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    Thursday, April 4, 2019

    Stocks - r/Stocks Options Trading Thursday - Apr 04, 2019

    Stocks - r/Stocks Options Trading Thursday - Apr 04, 2019


    r/Stocks Options Trading Thursday - Apr 04, 2019

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 10:05 AM PDT

    Feel free to talk about options you have or ask questions on options; post your arguments against stock options here and not in the current post.

    • Call option Investopedia video basically a call option allows you to buy 100 shares of a stock at a certain price (strike price), but without the obligation to buy
    • Put option Investopedia video a put option allows you to sell 100 shares of a stock at a certain price (strike price), but without the obligation to sell

    See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

    Call option - Put option - Exercising an option - Strike price - ITM - OTM - ATM - Long options - Short options - Combo - Debit - Credit or Premium - Covered call - Naked - Debit call spread - Credit call spread - Strangle - Iron condor - Vertical debit spreads - Iron Fly

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is Theta," then google "investopedia theta" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Target raises its minimum wage to $13 an hour, with goal of reaching $15 by end of 2020

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 05:04 AM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/04/target-raises-its-minimum-wage-to-13-an-hour-aims-for-15-by-2020.html

    Target is increasing its minimum hourly wage by a dollar to $13 in June.

    The increase is part of a goal to hit $15 an hour by the end of 2020.

    Target's new $13 an hour minimum is well above the federal minimum $7.25, which was last increased in 2009.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    Tesla ships 63,000 vehicles in Q1, produced 77,100

    Posted: 03 Apr 2019 05:19 PM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/04/tesla-q1-2019-production-and-delivery-numbers.html

    Looks like Tesla car production has increased more than expected.

    Edited: Update from Tesla Website

    "Deliveries were approximately 63,000 vehicles, which was 110% more than the same quarter last year, but 31% less than last quarter. This included approximately 50,900 Model 3 and 12,100 Model S and X.

    Due to a massive increase in deliveries in Europe and China, which at times exceeded 5x that of prior peak delivery levels, and many challenges encountered for the first time, we had only delivered half of the entire quarter's numbers by March 21, ten days before end of quarter. This caused a large number of vehicle deliveries to shift to the second quarter. At the end of the first quarter, approximately 10,600 vehicles were in transit to customers globally." - from Tesla Website

    submitted by /u/AccurateMachine
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    Calculating Cost Basis for Time Warner (bought in 2002/2003) after AT&T Acquisition

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 01:34 PM PDT

    Trying to do my taxes (first time!) and my Cost Basis is reported as $0 for 2 lots of Time Warner I purchased in 02 and 03, and all the reinvested dividends until 2011. Tried calculating it on my own but it's driving me crazy!

    On 3/30/09 there was a reverse split of 30,000 to 13,536. On 6/9/14, there was a split of 1,000 to 1,043. So I took the proceeds reported on my 1099-B ($889 per lot) and divided it by the share price on 6/15/18 when it was sold (98.77). So 9 shares. Then I divided 9 by 1.043 ('14) and then by 0.4512 ('09). Multiplied it by the share price on the purchase dates (26.40 in '02, 16.36 in '03) I thought that was it.

    Then I found an old statement from '12 that says my cost basis is way higher than my calculations (actually shows a loss for one of them). And the reinvested dividends are collected in that statement as much higher too.

    Long story short .... help me?

    submitted by /u/haltiamreptar1222
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    Citron once again goes after SHOP, putting its 12 month price target at $100

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 09:48 AM PDT

    Good buying opportunity? Id like to see it fall to $160-170 level so I can buy in again, because Citron is dumb

    submitted by /u/WeakPressure1
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    Amazon wants to launch thousands of satellites so it can offer broadband internet from space

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 09:46 AM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/04/amazon-project-kuiper-broadband-internet-small-satellite-network.html

    "Project Kuiper" is Amazon's plan to launch 3,236 satellites to build a network to provide global high-speed internet.

    The move represents the latest space ambition from Jeff Bezos.

    There's a race among several major players to build a next-generation broadband network in space, including Elon Musk's SpaceX and SoftBank-backed OneWeb.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    What percentage of your trading accounts are sitting in cash?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 07:32 AM PDT

    If it's greater than 20%, why are holding back and what indicators are you waiting for?

    submitted by /u/portajohnjackoff
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    Should I cash out now?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 07:26 AM PDT

    I was caught in the FB and NVDA crash and doubled down, finally turned slightly positive this month. Should I cash out the money I averaged down? I'm in fear if the China trade talk doesn't work out this time, there will be another dip, and I won't have enough cash if that happens.

    submitted by /u/girafferocks
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    RRSP Investments

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 12:22 PM PDT

    Currently at work I have a matching program where if I put 5% in my employer puts in 5%. I've been employed here for 5 years and have almost 100k. I recently transferred out 50k and bought into some private land development deals through Greybrook. The other 50kish I want to transfer into a separate RRSP and start investing into ETFs and such as I know mutual funds kill me on fees. I've heard about things like wealth simple where its mostly all automated. Does anyone have any advice on them or other robo advisers? I want to continue the matching program through my employer but do plan on transferring the funds from the work benefit account into my own personal RRSP so I was just going to switch my selected funds to something higher risk since I'll only have a small amount in there at a time and since it won't be my true retirement savings account if things go south and I'm in the red, I wont have an issue just letting it sit in there until for a few years.

    If it matters or makes any difference I do have a pension through work but it has to stay in my great west life work account under the CONTINUUM 2055 (PSG) Fund.

    I guess rather than ranting I'm asking are robo advisers worthwhile?

    submitted by /u/Suyneej
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    Thoughts on YRIV

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 12:13 PM PDT

    It had taken off the last couple days but it has a history or making sizable runs. Do u think it has any left in the tank?

    submitted by /u/nickguisti
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    Help with mutual fund decision

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 11:27 AM PDT

    I want to invest in a mutual fund that tracks the S&P500 and these are what I'm looking into. Thoughts on these?

    $NEIAX $BSPAX $OGEAX $WFILX

    Thank you

    submitted by /u/sandvvorm
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    Global stocks pause, seeking additional US-China trade progress for next leg up, ahead of US jobs report tomorrow

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 04:55 AM PDT

    US Stocks Preview Ahead of the Open

    • Global markets are mixed today and US stocks index futures are flat with front-month Dow Jones minis -0.01%, S&P 500 minis -0.06% and Nasdaq 100 minis -0.14%
    • President Trump is set to meet Vice-Premier Liu He as trade negotiations enter the final phase, with hopes for a final deal that could be signed by President Trump and President XI at a summit in the near future
    • JP Morgan (JPM) CEO James Dimon said the volatility investors saw in the fourth quarter is a sign of what's to come, in a letter to shareholders that had a noticable negative outlook to it
    • Check out these Tech Top Picks: Forget the FANGs, THESE Titans of Techs are what your portfolio NEEDS NOW!
    • Oil remains well bid again today, with WTI crude rising +0.40%, trading at $62.70
    • German factory orders fell 4.2% in February, coming much worse than the 0.3% growth expected
    • Italy is slashing its growth forecast to just 0.1% for the coming year while increasing the expected budget deficit to between 2.3% and 2.4% of GDP
    • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 13.48 after closing at 13.74 yesterday
    • SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY) April 5 OTM Calls, iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) April 5 Calls and iShares Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) April 17 OTM Calls are the most actively traded options contracts in US pre-market trading this morning.
    • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -2.51 basis points to 2.499%
    • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.29 basis points to 0.19%
    • WTI Crude is currently little changed -0.19% to USD$62.46/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread little changed USD$0.12 to USD$6.66/bbl
    • Gold is currently little changed 0.11% to USD$1291.34/oz

    Stocks Trending in the News

    • Blackstone Group (BX) has raised $22 billion for its flagship buyout fund and it is not done. Analysts expect Blackstone could raise $25 billion for the fund amid a strong fundraising environment. Blackstone has not yet set a limit on the pool but is seeking to raise a total of $100 billion this year. $566 billion was raised by private equity funds in 2017 with $432 billion raised last year. Blackstone Group is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Boeing's (BA) flight control system was to blame for the crash of the most recent 737 Max, according to a preliminary report from Ethiopian investigators. The report says pilots followed Boeing's emergency procedures but were unable to save the jet. The report puts the spotlight on Boeing to come up with a fix. Press reports are that a fix from Boeing should come shortly. Boeing is rated "Top Buy" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Neutral" in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas
    • Caterpillar (CAT) was downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank today. Deutsche cut Caterpillar's price target significantly, to $128 from $152. Deutsche said it is "becoming increasingly clear" that Caterpillar's backlog growth is about to turn negative, an ominous sign. Caterpillar faces the prospect of collapsing global growth, Deutsche warns. The Chinese land cycle is rolling over and there is a glut of equipment in the US. Caterpillar is rated is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Neutral" in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas
    • Constellation Brands (STZ) is selling a group of wine brands to E&J Gallo. Constellation is selling about 30 brands to Gallo, all of which sell for less than $11. The brands being sold represented about 40% of Constellation's wine sales. Constellation has been looking to sell its low margin brands after reporting weak earnings in the last quarter. Constellation Brands is rated "Attractive" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Attractive" in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas
    • Facebook (FB) data is still being found online. Cybersecurity firm UpGuard found a large stash of Facebook user data stored on Amazon's (AMZN) cloud service. UpGuard found a digital platform that used the Facebook data has personal information of 540 million Facebook users in plain sight for anyone who knew how to look closely, according to a Bloomberg report. Facebook has been able to remove the data in each case but the fact that they are there in the first place concerns security specialists. Facebook is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Attractive" in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas. Amazon is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Top Buy" in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • PG&E (PCG) has chosen the head of the Tennessee Valley Authority as its next CEO. Bill Johnson will take over as its new CEO and a completely new board will be installed. PG&E is facing $30 billion in liabilities and is trying to steer out of bankruptcy. Mr Johnson is being chosen for his safety and operational expertise. PG&E is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Tesla (TSLA) has sold almost as many cars as Porsche (DB:PAH3) in its second month of sales in Germany. Tesla sold 2,367 cars in March in Germany while Porsche sold 2,744. Porsche saw a 9% sales drop due to new emissions standards while Tesla saw a five-fold jump from its first month to second. Tesla is rated "Top Short" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Neutral" in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas. Porsche is rated "Unattractive" in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Verizon (VZ) launched the 5G era in the US Wednesday, launching a week ahead of schedule in Chicago and Minneapolis. South Korea also launched its 5G and it is not clear who was first. Verizon launched first as a show of technological prowess. 5G networks can provide connections that are up to 100 times faster than present connections. Verizon is rated "Attractive" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Top Buy" in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas

    International Stock Markets Recap

    • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.28%, the FTSE 100 is down -0.52%, the DAX has risen +0.15%, and the CAC 40 is down -0.24%
    • Chemicals (-0.17%), Financial Services (-0.3%), and Basic Resources (-0.63%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
    • Health Care (-0.38%), Food & Beverage (-0.14%), and Personal & Household Goods (-0.02%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
    • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.47x
    • 248 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 11 stocks are at 4-week lows
    • 126 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 3 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
    • The Nikkei 225 finished up +0.05%, the Hang Seng ended down -0.17%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined -0.11%, and the CSI 300 was +1%
    • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 0.7x
    • 53 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 15 stocks reached 4-week lows
    • 12 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 3 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
    • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 0.85x
    • 17 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 1 stocks reached 4-week lows
    • 14 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
    submitted by /u/QuantalyticsResearch
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    For you who were around, how did the 08 crash affect the rest of the world? I.e china market etc

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 09:28 AM PDT

    Im just wondering how the rest of the worlds economy reacted. They must go "worse" because US is buying and trading alot right?

    submitted by /u/pabbseven
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    PIXY has hit $1

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 08:48 AM PDT

    At this level, I think I am going to open a small speculative position. The business model seems sound and they provide a valuable service. Their clients seem to agree judging from their growth rate. Sure, they spend a lot - but that's normal for a fast growing company - and they'll probably have to raise cash soon but that seems more than priced in. In fact it seems to me that it is being unfairly beaten down at this point. Lots of fear going around but at such a low valuation, reassuring news could easily send the stock back into the $2s.

    What do you guys think? Worth a gamble?

    submitted by /u/o0oNamikaze
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    Does GLUU have more room for growth?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 08:41 AM PDT

    Mobile gaming seems to be booming especially with Apple turning their focus more on mobile gaming too. Do you guys see more room for growth with GLUU? Tap Tap Baseball is pretty addicting.

    submitted by /u/imperba
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    Any news about the sudden drop in Visa and MasterCard?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 08:30 AM PDT

    No a huge drop, but seems like this whole sector is down today for some reason...

    submitted by /u/etienneclerc1997
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    Confusion on Altaba's Dissolution.

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 07:58 AM PDT

    Please forgive this mindbogglingly insipid question.

    I inherited a good chunk of Altaba shares when my father passed so I never really knew about the company and their ties to Alibaba (BABA). Anyway, I see now that a dissolution will be happening starting in Q4 and I have no idea what that actually entails.

    Do I have to actively do something? I've held these shares now for several years only selling small chunks at a time. Do I need to sell the remaining shares I have, or is this automatic where one day I log into my Ameritrade account to see my position empty on Altaba?

    Lastly, what does mean for taxes? If someone bought $AABA in the last year and the company goes tits up, do they still pay higher taxes since it wasn't a long term hold?

    submitted by /u/AntipodalBurrito
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    M&A question

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 07:19 AM PDT

    Is there ever a scenario when a company would do a secondary share issuance prior to getting acquired? In what cases would an equity raise prior to the sale of the company make sense? Thanks in advance for any guidance and/or words of wisdom!

    submitted by /u/MikeNilsen57
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    Question about swing trading tool

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 07:07 AM PDT

    Good day. I'm new to market and desperately want to find a tool to support my swinging strategy.

    The strategy will be simply buy and sell, and the time span can be months. And I would like to be able to monitor a very long list of candidates and don't need to spend time to check the list every day, or don't need to check actively.

    So ideally the tool I'm looking for is that put the high and low watermark of a prospect, and simply inform me if the price exceed.

    Does there any tool have provide something similar? I'm using the banks trading system which is pretty simple atm.

    Thank you.

    submitted by /u/dmonav
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    Changing purchasing price?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 06:57 AM PDT

    Is it normal for the purchase price of a stock you owned to change after a day? I ask because I shorted a certain stock with a purchase price of 29.08 yesterday but the purchase price today is set at 28.73. There were multiple orders as listed:

    200 shares @28.72

    100 shares @29.25

    50 shares @29.54

    50 shares@29.72

    I feel as if I have forgotten to consider something that would explain this, can anyone shed some light on the issue?

    submitted by /u/Aaron4424
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    Ladybaybee recommended stock picks 2019-04-04

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 09:02 AM PDT

    Link to imgur with picks, details of picks and current state of ledger (5 images)

    **HOW I USE THIS:**

    1) All the stocks identified in the table are qualified as "BUY" opportunities.

    2) I focus in the column "Success Rate(3m)" which shows the precision of the agents in the last 3 calendar months. I personally feel most comfortable with Rates 0.8 or higher.

    3) Then, I see the number in "Tx(3m)" which represents the number of transactions that the agents predicted for this stock in the last 3 months. I prefer stocks that have had at least two transactions during this period.

    4) Finally, I look at Growth(3m), if the agents have had a considerable growth (>5% in 3 months) then I follow that trade.

    5) If a row in the table is colored green then it means that stock has been on the rise today so I purchase it immediately in order to ride the wave up. On the other hand, if the row is colored red, then I wait out until very close to market close to purchase the stock and let the price bottom out before climbing up again tomorrow.

    6) After I purchase the stocks, I ALWAYS set a stop loss order at -2.5% from my buying price valid for the day. I think this is good hygiene, no matter how confident I am of my system, I still want to make sure that my losses are capped. I update this stop loss order every day.

    **BACKGROUND**

    I am not a financier or economist. I am electrical engineer with equal passion in artificial intelligence and financial markets. For the past 2 years I have been working on a system that would make short term predictions of stocks. The system is rather complex, I use multiple layers which include: Convolutional Neural Networks, LSTMs and Genetic Algorithms. All bulked together produce an output like in this image. The way to interpret the image is a follows: Symbol and Date columns are self explanatory, Quorum refers to autonomous agents that decide whether to BUY/NOT BUY or SELL/HOLD a stock. Each symbol has 9 agents, and the Quorum column, counts the number of agents that recommend Buy, Selling or Holding the stock. The "Not Owned" column means: if you don't own this stock then you should … The "Owned" column means: if you own this stock you should HOLD or SELL. The column "Growth(1 Year)" refers to what what has been the growth of this system of Agents in the past calendar year. The column "Tx(1Yr)" shows the number of full transactions that these agents recommended in the last calendar year. "Factor" is just the division of Growth divided by Transactions to get the average growth per transaction. Finally "Success Rate" shows how successful these agents have been in their recommendations in the past calendar year, success 1 means 100% successful, 0.5 means 50% successful, and so on.

    Many people have been curious about the actual process that the system follows, so here it is: for every symbol (600 stocks are analyzed daily), we get the full stock data (open,close,high,low,volume) for the past 4 months. Each stock is associated with another set of "lookalike" stocks as well as major ETF's. This initial dataset is run through a convolutional layer that extracts an undisclosed number of features. These features are then passed onto a recurrent neural network (LSTM) where sequences and patterns are extracted. The LSTM then spits out probabilities for the likelihood that this stock will have a positive, negative and neutral tendency in the next N days. These probabilities are then fed to a genetic evolution system (GES). This system essentially checks the predictions for the past N days and compares them with reality, following that the systems knows which predictions are performing the best. Once the system knows which stocks are being simulated the best, then the system automatically finds which of these best performing stocks have the biggest potential for the next few days. The system does not output explanations, unfortunately us humans are not capable of understanding (or visualizing) a problem of this dimensionality, for example the LSTM part alone works with over 10 million dimensions, not features but dimensions.

    You can follow my picks on twitter @ladybaybee1

    submitted by /u/ladybaybee
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    r/Stocks Daily Discussion Thursday - Apr 04, 2019

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 05:07 AM PDT

    These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday.

    Some helpful links:

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Options Value Question

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 04:42 AM PDT

    On 2/4/19, I bought a MSFT $80 call expiring 1/15/2021. The breakeven is $110.28. It is currently valued at $4303. If I were to buy a $50 call right now, with the same expiry and a breakeven of $120.10, it would cost $7010. My question is, if the $80 call I already have has a lower breakeven and exactly the same expiry date, why is the $50 call worth so much more? Is it just a matter of decay? Or will it eventually go up in value and be worth more over time?

    submitted by /u/KarlMarxBlessUp
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    Constellation Brands (STZ)

    Posted: 03 Apr 2019 02:57 PM PDT

    The deal with Gallo is announced. 30 brands of wine and multiple facilities are sold off. Deals is set to finalize in two months. https://www.wsj.com/articles/constellation-to-sell-several-wine-brands-to-gallo-in-1-7-billion-deal-11554325328

    submitted by /u/Fat2FitKeto
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