Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - September 04, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - September 04, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. September 04, 2021
- When will the economy return to "normal"?
- A Canadian trust is Likely Accelerating the World's Uranium Shortage.
- Possible to redeem old paper-based shares?
- Best moving/speculative ETFs?
- Casino Stocks Are Sizzling After Fierce Covid Downturn
- What are the best means of accessing leverage in tax advantaged accounts?
- What are your favorite foreign companies/ADRs?
- Fundamental Analyst of reddit, how should I go about predicting this companies future?
- Best performer over 30 years of the extended market?
- Any real believers in Michael Burry’s predictions on index funds?
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - September 04, 2021 Posted: 04 Sep 2021 02:02 AM PDT Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. September 04, 2021 Posted: 04 Sep 2021 02:01 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| When will the economy return to "normal"? Posted: 04 Sep 2021 12:14 AM PDT Everywhere I go I see price increases, places state their disributor increased the prices. For example, theres a special toothpaste I use from my local dentist, it used to cost $12, now its $20. The prices of used cars have skyrocketed. The local motorcycle dealers cannot get any stock and I am unable to buy a bike, as everything is sold immedaitley. All used veichles are selling for ridiclous prices. Everything seems disrupted. There are wanted signs everywhere for labor. When do you suspect production of goods and services return to normal to meet demand? Do you expect a change in QE or increase in interest rates? Do you suspect the production side of the economy to rebound and meet demand (and when?) to cease the current price gouging and increased costs of goods, or do you suspect this to be the new normal? [link] [comments]  |
| A Canadian trust is Likely Accelerating the World's Uranium Shortage. Posted: 03 Sep 2021 01:20 PM PDT Edit: I just want to note upfront, I'm not advocating you go out and buy Uranium miners or trust/futures etc. My purpose is to share what I think is an interesting study in reflexivity / market behavior. There's something funky going on in the Uranium market. On the 17th of August, Uranium prices started climbing, and they've been climbing every day since. Interestingly, nothing of note around nuclear power has come out since then. Just rising Uranium prices and analyst upgrades for mining companies. Feel free to correct me if you know otherwise. For some background, there's been a perpetual shortage of Uranium production in the world. The total stockpile of uranium has been falling for over a decade straight. Coincidentally, the Sprott Physical Uranium trust launched an at the market equity program on the 17th. When premiums to NAV get too high, they sell more shares, which they are then obligated to spend any raised capital on acquiring uranium. I think that there shelf program is, literally, moving the market. Uranium is a relatively small and illiquid market. Total annual uranium production is in the neighborhood of 130MM pounds. Consumption is about 25% higher than that. Sprott lists their uranium stockpile on a daily basis. As of Thursday the 2nd, they had 21.8MM pounds of Uranium. Checking the Wayback machine, they had 19.8MM on Wednesday the 25th. That's an increase of 2 Million pounds in 8 days, or 250,000 lbs per day. Daily global production is only ~375,000 lbs. Sprott's trust has bought 67% of global uranium production over the last week. Volumes are accelerating, and it's possible their buying rate will increase going forward. I think we could be witnessing the beginnings of a reflexive process here. Higher uranium prices will attract more speculators, pouring more capital into the speculative acquisition of uranium needed by utilities, further driving up prices. TLDR: The Sprott Uranium Trust has bought 75% worth of the world's Uranium production over the last week, and judging by the volume, it's accelerating. Disclaimer: I'm long $SRUUF. For maximum Alpha: buying popcorn and watching the ensuing shit-show is risk free. [link] [comments]  |
| Possible to redeem old paper-based shares? Posted: 03 Sep 2021 03:17 PM PDT I have sort of a strange situation. I recently found some shares in a company that belonged to my late grandfather- literally a piece of paper, like how they used to do it in the old days (aka physical stock certificate). I'd hate to throw away something valuable on the assumption that they're worthless without checking. I searched the company name in google, and didn't see anything immediately. They might've gone bust, but (hopefully) they were acquired or merged and are still redeemable? Is there a registry or somewhere else we can query to see if we can find who to redeem them from? (I'm in Canada) [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Sep 2021 04:44 PM PDT Can't really trade many stocks due to my job. Limited to 30+ day holds, and, mainly, can't trade much in the tech sector. ETFs on the other hand are fair game and I can trade whenever. I already hold some of the more standard ETFs (VTI, etc) with an intention to hold long term, but I am looking to hopefully add some more aggressive ETFs/ETFs with higher growth potential basically to take the place of my stock holdings. Less interested in leveraged ETFs, though I do already have some of those on my radar. Thanks [link] [comments]  |
| Casino Stocks Are Sizzling After Fierce Covid Downturn Posted: 03 Sep 2021 01:57 PM PDT When it comes down to sizing the global online gambling market, "all bets are on." Grand View Research says it will grow 11.5% to $127.3 billion in 2020-2027, while The Business Research Company predicts an increase of 10.4% to $92.8 million in 2019-2023. With these estimates, gambling stocks –including those of online casinos– are roaring up. Online Gambling GrowthIt was a tough last couple of years for brick-and-mortar casinos. The American Gaming Association reports that all commercial and tribal casino properties in the U.S. closed during Covid lockdowns, with tiers 1 and 6 operating between 24% and 50% capacity upon returning to operations. However, with this reactivation and the technological advances of online betting, the gambling industry is back with a bang and has become one of the fastest-growing businesses on the planet. According to Insider Monkey, the online gambling market has reached 1.6 billion people, reigniting an industry that has seen a dramatic transformation through new technology. Play Today says that at least 80% of Americans gambled in the past year, as users rushed to online casino directories like Canada Casinos to crash the website, looking for some blazing betting fun. During the pandemic, the business not only grew in size but also witnessed some eye-catching movements in online gambling stocks, with companies like DraftKings Inc (NASDAQ:DKNG) soaring after its 2020 IPO. Also, "MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) launched its mobile betting app BetMGM in partnership with Roar Digital, LLC," Insider Monkey Reports. Stocks On The RiseThis year, 12 states in the U.S. will legalize sports betting spreading the impact to online gambling platforms. With this outlook, the famous site Gambling.com going public under the "GAMB" ticker, with a price per share estimate of 8$ –although down from $11 to $13. The company controls more than 30 websites in 13 countries, and hit nearly $28 million in revenue in 2020 and $11.5 million in the first quarter this year. Another attractive stock option within the online gambling market is Penn National Gaming Inc (NASDAQ: PENN), which was mentioned in the second quarter investor letter of Baron Funds. The letter said: "Following a 232% gain in 2020, the shares of Penn National Gaming, Inc. declined 29% in the most recent quarter and are down 13% year-to-date. At its recent price of only $73 (down from a peak price of $136 in March), we believe Penn's shares are now attractively valued." The casino firm is based in Pennsylvania boasting an $11.1 billion market capitalization. "PENN delivered a -17.98% return since the beginning of the year, while its 12-month returns are up by 32.73%. The stock closed at $70.84 per share on August 13, 2021." Brick-And-MortarAmid the economic comeback, brick-and-mortar casinos are also on the way up. According to Truist analyst Barry Jonas gave Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE:LVS) a Hold rating "and increased its price target from $43 to $38." The vaccine rollout is likely to exert a positive effect on these stocks, coupled with the company's solid earnings and optimistic forecast. Insider Monkey reports that "In the first quarter of 2021, Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE:LVS) had an EPS of $0.68, short on estimates of $0.85. The company's net revenue decreased 15.6% or $1.20 billion from the previous quarter." As for Caesars Entertainment Inc (NASDAQ:CZR), the casino leader saw a solid EPS of $2.03 in the first quarter, up from $1.80. Its revenue during the same period hit $1.7 billion, an increase of 259.2% versus the last year. "Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:CZR) has gained 131% in the past 12 months and 27% year to date." Source - https://ceo.ca/@jwolinsky/casino-stocks-are-sizzling-after-fierce-covid-downturn [link] [comments]  |
| What are the best means of accessing leverage in tax advantaged accounts? Posted: 03 Sep 2021 11:47 PM PDT These accounts vary in restrictions depending on jurisdiction, but essentially the main commonalities are limited ability to position short (long puts only), and no direct access to margin. Off the top of my head : 1) Buying deep ITM calls (eg buy a SPY 250 call, it costs approx half of SPY and returns the same dollar change but a larger percentage) Downsides : often high cost of leverage (like 5% premium to asset value), limited time horizon - if you bought march 2020 spy 250 calls for leverage a year prior you may have lost it all, while stock holders did not see any expiry 2) Buying levered instruments (3x daily etfs) downsides : volatility drag, liable to blow up in a 2008 style crisis, expense ratio 3) Buying mutual funds or other funds that use leverage on your behalf (eg PSLDX) downsides : expense ratio, limited transparency for some, often illiquid and difficult to enter or exit on short time scales 4) Borrowing money (eg line of credit, refinance mortgage) to contribute to your tax advantaged account downsides : you can lose more than just your investments(bank can come for your assets), might be screwey with contribution limits to tax advantaged accounts Are there any other methods i'm missing? Thoughts on what the best way is? I feel like it's likely deep ITM options. Eg - SPY 150C for Dec 2023 costs ~$30k rn, gives you a notional position of 45k for a leverage ratio of 1.5x. [link] [comments]  |
| What are your favorite foreign companies/ADRs? Posted: 03 Sep 2021 12:33 PM PDT (Disclaimer: I am from the U.S.) Hi r/investing folks, first time poster here. I find that investing in quality foreign companies via ADRs can be a good way to generate alpha as there are fewer eyeballs on these sort of names. I typically only invest in ADRs with good liquidity as some trade fewer than 1k shares per day. That said, what are your favorites? I can give you a couple of mine: ADYEY (Adyen N.V.) - Major fintech/payment gateway, on the level of PayPal, Square, and Stripe. From what I've read, Adyen services large multinational companies (vs. Stripe which focuses more on startups). These companies have great business models with strong network effects and a long runway for growth. A lot of people know about PYPL/SQ/Stripe already and I think Adyen flies a bit under the radar in comparison. EVVTY (Evolution AB) - Supplier of live casino services, allowing customer-facing online casinos the ability to offer real-time gameplay. Maybe you have heard of some of these burgeoning online casinos; Roobet and Duelbits are just a couple of examples. Despite the capital-intensive nature of building a live casino (setting up studio, hiring dealers, server costs, etc.), Evolution is able to spread this cost over its customer base, providing a cheaper option than what customers would be able to develop in-house. The stock may suffer over the short term as in-person casinos reopen, but longer-term I see a significant opportunity for Evolution to dominate the live casino space (with +60% EBITDA margins to boot). So, what are you're favorite foreign companies/ADRs? Would love to hear a couple sentences showcasing your thesis (though if you just want to post a bunch of tickers, that's fine as well haha). [link] [comments]  |
| Fundamental Analyst of reddit, how should I go about predicting this companies future? Posted: 03 Sep 2021 08:53 PM PDT Hey all! I have an assignment for my financial statement analysis class which is asking me to use Pepsico's 2020 financial statements to find anything that may point to positive future earnings and anything that may point to negative future earnings. Any suggestions on what I should be looking for in regards to a food/snack/beverage corporations financial statements? _________ Ignore__________ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PepsiCo "PepsiCo, Inc. is an American multinational food, snack, and beverage corporation headquartered in Harrison, New York, in the hamlet of Purchase. PepsiCo's business encompasses all aspects of the food and beverage market. It oversees the manufacturing, distribution, and marketing of its products. PepsiCo was formed in 1965 with the merger of the Pepsi-Cola Company and Frito-Lay, Inc. PepsiCo has since expanded from its namesake product Pepsi Cola to an immensely diversified range of food and beverage brands. The largest and most recent acquisition was Tropicana Products in 1998 and the Quaker Oats Company in 2001, which added the Gatorade brand to the Pepsi portfolio. As of January 2021 the company possesses 23 brands that have over $1 billion in sales.[2] Pepsico has operations all around the world and its products were distributed across more than 200 countries, resulting in annual net revenues of over $70 billion. Based on net revenue, profit, and market capitalization; PepsiCo is the second-largest food and beverage business in the world, behind Nestlé. PepsiCo's flagship product Pepsi Cola has been engaged in a rivalry for generations with Coca-Cola, commonly referred to as the Soda Wars. Despite Coca-Cola outselling Pepsi Cola in the United States, PepsiCo within the North American market is the largest food and beverage company by net revenue. Ramon Laguarta has been the chief executive of PepsiCo since 2018. The company's beverage distribution and bottling is conducted by PepsiCo as well as by licensed bottlers in certain regions." [link] [comments]  |
| Best performer over 30 years of the extended market? Posted: 03 Sep 2021 10:18 AM PDT Basically what class has been the better performer over the past 30-40 years? Between the Small Cap (Value, Mix, Growth) and Mid Cap (Value, mix Growth) or Extended Market (Value, Mix Growth). I was watching a video online and they had said that value in the small and mid caps out preforms since it typically companies with good balances sheets, however when I was back testing it it didn't appear going back 20 years. [link] [comments]  |
| Any real believers in Michael Burry’s predictions on index funds? Posted: 03 Sep 2021 09:53 AM PDT I have been looking into it recently and I think he has a point. Index funds are extremely overvalued because they are too popular. People do not know what actual companies they own shares in, they just expect a crazy 7/8% return in a year. People will realize this, and eventually pull their money out, which could cause a chain reaction of stock prices dropping to the point where the whole economy could collapse. And if people do not realize, they still are subject to very unfortunate consequences if the stock market crashes from other bubbles like the tech bubble. With more people investing now than ever before, a crash could be 10x more brutal with nearly 50% of americans invested (20/30% of that being directly in index funds). I also think the worst outcome we could see is the collapse of smaller businesses, since an index fund crash/pullout would hurt small businesses that receive a large part of their funding and have most company stock included in index funds. An index fund collapse could put a lot of small businesses out, but big business will survive and get even bigger. From a market analysis point that would say to invest in big business once it crashes, but from a morality stance some of these companies are already way too big (Facebook, Amazon, Google, etc). What do you all think about this? [link] [comments]  |
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