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    Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - January 03, 2022 Investing

    Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - January 03, 2022 Investing


    Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - January 03, 2022

    Posted: 03 Jan 2022 02:01 AM PST

    Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you? What country do you live in?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
    • Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
    • And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Too many people are getting influenced by youtubers claiming that the market is going to crash every single day

    Posted: 02 Jan 2022 01:20 PM PST

    I think most of them are down on short positions or paid by hedge funds to spread FUD. The outlook for 2022 is not as good as 2021 but companies are still generating record earnings. The US economy is growing not contracting(recession) so these guys are not basing their predictions on even the most basic economics.

    The point is to not let them dictate your investment decisions. Do not short and do not use leverage ... have patience and you will have the highest probability of making money. Choose companies that generate consistent revenue, will still exist in 5 - 10 years and get them while they are hot(*buys dip).

    This is not to say that the market won't have temporary downturns, it will and that's a healthy part of its function but see it as a buying opportunity not a panic selling event fueled by social media FUD. Letting FUD guide your decisions is how you lose money in this game.

    submitted by /u/BasedVideoEditor
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    Evergrande suspends shares in Hong Kong as firm tries to raise cash

    Posted: 02 Jan 2022 07:39 PM PST

    Crisis-hit Chinese real estate giant Evergrande has suspended trade in its shares on the Hong Kong as investors await news on its restructuring plan.

    The statement to the stock exchange did not give a reason for the trading halt.

    Evergrande has more than $300bn (£222bn) of debts and is scrambling to raise cash by selling assets and shares to repay suppliers and creditors.

    Last week, the company dialled back plans to repay investors in its wealth management products.

    Evergrande said on Friday that each investor in its wealth management product could expect to receive $1,257 each month as principal payment for three months irrespective of when the investment matures.

    The company had earlier not mentioned any amount and had agreed to repay 10% of the investment by the end of the month when the product matures.

    Evergrande said in a statement posted on the wealth unit's website that the situation was not "ideal" and that it would "actively raise funds", and update the repayment plan in late March, without giving further details.

    The announcement was seen as highlighting the deepening cash squeeze at the struggling property developer.

    Last week, Evergrande did not make some interest payments on its offshore bonds.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59855881?xtor=AL-72-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bbbc.news.twitter%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_medium=custom7&at_campaign=64&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom3=%40BBCWorld&at_custom4=AE3A5058-6C3C-11EC-A925-FDC24744363C

    submitted by /u/dremonearm
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    Looking for a decent unpaid/paid source for getting a list of correlations between financial entities, market events

    Posted: 03 Jan 2022 02:01 AM PST

    For ex: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988310001659#:~:text=Oil%20price%20shocks%20can%20increase,and%20thus%20increasing%20the%20unemployment.&text=Consequently%2C%20world%20consumer%20demand%20for,supply%20of%20savings%20is%20increased.

    While digging only a little deeper came across the fact that 60% or so of oil is consumed in moving people, therefore it makes sense for oil prices to rise as unemployment falls. There certainly are a ton of obvious, well studied correlations that play out over and over again over a "macro" time frame. Does anyone have any decent reading(s). I am looking to compile a simple summary so I get lost in the FUD that is every playing and that distracts me, at times, from the obvious that is playing out at that point in time.

    submitted by /u/stockist420
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    2022 Tesla, NIO and LUCID -what to expect

    Posted: 02 Jan 2022 07:55 AM PST

    Source: TheStreetTesla

    After a rocky 2020 for the entire auto industry, electric vehicle sales rebounded in 2021 amid high demand for vehicles and a shortage of actual cars to buy. Tesla, to be fair, never really suffered the way many traditional automakers did. The EV-maker led by CEO Elon Musk found ways to keep vehicle deliveries at steady, record levels even as chip shortages caused some automakers to cut production goals.

    Part of that, of course, comes because Tesla's overall volume -- while steadily growing -- remains much smaller than the higher-volume traditional automakers. But, it's a tribute to the company's innovation that it managed to grow despite a global chip shortage that impacted the entire auto industry.

    EV rivals NIO and Lucid are in a much earlier phase of their journeys, but all three companies have major plans for 2022.

    What Will Tesla Do in 2022 (and Beyond) ?

    In the coming year Tesla will expand its capacity as new factories come online. The EV leader now has four factories online -- Fremont, Shanghai, Austin, and Berlin. CFO Zach Kirkhorn laid out where the company stands and where it's going in his remarks during the company's Q3 earnings call with investors.

    "Over the last 12 months, we've done about 430,000 cars of production. And based upon everything that we know in the factory, where the bottlenecks are, what the potential is, we're targeting to increase that another 50%," he said. "I think that will be a difficult goal but that's the goal that the internal team has, and they're going to continue to push on that."

    Tesla has ambitious plans to grow how many vehicles it can produce, according to its CFO.

    "You know, we're trying to get to 5,000 cars a week as soon as we can," he said. "And then we'll continue to push beyond that, potentially even getting to 10,000 cars per week at those factories. And then we'll add Cybertruck here in Austin and continue to grow from there. So, you know, our goal is to get to millions of cars per year over the next couple of years and then ultimately, in the long term, be able to achieve 20 million cars per year."

    Video: Electric vehicle market share in 2025 estimated to be 6% to 8% (CNBC)

    PlayCurrent Time 0:23/Duration 3:12Loaded: 40.46%Mute100HQCaptionsFullscreenElectric vehicle market share in 2025 estimated to be 6% to 8%

    Lucid Looks to Ramp Up in 2022

    Lucid delivered its first vehicles in the third quarter of 2021. The company plans to increase that in the coming year by closing out this one strong. The company has added 2.85 million square feet to its Arizona manufacturing plant. It plans to have 20 studios and service centers open by the end of this year.

    "So you can see acceleration as a theme in the second half of 2021," CEO Peter Rawlinson said during the Q3 earnings call. "We also continue to increase our service footprint across the U.S., not just with physical service centers but also with the roll-out of our mobile service program. We expect service centers to continue opening in North America and we anticipate hiring a significant number of additional service technicians as we expand our capabilities."

    Lucid plans to be able to sell more vehicles in 2022, Those goals include expanding beyond the U.S.

    "Lucid continues to grow its operations in the U.S. but as part of our growth strategy, and more specifically, our international strategy, we intend to expand our sales, maintenance, repair services, and manufacturing activities outside of the U.S.," according to Rawlinson. " ...On the retail and service front, we're looking to expand our footprint in Europe and the Middle East, and we expect to enter these markets in 2022."

    The company expects to sell 20,000 vehicles in 2022.

    Nio Has Big Plans for 2022

    A Chinese EV company, NIO has made some moves, including listing a number of jobs, that suggest it plans to enter the U.S. market in 2022. The company also said that it will enter Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, and Sweden in 2022, and reach 25 countries by 2025, at its annual Nio Day event.

    Nio delivered 24,439 vehicles in the third quarter of 2021. That roughly doubled its total from the previous year. The company closed the year with over $7 billion on its balance sheet. It expects to deliver between "23,500 and 25,500 vehicles, representing an increase of approximately 35.4% to 46.9% from the same quarter of 2020," the company said in its Q3 earnings report.

    "Despite the continued supply chain volatilities, our teams and partners are working closely together to secure the supply and production for the fourth quarter of 2021," said CEO William Bin Li in the earnings report. "Meanwhile, we are fully dedicated to accelerating our products and technologies development and bringing the three new products based on NIO Technology Platform 2.0 to users in 2022 to lead the smart EV transformation and adoption."

    Nio has NOT confirmed that it plans to enter the U.S. market yet.

    submitted by /u/Vast_Cricket
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    Video Game Market Analysis 2022

    Posted: 02 Jan 2022 11:13 AM PST

    Just released the market analysis for Video game industry: https://spectacleinvesting.com/2022/01/02/the-video-game-market-in-2022/

    TLDR: Video game market is bigger than sports industry and music combined. Current trends are outlined in the post but future trends will be dominated by blockchain gaming, AI and VR/AR. Let me know what you think!

    submitted by /u/degenerate_trader420
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    Tesla Delivers 308.6k cars in Q4 2021, beating analyst expectations by 16%

    Posted: 02 Jan 2022 08:27 AM PST

    https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2021-vehicle-production-deliveries

    Analyst consensus deliveries

    Bloomberg compiled consensus: 266,000

    Company compiled consensus: 266,183

    FactSet compiled consensus: 267,000

    Highest analyst estimate: 290,000 (Credit Suisse)

    Actual deliveries: 308.6k

    This puts the total for the year at 936,172 cars delivered.

    Very strong beat with the highest prices ever bodes well for earnings in 3 weeks. What will be the price action tomorrow? Over the next 3 weeks going into earnings? Long term buyers interested given the consistent beats?

    Disclosure: own TSLA

    submitted by /u/32no
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    Nike NKE Stock January 2022

    Posted: 02 Jan 2022 08:05 AM PST

    Any thoughts here on potential for Nike stock 2022?
    We all know Nike is a great company, world leader in sporting apparel.

    I pass by a Nike store on the Upper East Side of Manhattan almost every day, and there are lines outside almost every day - not just in December.,,...

    But the stock trades at about 45 times earnings right now, and while it had a beat last quarter, growth simply does not warrant that multiple, in my opinion.....

    Realistically, seems to be far more likely that Nike shares will decline in 2022 than rise from the current high level. May even be a short candidate.....

    Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/JackCrainium
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    Is a -17% drop too volatile or risky?

    Posted: 02 Jan 2022 02:00 PM PST

    Hello, so during when omicron first hit, my aggressive portfolio fell from peak down to 17% in about a few weeks/ the month. I'm still going to buy more into it as it has recovered just fine since then, just as I bought more when it was falling 17% as well. i had 100% confidence in the things I was invested in

    I'm just trying to figure out my risk tolerance. I know I'm more aggressive than the average Joe smoe but I'm just trying to ask you how you'd feel if your portfolio fell 17% in a week or two. I didn't have any bonds, so when omicron hit, it fell quite a bit. I know it may seem like baby food compared to crashes of 30% or more or so, but if I had just shrugged and went "meh" when it was more than halfway there, would that mean my risk tolerance is high or moderately high? or am I just "mentally handicapped" so to speak..

    I suppose, just to get a comparison or so of other people and what they'd do, would be a somewhat decent idea for my own risk tolerance as well.

    submitted by /u/Saddened_Umbreon
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    Sell Mutual Fund in Roth IRA with an unrealized loss

    Posted: 02 Jan 2022 04:05 PM PST

    Hi all!

    In my Roth IRA, I currently hold $6,500 of VMGRX with an unrealized loss of $1,000. I want to sell $5,000 of VMGRX to purchase another fund/ETF.

    By doing the above, I'm under the assumption that the $1,000 unrealized loss will remain in the $1,500 and I can wait it out as I expect VMGRX to go up in the future. Once it does, I expect to fully exit out of that position. This way, I can still profit as I exit out of this position.

    Normally in my taxable account, I would use SpecID to sell the lots that have the lowest gains to reduce my taxable gain. But in the Roth IRA, my brokerage considers all mutual fund holdings as Average Cost, so I can't pick lots.

    Did I understand this correctly? Is there anything I can do to ensure the above happens - should I call my brokerage about this before selling?

    submitted by /u/Activedarth
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    Fixed to Floating Preferred Stock

    Posted: 02 Jan 2022 07:48 PM PST

    Got a question about preferred stock to anyone that is familiar with these things. If a stock is currently fixed at 6.25 percent, however it will switch to floating (3 month libor + 4.172), does that mean, the preferred would actually yield less than the fixed amount it's currently yielding, if libor remains at .3 when the stock converts to floating yield?

    I'm looking specifically at NLYG (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1043219/000119312518007269/d520823d424b5.htm)

    submitted by /u/LogProgrammatically1
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    Portfolio Tracker - Ziggma vs Sharesight

    Posted: 02 Jan 2022 02:40 PM PST

    Are you using any portfolio trackers or analyzers? I have been doing some research on Ziggma, Sharesight, Personal Capital and few others. I see a need for such trackers to keep everything in one place and for tracking the assets, dividends, taxes etc.

    Sharesight seems old fashioned with unattractive UI, excel based uploads of data and not API or direct connect to any trading site. The trail version has only 10 stocks to manage which I believe is too less to arrive at any conclusion on ability to analyze. And it seems more ANZ specific software.. any thoughts?

    Ziggma may have better UI, has better trial features but am not sure on its capabilities vis a vis other softwares..

    If you have used any of them, what are your experiences, pros/cons - especially are they worth the subscription cost?

    submitted by /u/ramsdesk
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    Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - January 02, 2022

    Posted: 02 Jan 2022 02:01 AM PST

    Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you? What country do you live in?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
    • Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
    • And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
    [link] [comments]

    Investing borrowed money with 0,01% interest rate

    Posted: 02 Jan 2022 06:20 AM PST

    This post is intended to spark a healthy discussion around using governmental student loans for investment purposes.

    To give you some context. We are NOT talking about an American student loan but an European loan:

    1) The interest rate will be 0,01%. Nowhere near the insane predatory rates of my American counterparts. 2) We are talking about max € 20k in loans i.e ~ 1000 euro loan per month for 2 years. 3) The repayment program will start two years after the lending stops or post graduation. The repayment per month is 0,45% of total debt per month. Which equals to 90 euros a months 4) You would be 4 years in the stock market before the repayment even starts. It will be meant for long term investing 5) Even if the loan will not be used directly for investment, you would still profit by putting it into a cash bank account with 0,4% interest rate. Therefore a person could wait for a sip the dip during a market crash and pay the monthlies with regular income. Or choose to pay it back entirely 6) The euro inflation of >5,0% alone will eat away the debt. 7) This is not illegal in this country since this specific loan is not intended to pay for college tuition as an example. Ethical concerns is up for debate 8) you could call it leverage but it is no margin. Nobody will margin call if the investment drops in price.

    So you have two options. Either start investing directly and put the loan into an ETF. You may profit or not or just let it sit in your bank and decide to buy the dip or pay it bank instantly with no loss or profit.

    submitted by /u/AnalizedByMe
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    Which 1 stock would you buy, hold for 10 years only, and then never own again for the rest of your life?

    Posted: 02 Jan 2022 06:13 PM PST

    Ok, so I thought this would be an interesting follow up to the recent "what would you hold the rest of your life" thread. Unlike the other thread, there is no restriction on it being only one stock. Mutual funds and ETFs are fine.

    My own would be $FM iShares MSCI Frontier and Select EM ETF. As nations go through industrialization there is lots of growth, but once industrialized that explosive stage doesn't continue at that pace. Plus, I am enough of an optimist that I believe one day we will end world hunger, illiteracy, poverty, etc. Will there even be "emerging" markets funds in a future where 100% of all nations have "emerged"?

    submitted by /u/jackelfrink
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    Best account for saving money.

    Posted: 02 Jan 2022 10:11 AM PST

    Hello!

    So I live in the U.K., I currently own a house and I'm looking to buy a second to rent.

    I've been looking into investment opportunities in general, rather than leaving money sitting in a side account and I decided instead of stocks or bonds, I want to invest into real estate.

    I'm likely only going to setting aside £100-£200 a month. Some months I may well put aside more, but I could do £200 a month comfortably without taking too much money out of other aspects of my life.

    There are so many different types of accounts out there so I figure I'd ask people who may well have experience directly, rather than trawl the internet for hours.

    Thanks for any input!

    submitted by /u/amapiratebro
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