to BUY/NOT BUY or SELL/HOLD a stock. Each symbol has 9 agents, and the Quorum column, counts the number of agents that recommend Buy, Selling or Holding the stock. The "Not Owned" column means: if you don't own this stock then you should … The "Owned" column means: if you own this stock you should HOLD or SELL. The column "Growth(1 Year)" refers to what what has been the growth of this system of Agents in the past calendar year. The column "Tx(1Yr)" shows the number of full transactions that these agents recommended in the last calendar year. "Factor" is just the division of Growth divided by Transactions to get the average growth per transaction. Finally "Success Rate" shows how successful these agents have been in their recommendations in the past calendar year, success 1 means 100% successful, 0.5 means 50% successful, and so on.

    Many people have been curious about the actual process that the system follows, so here it is: for every symbol (600 stocks are analyzed daily), we get the full stock data (open,close,high,low,volume) for the past 4 months. Each stock is associated with another set of "lookalike" stocks as well as major ETF's. This initial dataset is run through a convolutional layer that extracts an undisclosed number of features. These features are then passed onto a recurrent neural network (LSTM) where sequences and patterns are extracted. The LSTM then spits out probabilities for the likelihood that this stock will have a positive, negative and neutral tendency in the next N days. These probabilities are then fed to a genetic evolution system (GES). This system essentially checks the predictions for the past N days and compares them with reality, following that the systems knows which predictions are performing the best. Once the system knows which stocks are being simulated the best, then the system automatically finds which of these best performing stocks have the biggest potential for the next few days. The system does not output explanations, unfortunately us humans are not capable of understanding (or visualizing) a problem of this dimensionality, for example the LSTM part alone works with over 10 million dimensions, not features but dimensions.

    You can follow my picks on twitter @ladybaybee1

    submitted by /u/ladybaybee
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    Similar site to StockTwits?

    Posted: 02 Apr 2019 11:15 AM PDT

    Can anyone recommend a site similar to StockTwits, without the idiots or even a subreddit that allows for intelligent discussion?

    Thanks

    submitted by /u/Darragh1993
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    PPA vs ITA

    Posted: 02 Apr 2019 11:14 AM PDT

    Yo whats up r/Stocks,

    Wondering if you guys had any preference between PPA & ITA. Trying to expose myself to at least one Aerospace & Defense ETF and had a hard time choosing between the two. I like the top 10 holdings for each since they have a majority of the same companies (Boeing, Northrop, Raytheon, Lockheed, Harris, General Dynamics, etc).

    PPA is trading at $58.76 and ITA is at $202.60, both have similar dividends (PPA 1.38% vs ITA 1.26%) and PE Ratios are both in the low 20's. Only possible determining factor would be the expense ratio:

    PPA (.60) ITA (.43)

    What do you guys think? Is the expense ratio difference significant enough to choose ITA? Thanks in advance, cheers!

    submitted by /u/local_sends
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    Selling and Rebuy?

    Posted: 02 Apr 2019 11:40 AM PDT

    Sorry if this is dumb or doesn't make sense as I am new to investing (24 year old, investing under 1k a year because I am still a student). Is there ever a time that you would sell all or some of your shares in a company just to buy more? Maybe do so to take some of the gained cash to put towards another stock?

    EXAMPLE: If I have a stock (Canopy) that is up over 200% in my portfolio, would it make sense to sell some to reinvest that money in a different stock or any scenario when you would do something like this? Thanks for your input.

    submitted by /u/halfaskedjobs
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    What is the play on WFC?

    Posted: 02 Apr 2019 08:13 AM PDT

    I opened a position at about $50 and have averaged down to a $49.17 cost basis. How is everyone playing WFC? I know some people are adamant to avoid it but I personally think that with a new CEO things will turn around in the next couple years. Paying a 3.75% yield right now with buybacks on heavy, I think EPS is bound to go up. Plus if everything goes to shit, the government is bound to bail them out lol. Also, I don't really see any other areas to deploy capital because real estate is getting stupid where numbers don't work in the areas I invest. Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/lifetimelurker5
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    Swing Trade On BA

    Posted: 02 Apr 2019 07:21 AM PDT

    Thinking about entering BA and going long with a $400 price target. What do you guys think about this trade? I like to get others opinions before entering certain trades to make sure I'm not missing anything. Thanks guys!

    submitted by /u/Hoister00
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    Has there ever been an IPO that didn't initially drop?

    Posted: 02 Apr 2019 09:09 AM PDT

    I know most companies go public for cash but people still invest. Has there ever been one that pulled off not losing money initially though?

    submitted by /u/Wolus10
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    Looking for some good Canadian cannabis stocks. I’ve been following pure global cannabis and FSD pharm. Any insights?

    Posted: 02 Apr 2019 08:13 AM PDT

    I know FSD pharma bought the old kraft plant in Cobourg which is a very sizeable location. And pure was granted license in February by government for extraction.

    submitted by /u/codyharv
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    r/Stocks Daily Discussion Tuesday - Apr 02, 2019

    Posted: 02 Apr 2019 05:06 AM PDT

    These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday.

    Some helpful links:

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Does how you personally feel about a company affect whether or not you'll invest in it even though you know it's fundamentally a good company to invest in.

    Posted: 02 Apr 2019 03:23 AM PDT

    Here's an example. Let's say you don't like how Google censors political speech and manipulates search results in order to push a particular political agenda. However, you are aware that Google makes good money and you'd likely get a good return on your investment. Given that, would still invest in Google even if you were personally against what they're doing.

    Other examples - Facebook (political censorship), Twitter (political censorship), Nike (pushing an ideological agenda), Disney (pushing an ideological agenda in their films).

    I'm not trying to get political. I'm just wondering how others deal with this dilemma. Part of me is like "Google sucks. They censor political speech" and another part of me is like, but "it'll make you money."

    submitted by /u/chez_blunts
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    NSF takeover Provident

    Posted: 02 Apr 2019 02:20 AM PDT

    https://www.insidermedia.com/insider/yorkshire/nsf-moves-closer-to-provident-financial-takeover

    I have 9 shares and I am down £120 at the moment.
    They're offering 8.88 shares for every share held.
    Is this good? Would this mean I would have about 79 shares if I accept?
    How much would each share be worth though?

    submitted by /u/daleweeksphoto
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    Blackberry thoughts ??

    Posted: 01 Apr 2019 07:53 PM PDT

    How do you feel about rebranded blackberry?

    submitted by /u/YankeYest
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    Can anyone who is proficient in stocks/filings let me know what this means?

    Posted: 01 Apr 2019 06:11 PM PDT

    https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/USOTC/blue-sphere-corp-BLSP/stock-news/79601618/termination-of-registration-of-a-class-of-security

    I bought into these guys about 6 months back, dumped $6000 into it on a run. It began to dilute heavy and I never pulled the trigger on selling and I ended up bagholding at a 99% loss. Even averaged down at .001 and still lost most of that. Big yikes, and I learned a lot from this one.

    Today, this news hit and I can't really comprehend what it means for the stock. Are all of my shares just going to be wiped out into non-existence after being diluted to shit? How can that be legal when the company is still afloat? They just put out PR a few days ago about a new plant they're trying to open up

    submitted by /u/CrashKeyss
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    Help solve this mystery

    Posted: 01 Apr 2019 08:54 PM PDT

    So I currently have the stock New Age beverages (NBEV)and they have been growing exponentially over the last few years releasing new products and expanding their distribution network I bought at 3:25 and the prices are hovering around five dollars a Share I don't know why we aren't getting any traction even though the last quarterly reports are in could someone give me their thoughts on the stock and or if I should sell, Or Buy I think it's gonna be fantastic please let me know thank you!

    submitted by /u/PresidentBrown
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    MarketWatch Game

    Posted: 01 Apr 2019 08:16 PM PDT

    Hello, my economics class recently started a market watch game and I invested in a couple companies as well as Disney what are some good companies to invest in right now. The game is only lasting a month and we have to spend at least $5000 on a stock and the max is $50000 on a stock. Any tips?

    submitted by /u/Payrolll4658
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