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    Home Unlabelled Stock Market - Jim Cramer hated Tesla at $17 in 2010, Elon Musk’s response is priceless

    Stock Market - Jim Cramer hated Tesla at $17 in 2010, Elon Musk’s response is priceless

    February 13, 2022

    Stock Market - Jim Cramer hated Tesla at $17 in 2010, Elon Musk’s response is priceless

    Jim Cramer hated Tesla at $17 in 2010, Elon Musk’s response is priceless

    Posted: 12 Feb 2022 08:52 PM PST

    Capital Loss carryover. Don't forget to deduct your previous years Capital Loss from your taxes.

    Posted: 13 Feb 2022 06:11 AM PST

    If you sold stock or mutual funds at a loss, you can use the loss to offset capital gains you had from similar sales. If the net amount of all your gains and losses is a loss, you can report the loss on your return. You can report current year net losses up to $3,000 — or $1,500 if married filing separately. Carry over net losses of more than $3,000 to next year's return.

    You can carry over capital losses indefinitely. Figure your allowable capital loss on Schedule D and enter it on Form 1040, Line 13.

    If you have an unused prior-year loss, you can subtract it from this year's net capital gains. You can report and deduct from your income a loss up to $3,000 — or $1,500 if married filing separately.

    https://www.hrblock.com/tax-center/income/investments/capital-loss-carryover/

    Did anyone use prior years losses to reduce current years taxable Gain?

    submitted by /u/ShimonAzar
    [link] [comments]

    China’s biggest chipmaker SMIC posts record revenue despite U.S. sanctions

    Posted: 13 Feb 2022 09:17 AM PST

    Trading wisdom from the vikings

    Posted: 12 Feb 2022 09:29 AM PST

    Equity opt-in form after company filling Chapter 11

    Posted: 13 Feb 2022 11:32 AM PST

    Hi guys,

    I had some shares in a company that I worked for. I forgot about these shares, and a few weeks ago, I received a letter with the title "equity opt-in form". After some research in Google, I found out this company filled Chapter 11 a few weeks before the letter was sent.

    I wonder whether this letter is something common after Chapter 11 or something special in this process. I'm just basically looking to sell the shares if the broker let me do it and forget about this dark period of my career.

    I'm also wondering whether I will receive any kind of "opt-out" at some point in this process.

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/freeriderblack
    [link] [comments]

    Backtesting the most popular investment strategies over the last two decades!

    Posted: 12 Feb 2022 03:35 AM PST

    Backtesting the most popular investment strategies over the last two decades!

    I have a confession to make. Even after all the analyses and strategies I have created, I allocate most of my investments to the S&P500 while keeping some part of it for the moonshots. I have told the exact same thing to everyone who has asked me personally for investment advice.

    But as explained in this fantastic article by Nick, the problem with most financial advice is that it's biased heavily towards your experience. I started investing in 2017 and have experienced nothing but a bull market (albeit the brief Covid-19 dip). But consider the situation of someone who started investing in 2000 or in the peak of the 2007 bubble. In both cases, it would have taken more than 6-7 years just to break even on their investments. I can't even imagine waiting more than half a decade just for my investment to grow to its initial value, given the current market conditions.

    Given that there is no one size fits all approach in the stock market, in this week's analysis, I am doing a deep-dive into the various types of investment strategies, the returns generated, and their limitations.

    I should warn you now that this is not about finding the strategy that gives you the most returns. This is more so about finding what type of investment strategy fits you the best. While putting all your portfolio into crypto might end up giving you a 10,000% return (which is fully viable for a 20-something-year-old with a small portfolio), having an 80% drawdown is not something a 50-year-old with a retirement account would be looking forward to.

    The point I am trying to make here is that investing isn't an absolute game, it's a relative game. What fits you perfectly might be terrible for others. Your risk tolerance might be way higher. So I am offering you a choice:

    All I'm offering is the truth. Nothing more.

    You take the blue pill, the story ends, you can close the page now and believe that DCAing into S&P 500 is your best bet. You take the red pill, you stay in wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.

    https://preview.redd.it/cwi0u6q51eh81.png?width=1728&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5de9e051245424f16afb80a4a35943b6495da5c

    Let's start with the various types of investing strategies that are out there. Granted, this is not a conclusive list of the various types of investments, but I have tried to cover the popular strategies that are out there.

    Before we jump into the results, now would be the right time to explain some concepts relating to how to analyze your investments objectively.

    a. Cumulative Return: It's the total return you would have made on your invested amount. Let's say you invested $100 and over the next two years the investment went up to $200. Then the cumulative return is 100%.

    b. Rate of Return (aka annualized return): It's the measure of how much your investment has grown or shrunk in an annualized format. This allows us to compare investments that are active across different time periods.

    b. Sharpe Ratio: Sharpe ratio measures your investment return while making an adjustment for risk. For example, two investors A & B generate a return of 15% and 12% respectively. However, if A took much larger risks when compared to B, it may be that B has a better risk-adjusted return. All else equal, the higher the Sharpe Ratio, the better is your investment.

    c. Max Drawdown: This is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a subsequent bottom of the portfolio. It is an indicator of the downside risk over a specified time period. A 30% max drawdown implies that your portfolio was down 30% from its all-time high at some point during your investment period.

    A quick note on how the investments are made: I am considering an equal amount invested monthly into every strategy (Since this is the most realistic way of investing for a large majority of investors and lump-sum investing returns are heavily influenced by the starting point) [1].

    https://preview.redd.it/iaoy3qm91eh81.png?width=1728&format=png&auto=webp&s=c57b0ace25b77d5344d2a2e7082df76d33cd3522

    SPY and Chill

    I feel that this is one of the most common types of investment out there with a person investing an equal amount into SPY every month and holding on for a long time. The basic principle behind this strategy is that the stock market as a whole will keep rising over the long period as the national economy grows. Wealth creation would be possible by just tagging along with the index rather than trying to pick and choose winners within the stock market.

    https://preview.redd.it/3tvdntha1eh81.png?width=1233&format=png&auto=webp&s=52652a91023bfacf49b4bd17c6936d8af80f4d2f

    As expected, just investing in SPY gave an excellent annual return of 12.3% over the last two decades. On the flip side, since your portfolio is consisting of 100% equity, you would have experienced a max drawdown of ~40% at one point (Around the 2008 crash). The fluctuations in the portfolio value are also captured by the low Sharpe Ratio of 0.62 which showcases that you are not adequately compensated for the risk that you are taking by holding 100% equity.

    In most statistical tests, it is usually required to set a base rate - To see what is the "average" rate of success. The SPY's rate of returns and risk is usually set as the benchmark because it accounts for the bulk of "safe returns". Any returns outside this are usually accounted to an edge, the "alpha", and finding that edge is what beating the market is all about. [2]

    Balanced Portfolio

    50% Stocks. 50% Bonds. Perfectly balanced, as all things should be.

    This is the type of investment strategy where you are taking a balanced approach to investment. Having a 50:50 split on stocks and bonds would definitely impact your overall returns, but you can sleep better knowing that even in the case of downturns, your portfolio is well protected.

    https://preview.redd.it/ypvg523d1eh81.png?width=1327&format=png&auto=webp&s=be0cab7e492efc4ee29428c12f5315c8cbf40b83

    While the balanced portfolio did end up giving lower returns, it's much better in terms of the max drawdown. Your portfolio would only have had a max drop of 14% when compared to the 40% drop experienced by SPY. Adding to this, the portfolio has an excellent Sharpe Ratio of 1.35 when compared to just 0.69 of SPY during the same period.

    https://preview.redd.it/nahhelsd1eh81.png?width=1074&format=png&auto=webp&s=992bc92834640b7ecb93a59c429d7c138c45116f

    What's even more interesting is that the portfolio ends up performing better than SPY during crashes[3]. As you can see from the backtest, during the financial and Covid'19 stock market crashes, your portfolio would have done much better than the market. The 2.5% CAGR [4] you are sacrificing by not going 100% in SPY is rewarded in terms of a better portfolio during the tough times.

    Harry Markowitz, the father of Modern Portfolio Theory, himself preferred the balanced strategy though his models indicated a more nuanced split. His reasoning was that it allowed him to sleep better at night.

    Link to the balanced portfolio backtest [5]

    Diversified Portfolio

    In this type of investment, we are looking to get a piece of all types of companies. I have considered an equal split (33.33%) between Large-cap, Mid-cap, and Small-cap funds.

    https://preview.redd.it/3exz9d8f1eh81.png?width=1327&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9750b2510b208ecd84671ec8243e8627fb50c11

    The proposed type of diversification lessens the portfolio risk (as can be seen from max drawdown) but at the same time ends up giving a slightly lower return than purely holding the S&P 500. If you consider the Sharpe Ratio, SPY performs slightly better as you would have had similar fluctuations holding a diversified portfolio while generating slightly lower returns.

    I expected that the addition of Small and Mid-Cap should have generated better returns than SPY, but my hypothesis here is that the heavy concentration of tech stocks in SPY (~25% now) pushed the rate of return higher than that of the diversified portfolio containing small and mid-cap stocks given the recent performance of tech stocks. This brings us to the:

    ​

    Tech Enthusiast

    Another one of the common strategies that has paid out handsomely over the past few decades. In this, we are allocating 100% of our monthly investments towards Nasdaq-100 (QQQ). [6]

    https://preview.redd.it/s0hxh6vg1eh81.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd1f0e9e349f2526e7eb4050c549576435a284be

    Well, would you look at that! Over the last 2 decades, QQQ has returned more than double the investment return of the S&P 500. This can be attributed predominantly to two reasons.

    1. Tech stocks had an amazing run due to the advances in tech as well as the availability of cheap capital after the 2007 crisis.
    2. Our starting point (2002) is heavily biased towards QQQ. It's the lull after the 2000 dot com bubble. If we had started the same analysis in say 1990, we would have had a very different result (QQQ dropped 78% from its peak compared to only a 46% drop in SPY during the same period).

    Having 100% of your investment in one sector that performed phenomenally is bound to give stunning portfolio returns. Hindsight 20/20!

    Growth Seeker

    Here we are only focused on growth. Our investments are towards companies that are fast-growing. Since we are taking a higher risk on these growth stocks, we expect a higher portfolio return over the long run which is exactly what happened over the last 2 decades.

    https://preview.redd.it/ffvyerqh1eh81.png?width=1332&format=png&auto=webp&s=a85737d0b4640873ca7021b0301e9bbd1b00fb7e

    But once again this can be closely associated with investing in QQQ. I had considered Vanguard Growth ETF as my growth fund and as of today, their top 5 holdings are Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Tesla. We are in a very rare time period where the largest companies in the world are considered to be the ones that are growing above the market rate! Adding to this, going 100% on a growth fund gave us better risk-adjusted returns than just investing in the S&P 500.

    Buying the Dip

    The idea here is simple. In this type of investing, you would not invest in the stock market and keep accumulating your cash position waiting for a crash. While this is a risky strategy, the returns do justify that investing during a crash tends to give you the best return.

    https://preview.redd.it/onkkv42j1eh81.png?width=861&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7009a528d6db74081a1f94dbba218176df62d71

    I had already done an extensive analysis on Buying the dip that highlights the limitations as well as the nuances around buying the dip that is a must-read in case you are trying to replicate this strategy.

    Dollar-Cost-Averaging of Crypto Markets

    Finally, we couldn't finish this without analyzing crypto investment strategies. I had created a Dollar-Cost-Averaging strategy for the crypto markets that we are going to leverage for this.

    On the 1st of every month, you check what the top-10 traded currencies of the last month were (by volume) and invest in them. For example, if I am investing $100 on 1st Feb 2022, I will check what were the most traded (i.e popular) cryptos in the past month (in this case Jan'22) and then invest in that. By following this strategy, you are not jumping into any investment. You are just methodologically checking the popular cryptos at the beginning of the month and investing in them. [7]

    The underlying principle was to create a straightforward strategy that can be followed by anyone without luck coming in as a factor. Now there would be two ways to invest in the top 10 currencies. You can either split your investment equally across the cryptocurrencies or split it in the proportion to the traded volume.

    https://preview.redd.it/3ncasyyk1eh81.png?width=692&format=png&auto=webp&s=07e19ef92c6b1a59b7a3443329884cd19656995e

    Both strategies give amazing returns but equally splitting your investment produces almost double the weighted average split. At the same time, you should be aware that the eye-popping returns do come at extreme risk of capital.

    https://preview.redd.it/509xfdvl1eh81.png?width=550&format=png&auto=webp&s=b49c5471cdb576aa24bca566a671aa86c73dcae5

    The Crypto world has experienced 80%+ drawdowns multiple times in the last decade with bitcoin losing more than 90% of its value in 2011. You have to remember that once an asset reduces 90% in its value, it has to come back up 900% just for you to break even!

    https://preview.redd.it/9dmtfeym1eh81.png?width=1728&format=png&auto=webp&s=718722766bd924a3559fa464509e80da48390c92

    Phew! That was a lot to digest for sure. As I said in the beginning, this was not about finding an investment strategy that generates the most amount of returns. This was more about finding a strategy that fits you.

    Maybe you are still in the SPY and Chill bucket and want the simplicity associated with your portfolio. Or maybe you were swayed by the excellent drawdown protection of the balanced portfolio or the eye-popping returns generated by tech enthusiasts. Finally, you might want to dip your toes in the crypto market after seeing the 10,000%+ returns if you have an above-average tolerance for risk.

    We have barely scratched the surface here and there are many more strategies out there that we haven't covered that might be perfect for you. The idea here is that there are much better strategies (both in terms of risk-adjusted returns and max volatility) than just investing in the S&P 500. It's up to you to find one that fits you the best!

    In the immortal words of Morpheus,

    https://i.redd.it/l7fd3fcp1eh81.gif

    https://preview.redd.it/6tefkvdq1eh81.png?width=1728&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6cfc57207c62e11cde72ce07967130c38ab0b39

    Data used in the analysis: Here

    Lumpsum investment backtests : (SPY, Balanced, Diversified, Tech)

    ​

    Footnotes

    [1] For example, in case you are considering lump-sum investing, placing the starting point in the dot-com bubble (2000) would give vastly different results than if you consider your starting point as 2002. Case in point, CISCO stock still hasn't breached its dot-com bubble value.

    [2] Though there are a few other factors now that are recognized as adding minor increases to the market returns - Such as value, growth, small-cap, etc.

    [3] Please note that this backtest is made using a lump-sum investment and not a monthly investment. It's more for the purpose of an insight into how holding bonds can be beneficial in case of a crash.

    [4] While 2.5% CAGR does seem negligible, if you look at the cumulative returns, the 100% SPY portfolio gives 293% vs the balanced portfolio only returning 192%. That's a difference of ~100% on your returns! Yeah, compounding is a b***h when it works against you.

    [5] Please note that this link is for lumpsum and not DCA.

    [6] I know that QQQ is not completely tech but when compared to the 23% allocation towards tech in S&P500, QQQ has more than 70%+ allocated to tech.

    [7] The returns here are calculated using an investment period between 2014 and 2021.

    submitted by /u/nobjos
    [link] [comments]

    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning February 14th, 2022

    Posted: 12 Feb 2022 08:08 AM PST

    Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/StockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning February 14th, 2022.

    The Federal Reserve's rate debate and Ukraine tensions could jolt markets in the week ahead - (Source)

    Stocks are likely to be volatile in the week ahead as investors watch tensions between Russia and Ukraine and debate how quickly the Federal Reserve can raise interest rates.

    Markets were roiled in the past week and bond yields spiked after a hot inflation reading Thursday upended many Wall Street forecasts for interest rate hikes. Investors were dealt another blow Friday after the White House warned that Russia could invade Ukraine during the Olympics. Both the U.S. and U.K. have called for their citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible.

    "I think the Fed is keeping everyone on edge, and this is going to add to that edginess," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. "So we had a three-week earnings respite from the macro. We turned micro, and this week we were reminded earnings season is pretty much over and all macro issues matter again."

    The major averages slid sharply on Friday afternoon, and Treasury yields came off the highs they set after Thursday's report that January's consumer price index jumped by 7.5%, a 40-year high. The S&P 500 lost 1.8% for the week, falling to 4,418.

    With about two hours left to Friday trading, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told a White House briefing that there were signs of Russian escalation at the Ukraine border. Sullivan said it was possible an invasion could occur during the Olympics, despite speculation to the contrary.

    "Up until now, I'd say it was all about monetary policy. This throws an extra unknown into the works," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. "The dollar is rallying, oil prices have rallied and stocks are selling off... Even if nothing happens this weekend, people will be nervous about it in the next week."

    Boockvar said the Russian tensions complicate the central bank's outlook, and an invasion would add to already hot global inflation. "It's causing problems for the Fed because this basically would inflate oil prices, food prices, wheat, fertilizers and everything else and just make the Fed's inflation fighting capability that much more difficult to maneuver," he said. "The Fed can't back off. You can't blame geopolitics as a reason not to hike rates."

    He said if the central bank were concerned about an economic impact, it could slow hikes.

    Fed's inflation fight

    By Friday morning, some economists had ratcheted up expectations for the Fed to hike interest rates by a half point in March, following the January inflation report. Others, like economists at Goldman Sachs, have raised their views to a faster pace, with as many as seven quarter-point hikes for this year.

    Fed speakers will be a highlight in the week ahead, particularly St. Louis Fed President James Bullard who appears on CNBC's "Squawk Box" Monday at 8:30 a.m. Bullard added to market turbulence and the sharp jump in bond yields Thursday when he said that he would like to see rates rise by 100 basis points (or 1 percentage point) by July.

    "I think volatility remains elevated as we transition from essentially this more dovish Fed to this more hawkish Fed policy which we're experiencing," said Patrick Palfrey, senior equity strategist at Credit Suisse. "We haven't yet settled on how hawkish we are going to be and until we can chart a new path for interest rates hikes with some consistency, I think volatility is going to remain elevated, and that's going to be more true for high valuation companies."

    What to watch

    The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its last meeting on Wednesday. Investors will watch it carefully for any new insights on its plans for rate hikes, the inflation outlook or comments on its balance sheet.

    There will also be more important inflation data, when the producer price index is reported Tuesday. That report is also expected to be very hot, after January's CPI. Surging inflation has caused consumer sentiment to slump, and now economists are watching consumer spending closely. That means January's retail sales will also be important when it is reported Wednesday.

    There is also a final rush of big earnings reports, with Cisco, Nvidia and AIG Wednesday. Walmart reports Thursday, and Deere reports Friday.

    "We're starting to transition beyond earnings, I think investors took a fair amount of comfort that profit margins stayed as high as they did," said Palfrey. "I think the question is as we look out at the next couple of quarters, are we able to pass through prices at the same rate?"

    Fed debate

    Palfrey said investors are looking for more clear communications from the central bank. Bullard is the only Fed official who endorsed a 50-basis-point hike, while others, like Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she does not expect to raise the fed funds target rate by more than a quarter point. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has left the door open to a half point hike but did not say he favored it.

    Fed Governor Lael Brainard speaks Friday, as does Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Mester speaks Thursday.

    Other Fed officials have pushed back on Bullard's comments. But still, there is a high level of uncertainty in the market, and bond pros are wondering if the St. Louis Fed chief will walk back his comments Monday morning.

    Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said some investors wonder if market volatility could slow the central bank's tightening path.

    "The Fed is full steam ahead. They have to be... They're still adding to the balance sheet. We're still at zero on rates," she said. "There's nothing in my mind, unless an asteroid lands on earth and blows us all to smithereens, that makes the Fed say we're fine, we're going to stay at zero."

    "They're admitting themselves they're behind the curve. They let the inflation cat out of the bag. I don't think they thought it would have the traction it has had," she said.

    Rate rally and reverse

    When bonds sell off, yields go higher and they jumped this past week. The 10-year yield was as high as 2.06% Friday. After the Ukraine news, the 10-year yield was back down to about 1.93%.

    The 2-year yield was at a high of 1.63% Friday, up from 1.32% the week earlier. The biggest moves were Thursday, and the yield on the 2-year note moved more than 20 basis points Thursday. But by Friday afternoon, it had fallen back to 1.51%.

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    S&P Sectors for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #4!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #5!)

    First Trading Day of February Monthly Options Expiration Week DJIA Down 9 of Last 17

    In addition to being Valentine's Day, next Monday is also the first trading day of February's monthly option expiration week. Traders looking to roll or exit positions may begin first thing next week. Since 1990, Monday or the first trading day of the week has a bullish record. S&P 500 has enjoyed the greatest frequency of gains, up 23 times in 32 years with an average gain of 0.26% on Monday. Russell 2000 is second best since 1990 with 21 gains. However, since 2005 the day has seen less bullishness with DJIA down 9 of the last 17 and its average performance slipping to just 0.09%. S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have held up better over the last 17 years when compared to DJIA.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Super Bowl Indicator

    Americans across the country are gearing up for Super Bowl LVI this Sunday. The Rams are currently a four-point favorite, and the Bengals could struggle to contain the league's best defensive line. Both teams come into this game with their respective offenses on fire, and the last few weeks of the playoffs have resulted in nail-biting finishes.

    One outlandish market theory suggests that when the NFC wins the Super Bowl the market will perform better than average. Conversely, when the AFC wins, the market underperforms. Although there is no basis of truth to justify these claims, the conclusion has historically been accurate. As you can see from the table below, the S&P 500 averages a gain of 10.3% from the Super Bowl through year-end when the NFC takes home the Lombardi trophy. On the other hand, when the AFC wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 averages a gain of 6.2%, which is 4.1 percentage points lower. The positivity rates have slightly favored an NFC victory as well (78.6% vs 70.4%).

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Neither the Rams nor the Bengals have won multiple Super Bowls. The Rams have won just once (in 2000), and this is the Bengals third time competing in the Super Bowl. Of the teams that have won multiple Super Bowls, the S&P 500 has performed best through year-end when the Steelers, 49ers, Broncos, or Bucs take home the trophy. After the Dolphins, Raiders, and Giants won Super Bowls, forward returns were negative on an average basis.

    Given that the one Super Bowl the Rams won was in 2000, you would think that the last thing a bull would want to see on Sunday is a win by Matt Stafford and crew. On the other hand, in the two prior Super Bowls that the Bengals played in and lost, the S&P 500 was up over 20% for the remainder of the year both times, so it's a bit of a push. Within the Bespoke crew, the Bengals are a near but not unanimous pick, Who has heads on the coin toss?

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Do Stocks Want The Bengals or Rams to Win?

    The Super Bowl Indicator suggests stocks rise for the full year when the Super Bowl winner has come from the original National Football League (now the NFC), but when an original American Football League (now the AFC) team has won, stocks fall. We would be the first to admit that this indicator has no connection to the stock market, but "data don't lie": The S&P 500 Index has performed better, and posted positive gains with greater frequency, over the past 55 Super Bowl games when NFC teams have won.

    It was originally discovered in 1978 by Leonard Kopett, a sportswriter for the New York Times. Up until that point, the indicator had never been wrong.

    A simpler way to look at the Super Bowl Indicator is to look at the average gain for the S&P 500 when the NFC has won versus the AFC—and ignore the history of the franchises. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this similar set of criteria has produced an average price return of 10.8% when an NFC team has won, compared with a return of 7.1% with an AFC winner. An NFC winner has produced a positive year 79% of the time, while the S&P 500 has been up only 65% of the time when the winner came from the AFC.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    So should the bulls be rooting for the Rams? Maybe not. Stocks have actually done just fine lately when the AFC has won. In fact, the S&P 500 Index gained 10 of the past 11 years after an AFC Super Bowl champ.

    "Interestingly, there have been 55 Super Bowl winners, yet only 20 teams account for those wins," said LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "Of course, we'd never suggest investing based on this, but history would say that lately AFC teams have been quite good for stocks, but I'm also a Bengals fan, so I'm clearly biased."

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here's a breakdown of the 20 Super Bowl winners and how the S&P 500 has done following their victories. The author's favorite team, The Cincinnati Bengals, isn't on this list just yet. Hopefully that changes this time next week.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Lastly, Tom Brady won't be in this Super Bowl and won't be in any more now that he has retired. He played in a record 10 Super Bowls and won a record 7 of them. Maybe something he should be known for is the Brady Indicator, as when he won the big game stocks did well and when he lost, they didn't.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending February 11th, 2022

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 2.13.22

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

    Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

    • ($NVDA $PLTR $SHOP $RBLX $UPST $ROKU $TTD $DKNG $WMT $ABNB $CROX $MAR $AMAT $MRO $DVN $CAR $MTTR $SAND $FVRR $QS $VIAC $WYNN $GOLD $ALX $INLB $WEBR $WIX $STNG $KELYA $POWW $HIMX $QSR $ET $AAP $CSCO $THS $DASH $DE $KHC $SLBK $HLT)
    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR FEBRUARY 2022!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE NOTABLE EARNINGS BEFORE THE OPEN ON MONDAY!)

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

    Monday 2.14.22 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Monday 2.14.22 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 2.15.22 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 2.15.22 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 2.16.22 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 2.16.22 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Thursday 2.17.22 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Thursday 2.17.22 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Friday 2.18.22 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

    Friday 2.18.22 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    NVIDIA Corp. $239.49

    NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, February 16, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.22 per share on revenue of $7.41 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.26 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 85% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.16 to $1.28 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 53.46% with revenue increasing by 48.11%. Short interest has decreased by 4.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 26.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.0% above its 200 day moving average of $225.84. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, January 25, 2022 there was some notable buying of 10,010 contracts of the $235.00 put expiring on Friday, February 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 10.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.7% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Palantir Technologies Inc. $13.13

    Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, February 17, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.04 per share on revenue of $413.99 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of approximately $418.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 42.86% with revenue increasing by 28.53%. Short interest has increased by 42.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 49.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 40.2% below its 200 day moving average of $21.95. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 26, 2022 there was some notable buying of 29,706 contracts of the $15.00 call and 29,190 contracts of the $15.00 put expiring on Friday, February 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 13.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.3% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Shopify Inc. $854.00

    Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, February 16, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.46 per share on revenue of $1.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 21.93% with revenue increasing by 73.87%. Short interest has increased by 27.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 36.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.0% below its 200 day moving average of $1,356.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 6, 2022 there was some notable buying of 1,524 contracts of the $1,180.00 put and 1,507 contracts of the $1,180.00 call expiring on Friday, February 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Roblox Corporation $66.81

    Roblox Corporation (RBLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, February 15, 2022. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.13 per share on revenue of $777.39 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.11) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 17.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 32.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.4% below its 200 day moving average of $86.07. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, February 3, 2022 there was some notable buying of 4,602 contracts of the $70.00 call expiring on Friday, February 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 21.6% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Upstart Holdings, Inc. $100.02

    Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, February 15, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.52 per share on revenue of $262.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.58 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.50 to $0.52 per share on revenue of $255.00 million to $265.00 million. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue growth of 203.13%. Short interest has increased by 150.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 58.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.3% below its 200 day moving average of $186.12. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, February 8, 2022 there was some notable buying of 1,273 contracts of the $430.00 call expiring on Friday, January 20, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 25.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 34.1% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Roku Inc $163.94

    Roku Inc (ROKU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, February 17, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $897.12 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $885.00 million to $900.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 85.71% with revenue increasing by 38.04%. Short interest has increased by 36.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 43.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.5% below its 200 day moving average of $306.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 27, 2022 there was some notable buying of 2,283 contracts of the $100.00 put and 1,542 contracts of the $210.00 call expiring on Friday, February 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 15.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Trade Desk, Inc. $76.30

    Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, February 16, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.26 per share on revenue of $389.20 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.30 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of at least $388.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 24.20% with revenue increasing by 21.66%. Short interest has decreased by 19.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 9.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.3% above its 200 day moving average of $76.09. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, February 11, 2022 there was some notable buying of 929 contracts of the $72.00 put expiring on Friday, February 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 17.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.8% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    DraftKings Inc. $23.33

    DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Friday, February 18, 2022. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.82 per share on revenue of $442.45 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.94) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 18.84% with revenue increasing by 37.31%. Short interest has increased by 34.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 44.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.2% below its 200 day moving average of $43.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 2, 2022 there was some notable buying of 17,241 contracts of the $19.00 put expiring on Friday, February 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 14.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.6% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Walmart Inc. $135.33

    Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, February 17, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.49 per share on revenue of $151.74 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.19% with revenue decreasing by 0.22%. Short interest has decreased by 8.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.0% below its 200 day moving average of $142.44. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 9, 2022 there was some notable buying of 12,003 contracts of the $150.00 put expiring on Friday, March 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Airbnb, Inc. $166.53

    Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, February 15, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.05 per share on revenue of $1.46 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.08 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 100.46% with revenue increasing by 69.91%. Short interest has decreased by 3.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.7% above its 200 day moving average of $159.07. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, February 11, 2022 there was some notable buying of 4,465 contracts of the $205.00 call expiring on Friday, February 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 10.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

    I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/StockMarket. :)

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
    [link] [comments]

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning February 14th, 2022

    Posted: 12 Feb 2022 03:42 AM PST

    3 year gains with no conventional education. Any advice on developing a system to better protect assets and deliver consistent results instead of trading on hunches? I currently participate in swing trading.

    Posted: 11 Feb 2022 10:54 PM PST

    Fed Is Hawkish....Double Rate Hike in March?? Will This Rate Hike Affect Real Estate or Stocks More??������

    Posted: 12 Feb 2022 06:06 PM PST

    This week has been bloody! My spy calls we're beat up and I don't see a big reversal coming anytime soon with the fed looking extremely hawkish on rates. If we get a double hike next month the market could take a huge hit. I know this possibility is partially priced in but it isn't a reality yet. I'm curious to watch how real estate prices and stock prices reacts as the rates increases aggressively over the next 3-12 months. I'm considering moving more equity into the real-estate market but I'm not sure if I want to further my leverage with a possible connection ahead in both markets. Let me know your thoughts and what you predict in the for the next year! 📉📉📈

    submitted by /u/oepweq
    [link] [comments]

    GELV stock - Hi there! Would someone please tell me what these 0 mean? I’ve never seen this before. Thanks!

    Posted: 11 Feb 2022 05:26 PM PST

    Norwegian Air Shuttle Analysis

    Posted: 12 Feb 2022 06:56 PM PST

    Norwegian Air Shuttle Analysis

    Disclaimer: So, i am trying to learn and get better. I am doing some analysis with my friends and we present it to each others to do some practice and i though i could share it here and have some opinions or help to get better, some advice or something. More experienced people or specialists here that want to leave some critique on my "aNaLySiS" on Norwegian Air Shuttle??

    COMPANY PROFILE

    Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA, known also as Norwegian, it is a Norwegian low cost air travel company that operates nationally and internationally with its headquarters in Oslo-Gardermoen.

    Founded in 22nd January 1993, Oslo

    It is the fourth low-cost company after Wizz Air, EasyJet e Ryanair, and the second largest in Scandinavia. It is the ninth in Europe for passenger volume.

    The company has a certified 4-Star Low-Cost Airline for their quality of its airports, onboard product and staff service (both on board and ground staff). The rating include also seats, amenities, food and beverage, cleanliness.

    The company operates mainly in Northern Europe

    Sector's Risks

    The current COVID-19 Pandemic is struggling Airlines Companies by lowering their income volume and of passengers volume.

    During 2019 and 2020, passenger volume decrease by 73%, with the lift of some COVID restrictions and the circulation of the vaccine, we shall an increase of passengers volume, still way low from pre Pandemic levels.

    PASSENGER STATISTICS

    October 2021 to January 2022

    Time Observed Year Year before
    October 2021 1,203,205 319,477
    November 2021 1 005 380 124,481
    December 2021 931,917 129,664
    January 2022 637,376 74,224

    We can clearly see an increase of passengers traffic from the last year and the last period, due to the release of covid restrictions, there are more national and international travels. We shall expect an increased revenue in comparison to the last commercial cycle.

    FINANCE

    Main Key Points of the last crisis management during COVID-19

    • Successful conversion of debts into equity
    • 0.5 Billion NOK loss from operations
    • 3 Billion NOK loan guarantee aid from Norwegian State
    • 330 million from associated private banks
    In million of NOK Q3 2021 Q3 2020
    OPERATING REVENUE 1,927 1,288
    EBITDA 21 -1,263
    EBIT -295 -2,813
    NET 169 -980

    A clear signal of recover from the 2020 pandemic is reflected on the financial statement of the company, with an increasing influx of earnings and progressively positive financials.

    BALANCE SHEET

    In million of NOK 30 SEP 2021 30 SEP 2020
    Total non-current assets 7,973 68,291
    Total current assets 10,648 9,660
    ASSETS 18,621 77,951
    EQUITY 2,526 11,110
    LIABILITIES 16,095 66,841
    EQUITY & LIABILITIES 18,621 77,951

    A clear point of its positive balances is due to the restructuring of its finance structures and debts by selling assets and equities. We can see a reduced financial debt too, a positive point for the company and free cash for disposal. The liquidation of inventory helped to stabilize the company finance. The company had to reduce its size and possessions to become financially stable in the long run.

    2022 PROSPECTIVE

    • Signed LOI* for lease of up to 13 Boeing 737-800 NG aircraft at favorable terms with PBH for the winter seasons 2021/22 and 2022/23
    • Currently, 51 aircraft in operation with PBH through winter 2021 above a minimum operation equivalent to 10 aircraft
    • In negotiations for additional aircraft to be added to the fleet by summer 2022 subject to favorable terms

    \ subject to approvals and documentation. Norwegian has the right, under some of the leases, to substitute the subject 737-800 NG aircraft for new technology narrow-body aircraft from either Boeing or Airbus*

    Technical

    https://preview.redd.it/xii9avo2mih81.png?width=1813&format=png&auto=webp&s=70bf5a0216d476a456667397795105ff659a04cf

    In the long run, we can see the drop of the price after share split of the last year that pushed the singe share price to an average of 10. Price fluctuated stability around 8-12 price until now after that, indicating a stabilization of the market sentiment toward the company.

    An interesting trend on the pivot points is forming, candle sticks are jumping on S1 for a while finding strong support on it and recently testing resistance line in R1. If next weeks price makes R1 a support, we shall expect a run-up

    Major confirmation arrives when we have price using the Weighted Moving Average of 90 days as support line too.

    https://preview.redd.it/6ewb4at4mih81.png?width=1813&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef4a62fb757ca8ae09bc5645a1258eee552a1292

    Above, we can see On Balance Volume, is a technical trading momentum indicator that uses volume flow to predict changes in stock price. The sharp drop in September, without a change of the average price, has suggested a continuity of the sideway trend, point confirmed by observable price action. But the recent building up of the total volume is suggesting a future increase of the volume, not sharp, but surely slow and stable one.

    Relative Strength Index, measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. In this long term chart we can clearly see that the price is stable in this sideway trend because RSI is not in oversold nor overbought, just once at the beginning of 2022, following the uptrend momentum but right afterwards following under 70 points, suggesting not a condition of overvaluation. RSI seems stable for a strong long term bull run.

    We shall have a confirmation of the trend after the Earnings Report, this can heavily push or kill the building uptrend.

    Short trend technical on live.

    ​

    CONCLUSIONS

    The company has room to grow, but yet it is still unprofitable in the short-mid term, I expect a modest bull trend to 14-16 per share at EOY, due to the reopening from lockdown. The increase in travel demand shall increase revenues of Norwegian, but there are a lot of road to cover and many inefficiencies to fix.

    Modest Buy, Long Hold.

    ​

    Let me know what do you think please c:

    submitted by /u/YungChaky
    [link] [comments]

    Account Opening Time

    Posted: 12 Feb 2022 06:50 PM PST

    I opened my Demat Account recently in HDFC Securities. It takes about 5-6 days to complete registration and all that. After one another day, I got my Login ID. Now because this takes so much time, I loose time when Stock Market is down on the floor. So I missed my opportunity. When my account is fully operational the Stock Price gone up.

    Now I want to open a new Demat Account in AngleOne. So, my question is that is it takes same time to open? Because I heard and saw some articles which says if I have already registered with a existing Demat Account (HDFC Securities) and traded with some stocks earlier there, then a new Demat Account opening with different platform (AngleOne) takes less time (within 1 day). And if I am not registered and traded with any Demat Account earlier then it will takes upto more than 3-4 days.

    Is it true or not? Because based on this I am able to calculate how much time it will take to completely operational new Demat Account with AngleOne & won't do the same mistake in calculation of days (which takes 6-7 days to complete) and won't loose the opportunity again.

    submitted by /u/AM_ArnabMitra
    [link] [comments]

    Here is a Market Recap for today Friday, February 11, 2022

    Posted: 11 Feb 2022 03:32 PM PST

    PsychoMarket Recap - Friday, February 11, 2022

    Oh man, what a rough day in the markets today. Stocks finished sharply lower after the Federal Reserve announced it would be holding an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss raising the interest after inflation hit a multi-decade high yesterday. Moreover, mounting geopolitical pressures stemming from the Russia/Ukraine situation added to jitters as the price of oil rocketed to a seven-year high. Things are really starting to get rough out there.

    Markets Today

    • S&P 500 (SPY): -1.97%
    • Nasdaq (QQQ): -3.17%
    • Dow Jones (DIA): -1.49%
    • Russell 2000 (IWM): -1.01%
    • Volatility Index (VIX): +14.43%
    • NVIDIA (NVDA): -7.26%
    • Tesla (TSLA): -4.93%
    • Amazon (AMZN): -3.59%
    • Occidental Petroleum (OXY): +5.65%
    • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): -10.03%
    • Affirm (AFRM): -21.49%
    • Zillow (Z): +13.55%

    Today's drop was sparked by a two-sided gut punch. First, the Federal Reserve announced it would be holding an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss the interest rate. This comes a day after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 7.5% year-over-year, the fastest pace of inflation since 1982.

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20220214closed.htm

    Energy prices remained a key contributor to the overall CPI and were up by 27% on a year-over-year basis in January. Within energy, fuel oil prices jumped 9.5% on a monthly basis, after the price of crude rallied to a seven-year high earlier in the week. Electricity prices also jumped by a pronounced 4.2% on a month-over-month basis.

    Gains in prices for food also contributed to the headline index, like dining at home and out each became more expensive. Food at home prices rose 1% during the month, while food away from home prices rose 0.7%.

    Excluding more volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI rose by 6.0% in January over last year, also marking the biggest jump since 1982. The core CPI had risen by 5.5% in December.

    The price of shelter, which is another major contributor to inflation, rose 0.3% on a monthly basis. In turn, this led to a 0.5% increase in rent prices, which have risen alongside home prices as potential buyers are priced out and forced to rent. Prices for lodging away from home, however, dropped by 3.9% on a monthly basis in January, as the Omicron surge at the beginning of the year dampened mobility and demand for hotels and other stays.

    The report caused St. Louis Fed President James Bullard to say in an interview that he favors an interest rate increase of 1% by July 1.

    David Spika, Guidestone Capital Management President, said "That's not out of the realm of possibility. The Fed realizes they have to start moving. ... Consumers are getting killed with this inflation. The Fed has to move and has to move quickly if they want to rein this in."

    Deutsche Bank economists said Thursday they now expect two more quarter-point hikes than they had previously forecasted. With the upgrade, they now see a 50 basis point rate hike at the March Fed meeting, followed by 25 basis point hikes after each of the following meetings of the year except for in November. If realized, a half-point rate hike in March would mark the Fed's first increase of more than 25 basis points since 2000.

    In geopolitical news, the situation between Russia and Ukraine is markedly heating up, with the White House saying Russia could invade "at any time" and urged American citizens to leave the country "within 48 hours".

    US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Russian forces were now "in a position to be able to mount a major military action. We obviously cannot predict the future, we don't know exactly what is going to happen, but the risk is now high enough and the threat is now immediate enough that [leaving] is prudent.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60355295

    Highlights

    • U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures jumped another 3.4% on Friday to set a fresh seven-year high, touching $92.91 per barrel.
    • The University of Michigan's closely watched consumer sentiment index dropped to 61.7 in early February, marking the lowest level since Oct. 2011. This compared with a reading of 67.2 in January. Consensus economists were looking for the preliminary February index to come in at 67.0, according to Bloomberg data.
    • The White House is warning the chip industry to diversify its supply chain in case Russia retaliates against threatened U.S. export curbs by blocking access to key materials, people familiar with the matter said.
    • The Justice Department wants to depose some of Apple's top executives as it prepares for a trial to determine if Alphabet's Google broke antitrust law in how it runs its search business, a lawyer representing Apple said on Friday.
    • Ford Motor Co said on Friday it is considering producing electric vehicles (EVs) in India for export, and possibly for sale in the domestic market, just months after the U.S. automaker decided to stop selling and manufacturing cars in the country.
    • A Chicago federal judge on Wednesday declined to dismiss Walgreen's (WBA) claim that a law firm representing major health insurers in a drug-pricing lawsuit against the pharmacy retailer has a conflict of interest because it formerly represented the company.
    • Toyota Motor, General Motors (GM), Ford Motor (F), and Chrysler-parent Stellantis said Thursday they had been forced to cancel or scale back some production because of parts shortages stemming from Canadian trucker protests.
    • YouTube, which is owned by Google, elaborated plans to harness emerging metaverse technologies to offer more "social" viewing experiences for gaming content. YouTube remains the world's largest streaming platform and is estimated to be worth somewhere between $250-$500 billion dollars according to different valuation metrics. (Google bought youtube for $1.65 billion in 2006).

    "A gem cannot be polished without friction, nor a person perfected without trials" - Seneca

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
    [link] [comments]

    Pot Stocks are possibly going to get a bump this weekend!!

    Posted: 11 Feb 2022 06:33 PM PST

    Is there any strong correlation between company's liquid cash reserves and its stock growth?

    Posted: 12 Feb 2022 01:07 PM PST

    A persistent and growing reserve typically signals strong company performance. Indeed, it shows that cash is accumulating so quickly that management doesn't have time to figure out how to make use of it.

    One data point: https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-companies-stockpile-1-trillion-cash-investors-want-it/

    Second question is how to identify more such companies?

    Happy weekend!

    submitted by /u/nWjGf
    [link] [comments]

    Stock market and the possible tides of war

    Posted: 12 Feb 2022 07:54 AM PST

    It seems this is serious. Concerning news this weekend on the Russia-Ukraine front, this is the type of event that I believe nobody wants to see, especially coming now out of a pandemic and inflation. What would be the worst/best-case scenarios for stocks? Geopolitical risks already shook the market last Friday pushing stocks down.

    Means most traders reacted in a very bad way to the risk. Now imagine this will go into a full war scenario...

    PS - Obviously I do not wish any war out there. Violence and war are stupid af. But it seems ot me right now we have to think about what can happen to our crypto savings.

    submitted by /u/TheDalaiDrama
    [link] [comments]

    Russia may use field hit by U.S. sanctions for gas exports to China

    Posted: 11 Feb 2022 03:39 PM PST

    Investing in Women’s Best Friends- Luxury Bag Brands

    Posted: 12 Feb 2022 03:18 AM PST

    With great price inelasticity characteristics, the luxury bags are not only a fabulous gift but also an ideal investment that would boost our investment returns. Just as with diamonds, the Hermes and Diors would form a great friendship bond with most women.

    The luxury goods industry is likely to see a revival back to single-digit growth based on estimates by Bain and Company and Statista.

    On the whole, the industry has been resilient to most market shocks through the past 5 years.

    We have touched on 3 brands that are known to not have any price discount, it shows their positioning as the best of the breed- Hermes, LVMH and Dior.

    Based on the valuation, we feel Dior is trading at a reasonable price and it is showing good growth momentum based on the latest FY figures. For Hermes and LVMH, we have to be patient and wait for the right price rather than making an impulse buy.

    For the coming Valentine's Day, you could look into gifting a Dior share instead of the bag to your loved one. Hope it sits well with this gesture.

    Here is the link to the Full Article:

    https://thebigfatwhale.com/investing-in-womens-best-friends-luxury-bag-brands/

    submitted by /u/SecretAgent88
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