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    Monday, November 22, 2021

    Home Unlabelled Stock Market - Stocks below their all time highs…. Any of these looking juicy yet?

    Stock Market - Stocks below their all time highs…. Any of these looking juicy yet?

    November 22, 2021

    Stock Market - Stocks below their all time highs…. Any of these looking juicy yet?

    Stocks below their all time highs…. Any of these looking juicy yet?

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 04:57 PM PST

    The Future of PAYPAL? As this stock continues to decline, and hit 52-week lows today, at what point would it be wise to cut your losses and seek an exit opportunity on this stock. For those holding and confident it'll bounce back, what is your reasoning behind it?

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 07:54 AM PST

    Market open - Monday, November 22nd, 2021

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 07:08 AM PST

    What in the fannie is this?

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 06:30 AM PST

    Here is a Market Recap for today Monday, Nov 22, 2021. Please enjoy!

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 02:32 PM PST

    PsychoMarket Recap - Monday, November 22, 2021

    After trading mostly even throughout the day, the Nasdaq (QQQ) and S&P 500 (SPY) sold off sharply in the last hour. Early in the morning, President Biden announced this morning that Jerome Powell was renominated to lead the Federal Reserve for another four years. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, who was Powell's main competitor, was nominated as the Vice-Chair. Looking ahead, market participants are waiting for more inflation data set to be released later this week.

    On Monday, President Biden announced he was nominating Jerome Powell for a second, four-year term as the Chair of the Federal Reserve and Fed Governor Lael Brainard as the Vice-Chair, ending weeks of speculation who would be tapped to run the nation's Central Bank. Biden was expected to select either Powell or current Fed Governor Lael Brainard as Fed chair. Following the nomination, Powell will go before the Senate Banking Committee for approval, and if confirmed, will serve another four-year term.

    Eric Browne, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Pimco, said "I think this was largely expected by markets. Certainly there were some conversations in markets over the last couple of weeks about Brainard potentially being elevated to the Fed chair position. But by and large the expectation was for consistency. You may see a little bit of a rally on the back of this with the expectation that policy is going to remain in place and intact, and everything that's been articulated already by the Fed is likely to continue into 2022 and beyond."

    Looking ahead, more inflation data is set to be released later this week, which will provide further insight into the pace of inflation and any potential reactions by the Federal Reserve. The Core Personal Consumptions Expenditure (PCE) , which is Fed's preferred measure for inflation, is set to be released Wednesday and expected to show a 4.1% year-over-year increase. This would be the biggest annual jump in roughly three decades.

    Highlights

    • Constellation Brands (STZ), the maker of Corona beer, is reportedly exploring for a deal to merge with Monster Beverage, according to a report by Bloomberg
    • Private Equity Firm KKR made a $12 billion bid to bring Telecom Italia private, sending shares of the italian telecommunication company higher.
    • Sales of previously owned homes in the US unexpectedly jumped to their highest level in nine months in October, signaling that housing demand is picking up against a backdrop of low mortgage rates and strengthening labor markets. Existing home sales rose by 0.8% month-over-month in October, reaching an annualized rate of 6.34 million, according to data from the National Association of Realtors
    • General Motors (GM) bought a 25% stake in electric boat startup Pure Watercraft for $150 million.
    • Netflix (NFLX) said it is acquiring special effects company Scanline VFX, which is behind the effects of "Stranger Things" and "Game of Thrones".
    • Tesla Inc is planning to spend more than $1 billion on its new vehicle factory in Austin, Texas, and plans to complete construction by the end of this year, public filings with a Texas state agency showed.
    • NVIDIA (NVDA) today detailed an AI system called GauGAN2, the successor to its GauGAN model, that lets users create lifelike landscape images that don't exist using text. The program was developed by feeding 10 million high quality images into NVIDIA's Selene supercomputer. This makes it faster and easier to turn an artist's vision into a high-quality AI-generated image. The practical benefi is that one can use a few words to get a basic image together without any drawing at all and then tweak details to refine the final output.
    • In other news, NVIDIA is fast tracking development of its "Zero-Trust" cybersecurity platform built using their data processing units and Morpheus AI, citing vulnerabilities in it's clients' datacenters. Very basically, traditional cybersecurity relies on a perimeter or firewall that prevents viruses and hacks from getting into your computer. Zero-trust is an architecture that also constantly monitors all the data in the system and is able to enforce strict control on what each user can do on the network. Manuvir Das, Head of Enterprise Computing at NVIDIA said, "You cannot just rely on the firewall on the outside, you have to assume that any application or any user inside your data center is a bad actor," and "It is not our intention to be a direct provider of cybersecurity solutions. We have built the platform for cybersecurity companies to integrate into their solutions."
    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
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    S&P EOD Visual Summary: Nov 22

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 01:13 PM PST

    Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger on P/E ratio

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 07:02 PM PST

    This paper has been going around investing subreddits and it is complete BS - here's why

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 07:11 PM PST

    You may have seen this paper (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2741701) floating around various investment subreddits over the past week. It usually comes with the title How to 3x the S&P CAGR with less risk | Leverage for the Long Run with people praising it as an amazing new strategy that requires little effort, provides a high degree of safety, and allows you to experience only the good side of leveraged ETFs. Here's why it's complete bullshit.

    I've seen the 200 SMA argument posted hundreds of times before in r/LETFs. I'm glad this one at least comes with a paper, but the paper is still falling for the same mistakes other believers fall for. The author is correct that volatility increases below any significant moving average (20/50/100/200), however, avoiding volatility should not be your main concern when holding unhedged leveraged ETFs. Your main concern should be flash crashes like in 1987 where the market fell 22% in one day. The author says this:

    Chart 6 shows that historically, the worst 1% of trading days have occurred far more often than not below the Moving Average. Included in this list are the two worst days in market history: October 19th in 1987 and October 28th in 1929

    Wow look at that, moving averages helped avoid the worst two days... but why? The answer is partially due to the fact that both the best and worst days will be in periods of high volatility, but it's also heavily influenced by pure chance. A day like Black Monday could happen at anytime and if there wasn't a choppy market leading up to it you will miss it with moving averages. An unleveraged 22% drop would be a 66% drop for the portfolio suggested in the paper. The market would then likely dip below the 200 SMA and the person would sell! Missing the entire ride back up, even if there was more to fall you're not going to be left in a good place.

    There is no macroeconomic reason that moving averages have any form of predictive power. The closest thing would be the concept of a self fulfilling prophecy which would require a massive audience of believers to have an impact (there are not nearly enough). People always use 200 SMA, but if you try to test other SMAs nearby you sometimes get significantly worse results. The 200 SMA just happens to get you out before the Dot Com crash as well as the GFC. When your entire reasoning is based on well it did good in the past you're overfitting by definition.

    Let's look at another strategy that has an economic backing - HFEA. Holding stocks and bonds together isn't something that just happens to work when you test it. When stocks experience uncertainty large investors move their money into the safety of bonds which forces them in the opposite direction to the stock. Stocks and bonds are slightly, but not perfectly inversely correlated and both of them have positive expected returns. This is why they are the ideal hedge.

    I also want to point out that this is not an academic paper that came from a university. It was published by https://www.leadlagreport.com/ which says on its homepage "Consistently win in the stock market and minimize risk regardless of market conditions" followed by a subscribe button. This is called bullshit and I encourage anyone who cares about honesty to call it out when shit like this is posted.

    submitted by /u/Market_Madness
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    Investors are 51% of Southern California’s homebuying surge

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 08:21 PM PST

    Get ready for 2023.

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 04:20 PM PST

    AMD calls… should I replace with Apple Leaps

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 05:27 PM PST

    Fairly new to the stock market, have some tax related questions

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 01:34 PM PST

    Hi all, I'm fairly new to the stock market (started investing in early 2021) and have been reading and learning as much as I could even since.

    I'm putting myself through college so I don't have a whole lot of money, but on I'm up 250% in my cash account (not too shabby for a beginner).

    I use Webull for stock trading, Coinbase for crypto, and Fidelity for my 401k and Roth IRA.

    My question is I don't understand how taxes work so I've been too afraid to sell anything. I understand short term vs long term capital gains (holding over a year results in less taxes) but I don't understand the tax filing portion of it all. When I file taxes, do I have to note every single individual stock I sell? Will Webull and Coinbase give me a tax form at the end of the year and I just enter that? Do I have to track and document my trades on my own? It doesn't help that I'm only 22 years old and not very familiar with non stock related taxes in general.

    Any help is appreciated! Part of the reason Im up so much is because I'm afraid to sell and the stocks keep rising lol. Eventually I will want to sell and want to be prepared. Thanks!

    submitted by /u/hdiayw55
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    Morning Update for Monday, 11/22/21

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 05:43 AM PST

    Good morning everyone, I hope you had a nice weekend.

    This list is geared towards day trading. With the momentum watchlist especially, I am typically in and out very quickly, only occasionally longer than a couple minutes, usually faster scalps. Always have a plan when you enter a trade (for profit taking and for taking a loss), and use proper risk management for your account. Feel free to message me if you have any questions.

    Main Watchlist:

    Gapping UP:

    • NVAX
    • RBLX
    • NVDA
    • DKS
    • SQM
    • NIO
    • PLUG
    • GME

    Gapping DOWN:

    • CRNC
    • RIVN
    • ABNB
    • AUPH

    Momentum Watchlist:

    • ASTR (+27%)
    • ISPC (+76%)
    • AFMD (+12%)
    • INVZ (+7%)
    • PRVB (+12%)
    • PRFX (+17%)

    Market Outlook:

    Stocks are looking to open a bit higher to start the week after a somewhat choppy session on Friday. Last week we saw some COVID fears return to the market, and that could continue into this week. Austria is officially in its fourth national lockdown since the start of the pandemic, and Germany is considering a lockdown as well. The US has lower vaccination rates than some of the European countries, so take that as you will. President Biden is expected to make his Fed chair nomination sometime this week, and it's likely between Jerome Powell or Lael Brainard. Any shift in economic policy could bring a reaction from the market, so it's worth monitoring the situation.

    SPY is trading just under 470. We could see some choppiness this morning, but if it holds up we could see a push to fresh ATH. If we see weakness, I'll be watching the SMA(9) as potential support, around ~467.28. DIA is trading a bit over 356. I'll be watching 356 as potential support, but we could see a retrace towards 352 if we break down. QQQ is trading a bit under 406 and is set to open at fresh ATH. Relevant support around the 400 level. Gold is down a bit, while silver is trading slightly higher. Crude oil is continuing the recent weakness, and could still retrace a bit more. Bitcoin is currently trading around 57,900. I'll be watching closely over the next few days, as we are approaching support around the 54,000-55,000 level. Crypto-related stocks are down in premarket trading. Airlines and cruise stocks are trading a bit higher in premarket, and could see a nice bounce off support today. If we don't see much of a bounce, they could see more weakness.

    Remember to use proper risk management, by making sure you size appropriately for your account and have a plan for every trade you enter (both for taking profits and cutting losses). Happy trading everyone :)

    submitted by /u/vanturetrading
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    Reasons why DOLE stock is unfairly punished and should trade at 2x current price.

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 11:53 AM PST

    I will state some reasons why I think DOLE should trade at a minimum of $20/ share right now. It currently trades at $13.8.

    The new company formed after the combination of Total Produce and DOLE will be the largest fresh produce company by revenue.

    1. DOLE PLC ($9.0 BN)
    2. GREENYARD ($5.2 BN)
    3. FRESH DEL MONTE ($4.2 BN)

    These companies are completely recession proof and can only suffer with short term raw material price increases, as they can't rise prices at the same rate.

    In Dole's case, the vertically integrated business model allows them to prevent some of these issues.

    DOLE owns 16 vessels and more than 160 facilities around the world.

    This is an industry with many barriers of entry, which makes it very difficult for new competitors to increase their respective market share.

    Companies such as these historically trade at 15x earnings. However, DOLE trades at just 9-10x earnings given the current EPS estimate of $1.39 for 2021.

    I believe a company of DOLE's quality should be trading between 14 and 18 times earnings.

    Here are a few estimates of what I believe should be Dole's price per share today:

    PESSIMISTIC: EPS=$1.25

    $1.25*15= $18.75

    EXPECTED: EPS=$1.39

    $1.39*15= $20.85

    OPTIMISTIC: EPS=$1.55

    $1.55*15= $23.25

    Official earnings will be released December 3rd. Once official financials are released DOLE will start to become attractive to additional retail & institutional investors. Index inclusion can also be a factor.

    submitted by /u/JCarralon
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    A struggling newbie need some help

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 06:16 PM PST

    Hello all,

    I'm a 24 year old newbie just started to invest for about 3 months. I do not have a good income rn (~25k a year but starting in next spring I will have a raise and bump it to 50-70k.) but i just want to dip my toes in the water and start learning about investing. Was doing okay (initial deposit was 3.5k) and was up about 5% until I find out WSB. Made some retard plays (listened to those "DD" about CLOV, IRNT, CRSR) and lost about 15% of my portfolio. After that I started to do a lot more DD and here are my current position:

    TD account

    3 shares of AAPL @ 150

    3 shares of AMC @ 40

    1 share of AMD @ 105

    1 share of DIS @ 160

    15 shares of SOFI @ 19 and 2 option plays April 2022 strike 25 and 30 (bought that 6 weeks ago first and only option play)

    1 share of tsm @ 110

    1 share of unity @ 120

    1 share of V @ 210

    1 share of VOO @ 410

    WEBULL account

    1.5 share of AFRM @ 130

    0.12 share of GOOG @ 2680

    1 share of MSFT @ 283

    0.5 share of TSLA (Bought @ 700 and sold half @ 1150 ~10 days ago, totally lucky play)

    0.1 share of AMZN @ 3250

    1.3 share of FB @ 330

    2.5 share of PYPL @ 235 (RIP)

    1 share of NVDA @ 200

    As you can see I have tons of different stocks all over the places, I'm up about 8% overall even after those retard plays (been adding more deposits overtime so total principle now is 5.5k) until recently SOFI start tanking and today a lot of tech stocks tank because of the treasury yields FUD.

    I'm glad that I started to invest in a relatively young age, and I've been reading a lot of articles and books to understand the market, but the more i know the more I don't know. And my biggest problem is I keep looking at my phone every 5 mins and it has been heavily influence my work life and life in general negatively.

    Now here's my question;

    Should i just put like 75% of my portfolio and a few ETFs so I can actually enjoy life and not to worry about stock every 5 sec? I would be lying to say I don't want to make big money quick but I've learn my lesson knowing I'm not smart or experienced enough to swing trade (or have time to do so.) I've been looking at putting 50% of my port in QQQ and VOO, and 20% to SMH and then 20% with specific stocks that i like and 10% cash. Any recommendation of what kinds of ETFs should I get base on the stocks that I own rn? I'm still young so I'm fine with higher risk ETFs plus I only have like 6k in my account so it's not that big of a deal. But keep tracking on the market has drained my life and i need to get out of it this swamp.

    Any help would be appreciated!

    P.S. I will keep putting 2-300 bucks a month in and 500 after I get a raise

    submitted by /u/daddyforce69
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    Vinco Ventures (BBIG) releases Q3 Earnings; Reports $171m stockholder's deficit

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 05:21 PM PST

    Looking Signal calling Group

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 03:07 PM PST

    Hello everyone, I'm currently a nurse and I work five days a week, and because of that I can't be glued to the screen like I once used to. Does anyone know any well known swing trading discord groups that I could possibly join? The monthly subscription cost really doesn't matter to me, as long as their winning percentage is on the winning side more so losing. I'm looking for them to signal their entry price and their exit price. That way it could be as easy as looking at my watch for a notification while at work. And I'm looking for strictly stock swinging and NOT option trading. Thank you all in advance ! :)

    submitted by /u/DreamK3ng
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    Beginner Asking For Investment Advice

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 02:28 PM PST

    Hey everyone!

    I received a $10,000 check on my 18th birthday this September, and I'm not quite sure what to do with it. I would like to see the money grow into something more, but I don't want to do anything too risky to result in a significant loss. Today, I talked to a financial planner who told me my best bet would be investing in mutual funds but didn't detail other options. I was a bit disappointed because he dumbed down the whole process and gave the overall impression that he would do all the work for me. He was expecting me to hand over the check today, but I decided I needed to do more research before letting a stranger play with my money.

    I've always been interested in the Stockmarket, and wouldn't mind using a portion of my money for risky investments. However, I just don't have enough knowledge to know exactly what I want to do with all of it. But when I try researching the subject, everything's either basic enough that I already know the general concept or so advanced that I can't understand what's going on.

    I'd like to hear your thoughts and opinions, maybe even recommendations for books or podcasts I should check out.

    I hope you all have an amazing day:D

    submitted by /u/mohmoh01
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    ZOOM Communications releases Q3 earnings; Revenue up 35% YOY

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 01:26 PM PST

    Inside Bars: A Primer Part 2

    Posted: 22 Nov 2021 12:20 PM PST
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