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    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Dec 27, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Dec 27, 2021


    r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Dec 27, 2021

    Posted: 27 Dec 2021 02:30 AM PST

    These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts.

    Some helpful links:

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Despite supply issues and omicron, holiday sales rise 8.5%

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 03:50 PM PST

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/26/despite-supply-issues-and-omicron-holiday-sales-rise-8point5percent.html

    Holiday sales rose at the fastest pace in 17 years, even as shoppers grappled with higher prices, product shortages and a raging new Covid-19 variant in the last few weeks of the season, according to one spending measure. Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks all kinds of payments including cash and debit cards, reported Sunday that holiday sales had risen 8.5% from a year earlier. Mastercard SpendingPulse had expected a 7.4% increase. The results, which covered Nov. 1 through Dec. 24, were fueled by purchases of clothing and jewelry.

    Holiday sales were up 10.7% compared with the pre-pandemic 2019 holiday period. By category, clothing rose 47%, jewelry 32%, electronics 16%. Online sales were up 11% from a year ago and 61% from 2019. Department stores registered a 21% increase over 2020.

    A broader picture will be revealed next month when the National Retail Federation, the nation's largest retail trade group, comes out with its combined two-month results in mid-January. The results will be based on an analysis of the November and December sales figures from the Commerce Department. Analysts will also be dissecting the fourth-quarter financial results from different retailers that are slated to be released in February. Overall, analysts had expected a strong holiday season, fueled by early shopping that started back in October in anticipation of a product shortage. Consumers were also determined to celebrate the holidays after a muted one a year ago. Still, November saw a slowdown in retail sales, in part because of the early shopping. And omicron, which has fast become the dominant version of the virus in the United States, has now spoiled holiday plans for many Americans who have had to cancel gatherings last minute. The National Retail Federation said early in December that holiday sales were on track to beat its already record-breaking forecasts for an increase of 8.5% to 10.5% compared to the year-ago period. Holiday sales increased 8.2% in 2020 when shoppers, locked down during the early part of the pandemic, splurged on pajamas and home goods, mostly online.

    The group expects that online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, will increase between 11% and 15%. The numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants. Holiday sales have averaged gains of 4.4% over the past five years, according to the group.

    submitted by /u/WickedSensitiveCrew
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    Debating between GOOGL and TSLA, minimum 5+year hold

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 07:18 PM PST

    Sold the house and downsized into a nicely located apartment. Wife and I have spent the last two weeks doing our best to understand stocks in general...realized it's not our strongest forte so after maxing our 403b's we have about 30k left for a long term hold. As much as we enjoy being school teachers it's not all bags of cash and rock star fame so doing our best to set up that nest (egg). All our milestones will interestingly happen in 5 year increments: kids to college, then my retirement, then hers. Any thoughts or input is *greatly* appreciated, and hope anyone reading this had a super groovy Christmas!

    submitted by /u/lance2k2
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    So I’m 20 and just inherited 20‘000 bucks and want to invest in some Dividend stocks. What are your top 5 Dividend stocks/ETFs?

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 10:21 AM PST

    Hey guys, I've already invested a bit, mainly 4k into VT, 500 each into AAPL, NVDA, AMD and PLTR and another 200 into AMD.

    Now I just stumbled upon this subreddit and was wondering what your top 5 stocks/ETFs are that pay out a lot of dividends. Cause I don't know too much about the dividends side of stocks I just invested in Companys I believe in.

    submitted by /u/skrt_xocarti
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    Palantir Technologies (PLTR): What's it worth? "Warren B" Analysis

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 06:32 PM PST

    Happy Holidays Friends! Here's my analysis on one of the most discussed and misunderstood companies over the last year. As one of the Paypal Mafia's creations, Palantir Technologies ("Palantir", "PLTR" or the "Company") originated from fighting fraud at Paypal using in-house analytical tools and human analysts to interpret big data. Paypal Mafia companies have performed well to say the least, including Tesla, LinkedIn, Yelp, YouTube, and others. Hopefully this post will help you determine whether you think PLTR will end up in the same conversation.

    Company Overview

    Palantir Technologies, Inc. builds software platforms for institutions. The Company operates through two segments, Commercial and Government. The Company has built two software platforms, Palantir Gotham and Palantir Foundry. The Gotham software platform is constructed for analysts at defense and intelligences agencies. It enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, and helps the United States and allied military personnel. The Foundry software platform creates a central operating system for organization's data where individual users can integrate and analyze the data.

    Palantir analyzes big data and uses software to gather and process information that can identify connections, patterns, and trends. The main purpose is for organizations to make better decisions.

    Summary of software platforms

    Go-To-Market Strategy & Select Customers

    Financial Snapshot

    Key Management

    Alexander Karp, CEO/Co-Founder

    Peter Thiel, Chairman/Co-Founder

    Stephen Cohen, President/Co-Founder

    Shyam Sankar, COO

    History

    • Paypal dealt with credit card fraud and created software to identify suspicious activity on their platform
    • Peter Thiel challenged Alexander Karp and Stephen Cohen to engineer a system to identify terrorist networks and financial fraud
    • The Company believes their software can stop terrorist attacks, discover new medicines, gain an edge in financial markets, etc.
    • In 2020, Palantir went public via a direct listing at a $16.0B valuation
    • The Company plans to continue its growth domestically and internationally, but also across segments into the commercial space

    Total Addressable Market

    Palantir believes its total addressable market (TAM) to be approximately $119.0B, accounting for all countries and companies where it is willing to sell its software. This estimate is arrived at by multiplying the number of potential customers ($56B, 6,000 commercial companies with over $500MM in revenue) and Government agencies that align with liberal democracies ($63B)

    Preliminary Risks

    • Security risks related to Government customers and information leaks that could damage the Company's reputation
    • Customer concentrations: The top 20 customers represented 61% of 2020 revenue; The top 3 customers accounted for 25% of 2020 revenue. Existing customers account for a large portion of revenue and therefore any termination of contracts may have a substantial impact on revenue
    • AI and Big Data are relatively new industries with intense competition
    • Customer contract terms and agreements. The majority of contracts may be terminated by the customer at any time
    • Potential decline in US or other Government budgets, spending, priorities that may cause delays or unrealized value of customer contracts
    • High revenue growth trajectory may be unsustainable given sales efforts and seasonality in projects or budgets

    Q3 Results & Commentary

    • Revenue increased by $102.8 million, or 36%, for the three months ended September 30, 2021 compared to the three months ended September 30, 2020
    • Revenue from Government increased by 34% and Commercial increased by 37% from Q3 2020
    • Cost of Revenue decreased by 42% for Q3 2021 compared to Q3 2020
    • Sales & Marketing expenses decreased by 54% and R&D expenses decreased by 70% from Q3 2020
    • Palantir continues to see high growth, expecting 30%+ revenue growth for 2021 and the next four years through 2025

    Income Statement Projections / Assumptions (here)

    • Sales: 30-40% growth per year 2021E - 2024E, 10-20% growth per year 2025E - 2030E

    Additional Commentary:

    1. Conservative estimates based on the Company's 2021 Revenue Guidance of 30%+ through the next four years
    2. Average customer revenue was $7.9MM in 2020 and $7.0MM in LTM 9/30/21 Palantir benefited from increases in Government budgeting and spending, and growth in commercial customers
    3. Covid-19 resulted in more contracts in healthcare, including a contract with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
    • Gross Margin: 77.5% - 82.0% as a % of Sales 2021 - 2030
    • EBITDA Margin: Expansion from (28.4%) - 52.8% as a % of Sales 2021 - 2030
    • Depreciation & Amortization: In line with historicals
    • Interest Expense and Other: Palantir paid down its debt in 2021

    Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (here)

    PLTR doesn't have any debt as of 9/30/2021

    • Estimated Equity Value based on 9/30/2021 10-Q Balance Sheet
    • Weighted Average Cost of Capital based on conservative estimates for cost of equity given the uncertainty of cash flows and industry risks
    • Cost of Equity: 10.0%
    • Terminal Value Growth Rate: 3.0% based on US GDP estimates
    • Enterprise Value: $30,130.7MM
    • Equity Value: $32,613.8MM
    • Share Outstanding (in millions): 1,906.59
    • ANALYST "Street" CONSENSUS ESTIMATED SHARE PRICE: $25.00
    • BASE CASE ESTIMATED SHARE PRICE: $17.11

    Outlook & Final Thoughts

    Based on these growth expectations and dilutive effects of stock based compensation, Palantir is slightly overvalued/fairly valued at $18.93 as of 12/23/21 close. This may change in the future given the variance in the Company's cash flows, growth prospects, research & development, new products, average revenue per customer, compensation structures, and overall industry growth.

    I personally like PLTR as a long term portfolio hold because of two main reasons. First, I believe in Alexander Karp as a founder and his vision. You can see his passion for the company and its product. Palantir doesn't have a sales team and solely relies on developing world-class products to attract customers. Secondly, the total addressable market size is massive. Although Palantir is a B2B model, I believe they can eventually compete with companies like that of salesforce or other enterprise platform systems. Lastly, I will add that the #1 risk to equity holders is the dilution of shareholders through stock based compensation; however, it is likely to diminish in future years and should be treated as an "expense" for acquiring talented employees. I'd recommend watching Alex Karp interviews and Palantir's YouTube videos for more information.

    Sources: Palantir Technologies, Inc. 2020 10-K Annual Report (SEC Website), Palantir Technologies, Inc. 3rd Qtr 2021 10-Q and Investor Presentations, Palantir Technologies, Inc. 2020 Annual 10-K and Investor Presentations, Palantir Technologies, Inc. Company Website, including events and presentation, Financial Data sourced from Google Finance, Yahoo Finance, WeBull Desktop Platform

    Disclaimer: All information is expressed as my own thoughts and opinions. Please do your own research and invest safely!

    submitted by /u/infinitelyWinter
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    What individuals stocks had a good 2021 and flew under the radar?

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 08:42 AM PST

    I have noticed whenever there is a thread about what to do with x amount of cash. The top replies are always just buy SPY/VOO/VTI.

    Those that invest in individual stocks were there any that had a great year but flew under the radar on stock subs?

    submitted by /u/AbuSaho
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    40% allocation at AMZN. Should I rebalance?

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 09:06 AM PST

    I bought into Amazon few years ago, the stock increased in value significantly and now I ended up having 40% of portfolio in it. Im 30, investment horizon is retirement - so hopefully 15 years, not a big deal if it takes 35, I have healthy income and like my job.

    Should I rebalance? Or continue to ride the winning wave? I can see 2 conflicting dogmas here - diversify vs winners keep winning. If it was one of these overvalued bubble stocks the choice would be obvious, but with Amazon I feel that the upside potential is still high…

    submitted by /u/scodagama1
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    Conflicted Between Putting $300 on PayPal, SoFi or Visa

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 07:20 PM PST

    So I have ~$300 left to invest this year. I want to just get my feet wet in some financial sector stocks because I do not own any. I am really torn between these 3 options when it comes to where to start with the finance sector.

    I use Visa everyday and V has been a consistent stock for along time which is attractive. As far as a long term "safe" bet Visa seems like a solid option for the start of my diversification.

    PayPal is a name I hear thrown around all the time on these subreddits however I do not understand the hype. Now I am not a person that spends a ton of time diving deep into companies which is where I could be missing something but I do not see Venmo being added as a payment option on Amazon being a game changer for PayPal. For me personally, why would I use Venmo on Amazon when I can just use my VISA credit or Debit Cards? Again, I am not very educated about PayPal as a company so I invite someone to tell me why my belief is wrong.

    SoFi is the company I just used to refinance my student loans. I do not know much about them aside from their seamless refinancing system and having the best interest rate (for me at least) out of the other companies in loan refinancing. This is the only thing I know about SoFi. If I go with SoFi, why pick them over Visa or PayPal?

    submitted by /u/Retrosss
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    What value stocks are you adding to in 2022?

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 02:16 PM PST

    By now, we're all well aware that stocks with lofty valuations have been under scrutiny with higher interest rates imminent. What lower valued stocks are you looking at going into the new year?

    Mine is Renewable Energy Group $REGI. P/E is 11. Currently near 52 wk lows. Low debt. Recent insider purchases. Increasing cash. Book value per share is $33, currently trading around $42. Biofuels including renewable diesel will have secular tailwinds as companies aim to reduce their carbon footprint.

    My only other value-ish holdings are Target (P/E: 16) and Micron (PE: 15). Curious what other companies people are looking at that might be less affected by a correction in valuations.

    submitted by /u/MinnesotaPower
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    Margin Interest Rates

    Posted: 27 Dec 2021 01:38 AM PST

    I have been scouring the margin handbook for TD ameritrade and have more questions than answers. I have looked at past reddit posts and have not found answers yet.

    How and when is margin interest rate charged?

    All I found in the handbook was that for a margin account, interest accrues and is paid once the stock position is sold...

    So this is how I understand margin - I have 100,000$ cash and 200,000$ stock buying power in my margin account. Say I buy 80,000$ worth of stock which uses 40,000$ cash and 80,000$ stock buying power, which has me borrow 40,000$. Pretend I hold this for a full year with TDA's 9.0% interest rate. Then I proceed to sell for a 0$ gain as the stock traded sideways and just broke even. Am I charged (40,000 * 0.09) = 3,600$ for holding this stock position thus only receiving 36,400$ back? Or more as the amount is compounded daily?

    OR...

    Is interest only charged on "Day Trade Buying Power" that I hold over night once "Stock buying power" is depleted? For example, Day Trade BP might be 400,000$ while Stock BP is 200,000$. If I day trade 300,000$, am I charged interest on just the 100,000$ that is beyond my "stock buying power"?

    Clarification would be helpful

    I will also ask customer service in the morning...

    submitted by /u/Pohlavi
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    General Motors EV Partner Sees Director Make Big Stock Buy

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 05:06 PM PST

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/gm-ev-mp-materials-51640124931

    MP Materials stock surged earlier this month after the U.S. rare-earths miner reached a deal "to develop a fully integrated U.S. supply chain for rare-earth magnets" with General Motors . In the wake of the higher stock price, MP Materials director Randall Weisenburger bought up shares.

    MP Materials (ticker: MP) announced Dec. 9 that it will supply rare-earth materials, alloy, and finished magnets for the motors of electric vehicles to GM (GM) "with a gradual production ramp that begins in 2023." Planned vehicles under the deal include more than a dozen models, among them the GMC Hummer EV, Cadillac Lyriq, and Chevrolet Silverado EV." MP Materials also said it would build the company's first magnetics factory in Fort Worth, Texas, sourcing materials from MP Materials' Mountain Pass, Calif., mine. MP Materials stock sports a year-to-date gain of 34%, compared with a 26% rise in the S&P 500 index.

    Weisenburger paid $3.5 million on Dec. 15 for 86,901 MP Materials shares, a per-share average price of $40.10. Those shares now represent his total ownership of MP Materials stock, according to a form he filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. A former chief financial officer of Omnicom Group (OMC), Weisenburger joined MP Materials' board in 2020 when the company went public through a special-purpose acquisition company.

    Weisenburger declined to comment on his stock purchase.

    On Dec. 10, after the pact with GM was announced, J.P. Morgan analyst Michael Glick increased his December 2022 price target on MP Materials stock to $52 from $45. Glick, who rates MP Materials at Overweight, ​​cited forecasts for higher rare-earth prices. MP Materials' move into rare-earth magnets "could drive multiple expansion for the company," he wrote in a research report.

    submitted by /u/_hiddenscout
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    Will this trigger a wash sale?

    Posted: 27 Dec 2021 12:28 AM PST

    I would like to realize my loss on PYPL to offset my other capital gains. Would purchasing ETFs like IPAY that hold 6.4% of PYPL and other fintech services considered 'similar' enough to trigger a wash sale?

    submitted by /u/h4ppidais
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    Im looking to start a portfolio with stocks.

    Posted: 27 Dec 2021 01:56 AM PST

    I have about 15k usd that i can use, and that i am ok with if lost. I am looking for a portfolio that i will keep for years to come. 3years+. I read that stocks are historically expensive right now. I should probably wait with starting? And if someone have recommendations for what stocks to look for. I read that google and apple are good ones? Your help is appreciated.

    submitted by /u/EfficiencyLivid
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    If you had the choice to start out with either VOO or VTI, which would you start buying.

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 07:45 PM PST

    My friend and I are wanting to get into investing at an early age. We are stuck between the two, with me leaning more towards VOO, while he is going to go the VTI route. Which would you all start out with.

    submitted by /u/MAndrewNg
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    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning December 27th, 2021

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 09:41 AM PST

    Good Sunday afternoon to all of you here on r/stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead.

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning December 27th, 2021.

    It looks like Santa Claus is on his way to stock investors in the week ahead - (Source)


    After a period of turbulence, the decks may be cleared for a good old-fashioned Santa Claus rally in the week ahead.


    Stocks were higher in the past week, after a rough stretch that continued into Monday. The S&P 500 recovered and is up about 3.5% for December as of Thursday.


    "I think all the things we've been concerned about for the month of December to a certain extent, are in the rearview mirror," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. "We know what the [Federal Reserve] is going to do. We know while this new variant spreads faster, it's not as dangerous, and we know Build Back Better legislation is now 2022′s business... I think the market can find a path of least resistance to the upside as we wrap things up."


    The market has a lot of history on its side that trading days before the year-end are positive for stocks. According to the "Stock Trader's Almanac," the Santa Claus rally period — the final five trading days of the current year and first two of the new year — is mostly a time when the stock market gains. The S&P 500 has been positive nearly 79% of the time on those days since 1928 and has gained an average of about 1.7% per rally.


    Add to that the fact that when the market has had a strong year, the momentum historically has carried into the final trading sessions. In that regard, the S&P 500 is up about 25% for the year.


    According to Bank of America, when the S&P 500 has already seen such solid gains, the final six sessions are positive. Since 1980, there have been 10 instances where the S&P 500 was up 20% or more going into the last stretch of trading and in nine of those years, it ended the final six days higher.


    A notably rocky December

    Stocks head into the final sessions of the year with a tailwind, after several weeks of choppiness.


    "This has been the fourth rockiest December since 1987. The average daily move for the S&P 500 has been 1.1%," said Hogan. "That's a lot of action." The most volatile Decembers were in 2000, 2008 and 2018.


    Hogan said volume in the last week of the year is typically 20% to 30% lower than normal. "In a low-volume environment, when the market picks a direction, it tends to move in that direction in a robust fashion," he said.


    Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group, said positive news on the Covid omicron variant this week was the catalyst that reversed the market's sell-off. There were studies showing omicron to be milder than other variants of the coronavirus. Further, the Food and Drug Administration approved pills from Pfizer and Merck for the treatment of Covid-19.


    "Whereas the market was focusing on everything that could go wrong since Thanksgiving, people are now just taking a sunnier view," Hickey said. He expects that view will likely prevail in the coming week.


    "As we get toward the beginning of January, we'll see how markets are positioning themselves," Hickey said. He said investors will start to turn their attention toward the upcoming earnings season; they do not seem to be overly optimistic, which could spell some upside surprises.


    "Going into the last earnings season, there was a ton of negative sentiment based on supply chains, inflation and labor shortages. We ended up having a decent earnings season. It's more mixed this time," Hickey said.


    High-growth stocks hit

    The selling in November and December dented stocks. Some high-growth stocks and ETFs were down sharply as investors moved into safety plays. Funds that took their lumps in December include the Ark Innovation ETF and iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF.


    "I think some of these growth areas that have gotten hit hard will do a little better. They could see a bounce early in the year," Hickey said. "They sold off for a number of reasons. One was concerns over the Fed. Also people had made so much money, and the feeling was taxes are going up. People were selling stocks ahead of higher taxes. That's more of a question now with a divided Congress."


    In the past week, the fate of President Joe Biden's Build Back Better stimulus legislation was put in doubt when West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin said he would not support it. Analysts expect to see further versions of the spending plan.


    Bespoke's Hickey said January could be positive for stocks, and with opportunities for some stocks to bounce if stung by tax-loss selling. "The January effect is a positive. All those tax-loss sellers that compressed multiples are buyers," he said.


    One of the stocks he's watching is Boeing. "It's one of the few big cap stocks that was down a lot. I think you can see that," he said. The airplane maker has gained more than 6% in the past week, but it's still down 16% over the past six months.


    Rate hikes and housing data

    With the Fed forecasting three interest rate hikes for next year, economic data of all sorts is front and center for the markets.


    The housing market has been a huge beneficiary of the near-zero rate policy, so all data on housing will be closely watched. On Tuesday, home prices data will be released. Pending home sales are to be reported Wednesday.


    David Petrosinelli, senior trader at InspereX, said the next big data point for the market will be December jobs in early January. He expects markets to be relatively quiet next week.


    "Next week is generally a snoozer, the week before New Year's," he said. "All the action's going to come in the first week in January."


    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    S&P Sectors for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Thursday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF THURSDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Thursday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Thursday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Thursday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

    Do You Believe In The Santa Claus Rally?

    "If Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall." —Yale Hirsh

    December is widely known as one of the best months of the year for stocks, but most don't realize that the majority of the gains happen in the second half of the month.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Equity strength at this time of the year is widely known as the Santa Claus Rally, but the term is somewhat misunderstood. Discovered in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, creator of the Stock Trader's Almanac (carried on now by his son Jeff Hirsch), the real Santa Claus Rally is the final five trading days of the year and first two trading days of the following year, not just December. In other words, the official Santa Claus Rally is set to begin Monday, December 27. Fun trivia this is the latest any Santa Claus Rally can start and latest it has started in 11 years.

    So how likely are these seven trading days to be higher? Well, there isn't a single seven-day combo out of the full year that is more likely to be higher than the 78.9% of the time higher we've seen previously during the Santa Claus Rally. Additionally, these seven days are up an average of 1.33%, which is the third-best seven-day combo of the year. Do you believe yet?

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Taking a bigger picture view, here is the win rate of any single day. We are in the middle of an incredible 11 day streak with each day having a greater than 50% chance of being higher.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    "Why are these seven days so strong?" asked LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "Whether optimism over a coming new year, holiday spending, traders on vacation, institutions squaring up their books—or the holiday spirit—the bottom line is that bulls tend to believe in Santa."

    The LPL Chart of the Day illustrates how the Santa Claus Rally has performed since 2000. Usually these seven days are higher, which leads to strength in January and beyond. But what stands out to us is that the times Santa didn't come, January was lower each time. Now do you believe?

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Let's take a closer look at what happens when things don't go according to plan. Remember, Yale Hirsch told us, "If Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall." This is because the New York Stock Exchange is at the corner of Broad and Wall Streets.

    Going back to the mid-1990s, there have been only six times Santa failed to show in December. January was lower five of those six times, and the full year had a solid gain only once (in 2016, but a mini-bear market early in the year). "Considering the bear markets of 2000 and 2008 both took place after one of the rare instances that Santa failed to show makes believers out of us. Should this seasonally strong period miss the mark, it could be a warning sign," explained Santa Claus believer Detrick.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    We wish everyone a great end to 2021 and happy holidays!


    NASDAQ & Russell 2000 Most Bullish Day After Christmas

    This year the day after Christmas is also the beginning of the Santa Claus Rally. The Santa Claus Rally was discovered and named by Yale Hirsch in 1972 and published in our 1973 Stock Trader's Almanac as the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year. This short, sweet rally is usually good for about 1.3% on the S&P 500, but the real significance of the SCR is as an indicator.

    It is our first seasonal indicator of the year ahead. Years when there was no Santa Claus Rally tended to precede bear markets or times when stocks hit significantly lower prices later in the year. As Yale's famous line states (2021 Almanac page 116 and 2022 Almanac page 118): "If Santa Claus Should Fail To Call, Bears May Come to Broad and Wall."

    Since 1988, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have enjoyed the greatest frequency of gains and average gain on the day after Christmas. NASDAQ has advanced 72.7% of the time with an average move of +0.39%. Small-caps have also advanced 72.7% of the time with an average advance of +0.39%. DJIA and S&P 500 have slightly softer records, but bullish nonetheless. Two days after Christmas, the market remains bullish however, the frequency and magnitude of gains does ease with NASDAQ bringing up the rear.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P 500 Performance Around Christmas

    With Christmas just two days away and markets closed tomorrow, many investors are on the watch for a 'Santa Claus' rally. In all periods in the post-WWII era, the average S&P 500 performance in the week leading up to Christmas is a gain of 0.5% with positive returns just over two-thirds of the time. The average performance in the week after Christmas is slightly higher at 0.7%, but the consistency of positive returns is the same. This year, the S&P 500 has performed considerably better than its pre-Christmas average gaining 2.25% through midday Thursday. Since 1945, the S&P 500 has traded up more than 1% in the week leading up to Christmas 23 times (30.3%), and in those prior 23 years, the average week after Christmas performance was actually a bit weaker than normal with an average gain of 0.3% and positive returns just over 60% of the time. That compares to an average gain of 0.7% in the same week for all years since 1945.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The table below lists each year since 1945 that the S&P 500 was up over 1% in the week leading up to Christmas along with how it performed in the final week of the year. Of those 23 prior years, there were actually 14 where the S&P 500 rallied 2% or more in the week leading up to Christmas with the last occurrence seven years ago back in 2014. While those types of gains may have put investors in a good mood for the Christmas holiday, it didn't leave much powder left for the last week of the year as the median gain was just 0.05% with positive returns half of the time.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Best and Worst Performers Since Thanksgiving

    Although the Russell 1000 is now pretty much right back in line with its pre-Thanksgiving level, certain stocks have seen dramatic moves during that same span. Of the 25 stocks that have experienced the largest gains since 11/25, 19 were down on the year leading up to Thanksgiving, and the average stock had declined by 20.0%. Since then, those 25 stocks have gained an average of 13.1%, with Smartsheet (SMAR) and Chegg (CHGG) leading the group with gains of 22.2% and 20.4%, respectively.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Of the Russell 1000 members that have performed the worst since Thanksgiving, their average YTD performance leading up to Thanksgiving was a gain of 85.7% while the median performance was much less but still an impressive +25.6%. Of these 25 stocks, 18 were positive YTD through Thanksgiving, and the average decline since then is 23.6%. Everbridge (EVBG) and DocuSign (DOCU) topped this list with declines of 37.2% and 36.6% since Thanksgiving, respectively.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Based on the data above, it appears as if there was some rotation in the Russell 1000 as investors shifted from leaders to laggards. Essentially, the worse a stock performed between the start of the year and Thanksgiving, the better it has performed since, at least for the top 25 movers to the upside. For the 25 stocks that have declined the most since Thanksgiving, there seems to be very little correlation between the size of the move to the upside before Thanksgiving and performance since then. In the charts below, GameStop (GME) Upstart (UPST) were omitted from the chart but included in the R squared calculation due to visual distortion.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    December Volatility Spike

    December typically tends to be a month of lower stock market volatility following a period in late October and early November when volatility tends to peak. This year, however, has been quite different. As of yesterday's close, the one-month rolling average of one-day absolute moves for the S&P 500 was 1.06%. (This means the S&P 500 has been averaging a daily change of +/-1%+ over the last month.) As shown in the dark blue line below, this has actually been the most volatile one-month period for all of 2021. As the light blue line shows, daily volatility for the S&P 500 is usually plummeting at this time of year as traders typically slow down dramatically around the holidays.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Since the 5-day trading week was established back in September 1952, December has historically been the least volatile month of the year, averaging an absolute daily change of 0.61%. This year, the average daily change since the start of December has been 1.07%, which is far above the next closest level seen in March 2021 (+/-0.83%). October, the month that has historically been the most volatile month of the year, ranked 6th in 2021.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    So what tends to occur when volatility inverses its seasonal trend in December? Since 1953, there have been five prior years where December was the most volatile month of the year: 1973, 1978, 1985, 1995, and 2018. Below we show how the S&P 500 performed in January following the five prior years listed, and we also show the full next-year change. As shown, January was positive in four of five instances, and the one January that saw a decline was in 1974 when it fell only 1%. In the most recent occurrence, the 9.2% decline in December of 2018 was followed by a 7.9% move higher in January of 2019. In the following year, the median performance of the S&P 500 was +14.6%.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Bears Still Outnumber Bulls Despite Rally

    The S&P 500 is currently at record highs, but recent sentiment readings are still relatively bearish. However, this isn't necessarily negative for markets, as it gives the opportunity for bears to shift their position, which would likely be accompanied by an increase in equity purchases. AAII's reading on bullish sentiment moved from 25.2% last week to 29.6% this week. This week's reading is still 6.7 percentage points below the average since 2009.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    In turn, bearish sentiment dropped from 39.3% down to 33.9%, which is only 1.8 percentage points higher than the historical average level. This week's reading was also the second-largest week-over-week decline in bearish sentiment since September 9th.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Neutral sentiment ticked higher by 1.2 percentage points, resulting in 36.6% of respondents reporting a neutral view of the market. This is the lowest absolute change in a month and is 5.0 percentage points higher than the average level.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The NAAIM Exposure Index moved higher this week alongside bullish sentiment. The index ranges from +200 (levered long) to -200 (levered short) and this week the index moved from 52.2 to 67.0, essentially erasing last week's significant drop. That indicates reporting investment managers' exposure to US equities is roughly 67%.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-


    • (N/A.)

    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:


    Monday 12.27.21 Before Market Open:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    Monday 12.27.21 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)


    Tuesday 12.28.21 Before Market Open:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    Tuesday 12.28.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 12.29.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 12.29.21 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)


    Thursday 12.30.21 Before Market Open:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    Thursday 12.30.21 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)


    Friday 12.31.21 Before Market Open:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())

    (NONE.)


    Friday 12.31.21 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)


    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?


    I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great final trading week of 2021 ahead r/stocks. :)

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
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    What are fundamemtals of a company I should look before buying their stock?

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 06:50 AM PST

    What are fundamemtals of a company I should look before buying their stock?I also heard PE ratio and other metrics.What should I be looking at a company before buying it (in your opinion and experience)?

    submitted by /u/adriangruda
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    I Built a Free Browser Extension to Show Charts & Options Flow on Just a Hover Over on Twitter

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 08:59 PM PST

    There was another post here recently where someone built a cool extension for twitter that showed stock prices and company names when you hovered over any stock symbol.

    I really liked the idea and wanted to take it up a notch. Therefore, ended up creating something slightly more advanced called Trady Lens.

    It's a browser extension that pops up a nice chart and options flow summary data when you hover over any symbol on twitter. Right now, it only works in firefox and for twitter. If there's interest, I would love to develop it for Chrome and for other social media platforms as well.

    Link: https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/trady-lens/

    Quick Demo: https://streamable.com/xo5x56

    Since it free and does not require anything, I believe it is okay to share it here. Please give it a go, would love to get feedback.

    Have a great week ahead.

    submitted by /u/hydershykh
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    Reasons for adding TLRY to all of my portfolios

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 09:08 AM PST

    1. 2021 net revenue increased 25% to $142.2 million from 2020

    2. EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, and depreciation) up 285% from 2020, to $12.3 million during the fourth quarter from $3.2 million

    3. Although gross profit decreased 19% from 2020, free cash flow increased 112% and adjusted gross profit increased 53%

    4. Tilray ended the year with a great balance sheet with assets amounting to $488.5 million in 2021 versus $189.7 million in 2020

    5. Overall sentiment towards marijuana usage is increasingly positive, not only for medicinal purposes but also recreational use

    6. Stock price is at $7.84 per share at time of this post, down 35% from the median price of $12 by analysts

    7. Happily adding $10 Calls expiring in January 2023 in my Roth IRA, plus shares in my individual and Roth accounts

    submitted by /u/irresistiblemelon
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    Be Greedy When Others are Fearful, and be Fearful when Others are Greedy

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 10:19 PM PST

    This is one of the most common quotes that people re-iterate throughout the stock market today. So why is it that virtually no one in this sub follows these tenants in the stocks they like. With companies that are high fliers, pushing insane valuations, and everyone is greedy, ex. NVDA, AMD, TSLA, etc. these are some of the most common names for what investors want to buy. Doing the opposite of this quote that we can all agree throughout history has proven to be true.

    On the other end, with stocks like BABA, INTC, etc. everyone in this sub fucking hates them and wouldn't touch them with a 20 foot stick, even when everyone is being fearful.

    Really makes you wonder how so many people can preach this saying and constantly remind others of it but not follow it themselves.

    submitted by /u/Miladyboi
    [link] [comments]

    What is going to happen when we transition from LIBOR to SOFR?

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 03:49 PM PST

    What the title says. I've read in other subs it's going to possibly blow up the market. After a quick google search it sounds like it's going to be an easy transition. I'm just curious what everyone in this sub has to say and if someone smarter than me could explain it a little better.

    submitted by /u/jessiejames417
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    Should I sell my losers and re-buy in the new year to mitigate capital gains?

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 05:51 PM PST

    https://i.imgur.com/kkAsoQ5.jpg I have about 3.5k more in unrealized losses and live in California. Do you think I should realize my losses to mitigate capital gains?

    Or just let them ride? First year filing taxes in 2022 I'll be married. I'm the only one who invests in the market. Don't want to end up owing too much.

    submitted by /u/banananuttttt
    [link] [comments]

    Investing a bigger amount of money - your experience with financial advisors / wealth manager

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 04:32 PM PST

    I read a lot of posts where you guys recommend OP to seek a financial advisor or wealth manager. Especially when it comes to a bigger amount of money.

    What is your experience with such services? What kind of costs are to be expected? I found some robot wealth management services starting with 0.5% and human wealth management over 1%. But this is just the management. What other trading costs I should keep in mind?

    And also why not just put the money in a bigger ETF?

    submitted by /u/tzt1324
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    Are stocks a good investment for the small investor?

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 04:57 PM PST

    G'Day everyone!

    I've been investing for a while in cry and I wanted to diversify my investments in other areas such a stocks.

    After researching a bit, I've seen how stocks are less volatile and in fact more slow in terms of growth.

    So my question is: is it a good idea to invest on stocks when you don't have hundreds of thousands to put it? Any recommendations?

    What I mean with all this is that if I want to put my money to work for me, and make some passive incomes. Stocks, for the middle class average man, doesn't seem as profitable as cry.

    Thank you and have a nice day

    submitted by /u/tocachas
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    Is it fair to look at what stocks were trading pre split?

    Posted: 26 Dec 2021 10:33 AM PST

    Tesla is a good example. Does it make sense to take its price now and multiply by 5 to get a prospective if where it's trading vs before the split? It seems much more safer to be by buying it when it was at 600 bucks. But if you saw it at a price of 5000, it wouldn't sell itself so well? Is this a completely wrong view to look at Tesla like this?

    submitted by /u/infinitesunny
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    So I’m 20 and just inherited 20‘000 bucks and want to invest in some Growth stocks. What are your top 5 Growth stocks/ETFs?

    Posted: 27 Dec 2021 02:18 AM PST

    Hey guys, I've already invested a bit, mainly 4k into VT, 500 each into AAPL, NVDA, AMD and PLTR and another 200 into AMD.

    Now I made a post yesterday saying I want to get into Dividends but most of y'all were saying I should focus on Growth instead cause my retirement is so far away.

    What are your Top 5 Growth stock and if you had 20k at 20 years old to invest, what stocks would you pick and how would you split the money?

    submitted by /u/skrt_xocarti
    [link] [comments]

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