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    Tuesday, December 7, 2021

    Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - December 07, 2021 Investing

    Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - December 07, 2021 Investing


    Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - December 07, 2021

    Posted: 07 Dec 2021 02:02 AM PST

    Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

    This thread is for:

    • General questions
    • Your personal commentary on markets
    • Opinion gathering on a given stock
    • Non advice beginner questions

    Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google.

    If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions.

    Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
    [link] [comments]

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. December 07, 2021

    Posted: 07 Dec 2021 02:01 AM PST

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you? What country do you live in?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
    • Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
    • And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
    [link] [comments]

    China Evergrande establish a Risk Mitigation Commitee

    Posted: 06 Dec 2021 07:09 PM PST

    On 7 December, the Evergrande series rebounded, with EVERGRANDE rising nearly 8% and EVERG VEHICLE and EVERG SERVICES both rising about 2% in the Hong Kong stock market.

    Yesterday, EVERGRANDE announced that in view of the operational and financial challenges currently faced by the Company, the Board of Directors of the Company resolved to establish the China Evergrande Group Risk Mitigation Committee. The members of the Risk Mitigation Committee come from a variety of backgrounds, including the Company's current top executives, executives of certain leading companies and professionals. Among others, Xu Jiayin is the Chairman of the Risk Mitigation Committee.

    Without sufficient funds or decent revenue, How can Evergrande avoid its risks?

    submitted by /u/SiaZhang418
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    Bitcoin trial: Defendant wins dispute over $50B in Bitcoin

    Posted: 07 Dec 2021 05:40 AM PST

    Associated Press

    NEW YORK (AP) — Craig Wright, a computer scientist who claims to be the inventor of Bitcoin, prevailed in a civil trial verdict Monday against the family of a deceased business partner that claimed it was owed half of a cryptocurrency fortune worth tens of billions.

    A Florida jury found that Wright did not owe half of 1.1 million Bitcoin to the family of David Kleiman. The jury did award $100 million in intellectual property rights to a joint venture between the two men, a fraction of what Kleiman's lawyers were asking for at trial.

    "This was a tremendous victory for our side," said Andres Rivero of Rivero Mestre LLP, the lead lawyer representing Wright.

    David Kleiman died in April 2013 at the age of 46. Led by his brother Ira Kleiman, his family has claimed David Kleiman and Wright were close friends and co-created Bitcoin through a partnership.

    (article continues)

    submitted by /u/AwesomeMathUse
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    Government wants a refund of Covid relief check - pay it back in full or with interest payments?

    Posted: 06 Dec 2021 10:50 PM PST

    The government asked my parents to pay it back the covid relief check it got for "reasons". It's Israel.

    There are two options to pay back the 14k USD. One is to pay it at once (they have the cash on hand) or stretch it to 17 monthly payments at 2% interest.

    Given that 17 months is almost a year and a half, and annual returns on index funds range between 7 to 10% on average, would it be wise to opt for interest payments and invest the cash on hand in a mutual index fund?

    submitted by /u/BigBootyBear
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    Buy the Dip or Sell the Rip?

    Posted: 06 Dec 2021 08:37 AM PST

    What are your thoughts? Are we still in a Bull Market with upward momentum so last week was an opportunity to buy the dip? Or are we entering the beginning of a Bear Market due to? China Property. New Covid Strain. Russia about to invade Ukraine. China drop in GDP. Higher interest rates coming. Other Exogenous Shock.

    And in that case is today a day to sell the rip? Personally I think we are in the middling stage that is the end of the Bull run that will turn into either a serious pull back or a full on Bear Market.

    submitted by /u/Admirable_Nothing
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    What happens to your shares after a buyout announcement?

    Posted: 06 Dec 2021 08:14 AM PST

    It seems like the shares shoot up to the buyout price and drift around at that level until the sale is completed. But I can't imagine there's a big demand for the shares. Is there somebody that steps in to buy them? Or maybe since the price is almost guaranteed there are people willing to buy them at a small discount to the buyout price?

    Also what happens to the option? Especially if you have ones that aren't in the money.

    submitted by /u/lufecaep
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    Why do we care about patterns in technical analysis?

    Posted: 06 Dec 2021 01:35 AM PST

    Hey, I come from a mathematical background (STEM) and I'm reading up on technical analysis. My question is why do we even look at those patterns?

    The mathematical models behind those patterns (moving average, Bollinger bands, etc.) have no connection to the stock market. Why do we use them, and are they really helpful?

    Let me put it that way, if we define a system of patterns, with the required structure (orthogonal system) we can easily build all possible ways the price of a stock can move. So how does something seemingly arbitrary help us in trading?

    submitted by /u/Schlonksi
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    [Company Analysis] AT&T vs Verizon vs T-Mobile: Are they worth the investment?

    Posted: 06 Dec 2021 06:24 AM PST

    The next step for telecommunications around the world is 5G. In the US, the three largest providers in the field are Verizon, T-Mobile and AT&T. The question here is can they offer us a good return on our investment? The obvious choice for industries like telecommunications are the biggest players in the country. Like I said, in the US those players are Verizon, T-Mobile and AT&T so lets dig in and find out which one has the best bullish case.

    Operations

    Lets start with operations. The amount of wireless subscribers is probably the most important metric to look at because it gives us a good idea of whether the operations of the companies are actually expanding. Plus, it is the main and biggest source of revenue for all three of these companies. Verizon has the most subscribers, currently sitting at 121.3 million, followed by T-Mobile with 104.8 million and AT&T with 97.8 million. Verizon acquired TracFone last year, which boosted their subscriber numbers, but apart from that there was no massive change in subscribers for any of the companies. Verizon has also recently broken the record for most awarded brand by JD Power for Wireless Network Quality with 27 consecutive number one awards. Good product quality is always important so that's a positive for Verizon in my books. Plus, they literally service 99% of the Fortune 500 companies and have partnerships with tech leaders like Amazon, Microsoft and Google. Right now, it seems like the main priority for all three companies is to improve their 5G network and capability. T-Mobile is the leader in 5G with best download speeds and highest coverage of 295 million having access to its 5G services, out of which 140 million people having access to its fastest service . AT&T's fast 5G coverage is only half T-Mobile's and Verizon is lagging behind with only a quarter of the fast 5G coverage of T-Mobile although their total coverage is similar to T-Mobile's. However, AT&T's 5G has a partnership with Microsoft Azure and Verizon's 5G has partnered with AWS. Such partnerships with major cloud providers are definitely a plus.

    Verizon had Verizon Media which comprised of brands like AOL and Yahoo, but Verizon sold its media assets to a private equity company called Apollo Global Management on the 1st of September. The media business was a relatively fast-growing part of Verizon so I'm personally not the biggest fan of that sale. Still, Verizon Media made up only 6.2% of Verizon's total revenue in Q2 so it is a fairly small segment, but it will affect Verizon's revenue and profit going forward. In comparison, AT&T owns Warner Media so you can tell it is a much bigger chunk of its revenue at 21.2% in the third quarter of 2021. They own HBO and HBO Max which have seen an additional 12.5 million subscribers in the past year to a total of 69.4 million subscribers globally. Unfortunately, the gains there were offset by less cinema screenings over the past year although things are obviously picking back up again and we should see better results in the next quarters. Some more bad news, AT&T will be spinning off Warner Media in mid-2022 so that means a big chunk of revenue will be lost next year! I think this will end up badly for AT&T, especially since Warner Media is one of their more profitable segments! Putting that aside, other revenue sources include wireless equipment sales which make up 16.3% of Verizon's revenue, 12.7% of AT&T's revenue and 23.8% of T-Mobile's revenue. Even though it's a big chunk of T-Mobile's revenue, the company actually saw a 5.9% decrease in wireless equipment sales while AT&T saw an 11.4% increase and Verizon saw a massive 30% jump in equipment revenues, which is another plus for Verizon although the question here is whether they can actually keep that up.

    Revenue and Earnings

    Alright, so we now have a good idea of what operations Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile have. What does their revenue and earnings look like though? AT&T has the biggest revenue at $39.9 billion in Q3 of 2021, down 5.7% from last year. Their total revenue for the last 12 months stands at $173.6 billion, which is almost identical to the same period last year, meaning there was no growth. Verizon follows in second place with a $32.9 billion revenue in Q3 of 2021, up 4.3% from last year. Their total revenue for the last 12 months stands at $134.2 billion which is slightly up compared to the same period last year when they had a revenue of $128.4 billion. Finally, T-Mobile brought in a revenue of $19.6 billion in Q3 of 2021 compared to $19.3 billion last year. Last year, T-Mobile saw a massive jump in revenue which was mainly because of their merger with Sprint which closed on 1st April last year, but the growth since then has been much slower. For the last 12 months, T-Mobile's revenue was $79.7 billion up from $60 billion last year, but again that's because of the two companies merging. Overall, Verizon and AT&T have seen a relatively small revenue growth over the last 5 years, less than 2% per year, and they only expect a 1% revenue increase next year. In comparison, T-Mobile's revenue has doubled since 2016, which is massive compared to Verizon and AT&T, but again only a small revenue increase of under 3% is expected next year. What about their earnings though? Verizon have the best net margins at 16.4% which have doubled from an 8% in 2015. Plus, Verizon raised their EPS guidance for 2021 by almost 5%. AT&T's normal margins sit at around 9% although they've had a 0.7% net margin in the past year which are due to write-offs and impairments surrounding their media business. Finally, T-Mobile have the lowest margins with 4.2% right now although their historical average is about 5 or 6%. T-Mobile also have a negative free cash flow unlike the other two, which is a bit concerning. It's not a one-off either as they haven't had a positive free cash flow since 2016! That is most likely due to their faster expansion because telecommunications is extremely capital-intensive, but it is still worrying to see that with T-Mobile. In 2022, AT&T is expected to see a 4.4% drop in earnings while Verizon's earnings are expected to stay essentially flat with only a 0.3% earnings growth, but T-Mobile is looking at a 39.2% earnings growth although that follows after a drop of 32% in 2021. I personally don't think we will see such a big growth from T-Mobile and, to be fair, analysts have been reducing their expectations, too. There are just a lot of uncertainties in the market and the economy and a lot can change over the next year.

    Financial Health

    We can see that these companies are making a lot of cash, but how healthy are their financials? What does their debt look like? Well, surprisingly, AT&T has the lowest debt-to-equity ratio with a 100%, followed by T-Mobile with 106% and finally Verizon with 191.8%! However, Verizon has the lowest effective interest rate with only 1.88% compared to 3.07% for T-Mobile and 3.31% for AT&T. What that means is that even though Verizon has exactly twice the debt of AT&T, their interest payments actually are not that much higher! Also, telecommunications is a very capital-intensive business so this type of debt levels are actually normal for the industry. None of the three companies has substantial cash and none of them can cover their current liabilities with their current assets. However, their quick ratios are just under 1 so the situation is not that bad.

    Dividend

    Before we move to the valuation, we need to look at the dividend. Telecom stocks are not typically fast growers so their dividend is important to investors. AT&T has the highest dividend at 9.4%, but they are expected to cut it by almost half next year following the sale of Warner Media. Verizon follows with a 5.1% dividend while T-Mobile does not pay a dividend at all! Both AT&T and Verizon pay a higher-than-average dividend. Both of them have increased their dividend every year over the last 10 years although Verizon is the company that can actually afford to pay it. Their payout ratio is 47% whereas AT&T's one is massive, 1,578% although that's skewed due to the write-offs I mentioned earlier. Still, AT&T has a historically higher payout ratio than Verizon so that's worth keeping in mind. Lets also take a look at share buybacks since they are another way of returning money to shareholders. Verizon and T-Mobile have not bought back any shares in the last 3 years, but AT&T has actually reduced their number of outstanding shares by 2.5% since 2018.

    Valuation

    Okay, we've covered the dividend so lets value the companies. Are they cheap right now? Looking at their current PE, we can see that Verizon is the cheapest with 9.5, followed by T-Mobile with 39.8 and AT&T with 168.2. Obviously, the current PE can be misleading, but if we take a look at their forward PE, we see that AT&T is the cheapest with only 7.3, followed by Verizon with 9.6 and T-Mobile with 32. In terms of the Price-to-earnings-growth ratio, T-Mobile is the cheapest with a 1.11, followed by Verizon with 2.9 and AT&T with 9.6. Finally, AT&T is the cheapest in terms of book value with a PB ratio of 1.04, T-Mobile follows with 2.07 and Verizon with 2.93.

    Conclusion

    How can we interpret all of this? Well, AT&T seems to be the cheapest out of the three stocks right now, followed by Verizon. T-Mobile is massively overvalued right now, most likely by investors betting on T-Mobile dominating the 5G market. I honestly cannot see the bullish case for T-Mobile though. Even if they completely dominate the 5G market, they still have such low margins, negative free cash flow and a lot of costs related to capital expenditure. I just don't see them justifying this high price any time soon, definitely not in the next 2 or 3 years. Despite being cheap, AT&T is also a no-go in my books. Why? Their main selling point is their dividend. AT&T will be cutting this in half while also selling their high margin Warner Media subsidiary. Essentially, there is no point to hold them for the dividend and they will also lag behind in revenue and profits so there is no value play there either. It just seems like their best days are behind them. They currently trade for $22.2 which is half of their all-time high back in July 1999. 22 years ago! They have not been able to come close to that price and, in my opinion, they will not do that in the next 5 years. Definitely not worth the investment. You can just stick your money in an index fund and you will get much better returns without having to do more than 5 minutes of research. Plus, AT&T's price is likely to drop further once the Warner Media sale is closed and their dividend drops. The only good purchase here is Verizon. They have a solid dividend, decent margins, they can provide stability during volatile markets. However, they are not expected to grow much. No growth typically equals no jump in price. We can value their free cash flow as much as we want, but if investors don't buy the stock, the price will lag behind the S&P. Still, I think there is a case for Verizon if we see continued inflation or an increase in interest rates. As I said, Verizon's dividend is also solid, which is great for income portfolios or for balancing out your risk. However, if you are looking for price appreciation, a simple US index fund like SPY or VGT will probably outperform Verizon. There are some companies that can offer you a better return so check out my stock picks here if you are interested. Let me know what you think about Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile down below.

    P.S. This is one of the occasions where you spend a weekend researching companies only to come to the conclusion that S&P500 probably offers better returns! I hope you find this useful though :)

    submitted by /u/TheNewbieInvestor
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    Chinese Developer and Holding Company Sunshine 100 Defaults on Its Debt

    Posted: 05 Dec 2021 06:35 PM PST

    China appears to be going through some major issues, especially in the financial services/banking and real estate sectors. A major portion of China's GDP is tied up in Real Estate, making the situation similar to what the U.S experienced during the GFC, albeit with less global implications.

    "CHINESE developer Sunshine 100 China Holdings has defaulted on US$178.9 million of debt and interest payments due Sunday (Dec 5), as the direct fallout of the woes of property companies in China continues to impact investors in Singapore.

    Sunshine 100 was due to repay the US$170 million of principal and US$8.9 million of interest on its 10.5 per cent senior notes due 2021, which is listed on the Singapore Exchange (SGX).

    But in a bourse filing on Dec 5, the company said it is unable to meet its debt obligations on the bonds "owing to liquidity issues arising from the adverse impact of a number of factors including the macroeconomic environment and the real estate industry".

    The default will also trigger cross default provisions under certain other debt instruments entered into by the company and its subsidiaries which may become immediately due and payable if the creditors choose to accelerate."

    submitted by /u/BenDoverR8Now
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    Why don't more people leverage themselves with debt?

    Posted: 07 Dec 2021 02:06 AM PST

    If you can get a low interest loan for 1% or 2%, wouldn't it make sense to take a loan to fund daily expenses? Then you use a portion of the salary for loan monthly payments, and invest what's left in an index fund. Wouldn't that leverage your income the best way possible? If that's not possible in practice, then why?

    I have been thinking about this for a while and due to high inflation and the fact the market always goes up (it does go down, but then it bounces back), why don't more people embrace debt to fund their everyday expenses while using their income for monthly payments and investments?

    I know rich people like to get cash from low interest loans against their holdings instead of selling them and paying tax+losing on potential future gains. Why don't normal people do that as well, even if to a lesser degree?

    submitted by /u/BigBootyBear
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    Cathie Wood’s Ark Innovation fund is in a bear market

    Posted: 05 Dec 2021 02:07 PM PST

    It's been a dismal week for Cathie Wood's flagship fund, Ark Innovation, that's left nearly all of her holdings in bear market.

    Wood's main exchange-traded fund, which trades under ticker ARKK, fell 12.6% this week, for its worst week since February. Ark Innovation dropped 5.5% on Friday.

    She also said "her strategies are set to quadruple over the next five years, after their underperformance this year."

    Do you buy into that? Or you taking Anti Ark path?

    submitted by /u/Delicious_Reporter21
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    Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - December 06, 2021

    Posted: 06 Dec 2021 02:02 AM PST

    Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

    This thread is for:

    • General questions
    • Your personal commentary on markets
    • Opinion gathering on a given stock
    • Non advice beginner questions

    Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google.

    If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions.

    Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Chinese SEC says it had constructive communication with the US SEC. Maybe this will calm the selloff of Chinese stocks?

    Posted: 05 Dec 2021 04:54 AM PST

    https://cnevpost.com/2021/12/05/chinese-securities-regulator-says-it-recently-had-constructive-communication-with-us-sec-pcaob/

    Some excerpts

    "Recently, individual media reports that Chinese regulators will prohibit companies with variable interest entity (VIE) structures from listing abroad and promote the delisting of Chinese companies listed in the US are completely misunderstood and misinterpreted," the statement said.

    "We leaned that some domestic companies are actively communicating with domestic and foreign regulatory agencies to promote listing in the United States," according to the statement.

    "We believe that as long as regulators on both sides continue to uphold this principle of mutual respect, rationality, pragmatism and professional mutual trust in conducting dialogue and consultation, we will be able to find a mutually acceptable path of cooperation," according to the statement.

    In fact, China and the US have been cooperating in the field of audit and supervision of China concept stocks, and had also explored effective ways of cooperation through pilot inspections, laying a better foundation for cooperation between the two sides.

    However, some US political forces have politicized capital market regulation in recent years, suppressing Chinese companies listed in the US for no apparent reason and coercing Chinese companies to delist, which is not only contrary to the basic principles of market economy and the concept of the rule of law, but also damages the interests of global investors and the international status of the US capital market, the statement said.

    "This is a 'multi-loss' approach that will benefit no one," the statement said.

    submitted by /u/futureIsYes
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    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. December 06, 2021

    Posted: 06 Dec 2021 02:01 AM PST

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you? What country do you live in?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
    • Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
    • And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
    [link] [comments]

    Question about recent LGVN private placement and stock warrants

    Posted: 05 Dec 2021 08:09 PM PST

    In the private placement press release it says:

    Under the terms of the securities purchase agreement, the Company has agreed to sell approximately 1.17 million shares of its common stock and warrants to purchase 1.17 million shares of common stock. The warrants will be exercisable immediately upon the date of issuance and have an exercise price of $17.50 per share. The warrants will expire five years from the date of issuance. The purchase price for one share of common stock and one corresponding warrant will be $17.50. The gross proceeds to the Company from the private placement are estimated to be approximately $20.5 million before deducting the placement agent's fees and other estimated offering expenses. The offering is expected to close on or about December 3, 2021, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

    So if I'm reading this right, LGVN sold 1.17m shares of common stock and warrants to purchase an additional 1.17m shares with a strike price of $17.50 for a gross proceed of $20.5 million (the wording isn't exactly clear -- the warrants have a strike price of $17.50 for sure but were the common stocks sold for $17.50 each as well? I would assume so).

    1.17 * $17.50 = $20.475 million. That means the premium of the warrants cost 0.025million or $25,000 or basically none relative to the stock value. Is this a common thing when it comes to private placements? Don't warrants usually have much higher premiums? Am I missing something? Thanks for any insight.

    submitted by /u/Vortastic
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    Bitcoin is not a safe haven or digital gold. It's a risk-on asset.

    Posted: 04 Dec 2021 12:13 PM PST

    No matter whether you like like crypto's or not, recent days have made it clear again Bitcoin is not a "safe haven" or "digital gold" which some claim it to be. It's a risk-on asset.

    In the past week when equity markets sold off because of Fed tapering fears and lower then expected nonfarm payrolls, bitcoin also went down almost 20%.

    Again, i'm not judging those that want to speculate on cryptos, just don't call it a safe haven. If anything it's a risk-on asset which follows more the sentiment in stocks.

    If you want a safe haven right now consider having 5-10% gold in portfolio. Most probably hold an ETF like $GLD for that. Gold futures went up more than a percent on friday.

    For those that will point out gold didn't go up in the past 10 years, that's because the Fed kept printing money which has helped bloating the stock market. Fed already announed they will finally taper off this QE and might even want to do it faster. Over longer periods of time like the past 20 and 30 years gold has even outperformed the S&P500.

    Concerning holding bonds as safe haven keep in mind those can be hit hard if Fed speeds up its QE tapering and starts raising interest rates which will happen eventually.

    submitted by /u/ThinkBigger01
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    How do I know what the changes in the component stocks of indexes were?

    Posted: 05 Dec 2021 01:13 PM PST

    I'm trying to build a model to chart the changes in the Shiller PE (or PE10) for different countries' indexes. The math is pretty easy, but I'm not sure how to know what the historical changes in the component stocks of the indexes happened. I can find the data for the S&P500 (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies), but I can't find the data for, say, the EGX30 (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/EGX_30).

    This data must exist because any historical calculations have to take changes in the makeup of the index into account. I'm just not sure where this data even comes from. Any help is much appreciated.

    submitted by /u/Zhuangzifreak
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    Is the party coming to an end?

    Posted: 06 Dec 2021 04:55 PM PST

    Just thinking "aloud" here. What can we expect in the coming years?

    1. Slower growth
      Stock market returns over the last 15 or so years are largely the result of boomers in their peak earning years, rushing to prepare for retirement (and recover from the '00, '08 crashes). This trend will come to an end soon, as the majority of boomers retire over the next few years, and move towards more conservative investments. Maybe dividend stocks will become interesting again. Don't expect tech stocks to keep crashing to the upside.
    2. Higher interest rates
      Inflation will force interest rates up, and the resulting increase in the cost of capital will slow corporate growth. This is a tricky one, because increased interest rates could make it hard to service the national debt, which is now over 100% of GDP - maybe they can't go up much.
    3. Higher taxes
      Because of #2, government will need more revenue to service its debt. Also, high interest will drive down bond prices, so don't buy those. We'll also need more taxes to pay for the boomers' social security and medicare, from a smaller pool working-age people (gen X).
    4. Lower housing prices
      Higher interest = lower housing prices. Also, the migration of high-earning professionals to the suburbs is decreasing demand - and supply of qualified buyers. But even if SFRs drop in price, they will still be unaffordable to the majority of people, so multifamily will likely not be affected much.

    So... with lower growth on the horizon, we should focus on income. Stay away from high-PE stocks, wheel the SPY, and invest the premiums in some dividend ETFs.

    I'm still expecting TSLA to keep crashing to the upside, because they're doing the right things at the right time: the transition to electric transportation and self-driving are as inevitable as the rise of the internet and smartphones, and they are years ahead of the rest of the industry. IMHO, they'll 4x in the next two-three years.

    Curious to hear other opinions/counterarguments.

    submitted by /u/alpe77
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    Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - December 05, 2021

    Posted: 05 Dec 2021 02:02 AM PST

    Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

    This thread is for:

    • General questions
    • Your personal commentary on markets
    • Opinion gathering on a given stock
    • Non advice beginner questions

    Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google.

    If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions.

    Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
    [link] [comments]

    Why is valuation for semiconductors so poor?

    Posted: 04 Dec 2021 06:43 AM PST

    Even after the surge this year, most of them are still trading at valuations far below other tech companies. Historically, it's a cyclical business right. However that is based on decades' worth of trends which have less relevance in today's economy. Semiconductors these days can turn profits rain or shine and the worst they encounter is a slowdown in growth. Not a surprise given the explosion of connected cars and IOT. Meanwhile software companies lose money for years at nosebleed valuations and no one bats an eye. Where is the logic. And why does an Nvidia get such a high premium over a Micron (GPUs yes, but the gulf in valuation is too extreme).

    Edit: Thank you for the detailed responses all. There is a lot I don't agree with still on valuation but the technical color has been very interesting to read.

    submitted by /u/ESComments
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    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. December 05, 2021

    Posted: 05 Dec 2021 02:01 AM PST

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you? What country do you live in?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
    • Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
    • And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    The fallacy of “higher risk = higher reward”.

    Posted: 04 Dec 2021 10:14 AM PST

    Often in investing circles, you see the phrase spouted "higher risk = higher reward" as a way to justify more speculative and risky stocks or other asset purchases. This phrase is usually misinterpreted to mean that if you buy a risky stock, you'll have a higher chance of getting a higher reward in the future. This is not what it refers to. The meaning of the phrase is revealed through an understanding of the difference between compensated and uncompensated risk.

    • Compensated risk is when you take a higher risk that is compensated through a higher expected return. An example is stocks vs bonds. Stocks are systematically more risky than bonds, and over the long run they provide a higher return. Another example is that of small cap stocks. There's been a lot of research done into the systematic higher risks associated with certain stocks that have certain factors. These stocks should provide a greater return over the long run. Search up factor investing to learn more about this.
    • Uncompensated risk is when you take a higher risk that is not compensated through a higher expected return. Individual stocks are examples of an uncompensated risk. You take on the risk of the individual company performing poorly and there's no logical reason why it should lead to expected outperformance. The risks of an individual company are mitigated through the use of diversification. An individual stock on average will give you the market average return. But that individual stock has a higher risk. If you hold 10 stocks, then on average you get the same return but you have mitigated your risk. This is the theory behind index investing.

    So just understand that higher risk ≠ higher return unless that higher risk id a compensated risk. We can't predict the future, but economic theory can help make better decisions.

    submitted by /u/Michael12390
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    G-Fund equivalent for non-govt employees.

    Posted: 04 Dec 2021 07:34 AM PST

    Question: What is the closest equivalent to the G-Fund available to non-Govt Employees?

    Background: If you don't know the G-fund is one of the funds in govt sponsored saving plans. There are other funds that track international, large cap, etc but they can all go down. The G-fund never goes down and the rate of return is more than cash but not spectacular.

    I know that outside of the G-fund there is no guarantee to never decrease but what is the closest equivalent?

    I found FGOVX which is Fidelity Govt Income funds. Any others or better ones?

    submitted by /u/Worried_Thylacine
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