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    Stocks - What is happening with the S&P500?

    September 18, 2021

    Stocks - What is happening with the S&P500?

    What is happening with the S&P500?

    Posted: 18 Sep 2021 09:34 AM PDT

    So seen that the S&P500 is now down over the past month, and has been going down for straight for the past week. Considering what is going on in China, as well as supply chain issues, is this drop normal and nothing to worry about?

    Considering the level of expertise many on this subreddit will have, I will apologise in advance for the very simple question I asking here. I've been in the stock market for about 10 months, and I've not seen this before (maybe I've just been very observant this past month or two).

    submitted by /u/maximalsimplicity
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    Historically it's way better to invest at market close than at market open, since most gains occur overnight

    Posted: 18 Sep 2021 11:06 AM PDT

    Found this 2018 article, interesting/fun fact: The Stock Market Works by Day, but It Loves the Night

    • If you had bought SPY at the last second of trading on each business day since 1993, and sold at the market open the next day — capturing all of the net after-hour gains — your cumulative price gain would be 571%
    • On the other hand, if you had done the reverse, buying SPY at the first second of regular trading every morning at 9:30 a.m. and selling at the 4 p.m. close, you would be down 4.4%

    Chart: https://i.imgur.com/YPTjg3v.jpg

    submitted by /u/KingTimKap
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    Instagram ‘traders’ who sell ‘courses’ are the scum of the Earth.

    Posted: 17 Sep 2021 05:27 PM PDT

    Seriously. These people don't even make money from trading options, they make money by selling courses and the occasional photoshop screenshot. I'm taking about people like Aristotle Investments. Complete scams and snake oil salesmen. They sell a 'dream' by posting pictures of luxury items, exotic cars and traveling that they achieved by trading options when really they achieved that by suckering hundreds if not thousands of people or more.

    If these guys could consistently net money from day trading options, they would have their own hedge fund or managing 9-10 figure portfolios instead of selling discord group chats or courses for $9.99. The classic idea of not making money by digging for gold but by selling the shovel to the gold digger. It's disgusting - it's one thing wanting to educate people on responsible finance and investing - it's another thing teaching people who have ZERO knowledge on financial markets about bullshit like technical analysis and day trading trading options.

    I'm a firm believer that if you aren't the type that knows how to conduct your own research outside of your confirmation bias and self educate at the minimum, you are going to lose money trading options. All of it. These guys are just setting people up to lose money. I'm blown away these people don't get knocked out of business with lawsuits. Is it really as simple as just saying "not financial advice"?

    So, what are your takes on these new Instagram/YouTube 'investors'? There's very few guys I think are actually good - such as MeetKevin and he doesn't even really do anything other than voice his opinion on the markets and news for the day.

    submitted by /u/SunkenPretzel
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    BABA - what happens if it’s delisted?

    Posted: 18 Sep 2021 07:48 AM PDT

    I'm an Alibaba bull. China can be incredibly surprising, and who knows what they'll do next to this company…. But the core business has almost a billion users and it serves a need. I think the real risk for those of us that own shares traded on the nyse is it being delisted. As a share holder what would that mean for me? Would I just get paid out the share value at the time of delisting?

    submitted by /u/edougler
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    Teslas Q3 Massive Earnings

    Posted: 18 Sep 2021 06:11 AM PDT

    I know we have mostly Teslas Bulls in this forum that will appreciate this ;)

    Tesla is entering into a phase of exponential growth and it's going straight to their earnings.

    Q3 is going to be massive.

    -Record deliveries with operating expenses not increasing at the same rate

    -Higher priced models sold with price increases

    -Larger share of extremely high margin Refreshed Model S vs prior quarters this year

    -The real winner, a greater portion of the total deliveries being from Shanghai with a lot more Model Ys and cost of production way lower in China.

    Right now wall street has earnings at a lower estimate than last quarter which is crazy. There is going to be another large jump.

    -The near term future catalysts

    Giga Berlin and Giga Austin are coming online in a few weeks and production capacity is going to increase rapidly along with earnings even more than they already are.

    I'm not even going to go into their 4680 cells which they will have in 2022, autonomy, energy, everything else they are working on..

    Just where they are right now they will have a massive Q3 and those two new factories coming online in future quarters will be huge for them. I don't think people even understand.

    submitted by /u/PricedIn18
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    Looking for the best portfolio spreadsheets/trackers out there

    Posted: 18 Sep 2021 08:16 AM PDT

    Hi everyone, I've look around for a free spreadsheet to keep track of all my stocks, etfs and dividends, but with not much success. I really want to be able to have a visualization of what's happening with my portfolios and make sure that I can DCA and diversify in an optimal way.

    •Is there something (free or paid) out there that will support multiple currencies and give a total in USD(or any currency)

    •shows pie charts of the sectors, categories, market caps, diversification in general of investment

    •uses a live source of information like let's say Google Finance

    •a progression and maybe also an AI projection of the capital growth and the dividends

    •the more useful information, the better

    •If it's an app that supports CVS file it's good too but not a requirement idm spending time filling this ba hand

    I don't mind to pay or spend time for that kind of tool cause it will help me, and I think other people too, a lot. I'm french so there might be some english typo.

    I posted this on multiple subreddits and I'll update them all if I find anything better so that others can try it too.

    Edit 1: This one is pretty good, https://www.portfolio-performance.info/en/

    submitted by /u/FrontBrandon
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    Can someone please explain these numbers for the stock IVC to me

    Posted: 18 Sep 2021 12:27 PM PDT

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IVC/key-statistics?p=IVC

    There are 35 million shares issued by the company.

    50 million shares owned by institutions.

    There are 10M shares currently shorted.

    How is there a reportable free float if institutions own 123% of the float.

    How do institutions own an extra 15M shares? Do they buy back the stocks they lend to short? If so, why doesn't the price stay leveled instead of falling?

    submitted by /u/hhgfnffhb
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    Just rolled over my 401K to IRA. Critique my plan.

    Posted: 18 Sep 2021 08:20 AM PDT

    33 years old. I just rolled over my 401K to traditional and Roth IRAs and am starting with a clean slate. I plan to use the Roth, which is about two-thirds of my balance, for growthier type investments. Regardless, I want to allocate to a few ETFs (maybe a couple of stocks) and sort of set it and forget it. I'd rebalance/trade maybe a couple of times a quarter. I have high risk tolerance and 0 interest in fixed income for the foreseeable future.

    I'm thinking traditional gets split evenly between VOO and QQQM.

    For Roth, one-third to QQQJ, one-third to IWN, and the last third for more speculative thematic type ETFs. QQQJ is a next gen tech ETF recently launched at the same time as QQQM - it's essentially a less dumb version of ARKK. IWN is small cap value. A few of the thematic funds off the top of my head that I am considering: LIT, MSOS, ICLN, EDOC

    Thoughts? Any alternatives anyone likes to the tickers I mentioned above?

    submitted by /u/Harambe_Like_Baby
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    Questions around Wash Sale

    Posted: 18 Sep 2021 08:06 AM PDT

    Hi all,
    I want to make sure, I understand the wash sale rules and their tax implications. Here are the questions:

    Let's say I bought 100 shares of a company at $30 today and it went down to $20 next week. I bought another 100 shares averaging my cost basis to$25. One week later, let's say the share price is at $25 dollars and I sold all of my 200 shares.

    If I buy some shares of the same stock again within the 30 days of my sale, do I owe taxes for the first 200 share trades even though I didn't make any profit?

    1 - What if I don't sell my new shares before the end of the year? (guessing this means, I totally owe taxes from the first purchase)

    2- What if I sell my new shares before the end of the year? If I made some profit, would I pay less taxes due to my first purchase having a higher cost basis?

    3- Does the number of stock matter? For example, lets say I bought only 1 share, after selling my 200 shares? Do I still owe tax due to wash sale?

    4- They say wash sales apply to similar tickers. For example, let's say my first 200 shares were DISCA and follow-up shares were DISCK (the same company tickers with different voting rights). Do the exact same rules apply?

    submitted by /u/st350
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    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 20th, 2021

    Posted: 17 Sep 2021 05:49 PM PDT

    Good Friday evening to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 20th, 2021.

    As stocks enter volatile period, the Fed will attempt to not rock the boat further in the week ahead - (Source)

    The Federal Reserve's much-anticipated meeting next week may not be quite as exciting for markets as some investors had been expecting in the usual choppy month of September.

    The meeting is the highlight of the coming week, traditionally a negative time for stocks. Stocks were slightly lower in the past week, with the exception of the small-cap Russell 2000, which ended the week up 0.4%.

    Central bank officials begin meeting Tuesday, and end their two-day session with an announcement Wednesday afternoon. That will be followed by a press briefing with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

    The economic calendar is light, and there is mostly housing data. Starts and permits data are slated for Tuesday, existing home sales numbers are set for Wednesday, with new home sales figures coming out Friday. A handful of companies are reporting earnings, including Costco Wholesale, FedEx and Nike.

    The Fed's meeting may not be as eventful as investors once expected. The central bank's move away from its bond-buying program has been expected by some strategists to cause turbulence for stocks. But the Fed is likely to only discuss tapering at the upcoming meeting and, at most, signal it could slow the bond purchases later in the year.

    "They've been very clear in my view on the guidance on tapering. I think they get an 'A plus' on communicating their intentions around the balance sheet," Bank of America head of U.S. economics Michelle Meyer said. "They said they want to take baby steps and they have." She expects an announcement in November and the actual cut in bond purchases to start before year-end.

    The unwinding of the $120 billion a month bond buying program is important since it would be the first major move away from the extraordinary policies the Fed used to fight the pandemic. It also takes the Fed a step closer to interest rate hikes.

    Debt ceiling risk

    "Everybody's been calling for a correction, and it's always hard to see what the catalyst could be. The catalysts for a correction right now are as clear as they've been all year long," Morgan Stanley Investment Management head of global macro strategy Jim Caron said.

    For now, Caron sees the Fed's communications in the week ahead as less of a risk for markets than other simmering issues, like the debt ceiling, the potential for more taxes and uncertainty surrounding the White House's infrastructure bill.

    Congress has until sometime in October to extend the debt ceiling before the government runs out of funds and defaults. Political rhetoric around raising the debt limit, which would allow Treasury to issue more debt, has been building. The White House warned Friday the economy could enter a recession if Congress fails to act.

    "I think the Fed wants to stay out of the fight at this point. There's just too much ambiguity," Caron said. "They're not going to announce tapering. Their statement is going to be carefully worded. The bar is really high for them to say anything hawkish right now. Between now and the next meeting, we should have a pretty good idea about the debt ceiling and where the infrastructure stands."

    What the Fed could do

    The odds for a September tapering announcement from the Fed fell sharply after August's softer than expected employment report showed just 235,000 jobs were created, about 500,000 less than expected.

    Economists now mostly expect a November announcement, but the September meeting could be important for what else the Fed says.

    The quarterly forecasts of Fed officials are released along with the 2 p.m. statement Wednesday. They include new economic projections and an updated interest rate forecast.

    https://i.imgur.com/vV59aJ6.png

    "I don't think they want to say anything that's slightly hawkish, but the dot plot could come out that way," Caron said. The so-called dot plot is the Fed's interest rate forecast, which is the anonymous interest rate targets of Fed officials presented in a chart format.

    Some Fed watchers expect the central bank to move its interest rate forecast forward slightly. In June, the dot plot showed two rate hikes for 2023 and none for 2022.

    "They are two Fed officials from having a half a hike and they are three Fed officials from getting a full hike penciled in" for 2022, Bank of America's Meyer said. "I think the dots will show the first hike is in 2023, but it is possible that shifts. ... I think if it shifts, the problem the Fed will have is to communicate the difference."

    Meyer said Powell has emphasized the asset purchase program's unwinding is not linked to the Fed's move to raise interest rates from the current near-zero level. If the interest rate forecast moves forward, it could suggest to the market that the Fed will wind down its bond program and immediately move on to a rate hike. The bond program is slowly expected to be unwound over the course of six months or more.

    September slump

    The major indexes ended the past week with slight losses. The S&P 500 was down 0.6% for the week, closing Friday's session at 4,432.99. The Dow lost 0.1% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 0.5% for the week to 15,043.97. The 10-year Treasury yield was higher on the week, at 1.37%.

    https://i.imgur.com/u10YCtQ.png

    September as a whole has been weak for the stock market, with the S&P 500 down just under 2%.

    J.P. Morgan technical strategists, however, do not see the big downdraft expected by some analysts.

    They note the S&P 500 has held above 4,420 to 4,435 trend support levels and another key level of 4,367.

    "As a base-case view, we believe the index holds that support and rallies in the fourth quarter. Even if the market breaks support and sees a near-term increase in realized volatility, we continue to think the 4238-4257 summer-time breakout area will put a floor under the index," the strategists wrote.

    Earnings

    Investors continue to watch for earnings warnings ahead of the third-quarter reporting season, which starts in mid-October. The concern is that supply chain risks will continue to crimp revenues and could hurt margins.

    There are a few companies reporting in the week ahead, and they should comment on supply chains and rising costs. FedEx reports Tuesday; General Mills releases earnings Wednesday, and both Nike and Costco report Thursday.

    Nike is being watched closely since it is expected that supply chain issues will hurt its profits and it could continue to have issues getting products to sell.

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    S&P Sectors for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!]())

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

    S&P 500 down 25 of 31 during week after September quarterly options expiration, average loss 0.94%

    The week after September options expiration week, next week, has a dreadful history of declines most notably since 1990. The week after September quarterly options expiration week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 31 years. Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just four times: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses.

    Full stats are in the above sea-of-red table. Average losses since 1990 are even worse; DJIA –1.03%, S&P 500 –0.94%, NASDAQ –0.88% and a sizable –1.50% for Russell 2000. End-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the most likely explanation for this trend as managers trim summer holdings and position for the fourth quarter.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Mid-Pack Performance for Post-Election Year Octobers

    October often evokes fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in percentage terms. March 2020 now holds the dubious honor of producing the worst, second and third worst DJIA weekly point declines. The term "Octoberphobia" has been used to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout and don't get whipsawed if it happens.

    Post-election year October's are neither great nor bad since 1953, ranking mid-pack across DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 1000 with gains averaging from 0.9% (DJIA & Russell 1000) to 1.4% (NASDAQ). DJIA has the best historical odds for gains having advanced in 12 of the last 17 post-election year Octobers. Despite the best average gain, NASDAQ actually has the worst record, declining in 6 of the last 12 post-election year Octobers. A 12.8% gain in 2001 boosts its average. Should a meaningful decline materialize in October it is likely to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for any depressed technology and small-cap shares.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Buy Yom Kippur, Sell Passover

    Happy Jewish New Year 5782! May it be a sweet year for you all! As we informed you early this month the market tends to exhibit weakness during the Jewish High Holy days from Rosh Hashanah to Yom Kippur. Perhaps it is the market's annual repentance for its own sins that drives the market lower over the years during the ten days of repentance or the days of awe as they are often referred. This trade ends tomorrow on Yom Kippur, September 16, but as of today's close DJIA is down about 0.8% from the close on Rosh Hashanah.

    We attribute this perennial pullback to the fact that market liquidity drops as many market participants step away from the market and likely square positions ahead of these ten days. These days of awe also land during the seasonally weak end of Q3/beginning of Q4 period as fund managers restructure portfolios and prepare for the October 31 mutual fund deadline. This has made September the worst month of the year and contributed to the phenomenon of Octoberphobia.

    But there is a flipside to this trade. Buy Yom Kippur, Sell Passover. This has an even greater accuracy ratio than Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur up 72% of the time with average gains of 7%. And as I am sure our followers will realize this trade get a big boost from seasonal market strength during Q4 and Q1 and of course the Best Six Months of the Year November-April.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Insurance Suddenly a Concern For Small Businesses

    In addition to the various indices regarding small business conditions, the NFIB also surveys firms on what they see as their most pressing issue. In August, by far the most common issue among respondents was labor-related. A record 28% reported quality of labor as the biggest issue; up 2 percentage points versus July. Another 8% reported cost of labor as their biggest issue which was slightly lower than July. On a combined basis, the 36% reporting either cost or quality of labor as their biggest issue was the joint highest reading on record; tying August and November 2019.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Especially over the past several election cycles, the results of the NFIB survey have tended to be impacted by politics. For example, over the past few presidencies, when a Republican is in office there has been a lower percentage of respondents reporting either taxes or government red tap as their biggest issue and vice versa when a Democrat is in office. That combined reading has now completely reversed the uptick following the election of President Biden as labor concerns have increasingly come into focus.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    While government-related problems are still the second biggest concern(s) on a combined basis, there have been some other notable moves this month. The percentage of respondents reporting inflation as their biggest issue rose back up to the pandemic high of 13% this month. The Great Recession was the only other period that has seen as elevated a share of respondents seeing price increases as their biggest issue. Additionally, that excludes those reporting cost of labor as an issue.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    As for what the rise in Inflation as a problem may have borrowed from, one of the most notable has been competition from big business. The reading has seen a gradual decline since the end of 2019, and now at only 5%, it is tied with several months between September 2009 and September 2013 for the lowest reading on record.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Why Evergrande Isn't The Next Lehman

    Chinese property developer Evergrande's liquidity crisis has sparked fear and massive selling in Chinese property stocks over the past several weeks. The big question is could this be the first domino to fall, sparking a systemic risk scenario, similar to when Lehman Brothers went under 13 years ago this week? The good news is we don't think so, but we'll get to that later.

    With more than $300 billion in liabilities and only $15 billion in cash on hand, Evergrande is currently the world's most indebted real estate developer. Worries are mounting that starting next week it won't be able to pay $84 billion of interest due (according to Bloomberg), along with potentially missing a principal payment on at least one of its loans.

    With Evergrande's share price down more than 80% this year, investors are clearly voting with their pocketbooks, while the chart below shows the pressure its dollar bonds have been under as well, at deeply distressed levels to the tune of 28 cents on the dollar recently.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Multiple downgrades have happened the past two weeks, and some rating agencies are noting that an outright default is probable. Should this happen, what could the fallout be? With 1,300 real estate projects in 280 cities in China, could China's communist government intervene to avoid a messy default? So far that answer has been a resounding no, with the company instead looking to banks and other creditors to help the impact of a default.

    The bad news keeps coming, as yesterday, Evergrande suspended trading of it's onshore corporate bonds, after yet another downgrade, taking it one step closer to restructuring or default. So is Evergrande China's version of Lehman Brothers? Here are three reasons we don't think so.

    • First, the dollar bonds will likely get restructured, but most of the debt is in global mutual funds, ETFs, and some Chinese companies and not banks or other important financial institutions. Remember, Lehman Brothers was held on nearly all other financial institution's books, so not nearly as many institutions will be impacted by this versus Lehman.
    • Secondly, we think the odds do favor the Chinese communist government will get involved should there be a default. They are holding out as of now, but the fallout could be too great for them to avoid intervening.
    • Finally, Evergrande has tangible assets that can be sold off to settle financial obligations. Their assets aren't great and creditors know that the company is in financial trouble , so the value of its assets aren't likely worth as much as they think but it will still help settle some debts. Remember, Lehman didn't have hard assets it could sell off whereas Evergrande does.

    "Although the impact from Evergrande's liquidity crisis is enormous, the good news is the fallout hasn't started to spillover to other markets," explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "Short-term funding markets are acting just fine in China thus far; remember, it was the money markets in the U.S. that first started to show cracks in the system in early 2008, well before the wheels fell off."

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, China's money markets aren't showing any signs of systemic risk. These tend to be the canary in the coal mine, and the fallout appears to be fairly contained as of now.

    LPL Research downgraded our view on emerging markets to negative from neutral last month, due to concerns over China's regulatory crackdowns and heightened political risk. Now with Evergrande's liquidity crisis in the mix, we continue to recommend an underweight to emerging markets in portfolios.

    This is a very fluid situation and one that could clearly change on a dime. Although the Chinese communist government has avoided helping Evergrande so far, we think the odds do favor some type of eventual bailout to limit the ripple effect from a potential default. We will continue to watch the action in the short-term lending markets for clues if this is spiraling into something larger.

    Retail Sales Surprise To The Upside

    U.S. consumers shocked economists in August with their willingness to spend in the face of recent jitters over the economic outlook.

    This morning, the U.S. Census Bureau released August retail sales data showing overall retail sales grew 0.7% month-over-month vs. a consensus forecast for a 0.7% drop, while retail sales ex autos and gas rose 2% month-over-month vs. a consensus forecast for no change. Auto sales remained under pressure because of supply chain bottlenecks and higher prices, accounting for the large gulf in the numbers. The big beats come on the heels of disappointing July data, which received additional negative revisions, taking a small bit of the shine off August's numbers.

    Nonetheless, the spending resilience shown in this report is receiving an overwhelmingly early positive response, as economic releases in recent weeks have generally been surprising to the downside. COVID-19's resurgence in recent months is surely to blame for a significant portion of the lowered expectations, but consumers have also been forced to contend with rising prices, severe weather events, lukewarm payroll gains, and cuts to enhanced unemployment benefits.

    "There have been several reasons to question the consumer outlook recently," explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "And yet, the old mantra 'never bet against the U.S. consumer' continues to ring true. This has been a volatile series of late, but we look for the consumer to continue powering this economy well into the future."

    As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, retail sales ticked significantly higher in August following a difficult July.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The familiar theme of goods over services consumption seen during prior virus flare-ups is evident in this report, as well as a back-to-school boost. General merchandise stores (3.5%) and nonstore (online) retailers (5.3%) showed large monthly boosts, reversing a disappointing July. In addition, furniture and home furnishing stores rose nicely (3.7%). Meanwhile, food services and drinking places (0.0%), an in-person segment most impacted by virus caution, held steady against forecasts for a decline, while volatile electronics and appliance stores (-3.1%) showed weakness.

    We continue to believe that successfully tackling Delta could set up a fourth quarter growth rebound despite many strategists increasingly turning sour on the second half of the year. Cases from this latest COVID-19 wave are starting to decline, and plentiful job openings and impressive wage gains data should prevent a major income shortfall resulting from the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits. Consumers also still have elevated excess savings relative to history—in the neighborhood of $2 trillion. We continue to look for a resilient consumer, as well as for services spending to play catch-up vs. goods spending in coming months.

    Inflation Shows Signs Of Moderating

    After a crazy summer of nosebleed inflation readings, we may finally be starting to see signs of transitory inflation.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this morning, which came in softer than expected. Headline CPI climbed 0.3% month-over-month vs. estimates of 0.4%, while core CPI jumped only 0.1% month-over-month vs. estimates of 0.3%. Base effects from rolling off weak numbers a year earlier meant the year-over-year numbers were larger, but we find more usefulness in the monthly numbers until we get past the weak comparisons versus a year ago.

    To be sure, a resurgent Delta variant played a part in dampening overall inflation, and future reports will help clarify the magnitude of its effect—but, expectations were already lowered to account for this dynamic and the data still missed.

    One major takeaway from the report is that the composition of the decline suggests that the long-awaited abatement in price spikes in supply-constrained segments of the economy could be upon us. These relatively smaller parts of the overall CPI basket were driving an outsized portion of the gains this summer. Used cars and trucks (-1.5%), airfare (-9.1%), and lodging away from home (-3.3%) all declined significantly month-over-month.

    "'Transitory' has certainly been lasting longer than we originally thought it would," said LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "But the CPI components that displayed summer volatility resulting from supply chain bottlenecks are beginning to resolve themselves as expected."

    As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, used car and truck prices have experienced a drop-off after the summer surge, which saw them become the posterchild for bottleneck-driven inflation from semiconductor shortages.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    As we have highlighted in previous inflation blogs, we make special note of the trend in rents since they are viewed as "stickier" parts of the inflation outlook and count for more than 40% of the overall calculation. Moreover, the Delta variant likely has less of a direct effect on rents compared to some of the other components mentioned earlier. As such, owners' equivalent rent of primary residences rose 0.25% month-over-month, down slightly compared to the prior two months, a modest pace that is unlikely to spook even the most hawkish inflation watchers.

    Gauging the Federal Reserve's reaction function to inflation and jobs data is fast becoming the market's primary focus. Following August's weak payroll report, market participants have mostly pushed back their expected timelines for tapering asset purchases so long as inflation does not spiral out of control in the meantime. Judging by the early market reaction, today's softer inflation numbers are confirming that narrative.

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending September 17th, 2021

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.12.21

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

    Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

    • (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
    ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!]())

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

    Monday 9.20.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Monday 9.20.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 9.21.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 9.21.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 9.22.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 9.22.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 9.23.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 9.23.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 9.24.21 Before Market Open:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    Friday 9.24.21 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

    I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks. :)

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
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    Thoughts on Ginkgo Bioworks IPO on the NYSE?

    Posted: 17 Sep 2021 11:20 PM PDT

    I'm a biologist working in the synbio space (and actually had a job offer from Ginkgo a while back), so I recognize that I'm very biased when it comes to biotech stock. I'm considering buying DNA stock, but I'm wondering what the average investor thinks of Ginkgo?

    submitted by /u/Faux_Phototroph
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    Some Useful Stock Alerts I Use

    Posted: 17 Sep 2021 06:51 PM PDT

    One thing I've done over the past year and a half was try to teach myself some tools of technical analysis so I could better avoid getting my knees chopped off as happened in February-March of 2020. I started using Stockcharts.com, which is an outstanding platform that also puts out some great videos every week (the best being The Final Bar with David Keller). One thing I've enjoyed is being able to set alerts for the stock I both own and follow. Here are some of the alerts I've been using in case this is helpful to anyone. These are easy to implement using the Stockcharts alert/scan engine.

    First, Stochastics hitting 80% after being above, or 20% after being below, tells me when a stock or ETF is "letting off the gas" and will stop going up, or has started "hitting the gas" and might start to up. This is usually the first heads up that I should pay attention to something as I hate kicking myself later for not catching when things start a move.

    MACD crossovers for all the stocks I follow is also helpful. Basically I get one email alert per day and can mark which are start to dip, or rise.

    Obviously, moving average crossovers are good to get notifications for.

    Having alerts that tell me when a stock's SCTR rating (a comparison of how that stock is doing to all other stocks) 25, 50 or 75 in a bullish manner (hitting from below) or bearish (hitting from above, due to the stock falling) helps me from missing stuff returning to an uptrend after taking a break.

    I'm also testing a trend-following system by Authur Hill that uses Stochastics on a 125 day period, as a final system to tell me when I should or should not be in stocks. Any stock that hits 40 is a "sell" and 60 is a "buy," which I just use as another piece of information so I don't miss stuff.

    I have an alert that tells me if anything in the S&P 500 has a downtrend reversal. In theory, every stock returning to an uptrend will give off this signal and I can at least take note of it.

    This system isn't perfect since I get a ton of alerts right when the market opens (which is 10:30 pm for me as I'm in Japan), but it's a nice way to get an impression of what's moving and why.

    Hope this is helpful to anyone. What have you learned or improved on during the pandemic?

    submitted by /u/peterinjapan
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    What happened to Wells Fargo Around May? It was rising with the market, and then stopped. The market dropped yesterday, Wells Fargo went up.

    Posted: 18 Sep 2021 12:25 AM PDT

    I haven't been able to understand the price action of Wells Fargo. They got fined 250M a few weeks ago, their price went up—A major political figure sends a formal letter to Powell last week requesting they be broken up and banned from some of their major money sources, their price raises—Yesterday, the whole Market dropped including JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Fidelity...Wells Fargo jumps.

    Something seems off. And I can't put my finger on it.

    Sorry, had to cross post because the boterator thought I was sus.

    submitted by /u/houstoncouchguy
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    Is there an app that alerts you when a stock is starting to rise

    Posted: 18 Sep 2021 11:50 AM PDT

    Like if something is +3-5% plus in the morning and looks like it's going to be rising more

    Looking for a phone app since my phone is on me all day and can't really get updates on PC without refreshing the screen most times

    submitted by /u/Lopassss
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    I bought CANG, HIMX, and SKLZ friday. Hoping they are at or near bottoms and will be up in weeks/months. What did you buy?

    Posted: 18 Sep 2021 10:40 AM PDT

    I bought CANG, HIMX, and SKLZ friday. Hoping they are at or near bottoms and will be up in weeks/months. What did you buy?

    Anyone else recently get in on these by the way? would be disappointed if they are not up in a few weeks/months.

    submitted by /u/ArnoldisKing
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    Should I just sell my stocks or go short I'm underwater

    Posted: 18 Sep 2021 08:28 AM PDT

    I recently bought a bunch of spy and spxl thinking that the market was heading to 460-470 for sure (in spy).

    Now I see it's down and there are a bunch of news which makes me think it's going to go even lower and I am stupid for being in spxl right now I should have spxs or I should buy puts?

    There is china debt explosion could be making this like 2008 300 billion dollars. All fed officials have sold cause of "ethics" and I think this is BS. Also capital gains tax.

    submitted by /u/SuperMrTheGuy
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    Why are shipping stocks so down so much lately?

    Posted: 17 Sep 2021 09:32 PM PDT

    As we head into the holiday season, it confuses me how shipping stocks like DAC have performed recently not very well. In the last week alone, it''s been down 1.9, .75, .6, 1.59, 3.03, and 1% today.

    Shouldn't this be the peak time a stock like DAC rises? It's very confusing to me, unless people are just taking profits right now. I personally don't see why anyone would sell right now until early 2022, unless there is some news I don't know about.

    submitted by /u/BurnerBurnerBurns20
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    Thoughts on Congress stock trading

    Posted: 17 Sep 2021 04:29 PM PDT

    I'll start this by saying that I don't know loads on the topic and am posting this to learn.

    I've heard a lot of stuff about the likes of Polowski trading pre government release and am interested in knowing more about the topic and what others in this community think. As a non US resident I can't do much about it, but, surely this can't be ok and the lenience of this situation is alarming.

    Is this one of many potential flaws in the free current system, or do I not know enough about the topic?

    What are your views, and if it is true, what should be the rules implemented.

    I'll be honest, as a UK residence, there isn't much published about it from our politicians but it probably happens too. How do we ensure this kind of blatant 'insider trading is completely off the table?

    Open to all discussion and keen to learn more.

    EDIT: Fairly new to this Reddit thing, if I'm asking in the wrong place, please let me know.

    submitted by /u/Konys-mum
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    If you could choose 1 stock to buy on the dip, be realistic, with expectations, what would be the ticker, at what price and why? Share ideas

    Posted: 17 Sep 2021 07:08 PM PDT

    Good evening everyone and thank you so much for taking your time to read the post. This should be a great exercise for the community so that we can all help eachother get insight into why you would hope for a dip on a certain stock….. At what price, and what you are looking for.

    We need to try and be realistic because some readers may also look at this idea, do DD and may thank you later. By saying you hope AMZN dips to 1,500, or MRNA to 200, GOOG to 1,000. I am not sure if you are helping anyone, because I believe most would jump in too!

    Now if these are indeed a ticker you await a dip, maybe you can set a realistic price and just an idea of where it may go. It is a simple exercise, would be better of course if you actually did own it before, really would buy it back and maybe where you may see it months from now.

    I have about 1,200 tickers on 29 watch lists, so I have many to choose from. Some have never heard of this ticker and so it may help many just to get an idea.

    ZIM, I have been a trader of this since it IPO'd. The company is a cargo shipper that has absolutely beat the last 3 earnings reports badly! They reported earnings over 7 dollars recently with a 2 dollar special dividend. The stock has run to an all time high near $60…..

    I hope this dips back to 45, it was there a few weeks ago… and in a year if they keep executing this can be 75-90. They make cash and can pay dividends. Yes, rates are high now, yes ports are backed up, but they will still beat top and bottom line.

    We would like to hear from you! Thank you.

    submitted by /u/UltimateTraders
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