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    Wednesday, September 8, 2021

    Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - September 08, 2021 Investing

    Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - September 08, 2021 Investing


    Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - September 08, 2021

    Posted: 08 Sep 2021 02:02 AM PDT

    Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

    This thread is for:

    • General questions
    • Your personal commentary on markets
    • Opinion gathering on a given stock
    • Non advice beginner questions

    Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google.

    If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions.

    Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. September 08, 2021

    Posted: 08 Sep 2021 02:01 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you? What country do you live in?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
    • Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
    • And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Investors are ignoring the parallels between stocks today and ‘heady’years of 1929, 1999 and 2007

    Posted: 07 Sep 2021 09:09 AM PDT

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-ignoring-the-parallels-between-stocks-today-and-heady-years-of-1929-1999-and-2007-do-this-next-says-strategist-11631013007?siteid=yhoof2

    1. The S&P 500 is trading at a lofty 22.5 times forward earnings and its price-to-sales ratio of 3.1 times is far costlier than in 2000. The Nasdaq-100 tracking QQQ exchange-traded fund QQQ, 0.14% is trading at a 70% premium to its 200-week moving average, the biggest since 1999/2000.
    2. "Blank-check" or special-purpose acquisition companies where investors have no idea what the investment will be. "The last time SPACs were as big as they are today? That's right 1928/1929," said the strategist.
    3. Leverage highs. Similar to 1920 and 2000, margin debt has shot to new highs, which is fine until it starts heading the other way. It has recently started to unwind and if that keeps going, markets have a problem
    4. 4. Cryptocurrencies. Maley said he's bullish longer-term on cryptos, but is concerned about "froth," given a 1,000% gain for bitcoin since the Federal Reserve's massive quantitative easing program began in 2020, with Ethereum up 3,400%.
    5. 5. Individual investors make up 20% of average daily volume for stocks, twice the level of two years ago. Many big market tops of the past — 1929, 1999/2000 — were marked by big jumps in investor activity.
    6. 6. From 1998 to 2000, lots of companies with zero earnings saw shares shoot higher and investors pile in, and Maley sees parallels with `so-called "meme" stocks of today.
    submitted by /u/stickman07738
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    China Evergrande bonds suspended as prices plunge. A debt crisis could send shockwaves through China's banking system.

    Posted: 08 Sep 2021 02:40 AM PDT

    https://www.reuters.com/business/china-evergrande-bonds-suspended-prices-slump-2021-09-06/

    SHANGHAI, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Bonds issued by indebted developer China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) slumped on Monday after a ratings downgrade led to restrictions on their use as collateral, prompting China's stock exchanges to halt trade.

    The Shanghai Stock Exchange said in a statement that it had temporarily suspended trading in China Evergrande Group's 6.98% July 2022 corporate bond following "abnormal fluctuations." The exchange had also suspended trading in the bond on Friday.

    Shanghai exchange data showed the bonds sliding more than 25% to a low of 40.18 yuan after the resumption of trade on Monday afternoon. The company's 5.9% May 2023 Shenzhen-traded bond , which was also suspended, fell more than 35% after trading resumed.

    The slump in bond prices comes after a ratings downgrade erased the bonds' value for use in pledged repo trading.

    Rules governing pledged repos require bonds issued after April 7, 2017 and pledged as collateral to be rated AAA, while issuers must have credit ratings of AA or higher. Bonds issued before that date - including Evergrande's July 2022 bond - need only be rated AA or higher.

    China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co (CCXI) downgraded Evergrande and its onshore bonds to AA from AAA on Thursday, and placed the company and its bonds on a watchlist for further downgrades.

    On Friday, China Securities Depository and Clearing Co. (CSDC) reduced the "conversion ratio" of the July 2022 bond to zero, effective Sept. 7. Other Evergrande bonds were not included in CSDC's table of conversion ratios on Friday as they no longer qualified for inclusion.

    The conversion ratio determines leverage limits for repo financing given a specific bond pledged as collateral. CSDC is owned by the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.

    A director at a local brokerage said that the reduction in the conversion ratio was a "grey rhino" - a highly obvious yet ignored threat. "It was bound to happen."

    Evergrande declined to comment. But in a statement on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Monday, it acknowledged the impact of the rating downgrade on the bonds' use as pledged repo collateral. It said the bonds had previously been deemed appropriate only for qualified institutional investors, and the downgrade had no impact on investor suitability.

    Worries surrounding Evergrande, which has been scrambling to raise funds to pay lenders and suppliers, have grown into broader concerns that a debt crisis could send shockwaves through China's banking system.

    submitted by /u/cefpodoxime
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    During periods of world and market strangeness/unpredictability should one prefer to divert their income away from a 401k so that they have more control and ability to pull out during a market crash?

    Posted: 08 Sep 2021 02:59 AM PDT

    At the moment I am investing 50% of my income into my 401k with the intention of maxing out for the year, but I was just thinking that if there was a market crash, I am not sure what options would be available to me in order to pull out of the market (my company is using fidelity). Whereas if the funds were more fully under my control, I could set stop loss orders and/or immediately sell off so that my portfolio doesn't just tank in a week.

    I know the conventional wisdom is to set it and forget it and max out the 401k if you are able, but since the world has been so strange lately, who knows what's in the pipeline and because of this it might be better to retain more control during this period? What do you all think?

    submitted by /u/porungas
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    Realistic average anual return over decades

    Posted: 08 Sep 2021 02:54 AM PDT

    Hello everyone, I am trying to do some calcs and figure out how much money would I need to get myself some early retirement or at least partial.

    I was wondering what´s realistic anual return on stock market over, let´s say, 30 years period.

    For example CNDX gives yearly 20% back, IWDA 10% the last decade, googling gave me back 5-7% as realistic.

    I think 5% can be truly obtainable in that timespan, considering I would get either IWDA or CNDX or other equivalent ETF. Do you think that is underestimated from my side and 7 is closer to truth?

    submitted by /u/ZoomsterVK
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    Index Funds versus actively managed funds

    Posted: 07 Sep 2021 11:24 PM PDT

    I have always strongly believed in investing through broad based index funds / etfs as the best investment strategy. I recently read however that investment into Actively Managed funds has out paced Index Funds for 7 months straight (in the UK). So much so that in the last month Actively Managed funds saw an inflow of GBP1.3 bil vs GBP 4 mil in Index Funds.

    This seems so counter intuitive particularly considering how over valued some stocks are today. Are Index Funds really losing their shine or is there something more at play here?

    submitted by /u/satan_slayer
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    Opportunities for investment in graphene development?

    Posted: 07 Sep 2021 03:28 PM PDT

    Graphene has been the next big thing in everything from construction to computing for the last decade. While its potential is obvious, manufacturing it at scale and in sizes needed has caused its adoption to be yet unrealized. It is, however, finally being manufactured at cost and quantities large enough to be used in various manufacturing processes today. Tomorrow's build did a piece on where it is currently being used with claims like mixing it into concrete can increase its strength by 20% along with other benefits. While those are no where near the space elevators we were promised, the fact that the supply is there means it will only continue to find value in manufacturing processes.

    And yet, there aren't any (that I can see) graphene manufactures listed in the American markets. There seem to be several on the LSE. This seems odd to me with the commercial potential. What is a good way to invest in this sector?

    submitted by /u/sparkplug49
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    What happens if you hold Preferred shares through bankruptcies?

    Posted: 07 Sep 2021 10:15 AM PDT

    If a company delists from a major exchange and you hold Preferred Shares of the company what happens through bankruptcy?

    If the shares delist is it just a name change with Q?

    How long does it take for the shares of the company to become worthless? months? years?

    What happens if you're a large preferred shareholder?

    Do institutional investors buy up bankruptcy shares for the benefit of dividends?

    Is there essentially any benefit at all holding preferred shares through bankruptcy?

    submitted by /u/Laroxide
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    COUPA SOFTWARE REPORTS SECOND QUARTER FISCAL 2022 FINANCIAL RESULTS

    Posted: 07 Sep 2021 02:49 PM PDT

    COUPA SOFTWARE REPORTS SECOND QUARTER FISCAL 2022 FINANCIAL RESULTS - Record Quarterly Revenues of $179 Million, 42% Year-Over-Year Growth - Quarterly Calculated Billings of $195 Million, 49% Year-Over-Year Growth - Quarterly Operating Cash Flows and Adjusted Free Cash Flows of $41 Million and $37 Million, Respectively SAN MATEO, Calif., Sept. 7, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Coupa Software (NASDAQ: COUP) today announced financial results for its second fiscal quarter ended July 31, 2021.

    Coupa Software (PRNewsfoto/Coupa Software)

    "We are proud to report another fantastic quarter where we delivered record revenue, strong calculated billings growth, and our third year of consecutive quarterly non-GAAP profitability," said Rob Bernshteyn, chairman and chief executive officer at Coupa. "Digitizing and optimizing back-office operations is being prioritized as a key strategic initiative for our customers, and the Coupa platform is critical for their ability to develop agility and adaptability in these rapidly changing times."

    Second Quarter Results:

    Total revenues were $179.2 million, an increase of 42% compared to the same period last year. Subscription revenues were $156.2 million, an increase of 40% compared to the same period last year. GAAP operating loss was $54.3 million, compared to $31.9 million for the same period last year. Non-GAAP operating income was $26.7 million, compared to $12.3 million for the same period last year. GAAP net loss attributable to Coupa Software Incorporated was $91.5 million, compared to $43.1 million for the same period last year. GAAP net loss per basic and diluted share attributable to Coupa Software Incorporated was $1.24, compared to $0.64 for the same period last year. Non-GAAP net income attributable to Coupa Software Incorporated was $20.3 million, compared to $15.2 million for the same period last year. Non-GAAP net income per diluted share attributable to Coupa Software Incorporated was $0.26, compared to $0.21 for the same period last year. Operating cash flows and adjusted free cash flows were positive $40.8 million and $36.9 million, respectively. See the section titled "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" and the reconciliation tables below for important information regarding the non-GAAP financial measures used by Coupa.

    Business Outlook:

    The following forward-looking statements reflect Coupa's expectations as of September 7, 2021.

    Third quarter of fiscal 2022:

    Total revenues are expected to be $177.0 to $178.0 million. Subscription revenues are expected to be $158.0 to $159.0 million. Professional services and other revenues are expected to be approximately $19.0 million. Non-GAAP income from operations is expected to be $6.0 to $7.0 million. Non-GAAP net income per diluted share attributable to Coupa Software Incorporated is expected to be $0.01 to $0.03 per share. Diluted weighted average share count is expected to be approximately 77.0 million shares. Full year fiscal 2­­022:

    Total revenues are expected to be $706.0 to $708.0 million. Non-GAAP income from operations is expected to be $40.0 to $41.0 million. Non-GAAP net income per diluted share attributable to Coupa Software Incorporated is expected to be $0.27 to $0.29 per share. Diluted weighted average share count is expected to be approximately 76.5 million shares. Coupa has not reconciled its expectations for non-GAAP income from operations to GAAP loss from operations, or non-GAAP net income per diluted share attributable to Coupa Software Incorporated to GAAP net loss per share attributable to Coupa Software Incorporated because certain items excluded from non-GAAP income from operations and non-GAAP net income per diluted share attributable to Coupa Software Incorporated, such as charges related to stock-based compensation expenses, amortization of acquired intangible assets, amortization of debt discount and issuance costs, gain or loss on conversion of convertible senior notes, the adjustment attributable to non-controlling interests, and related tax effects, including non-recurring income tax adjustments, cannot be reasonably calculated or predicted at this time. In addition, the effect of the anti-dilutive impact of the capped call transactions entered into in connection with the company's offerings of convertible notes in 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively, cannot be reasonably calculated or predicted at this time. The effect of these items may be significant.

    Recent Business Highlights:

    Welcomed many new customers into the Coupa community in Q2, including the following: Adastria Co., AR Holdings, Asklepios BioPharmaceutical, Cuprum, DiCE Molecules, Fairlead Integrated, FIFA, Foghorn Therapeutics, Garrett Motion, Greenstone Financial Services, Groupe Lapointe Dentaire, Imago BioSciences, JG Summit Holdings, JGC Holdings, Jubin Frères, mobilezone, Novelis, PACT Group, Progress Rail Services, ProSciento, Sasol, SCG Packaging, Schwan's Company, Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma, Suzano, Unilab, Walker & Dunlop, WestJet Airlines, and Workato. Launched Coupa App Marketplace, connecting businesses with certified, pre-built solutions to tap into a global ecosystem. Reached a milestone of more than 100 issued and pending U.S. patents. Welcomed accounting workflow automation provider FloQast to its portfolio of Coupa Ventures investments. Released its inaugural Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) report. Hosted a Smarter Together virtual event, showcasing the resilience, agility, and adaptability of the Business Spend Management community. Named to Fortune's Best Places to Work for Millennials and Best Medium Workplaces lists1. Recognized by Spend Matters in its ESG vendor profile report, highlighting how Source-to-Pay (S2P) suites address sustainability efforts2. Awarded $75,000 to 15 students in North America through its Coupa Cares scholarship and mentorship program text

    submitted by /u/PascalSiakim
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    Can someone explain this video: Inverse ETF using coin flips?

    Posted: 07 Sep 2021 11:59 AM PDT

    I'm watching this video and there's a demo using a coin flip and I'd like to write a program to demo this. I'd like someone to explain what are the bets at each step.

    @14:18

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSh8eusFYL4

    He uses a coin flip showing 10 rounds and both players get a loss of different values. Each time, the win/loss is 1/2 the prior amount.

    But here's the part I don't understand. In round one the net value of the two players is 2000, in round two, the net value is 1500.

    Each time you have a heads (except the last one) the net values for the players stays the same, every time you get a tail the net value goes down, but up for one.

    The part I don't understand is that if you run a heads/tails over a long run, it comes out near 50/50, so I'm not clear on the relationship between the two and how neither can win.

    submitted by /u/KarlJay001
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    Sell higher priced fund for same type of fund at a lower cost?

    Posted: 07 Sep 2021 11:55 AM PDT

    Apologies if this borders on a /r/personalfinance question, but i think its broad enough not to get flagged. Does it make any sense to sell off a fund at a higher price and reinvest in the same type of fund that is at a lower price? For example sell VTI and buy FZROX. In this example, any advantages beyond the zero fees of FZROX? Would the funds typically grow at the same ratio so it basically becomes a wash? Or would there be the possibility that the newer fund gains popularity and demand, increasing the price above an even ratio of growth for that type of fund? Also besides gains that would incur in the sale of the one fund.

    submitted by /u/crawdad101
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