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    Friday, January 26, 2018

    Stock trading app Robinhood to launch bitcoin, ethereum trading in five states Investing

    Stock trading app Robinhood to launch bitcoin, ethereum trading in five states Investing


    Stock trading app Robinhood to launch bitcoin, ethereum trading in five states

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 08:14 AM PST

    Customers in California, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana and New Hampshire will be able to trade bitcoin and ethereum through the app beginning in February, Robinhood announced Thursday. In the meantime, all customers can now track prices and receive alerts for 16 cryptocurrencies on the app.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/stock-trading-app-robinhood-to-roll-out-bitcoin-ethereum-trading.html

    submitted by /u/vlc_seller
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    Discussion on the place bonds have in a 20/30 yr old portfolio in 2018

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 10:05 PM PST

    I want to discuss bonds and reasons to won them in 2018. I hope this helps fix errors in my understanding on owning bonds (either directly or through funds) in an environment with low interest rates that are expected to go higher. Below is my write up on how I understand the subject. Let me know where my reasoning isn't right.

    The investment community, including this sub, has long debated on how much of the portfolio should be equities vs. bonds and alternatives.

    I get the conventional wisdom that equities will give you the best return over the long term. The trade-off of course is higher volatility. This makes sense since economic growth in our societies is driven by firms so it makes sense that by owning stock in the firm you are reaping its economic benefit.

    Bonds are understood as having a place in a portfolio for protection in times when the economy isn't booming. The reasoning is a little less obvious since it has to do with the inverse relationship between interest rates and prices. In bad economic environments interest rates drop which pushes bond prices higher. I understand this as being the primary argument for holding bonds in a portfolio as it would offset the losses in equities.

    I believe a secondary argument for using them is because your principal, as long as you hold them until maturity is safe (gov bonds), and you are earning income via interest during the duration. Ofcourse, in booming economic markets interest rates are expected to rise to curb inflation and have an adverse effect on bonds. So you get a 2 fold loss, one that is obvious and what that is not so obvious. The obvious loss is the drop in price due to interest rates going up and the less obvious loss is the opportunity cost of not being in an asset that does well in inflationary periods - stocks.

    The general wisdom shared on this sub and other investing related subs is - if you want to maximize growth and you are young have a 100% equity portfolio. If you want to decrease the volatility then add bonds. I think even Benjamin Graham recommended having 20 - 30% in bonds and no more and no less than 20 (I could be wrong about this). Buffet ahas also suggest equities as being the dominant part of anyone's portfolio. I've heard from many other well known investors as well that they recommend the same for the simple reason that if you believe in long term positive economic growth then equities will outperform fixed income assets by a large margin.

    There are others like Ray Dalio and Harry Browne who actually recommend a significant portion of the portfolio being bonds vs. stocks. Tony Robbins claims that Dalio recommended that 30% allocation in stocks vs. 55 % allocation in bonds for the average investor and that would give around the same return as the market (s&p 500) with limited downside in downturns. I find this hard digest but am openminded to change my thinking. However, I don't get the reasoning. How can a portfolio that is bond heavy perform just as well as an S&P? This contradicts my understanding that you buy bonds to limit your volatility with the understanding that you are foregoing upside.

    Earlier this week Dalio at Davos said he is certain (like everyone) that the 30 yr bull market in bonds is over and bonds aren't the place to be in the coming years. This statement contradicts the principle of his "all-weather fund" that is so bond heavy.

    I don't own any bonds in my portfolio. My investments are 100% in equities. The rest of my liquid capital is in cash. I could invest a portion of that cash I don't immediately need in bonds or a bond portfolio but I don't understand why I should well enough.

    My understanding is that if I buy a bond fund for instance it will likely loose value as interest rates are poised to rise in the coming years. I get that cash loses value due to inflation but wouldn't owning bonds also cause a loss of value due to rising rates? The only reason then to own bonds would be to negate the effects of market volatility or loss in an equity downturn. But if my equity investments are for the 20-30 year horizon and I will always have cash then why would I buy bonds now? Perhaps I'd buy bonds in a high interest rate environment some time in the future.

    Am I missing something? Please correct me if my understanding is off.

    Also - If you could point me to resources to better my understanding of this subject please share.

    submitted by /u/nowrongturns
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    Tesla Employees Say Gigafactory Problems Worse Than Known

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 11:48 AM PST

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/tesla-employees-say-gigafactory-problems-worse-than-known.html

    "Tesla employees say the company was making batteries for its Model 3 vehicles partly by hand as recently as mid-December. Employees also said that quality control workers were not experienced, and two said that some batteries are leaving the factory with a potentially serious defect, a claim that Tesla vigorously denies."

    "Many of the company's quality control workers are relatively inexperienced, make sloppy calculations and don't know when they're looking at flaws, according to several current and former employees. They said many quality inspectors were temp-to-hire workers with no automotive experience who Tesla hired via a staffing agency.

    Tesla acknowledged the relative inexperience of some employees, but said new hires involved in battery production receive "extensive training, including safety training."

    Two current engineers told CNBC that they are concerned some of the batteries being shipped do not have the minimum gap required between lithium ion cells. These engineers warned that this "touching cells" flaw could cause batteries to short out or, in worse cases, catch fire.

    These engineers said they raised the issue internally, but their concerns were shrugged off by managers."

    submitted by /u/dvdmovie1
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    Intel handily beats on Q4 earnings, ups dividend 10%

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 01:08 PM PST

    Intel earnings: $1.08 per share, vs expected EPS of 86 cents

    $INTC

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/intel-earnings-q4-2017.html

    submitted by /u/Ironicalogical
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    Larry Fink (Blackrock CEO): The world is awash in uninvested cash

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 04:42 AM PST

    On Bloomberg he mentioned that, despite strong equity markets over the last few years, there are still record amounts held in cash rather than invested in financial assets.

    He mentioned about 40% of China savings are in cash. Over 70% (!!) for France.

    Obviously he's talking his own book, because Blackrock wants to manage that money. But interesting nevertheless

    submitted by /u/nrps400
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    Starbucks slides 4% on lower than expected revenues

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 01:28 PM PST

    earned an adjusted $0.65 cents per share — 14% above the expected $0.57 — on revenues of $6.073 billion. Analysts had expected $6.2 billion.

    Same-store sales, a metric that Wall Street is paying careful attention to as the 27,000+ store chain nears maximum expansion in the US, was up 2%. The company had forecast 3-5% growth this year.

    quote

    submitted by /u/wanmoar
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    (new to investing) when a stock like NFLX is up 25% in a few days, how on earth can it go any higher? isn't a sell off a good idea? Maybe buying back in after 1 week?

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 07:42 PM PST

    Overwhelming hate of Crypto

    Posted: 26 Jan 2018 03:32 AM PST

    Legitimate question here...

    Why are Cryptocurrencies so hated in this subreddit? Any positive Cryptocurrency view is repeatedly down-voted and hated on. I am really trying to understand why this is so. I come here for somewhat reliable news and quick information, yet there is such a strong hatred of anything to do with cryptocurrencies, that I find I can't trust the majority of the information posted here because of that. It's like I'm reading CNN, I'm not sure what I can trust, and what I can't.

    submitted by /u/applejackxz
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    SEC warns against public companies adding blockchain to their name

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 11:06 AM PST

    https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/25/sec-warns-against-public-companies-adding-blockchain-to-their-name/

    The comments are from a speech given on the 22nd by SEC Chairman Jay Clayton. (transcript here: https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/speech-clayton-012218) I didn't see any mention of it (possibly missed it). Potential SEC investigations into the Long Island Iced Tea Block Chains and Kodak's of the market incoming?

    "First, and most disturbing to me, there are ICOs where the lawyers involved appear to be, on the one hand, assisting promoters in structuring offerings of products that have many of the key features of a securities offering, but call it an "ICO," which sounds pretty close to an "IPO." On the other hand, those lawyers claim the products are not securities, and the promoters proceed without compliance with the securities laws, which deprives investors of the substantive and procedural investor protection requirements of our securities laws."

    "...I have instructed the SEC staff to be on high alert for approaches to ICOs that may be contrary to the spirit of our securities laws and the professional obligations of the U.S. securities bar."

    "The SEC is looking closely at the disclosures of public companies that shift their business models to capitalize on the perceived promise of distributed ledger technology and whether the disclosures comply with the securities laws, particularly in the case of an offering."

    submitted by /u/TheTahoe
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    I own my own (very) small company. Is there any benefit to trying to set up a 401k?

    Posted: 26 Jan 2018 12:34 AM PST

    I am a 50 percent owner in a small company. This year I managed to start maxing my ROTH contribution each month. I now have a little extra each month. If I understand correctly I could move the extra into a ROTH in my wife's name (stay at home mom).

    However, I don't know anything about 401k's. From what I know, the benefit of the 401k would really be that the employer would typically match deposits. In this case, however, I am also the employer, so it doesn't really matter. It's my money being used either way.

    So are there any substantive benefits to trying to set up a 401k for my business partner, myself, and potentially our few employees? Or should I just push any extra to a Wife's ROTH?

    Thanks

    submitted by /u/ElderScrolls
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    Netflix valuation has gone from mad to stupid

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 12:45 PM PST

    Back of the envelope valuations presented to justify the valuation require massive subscription growth (typically 50% over next 5 years) as well as a big increase in margins (op margin from 5% to 30%+).

    Problem is you cant have both.

    These forecasts seem incredibly optimistic for a streaming service.

    There are plenty of competitors could make life difficult for Netflix.

    Content could provide something resembling a defendable moat but if you want global expansion you will have to provide for local tastes and languages thereby increasing costs significantly.

    Am I missing something?

    This post is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or derivative. Stocks are not suitable for all investors. Please do your own research.

    submitted by /u/InterestingNews1
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    30 Stock Portfolio

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 10:24 PM PST

    Was reading a piece on the 'Illusion of Diversification', and it references an old study about a 30 stock portfolio that is good for reducing one's risk exposure.

    The write-up referencing the study however argues against holding 30 stocks (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/11/illusion-of-diversification.asp)

    Where do you draw the line for yourself? What's your comfortable portfolio size.

    submitted by /u/kahveamori
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    Study shows investors lose, insiders win when IPOs involve analysts. The study found that information from these reports is more optimistic, less informative and less accurate, resulting in losses for investors but benefiting investment banks

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 11:35 AM PST

    Competition brewing in e-reader category

    Posted: 26 Jan 2018 03:41 AM PST

    Can google and Walmart beat Amazon on its own turf?

    I find it interesting that Amazon, which typically took existing technology and tried to improve upon it (Alexa, e-commerce, shipping, prime video etc.) is now facing the same challenge from competitors...

    Walmart and Google have both announced that they will release e-readers this year. Weird part is that amazon completely dominates the segment, owning 3 large players in the book world on top of having amazon campus stores and the largest online book store.... did I mention that amazon basically gives away the fire tablet which can double as an e-reader?

    submitted by /u/Raleigh_Noles
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    An (Institutional) Investor’s Take on Cryptoassets (John Pfeffer former KKR partner - freaking excellent)

    Posted: 26 Jan 2018 03:27 AM PST

    It's that time of the year. This semester I'll be Inversing Jim Cramer on StockTrak. What are some of his most recent blunders?

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 08:49 PM PST

    Trying to add some fun to this project. I think being able to analyze why Cramer is wrong/right throughout this year will provide much entertainment and knowledge for beginners and the like. As most of you know, it's not how much you gain in dollars, but in actual analysis and knowledge. Thanks guys, make some bread.

    submitted by /u/Jared_Chambers
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    What company?

    Posted: 26 Jan 2018 02:37 AM PST

    I have an extra 6k that I would like to invest, what company should I put it in? I would be holding onto it for a long time Options: facebook, apple, alibaba....

    submitted by /u/wooodshop
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    Airbnb turns $100 million profit in 2017, prepares for 2018 IPO.

    Posted: 26 Jan 2018 02:23 AM PST

    Serious question - Expectations as to how markets would react if the Mueller/Trump situation blows up?

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 10:15 PM PST

    If Trump fires Mueller, or if it really starts looking like Mueller will indict Trump how this effect US markets? Will they continue to grow as they have been over the past 15 months? Are there plans that people have in case these situations do arise, are they more reactionary plans or proactive?

    If there is say a 33% chance that either of those two situations and the odds don't look to be decreasing does that warrant redistribution your portfolio in case something does occur? Or is it not worth worrying about because the likelihood of something actually happening so low that it would be a mistake to take action on? Theoretically if either were to happen what would the repercussions be or would it really just depend as to what lead up to either occurring?

    Was gold and foreign investments the right direction to diversify for this or impossible to say?

    submitted by /u/_Supply_Side_Jesus_
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    I'm confused. Why are Vangaurd's major index funds more expensive than their ETFs of the same index? (example inside)

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 05:32 PM PST

    VOO - http://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/voo/quote.html

    .04 expense with 0 min

    vs

    VFINX

    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/VFINX/quote.html .14 expense and 3k min

    same thing for VTI vs VTSMX


    So, why would anyone choose the fund version?

    submitted by /u/explore__
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    What are the serious ways to forecast an earnings report?

    Posted: 26 Jan 2018 12:49 AM PST

    I have a large part of my portfolio in Amazon stock, I've found some articles from various analysts and this page here, but I'm still relatively new to investing.

    Could someone help me out and explain what, if any, is the best way to go about trying to anticipate an earnings report for a particular company? In this case Amazon?

    Thank you so much. :)

    submitted by /u/Unicorn_Flame
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    (newbie question) Is there a history of in the market of huge mega companies like Amazon and Apple (companies that are among the largest in the world) continuing to raise steadily in stock price? Or do gains naturally fall off (like a log curve)?

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 05:13 PM PST

    Any examples from the past? Microsoft?

    submitted by /u/explore__
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    CapitalOne Investing selling self-directed investment accounts to E*Trade

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 03:33 PM PST

    Read the letter here

    If you're using CapitalOne Investing, you will soon be using E*Trade.

    submitted by /u/logicaltuvok
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    Starbucks slides after earnings despite beating Wall Street expectations (SBUX)

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 01:25 PM PST

    http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/starbucks-stock-price-earnings-per-share-revenue-digital-rewards-2018-1-1014017462

    Shares of Starbucks slumped as much as 4% after-hours following the company's first quarter earnings report that beat analysts' earnigs-per-share expectations but fell short on revenue.

    The coffee giant said it earned an adjusted $0.65 cents per share — 14% above the expected $0.57 — on revenues of $6.073 billion. Analysts had expected $6.2 billion.

    "Starbucks reported another quarter of record financial results in Q1 of fiscal 2018, with consolidated revenues up 6% over last year - up 7% excluding 1% for the impact of streamlining activities in the quarter. China grew revenues 30% in Q1, with the strategic acquisition of East China positioning us to accelerate our growth in the key China market," said CEO Kevin Johnson in a press release.

    "Today, Starbucks has two powerful, independent but complementary engines driving our global growth, the U.S. and China. Our work to streamline the company is sharpening our focus on our core operating priorities."

    Same-store sales, a metric that Wall Street is paying careful attention to as the 27,000+ store chain nears maximum expansion in the US, was up 2%. The company had forecast 3-5% growth this year.

    "We are concerned SBUX's same store sales could worsen until new store growth slows and in-store capacity constraints are addressed," UBS analyst Jason West said in a note to clients last week.

    Stabucks is now looking to other areas for continues growth, specifically China.

    "We are laser-focused on accelerating growth in China and driving improvement across the U.S. business as we move into and through the back half of the year," CFO Scott Maw said in a press release.

    Wall Street analysts remain bullish on the stock, and have a consensus price target of $64 — 6% above where shares opened Thursday.

    Shares of Starbucks have severely lagged behind the S&P 500 benchmark in the past year, rising just 3.6% compared to the index's 23% gain.

    submitted by /u/bourscheid
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    Sensationalist headlines are painful.

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 09:57 AM PST

    Every time the major indexes rise on any given day, I feel like I'm inundated with headlines akin to "This random stock analyst predicts the S&P500 will rise a gazillion percent and beyond for 2018!!!111!!" When the indexes drop the exact opposite happens: "Stock market crash imminent!!!" or "Ten reasons why 2018 will be the worst year in stock market history!!". Who the hell writes these articles? I understand that sensational headlines get lots of clicks, but for shit's sake it's a annoying.

    submitted by /u/phishtheband
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