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    Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - January 28, 2022 Investing

    Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - January 28, 2022 Investing


    Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - January 28, 2022

    Posted: 28 Jan 2022 02:01 AM PST

    Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you? What country do you live in?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
    • Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
    • And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Visa Earnings - Visa stock gains as quarterly revenue tops $7 billion for the first time

    Posted: 27 Jan 2022 02:25 PM PST

    The company generated fiscal first-quarter net income of $4.0 billion, or $1.83 a share, up from $3.1 billion, or $1.42 a share, a year earlier. On an adjusted basis, Visa V earned $1.81 a share. Analysts tracked by FactSet were expecting $1.70 in both GAAP and adjusted earnings per share.

    Visa's revenue rose to $7.06 billion from $5.69 billion, while the FactSet consensus was for $6.79 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet weren't expecting Visa to cross the $7 billion revenue mark until the June quarter.

    Payments volume rose 20%, while processed transactions increased 21%. The company saw a 51% increase in cross-border volume when excluding intra-Europe transactions and a 40% bump in overall cross-border volume.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/visa-stock-gains-as-quarterly-revenue-tops-7-billion-for-the-first-time-11643318848

    submitted by /u/wballz
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    Apple earnings - revenue jumps 11%

    Posted: 27 Jan 2022 03:10 PM PST

    For some reason (update: apparently I now have to give my opinion on earnings threads) the previous post was deleted. Very odd, but anyway this time will post the figures in quotes…

    <insert mandatory opinion on earnings>

    Not a bad quarter.. but what does this market really want?

    IMO Apple is the reliable hold in any market. Latest earnings proves it

    <\opinion>

    Here is how Apple did in the quarter ending Dec. 25 versus Refinitiv consensus estimates:

    EPS: $2.10 vs. $1.89 estimated, up 25% year-over-year

    Revenue: $123.9 billion vs. $118.66 billion estimated, up 11% year-over-year

    iPhone revenue: $71.63 billion vs. $68.34 billion estimated, up 9% year-over-year

    Services revenue: $19.52 billion vs. $18.61 billion estimated, up 24% year-over-year

    Other Products revenue: $14.70 billion vs. $14.59 billion estimated, up 13% year-over-year

    Mac revenue: $10.85 billion vs. $9.52 billion estimated, up 25% year-over-year

    iPad revenue: $7.25 billion vs. $8.18 billion estimated, down 14% year-over-year

    Gross margin: 43.8% vs. 41.7% estimated

    Apple again did not provide official guidance about expectations for the current quarter. Apple hasn't provided guidance since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, citing uncertainty.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/27/apple-aapl-earnings-q1-2022.html

    submitted by /u/wballz
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    Which stocks from the rubble do you believe have been massively oversold?

    Posted: 27 Jan 2022 07:42 PM PST

    I can't find many. I believe Republic Services has gone down unnecessarily for no reason, and potentially even some high growth tech stocks like (dare I say) twitter I am looking to eventually start a position in if it falls another 20% or so.

    I do believe we are closer to an initial bottom and am looking for things to get into, but most are just too "growthy" for me along with short interest.

    In general, I do feel this correction has helped to stabilize the market from way overbought but there have to be opportunities somewhere.

    submitted by /u/BurnerBurnerBurns20
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    There have only been four months since 2001 where the US Stock Market has dropped more than 10%

    Posted: 28 Jan 2022 03:35 AM PST

    The 10% drop in the US Stock Market this month is very unusual.

    I went to Portfolio Visualizer and they have had monthly results for VTI (Total US Stock Market) since January 2001. In the 252 months, the S&P 500 has only dropped more than 10% in a month 4 times.

    SPY (S&P500) has records from 1993 and there have only been 5 months out of 336 that it dropped more than 10% in a month.

    There have only been six months where the stock market dropped more than 10% since 1985. 6 months out of 432 months

    This shows how severe the current stock market crash is!

    Does anyone have access to information from before 1985?

    (The largest 1-month drops were in October 2008 when it dropped 17.48% and in March 2020 when it dropped 13.91%)

    submitted by /u/BunChargum
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    Thematic ETFs are a bad idea

    Posted: 27 Jan 2022 08:00 AM PST

    These funds are created by marketing teams. While it sounds good on paper, most thematic ETFs underperform the broad market and their main goal is to justify higher costs.

    We had many great examples against such products in the past. However, everytime a specific sector outperforms, I see many people allocating a significant portion of their portfolio.

    In 2020 we had ICLN (Clean Energy), which dropped by almost 50% since it's peak last year and has never come close to it's starting price in 2008. Disruptive Technology was also considered a safe bet for outperforming the market and many people posted portfolios with ARKK, down more than 50%. I also remember similar trends with 3D printing and Cannabis and I'm sure there are many more good examples in the past.

    The new big thing is semiconductors. Everybody needs some SOXX since we will always need more computer chips in the digital age we live in. What people miss though is that the semiconductor industry is cyclical in nature and it has crashed multiple times before.

    SOXX is down 15% YTD which is only slightly more than the Nasdaq-100 to be fair. However, multiple companies in this sector have just released their quarterly numbers and the projections for the upcoming year are underwhelming. On top of that, the amount of investments to increase supply are staggering with intel spending 20 billion on a new factory and TSMC also building up supply significantly.

    I can't tell if SOXX will really underperform going forward but I want to warn people who think it's a safe bet.

    TLDR: Thematic ETFs are made by marketing to sell higher fees and that's about it. All you really need is a broad indexfund to cover stocks for your portfolio.

    Edit: Sombody pointed out that the dates are chosen arbitrarily to undermine my point which is true. In this paper from 2021, it was estimated that specialized ETFs underperform the market on a risk-adjusted basis and after fees by 3,1% per year. The title "Competition for Attention in the ETF Space" undermines my point that these product are probably created based on marketing.

    submitted by /u/NiknameOne
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    Bill Ackman buys Netflix stake worth $1.1bn after stock sell-off

    Posted: 26 Jan 2022 05:24 PM PST

    https://www.ft.com/content/ba5ab83c-3a84-4544-8b7f-3158b358ef69

    Bill Ackman, the hedge fund billionaire, has bought a $1.1bn stake in Netflix as he seeks to capitalise on a sharp sell-off that has almost halved the streaming company's market value in the past few months.

    Pershing Square, Ackman's investment group, has bought 3.1m shares of Netflix in recent days, making him a top-20 shareholder in the company, according to a letter to investors. At the current share price of $359.70, this equates to a stake of $1.1bn.

    "Many of our best investments have emerged when other investors, whose time horizons are short term, discard great companies at prices that look extraordinarily attractive when one has a long-term horizon", Ackman wrote.

    Netflix's stock price has dropped more than 40 per cent from an October peak of about $700 per share. The stock sold off more than 20 per cent on Friday after the company warned subscriber growth would slow substantially in the first three months of 2022.

    submitted by /u/ThomRedYYZ
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    What's the deal with gold bullion?

    Posted: 27 Jan 2022 11:46 PM PST

    Disclosure: I'm an amateur investor and certainly not a trader.

    I was looking at the price graphs for gold and silver while wanting to buy some bullion as a "safe" long-term investment. However, out of curiosity I overlaid the long-term (1970-present) graphs for gold and silver and noted a stark runaway of gold growth relative to silver post-2008, excluding only 2012.

    I know it's nothing useable professionally because it's two graphs with different price values, but it got me thinking. You can see the correlation in price between gold and silver, but that last year shows gold climbing while silver shrinks.

    Gold production is higher than ever thanks to the increasing industrialisation of Africa and Eurasia, and I can't imagine that production/industrials demand from jewelery and electronics is keeping pace. Assuming the trend continues, I don't see how the current price of gold is sustainable as the safe, long-term investment it's touted as. Can any vets help me understand this? Are we just relying on new markets to keep buying and hoarding it to maintain pricing?

    submitted by /u/naraic42
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    Is there a topic/industry/trend you wish you knew more about?

    Posted: 28 Jan 2022 04:07 AM PST

    I'm thinking of starting a newsletter where I research from a bunch of sources and summarise it, explain it simply. I'm hoping to learn more in the process, while also helping people save time!

    But I'm not sure which topics I should start with, so I'd like to know what you guys are curious about!

    It could be about the latest trends that you want to catch up on, countries/industries that you want to look into/invest in, or specific questions about cultures/finance/tech etc etc.

    submitted by /u/pptxperson
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    Help me figure out what I'm missing here, if anything.

    Posted: 27 Jan 2022 07:01 PM PST

    I've been tracking BBW for a few months now and the more I find out about Build-a-Bear the more bullish I get. Currently, half of my portfolio is invested in BBW calls (full disclosure, which isn't much) and I come before you today to see if you can help me find the hidden down side I'm missing.

    Their weakest point is admittedly their financial situation but if you compare to where they were a few years back they are definitely trending in the right direction. Where is their success coming from though? It's coming from a few places. If you do a quick Google search for "Heart Box" you'll find their new marketing campaign and in November they launched a new digital shopping experience using animated characters "that brings furry friends "to life" online", crossing Animal Crossing characters/themes with their new digital shopping experience. They were even written up in Newsweek "for their new innovative design blending "Animal Crossing" with their new releases."

    'Animal Crossing' Build-A-Bear: When and How to Buy New Collection Online

    Build a Bear releases new online shopping experience

    Recently (2 days ago today) they released a statement announcing a new product line and partnerships. They are going to roll out monthly "limited edition collectibles each month throughout the year", limited edition collectible outfits, expand on their membership program with 9 million subscribers, and are updating associate development and training programs. They're also beginning to partner with charitable organizations and "Build-A-Bear Foundation is...getting in on the fun and will be hosting its first-ever gala on Saturday, October 22, 2022 at St. Louis Union Station to honor company founder, Maxine Clark, and to raise funds for the Foundation's renewed literacy platform. " I know that's a lot but we're not done.

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/celebearating-25-years-of-heart-and-hugs-301467611.html

    With that out of the way, now, the financials. Every earnings report is a new high because every time they report they're reporting more earnings and a better financial position. While their income statement is a bit sketchy, their balance sheet and cash flow statement are showing positive cash flows, and I believe partly because they've been doing such a good job at keeping expenses steady while bringing in more revenue (Revenue/COGS is a lot higher). Gross profits are way up along with operating income and their EBIDTA is $41,000,000 TTM.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bbw/financials

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBW/financials/

    Now let's talk industry competitors and averages. BBW is being put in the specialty retail category along with Barnes and Noble Education, Express, Kirkland's, Natural Grocers and Tilly's. I don't know if these are great comparisons but BBW is outperforming nearly all of them T3M, and all but 1 TTM in appreciation of the stock. PE valuation is well below the mean and the price target according to a report I'm looking at from Fidelity is $33 (current price around $17).

    https://imgur.com/a/pcykkab (citations)

    Now that you see how profitable they've been and that they're competitive in their market, you may understand why the stock pumps so hard when they beat. Right now, after revising their guidance upwards a few weeks ago, they're forecasting an EPS of 0.92, or an increase of nearly 250%, for their March 8th earnings report.

    Honestly, the only thing I'm really worried about at this point is the market turning down. Of course they could come out with some unsuspecting bad news but even if they miss their ambitious revenue targets they're still going to more than double their last EPS number. So, please pick through this and let me know if I'm crazy or missing anything because right now I see no reason to divest.

    submitted by /u/Nblearchangel
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    UBS Purchases Wealthfront for $1.4Bn

    Posted: 26 Jan 2022 09:53 AM PST

    https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ubs-buy-us-wealth-management-specialist-wealthfront-14-bln-2022-01-26/

    Swiss bank UBS has agreed to buy Wealthfront, a U.S.-focused automated wealth management provider with more than $27 billion in assets under management, in an all-cash deal the two companies said was worth $1.4 billion.

    The acquisition of Wealthfront, which has more than 470,000 clients in the United States and caters to well-off millennial and Gen Z investors, is set to close in the second half of 2022.

    "UBS will accelerate its growth ambitions in the U.S., broaden the firm's reach among affluent investors and expand its distribution and capabilities," the two companies said in a statement on Wednesday.

    Wealthfront will become a wholly owned subsidiary of UBS (UBSG.S) and will operate as a business within UBS Global Wealth Management Americas, they added.

    "Adding Wealthfront's capabilities and client base to our global investment ecosystem will significantly boost our ability to grow our business in the U.S.," UBS CEO Ralph Hamers said.

    UBS Investment Bank is acting as financial adviser to UBS and Sullivan & Cromwell is legal counsel. Qatalyst Partners is Wealthfront's financial adviser and Fenwick & West is acting as legal counsel, the statement said.

    I wonder if this will start a trend, seems like most of the major financial outlets have some sort of robo option at this point, many of them far more robust than the independent guys that started the trend 8-10 years ago. Lots of these companies are already courting buyers since they are in the very late stages of private equity - some such as Robinhood and Acorns have gone public already, others seem to be exploring partnerships with larger entities.

    I'm interested to see if any of the ones that try to go it alone (IE not merge with a large financial institution) are around in the next decade.

    submitted by /u/MasterCookSwag
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    The reason to get into energy/oil before the summer

    Posted: 26 Jan 2022 08:33 PM PST

    • the energy sector remains inexpensive, at 11 times forward earnings estimates, versus an average of 17 times since 1986.

    • Cyclical, reopening, the cleanest balance sheets in the market..

    • If you believe international travel will come roaring back this summer, this is the place to be. If you believe crude will hit $100+ this summer, this is the place to be.

    • One of the only sectors not affected by raising rates, and instead is a purely cyclical play.

    • In virtually every OPEC meeting, the meetings have revolved around complaining about not being compensated for increasing output still many months ago. Why would these countries agree to increase output when they STILL do not believe they have been fairly compensated? I expect demand to continue to exceed output this year.

    • Historically, energy has been a Top 3 sector out of 11 in January 18 times. 8 out of 18 times, Energy finished top 3 for the year.

    submitted by /u/BurnerBurnerBurns20
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    Can someone explain this for me, how can this person own 1.5M Shares then jump to 160M Shares without a purchase history? (Finviz) (Imgur Link in description)

    Posted: 26 Jan 2022 11:20 PM PST

    https://imgur.com/a/Ke2n2IO

    Can someone explain this for me, how can this person own 1.5M Shares then jump to 160M Shares without a purchase history? (Finviz) (Imgur Link is in description)

    As per title, Basically, and then he goes back down to 1.3M Stocks but no sell orders/history that big. How is this possible?

    An explanation would be appreciated. Thanks from an amateur investor looking to learn :)

    submitted by /u/Teamemb99
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    Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - January 27, 2022

    Posted: 27 Jan 2022 02:01 AM PST

    Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you? What country do you live in?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
    • Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
    • And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Federal Reserve FOMC Statement

    Posted: 26 Jan 2022 11:10 AM PST

    The Federal Reserve has released their FOMC statement and can be found here - https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220126a.htm

    The implementation notes can be found here - https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220126a1.htm

    If you are interested in seeing the news conferences at 2:30pm ET - it is live streamed here - https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm

    If you are interested in reading professional commentary - r/econmonitor will likely have links in a day or two.

    submitted by /u/greytoc
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    Niche «Alternative» Skin (Ingame Item) Portfolio Experiment

    Posted: 27 Jan 2022 07:54 AM PST

    Short read, all prices in USD

    Invested Capital 4'000 to rent out digital items, 1 year total return 756.66 USD (18.92%), Monthly USD return range 36.97 (0.92%) to 92.2 (2.31%).

    Introduction

    Dear all Redditors, here is a long post about my personal experiment, I rented out digital ingame items to gamers. I would classify it as niche alternative investment. DO NOT think of this as financial advice in any shape or form. This is just what I did in my free time with my own money for entertainment only additionally, I do not have any affiliation with the site despite my normal use. Please find a simple FAQ below about the outlines of my experiment and general information about skins. At the end of the post you can see more information about the Experiment itself and my achieved results and Outlook.

    What is a skin, and what is the effect of it?

    Skins are virtual in game items that can change the look for a specific item in the game. This is visible for the owner of the skin and other players. These skins often only change the cosmetics of an item but not its behaviour. This results in them often having a Status symbol standing within the gaming world.

    Is it needed?

    Since skins are often purely cosmetics, they are not needed to play the game itself, however for consumers of different games its very common to own a skin or to. For some people it can increase the enjoyment, be a kind of collectable or even be regarded as an investment.

    Is it trade- / exchange able?

    Skins can be tradable in some cases or bound to an account, this varies from game to game.

    Quick overview of Counterstrike the game

    Counterstrike is one of the older Franchises in the gaming world and fans of the game are often very loyal to the game itself. Counterstrike is a free to play online game which is getting updated and evolved without a fully new release of the game. This is different in comparison to Games like FIFA, F1, NFL and so on, which get updated and newly released on a yearly basis.

    Will it stay in the Game or become obsolete?

    Skins can be bound to the specific version of a game, which means if a new version get released the skin can be non-transferable. Therefore, skins can often be regarded as bound to a game version for example Counterstrike Global Offensive. If a new Counterstrike is released we have no information about what happens with the skins.

    Where to buy skins

    Skins are often sold in the game itself or over a community platform like steam. Furthermore, skins can also often be purchased on 3rd party websites. Hereby its important to take great care, as not all these sites are reputable and post a potential risk to being scammed.

    Trade Locking on a skin (time i can not transfer a skin)

    Skins can also be soft bound to an account for a limited time duration. This is specifically done in Counterstrike with a skin being untradeable for 7 days after it changed owner. After this time is over, the skin itself becomes tradeable once again. However as mentioned before not all skins are tradeable. Furthermore every game handles this differently and skins can be non tradeable.

    Fees in the skin market

    Fees are often passed to the seller. Posting a skin on a site is often free but once the sell is completed the site itself takes a cut, this is usually a very large percentile and can reach up to 20% in some cases. However, the buyer doesn't have any fees.

    Data

    Data for historical prices can be collected over the internet to some extend. The quality is significantly lower compared to historical data from Stocks. As a result of this the price changes of the individual skins is not rcorded in this post and is a general topic of its own.

    Prices used

    There is a difference in prices from market prices to purchase prices since the skins can be bought under market value (steam market value) on third party sites. To reduces the complexity of this topic I decided just to record the initial investment (what have I paid in USD to get started). Furthermore, the Status of my experiment is ongoing, this makes calculating my sale value quite open for my personal bias and the selling fees would impact my returns on a significant basis.

    Returns collected

    Returns are accounted monthly for 2021 and from January 2022 from the 1 January to the 27 January.

    The experiment

    I decided to create a skin "portfolio" and rent these skins out on lootbear.com to generate passive income. This experiment is ongoing since over one year and I plan to continue. This is not hypothetical I used my own money for this experiment to achieve a better quality.

    Skin selection

    During my experiment I found significance importance of the skin itself. Not everything can be rented out to generate income. Not all my selected skins were successful therefore I reshuffled my portfolio a little with equal value skins. This however is ignored once again to reduce the complicity.

    Return structure

    The returns were less consistent than I was hoping for with an overall negative trend. The minimum returns were in December with 36.97 USD. And the maximum in May with 92.2 USD. The total earnings in 2021 of the Portfolio were 756.66 USD. Furthermore, the negative down trend was already broken in January 2022 with a recorded earning of 44.06 with 4 days left of January.

    The portfolio value of 4'000 USD consisted of 3'000 USD for the invested money (new money for the experiment) and 1'000 USD for the already owned skins. With the start capital of 4'000 USD and the 756.66 USD in earnings a yearly performance of 18.92% was achieved in 2021. The monthly returns ranged from 0.92% (worst 36.97) and 2,31% (best 92.2) and were quite subjected to change (high inconsistency). Within the returns a general linear negative trend was present.

    Reinvesting

    From the earnings, around 500 USD was reinvested in to the skin portfolio. The remaining 256 USD were withdrawn to my personal account

    Outlook and future of the experiment

    I will continue the experiment, however i will strictly limit it to self reinvesting.

    Comparing to other asset classes

    Comparing to other asset classes for example Stocks with dividends or Obligations, returns seem to be significant and excessive. However, this must be taken with a grain of salt since the portfolio within the experiment is subject to major risks, I mean major risks. See below under risk. Furthermore the collected data is small and limited therefore it is hard to make a comparison. Maybe i just got lucky.

    Risk involved

    This "Alternative" portfolio came with major risks. Since if a new version of the game gets released, the skins could become worthless within seconds. Risk of Scam is also high since a lot of this sites are not on the same trust and regulation level as Banks and regulated brokers, not even by a long shot. If the skins become account bound permanently the portfolio is wipe out within a second and non-recoverable.

    Forecasting

    The year 2021 showed a negative trend in my earnings however this was due to multiple factors such as rise of skin value. This rise in value made some skins to expensive to be rented out and therefore resulted in unused capital. In 2022 I "rebalanced" the portfolio to negate the effect. Still, I think a realistic return for this portfolio would be around the 50 USD mark. This would mean a Return of around 1.25% (50/4000) monthly. This seems to be a very high but realistic number and I will update on my journey if the community is interested.

    Regarding Scalability, I am not fully convinced my project is scalable, therefore I focus on improving my skin selection process (the quality of the individual parts of the portfolio). Maybe more to this in the future but since there is major risk involved, I am hesitant to put more money towards this fun entertainment project.

    Thanks for reading and i will try to answer most questions.

    submitted by /u/honeyjarM
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    Why should the market go back to 4800 versus why should the market go to 3800 and below

    Posted: 27 Jan 2022 03:06 PM PST

    Let's make a pros and cons list.

    Pro = let's get out of this 10% correction and go back to bull market where we slowly set new all time highs week after week

    Con = 10% correction roughly, what are reasons we are due for another 10% drop and then some?

    Disclaimer: I'm not going to "trade" or "change my investment" strategy based on any of this. It's just for fun/knowledge transfer/learning new perspectives in the community.

    A few weeks ago, the market decided a 37x P/E was ok. Then some new data/news came in and consensus changed and now we're hovering at a 25x P/E. Will we head back to the mean of 16x? What will it take for the market to justify a 37x P/E again? What's stopping us from heading to a 20x P/E?

    https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

    List anything you can think of.

    Cons:

    • Fed funding rate increasing from 0.25% to 1.25% within the next 18 months

    • inflation eating into profit margins/amount of free cash consumers have

    • lingering long term effects of rampant money printing that happened past 18 months

    • Fed announcing MBS purchases/QE coming to an end

    • national debt is high

    • productivity losses due to newly remote-first workforce

    • labor shortage influencing how many projects companies can get done

    • supply chain/chip shortages making business difficult

    • CoVID restrictions/lockdowns/waves/variants

    • geopolitical tensions like Ukraine/Russia, Taiwan/China

    • mid-term elections coming up in US

    • US housing market is broken in many areas due to increased demand and lowered supply

    Pros:

    • Real GDP growth was reported strong

    • Everything was fine as of January 4th (according to the market at least)

    • some people have lots of cash sitting on the sidelines pent up from not being able to go anywhere during pandemic/just having all of their assets appreciate with inflation, etc.

    • CoVID coming to an end

    • strong job market

    • companies might report strong earnings from increased sales during Q4 2020 of pandemic

    submitted by /u/waltwhitman83
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    I'm looking for unbiased reviews of Motley Fool Stock Advisor and other services, surprising hard to find recent ones (e.g. past two years).

    Posted: 27 Jan 2022 09:56 AM PST

    The top ones seem like thinly veiled MF-vetted articles. But I'd like to see as close to neutral reviews of them as possible, warts and all, if anyone has advice, even comparing them to other services. This one was close, but the writer has written for MF before.

    MF seems to have a very savvy online team, and I've subscribed in the past to their Stock Advisor Canada list which was heavy on pot stocks and spammy emails, so decided to not renew, LOL. I am willing to subscribe to regular U.S. Stock Advisor and think my bad experience with the Canadian may be colouring my opininion.

    They make extraordinary claims about their returns, and they have a large subscriber base, so they must be considered. I'm trying to do more buy and hold and a clearinghouse of recommendations to start from would be something to consider as paralysis by analysis is one of my fatal flaws.

    submitted by /u/TravellingBeard
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    Thoughts on Robinhood HOOD Earnings Release Thursday

    Posted: 26 Jan 2022 09:53 AM PST

    With current volatility, even with HOOD down around 90% from its highs, I'm thinking it could drop even further with poor or even mixed results.

    Could be an options play with Friday 1/28 expirations.......

    Everything I read suggests Robinhood continues to lose accounts by the boatload, crypto is crashing.

    Trading volume up considerably recently, but that is no help for the prior quarter being reported......

    And the Fed meeting today and tomorrow could also weigh on equities in general going into the end of the week, as well as traders not wanting to be long over the weekend.....

    Might be worth considering an options trade with Friday expiration.......

    submitted by /u/JackCrainium
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    VFIAX vs VOO, Why Not Identical Performance between MF and ETF? I own both.

    Posted: 26 Jan 2022 09:09 PM PST

    VFIAX was down -.15% today. VOO was down -.23% today.

    I've been using VOO only because Schwab charges me $75 per transaction. I thought these securities had identical performance with the same 510 company holding and identical weighting? Can someone please explain the delta between the two? Does this have something to do with price spread?

    Is this something that smooths out over time and days like today where their is a difference in performance is not the norm?

    I want to make sure that VOO is not more volatile just because it is traded throughout the day and not settled at close like MF's.

    Thank you.

    submitted by /u/intheyear3001
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    Is land a good investment?

    Posted: 26 Jan 2022 11:59 AM PST

    I live in a coastal town where homes are exorbitant, between 500k and 2 mil. However, there are a few pieces of land that I could afford. I'm wondering if this would be a good investment strategy.

    My friend and I have talked about investing in a larger lot together. Our hope is to build a home and potentially add a small short term rental for the summers when people are vacationing.

    Any advice in this arena is so appreciated—I've been wanting to dip into real estate for a while and hoping this might be my chance to start! Thanks

    submitted by /u/sheetmaskandpizza
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    Where should I put end of the year bonus (25k)

    Posted: 27 Jan 2022 12:34 AM PST

    I received a 25k year end bonus from work and wanted to try something a bit different, outside the box, of how I normally invest. I use a financial advisor and have been doing so for years. Doing just fine to point where I have the opportunity to take long shots like this.

    I wanted to get an idea of what some random people on reddit would do if they had 25k to invest in whatever right now. Should I put it into index funds, reits, mutual funds, crypto?

    I do want it to be longterm 2 years minimum. I know I'm going to get some crazy responses so I please ask you all to at least explain your reasoning on why you think it's the best option to do xyz.

    Edit: 5 years minimum, but if it's going good I'd keep it for 20 years if it's giving out good dividends. Leaning towards vtsax for more long term but it needs to dip more. Same with qqq and voo and vti, all those are still mountains. If they dip another 20 percent then I'm going in. Will know by March.

    Not trying to buy into multiple stuff. Trying to keep it simple (one or two max).

    I live in a high cost of living area and rotate from east and west coast so I won't be buying any real estate anytime soon. Waiting for the housing market to crash so until then it's more cost efficient to rent. 10 years ago you could put down 25k on a decent property and have no pmi insurance. Today you need at least 100k for the same property. I won't buy in the ghetto.

    submitted by /u/Vanhelsing2020
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    Transferring and reinvesting shares from Blackrock to Fidelity account tax question.

    Posted: 26 Jan 2022 03:45 PM PST

    I have a few thousand dollars worth of shares in a BlackRock mutual fund that I'm looking to tranfer to my equally small Fidelity brokerage account. The reason would be to consolidate the investments into one account and hopefully reinvest the value into something more in line with my goals. As in sell the shares of the mutual fund and buy an s&p 500 tracking index fund.

    What would be the best way to do this? Would I have to take the tax hit for the capital gains when I sell the mutual fund shares?

    submitted by /u/StillLooksAtRocks
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    Thoughts on the vanguard ETF VYM

    Posted: 26 Jan 2022 10:13 AM PST

    You always see a lot of the vanguard funds being talked about being being VOO or VTI. Occasionally VOOV or VOOG. I am not too familiar with the index fund investing situation but I did find the VYM ETF.. The high dividend yield sounds good in theory and the price point seems more accessible to me.

    Im a lurker on this sub, r/stocks and all the associated subreddits etc… but I have not once seen somebody bring up VYM, which I find curious.

    It seems to have quite low volatility comparatively which is a point in its favor.

    Expense ratio is .06 and the P/E is 17.99

    Seeing if anybody has any thoughts or information on this ETF and if it is worth it.

    Thanks

    submitted by /u/clintnorth
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    Small cap investing value

    Posted: 26 Jan 2022 05:24 PM PST

    Redditors of r/investing what 10k should i look at next? I am looking for that small cap that has hidden value. The gem that I should be looking at that is undervalued in its sector. What is your opinion on that company? Why should I invest in it? Where do you find value where others do not? I don't have a crystal ball but basically I will be looking for discounted stock in their sector that I think will grow year over year in the next ten years.

    submitted by /u/grendel54
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