Value Investing Katy Perry asks uncle Warren about bitcoin |
- Katy Perry asks uncle Warren about bitcoin
- Bloomberg: Goldman Warns Highest Valuations Since 1900 Mean Pain Is Coming
- A Perspective on Value Investing (PDF)
- A reminder not to take pro-forma reports seriously, as recommended in "The Intelligent Investor"
- Value Investor Insight - worth it?
- Ideas on Kroger making a buy/sell side transaction?
- Alright Everyone, What are Your Thoughts on Bitcoin?
| Katy Perry asks uncle Warren about bitcoin Posted: 29 Nov 2017 03:18 PM PST |
| Bloomberg: Goldman Warns Highest Valuations Since 1900 Mean Pain Is Coming Posted: 29 Nov 2017 08:30 AM PST A prolonged bull market across stocks, bonds and credit has left a measure of average valuation at the highest since 1900, a condition that at some point is going to translate into pain for investors, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. "It has seldom been the case that equities, bonds and credit have been similarly expensive at the same time, only in the Roaring '20s and the Golden '50s," Goldman Sachs International strategists including Christian Mueller-Glissman wrote in a note this week. "All good things must come to an end" and "there will be a bear market, eventually" they said. As central banks cut back their quantitative easing, pushing up the premiums investors demand to hold longer-dated bonds, returns are "likely to be lower across assets" over the medium term, the analysts said. A second, less likely, scenario would involve "fast pain." Stock and bond valuations would both get hit, with the mix depending on whether the trigger involved a negative growth shock, or a growth shock alongside an inflation pick-up. "Elevated valuations increase the risk of draw-downs for the simple reason that there is less buffer to absorb shocks," the strategists wrote. "The average valuation percentile across equity, bonds and credit in the U.S. is 90 percent, an all-time high." A portfolio of 60 percent S&P 500 Index stocks and 40 percent 10-year U.S. Treasuries generated a 7.1 percent inflation-adjusted return since 1985, Goldman calculated -- compared with 4.8 percent over the last century. The tech-bubble implosion and global financial crisis were the two taints to the record. Low inflation has prevailed in the current period, just as it did alongside economic growth in the 1920s and 1950s, according to the Goldman report. "The worst outcome for 60/40 portfolios is high and rising inflation, which is when both bonds and equities suffer, even outside recessions." An increase in policy rates triggered by price pressures "remains a key risk for multi-asset portfolios. Duration risk in bond markets is much higher this cycle," they wrote. In the Goldman strategists' main scenario of lower but positive returns, investors should "stay invested and could even be lured to lever up." They suggested putting more in equities, with their greater risk-adjusted returns, and scaling back duration in fixed income. [link] [comments]  |
| A Perspective on Value Investing (PDF) Posted: 29 Nov 2017 03:11 PM PST |
| A reminder not to take pro-forma reports seriously, as recommended in "The Intelligent Investor" Posted: 29 Nov 2017 04:41 AM PST |
| Value Investor Insight - worth it? Posted: 29 Nov 2017 04:25 AM PST Any long-time subscriber who can or cannot recommend the Value Investor Insight? Is it investors marketing themselves or is it a publication worth paying for? Any other subscriptions you read? Thanks [link] [comments]  |
| Ideas on Kroger making a buy/sell side transaction? Posted: 29 Nov 2017 06:31 AM PST What are your guys' thoughts on Kroger acquiring a business or selling a division to enhance value for shareholders? I was thinking about Kroger acquiring Sprouts. [link] [comments]  |
| Alright Everyone, What are Your Thoughts on Bitcoin? Posted: 29 Nov 2017 05:04 AM PST Is it a currency (or too volatile)? Is it an investment (no cash flows)? Why does scarcity mean value (you need demand there) ? How much demand is purely speculative? Why does "value" even imply monetization; protocol architecture of the Internet creates value, yet there is no owner of it and the inventor saw no monetary reward from it. TripAdvisor creates value, yet monetizes very little. Many people say bitcoin will do well "because Blockchain". Why is bitcoin the only or even a superior way to invest in Blockchain (as opposed to Visa, or even another coin)? If the argument is a greater fool theory, what is the probability bitcoin has a repeat of 2013 and goes down for 2 years? What's the prob it goes down 80% and does nothing for 20 years like tech stocks? Finally, what's its intrinsic value? What does one even base that off of, and if you don't have an intrinsic value range with probabilities attached, how can you have done the expected value calculation to even justify an "investment"? Basically I don't understand it and it seems to me tulipesque. If anything is useful it may be ether, but the apps on its network are totally useless so there's no real demand for it yet. It's going to be huge, but I suspect this will play out like the internet: initial bubble, burst, nothing for 20 years until people really figure it out, and then the real appreciation delivered by actual value being created rather than just speculation about potential for value. Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
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